I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
There isn't really a good creepy quasi racist angle for Crosby to really sink his teeth into this time round.
He could of gone for a muslim ban after Manchester.
Aren't we told that the leadership scores are a leading indicator. Now under water even with ComRes.
They are. May will likely win - as she still holds a double-digit lead over Corbyn. She came from a high place in terms of leadership ratings, so in some ways she has room to fall. What it shows though, is that post-June 8th May is in for an absolutely terrible time.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
There isn't really a good creepy quasi racist angle for Crosby to really sink his teeth into this time round.
Mr. Mark, there may be enormo-haddock at undisclosed locations around the United Kingdom. I would advise refraining from adverting your desire for fishy romance too loudly.
On the poll: when was the last time the top two parties got such a large combined share? Lib Dems looking shaky than a lamb in a butcher's shop.
If the Tories don't spend the next 5 days banging on about it in context of orderly brexit (compared to how destabilizing the alternative would be), they are bloody idiots.
Mr. Mark, there may be enormo-haddock at undisclosed locations around the United Kingdom. I would advise refraining from adverting your desire for fishy romance too loudly.
On the poll: when was the last time the top two parties got such a large combined share? Lib Dems looking shaky than a lamb in a butcher's shop.
1979 when Labour and the Tories got a combined 89%, Heath won with 46% to Wilson's 43%
Speaking of gaming the odious FPTP system, it's a shame we can't start a scheme to move voter registrations from safe seats to marginals. It's technically illegal, but candidates get away with something similar, pretending they live in constituencies when they don't... (Reminds me there's been a small kerfuffle in Beeston regarding Soubry's residential status.)
There already is such gaming of the system . It is called holiday homes .
And overseas voters who can choose in which constituency to vote.
Isn't your vote in the last constituency you were registered to vote in as a UK resident?
Indeed, you can't just pick one out!
Test out registering as an overseas voter. I just did. You simply declare where your last residence in the UK was , i.e. you just pick one out.
Don't they actually check that you were previously registered there? The online form can't do that.
They don't ask where you were previously registered. They simply ask where you last lived in the UK.
What was the UK address where you were last registered to vote?
This is where your vote will be counted in elections.
The overseas voters get tacked onto the end of the electoral register for the polling district in which their last registered address is situated. My polling districts have one or two in each. I can't believe that the ERO doesn't verify the information provided by applicants before adding them to the register. They have historical records going back a very long time, after all.
Since the local political parties have their own records (mine go back to the 1980s), anyone added to the register who hadn't genuinely lived there before could easily be challenged.
Mr. Mark, there may be enormo-haddock at undisclosed locations around the United Kingdom. I would advise refraining from adverting your desire for fishy romance too loudly.
On the poll: when was the last time the top two parties got such a large combined share? Lib Dems looking shaky than a lamb in a butcher's shop.
1979 when Labour and the Tories got a combined 89%, Heath won with 46% to Wilson's 43%
Well spotted. Huge turnout despite only 24 hours' notice of the event - including the mass of people who couldn't get in because of fire regs, I estimated around 700 - which is a lot more than i ever managed, even when Tony came to speak at the same venue in 1997.
Resurfacing to say I am stuck for the weekend in a place with two die hard corbynistas. I had expected one, not two. One used to vote Tory, but given the atmosphere I think I will avoid mentioning I am joining the pb Tory ranks on Thursday. These are not the positive, well meaning corbynistas, but the hang the Tories kind. Ah, family.
Mr. Brom, I largely agree. I think a majority of 60-80 likeliest, but if it's outside that I think an upside (from a Conservative perspective) surprise likelier than falling short.
I'm glad I'm not alone. I think 60-80 is spot on. I do think maybe all polls even Comres will show single digit leads at best prior to Thursday, however I'm expecting a 6-9 point Con victory with a considerably more efficient vote share than Labour. This Labour campaign has been very much about trying to ride a national wave led by the youth, in contrast the underwhelming Tory campaign might have been torpedoed on the surface, but below deck the smart guys have been hammering away at all the right targets.
Resurfacing to say I am stuck for the weekend in a place with two die hard corbynistas. I had expected one, not two. One used to vote Tory, but given the atmosphere I think I will avoid mentioning I am joining the pb Tory ranks on Thursday. These are not the positive, well meaning corbynistas, but the hang the Tories kind. Ah, family.
