politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you have system like first past the post then don’t get ups
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He's talking crap, he's talking about this BEFORE turnout adjustments.The_Apocalypse said:
Sounds like it's coming from this account: https://twitter.com/maddtabb/with_repliesbigjohnowls said:Latest Twitter rumours say Orb Lab up 3
Twitter rumours usually wrong thouh
Though he keeps on arguing that the Telegraph have tweeted it - which I haven't seen.
https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/8709718756981145600 -
Hyped polls are often boring polls.jonny83 said:
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https://twitter.com/DavidWooding/status/871082458829160449jonny83 said:ICM with interesting numbers apparently. Perhaps also a narrowing?
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lol... "in new unadjusted poll"nunu said:
He's talking crap, he's talking about this BEFORE turnout adjustments.The_Apocalypse said:
Sounds like it's coming from this account: https://twitter.com/maddtabb/with_repliesbigjohnowls said:Latest Twitter rumours say Orb Lab up 3
Twitter rumours usually wrong thouh
Though he keeps on arguing that the Telegraph have tweeted it - which I haven't seen.
https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/8709718756981145600 -
what about the scottish premiership?DavidL said:Have to say so far this is a hell of a game. The EPL has a lot of catching up to do.
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Hanretty has LD winning Orkney & Shetland but losing Westmoreland.rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.0 -
Both the Tory and Labour votes were down in Edinburgh Western last year. The former is quite remarkable when you think about the difference in Conservative Scottish opinion polls between 2016 and 2012. A substantial minority of Scottish Unionists are willing to vote tactically for the LibDems to keep the SNP out.DavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
The LDs did extremely well in Edinburgh West in the locals last month too. My guess would be LDs 21,000 votes, SNP 16,000, Con and Lab about 4,000 apiece.0 -
It looks a bit like a non-aggression pact. Parties have candidates in each other's patches but they are not trying very hard. I am in Edinburgh South. The SNP are ramping up their activity now but they have left it late. Maybe they are more confident of holding Edinburgh SW. They don't lack for activists thoughDavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
Edit. The Tories are in SW of course.0 -
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Security? or kicking the establishment in the arse? the latter won a year ago...ThomasNashe said:
That really is the long and short of it. Despite the fact that Corbyn has come across much better than May during the campaign, there is no escaping the fact that in the polling booth most voters will feel that Corbyn does not offer them the security they crave.AndyJS said:
She still has a lead because Jeremy Corbyn said a few months ago that he didn't believe in shooting terrorists (amongst other things).nunu said:Look at the sky news front page.
Tory Leader refuses to rule out tax rise
Socialist Leader of the opposition challenges Tory Leader on hoome grabbing policy.
Crap. Crap. Crap. How she still has a lead beggars belief.
http://news.sky.com/0 -
He didn't yesterday!MikeL said:
Hanretty has LD winning Orkney & Shetland but losing Westmoreland.rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.0 -
One of the replies to that...nunu said:I'm now ignoring Yougov, anyway.
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/871084158562521093
It's for the shy Tory voters to come out to bugger up the nation's future
Yes
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My team cannot even reach the giddy heights of the SPL having lost in the playoff. Its painful.initforthemoney said:
what about the scottish premiership?DavidL said:Have to say so far this is a hell of a game. The EPL has a lot of catching up to do.
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And if that's not exciting enough for you, at 22.07 SpaceX might be launching a rocket to the ISS, and landing the first stage (I think on land). It'l be telecast at www.spacex.com, although there's a good chance it'll be scrubbed due to the weather.The_Apocalypse said:
https://twitter.com/DavidWooding/status/871082458829160449jonny83 said:ICM with interesting numbers apparently. Perhaps also a narrowing?
Polls and rockets. What more does a man want?
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YouGov are gonna lead to such bedwetting that Pampers will have to make extra deliveries to PB Tories....nunu said:I'm now ignoring Yougov, anyway.
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/8710841585625210930 -
Apparently we need to invest in another klaxon.
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/8710836404989091850 -
"there's no reason why the party leader should be an MP."AnneJGP said:
Well, if the Conservatives do go into Opposition, there's no reason why the party leader should be an MP. It's fully accepted that Ms Sturgeon is SNP leader and she's not an MP. Just need a deputy leader to perform Commons functions.kle4 said:
If May does poorly to middling and SCON advance well, probably, at first. As has been advanced although it would be interesting to see what she might do, but is probably a bad idea.numbertwelve said:
I suspect we'll be seeing a lot more "will Ruth be the next Tory leader?" articles after next Thursday.TheScreamingEagles said:My biggest fear about Mrs May's crap performance is that she might have undone all the good work of Ruth Davidson.
But she is young, with plenty of time ahead. So if she is ever asked I guess she should just say she is planning to be First Minister (no laughing at the back, it's a theoretical aspiration even though it won't happen) and that is all she is focused on, without ruling out transitioning to Westminster at some point. After all, she could be First Minister (I said no laughing, it's just a hypothetical!) for a spell, then move on to Westminster to advance the cause there.
Good evening, everyone.
