Well a Labour lead with them seems likely at some point given trend, although that wouldn't be enough.
Paradoxically, although it would only cause panic, i think Conservatives should be quite happy if YouGov continues on its seemingly inexorable path towards Labour most votes. It might be indicative that what's going on is problems with its panel and therefore undermines its results.
Anyone remember the experimental Populus "tracker" in 2010 (or was it 2005?)
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)
Better invest in a good stopper or it will spoil
Sorry, Malc. This election is not going to be a great one for the SNP.
I know that but it will be more than good enough , they will be close to 50 which is a landslide.
I reckon they'll be closer to 40 than 50. Which is, as you say, a landslide.
Be surprised if they are nearer 40 than 50 but who knows nowadays. I find it hard to believe many up here would ever vote for Tories but a lot do.
Well I don't believe that Wales figure, just for starters. The whole place seems to have jumped firmly back to Labour after that fearful Wales poll at the start of the campaign. Very very high Labour in SW too, though I can believe that more - Bristol loves Corbyn, and if the LDs are doing well in target seats in the country they must be not recovering anywhere else, meaning they will remain 3rd or 4th in many SW seats, with Labour perhaps starting to replace them as the distant second place challengers.
Following my usual practice I wish to record here that I have this evening placed a bet of £450 with BetFred on CON MOST SEATS at 1/9. If successful it is a return of £500, a profit of £50. If unsuccessful it is a return of £0, a loss of £450. I will let you know how things pan out.
The betslip is in my usual white envelope and will serve as a bookmark until Friday.
How many more U bends can May make: The Conservatives have U-turned on a flagship pledge to build “a new generation” of social housing announced in their manifesto just weeks ago.
Theresa May personally promised her policy would deliver “a constant supply of new homes for social rent”, but her housing minister has now admitted planned homes would in fact be of a significantly less affordable type.
The embarrassing admission represents the second about-turn on a Conservative manifesto pledge, after the damaging furore around the “dementia tax”.
Tbh that is better - what this country needs is quality new homes. The better the homes, the better.
You miss the point , they will be private profit making ones , the Tories don't do social.
How many more U bends can May make: The Conservatives have U-turned on a flagship pledge to build “a new generation” of social housing announced in their manifesto just weeks ago.
Theresa May personally promised her policy would deliver “a constant supply of new homes for social rent”, but her housing minister has now admitted planned homes would in fact be of a significantly less affordable type.
The embarrassing admission represents the second about-turn on a Conservative manifesto pledge, after the damaging furore around the “dementia tax”.
Tbh that is better - what this country needs is quality new homes. The better the homes, the better.
I am increasingly becoming convinced that the major housebuilders are not delivering 'better' homes.
I've just come back from a walk around Longstanton in Cambridgeshire. Immediately north of the village is the old Oakington airfield, which is now (slowly) becoming the new village of Northstowe. I had a look around the handful of completed houses and, with one exception, they look pretty poor. And being the first houses on the village, more care would have been put into them than the thousandth.
The Labour surge does finally seem to have stopped, but there is a little extra hope for Labour - I notice that YouGov has the LibDems at 9% - Labour should definitely have its eye on 2-3% of those voters in the final week.
What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.
That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...
(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.
44% might be enough for May to get the most votes ever, if turnout is around 70%.
Have you noticed people talking about this election? I haven't. I'm going for 61-62%.
I mentioned this yesterday. Two trips to supposed ultra marginal Bath, very little signs of an election, even on the university campus. Certainly no sign of hoards of Moamentumers.
It was only when I headed out into the sticks was I assaulted by wall to wall Jacob Rees Mogg placards spoiling the view of the nice countryside.
You must have strayed into north somerset where he is the candidate seen by friends out canvassing in his rolls Royce last week. Apparently he goes to church in a chauffeured limo because he the wife and five children don't fit in the roller
The Labour surge does finally seem to have stopped, but there is a little extra hope for Labour - I notice that YouGov has the LibDems at 9% - Labour should definitely have its eye on 2-3% of those voters in the final week.
What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.
That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...
(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.
44% might be enough for May to get the most votes ever, if turnout is around 70%.