Were you badly brought up or something? A person shouldn't enjoy another person's pain. That's nasty.
When that persons desires are for pain to be inflicted upon the whole country out of envy and spite as yours are then it is perfectly justified to wish them suffering in return.
There are very many decent Labour (as well as Lib Dems and SNP) supporters - the vast majority indeed - who will be disappointed if they do not win as they hoped and I would not wish that suffering on them for a second. There are others like yourself whose views are frankly so utterly warped that you do not deserve any such consolation.
Mr. Mark, there may be enormo-haddock at undisclosed locations around the United Kingdom. I would advise refraining from adverting your desire for fishy romance too loudly.
On the poll: when was the last time the top two parties got such a large combined share? Lib Dems looking shaky than a lamb in a butcher's shop.
1979 when Labour and the Tories got a combined 89%, Heath won with 46% to Wilson's 43%
Some mistake, surely. 1974?
Except neither of the 1974 results was anything like that. 1950s?
Resurfacing to say I am stuck for the weekend in a place with two die hard corbynistas. I had expected one, not two. One used to vote Tory, but given the atmosphere I think I will avoid mentioning I am joining the pb Tory ranks on Thursday. These are not the positive, well meaning corbynistas, but the hang the Tories kind. Ah, family.
Stick with the LibDems; you know a Tory vote will simply lead to repentance at leisure (or sooner, if you are like SeanT).
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
There isn't really a good creepy quasi racist angle for Crosby to really sink his teeth into this time round.
He could of gone for a muslim ban after Manchester.
Mirror PoliticsVerified account @MirrorPolitics 2m2 minutes ago More Tories quietly U-turn on big promise to build a "generation of social housing"
what!? I give up.
I would suggest waiting for a more reliable source than a tweet from the Mirror before making a judgement...
The story was published elsewhere this morning , cant remember where I saw it now .
Does anyone know what labours trident / nuclear / defence policy is.? Does anyone know what their garden tax policy is? Does anyone know where the money will come from for their social care policy?
If you walk around your local town as I did today and see young people on their phones, shopping, chatting rubbish etc you know that after years of not voting they are not suddenly going to be turned on by a stuffy and dull 67 year old man, you have to remember many, many young people have conservative views on crime, immigration etc, they will reflect the view of their parents but at the same time are unlikely to be voting. Young people are not political activists, this is not a revolution and when I hear on PB or UKpolling that "oh my son and his friends are voting Corbyn" , thats because they're the kids of highly politicised middle class nerds - they are the minority! The surge is just not happening on the scale the pollsters think and it will not transfer to the ballot box. I am sure of that. I imagine Tory polling is also sure of that. The fact remain lost the referendum will only have served to increase those thinking 'what's the point' rather than keeping them engaged.
On top of this I'm not so much looking at 18-24 data when looking at Corbyn's vote as 18-30s being a more realistic example of high Corbyn support but mediocre turnout. Problem is I don't think we should be looking just at the 65+ group for a high Tory vote and turnout, it's almost the same with the over 55s too. As we know for sheer numbers alone 55+ on numbers alone we have around 5 or 6 million more people in there are in the 18-30 group.
So in summary Labour's polling is relying on (for the first time ever) huge waves of youth voters turning out at levels above the EU ref, and not just in safe middle class Tory seats or safe Labour university seats. Meanwhile the Tories have the over 55s who always turn out, with a more polarised choice than ever, a safe inoffensive conservative or a throwback from those bad economic years in the 1970s. I think they are going to turnout bigly for May despite her weak campaign and will hold the key to a very reasonable Con majority.
I'd be interested to know what facts about 18-24s that you gathered during your experiments in Lincoln support your view that sufficient numbers of young people will do something other than voting Labour for the Tories to retain a majority. A net Tory loss of only five seats and May's majority (in Betfair terms) has disappeared.
Mr. Mark, there may be enormo-haddock at undisclosed locations around the United Kingdom. I would advise refraining from adverting your desire for fishy romance too loudly.
On the poll: when was the last time the top two parties got such a large combined share? Lib Dems looking shaky than a lamb in a butcher's shop.
1979 when Labour and the Tories got a combined 89%, Heath won with 46% to Wilson's 43%
Some mistake, surely. 1974?