George Osborne?0 -
I won't even try and predict this election having believed the lib Dems couldn't fall below 30 seats, that Leicester city couldn't win the premier league, that we would vote remain and that trump couldn't win. I assume someone out there managed three out of four?0
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There also appear to be a fair few Tory canvassers and activists out and about in Edinburgh North and Leith.DavidL said:
It looks a bit like a non-aggression pact. Parties have candidates in each other's patches but they are not trying very hard. I am in Edinburgh South. The SNP are ramping up their activity now but they have left it late. Maybe they are more confident of holding Edinburgh SW. They don't lack for activists though
Incidentally there was a mention earlier of the outcome in East Renfrewshire being in the balance. The swing to the Conservatives in 2016 in that seat was relatively low (although they gained it) so I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories underperformed there, while seeing very large swings to them across Perthshire and the north east.
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It does. Unfortunately the Tories probably have the toughest egg to crack. Joanna Cherry even has the completely untypical advantage of being competent. I will be both shocked and delighted if that comes off.FF43 said:
It looks a bit like a non-aggression pact. Parties have candidates in each other's patches but they are not trying very hard. I am in Edinburgh South. The SNP are ramping up their activity now but they have left it late. Maybe they are more confident of holding Edinburgh SW. They don't lack for activists thoughDavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
Edit. The Tories are in SW of course.0 -
HYUFD said:
Regional figures
Comres vs 2015
North East
Tories 38% +13%
Labour 49% +2%
LD 8% -1%
North West
Tories 45% +14%
Labour 44% -1%
LD 7% n/c
Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48% +16%
Labour 43% +4%
LD 4% -3%
West Midlands
Tories 50% +9%
Labour 37% +5%
LD 4% -2%
East Midlands
Tories 56% +13%
Labour 30% -2%
LD 9% +4%
East
Tories 56% +7%
Labour 29% +7%
LD 8% n/c
London
Tories 39% +4%
Labour 46%+2%
LD 6% -2%
South East
Tories 51% n/c
Labour 28% +10%
LD 12% +3%
South West
Tories 51% +5%
Labour 30% +13%
LD 16% +1%
Scotland
Tories 32% +17%
Labour 15% -9%
SNP 40% -10%
LD 9% +2%
Wales
Tories 43% +16%
Labour 32% -5%
LD 6% n/c
I just put in the change since 2015. Find it hard to believe that the Tories could be flat in the South East and up mid teens in the North
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the falkirk fan at work was not happy about losing to youDavidL said:
My team cannot even reach the giddy heights of the SPL having lost in the playoff. Its painful.initforthemoney said:
what about the scottish premiership?DavidL said:Have to say so far this is a hell of a game. The EPL has a lot of catching up to do.
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YouGov's 50,000 panel updated today has Con +4 (unchanged) so surely would be a major surprise for YouGov to suddenly show a big movement in a separate poll released on the same day.0
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Just back from a view days down that way, Valley, and what a beautiful part of the country.valleyboy said:
Been canvassing today in Preseli. Yep loads of surprising Corbyn supporters and Crabb not popular, but surely not enough to cause a shock.MikeL said:Hanretty also has Con losing Preseli Pembroke - like YouGov.
Also Clwyd West - which Con won by 18% in 2015.
Many, many Crabb posters and no sign of any opposition. Just can't see him losing.0 -
This panel poll cannot show dramatic difference from yesterday as only 7000 out of 50000 changes. Maximum could be 1%.MikeL said:YouGov's 50,000 panel updated today has Con +4 (unchanged) so surely would be a major surprise for YouGov to suddenly show a big movement in a separate poll released on the same day.
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That's an interesting seat. No Green this time but that hospital campaigning independent is standing again.valleyboy said:
Been canvassing today in Preseli. Yep loads of surprising Corbyn supporters and Crabb not popular, but surely not enough to cause a shock.MikeL said:Hanretty also has Con losing Preseli Pembroke - like YouGov.
Also Clwyd West - which Con won by 18% in 2015.0 -
The Tory vote there was seriously depressed in 2015 by tactical voting for Murphy. I think the underlying vote there is better for the Tories than it looks.Dougie said:
There also appear to be a fair few Tory canvassers and activists out and about in Edinburgh North and Leith.DavidL said:
It looks a bit like a non-aggression pact. Parties have candidates in each other's patches but they are not trying very hard. I am in Edinburgh South. The SNP are ramping up their activity now but they have left it late. Maybe they are more confident of holding Edinburgh SW. They don't lack for activists though
Incidentally there was a mention earlier of the outcome in East Renfrewshire being in the balance. The swing to the Conservatives in 2016 in that seat was relatively low (although they gained it) so I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories underperformed there, while seeing very large swings to them across Perthshire and the north east.0 -
Leicester City made it to the quarters this year, and made Atletico work for it.DavidL said:
My team cannot even reach the giddy heights of the SPL having lost in the playoff. Its painful.initforthemoney said:
what about the scottish premiership?DavidL said:Have to say so far this is a hell of a game. The EPL has a lot of catching up to do.
Both Sevilla and Atletico were class acts to watch.0 -
One more push...
If things continue the way they are going then anybody who is a member of the Conservative party or UKIP should be getting worried...
