North East Tories 38% +13% Labour 49% +2% LD 8% -1%
North West Tories 45% +14% Labour 44% -1% LD 7% n/c
Yorkshire and Humber Tories 48% +16% Labour 43% +4% LD 4% -3%
West Midlands Tories 50% +9% Labour 37% +5% LD 4% -2%
East Midlands Tories 56% +13% Labour 30% -2% LD 9% +4%
East Tories 56% +7% Labour 29% +7% LD 8% n/c
London Tories 39% +4% Labour 46%+2% LD 6% -2%
South East Tories 51% n/c Labour 28% +10% LD 12% +3%
South West Tories 51% +5% Labour 30% +13% LD 16% +1%
Scotland Tories 32% +17% Labour 15% -9% SNP 40% -10% LD 9% +2%
Wales Tories 43% +16% Labour 32% -5% LD 6% n/c
I just put in the change since 2015. Find it hard to believe that the Tories could be flat in the South East and up mid teens in the North
I'd assumed the Wales numbers were wrong and transposed. Very bad for Labour.
Labour's position in the SW looks like a lot of the LibDems tactical voting unwinding. On the face of it, 2 Plymouth seats go Labour - but maybe not, as only 2,000 LD votes in 2015 in Plymouth Sutton and Devonport to unwind and only 1,200 in Moor View
Yougov has Plymouth Sutton for Lab.
Cambourne and Redruth is 41 at Bet365. just the place for red kippers to go all Corbyn.
North East Tories 38% +13% Labour 49% +2% LD 8% -1%
North West Tories 45% +14% Labour 44% -1% LD 7% n/c
Yorkshire and Humber Tories 48% +16% Labour 43% +4% LD 4% -3%
West Midlands Tories 50% +9% Labour 37% +5% LD 4% -2%
East Midlands Tories 56% +13% Labour 30% -2% LD 9% +4%
East Tories 56% +7% Labour 29% +7% LD 8% n/c
London Tories 39% +4% Labour 46%+2% LD 6% -2%
South East Tories 51% n/c Labour 28% +10% LD 12% +3%
South West Tories 51% +5% Labour 30% +13% LD 16% +1%
Scotland Tories 32% +17% Labour 15% -9% SNP 40% -10% LD 9% +2%
Wales Tories 43% +16% Labour 32% -5% LD 6% n/c
I just put in the change since 2015. Find it hard to believe that the Tories could be flat in the South East and up mid teens in the North
Subsamples are often likely to produce strange results - the Conservatives are not on 43% in Wales for example.
But I wouldn't underestimate how much of the UKIP vote in southern England was formerly Labour or LibDem and anti-Conservative and is now moving to Labour for that reason.
I am convinced despite the received wisdom here on PB, that many UKIPers are returning to Labour.
It is very reminiscent of Black voters in 2008 leaving Hillary for Obama once they began to realise the he could actually win.
Yeah the anti immigration Little Englanders were just waiting for a multi culti loving IRA supporter to come along
They also like nationalisation and an insurgent outsider...
Yes the 15% UKIP-to-Lab movements recorded a couple of weeks ago were notable for being higher than the Lab/Tory traffic.
Here's a thought. In the old days of phone polling, the polls used to get done over a period of several days. This one is done "in a morning". I wonder if the dramatically reduced polling periods these days may have their own effects on polling outcomes, and making them ever more "self selecting, first come first serve".
Have to say so far this is a hell of a game. The EPL has a lot of catching up to do.
what about the scottish premiership?
My team cannot even reach the giddy heights of the SPL having lost in the playoff. Its painful.
I knew that you were a decent bloke, the fact that you are a fellow Arab proves it!
I was there when we beat Barca home and away. And in both legs of the EUFA Cup final. And when we beat Borussia 5-0. Those were the days.
Rather envious of people a little older than myself as I was too young to go on my own. Pretty good Barca team back then with Hughes and Lineker up front and El Tel as the manager.
ET go home banner, Hughes, what a waste of money sung all night.
Faisal IslamVerified account @faisalislam Following More Same poll says Corbyn "won" the QT debate - ie among the 72% who watched, 36% said it made them more likely to vote Labour, 24% less (+12)
72% of the Survation poll watched QT...
What was it some people on here have been saying about polls polling only the politically engaged?
If I (a Labour voter and volunteer) promise you that the Tories are going to get a majority of 50+ will you believe me and spend the next few days in calm repose? And is that reassurance worth a free signed copy of your latest book?