Have you noticed people talking about this election? I haven't. I'm going for 61-62%.
I mentioned this yesterday. Two trips to supposed ultra marginal Bath, very little signs of an election, even on the university campus. Certainly no sign of hoards of Moamentumers.
It was only when I headed out into the sticks was I assaulted by wall to wall Jacob Rees Mogg placards spoiling the view of the nice countryside.
You must have strayed into north somerset where he is the candidate seen by friends out canvassing in his rolls Royce last week. Apparently he goes to church in a chauffeured limo because he the wife and five children don't fit in the roller
Yes I know it isn't in Bath that Mogg is standing. I meant in the ultra marginal Bath very very little (even on the uni campus...it was two pathetic looking tables, one for Tories, one for Lib Dem, no Labour), in Mogg safe seat it was bloody wall to wall with his stuff.
The Labour surge does finally seem to have stopped, but there is a little extra hope for Labour - I notice that YouGov has the LibDems at 9% - Labour should definitely have its eye on 2-3% of those voters in the final week.
What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.
That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...
(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.
44% might be enough for May to get the most votes ever, if turnout is around 70%.
Have you noticed people talking about this election? I haven't. I'm going for 61-62%.
I have noticed people talking about it. But I'm also going for low 60s.
The turnout trend has been going up. There will be a residual turnout from the Brexit referendum and there will be the extra Corbynistas, so I amgoing for a small increase on last time: 68%
How many more U bends can May make: The Conservatives have U-turned on a flagship pledge to build “a new generation” of social housing announced in their manifesto just weeks ago.
Theresa May personally promised her policy would deliver “a constant supply of new homes for social rent”, but her housing minister has now admitted planned homes would in fact be of a significantly less affordable type.
The embarrassing admission represents the second about-turn on a Conservative manifesto pledge, after the damaging furore around the “dementia tax”.
Tbh that is better - what this country needs is quality new homes. The better the homes, the better.
I am increasingly becoming convinced that the major housebuilders are not delivering 'better' homes.
I've just come back from a walk around Longstanton in Cambridgeshire. Immediately north of the village is the old Oakington airfield, which is now (slowly) becoming the new village of Northstowe. I had a look around the handful of completed houses and, with one exception, they look pretty poor. And being the first houses on the village, more care would have been put into them than the thousandth.
Housebuilders are taking the p*ss.
I know three couples who have purchased new builds in the last two years. All of them have had problems, some more significant than others.
Well I don't believe that Wales figure, just for starters. The whole place seems to have jumped firmly back to Labour after that fearful Wales poll at the start of the campaign. Very very high Labour in SW too, though I can believe that more - Bristol loves Corbyn, and if the LDs are doing well in target seats in the country they must be not recovering anywhere else, meaning they will remain 3rd or 4th in many SW seats, with Labour perhaps starting to replace them as the distant second place challengers.
I don't believe the Labour figure in Scotland. Kezia, to my astonishment, has had a good campaign when she is not explaining that Corbyn didn't really mean what he said.
My biggest fear about Mrs May's crap performance is that she might have undone all the good work of Ruth Davidson.
I suspect we'll be seeing a lot more "will Ruth be the next Tory leader?" articles after next Thursday.
If May does poorly to middling and SCON advance well, probably, at first. As has been advanced although it would be interesting to see what she might do, but is probably a bad idea.
But she is young, with plenty of time ahead. So if she is ever asked I guess she should just say she is planning to be First Minister (no laughing at the back, it's a theoretical aspiration even though it won't happen) and that is all she is focused on, without ruling out transitioning to Westminster at some point. After all, she could be First Minister (I said no laughing, it's just a hypothetical!) for a spell, then move on to Westminster to advance the cause there.
Forgetting about polls and using the paper favourite from the current constituency betting,I get Con at 378,Lab at 189,SNP 49,LDs 9,Pl 3.Outwith NI,an overall Tory majority of 128.
The Labour surge does finally seem to have stopped, but there is a little extra hope for Labour - I notice that YouGov has the LibDems at 9% - Labour should definitely have its eye on 2-3% of those voters in the final week.
What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.
That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...
(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.