'First they came for the Tories, then the UKIPpers, then the....' etc
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Is Labour finally becoming the second party in the South West. Ed Miliband's organisational network beginning to work .PaulM said:HYUFD said:Regional figures
Comres vs 2015
North East
Tories 38% +13%
Labour 49% +2%
LD 8% -1%
North West
Tories 45% +14%
Labour 44% -1%
LD 7% n/c
Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48% +16%
Labour 43% +4%
LD 4% -3%
West Midlands
Tories 50% +9%
Labour 37% +5%
LD 4% -2%
East Midlands
Tories 56% +13%
Labour 30% -2%
LD 9% +4%
East
Tories 56% +7%
Labour 29% +7%
LD 8% n/c
London
Tories 39% +4%
Labour 46%+2%
LD 6% -2%
South East
Tories 51% n/c
Labour 28% +10%
LD 12% +3%
South West
Tories 51% +5%
Labour 30% +13%
LD 16% +1%
Scotland
Tories 32% +17%
Labour 15% -9%
SNP 40% -10%
LD 9% +2%
Wales
Tories 43% +16%
Labour 32% -5%
LD 6% n/c
I just put in the change since 2015. Find it hard to believe that the Tories could be flat in the South East and up mid teens in the North0 -
I knew that you were a decent bloke, the fact that you are a fellow Arab proves it!DavidL said:
My team cannot even reach the giddy heights of the SPL having lost in the playoff. Its painful.initforthemoney said:
what about the scottish premiership?DavidL said:Have to say so far this is a hell of a game. The EPL has a lot of catching up to do.
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I assume if Mrs Cherry does lose she has a good chance of being parachuted into Holyrood via the list. Which could be a good thing. That parliament lacks legal expertise, especially in the SNP chairs.DavidL said:
It does. Unfortunately the Tories probably have the toughest egg to crack. Joanna Cherry even has the completely untypical advantage of being competent. I will be both shocked and delighted if that comes off.FF43 said:
It looks a bit like a non-aggression pact. Parties have candidates in each other's patches but they are not trying very hard. I am in Edinburgh South. The SNP are ramping up their activity now but they have left it late. Maybe they are more confident of holding Edinburgh SW. They don't lack for activists thoughDavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
Edit. The Tories are in SW of course.0 -
Edinburgh Lib Dems I speak to are very confident. I hope they are right.rcs1000 said:
Both the Tory and Labour votes were down in Edinburgh Western last year. The former is quite remarkable when you think about the difference in Conservative Scottish opinion polls between 2016 and 2012. A substantial minority of Scottish Unionists are willing to vote tactically for the LibDems to keep the SNP out.DavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
The LDs did extremely well in Edinburgh West in the locals last month too. My guess would be LDs 21,000 votes, SNP 16,000, Con and Lab about 4,000 apiece.0 -
It wasn't in SeanTs league.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, but as a rant, you have to admit it was SeanT class, Richard.Richard_Tyndall said:
LOL. I really am going to enjoy your pain on Friday morning. If those are your views then you deserve all the angst and disappointment you are going to get.Cyan said:
Tories should indeed be frightened
Having been a grumpy git for years regarding the Facebooky phone-pickers called "young people", I will be OVERJOYED if this demographic gets off its butt and delivers the country the best PM we will have had since Clement Attlee.
Thirty years ago, Jeremy Corbyn was wrong about Northern Ireland. Other failings of the Labour manifesto - such as doing little to reverse Tory trade union laws, not promising to raise inheritance tax and income tax for the rich as high as we might wish, backing a replacement for Trident, not clearly denouncing the existence of the fascist regime called Israel, and not attacking the private schools in any other way than making them charge VAT - can be put down to the compromises Corbyn has had to make with scumbags to get where he is. If politics is the art of compromise, he has performed superbly. If he is obliged to make a deal with Nicola Sturgeon, and perhaps also with Tim Farron, to form a government, I have full confidence that he will. His competence leaves thug-liar-buffoons like Boris Johnson, mere buffoons like Michael Fallon, and empty sloganeers like Theresa May, completely in the shade. Want a good "deal" with EU27? Corbyn is our man.
This is why the Tories hate his guts. James Callagan, John Smith, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Margaret Beckett, Ed Miliband - none received anything like this amount of hatred. Not even Neil Kinnock did, at the height of the Ice Maiden's reign of terror. Harold Wilson was hated, but behind the hatred for him was the visceral and secular Tory hate for British men who dig coal out of the ground. Michael Foot was hated for his principles, but as a past president of the Oxford Union not on the same level as Jeremy Corbyn. Denis Healey promised to tax the rich "until the pips squeak", but he didn't really mean it and deep down the rich knew it.
The Tories f***ed up with Brexit, they f***ed up with calling this election, their cabinet has the putrid smell that John Major's cabinet had before the 1997 election...and I remain optimistic.
Hole the Tory campaign with a couple of big propaganda hits (white, grey, black, whatever works) between now and Tuesday - or even a single enormous one - and we've won.
Praise Marx and pass the ammunition.
Nice to know more than one PBer can do it.
