??? Britain will be in trouble when faced with a German occupied Europe.
Is that the Guardian's analogy?
The reality is the Guardian have invented a delusion that does not exist.
I think it is because so many people make allusions between us standing alone in WW2 and Brexit. Including the man who is negotiating Brexit for us. The concerns are that the analogies are false, as I think you point out, but also because they are comparing Brexit to a myth. Our role in WW2 wasn't like that.
Exactly. Our stand was noble and heroic, but in the final showdown the truth is that we had merely a bit part. Our national delusion that it was otherwise has led to mistake after mistake in the post-war world.
Is it my imagination, or do the Liberal Democrats (or Liberals) need someone with serious personal flaws to perform well? Put a prissy vicar in charge and they sink without a trace.
Thorpe. Ashdown. Kennedy.
Conspiracy to murder, adultery, alcoholism.
Just think what the LibDems could have achieved with Huhne or Oaten in charge.
Being a bit unfair to Clegg. He doesn't seem to have been anything other than a decent if misguided fellow and he did take them into Government for the first time in many decades.
Yes, his huge flaw was taking them into government (on the terms offered).
He was faced with an impossible situation given the economic situation. He plumped for giving the country a stable government for 5 years.
He acted in the national interest, but destroyed his party in the process. I would not have wanted to have been in his position. I suspect history will judge him kindly.
I have a lot of time for the likes of Clegg, and more so Alexander, Webb, Lamb...They all took their role seriously and acted in the national interest.
I am sure Danny Alexander especially has all sorts of shit he could have spun about the Tories in 2015, but I think he released one story that the Tories once considered something and the Lib Dems stopped it, and that was it.
But even 2 years down the line, nobody has a bad word to say about the Park Ranger and he says nothing about anybody else.
Danny Alexander was class and a great attribute to the UK political scene. Steven Webb was another. There was a lot of talent in the pre-2015 Lib Dems. Post, not so much.
There's Lamb. And Tom Brake's alright.
Sad, really, that the two sitting LibDems most likely to lose their seats are their brightest stars.
Were you brought up on war movies? All that piece seems to be saying is that Dunkirk was a near-disaster and Lend-Lease was a thing. Well I never, and anyway so what?
The thing about WW2 is it actually is the greatest story ever told, and we are the heroes. Other heroic victories aren't actually good v evil, they are our ingroup vs the outgroup - Troy, Marathon, Roncesvalles, Lepanto all white European vs swarthy barbarian, with not much to choose morally between the parties - Darius and Xerxes invading Greece were no better or worse than Alexander invading the East. WW2 is the only exception, the one where the Good vs Evil markers are so heavy-handed that even Tolkien would have thought it was laying it on a bit thick - like the bit where one side kills 6m people in death camps, and the other side um, doesn't. And we - the UK - won it. Obviously there was a lot of help from our former colonists, but the UK headlined. If bedwetting guardianistas are embarrassed about that, fuck 'em.
Mr. L, and two of the least impressive, Davey and Cable, are trying to get back in. Rather have Danny Alexander* than Davey, Cable and Farron together.
*Or Webb/Lamb.
Anyway, the time for me to sod off has arrived. Don't get too giddy over the polls.
Mr. L, and two of the least impressive, Davey and Cable, are trying to get back in. Rather have Danny Alexander* than Davey, Cable and Farron together.
*Or Webb/Lamb.
Anyway, the time for me to sod off has arrived. Don't get too giddy over the polls.
As we all know, there is only one poll that matters - the next one.
Resurfacing to say I am stuck for the weekend in a place with two die hard corbynistas. I had expected one, not two. One used to vote Tory, but given the atmosphere I think I will avoid mentioning I am joining the pb Tory ranks on Thursday. These are not the positive, well meaning corbynistas, but the hang the Tories kind. Ah, family.
Shy Tory?
I have a 25 y.o niece who fills my FB feed with constant Corbynista propaganda. She has literally become obsessed. The comedown if the Tories secure a majority will be alarming.
The messiah worship from the cult of Corbyn is just utterly bizarre to me.
What day of the week does the print edition of the NME come out? The Guardian said on Thursday that Jeremy Corbyn "will" appear on its cover "this week".
Some PB Tories may be letting their emotions block them from realising that Team Corbyn has so far fought an extremely competent campaign.
Oh no his campaign has been competent enough. But so was Ed's and Foot's and the rest.....
Not Foot's. He ran a dreadful campaign. There is anecdotal evidence to suggest that about half the votes Labour lost in 1983 were lost in the campaign.
Kinnock was highly effective as a campaigner. He just struggled to translate that into votes (although it should be noted by 1992 he had added six points to Labour's vote, almost a 25% increase on 1983).
It's been noted before, but the drift from the locals is insane - and not just for the big two. The LDs are polling 10% below what they got in the locals, a gap which has generally been 5-6%. While Labour are polling 10% ABOVE their NEV. We're through the looking glass if the polls are remotely correct.
ComRes shows Labour ahead in has the best policies, but May ahead of Corbyn in makes the best PM. And this is why Labour will lose.
That is a very generic question though, on immigration, Brexit, welfare, law and order, their own taxes and national security and defence voters prefer the Tories, on the NHS, free school lunches, taxes for the rich, nationalisations, tuition fees and invading other countries voters prefer Corbyn Labour
I see a contradiction there. They dont want tax rises but want a raft of extra socialist spending.