44% might be enough for May to get the most votes ever, if turnout is around 70%.
Have you noticed people talking about this election? I haven't. I'm going for 61-62%.
Not really. But if it's 61-62% there probably won't be any sort of youth boost for Corbyn.
My biggest fear about Mrs May's crap performance is that she might have undone all the good work of Ruth Davidson.
I suspect we'll be seeing a lot more "will Ruth be the next Tory leader?" articles after next Thursday.
If May does poorly to middling and SCON advance well, probably, at first. As has been advanced although it would be interesting to see what she might do, but is probably a bad idea.
But she is young, with plenty of time ahead. So if she is ever asked I guess she should just say she is planning to be First Minister (no laughing at the back, it's a theoretical aspiration even though it won't happen) and that is all she is focused on, without ruling out transitioning to Westminster at some point. After all, she could be First Minister (I said no laughing, it's just a hypothetical!) for a spell, then move on to Westminster to advance the cause there.
At some point, possibly the next election, the SNP will lose their majority. They could try to form a coalition, carry on as a minority government, or there could be a coalition not involving the SNP. So not entirely theoretical.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)
In answer to your Facebook question, yes, that's the Corbynista girlfriend sitting on my Camden balcony....
Iff true, that would mean that seat has had MPs from three different parties in a little over 2 years.
Hubris is always a danger but I do think that seat is done. Get the troops in Aberdeen South and Angus.
I want Moray and Perth & North Perthshire to go blue.
Not only would it be profitable, it would be hilarious.
Full disclosure, I stuck some money on David Mundell losing as an anti-hubris bet.
I think they are both very big asks. The SNP must be strong favourites for both. The 3 border seats, West Aberdeenshire and (probably) East Renfrewshire. After that Aberdeen South, Perth and North Perthshire, Edinburgh SW, Moray even Gordon are all chances but all odds against. Can they land more than one?
I think that Edin SW and Aberdeen S are both just as likely as E Renfrew and all much more likely than the rest. Considering that the SNP are about 6-8% down in the polls compared to 2015 the Tories need to get 42+% to have a chance in Perth or in Moray whilst the winning line in the other 3 seats is likely to be something like 37 or so which is much more likely with tactical voting. If it is clear which party is best placed to beat the Nats I expect all 3 to fall to either Lab or Con. Re the subject of tactical voting I can totally get 20% of people of Scotland using their vote tactically but it seems really high for E&W. If it does happen the LD may, just may out preform expectations as I think they could benefit in a number of seats.
I don't believe the Labour figure in Scotland. Kezia, to my astonishment, has had a good campaign when she is not explaining that Corbyn didn't really mean what he said.
It looks like there is a leakage from SNP to Labour for this election at least. I can't see any seats where Labour could easily capitalise. Maybe Edinburgh North & Leith, East Renfrewshire (they would compete with the Tories for that seat and so let the SNP win in that case probably), East Lothian we have mentioned a few times, and just possibly Paisley & Renfrewshire South (Mhairi Black's seat) and Midlothian. But they are long shots.
Only Party suggesting tax is increased to protect millionaires' wealth is Labour...
Perception perception perception. As Farron put it, May might be outside your house, sizing up your house right now!
Has anyone heard anyone but a cynical opponent suggest that? Just spent the week at Olympia with asset-rich baby boomers. To a man (and woman!) they supported it...
How many more U bends can May make: The Conservatives have U-turned on a flagship pledge to build “a new generation” of social housing announced in their manifesto just weeks ago.
Theresa May personally promised her policy would deliver “a constant supply of new homes for social rent”, but her housing minister has now admitted planned homes would in fact be of a significantly less affordable type.
The embarrassing admission represents the second about-turn on a Conservative manifesto pledge, after the damaging furore around the “dementia tax”.
Tbh that is better - what this country needs is quality new homes. The better the homes, the better.
I am increasingly becoming convinced that the major housebuilders are not delivering 'better' homes.
I've just come back from a walk around Longstanton in Cambridgeshire. Immediately north of the village is the old Oakington airfield, which is now (slowly) becoming the new village of Northstowe. I had a look around the handful of completed houses and, with one exception, they look pretty poor. And being the first houses on the village, more care would have been put into them than the thousandth.