This was just a crappy partisan whinge. No wonder you related to it.0 -
Subsamples are often likely to produce strange results - the Conservatives are not on 43% in Wales for example.PaulM said:HYUFD said:Regional figures
Comres vs 2015
North East
Tories 38% +13%
Labour 49% +2%
LD 8% -1%
North West
Tories 45% +14%
Labour 44% -1%
LD 7% n/c
Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48% +16%
Labour 43% +4%
LD 4% -3%
West Midlands
Tories 50% +9%
Labour 37% +5%
LD 4% -2%
East Midlands
Tories 56% +13%
Labour 30% -2%
LD 9% +4%
East
Tories 56% +7%
Labour 29% +7%
LD 8% n/c
London
Tories 39% +4%
Labour 46%+2%
LD 6% -2%
South East
Tories 51% n/c
Labour 28% +10%
LD 12% +3%
South West
Tories 51% +5%
Labour 30% +13%
LD 16% +1%
Scotland
Tories 32% +17%
Labour 15% -9%
SNP 40% -10%
LD 9% +2%
Wales
Tories 43% +16%
Labour 32% -5%
LD 6% n/c
I just put in the change since 2015. Find it hard to believe that the Tories could be flat in the South East and up mid teens in the North
But I wouldn't underestimate how much of the UKIP vote in southern England was formerly Labour or LibDem and anti-Conservative and is now moving to Labour for that reason.0 -
Yes Crabb posters in the farmers fields along the a40 a bit deceptive, you will find many labour posters in the towns, but i agree Crabb will win.Peter_the_Punter said:
Just back from a view days down that way, Valley, and what a beautiful part of the country.valleyboy said:
Been canvassing today in Preseli. Yep loads of surprising Corbyn supporters and Crabb not popular, but surely not enough to cause a shock.MikeL said:Hanretty also has Con losing Preseli Pembroke - like YouGov.
Also Clwyd West - which Con won by 18% in 2015.
Many, many Crabb posters and no sign of any opposition. Just can't see him losing.0 -
I haven't seen any sign of SLab in my pocket of Edin North, but they might be focusing their door knocking team on the more densely populated bits in Leith. Have had 1 leaflet today, delivered by RM.FF43 said:
It looks a bit like a non-aggression pact. Parties have candidates in each other's patches but they are not trying very hard. I am in Edinburgh South. The SNP are ramping up their activity now but they have left it late. Maybe they are more confident of holding Edinburgh SW. They don't lack for activists thoughDavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
Edit. The Tories are in SW of course.
They don't seem to have a great candidate this time, and Mark Lazarowicz had a decent personal vote even in defeat in 2015, so its hard to see them bettering that.
(I've had nothing from the LDs, so they must be throwing all their £ at Edin West).0 -
Christine Jardine might just be the next leader of the Liberal Democrats. (Due to being the only mp.)DavidL said:
Edinburgh Lib Dems I speak to are very confident. I hope they are right.rcs1000 said:
Both the Tory and Labour votes were down in Edinburgh Western last year. The former is quite remarkable when you think about the difference in Conservative Scottish opinion polls between 2016 and 2012. A substantial minority of Scottish Unionists are willing to vote tactically for the LibDems to keep the SNP out.DavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
The LDs did extremely well in Edinburgh West in the locals last month too. My guess would be LDs 21,000 votes, SNP 16,000, Con and Lab about 4,000 apiece.0 -
Oops. Shouldn't have described that other company as the most exciting themrcs1000 said:
I no longer work in finance*. I'm now the CFO of one of one the world's most exciting private tech companies.DavidL said:
Its that sort of cynicism that made you a Merchant Banker. True love surely conquers all.rcs1000 said:
I guess that depends on how well the next book sells.SeanT said:
This month's and last month's. This one's a keeper. Depends if she'll keep an old scrote like me, is more the question.FrancisUrquhart said:
This months one or last months?SeanT said:
In answer to your Facebook question, yes, that's the Corbynista girlfriend sitting on my Camden balcony....rcs1000 said:
Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)DavidL said:
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.Alistair said:
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)kle4 said:
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.calum said:
* And I was never a Merchant Banker. I was a research analyst, and then a fund manager. 0 -
What happens if they are left with only 2 MPs and both want to be leader, First, who will propose and who will second.rcs1000 said:
Christine Jardine might just be the next leader of the Liberal Democrats. (Due to being the only mp.)DavidL said:
Edinburgh Lib Dems I speak to are very confident. I hope they are right.rcs1000 said:
Both the Tory and Labour votes were down in Edinburgh Western last year. The former is quite remarkable when you think about the difference in Conservative Scottish opinion polls between 2016 and 2012. A substantial minority of Scottish Unionists are willing to vote tactically for the LibDems to keep the SNP out.DavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
The LDs did extremely well in Edinburgh West in the locals last month too. My guess would be LDs 21,000 votes, SNP 16,000, Con and Lab about 4,000 apiece.
