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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you have system like first past the post then don’t get ups

SystemSystem Posts: 12,261
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you have system like first past the post then don’t get upset if voters try to game it

The above poll by BMG for the Electoral Reform Society, is striking because when exactly the same question was asked by the same pollster before GE2015 just 9% said they were ready to vote tactically.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,932
    edited June 2017
    Thirst.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm sure some will try. Good luck to them too - I usually vote with some consideration in mind other than just voting for the party or candidate I like best.

    Voting tactically is easier said than done though. It's often not easy to see who's best placed to stop your least desired outcome.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2017
    Bugger
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    Isn't this thread just Mike trying to put some credibility behind his leaflet campaign?

    Do we have any evidence of significant tactical voting in the last few elections that has changed the result very much?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    edited June 2017
    Fifth preference.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    The total of 200% seems high

    It does. :smile:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Electoral Calculus has the Lib Dems losing all their seats if that Opinium poll was the final result.

    I don't believe that would happen, mind.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    New @OpiniumResearch poll

    Con 43 (-2) Lab 37 (+2) LD 6 (-1) UKIP 5 (nc)

    Con lead down 13% since May called the GE

    Mays's ratings also falling

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/03/theresa-may-approval-rating-sinks-as-tory-lead-shrinks-to-six-points
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    Commenting on it = being upset? If people think it's a bad idea they are allowed to say so

    It just looks so Arfur Daley style dodgy!

    If I got a letter from someone I don't know telling me they make money out of betting and.... it'd go straight in the recycling
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    iirc tactical voting helps the party ahead, if (big if) there's an equal amount of tactical voting going on. Doesn't make much difference though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    I was amused

    1) Last night somebody was getting upset on mine and David Herdson's behalf that Mike had done this, I pointed out this is Mike's site, he's the editor, and he's never told me what I can and can't write

    2) Getting back home this morning, finding out I had received such a leaflet from Mike
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    May’s approval rating is down from +11% last week to +6%, while Corbyn’s holds relatively steady on -12%. Though over two in five (42%) think that May would be the better prime minister, and 26% prefer Corbyn, this is a significant change from the first poll of the campaign where 49% thought May would be the best prime minister and 14% thought Corbyn was the superior option.

    I actually think May should hide herself over the next few days. She's lucky her lead was so big, that she's still ahead of Corbyn significantly on both approval and best PM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Electoral Calculus has the Lib Dems losing all their seats if that Opinium poll was the final result.

    I don't believe that would happen, mind.

    You need special pleading for anywhere in England right now though.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    Commenting on it = being upset? If people think it's a bad idea they are allowed to say so
    Tge problem for him and the lib dems is that the letters have a national imprint so they will claim they are part if the national spend. The letters though are aimed at individual constituencies and thus should be regarded as local spend and come under the election spending rules- At 30p per leaflet thats a lot of money
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Electoral Calculus has the Lib Dems losing all their seats if that Opinium poll was the final result.

    I don't believe that would happen, mind.

    Who would have thought Orkney and Shetland would the Lib Dem's safest seat at this election.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Electoral Calculus has the Lib Dems losing all their seats if that Opinium poll was the final result.

    I don't believe that would happen, mind.

    You need special pleading for anywhere in England right now though.
    Ceredigion looks iffy too, though Plaid Cymru's own weakness helps them a fair bit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    edited June 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    I am not upset about it at all. I was interested in the legalities of such schemes this morning but only as regards the ability of people with very large sums of money to get around the EC rules. I am fairly certain Mike does not fall into that category unless he is selling all our data to Russian mafia men on the side. :)

    But after sending out leaflets encouraging tactical voting it does seem more than coincidence that we have a thread on it this afternoon.

    I would actually be more concerned about Mike's vote swapping exercise which, even after the discussions on it in 2015 still strikes me as somehow wrong in the context of voting for someone to represent you in Parliament. I would also be interested to know if the process of selling your vote in return for someone else's vote isn't on the edge of legality.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    NB you can still back Lib Dems for under 10 seats at 2.6 or so on Betfair, which is 13/8 or so. It looks to me like an evens or better shot, even allowing for the Lib Dems' focus on individual constituencies.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Sacrificing your life for Jeremy Corbyn, FFS.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Latest polling...

    image
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    I am not upset about it at all. I was interested in the legalities of such schemes this morning but only as regards the ability of people with very large sums of money to get around the EC rules. I am fairly certain Mike does not fall into that category unless he is selling all our data to Russian mafia men on the side. :)

    But after sending out leaflets encouraging tactical voting it does seem more than coincidence that we have a thread on it this afternoon.