Is this a genuine contradiction... if so what do we make of the electorate. Or is it a product of the questions and methodogy.
BTW why in any universe should I be remotely interested in my govt wasting billions on nationalising the railways? Why should I as a pensipner see my taxes go to subsidise rich train drivers and THEIR pensions and why should do anything to benefit rich commuters?
What earthly real benefit to anyone other than trade unions does the spending on nationalisation bring?
'From the many to the few'
Different people with different priorities plump for one party or the other. Those that think Brexit is the most important thing think the Tories are better at it (I think they are wrong on that, but there you go). Those that think the NHS is more important think Labour are better at it
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
It's been noted before, but the drift from the locals is insane - and not just for the big two. The LDs are polling 10% below what they got in the locals, a gap which has generally been 5-6%. While Labour are polling 10% ABOVE their NEV. We're through the looking glass if the polls are remotely correct.
The LibDems are the party you call when your pothole needs filling. When it's the country that needs running - not so much....
Is it my imagination, or do the Liberal Democrats (or Liberals) need someone with serious personal flaws to perform well? Put a prissy vicar in charge and they sink without a trace.
Thorpe. Ashdown. Kennedy.
Conspiracy to murder, adultery, alcoholism.
Just think what the LibDems could have achieved with Huhne or Oaten in charge.
Being a bit unfair to Clegg. He doesn't seem to have been anything other than a decent if misguided fellow and he did take them into Government for the first time in many decades.
Yes, his huge flaw was taking them into government (on the terms offered).
He was faced with an impossible situation given the economic situation. He plumped for giving the country a stable government for 5 years.
He acted in the national interest, but destroyed his party in the process. I would not have wanted to have been in his position. I suspect history will judge him kindly.
I have a lot of time for the likes of Clegg, and more so Alexander, Webb, Lamb...They all took their role seriously and acted in the national interest.
I am sure Danny Alexander especially has all sorts of shit he could have spun about the Tories in 2015, but I think he released one story that the Tories once considered something and the Lib Dems stopped it, and that was it.
But even 2 years down the line, nobody has a bad word to say about the Park Ranger and he says nothing about anybody else.
Danny Alexander was class and a great attribute to the UK political scene. Steven Webb was another. There was a lot of talent in the pre-2015 Lib Dems. Post, not so much.
There's Lamb. And Tom Brake's alright.
Sad, really, that the two sitting LibDems most likely to lose their seats are their brightest stars.
Clegg, anyone?
Second on Lamb. I can't reveal on here some of the stuff I know about what he did in government, but it was extremely impressive and principled. And a lot of good for some very vulnerable people should have come from it.
It's been noted before, but the drift from the locals is insane - and not just for the big two. The LDs are polling 10% below what they got in the locals, a gap which has generally been 5-6%. While Labour are polling 10% ABOVE their NEV. We're through the looking glass if the polls are remotely correct.
The LibDems are the party you call when your pothole needs filling. When it's the country that needs running - not so much....
Indeed. I've voted Lib Dems in the locals before but would never conceive of doing so in a general.
Resurfacing to say I am stuck for the weekend in a place with two die hard corbynistas. I had expected one, not two. One used to vote Tory, but given the atmosphere I think I will avoid mentioning I am joining the pb Tory ranks on Thursday. These are not the positive, well meaning corbynistas, but the hang the Tories kind. Ah, family.
Shy Tory?
I have a 25 y.o niece who fills my FB feed with constant Corbynista propaganda. She has literally become obsessed. The comedown if the Tories secure a majority will be alarming.
The messiah worship from the cult of Corbyn is just utterly bizarre to me.
What day of the week does the print edition of the NME come out? The Guardian said on Thursday that Jeremy Corbyn "will" appear on its cover "this week".
Some PB Tories may be letting their emotions block them from realising that Team Corbyn has so far fought an extremely competent campaign.
Oh no his campaign has been competent enough. But so was Ed's and Foot's and the rest.....
Corbyn's campaign only looks good relative to the rest. It is hard to know who would get the award for the worst campaign - each of the Tories, UKIP, the LibDems and the SNP would be in with a shout.....
It's been noted before, but the drift from the locals is insane - and not just for the big two. The LDs are polling 10% below what they got in the locals, a gap which has generally been 5-6%. While Labour are polling 10% ABOVE their NEV. We're through the looking glass if the polls are remotely correct.
The LibDems are the party you call when your pothole needs filling. When it's the country that needs running - not so much....
I have this vision of a caped cruiser "Lib Dem Man" who appears at night to fill potholes up and down the country.
If JC stays in post (assuming Labour defeat) and wants to fight 2022, it is worth mentioning that he will be 73 at the time of the next election.
That is 3 years older than Trump is now. I suppose it's around the same age as Reagan in 1984, but he had served a full term by then.
I may be wrong, but surely if he stays the plan will be to parachute an acolyte into the leadership before the next election, once he's finished the momentum takeover?
Resurfacing to say I am stuck for the weekend in a place with two die hard corbynistas. I had expected one, not two. One used to vote Tory, but given the atmosphere I think I will avoid mentioning I am joining the pb Tory ranks on Thursday. These are not the positive, well meaning corbynistas, but the hang the Tories kind. Ah, family.