What does the rule book say ? Short straw ?0 -
I'd assumed the Wales numbers were wrong and transposed. Very bad for Labour.PaulM said:HYUFD said:Regional figures
Comres vs 2015
North East
Tories 38% +13%
Labour 49% +2%
LD 8% -1%
North West
Tories 45% +14%
Labour 44% -1%
LD 7% n/c
Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48% +16%
Labour 43% +4%
LD 4% -3%
West Midlands
Tories 50% +9%
Labour 37% +5%
LD 4% -2%
East Midlands
Tories 56% +13%
Labour 30% -2%
LD 9% +4%
East
Tories 56% +7%
Labour 29% +7%
LD 8% n/c
London
Tories 39% +4%
Labour 46%+2%
LD 6% -2%
South East
Tories 51% n/c
Labour 28% +10%
LD 12% +3%
South West
Tories 51% +5%
Labour 30% +13%
LD 16% +1%
Scotland
Tories 32% +17%
Labour 15% -9%
SNP 40% -10%
LD 9% +2%
Wales
Tories 43% +16%
Labour 32% -5%
LD 6% n/c
I just put in the change since 2015. Find it hard to believe that the Tories could be flat in the South East and up mid teens in the North
Labour's position in the SW looks like a lot of the LibDems tactical voting unwinding. On the face of it, 2 Plymouth seats go Labour - but maybe not, as only 2,000 LD votes in 2015 in Plymouth Sutton and Devonport to unwind and only 1,200 in Moor View0 -
The SCON target is to have twice the number of Conservative MPs there is in North-East England. This is because there are 59 Scottish MPs and only 29 MPs in the North-East.DavidL said:
6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.Alistair said:
SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)kle4 said:
Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.calum said:
If SCON don't mange that then they continue to be the runt of the Conservative litter.0 -
I think every LibDem activist between the border and Edinburgh/Glasgow is Edinburgh WestAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I haven't seen any sign of SLab in my pocket of Edin North, but they might be focusing their door knocking team on the more densely populated bits in Leith. Have had 1 leaflet today, delivered by RM.FF43 said:
It looks a bit like a non-aggression pact. Parties have candidates in each other's patches but they are not trying very hard. I am in Edinburgh South. The SNP are ramping up their activity now but they have left it late. Maybe they are more confident of holding Edinburgh SW. They don't lack for activists thoughDavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
Edit. The Tories are in SW of course.
They don't seem to have a great candidate this time, and Mark Lazarowicz had a decent personal vote even in defeat in 2015, so its hard to see them bettering that.
(I've had nothing from the LDs, so they must be throwing all their £ at Edin West).0 -
I was there when we beat Barca home and away. And in both legs of the EUFA Cup final. And when we beat Borussia 5-0. Those were the days.Saltire said:
I knew that you were a decent bloke, the fact that you are a fellow Arab proves it!DavidL said:
My team cannot even reach the giddy heights of the SPL having lost in the playoff. Its painful.initforthemoney said:
what about the scottish premiership?DavidL said:Have to say so far this is a hell of a game. The EPL has a lot of catching up to do.
0 -
Or she might come back to PH and make some proper money. She is a very capable advocate.FF43 said:
I assume if Mrs Cherry does lose she has a good chance of being parachuted into Holyrood via the list. Which could be a good thing. That parliament lacks legal expertise, especially in the SNP chairs.DavidL said:
It does. Unfortunately the Tories probably have the toughest egg to crack. Joanna Cherry even has the completely untypical advantage of being competent. I will be both shocked and delighted if that comes off.FF43 said:
It looks a bit like a non-aggression pact. Parties have candidates in each other's patches but they are not trying very hard. I am in Edinburgh South. The SNP are ramping up their activity now but they have left it late. Maybe they are more confident of holding Edinburgh SW. They don't lack for activists thoughDavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
Edit. The Tories are in SW of course.0 -
So Sturgeon was visiting Ayrshire constituencies. I may regret not placing those long odd bets after all.0
-
-
That Survation poll is MENTAL.0
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The LD collapse of vote in North and Leith is the stuff of legends.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I haven't seen any sign of SLab in my pocket of Edin North, but they might be focusing their door knocking team on the more densely populated bits in Leith. Have had 1 leaflet today, delivered by RM.FF43 said:
It looks a bit like a non-aggression pact. Parties have candidates in each other's patches but they are not trying very hard. I am in Edinburgh South. The SNP are ramping up their activity now but they have left it late. Maybe they are more confident of holding Edinburgh SW. They don't lack for activists thoughDavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
Edit. The Tories are in SW of course.
They don't seem to have a great candidate this time, and Mark Lazarowicz had a decent personal vote even in defeat in 2015, so its hard to see them bettering that.