    I would actually be more concerned about Mike's vote swapping exercise which, even after the discussions on it in 2015 still strikes me as somehow wrong in the context of voting for someone to represent you in Parliament. I would also be interested to know if the process of selling your vote in return for someone else's vote isn't on the edge of legality.
    And people like Mike are the material of opinion polls... I wonder why they don't work
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    Our very own NickP:

    https://twitter.com/Battlemuch4WW/status/871022929798103041
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,755
    timmo said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    Commenting on it = being upset? If people think it's a bad idea they are allowed to say so
    Tge problem for him and the lib dems is that the letters have a national imprint so they will claim they are part if the national spend. The letters though are aimed at individual constituencies and thus should be regarded as local spend and come under the election spending rules- At 30p per leaflet thats a lot of money
    He doesn't suggest how they should vote. He let's the facts speak for themselves.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Did TSE back the Derby winner .... :smile:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Electoral Calculus has the Lib Dems losing all their seats if that Opinium poll was the final result.

    I don't believe that would happen, mind.

    You need special pleading for anywhere in England right now though.
    Here's a thought, come Friday, will the Lib Dems be a Scotland only party?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Then when they get a tricky question on the exams......NO FAIRRRRRRRR all over snapchat.

    My experience of dealing with undergrads (albeit not for a few years) compared to back in the day. They definitely are more dedicated to study and put in more effort, but are totally fixated on what is on the "syllabus" and believe that it is somehow totally unfair if they get a bad grade if they spent hours revising.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    Have we got to wait until after 10 for most of these polls?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    NSFW https://twitter.com/ConnorJamesMoss /status/870269865692729344/photo/1

    Some serious anti-Tory GOTV going on here.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JackW said:

    Did TSE back the Derby winner .... :smile:

    What a race!
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    edited June 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Electoral Calculus has the Lib Dems losing all their seats if that Opinium poll was the final result.

    I don't believe that would happen, mind.

    Not least because, without further modification, Baxter will assume no change in the SNP vote => gain Orkney.

    Plugging in the Ipsos MORI Scotland poll, Orkney stays LD and - amusingly - the only other seat left standing is Westmoreland, by about 50 votes. A scenario in which Tim Farron would presumably resign as leader in humiliation and be replaced by Carmichael.

    [Statistical note: the Ipsos 5% in Scotland would imply a slightly better performance in England & Wales than 6% across GB would imply, hence Tiny Tim surviving by the skin of his teeth. I think.]
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2017
    Failing in my duty in reading over 1000 posts on the previous thread, perhaps PBers will take pity on poor JackW as his wallet has today all the numerical confidence of a Diane Abbott economic statement.

    Any new polls today and what's the Tory Bedwetting Index?

    Edit. Just seen OR poll
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Then when they get a tricky question on the exams......NO FAIRRRRRRRR all over snapchat.
    Still, they did have a point with the GSCE question about the Capulets.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    Barnesian said:

    timmo said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    Commenting on it = being upset? If people think it's a bad idea they are allowed to say so
    Tge problem for him and the lib dems is that the letters have a national imprint so they will claim they are part if the national spend. The letters though are aimed at individual constituencies and thus should be regarded as local spend and come under the election spending rules- At 30p per leaflet thats a lot of money
    He doesn't suggest how they should vote. He let's the facts speak for themselves.
    And I would expect the spending to be declared locally.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    NSFW https://twitter.com/ConnorJamesMoss /status/870269865692729344/photo/1

    Some serious anti-Tory GOTV going on here.

    She's risks getting a very sore jaw.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    JackW said:

    Did TSE back the Derby winner .... :smile:

    I think I saw on twitter Sgt Reckless won a race today
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    The_Apocalypse said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Sacrificing your life for Jeremy Corbyn, FFS.
    Seems about 100 people are stuck outside his meeting hall (it's full) chanting some cultish rubbish or other about Jezza.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    rottenborough said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Sacrificing your life for Jeremy Corbyn, FFS.
    Seems about 100 people are stuck outside his meeting hall (it's full) chanting some cultish rubbish or other about Jezza.