Shy Tory?
I have a 25 y.o niece who fills my FB feed with constant Corbynista propaganda. She has literally become obsessed. The comedown if the Tories secure a majority will be alarming.
The messiah worship from the cult of Corbyn is just utterly bizarre to me.
What day of the week does the print edition of the NME come out? The Guardian said on Thursday that Jeremy Corbyn "will" appear on its cover "this week".
Some PB Tories may be letting their emotions block them from realising that Team Corbyn has so far fought an extremely competent campaign.
Oh no his campaign has been competent enough. But so was Ed's and Foot's and the rest.....
Corbyn's campaign only looks good relative to the rest. It is hard to know who would get the award for the worst campaign - each of the Tories, UKIP, the LibDems and the SNP would be in with a shout.....
A good Tory campaign would have buried Corbyn's fantasy manifesto and all his dodgy associations and hangers on.
To think a major attack against Cameron being allowed to be PM was he was once in a posh drinking club and smoked the odd joint. That was repeated ad infinitum.
Now we have a genuine terrorist sympathizer, with a marxist as potential chancellor, a communist campaign organizer and a home secretary who wanted the IRA to win.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
Mundell and BRS should both be "in the bag" too if this is correct. But that is ridiculously loose lipped from SCON
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
It's been noted before, but the drift from the locals is insane - and not just for the big two. The LDs are polling 10% below what they got in the locals, a gap which has generally been 5-6%. While Labour are polling 10% ABOVE their NEV. We're through the looking glass if the polls are remotely correct.
The LibDems are the party you call when your pothole needs filling. When it's the country that needs running - not so much....
I have this vision of a caped cruiser "Lib Dem Man" who appears at night to fill potholes up and down the country.
Is it my imagination, or do the Liberal Democrats (or Liberals) need someone with serious personal flaws to perform well? Put a prissy vicar in charge and they sink without a trace.
Thorpe. Ashdown. Kennedy.
Conspiracy to murder, adultery, alcoholism.
Just think what the LibDems could have achieved with Huhne or Oaten in charge.
Being a bit unfair to Clegg. He doesn't seem to have been anything other than a decent if misguided fellow and he did take them into Government for the first time in many decades.
Yes, his huge flaw was taking them into government (on the terms offered).
He was faced with an impossible situation given the economic situation. He plumped for giving the country a stable government for 5 years.
He acted in the national interest, but destroyed his party in the process. I would not have wanted to have been in his position. I suspect history will judge him kindly.
I have a lot of time for the likes of Clegg, and more so Alexander, Webb, Lamb...They all took their role seriously and acted in the national interest.
I am sure Danny Alexander especially has all sorts of shit he could have spun about the Tories in 2015, but I think he released one story that the Tories once considered something and the Lib Dems stopped it, and that was it.
But even 2 years down the line, nobody has a bad word to say about the Park Ranger and he says nothing about anybody else.
Danny Alexander was class and a great attribute to the UK political scene. Steven Webb was another. There was a lot of talent in the pre-2015 Lib Dems. Post, not so much.
There's Lamb. And Tom Brake's alright.
Sad, really, that the two sitting LibDems most likely to lose their seats are their brightest stars.
Clegg, anyone?
Jeremy Browne always struck me as highly competent and brave. A serious politician
It's been noted before, but the drift from the locals is insane - and not just for the big two. The LDs are polling 10% below what they got in the locals, a gap which has generally been 5-6%. While Labour are polling 10% ABOVE their NEV. We're through the looking glass if the polls are remotely correct.
The LibDems are the party you call when your pothole needs filling. When it's the country that needs running - not so much....
We need more Lib Dems round my way! The roads are a disgrace.
Actually given the Tories, certainly, and the Labour, likely, don't have the slightest clue on the main thing facing the country, ie Brexit, maybe the pothole fillers should be called in
Mr. L, and two of the least impressive, Davey and Cable, are trying to get back in. Rather have Danny Alexander* than Davey, Cable and Farron together.
*Or Webb/Lamb.
Anyway, the time for me to sod off has arrived. Don't get too giddy over the polls.
As we all know, there is only one poll that matters - the next one.
Is it my imagination, or do the Liberal Democrats (or Liberals) need someone with serious personal flaws to perform well? Put a prissy vicar in charge and they sink without a trace.
Thorpe. Ashdown. Kennedy.
Conspiracy to murder, adultery, alcoholism.
Just think what the LibDems could have achieved with Huhne or Oaten in charge.
Being a bit unfair to Clegg. He doesn't seem to have been anything other than a decent if misguided fellow and he did take them into Government for the first time in many decades.
Yes, his huge flaw was taking them into government (on the terms offered).
He was faced with an impossible situation given the economic situation. He plumped for giving the country a stable government for 5 years.
He acted in the national interest, but destroyed his party in the process. I would not have wanted to have been in his position. I suspect history will judge him kindly.
I have a lot of time for the likes of Clegg, and more so Alexander, Webb, Lamb...They all took their role seriously and acted in the national interest.
I am sure Danny Alexander especially has all sorts of shit he could have spun about the Tories in 2015, but I think he released one story that the Tories once considered something and the Lib Dems stopped it, and that was it.