(I've had nothing from the LDs, so they must be throwing all their £ at Edin West).0 -
I am convinced despite the received wisdom here on PB, that many UKIPers are returning to Labour.another_richard said:
Subsamples are often likely to produce strange results - the Conservatives are not on 43% in Wales for example.PaulM said:HYUFD said:Regional figures
Comres vs 2015
North East
Tories 38% +13%
Labour 49% +2%
LD 8% -1%
North West
Tories 45% +14%
Labour 44% -1%
LD 7% n/c
Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48% +16%
Labour 43% +4%
LD 4% -3%
West Midlands
Tories 50% +9%
Labour 37% +5%
LD 4% -2%
East Midlands
Tories 56% +13%
Labour 30% -2%
LD 9% +4%
East
Tories 56% +7%
Labour 29% +7%
LD 8% n/c
London
Tories 39% +4%
Labour 46%+2%
LD 6% -2%
South East
Tories 51% n/c
Labour 28% +10%
LD 12% +3%
South West
Tories 51% +5%
Labour 30% +13%
LD 16% +1%
Scotland
Tories 32% +17%
Labour 15% -9%
SNP 40% -10%
LD 9% +2%
Wales
Tories 43% +16%
Labour 32% -5%
LD 6% n/c
I just put in the change since 2015. Find it hard to believe that the Tories could be flat in the South East and up mid teens in the North
But I wouldn't underestimate how much of the UKIP vote in southern England was formerly Labour or LibDem and anti-Conservative and is now moving to Labour for that reason.
It is very reminiscent of Black voters in 2008 leaving Hillary for Obama once they began to realise the he could actually win.0 -
That Labour lead remains elusive!SeanT said:twitter.com/faisalislam/status/871089790992732164
I wonder what's going on with the survation online series. They had a poll at the peak of the post-election bounce with the Tories on +11 when others were showing it around 18, which increased by one in their poll at the height of the manifesto debacle.0 -
Edinburgh West was a Liberal seat going back to the 70's IIRC so they are well bedded in. Also having their sitting MP under investigation for criminal fraud didn't help the SNP.rcs1000 said:
Both the Tory and Labour votes were down in Edinburgh Western last year. The former is quite remarkable when you think about the difference in Conservative Scottish opinion polls between 2016 and 2012. A substantial minority of Scottish Unionists are willing to vote tactically for the LibDems to keep the SNP out.DavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
The LDs did extremely well in Edinburgh West in the locals last month too. My guess would be LDs 21,000 votes, SNP 16,000, Con and Lab about 4,000 apiece.
0 -
Nah only 50% of them, the other 50% are in E. Dunbartonshire trying to get Jo Swinson back to the HoC.rcs1000 said:
I think every LibDem activist between the border and Edinburgh/Glasgow is Edinburgh WestAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I haven't seen any sign of SLab in my pocket of Edin North, but they might be focusing their door knocking team on the more densely populated bits in Leith. Have had 1 leaflet today, delivered by RM.FF43 said:
It looks a bit like a non-aggression pact. Parties have candidates in each other's patches but they are not trying very hard. I am in Edinburgh South. The SNP are ramping up their activity now but they have left it late. Maybe they are more confident of holding Edinburgh SW. They don't lack for activists thoughDavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
Edit. The Tories are in SW of course.
They don't seem to have a great candidate this time, and Mark Lazarowicz had a decent personal vote even in defeat in 2015, so its hard to see them bettering that.
(I've had nothing from the LDs, so they must be throwing all their £ at Edin West).0 -
HahaSeanT said:
I reckons the pollsters are all just making the numbers up for a laugh. They might as well
Analysis is futile0 -
Britain Elects @britainelects 19s19 seconds ago
More
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-6)
LAB: 39% (+5)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+2)
(via @Survation / 03 Jun)
OMG0 -
Can someone ask David Herdson what the big deal in Wakefield is of putting party posters on street lights.
The whole borough - whether Wakefield, Hemsworth or Pontefract constituencies - is covered with them from the Conservatives and Labour, with the LibDems having some in Pontefract. Though I didn't see any party posters in gardens or windows.
Is it actually legal to use lamp posts in this way ?
Who puts them all up and who takes them down ?
Does it actually get extra votes ?0 -
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-6)
LAB: 39% (+5)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+2)
(via @Survation / 03 Jun)
Oops0 -
It just goes to illustrate what a difference it would make to our democracy if we allowed people to vote from the comfort of their homes.TheScreamingEagles said:
(For avoidance of doubt, not a difference that I would welcome.)0 -
Peter_the_Punter said:
Just back from a view days down that way, Valley, and what a beautiful part of the country.valleyboy said:
Been canvassing today in Preseli. Yep loads of surprising Corbyn supporters and Crabb not popular, but surely not enough to cause a shock.MikeL said:Hanretty also has Con losing Preseli Pembroke - like YouGov.
Also Clwyd West - which Con won by 18% in 2015.
Many, many Crabb posters and no sign of any opposition. Just can't see him losing.
Just back from surfing in St Davids. Lots of labour posters and canvassing in view in the town. Loads of Tory posters but mostly in fields and fields dont vote. Very many Tory posters, including one in someones front garden, had been systematially defaced. The not too political missus was VERY unimpressed by this." Its like they are sort of bullies who are trying to shout other people down rather than out-argue them "
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Mark joined my Stable on 1st June. He is a decent bloke.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I haven't seen any sign of SLab in my pocket of Edin North, but they might be focusing their door knocking team on the more densely populated bits in Leith. Have had 1 leaflet today, delivered by RM.FF43 said:
It looks a bit like a non-aggression pact. Parties have candidates in each other's patches but they are not trying very hard. I am in Edinburgh South. The SNP are ramping up their activity now but they have left it late. Maybe they are more confident of holding Edinburgh SW. They don't lack for activists thoughDavidL said:
I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...rcs1000 said:
Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).MikeL said:
Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.