Housebuilders are taking the p*ss.
I know three couples who have purchased new builds in the last two years. All of them have had problems, some more significant than others.
There will always be snagging required in any new house. Problems occur, and mistakes are made. However the stories I hear- and the things I see - point to much more significant issues.
As an example: a couple buy a new-build house with a flying lounge (the lounge is above the parking spaces and connected to the house next door). During the first winter, the room gets extremely cold even with heating on. They get the builders in, who claim everything is perfect and insulated as per the law. They get an independent surveyor in, who drills holes in the walls and floor only to discover there is no insulation. The surveyor also found several other significant issues. They then had to suffer a long period of disruption whilst the builder went in and did the work they should have done in the first place. Several other neighbours heard about this, and each one had insulation missing.
You don't 'forget' to put insulation in the walls, if it is required (I'm dubious about filing existing cavity walls with insulation, but it should be okay with buildings designed for it).
+ many other stories. I heard a figure for how many thousands builders set aside for after-sale work on a new-build house, and it was large (also unofficial, so i won't say it here). They'd be better off getting it right in the first place.
@TheScreamingEagles - That's why Sam Wallace is the football correspondent for the Telegraph. I sat next to him on the flight back from Naples in 2013, nice guy.
Can we hurry up with the other polls, so I can then throw my dinner up with worry and crack on with downing a bottle of something alcoholic in order to enable me to get to sleep?
Well I don't believe that Wales figure, just for starters. The whole place seems to have jumped firmly back to Labour after that fearful Wales poll at the start of the campaign. Very very high Labour in SW too, though I can believe that more - Bristol loves Corbyn, and if the LDs are doing well in target seats in the country they must be not recovering anywhere else, meaning they will remain 3rd or 4th in many SW seats, with Labour perhaps starting to replace them as the distant second place challengers.
On the basis of those figures the Tories would make big gains in the North West, Scotland, Wales, the North East, Yorkshire and Humber and the East Midlands and smaller gains in the West Midlands and a handful of gains in London. Labour would make gains in the South West and Labour and the LDs would make gains in the South East
My biggest fear about Mrs May's crap performance is that she might have undone all the good work of Ruth Davidson.
I suspect we'll be seeing a lot more "will Ruth be the next Tory leader?" articles after next Thursday.
If May does poorly to middling and SCON advance well, probably, at first. As has been advanced although it would be interesting to see what she might do, but is probably a bad idea.
But she is young, with plenty of time ahead. So if she is ever asked I guess she should just say she is planning to be First Minister (no laughing at the back, it's a theoretical aspiration even though it won't happen) and that is all she is focused on, without ruling out transitioning to Westminster at some point. After all, she could be First Minister (I said no laughing, it's just a hypothetical!) for a spell, then move on to Westminster to advance the cause there.
At some point, possibly the next election, the SNP will lose their majority. They could try to form a coalition, carry on as a minority government, or there could be a coalition not involving the SNP. So not entirely theoretical.
Iff true, that would mean that seat has had MPs from three different parties in a little over 2 years.
Hubris is always a danger but I do think that seat is done. Get the troops in Aberdeen South and Angus.
I want Moray and Perth & North Perthshire to go blue.
Not only would it be profitable, it would be hilarious.
Full disclosure, I stuck some money on David Mundell losing as an anti-hubris bet.
I think they are both very big asks. The SNP must be strong favourites for both. The 3 border seats, West Aberdeenshire and (probably) East Renfrewshire. After that Aberdeen South, Perth and North Perthshire, Edinburgh SW, Moray even Gordon are all chances but all odds against. Can they land more than one?
I think that Edin SW and Aberdeen S are both just as likely as E Renfrew and all much more likely than the rest. Considering that the SNP are about 6-8% down in the polls compared to 2015 the Tories need to get 42+% to have a chance in Perth or in Moray whilst the winning line in the other 3 seats is likely to be something like 37 or so which is much more likely with tactical voting. If it is clear which party is best placed to beat the Nats I expect all 3 to fall to either Lab or Con. Re the subject of tactical voting I can totally get 20% of people of Scotland using their vote tactically but it seems really high for E&W. If it does happen the LD may, just may out preform expectations as I think they could benefit in a number of seats.