But even 2 years down the line, nobody has a bad word to say about the Park Ranger and he says nothing about anybody else.
Danny Alexander was class and a great attribute to the UK political scene. Steven Webb was another. There was a lot of talent in the pre-2015 Lib Dems. Post, not so much.
There's Lamb. And Tom Brake's alright.
Sad, really, that the two sitting LibDems most likely to lose their seats are their brightest stars.
Clegg, anyone?
Jeremy Browne always struck me as highly competent and brave. A serious politician
Good call.
I would happily have Alexander, Webb, Browne, Lamb and perhaps even expense fiddler Laws in government. Actual talent. Just compare that to especially Team Twat!!!
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
This has got me thinking of a potentially hilarious scenario. Not one I think will come about, but if Yougov are on the money...
Tories win a majority,but that majority is only made up of Scottish MPs.
I.e - no majority in the HoC for English domestic legislation under the EVFEL mechanics.
Is it my imagination, or do the Liberal Democrats (or Liberals) need someone with serious personal flaws to perform well? Put a prissy vicar in charge and they sink without a trace.
Thorpe. Ashdown. Kennedy.
Conspiracy to murder, adultery, alcoholism.
Just think what the LibDems could have achieved with Huhne or Oaten in charge.
Being a bit unfair to Clegg. He doesn't seem to have been anything other than a decent if misguided fellow and he did take them into Government for the first time in many decades.
Yes, his huge flaw was taking them into government (on the terms offered).
He was faced with an impossible situation given the economic situation. He plumped for giving the country a stable government for 5 years.
He acted in the national interest, but destroyed his party in the process. I would not have wanted to have been in his position. I suspect history will judge him kindly.
I have a lot of time for the likes of Clegg, and more so Alexander, Webb, Lamb...They all took their role seriously and acted in the national interest.
I am sure Danny Alexander especially has all sorts of shit he could have spun about the Tories in 2015, but I think he released one story that the Tories once considered something and the Lib Dems stopped it, and that was it.
But even 2 years down the line, nobody has a bad word to say about the Park Ranger and he says nothing about anybody else.
Danny Alexander was class and a great attribute to the UK political scene. Steven Webb was another. There was a lot of talent in the pre-2015 Lib Dems. Post, not so much.
There's Lamb. And Tom Brake's alright.
Sad, really, that the two sitting LibDems most likely to lose their seats are their brightest stars.
Clegg, anyone?
I've got a lot of time for Clegg even if he was not disturbed enough to make the Lib Dems successful. I agree Lamb is above the low bar in the HoC. Don't know so much about Brake but he seems reasonably sensible.
Just checked where my two Corbyn supporting brothers are this weekend. Pounding the streets to achieve their dream? No at some music festival sending tweets and fb shit. Make of that what you will
Iff true, that would mean that seat has had MPs from three different parties in a little over 2 years.
SNP 4/1 v SCON 1/6 with Betfair !
Getting a bizarre mix of hubris and dampening down of expectations from SCON & their MSM fanboys (Massie, Daislie et al). I think Scotland is shaping up yet again to producing some surprising results !!
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
I think the LDs + Lab will probably be 6/7 in Scotland.
??? Britain will be in trouble when faced with a German occupied Europe.
Is that the Guardian's analogy?
The reality is the Guardian have invented a delusion that does not exist.
I think it is because so many people make allusions between us standing alone in WW2 and Brexit. Including the man who is negotiating Brexit for us. The concerns are that the analogies are false, as I think you point out, but also because they are comparing Brexit to a myth. Our role in WW2 wasn't like that.
Exactly. Our stand was noble and heroic, but in the final showdown the truth is that we had merely a bit part. Our national delusion that it was otherwise has led to mistake after mistake in the post-war world.
I think you can go too far with the myth correction/revisionism.
For just under a year from May 1940 (Dunkirk) to March 1941 (Lend Lease act) we did effectively stand alone. An example is oil. Fearful of it falling into German hands the US had a ban on the export of all oil technology to the UK. It was only because many sympathetic American oil men broke the law and came over to the UK to help in oil exploration onshore (in the woods and fields of Nottinghamshire) that we were able to maintain some vital home supplies during the latter part of 1940.
However friendly Roosevelt might have been, the US as a whole did not make life easy for us at all in the early part of the war.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
This has got me thinking of a potentially hilarious scenario. Not one I think will come about, but if Yougov are on the money...
Tories win a majority,but that majority is only made up of Scottish MPs.
I.e - no majority in the HoC for English domestic legislation under the EVFEL mechanics.
That would be truly fascinating...
Anything less than 20-30+ Tory majority, and we will be back at the polls pretty soon.
The Labour surge does finally seem to have stopped, but there is a little extra hope for Labour - I notice that YouGov has the LibDems at 9% - Labour should definitely have its eye on 2-3% of those voters in the final week.
What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.
That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...
(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.
If JC stays in post (assuming Labour defeat) and wants to fight 2022, it is worth mentioning that he will be 73 at the time of the next election.
That is 3 years older than Trump is now. I suppose it's around the same age as Reagan in 1984, but he had served a full term by then.
I may be wrong, but surely if he stays the plan will be to parachute an acolyte into the leadership before the next election, once he's finished the momentum takeover?