    The cult like following is very scary, especially for such a flawed individual.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Barnesian said:

    timmo said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    Commenting on it = being upset? If people think it's a bad idea they are allowed to say so
    Tge problem for him and the lib dems is that the letters have a national imprint so they will claim they are part if the national spend. The letters though are aimed at individual constituencies and thus should be regarded as local spend and come under the election spending rules- At 30p per leaflet thats a lot of money
    He doesn't suggest how they should vote. He let's the facts speak for themselves.
    He is not telling people how to vote but he has written a letter on behalf if the lib dems with the lib dem imorint on it.. you cant have it both ways...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    NeilVW said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Electoral Calculus has the Lib Dems losing all their seats if that Opinium poll was the final result.

    I don't believe that would happen, mind.

    Not least because, without further modification, Baxter will assume no change in the SNP vote => gain Orkney.

    Plugging in the Ipsos MORI Scotland poll, Orkney stays LD and - amusingly - the only other seat left standing is Westmoreland, by about 50 votes. A scenario in which Tim Farron would presumably resign as leader in humiliation and be replaced by Carmichael.

    [Statistical note: the Ipsos 5% in Scotland would imply a slightly better performance in England & Wales than 6% across GB would imply, hence Tiny Tim surviving by the skin of his teeth.]
    That's very helpful (and plausible).
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    JackW said:


    Any new polls today and what's the Tory Bedwetting Index?

    Opinium 43-37-6, and mildly damp.

    What we really want to know: when will your ARSE arise?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    I am not upset about it at all. I was interested in the legalities of such schemes this morning but only as regards the ability of people with very large sums of money to get around the EC rules. I am fairly certain Mike does not fall into that category unless he is selling all our data to Russian mafia men on the side. :)

    But after sending out leaflets encouraging tactical voting it does seem more than coincidence that we have a thread on it this afternoon.

    I would actually be more concerned about Mike's vote swapping exercise which, even after the discussions on it in 2015 still strikes me as somehow wrong in the context of voting for someone to represent you in Parliament. I would also be interested to know if the process of selling your vote in return for someone else's vote isn't on the edge of legality.
    This was discussed in 2015. It had at that stage been oked by the Electoral Commission, but actually I think it is *very* borderline. It is an offence to sell a vote for money or money's worth. A vote clearly has a potential cash value (if it didn't, you wouldn't have to legislate against selling it) - what it doesn't have is a lawful cash value. But if you are relying on that as a get-out you are very close to saying, what I am doing is legal because it is illegal.

    The question in the threader survey looks flawed to me, it doesn't address the possibility of voting for your second choice of party because you quite like it, rather than because you dislike a third party.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Pulpstar said:

    NSFW https://twitter.com/ConnorJamesMoss /status/870269865692729344/photo/1

    Some serious anti-Tory GOTV going on here.

    For those of us living in safe Tory seats....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    edited June 2017
    JackW said:

    Failing in my duty in reading over 1000 posts on the previous thread, perhaps PBers will take pity on poor JackW as his wallet has today all the numerical confidence of a Diane Abbott economic statement.

    Any new polls today and what's the Tory Bedwetting Index?

    So far Opinium, Tory lead down to just 6%

    Other polls tonight

    ComRes at 6pm,

    ICM, ORB, 2 Survation polls, one GB wide, one Scotland only, and a YouGov.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    There's going to be a wave of angst and downright anger from Jezza's crowd following next week's Tory win.

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    rottenborough said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Sacrificing your life for Jeremy Corbyn, FFS.
    Seems about 100 people are stuck outside his meeting hall (it's full) chanting some cultish rubbish or other about Jezza.

    The cult-like reverence for him is absolutely ridiculous.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Electoral Calculus has the Lib Dems losing all their seats if that Opinium poll was the final result.

    I don't believe that would happen, mind.

    Funniest result would be if the LibDems end up with just The Liar of Orkney. That seat looks a nailed on hold. The others? On 6%? Who knows. They are being bled dry by Corbyn.

    And if that isn't a damning indictment of Tim Farron.... surely the first party Leader to go on Friday?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Then when they get a tricky question on the exams......NO FAIRRRRRRRR all over snapchat.