No, Feb 1974 Tory+Labour was 74%, Thorpe's Liberals got 19% and Oct 1974 Tory+Labour was 75% and Thorpe's Liberals got 18%
Yeah, but as a rant, you have to admit it was SeanT class, Richard.
Nice to know more than one PBer can do it.
The difference is tone. Sean's rants are born of fear and large quantities of alcohol. When he calms down he almost always expresses genuine regret. Cyan's posts are uniformly malignant and you genuinely believe he wishes ill upon people just because they think differently to him.
ComRes shows Labour ahead in has the best policies, but May ahead of Corbyn in makes the best PM. And this is why Labour will lose.
That Conservative Manifesto is so awful that the puffin book of five-minute stories would probably poll better than it.
They would have been far better to nick Tony's pledge card idea and basically put Orderly BREXIT, Strong Economy, Control Immigration, insert 2 fillers like Bins.
Mr. Mark, there may be enormo-haddock at undisclosed locations around the United Kingdom. I would advise refraining from adverting your desire for fishy romance too loudly.
On the poll: when was the last time the top two parties got such a large combined share? Lib Dems looking shaky than a lamb in a butcher's shop.
1979 when Labour and the Tories got a combined 89%, Heath won with 46% to Wilson's 43%
Yeah, but as a rant, you have to admit it was SeanT class, Richard.
Nice to know more than one PBer can do it.
The difference is tone. Sean's rants are born of fear and large quantities of alcohol. When he calms down he almost always expresses genuine regret. Cyan's posts are uniformly malignant and you genuinely believe he wishes ill upon people just because they think differently to him.
If you walk around your local town as I did today and see young people on their phones, shopping, chatting rubbish etc you know that after years of not voting they are not suddenly going to be turned on by a stuffy and dull 67 year old man, you have to remember many, many young people have conservative views on crime, immigration etc, they will reflect the view of their parents but at the same time are unlikely to be voting. Young people are not political activists, this is not a revolution and when I hear on PB or UKpolling that "oh my son and his friends are voting Corbyn" , thats because they're the kids of highly politicised middle class nerds - they are the minority! The surge is just not happening on the scale the pollsters think and it will not transfer to the ballot box. I am sure of that. I imagine Tory polling is also sure of that. The fact remain lost the referendum will only have served to increase those thinking 'what's the point' rather than keeping them engaged.
On top of this I'm not so much looking at 18-24 data when looking at Corbyn's vote as 18-30s being a more realistic example of high Corbyn support but mediocre turnout. Problem is I don't think we should be looking just at the 65+ group for a high Tory vote and turnout, it's almost the same with the over 55s too. As we know for sheer numbers alone 55+ on numbers alone we have around 5 or 6 million more people in there are in the 18-30 group.
So in summary Labour's polling is relying on (for the first time ever) huge waves of youth voters turning out at levels above the EU ref, and not just in safe middle class Tory seats or safe Labour university seats. Meanwhile the Tories have the over 55s who always turn out, with a more polarised choice than ever, a safe inoffensive conservative or a throwback from those bad economic years in the 1970s. I think they are going to turnout bigly for May despite her weak campaign and will hold the key to a very reasonable Con majority.
I'd be interested to know what facts about 18-24s that you gathered during your experiments in Lincoln support your view that sufficient numbers of young people will do something other than voting Labour for the Tories to retain a majority. A net Tory loss of only five seats and May's majority (in Betfair terms) has disappeared.
Oh I'm not saying they are voting Tory, far from it. I'm just saying they're not voting. I won't reveal my methods but I have confidence that in almost all battlegrounds outside London the 18-24 numbers will fall short of the EU ref voting numbers. I said a couple of days ago I thought maybe 60% turnout for 18-24s but I'd probably say that's the ceiling.
Resurfacing to say I am stuck for the weekend in a place with two die hard corbynistas. I had expected one, not two. One used to vote Tory, but given the atmosphere I think I will avoid mentioning I am joining the pb Tory ranks on Thursday. These are not the positive, well meaning corbynistas, but the hang the Tories kind. Ah, family.
Stick with the LibDems; you know a Tory vote will simply lead to repentance at leisure (or sooner, if you are like SeanT).
A ld vote would enable me to shirk responsibility for any future and inevitable Tory messes, which is attractive as a prospect, but in a world where Corbyn might get 2001 numbers, time for crazy responses. They won't get my loyalty.
