It is not just that the various polls are at such odds with one another it is that they are moving in opposite directions some showing the gap narrowing significantly and others showing it widening. I don't think that there is going to be anything like a consensus between now and polling day so best bet is to look at the raw figures and make your own adjustments (or none at all)
I am working very hard this week. Including conference and Black Tie dinner Friday up at the Crieff Hydro. Where I intend to get blootered celebrating the "shock" Labour win
The Survation poll is saying 72% of their sample watched the QT debate. 72% of this country/electorate did not watch the debate. We know this because of the viewing figures it got.
Calm down.
I am calm. The Tories will probably win because no poll lead that big has ever been overturned that quickly. It almost certainly won't happen. But that it could happen, and that the Labour surge is either sweeping you away or a phantom is shitting you and PB Tories up and it's funny.
This should have been a coronation. May was so strong. Jeremy shot British soldiers in Ireland or something. A landslide if there ever was to be one. That pants are being trollied shows how much of an epic fail this Tory campaign has been.
You went from 'shock Labour win' to 'Tories will probably win' in minutes. Okay....
May isn't strong. Her and Corbyn are probably the worse people in recent British political history to contest a GE as candidates for PM.
I'm glad you find it funny. I don't find it funny that the country faces a choice between Mrs Incompetant and Mr Incompetant.
I do find the polls being rather ridiculous funny though.
These polls are probably the best of all worlds for the Tories. Enough of them reassuring that there is a chance of a comfortable Tory majority, but a few "maybe just maybe" polls to ensure no complacency and the voters turn out.
O/T does anyone think there's any validity in thinking that close polls are also good because they might scare "moderate" anti-Corbyn Labour voters as well. Some murmurings about this from some Labour MPs i think.
So Sturgeon was visiting Ayrshire constituencies. I may regret not placing those long odd bets after all.
She was also in Biggar today which is in DCT...
Yeah, the Biggar trip has thrown me for a loop but the fact is that DCT is such a grab bag disparate area that the Biggar trip might have actually been about neighbouring constituencies.
We'd all be happier with a nice cuddly father figure dictator. Then the only question would be if the government would get re-elected with 99.5% or 99.8%
These pollsters don't know shit anymore LOL. +6, +12, +1 leads for the Conservatives.
Weren't Survation the people telling us that 82% of 18-24-year-olds say that are certain to vote, when only 66% of us are registered (that we know of?)
82% of the 66%.
Didn't see Survation issue that caveat....
Well Surbiton is right ofcourse, it follows in terms of logic.
But ICM had a poll that said 91% of 18-24 said they were registered when in fact only 66% were in 2015. Compared to 96% of over 65's who officially are registered. Basically the young way overestmate the how many are actually registered compared to oldies which is a much smaller gap.
Ahead of the expected polling egg on more than a few pollsters faces in 6 days time, does it really matter to their long term credibility and businesses? I mean, there's a lot of conspiracy theories about the Times-reporting YouGov poll (i.e. Murdoch wanted something to scare the Tories with) but common sense would seem to suggest that pollsters *do* care about their reputation, so wouldn't road test dodgy methodologies until they got something that fit the Labour bounce that the right-wing press needed to shore up the Tory support following the manifesto grumbles.
Being a cock-up rather than conspiracy kind of a guy, I'm left thinking that some of the polling companies really do road-test 'experimental' methodologies, because there are usually a whole load of caveats, and in any case by the time of the next election we'll all have forgotten the inaccuracies (and in the meantime, the more eye-catching pollsters will have plenty of business from increase brand recognition).
Does anyone thing pollsters are immune to this sort of thing? And would you agree that, for a bit of short-term stick from the twitterati, none of this really damages reputations much in the long-term.
I appreciate this leaves one with a very jaundiced view of polling as a profession, but their actions do have consequences, and I'd love to know a straw poll (no pun intended) amongst PB 'users'. Genuinely think. Thanks for any opinions.
Whilst I live in hope that last night’s debate may help burst the Corbyn bubble, I am bewildered at the total lack of questioning by the media of the credentials to govern of three long-term, serially rebellious, career politician backbenchers with no ministerial or shadow ministerial experience between them prior to Corbyn’s appointment. How can these people possibly be entrusted with running the country? What experience can they draw on? Do they have the remotest inkling of how government really works? Nor has there been anything approaching a forensic examination of their magic money tree manifesto. Lacklustre does not even begin to describe the Conservative campaign, but I find it inconceivable that 35% - 40% of the electorate can truly want this toxic trio at the helm.