Berlusconi was 76 when he led Forza Italia at the last election, Sanders was 74 when he ran for the Democratic nomination last year, I don't see age stopping Corbyn
It's been noted before, but the drift from the locals is insane - and not just for the big two. The LDs are polling 10% below what they got in the locals, a gap which has generally been 5-6%. While Labour are polling 10% ABOVE their NEV. We're through the looking glass if the polls are remotely correct.
The LibDems are the party you call when your pothole needs filling. When it's the country that needs running - not so much....
I have this vision of a caped cruiser "Lib Dem Man" who appears at night to fill potholes up and down the country.
It would have to be a Hi-Vis cape - what with Health and Safety and everything.....
Resurfacing to say I am stuck for the weekend in a place with two die hard corbynistas. I had expected one, not two. One used to vote Tory, but given the atmosphere I think I will avoid mentioning I am joining the pb Tory ranks on Thursday. These are not the positive, well meaning corbynistas, but the hang the Tories kind. Ah, family.
"Hang the Tories" are the only kind - they only smile at you to get you to the gallows.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
Mundell and BRS should both be "in the bag" too if this is correct. But that is ridiculously loose lipped from SCON
They're also telling journos OTR that they're not going to get over the line in East Ren, but neither are SLab - could be a GOTV strategy.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
This has got me thinking of a potentially hilarious scenario. Not one I think will come about, but if Yougov are on the money...
Tories win a majority,but that majority is only made up of Scottish MPs.
I.e - no majority in the HoC for English domestic legislation under the EVFEL mechanics.
That would be truly fascinating...
That's mathematically impossible.
Even if Scottish seats are required to push Con over 325 then they must have a majority in England & Wales - unless they have more than 50% of Scottish + NI seats - which would mean 39 Scottish Con seats.
It's been noted before, but the drift from the locals is insane - and not just for the big two. The LDs are polling 10% below what they got in the locals, a gap which has generally been 5-6%. While Labour are polling 10% ABOVE their NEV. We're through the looking glass if the polls are remotely correct.
The LibDems are the party you call when your pothole needs filling. When it's the country that needs running - not so much....
I have this vision of a caped cruiser "Lib Dem Man" who appears at night to fill potholes up and down the country.
It would have to be a Hi-Vis cape - what with Health and Safety and everything.....
Made from hemp? And he would of course be bearded.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
This has got me thinking of a potentially hilarious scenario. Not one I think will come about, but if Yougov are on the money...
Tories win a majority,but that majority is only made up of Scottish MPs.
I.e - no majority in the HoC for English domestic legislation under the EVFEL mechanics.
That would be truly fascinating...
Fascinating, but won't happen. The Tories will definitely have a majority in England after this election.
Download music festival next weekend. Alot of (Mainly Corbyn) voters will head down Thursday to get decent camping spots, that is around 50,000 people.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
This has got me thinking of a potentially hilarious scenario. Not one I think will come about, but if Yougov are on the money...
Tories win a majority,but that majority is only made up of Scottish MPs.
I.e - no majority in the HoC for English domestic legislation under the EVFEL mechanics.
That would be truly fascinating...
Wouldn't they have to win more than half the Scottish seats for that to happen?
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)
Got to wonder if some group of mouthbreathers from 4chan have been gaming the online polling systems "for the lulz" and will let us all in on the joke after the election results
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
This has got me thinking of a potentially hilarious scenario. Not one I think will come about, but if Yougov are on the money...
Tories win a majority,but that majority is only made up of Scottish MPs.
I.e - no majority in the HoC for English domestic legislation under the EVFEL mechanics.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
This has got me thinking of a potentially hilarious scenario. Not one I think will come about, but if Yougov are on the money...
Tories win a majority,but that majority is only made up of Scottish MPs.
I.e - no majority in the HoC for English domestic legislation under the EVFEL mechanics.
That would be truly fascinating...
That's mathematically impossible.
Even if Scottish seats are required to push Con over 325 then they must have a majority in England & Wales - unless they have more than 50% of Scottish + NI seats - which would mean 39 Scottish Con seats.
Ah, crap, you're right. My grasp of parliamentary arithmetic has failed me!
Still, it's a scenario that would be fascinating if it ever occurs to a party in future.
Download music festival next weekend. Alot of (Mainly Corbyn) voters will head down Thursday to get decent camping spots, that is around 50,000 people.
No postals will have been arranged.
Is this a repeat of the claimed story that loads of youngsters turned up at Glastonbury during the Brexit vote, not realising that there wasn't a polling station there?
Iff true, that would mean that seat has had MPs from three different parties in a little over 2 years.
Hubris is always a danger but I do think that seat is done. Get the troops in Aberdeen South and Angus.
I want Moray and Perth & North Perthshire to go blue.
Not only would it be profitable, it would be hilarious.
Full disclosure, I stuck some money on David Mundell losing as an anti-hubris bet.
I think they are both very big asks. The SNP must be strong favourites for both. The 3 border seats, West Aberdeenshire and (probably) East Renfrewshire. After that Aberdeen South, Perth and North Perthshire, Edinburgh SW, Moray even Gordon are all chances but all odds against. Can they land more than one?