ComRes shows Labour ahead in has the best policies, but May ahead of Corbyn in makes the best PM. And this is why Labour will lose.
That is a very generic question though, on immigration, Brexit, welfare, law and order, their own taxes and national security and defence voters prefer the Tories, on the NHS, free school lunches, taxes for the rich, nationalisations, tuition fees and invading other countries voters prefer Corbyn Labour
Still, it'll be good to finally see if, contrary to all expectations ahead of the contest, the reds can actually surpass the predictions, and win. And we'll find out, on Sunday, if Ferrari can win the Canadian Grand Prix.
Again you would think the brain trust for the Tories seeing Corbyn leadership ratings heading upwards would be focusing their fire on a daily basis on informing the public of what a total incompetent he and his team are. But nope.
Is David Cameron campaigning for the blue team? Gordon Brown's been on the stump for the reds. The last time I saw Cameron in the news, his feet were going on holiday.
He's been told by the May Team to stay well away. Mad decision but there it is.
I'd heard that story too.
Apparently she wants to own this campaign and victory, so she could say she won the South West, not Dave this time.
"Yes 'Dave, I want to stay in the eu at any price', come on down and start campaigning for the Tories. Never mind the awkward Brexit questions."
ComRes Favourability: May has gone negative for the first time (+39-42) (-3, down 12). They've still got her ahead of Corbyn, who is on +32-47 (-15, up 18). Best PM: May 49 (-2), Corbyn 34 (+4). They've also got Con-Lab on 47(+1) to 35 (+1) which is just ridiculous.
ComRes shows Labour ahead in has the best policies, but May ahead of Corbyn in makes the best PM. And this is why Labour will lose.
That Conservative Manifesto is so awful that the puffin book of five-minute stories would probably poll better than it.
And it's only going to go downhill for the Tories from here given what the manifesto promises.
The manifesto promises virtually nothing beyond Brexit, certainly no economic giveaways, which gives May more room for manoeuvre if she does win, no commitment to keep all taxes low, no triple lock etc
ComRes shows Labour ahead in has the best policies, but May ahead of Corbyn in makes the best PM. And this is why Labour will lose.
That Conservative Manifesto is so awful that the puffin book of five-minute stories would probably poll better than it.
They would have been far better to nick Tony's pledge card idea and basically put Orderly BREXIT, Strong Economy, Control Immigration, insert 2 fillers like Bins.
She should have just spent the election talking about Brexit.
It is sad to think that for the overwhelming majority of right leaning voters on PB (and for quite a lot of left leaning ones as well), the main feeling on Friday if May has won will be one of guarded relief.
Are any of the bookies putting odds on May surviving to 2022 if she wins? I would be amazed if she lasts out this Parliament after this election performance.
Resurfacing to say I am stuck for the weekend in a place with two die hard corbynistas. I had expected one, not two. One used to vote Tory, but given the atmosphere I think I will avoid mentioning I am joining the pb Tory ranks on Thursday. These are not the positive, well meaning corbynistas, but the hang the Tories kind. Ah, family.
I feel your pain
Just had a week in Brecon with 2 as well.
Although interestingly the Min L went off him after the Cambridge debate-thought he was saying waht people wanted to hear not what he thought-but she will still vote for him
Again you would think the brain trust for the Tories seeing Corbyn leadership ratings heading upwards would be focusing their fire on a daily basis on informing the public of what a total incompetent he and his team are. But nope.
Turning the campaign towards competence doesn't look like the Ace up the sleeve that it did a month ago?
It is sad to think that for the overwhelming majority of right leaning voters on PB (and for quite a lot of left leaning ones as well), the main feeling on Friday if May has won will be one of guarded relief.
Are any of the bookies putting odds on May surviving to 2022 if she wins? I would be amazed if she lasts out this Parliament after this election performance.
It won't be for me....The Tories have enabled Corbynism to be legitimized. His magic money forest of policies and associations with disgusting people should have been ripped to shreds, so that Labour could ditch him and become a sensible left centre party again.
Instead whatever happens we are stuck with Corbynism for the foreseeable future.
It's funny that the best polls for the Tories are in the left-leaning papers, and the worst are in the right-leaning ones. Would that depress the former and energise the latter?