Its really hard to call. The Tories won more votes in Perth + North Tayside in the locals just a couple of weeks ago. And the other Unionist parties are non players there. In Edinburgh, for example, the position is much more complicated.
@JossiasJessop - that's appalling. One friend told me that a neighbour looked behind a radiator to find that the plastering hadn't been finished and there was a big hole in the wall! Another friend has had problems with their bathrooms because the dehumidifier system had simply not been set up causing the ceiling to rot.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)
In answer to your Facebook question, yes, that's the Corbynista girlfriend sitting on my Camden balcony....
This months one or last months?
This month's and last month's. This one's a keeper. Depends if she'll keep an old scrote like me, is more the question.
I take it you're are going to take the precaution of not being with her on election night? Just in case there's a Tory landslide and you get a bit too excited about it...
Well I don't believe that Wales figure, just for starters. The whole place seems to have jumped firmly back to Labour after that fearful Wales poll at the start of the campaign. Very very high Labour in SW too, though I can believe that more - Bristol loves Corbyn, and if the LDs are doing well in target seats in the country they must be not recovering anywhere else, meaning they will remain 3rd or 4th in many SW seats, with Labour perhaps starting to replace them as the distant second place challengers.
On the basis of those figures the Tories would make big gains in the North West, Scotland, Wales, the North East, Yorkshire and Humber and the East Midlands and smaller gains in the West Midlands and a handful of gains in London. Labour would make gains in the South West and Labour and the LDs would make gains in the South East
Anyone have the equiv subsamples for the weekend ComRes polls pre election 2015? I can put the swing into my model for a prediction...
I don't believe the Labour figure in Scotland. Kezia, to my astonishment, has had a good campaign when she is not explaining that Corbyn didn't really mean what he said.
It looks like there is a leakage from SNP to Labour for this election at least. I can't see any seats where Labour could easily capitalise. Maybe Edinburgh North & Leith, East Renfrewshire (they would compete with the Tories for that seat and so let the SNP win in that case probably), East Lothian we have mentioned a few times, and just possibly Paisley & Renfrewshire South (Mhairi Black's seat) and Midlothian. But they are long shots.
A drop of 6-8% in the SNP vote and a small rise in the Labour one would at least make quite a lot of seats marginal for the next election. Indeed it is fairly possible that after this election that in the majority of seats there is less than 10% between the top 2 parties.
My biggest fear about Mrs May's crap performance is that she might have undone all the good work of Ruth Davidson.
I suspect we'll be seeing a lot more "will Ruth be the next Tory leader?" articles after next Thursday.
If May does poorly to middling and SCON advance well, probably, at first. As has been advanced although it would be interesting to see what she might do, but is probably a bad idea.
But she is young, with plenty of time ahead. So if she is ever asked I guess she should just say she is planning to be First Minister (no laughing at the back, it's a theoretical aspiration even though it won't happen) and that is all she is focused on, without ruling out transitioning to Westminster at some point. After all, she could be First Minister (I said no laughing, it's just a hypothetical!) for a spell, then move on to Westminster to advance the cause there.
At some point, possibly the next election, the SNP will lose their majority. They could try to form a coalition, carry on as a minority government, or there could be a coalition not involving the SNP. So not entirely theoretical.
Aren't they already a minority government?
You're right! I forgotten that. The SNP are a couple of seats short of a majority. It doesn't make any difference because the SNP government isn't doing anything.
Can we hurry up with the other polls, so I can then throw my dinner up with worry and crack on with downing a bottle of something alcoholic in order to enable me to get to sleep?
Don't wait to 10. Start the bottle now. Its going to be a hell of a ride.
I know that Scotland offers betting opportunities but come on its less than 10% of the seats up so why the obsession? Seen this on other sites as well.
She still has a lead because Jeremy Corbyn said a few months ago that he didn't believe in shooting terrorists (amongst other things).
She is very lucky. Very lucky indeed.