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
This has got me thinking of a potentially hilarious scenario. Not one I think will come about, but if Yougov are on the money...
Tories win a majority,but that majority is only made up of Scottish MPs.
I.e - no majority in the HoC for English domestic legislation under the EVFEL mechanics.
That would be truly fascinating...
I don't think that is possible given the SNP will have at least 45 seats. If the Tories have a majority overall they have a bigger majority in England.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)
Is it my imagination, or do the Liberal Democrats (or Liberals) need someone with serious personal flaws to perform well? Put a prissy vicar in charge and they sink without a trace.
Thorpe. Ashdown. Kennedy.
Conspiracy to murder, adultery, alcoholism.
Just think what the LibDems could have achieved with Huhne or Oaten in charge.
Being a bit unfair to Clegg. He doesn't seem to have been anything other than a decent if misguided fellow and he did take them into Government for the first time in many decades.
Yes, his huge flaw was taking them into government (on the terms offered).
He was faced with an impossible situation given the economic situation. He plumped for giving the country a stable government for 5 years.
He acted in the national interest, but destroyed his party in the process. I would not have wanted to have been in his position. I suspect history will judge him kindly.
I have a lot of time for the likes of Clegg, and more so Alexander, Webb, Lamb...They all took their role seriously and acted in the national interest.
I am sure Danny Alexander especially has all sorts of shit he could have spun about the Tories in 2015, but I think he released one story that the Tories once considered something and the Lib Dems stopped it, and that was it.
But even 2 years down the line, nobody has a bad word to say about the Park Ranger and he says nothing about anybody else.
Danny Alexander was class and a great attribute to the UK political scene. Steven Webb was another. There was a lot of talent in the pre-2015 Lib Dems. Post, not so much.
There's Lamb. And Tom Brake's alright.
Sad, really, that the two sitting LibDems most likely to lose their seats are their brightest stars.
Clegg, anyone?
Second on Lamb. I can't reveal on here some of the stuff I know about what he did in government, but it was extremely impressive and principled. And a lot of good for some very vulnerable people should have come from it.
Lamb is a legend along mental health administrators
The Labour surge does finally seem to have stopped, but there is a little extra hope for Labour - I notice that YouGov has the LibDems at 9% - Labour should definitely have its eye on 2-3% of those voters in the final week.
What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.
That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...
(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.
44% might be enough for May to get the most votes ever, if turnout is around 70%.
Iff true, that would mean that seat has had MPs from three different parties in a little over 2 years.
Hubris is always a danger but I do think that seat is done. Get the troops in Aberdeen South and Angus.
I want Moray and Perth & North Perthshire to go blue.
Not only would it be profitable, it would be hilarious.
Full disclosure, I stuck some money on David Mundell losing as an anti-hubris bet.
I think they are both very big asks. The SNP must be strong favourites for both. The 3 border seats, West Aberdeenshire and (probably) East Renfrewshire. After that Aberdeen South, Perth and North Perthshire, Edinburgh SW, Moray even Gordon are all chances but all odds against. Can they land more than one?
Nobody has got rich overestimating Scottish Tory performances in general elections since 1992.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
This has got me thinking of a potentially hilarious scenario. Not one I think will come about, but if Yougov are on the money...
Tories win a majority,but that majority is only made up of Scottish MPs.
I.e - no majority in the HoC for English domestic legislation under the EVFEL mechanics.
That would be truly fascinating...
Wouldn't they have to win more than half the Scottish seats for that to happen?
It's been noted before, but the drift from the locals is insane - and not just for the big two. The LDs are polling 10% below what they got in the locals, a gap which has generally been 5-6%. While Labour are polling 10% ABOVE their NEV. We're through the looking glass if the polls are remotely correct.
The LibDems are the party you call when your pothole needs filling. When it's the country that needs running - not so much....
Ive said this before, the lib Dems win in some local elections because the achieve differential turn out of their supporters than their opposition. They can engage with people concerned about their local community. I told Paddy on the night of the 2010 election that evan if we did well tonight many lib Dems were going to lose their seats on councils in the south because the 35% extra votes will go the way of the national vote because they turn up and vote the ticket without considering local issues. I know it saves money to hold the elections at the same time but I believe it distorts what should be a local contest
Download music festival next weekend. Alot of (Mainly Corbyn) voters will head down Thursday to get decent camping spots, that is around 50,000 people.
No postals will have been arranged.
Don't worry, they'll go and vote at 7am before they set off.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)
Better invest in a good stopper or it will spoil
Sorry, Malc. This election is not going to be a great one for the SNP.
Download music festival next weekend. Alot of (Mainly Corbyn) voters will head down Thursday to get decent camping spots, that is around 50,000 people.
No postals will have been arranged.
If it comes down to the Tories needing this kind of stuff to go right for them, we are all in big trouble...
How many more U bends can May make: The Conservatives have U-turned on a flagship pledge to build “a new generation” of social housing announced in their manifesto just weeks ago.
Theresa May personally promised her policy would deliver “a constant supply of new homes for social rent”, but her housing minister has now admitted planned homes would in fact be of a significantly less affordable type.
The embarrassing admission represents the second about-turn on a Conservative manifesto pledge, after the damaging furore around the “dementia tax”.
Even if Corbyn ends up Prime Minister, it would require a lot of coalition building.