Mr. Pulpstar, yes. But it's likely to be at the top end of things for the blues. But, if it's accurate *or* understates the Conservatives it could be a landslide.
I'd guess all or almost all polls will be much better for Labour, though.
Mr. B2, nobody's suggesting not having a diplomatic, trading or military relationship (via NATO) with other European countries.
On the result: suppose May wins handily. Do the PCP go after her blood soon, or wait until she takes the EU bullet? Do they demand Timothy's head on a plate?
Well spotted. Huge turnout despite only 24 hours' notice of the event - including the mass of people who couldn't get in because of fire regs, I estimated around 700 - which is a lot more than i ever managed, even when Tony came to speak at the same venue in 1997.
mmmm...this reminds me of a Michael Foot rally in Norwich in 1983...
"Even though Mr.Foot's rally coincided with FA CUP Final, hundreds of people were still trying to find a way in when he stepped onto the platform."
It is all in the weightings , look at Q3 in the Comres data tables and eliminate the 10% Don't Knows and you get Con 43 Lab 38.5 LD 8 . The data is pretty much the same for both today's polls , the end results differ a lot because of the way it is manipulated sorry fine adjusted .
ComRes shows Labour ahead in has the best policies, but May ahead of Corbyn in makes the best PM. And this is why Labour will lose.
That Conservative Manifesto is so awful that the puffin book of five-minute stories would probably poll better than it.
And it's only going to go downhill for the Tories from here given what the manifesto promises.
The manifesto promises virtually nothing beyond Brexit, certainly no economic giveaways, which gives May more room for manoeuvre if she does win, no commitment to keep all taxes low, no triple lock etc
ComRes shows Labour ahead in has the best policies, but May ahead of Corbyn in makes the best PM. And this is why Labour will lose.
That Conservative Manifesto is so awful that the puffin book of five-minute stories would probably poll better than it.
And it's only going to go downhill for the Tories from here given what the manifesto promises.
Agreed. May's spell over the media has been broken, and the next five years will be one of the toughest in recent history. If people are fed up with austerity now, they are going to feel some type of way when they feel the impact of a Hard Brexit and more austerity.
It is all in the weightings , look at Q3 in the Comres data tables and eliminate the 10% Don't Knows and you get Con 43 Lab 38.5 LD 8 . The data is pretty much the same for both today's polls , the end results differ a lot because of the way it is manipulated sorry fine adjusted .
I said this weeks ago, I never understand the apparent love in with Kim Jong May. Perhaps because I follow the news more closely, but I just didn't get the sky high ratings for her.
Any further news today on electorate data over and above the 100 seats published last night per link below?
This is the key info - if those 100 seats are representative then the electoral register just hasn't risen to the extent required for a big surge in young votes.
Well spotted. Huge turnout despite only 24 hours' notice of the event - including the mass of people who couldn't get in because of fire regs, I estimated around 700 - which is a lot more than i ever managed, even when Tony came to speak at the same venue in 1997.
mmmm...this reminds me of a Michael Foot rally in Norwich in 1983...
"Even though Mr.Foot's rally coincided with FA CUP Final, hundreds of people were still trying to find a way in when he stepped onto the platform."
I would have gone to a Foot rally even though I would never have voted for him. The man was a political and oratorical giant and it would have been wonderful to hear him speak.
It is sad to think that for the overwhelming majority of right leaning voters on PB (and for quite a lot of left leaning ones as well), the main feeling on Friday if May has won will be one of guarded relief.
Are any of the bookies putting odds on May surviving to 2022 if she wins? I would be amazed if she lasts out this Parliament after this election performance.
If she gets a majority over 50 she will have greater control over her party and a bigger mandate than any Tory leader since Thatcher, she will survive, she will only be under threat if she does worse than Cameron did
Mr. Brom, Labour's got the youth. Who don't vote. Conservatives have the elderly, who do.
Of course, I could be totally wrong. We shall find out relatively soon.
The elderly run this country. You think they are going to let some lippy lefties take that away from them? No bloody chance. They will come out in huge numbers on Thursday to retain their supremacy over these islands....
That lippy Mr Kinnock thought he was going to Downing Street in '92. But he - and Corbyn - reckoned without the wall of zimmer frames, dodgy knees and replaced hips, limping and wheezing and setting off to the Polling Stations in mobility scooters, like some geriatric recreation of a Mods run to Brighton...