"Not ruling out a tax rise" isn't necessarily a disastrous position to be in given the source of the large increase in Tory votes. The core anti tax vote may not be happy to hear it, but there is no way that they are going to vote Corbyn in response. Whereas many of the ex Labour (via UKIP) wobbly Brexiteers may quite like the idea...
Well I don't believe that Wales figure, just for starters. The whole place seems to have jumped firmly back to Labour after that fearful Wales poll at the start of the campaign. Very very high Labour in SW too, though I can believe that more - Bristol loves Corbyn, and if the LDs are doing well in target seats in the country they must be not recovering anywhere else, meaning they will remain 3rd or 4th in many SW seats, with Labour perhaps starting to replace them as the distant second place challengers.
On the basis of those figures the Tories would make big gains in the North West, Scotland, Wales, the North East, Yorkshire and Humber and the East Midlands and smaller gains in the West Midlands and a handful of gains in London. Labour would make gains in the South West and Labour and the LDs would make gains in the South East
Anyone have the equiv subsamples for the weekend ComRes polls pre election 2015? I can put the swing into my model for a prediction...
Iff true, that would mean that seat has had MPs from three different parties in a little over 2 years.
Hubris is always a danger but I do think that seat is done. Get the troops in Aberdeen South and Angus.
I want Moray and Perth & North Perthshire to go blue.
Not only would it be profitable, it would be hilarious.
Full disclosure, I stuck some money on David Mundell losing as an anti-hubris bet.
I think they are both very big asks. The SNP must be strong favourites for both. The 3 border seats, West Aberdeenshire and (probably) East Renfrewshire. After that Aberdeen South, Perth and North Perthshire, Edinburgh SW, Moray even Gordon are all chances but all odds against. Can they land more than one?
I think that Edin SW and Aberdeen S are both just as likely as E Renfrew and all much more likely than the rest. Considering that the SNP are about 6-8% down in the polls compared to 2015 the Tories need to get 42+% to have a chance in Perth or in Moray whilst the winning line in the other 3 seats is likely to be something like 37 or so which is much more likely with tactical voting. If it is clear which party is best placed to beat the Nats I expect all 3 to fall to either Lab or Con. Re the subject of tactical voting I can totally get 20% of people of Scotland using their vote tactically but it seems really high for E&W. If it does happen the LD may, just may out preform expectations as I think they could benefit in a number of seats.
To be fair, LibDem gains are likely to be few and far between next Thursday night, so a triple of LibDem gains in Scotland (say Edinburgh West and two of CS&ER, Fife NE, Dumbartonshire East and Argyll & Bute) may be the only thing the Yellow Peril will be celebrating.
Iff true, that would mean that seat has had MPs from three different parties in a little over 2 years.
Hubris is always a danger but I do think that seat is done. Get the troops in Aberdeen South and Angus.
I want Moray and Perth & North Perthshire to go blue.
Not only would it be profitable, it would be hilarious.
Full disclosure, I stuck some money on David Mundell losing as an anti-hubris bet.
I think they are both very big asks. The SNP must be strong favourites for both. The 3 border seats, West Aberdeenshire and (probably) East Renfrewshire. After that Aberdeen South, Perth and North Perthshire, Edinburgh SW, Moray even Gordon are all chances but all odds against. Can they land more than one?
I think that Edin SW and Aberdeen S are both just as likely as E Renfrew and all much more likely than the rest. Considering that the SNP are about 6-8% down in the polls compared to 2015 the Tories need to get 42+% to have a chance in Perth or in Moray whilst the winning line in the other 3 seats is likely to be something like 37 or so which is much more likely with tactical voting. If it is clear which party is best placed to beat the Nats I expect all 3 to fall to either Lab or Con. Re the subject of tactical voting I can totally get 20% of people of Scotland using their vote tactically but it seems really high for E&W. If it does happen the LD may, just may out preform expectations as I think they could benefit in a number of seats.
Its really hard to call. The Tories won more votes in Perth + North Tayside in the locals just a couple of weeks ago. And the other Unionist parties are non players there. In Edinburgh, for example, the position is much more complicated.