    My experience of dealing with undergrads (albeit not for a few years) compared to back in the day. They definitely are more dedicated to study and put in more effort, but are totally fixated on what is on the "syllabus" and believe that it is somehow totally unfair if they get a bad grade if they spent hours revising.
    They're fine, so long as they don't have to think for themselves. Having to think for yourself is definitely unfair. I am glad to be out of that game.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,755
    timmo said:

    Barnesian said:

    timmo said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    Commenting on it = being upset? If people think it's a bad idea they are allowed to say so
    Tge problem for him and the lib dems is that the letters have a national imprint so they will claim they are part if the national spend. The letters though are aimed at individual constituencies and thus should be regarded as local spend and come under the election spending rules- At 30p per leaflet thats a lot of money
    He doesn't suggest how they should vote. He let's the facts speak for themselves.
    He is not telling people how to vote but he has written a letter on behalf if the lib dems with the lib dem imorint on it.. you cant have it both ways...
    I didn't see the imprint. Only got a quick glance.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    How best do I cover the unfortunate scenerio of Lib dems winning 11 seats? Currently £1,400 net profit 10 or under, £144 net profit 12 or over.

    11 seats and I lose £610
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    Failing in my duty in reading over 1000 posts on the previous thread, perhaps PBers will take pity on poor JackW as his wallet has today all the numerical confidence of a Diane Abbott economic statement.

    Any new polls today and what's the Tory Bedwetting Index?

    So far Opinium, Tory lead down to just 6%

    Other polls tonight

    ComRes at 6pm,

    ICM, ORB, 2 Survation polls, one GB wide, one Scotland only, and a YouGov.
    Thought ComRes was at 5pm? Think that BritainElects account implied so anyway.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,636
    I really, really hope that Nick Clegg holds on in Hallam.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    MyBurningEars said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Then when they get a tricky question on the exams......NO FAIRRRRRRRR all over snapchat.

    My experience of dealing with undergrads (albeit not for a few years) compared to back in the day. They definitely are more dedicated to study and put in more effort, but are totally fixated on what is on the "syllabus" and believe that it is somehow totally unfair if they get a bad grade if they spent hours revising.
    They're fine, so long as they don't have to think for themselves. Having to think for yourself is definitely unfair. I am glad to be out of that game.
    I thankfully don't deal with undergrads anymore. There is definitely a huge issue with thinking for oneself though. Effort is up, but learning for interest is way down.

    Unfortunately with grade inflation and more competition for uni places that is the game they get taught at school, then when they attend university (especially a top one) they get this horrible shock when somebody such as myself says there isn't a rigid syllabus and lets look at this because it is really rather interesting.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    The_Apocalypse said:

    May’s approval rating is down from +11% last week to +6%, while Corbyn’s holds relatively steady on -12%. Though over two in five (42%) think that May would be the better prime minister, and 26% prefer Corbyn, this is a significant change from the first poll of the campaign where 49% thought May would be the best prime minister and 14% thought Corbyn was the superior option.

    I actually think May should hide herself over the next few days. She's lucky her lead was so big, that she's still ahead of Corbyn significantly on both approval and best PM.

    She has the final interview of the campaign with Julie Etchingham on ITV on Tuesday.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    timmo said:

    Barnesian said:

    timmo said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    Commenting on it = being upset? If people think it's a bad idea they are allowed to say so
    Tge problem for him and the lib dems is that the letters have a national imprint so they will claim they are part if the national spend. The letters though are aimed at individual constituencies and thus should be regarded as local spend and come under the election spending rules- At 30p per leaflet thats a lot of money
    He doesn't suggest how they should vote. He let's the facts speak for themselves.
    He is not telling people how to vote but he has written a letter on behalf if the lib dems with the lib dem imorint on it.. you cant have it both ways...
    Whatever you do - don't tell Crick!

    Arf....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,636
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Then when they get a tricky question on the exams......NO FAIRRRRRRRR all over snapchat.

    My experience of dealing with undergrads (albeit not for a few years) compared to back in the day. They definitely are more dedicated to study and put in more effort, but are totally fixated on what is on the "syllabus" and believe that it is somehow totally unfair if they get a bad grade if they spent hours revising.
    They're fine, so long as they don't have to think for themselves. Having to think for yourself is definitely unfair. I am glad to be out of that game.
    I thankfully don't deal with undergrads anymore. There is definitely a huge issue with thinking for oneself though. Effort is up, but learning for interest is way down.
    If one is paying for one's education, one expects the exams to reflect what one has been told to study.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Then when they get a tricky question on the exams......NO FAIRRRRRRRR all over snapchat.