Resurfacing to say I am stuck for the weekend in a place with two die hard corbynistas. I had expected one, not two. One used to vote Tory, but given the atmosphere I think I will avoid mentioning I am joining the pb Tory ranks on Thursday. These are not the positive, well meaning corbynistas, but the hang the Tories kind. Ah, family.
Shy Tory?
I have a 25 y.o niece who fills my FB feed with constant Corbynista propaganda. She has literally become obsessed. The comedown if the Tories secure a majority will be alarming.
Mr. Brom, Labour's got the youth. Who don't vote. Conservatives have the elderly, who do.
Of course, I could be totally wrong. We shall find out relatively soon.
The elderly run this country. You think they are going to let some lippy lefties take that away from them? No bloody chance. They will come out in huge numbers on Thursday to retain their supremacy over these islands....
That lippy Mr Kinnock thought he was going to Downing Street in '92. But he - and Corbyn - reckoned without the wall of zimmer frames, dodgy knees and replaced hips, limping and wheezing and setting off to the Polling Stations in mobility scooters, like some geriatric recreation of a Mods run to Brighton...
ComRes Favourability: May has gone negative for the first time (+39-42) (-3, down 12). They've still got her ahead of Corbyn, who is on +32-47 (-15, up 18). Best PM: May 49 (-2), Corbyn 34 (+4). They've also got Con-Lab on 47(+1) to 35 (+1) which is just ridiculous.
The difference between May and corbyn's net favourability is 12% the same as the headline lead. This is the figure we should be looking for in YouGov.
It is sad to think that for the overwhelming majority of right leaning voters on PB (and for quite a lot of left leaning ones as well), the main feeling on Friday if May has won will be one of guarded relief.
Are any of the bookies putting odds on May surviving to 2022 if she wins? I would be amazed if she lasts out this Parliament after this election performance.
It won't be for me....The Tories have enabled Corbynism to be legitimized. His magic money forest of policies and associations with disgusting people should have been ripped to shreds, so that Labour could ditch him and become a sensible left centre party again.
Instead whatever happens we are stuck with Corbynism for the foreseeable future.
Hence the 'guarded' bit. Relief that we were spared Corbyn but some anger that the Tories messed things up so badly.
Is it my imagination, or do the Liberal Democrats (or Liberals) need someone with serious personal flaws to perform well? Put a prissy vicar in charge and they sink without a trace.
Thorpe. Ashdown. Kennedy.
Conspiracy to murder, adultery, alcoholism.
Just think what the LibDems could have achieved with Huhne or Oaten in charge.
Resurfacing to say I am stuck for the weekend in a place with two die hard corbynistas. I had expected one, not two. One used to vote Tory, but given the atmosphere I think I will avoid mentioning I am joining the pb Tory ranks on Thursday. These are not the positive, well meaning corbynistas, but the hang the Tories kind. Ah, family.
Shy Tory?
I have a 25 y.o niece who fills my FB feed with constant Corbynista propaganda. She has literally become obsessed. The comedown if the Tories secure a majority will be alarming.
The messiah worship from the cult of Corbyn is just utterly bizarre to me.
I said this weeks ago, I never understand the apparent love in with Kim Jong May. Perhaps because I follow the news more closely, but I just didn't get the sky high ratings for her.
I think a lot of it was based on her apparent strength, decisiveness and calm leadership.
Whereas the campaign has shown that up, unfortunately.
Again you would think the brain trust for the Tories seeing Corbyn leadership ratings heading upwards would be focusing their fire on a daily basis on informing the public of what a total incompetent he and his team are. But nope.
May is indeed a genius. She does not want a landslide to keep Corbyn as leader, obvs.
Resurfacing to say I am stuck for the weekend in a place with two die hard corbynistas. I had expected one, not two. One used to vote Tory, but given the atmosphere I think I will avoid mentioning I am joining the pb Tory ranks on Thursday. These are not the positive, well meaning corbynistas, but the hang the Tories kind. Ah, family.
Shy Tory?
I have a 25 y.o niece who fills my FB feed with constant Corbynista propaganda. She has literally become obsessed. The comedown if the Tories secure a majority will be alarming.
I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.