I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.
Edit. The Tories are in SW of course.
They don't seem to have a great candidate this time, and Mark Lazarowicz had a decent personal vote even in defeat in 2015, so its hard to see them bettering that.
(I've had nothing from the LDs, so they must be throwing all their £ at Edin West).0 -
The youth vote surely can't be the entire reason behind the 12 point gap in the polls. There aren't enough of them0
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Curiously, Baxter gives that Survation as Tory majority 4.0
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Can we have a poll to see which poll people like best ?Barnesian said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-6)
LAB: 39% (+5)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+2)
(via @Survation / 03 Jun)
Oops
0 -
These pollsters don't know shit anymore LOL. +6, +12, +1 leads for the Conservatives.
Weren't Survation the people telling us that 82% of 18-24-year-olds say that are certain to vote, when only 66% of us are registered (that we know of?)0 -
Lumping on a Labour minority.SeanT said:0 -
Contest poll
12pt Tory lead assuming 18-25 turnout is 2015 level at 43%.
8pt Tory lead assuming 18-25 turnout is at 63%.
5pt Tory lead assuming 18-25 is at brexit levels.
2pt Tory lead assuming labour turnout is equal to Tory turnout.
0 -
There is a poll for everybody LOL.0
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Yeah the anti immigration Little Englanders were just waiting for a multi culti loving IRA supporter to come alongsurbiton said:
I am convinced despite the received wisdom here on PB, that many UKIPers are returning to Labour.another_richard said:
Subsamples are often likely to produce strange results - the Conservatives are not on 43% in Wales for example.PaulM said:HYUFD said:Regional figures
Comres vs 2015
North East
Tories 38% +13%
Labour 49% +2%
LD 8% -1%
North West
Tories 45% +14%
Labour 44% -1%
LD 7% n/c
Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48% +16%
Labour 43% +4%
LD 4% -3%
West Midlands
Tories 50% +9%
Labour 37% +5%
LD 4% -2%
East Midlands
Tories 56% +13%
Labour 30% -2%
LD 9% +4%
East
Tories 56% +7%
Labour 29% +7%
LD 8% n/c
London
Tories 39% +4%
Labour 46%+2%
LD 6% -2%
South East
Tories 51% n/c
Labour 28% +10%
LD 12% +3%
South West
Tories 51% +5%
Labour 30% +13%
LD 16% +1%
Scotland
Tories 32% +17%
Labour 15% -9%
SNP 40% -10%
LD 9% +2%
Wales
Tories 43% +16%
Labour 32% -5%
LD 6% n/c
I just put in the change since 2015. Find it hard to believe that the Tories could be flat in the South East and up mid teens in the North
But I wouldn't underestimate how much of the UKIP vote in southern England was formerly Labour or LibDem and anti-Conservative and is now moving to Labour for that reason.
It is very reminiscent of Black voters in 2008 leaving Hillary for Obama once they began to realise the he could actually win.0 -
I am convinced despite the received wisdom here on PB, that many UKIPers are returning to Labour.
It is very reminiscent of Black voters in 2008 leaving Hillary for Obama once they began to realise the he could actually win.
Anecdote alert....We are finding kippers splitting 50/50 Tory, labour down my way.0 -
Thank god the government saw fit to arrange a poll of the entire nation so that pollsters can check their methodologies.The_Apocalypse said:There is a poll for everybody LOL.
0 -
someone's going to have unfertilised chicken produce on their faces next Thursday0
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RobD said:
Thank god the government saw fit to arrange a poll of the entire nation so that pollsters can check their methodologies.The_Apocalypse said:There is a poll for everybody LOL.
0 -
I think the Tories are flat in the south - already v high, and Brexit works against them in many parts. Big swing to Tories in the WM and North though, for opposite reasons. Couple of dozen gains here easily.MarqueeMark said:
I'd assumed the Wales numbers were wrong and transposed. Very bad for Labour.PaulM said:HYUFD said:Regional figures
Comres vs 2015
North East
Tories 38% +13%
Labour 49% +2%
LD 8% -1%
North West
Tories 45% +14%
Labour 44% -1%
LD 7% n/c
Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48% +16%
Labour 43% +4%
LD 4% -3%
West Midlands
Tories 50% +9%
Labour 37% +5%
LD 4% -2%
East Midlands
Tories 56% +13%
Labour 30% -2%
LD 9% +4%
East
Tories 56% +7%
Labour 29% +7%
LD 8% n/c
London
Tories 39% +4%
Labour 46%+2%
LD 6% -2%
South East
Tories 51% n/c
Labour 28% +10%
LD 12% +3%
South West
Tories 51% +5%
Labour 30% +13%
LD 16% +1%
Scotland
Tories 32% +17%
Labour 15% -9%
SNP 40% -10%
LD 9% +2%
Wales
Tories 43% +16%
Labour 32% -5%
LD 6% n/c
I just put in the change since 2015. Find it hard to believe that the Tories could be flat in the South East and up mid teens in the North
Hard to know what to make of Wales data. Difficult area to survey I suppose, because of big regional differences. Flip-flopping on that scale is not happeneing though.0 -
Rather envious of people a little older than myself as I was too young to go on my own. Pretty good Barca team back then with Hughes and Lineker up front and El Tel as the manager.DavidL said:
I was there when we beat Barca home and away. And in both legs of the EUFA Cup final. And when we beat Borussia 5-0. Those were the days.Saltire said:
I knew that you were a decent bloke, the fact that you are a fellow Arab proves it!DavidL said:
My team cannot even reach the giddy heights of the SPL having lost in the playoff. Its painful.initforthemoney said:
what about the scottish premiership?DavidL said:Have to say so far this is a hell of a game. The EPL has a lot of catching up to do.