Faisal IslamVerified account @faisalislam Following More Same poll says Corbyn "won" the QT debate - ie among the 72% who watched, 36% said it made them more likely to vote Labour, 24% less (+12)
72% of the Survation poll watched QT...
What was it some people on here have been saying about polls polling only the politically engaged?
I am working very hard this week. Including conference and Black Tie dinner Friday up at the Crieff Hydro. Where I intend to get blootered celebrating the "shock" Labour win
The Survation poll is saying 72% of their sample watched the QT debate. 72% of this country/electorate did not watch the debate. We know this because of the viewing figures it got.
Is that what he's saying? If he is, then the poll is junk.
I can't read it any other way. Among the 72% that watched. I thought it might have been the sum of more and less, but that only gets to 60, so it isn't a DK thing.
I've been thinking about all the talk of Corbyn having a great campaign and May having a crap one. Is this really the case?
We pretty much knew what may was like as soon as she took over as PM. Awkward interviews, overruling cabinet ministers, unclear/poorly leaked policies like grammar schools and an actual U-turn on the business rates.
Despite this, she remained fairly popular with the public, with leads from 10-25%. What's more, the real results, such as the local elections and the by-election gain confirmed that this was real.
On the other hand, Corbyn was always fairly confident giving speeches and debating, because he's been doing it for so long, and he believes in most of what he is selling. The contents of the manifesto, i.e. poorly costed giveaways, had always been one of his selling points.
So if the campaigns haven't really given us any new information, why have the polls (and possibly voting behaviour) changed so much?
In my opinion, it's the media. The Tories were on course for a crushing victory and remained in that position for about a month. This makes for extremely boring media coverage, so all but the most right-wing media have been much more critical of May (and to a lesser extent, more generous to Corbyn). The fact that impartiality rules kick in for TV coverage also affects things.
So my point is that we're seeing the same May and Corbyn that we did for months before with the big leads, but now the media is trying to make things more interesting with much more May scrutiny. For example, the amount of coverage given to 'Garden tax' vs. 'Dementia tax'.
It is only June 3rd. We already can announce the silliest post of the year. It is the Meejia's fault !
6% swing in a matter of days when both reds and blues have had a tricky week? Forgive my skepticism. If the survation poll suggests 72% of those polled watched QT then clearly we have a very poor representative sample, I would also think the general consensus was a narrow May QT victory rather than a clear Corbyn win.
These pollsters don't know shit anymore LOL. +6, +12, +1 leads for the Conservatives.
Weren't Survation the people telling us that 82% of 18-24-year-olds say that are certain to vote, when only 66% of us are registered (that we know of?)
This is terrible. We're just a higher youth turnout away from PM Corbyn. Theresa has to do something to appease the young - reinstate that educational payment Dave scrapped and they all rioted over; a free copy of the Beano. Anything!
@TheScreamingEagles That's still a sample which is way too politically engaged. Anyway, with the ORB poll here it's clear that this Survation poll is a huge outlier.
Perception perception perception. As Farron put it, May might be outside your house, sizing up your house right now!
Has anyone heard anyone but a cynical opponent suggest that? Just spent the week at Olympia with asset-rich baby boomers. To a man (and woman!) they supported it.../blockquote>
You are forgetting, Mr Mortimer. Baby boomers are still young enough to think that dementia will never happen to them.... But on current figures, it will hit one in six of them....
I am working very hard this week. Including conference and Black Tie dinner Friday up at the Crieff Hydro. Where I intend to get blootered celebrating the "shock" Labour win
The Survation poll is saying 72% of their sample watched the QT debate. 72% of this country/electorate did not watch the debate. We know this because of the viewing figures it got.
6% swing in a matter of days when both reds and blues have had a tricky week? Forgive my skepticism. If the survation poll suggests 72% of those polled watched QT then clearly we have a very poor representative sample, I would also think the general consensus was a narrow May QT victory rather than a clear Corbyn win.
I don't think they are saying that. I believe 72% are/were aware of what happened. Watched or heard about it.
I am working very hard this week. Including conference and Black Tie dinner Friday up at the Crieff Hydro. Where I intend to get blootered celebrating the "shock" Labour win
The Survation poll is saying 72% of their sample watched the QT debate. 72% of this country/electorate did not watch the debate. We know this because of the viewing figures it got.
Calm down.
Is that before or after weighting?
After weighting. It's now that 72% had heard/seen the debate, which is still an incredibly politically engaged sample.
Have to say so far this is a hell of a game. The EPL has a lot of catching up to do.
what about the scottish premiership?