    My experience of dealing with undergrads (albeit not for a few years) compared to back in the day. They definitely are more dedicated to study and put in more effort, but are totally fixated on what is on the "syllabus" and believe that it is somehow totally unfair if they get a bad grade if they spent hours revising.
    When I went to university I thought the idea was you learned stuff and then they tested you at the end. It was not till my second degree that someone got took me in hand and showed how to analyse past papers for patterns, work out markers' foibles, organise group revision sessions and so on. I gather it is this sort of exam technique that was one of the factors behind grade inflation in schools (alongside taking the hard stuff out).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2017
    MarqueeMark said:

    timmo said:

    Barnesian said:

    timmo said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    Commenting on it = being upset? If people think it's a bad idea they are allowed to say so
    Tge problem for him and the lib dems is that the letters have a national imprint so they will claim they are part if the national spend. The letters though are aimed at individual constituencies and thus should be regarded as local spend and come under the election spending rules- At 30p per leaflet thats a lot of money
    He doesn't suggest how they should vote. He let's the facts speak for themselves.
    He is not telling people how to vote but he has written a letter on behalf if the lib dems with the lib dem imorint on it.. you cant have it both ways...
    Whatever you do - don't tell Crick!

    Arf....
    Honestly, who is going to read that letter and take it seriously?! Looks so moody its unreal. The only surprise is it doesn't mention Nigeria or Western Union
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    The_Apocalypse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    Failing in my duty in reading over 1000 posts on the previous thread, perhaps PBers will take pity on poor JackW as his wallet has today all the numerical confidence of a Diane Abbott economic statement.

    Any new polls today and what's the Tory Bedwetting Index?

    So far Opinium, Tory lead down to just 6%

    Other polls tonight

    ComRes at 6pm,

    ICM, ORB, 2 Survation polls, one GB wide, one Scotland only, and a YouGov.
    Thought ComRes was at 5pm? Think that BritainElects account implied so anyway.
    The memo I got from John Rentoul said 6pm
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT Well done anyone who found Wings of Eagles in the Derby. I was counting my winnings till he swept by.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    The_Apocalypse said:

    rottenborough said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Sacrificing your life for Jeremy Corbyn, FFS.
    Seems about 100 people are stuck outside his meeting hall (it's full) chanting some cultish rubbish or other about Jezza.

    The cult-like reverence for him is absolutely ridiculous.

    Trump like. Are you scared yet?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    edited June 2017
    Gallowgate said:

    I really, really hope that Nick Clegg holds on in Hallam.

    I can't remember but wasn't there a Tory vote or effort to keep in in place in 2015 in case of the need for another coalition? Or Tory voters sympathetic to the job he did under coalition. Could of sworn I read they was some tactical voting but I could be wrong. I probably would have voted for him in that situation, I really liked that coalition government.

    I guess that won't be there now. if there indeed was at that time.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Gallowgate said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Then when they get a tricky question on the exams......NO FAIRRRRRRRR all over snapchat.

    My experience of dealing with undergrads (albeit not for a few years) compared to back in the day. They definitely are more dedicated to study and put in more effort, but are totally fixated on what is on the "syllabus" and believe that it is somehow totally unfair if they get a bad grade if they spent hours revising.
    They're fine, so long as they don't have to think for themselves. Having to think for yourself is definitely unfair. I am glad to be out of that game.
    I thankfully don't deal with undergrads anymore. There is definitely a huge issue with thinking for oneself though. Effort is up, but learning for interest is way down.
    If one is paying for one's education, one expects the exams to reflect what one has been told to study.
    Yes -- students are consumers now and they want their nine grands' worth.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    Commenting on it = being upset? If people think it's a bad idea they are allowed to say so

    It just looks so Arfur Daley style dodgy!

    If I got a letter from someone I don't know telling me they make money out of betting and.... it'd go straight in the recycling
    Plus, talking about "how I make my predictions" is very Mystic Meg (and I thought contrary to Mike's philosophy that it's not about making predictions, it's about identifying value in the odds). Plus "data" is plural.

    What of course will happen now is that because this post doesn't say the letter is the most exciting development in representative democracy since 1832, two or three threads down the line some dweeb will be saying "Ooooh the PB tories were frothing with rage about OGH's letter".
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    @Indigo It was just an idea I put out there! Lots of poorer students have been put off going to uni due to the increase in tuition fees. Also, I remember reading that poorer students ended up doing less well post-graduation, than students from middle-class backgrounds, I'll try to find it.