We need two concurrent threads to split the polls accordingly.. One for pb Tory bed wetters re survation and pampers pundits, the other for pb Tory complacents like me....for comres and orb.
I guess one danger for Labour is that "grown up" LibDems see a lead of one, panic, and vote Tory; but the underlying position is actually a lead of 10. The accidental landslide.
IIRC there was a poll which showed the Leave lead exactly as it was in the results but the pollster didn't publish it, could have sworn it was Survation but ah well.
Faisal IslamVerified account @faisalislam Following More Same poll says Corbyn "won" the QT debate - ie among the 72% who watched, 36% said it made them more likely to vote Labour, 24% less (+12)
72% of the Survation poll watched QT...
What was it some people on here have been saying about polls polling only the politically engaged?
Magnifico Giganticus
Asimov/Foundation fan? If so an even warmer welcome.
Thank you, however gratitude is best and most effective when it does not evaporate in empty phrases. But alas, good sir, I am but a mass of empty phrases, it would seem.
I guess one danger for Labour is that "grown up" LibDems see a lead of one, panic, and vote Tory; but the underlying position is actually a lead of 10. The accidental landslide.
IIRC there was a poll which showed the Leave lead exactly as it was in the results but the pollster didn't publish it, could have sworn it was Survation but ah well.
yes u are right Survation did both what Dan is qouting above and a poll for UKIP that showed it 52-48 for LEAVE on the night of the poll. They are a good pollster normally, but not if they are doing a poll over one saturday like this one. That is just silly.
Comments
I don't think that there is going to be anything like a consensus between now and polling day so best bet is to look at the raw figures and make your own adjustments (or none at all)
May isn't strong. Her and Corbyn are probably the worse people in recent British political history to contest a GE as candidates for PM.
I'm glad you find it funny. I don't find it funny that the country faces a choice between Mrs Incompetant and Mr Incompetant.
I do find the polls being rather ridiculous funny though.
O/T does anyone think there's any validity in thinking that close polls are also good because they might scare "moderate" anti-Corbyn Labour voters as well. Some murmurings about this from some Labour MPs i think.
OLD NEWS
Last night was a gamechanger!!!!!
But ICM had a poll that said 91% of 18-24 said they were registered when in fact only 66% were in 2015. Compared to 96% of over 65's who officially are registered. Basically the young way overestmate the how many are actually registered compared to oldies which is a much smaller gap.
Ahead of the expected polling egg on more than a few pollsters faces in 6 days time, does it really matter to their long term credibility and businesses? I mean, there's a lot of conspiracy theories about the Times-reporting YouGov poll (i.e. Murdoch wanted something to scare the Tories with) but common sense would seem to suggest that pollsters *do* care about their reputation, so wouldn't road test dodgy methodologies until they got something that fit the Labour bounce that the right-wing press needed to shore up the Tory support following the manifesto grumbles.
Being a cock-up rather than conspiracy kind of a guy, I'm left thinking that some of the polling companies really do road-test 'experimental' methodologies, because there are usually a whole load of caveats, and in any case by the time of the next election we'll all have forgotten the inaccuracies (and in the meantime, the more eye-catching pollsters will have plenty of business from increase brand recognition).
Does anyone thing pollsters are immune to this sort of thing? And would you agree that, for a bit of short-term stick from the twitterati, none of this really damages reputations much in the long-term.
I appreciate this leaves one with a very jaundiced view of polling as a profession, but their actions do have consequences, and I'd love to know a straw poll (no pun intended) amongst PB 'users'. Genuinely think. Thanks for any opinions.
WillS
I don't believe youth turnout will be the same as 2015.
http://survation.com/snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory/
Is that aware of the QT on Friday or the debate earlier in the week? Or the other debates? Or anything else?
So the scores on the doors of 'who won?' are made up of people who didn't actually watch the debate but heard something was on and made a guess.
If only Hari Seldon had had a similar grasp of mathematics then I would have controlled the galaxy!
Magnifico Giganticus
NEW THREAD
A 3 and a 15 would be nice...
"On a scale of 1 to 10 how much whiter than white does Daz get your KKK robes?"
It's the Final Countdown.
(picture of Corbyn). Call me, Maybe?
Please, please tell me now.
Mail on Sunday scares Tory leaning readers into voting on Thursday...