0 -
Survation Con +1 in Mail on Sunday .... oh the irony (part 2) .... 0
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They also like nationalisation and an insurgent outsider...isam said:
Yeah the anti immigration Little Englanders were just waiting for a multi culti loving IRA supporter to come alongsurbiton said:
I am convinced despite the received wisdom here on PB, that many UKIPers are returning to Labour.another_richard said:
Subsamples are often likely to produce strange results - the Conservatives are not on 43% in Wales for example.PaulM said:HYUFD said:Regional figures
Comres vs 2015
North East
Tories 38% +13%
Labour 49% +2%
LD 8% -1%
North West
Tories 45% +14%
Labour 44% -1%
LD 7% n/c
Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48% +16%
Labour 43% +4%
LD 4% -3%
West Midlands
Tories 50% +9%
Labour 37% +5%
LD 4% -2%
East Midlands
Tories 56% +13%
Labour 30% -2%
LD 9% +4%
East
Tories 56% +7%
Labour 29% +7%
LD 8% n/c
London
Tories 39% +4%
Labour 46%+2%
LD 6% -2%
South East
Tories 51% n/c
Labour 28% +10%
LD 12% +3%
South West
Tories 51% +5%
Labour 30% +13%
LD 16% +1%
Scotland
Tories 32% +17%
Labour 15% -9%
SNP 40% -10%
LD 9% +2%
Wales
Tories 43% +16%
Labour 32% -5%
LD 6% n/c
I just put in the change since 2015. Find it hard to believe that the Tories could be flat in the South East and up mid teens in the North
But I wouldn't underestimate how much of the UKIP vote in southern England was formerly Labour or LibDem and anti-Conservative and is now moving to Labour for that reason.
It is very reminiscent of Black voters in 2008 leaving Hillary for Obama once they began to realise the he could actually win.0 -
All seems to hinge on whether younger voters see this opportunity to be heard again after Brexit, when so many didn't turn up for that.SeanT said:ComRes has a Tory landslide.
Survation has JC as possible PM.
??0 -
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Survation trying to challenge YouGov for the pollster that produces a poll which sends everyone into a tailspin.0
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82% of the 66%.The_Apocalypse said:These pollsters don't know shit anymore LOL. +6, +12, +1 leads for the Conservatives.
Weren't Survation the people telling us that 82% of 18-24-year-olds say that are certain to vote, when only 66% of us are registered (that we know of?)0 -
Polls all over the place and one of them is probably very close lol. Election night is going to be fascinating.0
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I've been thinking about all the talk of Corbyn having a great campaign and May having a crap one. Is this really the case?
We pretty much knew what may was like as soon as she took over as PM. Awkward interviews, overruling cabinet ministers, unclear/poorly leaked policies like grammar schools and an actual U-turn on the business rates.
Despite this, she remained fairly popular with the public, with leads from 10-25%. What's more, the real results, such as the local elections and the by-election gain confirmed that this was real.
On the other hand, Corbyn was always fairly confident giving speeches and debating, because he's been doing it for so long, and he believes in most of what he is selling. The contents of the manifesto, i.e. poorly costed giveaways, had always been one of his selling points.
So if the campaigns haven't really given us any new information, why have the polls (and possibly voting behaviour) changed so much?
In my opinion, it's the media. The Tories were on course for a crushing victory and remained in that position for about a month. This makes for extremely boring media coverage, so all but the most right-wing media have been much more critical of May (and to a lesser extent, more generous to Corbyn). The fact that impartiality rules kick in for TV coverage also affects things.
So my point is that we're seeing the same May and Corbyn that we did for months before with the big leads, but now the media is trying to make things more interesting with much more May scrutiny. For example, the amount of coverage given to 'Garden tax' vs. 'Dementia tax'.0 -
Enjoying the popcorn everyone?
I am working very hard this week. Including conference and Black Tie dinner Friday up at the Crieff Hydro. Where I intend to get blootered celebrating the "shock" Labour win0 -
Where the hell is John Curtice during this psephological omnishambles?0
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Didn't see Survation issue that caveat....surbiton said:
82% of the 66%.The_Apocalypse said:These pollsters don't know shit anymore LOL. +6, +12, +1 leads for the Conservatives.
Weren't Survation the people telling us that 82% of 18-24-year-olds say that are certain to vote, when only 66% of us are registered (that we know of?)0 -
You can't accuse the pollsters of herding ....0
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Except Tiny Tim :-(The_Apocalypse said:There is a poll for everybody LOL.
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