Commenting on it = being upset? If people think it's a bad idea they are allowed to say so
Tge problem for him and the lib dems is that the letters have a national imprint so they will claim they are part if the national spend. The letters though are aimed at individual constituencies and thus should be regarded as local spend and come under the election spending rules- At 30p per leaflet thats a lot of money
I understand that the Electoral Commission have told the parties that if literature mentions the candidate it is local spending, if not it is national. So if Mike says vote Bloggs in Anytown it is local, if Vote Lib Dem in Anytown it is national.
It is sad to think that for the overwhelming majority of right leaning voters on PB (and for quite a lot of left leaning ones as well), the main feeling on Friday if May has won will be one of guarded relief.
Are any of the bookies putting odds on May surviving to 2022 if she wins? I would be amazed if she lasts out this Parliament after this election performance.
If she gets a majority over 50 she will have greater control over her party and a bigger mandate than any Tory leader since Thatcher, she will survive, she will only be under threat if she does worse than Cameron did
She will also still be facing Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs.....
Comments
Then again I don't see Labour on as much 35% either.
Since the local political parties have their own records (mine go back to the 1980s), anyone added to the register who hadn't genuinely lived there before could easily be challenged.
Mr. Mark, I might well have voted tactically for the yellows for someone like Lamb, or Webb, but I'm in a red-blue marginal, so...
Plus a bit of swingback. Let's call it 50%-32%......
At this stage, I think the Tories would eat your babies in front of you for 45/35.
Now ComRes is the one they love.
Comedy can do so much for the soul.
There are very many decent Labour (as well as Lib Dems and SNP) supporters - the vast majority indeed - who will be disappointed if they do not win as they hoped and I would not wish that suffering on them for a second. There are others like yourself whose views are frankly so utterly warped that you do not deserve any such consolation.
Nah, me neither.
Does anyone know what their garden tax policy is?
Does anyone know where the money will come from for their social care policy?
"Just saying... "
Of course, I could be totally wrong. We shall find out relatively soon.
They won't get my loyalty.
And slightly less crap..
Still, it'll be good to finally see if, contrary to all expectations ahead of the contest, the reds can actually surpass the predictions, and win. And we'll find out, on Sunday, if Ferrari can win the Canadian Grand Prix.
"The delusion that the UK stood bravely alone through the war means that there is a real risk of Britain believing it doesn’t need Europe to survive"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/dunkirk-spirit-brexiters-uk-britain-europe
I like Dave btw. And voted Remain.
Favourability: May has gone negative for the first time (+39-42) (-3, down 12). They've still got her ahead of Corbyn, who is on +32-47 (-15, up 18).
Best PM: May 49 (-2), Corbyn 34 (+4).
They've also got Con-Lab on 47(+1) to 35 (+1) which is just ridiculous.
Are any of the bookies putting odds on May surviving to 2022 if she wins? I would be amazed if she lasts out this Parliament after this election performance.
Just had a week in Brecon with 2 as well.
Although interestingly the Min L went off him after the Cambridge debate-thought he was saying waht people wanted to hear not what he thought-but she will still vote for him
Instead whatever happens we are stuck with Corbynism for the foreseeable future.
I'd guess all or almost all polls will be much better for Labour, though.
Mr. B2, nobody's suggesting not having a diplomatic, trading or military relationship (via NATO) with other European countries.
On the result: suppose May wins handily. Do the PCP go after her blood soon, or wait until she takes the EU bullet? Do they demand Timothy's head on a plate?
"Even though Mr.Foot's rally coincided with FA CUP Final, hundreds of people were still trying to find a way in when he stepped onto the platform."
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/michael-foot-s-visit-to-norwich-in-1983-was-the-last-time-a-politician-drew-the-crowds-of-corbyn-1-4187265
Polling Disaster Mk II coming up for somebody...
This is the key info - if those 100 seats are representative then the electoral register just hasn't risen to the extent required for a big surge in young votes.
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats
That lippy Mr Kinnock thought he was going to Downing Street in '92. But he - and Corbyn - reckoned without the wall of zimmer frames, dodgy knees and replaced hips, limping and wheezing and setting off to the Polling Stations in mobility scooters, like some geriatric recreation of a Mods run to Brighton...
Thorpe.
Ashdown.
Kennedy.
Conspiracy to murder, adultery, alcoholism.
Just think what the LibDems could have achieved with Huhne or Oaten in charge.
Whereas the campaign has shown that up, unfortunately.