    @MyBurningEars I liked your idea of an income debt repayment! I think in general it'd be good give teenagers classes on how to manage money and understanding finance. Good life skills.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    Gallowgate said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Then when they get a tricky question on the exams......NO FAIRRRRRRRR all over snapchat.

    My experience of dealing with undergrads (albeit not for a few years) compared to back in the day. They definitely are more dedicated to study and put in more effort, but are totally fixated on what is on the "syllabus" and believe that it is somehow totally unfair if they get a bad grade if they spent hours revising.
    They're fine, so long as they don't have to think for themselves. Having to think for yourself is definitely unfair. I am glad to be out of that game.
    I thankfully don't deal with undergrads anymore. There is definitely a huge issue with thinking for oneself though. Effort is up, but learning for interest is way down.
    If one is paying for one's education, one expects the exams to reflect what one has been told to study.
    It shouldn't be. One aspect I do think is a valid complaint, is not bad grades, but academics seeing tuition as a hindrance to their research. It is true, but until Jezza wins they need the students paying their (loaned) money and they do deserve more time / prep from academics.

    Some that I interact with are really good, but others still have this rigid "I don't answer emails outside these times" and "This is my office HOUR for the week". When somebody is paying £9k a year that isn't acceptable.

    I always tried to make myself available and told students if you come showing you have read about the topic, tried the work etc I will never give you the answer but I will help to explain things. However, I won't be happy to help you if you don't come to lectures and then just email me saying I don't understand anything.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,755
    edited June 2017
    jonny83 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    I really, really hope that Nick Clegg holds on in Hallam.

    I can't remember but wasn't there a Tory vote or effort to keep in in place in 2015 in case of the need for another coalition? Or Tory voters sympathetic to the job he did under coalition. Could of sworn I read they was some tactical voting but I could be wrong. I probably would have voted for him in that situation, I really liked that coalition government.

    I guess that won't be there now. if there indeed was at that time.
    Tories might vote tactically for him to deny Labour the seat. It's all the rage.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/870188307526897664
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't get why people are so upset about Mike's leaflet campaign. He's entitled to do as he pleases.

    Is there a link to this leaflet? It feels like a pb shibboleth. Three days of discussion and I've still no idea what it's about.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    Opinium - TMICIPM.

    I'm revising my forecast down to a Tory majority of 50-70 though.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Please can someone post a link to these letters that OGH has been sending out. I'm feeling left out.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    Gallowgate said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Then when they get a tricky question on the exams......NO FAIRRRRRRRR all over snapchat.

    My experience of dealing with undergrads (albeit not for a few years) compared to back in the day. They definitely are more dedicated to study and put in more effort, but are totally fixated on what is on the "syllabus" and believe that it is somehow totally unfair if they get a bad grade if they spent hours revising.
    They're fine, so long as they don't have to think for themselves. Having to think for yourself is definitely unfair. I am glad to be out of that game.
    I thankfully don't deal with undergrads anymore. There is definitely a huge issue with thinking for oneself though. Effort is up, but learning for interest is way down.
    If one is paying for one's education, one expects the exams to reflect what one has been told to study.
    At University one is expected to think for oneself and do what was always known as 'reading around the subject'. One should not expect to be spoon fed. University is supposed to teach independent learning and critical thought not just regurgitation of what has been taught to you.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    OUT said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    rottenborough said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Sacrificing your life for Jeremy Corbyn, FFS.
    Seems about 100 people are stuck outside his meeting hall (it's full) chanting some cultish rubbish or other about Jezza.

    The cult-like reverence for him is absolutely ridiculous.

    Trump like. Are you scared yet?
    Yes, it is like Trump. I can't say that it scares me though, I just find it a bit bizarre.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,636
    jonny83 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    I really, really hope that Nick Clegg holds on in Hallam.

    I can't remember but wasn't there a Tory vote or effort to keep in in place in 2015 in case of the need for another coalition? Or Tory voters sympathetic to the job he did under coalition. Could of sworn I read they was some tactical voting but I could be wrong. I probably would have voted for him in that situation, I really liked that coalition government.

    I guess that won't be there now. if there indeed was at that time.
    Lord Clegg of Chalfont St Giles it is then. Shame he's not allowed to be leader in that scenario.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    jonny83 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    I really, really hope that Nick Clegg holds on in Hallam.