If Labour were the largest party in a hung parliament, who would stop them forming a minority government?
Errr: the other parties? The SNP *might* abstain. But then again, they might not.
If Corbyn were PM he would be certain to push for special status for Northern Ireland in the Brexit negotiations and that would open the door to the SNP. Why would they not seize the chance? The only chance the Tories would have would be to give the SNP a better offer.
The Labour surge does finally seem to have stopped, but there is a little extra hope for Labour - I notice that YouGov has the LibDems at 9% - Labour should definitely have its eye on 2-3% of those voters in the final week.
What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.
That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...
(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.
44% might be enough for May to get the most votes ever, if turnout is around 70%.
Have you noticed people talking about this election? I haven't. I'm going for 61-62%.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)
Better invest in a good stopper or it will spoil
Sorry, Malc. This election is not going to be a great one for the SNP.
I know that but it will be more than good enough , they will be close to 50 which is a landslide.
How many more U bends can May make: The Conservatives have U-turned on a flagship pledge to build “a new generation” of social housing announced in their manifesto just weeks ago.
Theresa May personally promised her policy would deliver “a constant supply of new homes for social rent”, but her housing minister has now admitted planned homes would in fact be of a significantly less affordable type.
The embarrassing admission represents the second about-turn on a Conservative manifesto pledge, after the damaging furore around the “dementia tax”.
Tbh that is better - what this country needs is quality new homes. The better the homes, the better.
The Labour surge does finally seem to have stopped, but there is a little extra hope for Labour - I notice that YouGov has the LibDems at 9% - Labour should definitely have its eye on 2-3% of those voters in the final week.
What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.
That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...
(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.
44% might be enough for May to get the most votes ever, if turnout is around 70%.
Have you noticed people talking about this election? I haven't. I'm going for 61-62%.
I mentioned this yesterday. Two trips to supposed ultra marginal Bath, very little signs of an election, even on the university campus. Certainly no sign of hoards of Moamentumers.
It was only when I headed out into the sticks was I assaulted by wall to wall Jacob Rees Mogg placards spoiling the view of the nice countryside.
The Labour surge does finally seem to have stopped, but there is a little extra hope for Labour - I notice that YouGov has the LibDems at 9% - Labour should definitely have its eye on 2-3% of those voters in the final week.
What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.
That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...
(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.
44% might be enough for May to get the most votes ever, if turnout is around 70%.
Have you noticed people talking about this election? I haven't. I'm going for 61-62%.
I have noticed people talking about it. But I'm also going for low 60s.
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.
Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)
Better invest in a good stopper or it will spoil
Sorry, Malc. This election is not going to be a great one for the SNP.
I know that but it will be more than good enough , they will be close to 50 which is a landslide.
I reckon they'll be closer to 40 than 50. Which is, as you say, a landslide.
If JC stays in post (assuming Labour defeat) and wants to fight 2022, it is worth mentioning that he will be 73 at the time of the next election.
That is 3 years older than Trump is now. I suppose it's around the same age as Reagan in 1984, but he had served a full term by then.
I may be wrong, but surely if he stays the plan will be to parachute an acolyte into the leadership before the next election, once he's finished the momentum takeover?
Yes, I wouldn't put much money on Corbyn being Labour's candidate for PM at the next election. I think the campaign has made me quite hopeful about Labour's future. The moderates can hardly argue now that there's no appetite for left(ish) politics. So I think that rather than split, the party will try to adapt, and in a couple of years time they'll elect someone he approves of, with Corbyn becoming the carnival barker.
This scenario ought to worry people of a rightwards persuasion - if Corbyn had crashed and burned, the chances are that, whatever pains Labour went through after the election, there'd be a New New Labour to fight the next election. As it is, the Labour Party that's going to fight in 2022 is going to be (a) relatively left-wing and (b) successful. Eek.
Iff true, that would mean that seat has had MPs from three different parties in a little over 2 years.
Hubris is always a danger but I do think that seat is done. Get the troops in Aberdeen South and Angus.
I want Moray and Perth & North Perthshire to go blue.
Not only would it be profitable, it would be hilarious.
Full disclosure, I stuck some money on David Mundell losing as an anti-hubris bet.
I think they are both very big asks. The SNP must be strong favourites for both. The 3 border seats, West Aberdeenshire and (probably) East Renfrewshire. After that Aberdeen South, Perth and North Perthshire, Edinburgh SW, Moray even Gordon are all chances but all odds against. Can they land more than one?
Nobody has got rich overestimating Scottish Tory performances in general elections since 1992.
That's seared on my mind.
Ruth Davidson is the game changer. She gets the Tories places they simply don't reach in the rest of the UK. We need her really badly but how long can the UK do without her at the very top? There is not enough talent in our politics. She stands out.
Nicola is a seriously good politician. Only Ruth keeps her in check.
The Labour surge does finally seem to have stopped, but there is a little extra hope for Labour - I notice that YouGov has the LibDems at 9% - Labour should definitely have its eye on 2-3% of those voters in the final week.
What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.
That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...
(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.
44% might be enough for May to get the most votes ever, if turnout is around 70%.
Have you noticed people talking about this election? I haven't. I'm going for 61-62%.