True but the deficit to overcome is much bigger without much Unionist vote to squeeze. In Edinburgh as far as I understand the Con effort is entirely in Edin SW whilst Labour and the LD are focusing in the seats next door. I really hope to see Wishart lose his seat in person next Thursday night but not convinced it is going to happen at the moment. The complete lack of any Labour campaign will help but they only got 8% last time.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)
In answer to your Facebook question, yes, that's the Corbynista girlfriend sitting on my Camden balcony....
This months one or last months?
This month's and last month's. This one's a keeper. Depends if she'll keep an old scrote like me, is more the question.
I guess that depends on how well the next book sells.
I know that Scotland offers betting opportunities but come on its less than 10% of the seats up so why the obsession? Seen this on other sites as well.
Bookies tend to price virtually all constituencies as odds on for the SNP, following results in 2011-15, so there is money to be made if you look hard enough.
Also, Scottish MPs/MSPs and journos tend to be a lot more leaky/open than English ones, according to a serious journo friend of mine. Just my theory...
She still has a lead because Jeremy Corbyn said a few months ago that he didn't believe in shooting terrorists (amongst other things).
That really is the long and short of it. Despite the fact that Corbyn has come across much better than May during the campaign, there is no escaping the fact that in the polling booth most voters will feel that Corbyn does not offer them the security they crave.
My biggest fear about Mrs May's crap performance is that she might have undone all the good work of Ruth Davidson.
I suspect we'll be seeing a lot more "will Ruth be the next Tory leader?" articles after next Thursday.
If May does poorly to middling and SCON advance well, probably, at first. As has been advanced although it would be interesting to see what she might do, but is probably a bad idea.
But she is young, with plenty of time ahead. So if she is ever asked I guess she should just say she is planning to be First Minister (no laughing at the back, it's a theoretical aspiration even though it won't happen) and that is all she is focused on, without ruling out transitioning to Westminster at some point. After all, she could be First Minister (I said no laughing, it's just a hypothetical!) for a spell, then move on to Westminster to advance the cause there.
Well, if the Conservatives do go into Opposition, there's no reason why the party leader should be an MP. It's fully accepted that Ms Sturgeon is SNP leader and she's not an MP. Just need a deputy leader to perform Commons functions.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)
In answer to your Facebook question, yes, that's the Corbynista girlfriend sitting on my Camden balcony....
This months one or last months?
This month's and last month's. This one's a keeper. Depends if she'll keep an old scrote like me, is more the question.
I guess that depends on how well the next book sells.
Its that sort of cynicism that made you a Merchant Banker. True love surely conquers all.
I know that Scotland offers betting opportunities but come on its less than 10% of the seats up so why the obsession? Seen this on other sites as well.
Bookies tend to price virtually all constituencies as odds on for the SNP, following results in 2011-15, so there is money to be made if you look hard enough.
Also, Scottish MPs/MSPs and journos tend to be a lot more leaky/open than English ones, according to a serious journo friend of mine. Just my theory...
Also more data because you can look at equivalent Holyrood seats. And also more interesting politically than England, which is boringly two party now.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)
In answer to your Facebook question, yes, that's the Corbynista girlfriend sitting on my Camden balcony....
This months one or last months?
This month's and last month's. This one's a keeper. Depends if she'll keep an old scrote like me, is more the question.
I guess that depends on how well the next book sells.
Its that sort of cynicism that made you a Merchant Banker. True love surely conquers all.
I no longer work in finance*. I'm now the CFO of one of one the world's most exciting private tech companies.
* And I was never a Merchant Banker. I was a research analyst, and then a fund manager.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)
In answer to your Facebook question, yes, that's the Corbynista girlfriend sitting on my Camden balcony....
This months one or last months?
This month's and last month's. This one's a keeper. Depends if she'll keep an old scrote like me, is more the question.
I guess that depends on how well the next book sells.
Its that sort of cynicism that made you a Merchant Banker. True love surely conquers all.
I no longer work in finance*. I'm now the CFO of one of one the world's most exciting private tech companies.
* And I was never a Merchant Banker. I was a research analyst, and then a fund manager.
Yeah but if you are going to accuse someone of being cynical Merchant Banker is surely the description and it is close enough.
I know that Scotland offers betting opportunities but come on its less than 10% of the seats up so why the obsession? Seen this on other sites as well.