    I can't remember but wasn't there a Tory vote or effort to keep in in place in 2015 in case of the need for another coalition? Or Tory voters sympathetic to the job he did under coalition. Could of sworn I read they was some tactical voting but I could be wrong. I probably would have voted for him in that situation, I really liked that coalition government.

    I guess that won't be there now. if there indeed was at that time.
    Yup, the Cons for Clegg.

    I declined to do so in 2015, but my father did.

    All the Tories for Clegg I know have gone back to the Blue meanies this time.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New @OpiniumResearch poll

    Con 43 (-2) Lab 37 (+2) LD 6 (-1) UKIP 5 (nc)

    Con lead down 13% since May called the GE

    Mays's ratings also falling

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/03/theresa-may-approval-rating-sinks-as-tory-lead-shrinks-to-six-points

    Blimey that came out early! :open_mouth:
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,359
    https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/871031642399408128
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/871032486708617216
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    Failing in my duty in reading over 1000 posts on the previous thread, perhaps PBers will take pity on poor JackW as his wallet has today all the numerical confidence of a Diane Abbott economic statement.

    Any new polls today and what's the Tory Bedwetting Index?

    So far Opinium, Tory lead down to just 6%

    Other polls tonight

    ComRes at 6pm,

    ICM, ORB, 2 Survation polls, one GB wide, one Scotland only, and a YouGov.
    + There might be a "surprise" given its the final weekend of the campaign?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    tlg86 said:

    Please can someone post a link to these letters that OGH has been sending out. I'm feeling left out.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/871032574080163841
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Then when they get a tricky question on the exams......NO FAIRRRRRRRR all over snapchat.

    My experience of dealing with undergrads (albeit not for a few years) compared to back in the day. They definitely are more dedicated to study and put in more effort, but are totally fixated on what is on the "syllabus" and believe that it is somehow totally unfair if they get a bad grade if they spent hours revising.
    They're fine, so long as they don't have to think for themselves. Having to think for yourself is definitely unfair. I am glad to be out of that game.
    I thankfully don't deal with undergrads anymore. There is definitely a huge issue with thinking for oneself though. Effort is up, but learning for interest is way down.
    If one is paying for one's education, one expects the exams to reflect what one has been told to study.
    At University one is expected to think for oneself and do what was always known as 'reading around the subject'. One should not expect to be spoon fed. University is supposed to teach independent learning and critical thought not just regurgitation of what has been taught to you.
    Are you from the 19th century?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/krishgm/status/871032486708617216

    Hm, isn't that an offence?
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    edited June 2017
    Gallowgate said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Then when they get a tricky question on the exams......NO FAIRRRRRRRR all over snapchat.

    My experience of dealing with undergrads (albeit not for a few years) compared to back in the day. They definitely are more dedicated to study and put in more effort, but are totally fixated on what is on the "syllabus" and believe that it is somehow totally unfair if they get a bad grade if they spent hours revising.
    They're fine, so long as they don't have to think for themselves. Having to think for yourself is definitely unfair. I am glad to be out of that game.
    I thankfully don't deal with undergrads anymore. There is definitely a huge issue with thinking for oneself though. Effort is up, but learning for interest is way down.
    If one is paying for one's education, one expects the exams to reflect what one has been told to study.
    Well, it depends what you have been told to study.

    I teach UG chemistry/chemical engineering - there has to be a strong problem solving element present, so I spend a good 5 % of my teaching time telling them that there will be unseen elements in the exam, that past papers are no guide to future ones etc etc

    But I still get semi-complaints about "that wasn't in the lecture" and "where were all the derivations".

    shrugs.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New @OpiniumResearch poll

    Con 43 (-2) Lab 37 (+2) LD 6 (-1) UKIP 5 (nc)

    Con lead down 13% since May called the GE

    Mays's ratings also falling

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/03/theresa-may-approval-rating-sinks-as-tory-lead-shrinks-to-six-points

    Blimey that came out early! :open_mouth:
    There's medicines you can take that sort out that problem.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,636
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Then when they get a tricky question on the exams......NO FAIRRRRRRRR all over snapchat.