Agree most people don't care a hoot, fed up with duplitious politicians and voting
The Labour surge does finally seem to have stopped, but there is a little extra hope for Labour - I notice that YouGov has the LibDems at 9% - Labour should definitely have its eye on 2-3% of those voters in the final week.
What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.
That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...
(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.
44% might be enough for May to get the most votes ever, if turnout is around 70%.
Have you noticed people talking about this election? I haven't. I'm going for 61-62%.
this is probably a silly calculation and comparison but Scottish turnout in the GE following their IndyRef was 85% of the ref.
If same happens now 85% of 72% Euref would be about 61% so you could be right.
Comments
Sad, really, that the two sitting LibDems most likely to lose their seats are their brightest stars.
Clegg, anyone?
This Labour campaign has been much more cunning and well executed.
*Or Webb/Lamb.
Anyway, the time for me to sod off has arrived. Don't get too giddy over the polls.
Kinnock was highly effective as a campaigner. He just struggled to translate that into votes (although it should be noted by 1992 he had added six points to Labour's vote, almost a 25% increase on 1983).
That is 3 years older than Trump is now. I suppose it's around the same age as Reagan in 1984, but he had served a full term by then.
I may be wrong, but surely if he stays the plan will be to parachute an acolyte into the leadership before the next election, once he's finished the momentum takeover?
To think a major attack against Cameron being allowed to be PM was he was once in a posh drinking club and smoked the odd joint. That was repeated ad infinitum.
Now we have a genuine terrorist sympathizer, with a marxist as potential chancellor, a communist campaign organizer and a home secretary who wanted the IRA to win.
We need more Lib Dems round my way! The roads are a disgrace.
Actually given the Tories, certainly, and the Labour, likely, don't have the slightest clue on the main thing facing the country, ie Brexit, maybe the pothole fillers should be called in
I would happily have Alexander, Webb, Browne, Lamb and perhaps even expense fiddler Laws in government. Actual talent. Just compare that to especially Team Twat!!!
Not only would it be profitable, it would be hilarious.
Full disclosure, I stuck some money on David Mundell losing as an anti-hubris bet.
Tories win a majority,but that majority is only made up of Scottish MPs.
I.e - no majority in the HoC for English domestic legislation under the EVFEL mechanics.
That would be truly fascinating...
Getting a bizarre mix of hubris and dampening down of expectations from SCON & their MSM fanboys (Massie, Daislie et al). I think Scotland is shaping up yet again to producing some surprising results !!
For just under a year from May 1940 (Dunkirk) to March 1941 (Lend Lease act) we did effectively stand alone. An example is oil. Fearful of it falling into German hands the US had a ban on the export of all oil technology to the UK. It was only because many sympathetic American oil men broke the law and came over to the UK to help in oil exploration onshore (in the woods and fields of Nottinghamshire) that we were able to maintain some vital home supplies during the latter part of 1940.
However friendly Roosevelt might have been, the US as a whole did not make life easy for us at all in the early part of the war.
What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.
That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...
(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.
Even if Scottish seats are required to push Con over 325 then they must have a majority in England & Wales - unless they have more than 50% of Scottish + NI seats - which would mean 39 Scottish Con seats.
No postals will have been arranged.
Even if Corbyn ends up Prime Minister, it would require a lot of coalition building.
Still, it's a scenario that would be fascinating if it ever occurs to a party in future.
So Mike and myself are in the same position as the rest of you.
I did urge every pollster to send me an embargoed poll this campaign.
They said no.
That's seared on my mind.
ahahahahahahahaha
The Conservatives have U-turned on a flagship pledge to build “a new generation” of social housing announced in their manifesto just weeks ago.
Theresa May personally promised her policy would deliver “a constant supply of new homes for social rent”, but her housing minister has now admitted planned homes would in fact be of a significantly less affordable type.
The embarrassing admission represents the second about-turn on a Conservative manifesto pledge, after the damaging furore around the “dementia tax”.
It was only when I headed out into the sticks was I assaulted by wall to wall Jacob Rees Mogg placards spoiling the view of the nice countryside.
This scenario ought to worry people of a rightwards persuasion - if Corbyn had crashed and burned, the chances are that, whatever pains Labour went through after the election, there'd be a New New Labour to fight the next election. As it is, the Labour Party that's going to fight in 2022 is going to be (a) relatively left-wing and (b) successful. Eek.
Comres
North East
Tories 38%
Labour 49%
LD 8%
North West
Tories 45%
Labour 44%
LD 7%
Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48%
Labour 43%
LD 4%
West Midlands
Tories 50%
Labour 37%
LD 4%
East Midlands
Tories 56%
Labour 30%
LD 9%
East
Tories 56%
Labour 29%
LD 8%
London
Tories 39%
Labour 46%
LD 6%
South East
Tories 51%
Labour 28%
LD 12%
South West
Tories 51%
Labour 30%
LD 16%
Scotland
Tories 32%
Labour 15%
SNP 40%
LD 9%
Wales
Tories 43%
Labour 32%
LD 6%
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent-Sunday-Mirror_VI-and-political-poll_2nd-June-2017_654412.pdf
Nicola is a seriously good politician. Only Ruth keeps her in check.
If same happens now 85% of 72% Euref would be about 61% so you could be right.
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/871068258480377856
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/871068337551355905