My team cannot even reach the giddy heights of the SPL having lost in the playoff. Its painful.
I knew that you were a decent bloke, the fact that you are a fellow Arab proves it!
I was there when we beat Barca home and away. And in both legs of the EUFA Cup final. And when we beat Borussia 5-0. Those were the days.
Rather envious of people a little older than myself as I was too young to go on my own. Pretty good Barca team back then with Hughes and Lineker up front and El Tel as the manager.
Aye but we had Luggie and Elephant Man. Oh and Eammon Bannon, a really capable player. God knows what he would have earned these days. The thing I remember most of those days was Hamish McAlpine conducting the choirs from pretty much the half way circle, so confident were United of keeping the ball.
I am working very hard this week. Including conference and Black Tie dinner Friday up at the Crieff Hydro. Where I intend to get blootered celebrating the "shock" Labour win
The Survation poll is saying 72% of their sample watched the QT debate. 72% of this country/electorate did not watch the debate. We know this because of the viewing figures it got.
Calm down.
I am calm. The Tories will probably win because no poll lead that big has ever been overturned that quickly. It almost certainly won't happen. But that it could happen, and that the Labour surge is either sweeping you away or a phantom is shitting you and PB Tories up and it's funny.
This should have been a coronation. May was so strong. Jeremy shot British soldiers in Ireland or something. A landslide if there ever was to be one. That pants are being trollied shows how much of an epic fail this Tory campaign has been.
I am working very hard this week. Including conference and Black Tie dinner Friday up at the Crieff Hydro. Where I intend to get blootered celebrating the "shock" Labour win
The Survation poll is saying 72% of their sample watched the QT debate. 72% of this country/electorate did not watch the debate. We know this because of the viewing figures it got.
Calm down.
It means that isam's theory that only the politically engaged do polls is correct.
One takeaway from the Survation tables is a sharp gender divide. 34% of females will vote Conservative; 47% Labour. 46% of males will vote Conservative; 31% Labour.
6% swing in a matter of days when both reds and blues have had a tricky week? Forgive my skepticism. If the survation poll suggests 72% of those polled watched QT then clearly we have a very poor representative sample, I would also think the general consensus was a narrow May QT victory rather than a clear Corbyn win.
Faisal IslamVerified account @faisalislam Following More Same poll says Corbyn "won" the QT debate - ie among the 72% who watched, 36% said it made them more likely to vote Labour, 24% less (+12)
72% of the Survation poll watched QT...
What was it some people on here have been saying about polls polling only the politically engaged?
Magnifico Giganticus
Asimov/Foundation fan? If so an even warmer welcome.
Comments
Cambourne and Redruth is 41 at Bet365. just the place for red kippers to go all Corbyn.
Labour actually need a swing of 10% to win - 1997 proportions.
Hm.
https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellmp/status/868892676627861504
Faisal IslamVerified account
@faisalislam
Following
More
Same poll says Corbyn "won" the QT debate - ie among the 72% who watched, 36% said it made them more likely to vote Labour, 24% less (+12)
72% of the Survation poll watched QT...
What was it some people on here have been saying about polls polling only the politically engaged?
Magnifico Giganticus
Whatever it was 72% of voters did not watch it.
That's a major sampling error.
Even adding in those who saw clips on news etc the total number could not be more than about 25% maximum.
So if 72% claim to have watched it there is a massive problem.
Calm down.
I just don't see it. But hey ho, at least it's not dull.
#MegaPollingSaturday
And I will be worried yet again.
That Survation poll is garbage - 72% LOL BYE.
Magnifico Giganticus
Con 44% Lab 36%
Conservatives' lead nudges up to 9 points.
Con 45% (+1)
Lab 36% (-2)
#GeneralElection pic.twitter.com/Isc3bDuVvu
What you can put it down to I have no clue.
@TheScreamingEagles That's still a sample which is way too politically engaged. Anyway, with the ORB poll here it's clear that this Survation poll is a huge outlier.
sorry correction 72% "had seen or heard something about the debate". my fault
Told lib Dems are bleeding votes to labour. Tory hold
That's pretty much identical to all the current (non-yougov models) are suggesting:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#Predictions_one_week_before_the_vote
Damn. 2-1 Real.
This should have been a coronation. May was so strong. Jeremy shot British soldiers in Ireland or something. A landslide if there ever was to be one. That pants are being trollied shows how much of an epic fail this Tory campaign has been.
Maybe Radio 3 listeners were given a let off.
Now i am sober
He likes to write said thread between 9pm and 11pm on Saturday nights