    My experience of dealing with undergrads (albeit not for a few years) compared to back in the day. They definitely are more dedicated to study and put in more effort, but are totally fixated on what is on the "syllabus" and believe that it is somehow totally unfair if they get a bad grade if they spent hours revising.
    They're fine, so long as they don't have to think for themselves. Having to think for yourself is definitely unfair. I am glad to be out of that game.
    I thankfully don't deal with undergrads anymore. There is definitely a huge issue with thinking for oneself though. Effort is up, but learning for interest is way down.
    If one is paying for one's education, one expects the exams to reflect what one has been told to study.
    At University one is expected to think for oneself and do what was always known as 'reading around the subject'. One should not expect to be spoon fed. University is supposed to teach independent learning and critical thought not just regurgitation of what has been taught to you.
    Yes, I appreciate that. However it is not unreasonable to expect the rules of engagement to be clear if you are paying a massive amount of money for the privilege.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    Theuniondivvie said:

    twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/871031642399408128

    Better get the prison cell ready for Banksy if he does that...If I remember correctly his wife is a former labour SPAD.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Hm, isn't that an offence?

    Probably
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/871032486708617216

    Is that not breaking the law? You are giving inducements to win votes.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Some essential reading on a Twitter thread about 18-24 year olds:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/871029891873067008
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Then when they get a tricky question on the exams......NO FAIRRRRRRRR all over snapchat.

    My experience of dealing with undergrads (albeit not for a few years) compared to back in the day. They definitely are more dedicated to study and put in more effort, but are totally fixated on what is on the "syllabus" and believe that it is somehow totally unfair if they get a bad grade if they spent hours revising.
    They're fine, so long as they don't have to think for themselves. Having to think for yourself is definitely unfair. I am glad to be out of that game.
    I thankfully don't deal with undergrads anymore. There is definitely a huge issue with thinking for oneself though. Effort is up, but learning for interest is way down.
    If one is paying for one's education, one expects the exams to reflect what one has been told to study.
    ...

    Some that I interact with are really good, but others still have this rigid "I don't answer emails outside these times" and "This is my office HOUR for the week".
    ....
    On the second one, sure - but you have office HOURS to match teaching responsibility.

    On the first - no, I am not on call and the students have got to understand that. I take Wednesdays off teaching for research and working with my group. Thursday is only 24 hours away.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/871032486708617216

    Lawyer's note: this print is a souvenir piece of campaign material, it is in no way meant to influence the choices of the electorate, has no monetary value, is for amusement purposes only and is strictly not for re-sale. Terms and conditions to follow, postage not included.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/871032486708617216

    offering a bribe for a vote is illegal isn't it
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    The_Apocalypse said:

    rottenborough said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    rottenborough said:

    Polling, turn-out and the young in a nutshell?

    https://twitter.com/bekahgracedowd/status/870973426579763202

    Sacrificing your life for Jeremy Corbyn, FFS.
    Seems about 100 people are stuck outside his meeting hall (it's full) chanting some cultish rubbish or other about Jezza.

    The cult-like reverence for him is absolutely ridiculous.

    This is more 'Life of Brian' than a grown-up campaign for high office.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Small Lab turnout in Derby North. I wish I had gone now will be there tomorrow

    https://twitter.com/j_darcy_derby/status/871032005793918977/photo/1
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/871032486708617216

    offering a bribe for a vote is illegal isn't it
    Treating is the word I believe.
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 115
    noisywinter said:

    How best do I cover the unfortunate scenerio of Lib dems winning 11 seats? Currently £1,400 net profit 10 or under, £144 net profit 12 or over.

    11 seats and I lose £610

    Ladbrokes are offering 10/1 on exactly 11 seats.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New @OpiniumResearch poll

    Con 43 (-2) Lab 37 (+2) LD 6 (-1) UKIP 5 (nc)

    Con lead down 13% since May called the GE

    Mays's ratings also falling

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/03/theresa-may-approval-rating-sinks-as-tory-lead-shrinks-to-six-points

    Blimey that came out early! :open_mouth:
    There's medicines you can take that sort out that problem.
    Have you "got plans" to abandon your position again tonight before all polls are released like last week?
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    "academics seeing tuition as a hindrance to their research."

    it'd be fine if teaching wasn't basically ignored when coming up to year reviews, promotions etc etc
  • BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    rottenborough said:

    There's going to be a wave of angst and downright anger from Jezza's crowd following next week's Tory win.

    They'll blame it on people voting in pencil instead of pen.
This discussion has been closed.