Small fortunes were won and lost in the GE2015 Scottish markets !
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...
Comments
Anyone remember the experimental Populus "tracker" in 2010 (or was it 2005?)
The betslip is in my usual white envelope and will serve as a bookmark until Friday.
The man's amazing with photoshop too.
Only Party suggesting tax is increased to protect millionaires' wealth is Labour...
I've just come back from a walk around Longstanton in Cambridgeshire. Immediately north of the village is the old Oakington airfield, which is now (slowly) becoming the new village of Northstowe. I had a look around the handful of completed houses and, with one exception, they look pretty poor. And being the first houses on the village, more care would have been put into them than the thousandth.
Housebuilders are taking the p*ss.
I've written the afternoon thread.
It contains three of the subtlest musical references you will ever see.
https://t.co/GVSKhJfp7z
But she is young, with plenty of time ahead. So if she is ever asked I guess she should just say she is planning to be First Minister (no laughing at the back, it's a theoretical aspiration even though it won't happen) and that is all she is focused on, without ruling out transitioning to Westminster at some point. After all, she could be First Minister (I said no laughing, it's just a hypothetical!) for a spell, then move on to Westminster to advance the cause there.
https://twitter.com/ben_rumsby/status/871065895585632256
A small tipple on Juve for me.
Considering that the SNP are about 6-8% down in the polls compared to 2015 the Tories need to get 42+% to have a chance in Perth or in Moray whilst the winning line in the other 3 seats is likely to be something like 37 or so which is much more likely with tactical voting.
If it is clear which party is best placed to beat the Nats I expect all 3 to fall to either Lab or Con.
Re the subject of tactical voting I can totally get 20% of people of Scotland using their vote tactically but it seems really high for E&W. If it does happen the LD may, just may out preform expectations as I think they could benefit in a number of seats.
As an example: a couple buy a new-build house with a flying lounge (the lounge is above the parking spaces and connected to the house next door). During the first winter, the room gets extremely cold even with heating on. They get the builders in, who claim everything is perfect and insulated as per the law. They get an independent surveyor in, who drills holes in the walls and floor only to discover there is no insulation. The surveyor also found several other significant issues. They then had to suffer a long period of disruption whilst the builder went in and did the work they should have done in the first place. Several other neighbours heard about this, and each one had insulation missing.
You don't 'forget' to put insulation in the walls, if it is required (I'm dubious about filing existing cavity walls with insulation, but it should be okay with buildings designed for it).
+ many other stories. I heard a figure for how many thousands builders set aside for after-sale work on a new-build house, and it was large (also unofficial, so i won't say it here). They'd be better off getting it right in the first place.
Tory Leader refuses to rule out tax rise
Socialist Leader of the opposition challenges Tory Leader on hoome grabbing policy.
Crap. Crap. Crap. How she still has a lead beggars belief.
http://news.sky.com/
"David Goodhart: It’s time to listen to mainstream Britain, and defend a mother’s right to stay at home for longer"
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/06/david-goodhart-its-time-to-listen-to-mainstream-britain-and-defend-a-mothers-right-to-stay-at-home-for-longer.html
Indeed it is fairly possible that after this election that in the majority of seats there is less than 10% between the top 2 parties.
Twitter rumours usually wrong thouh
http://comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/IoS-SM-Political-Poll-3rd-May-2015.pdf
In Edinburgh as far as I understand the Con effort is entirely in Edin SW whilst Labour and the LD are focusing in the seats next door.
I really hope to see Wishart lose his seat in person next Thursday night but not convinced it is going to happen at the moment. The complete lack of any Labour campaign will help but they only got 8% last time.
Also, Scottish MPs/MSPs and journos tend to be a lot more leaky/open than English ones, according to a serious journo friend of mine. Just my theory...
Though he keeps on arguing that the Telegraph have tweeted it - which I haven't seen.
Good evening, everyone.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
* And I was never a Merchant Banker. I was a research analyst, and then a fund manager.
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
Also Clwyd West - which Con won by 18% in 2015.
What's the tech?
https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/871076972553785344
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
Edit. The Tories are in SW of course.