politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you have system like first past the post then don’t get ups

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/871063537547972608

Has somebody seen a YouGov poll?

Well a Labour lead with them seems likely at some point given trend, although that wouldn't be enough.

Paradoxically, although it would only cause panic, i think Conservatives should be quite happy if YouGov continues on its seemingly inexorable path towards Labour most votes. It might be indicative that what's going on is problems with its panel and therefore undermines its results.

Anyone remember the experimental Populus "tracker" in 2010 (or was it 2005?)

HYUFD said:

Regional figures

Comres

North East
Tories 38%
Labour 49%
LD 8%

North West
Tories 45%
Labour 44%
LD 7%

Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48%
Labour 43%
LD 4%

West Midlands
Tories 50%
Labour 37%
LD 4%

East Midlands
Tories 56%
Labour 30%
LD 9%

East
Tories 56%
Labour 29%
LD 8%

London
Tories 39%
Labour 46%
LD 6%

South East
Tories 51%
Labour 28%
LD 12%

South West
Tories 51%
Labour 30%
LD 16%

Scotland
Tories 32%
Labour 15%
SNP 40%
LD 9%

Wales
Tories 43%
Labour 32%
LD 6%
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent-Sunday-Mirror_VI-and-political-poll_2nd-June-2017_654412.pdf

Well I don't believe that Wales figure, just for starters. The whole place seems to have jumped firmly back to Labour after that fearful Wales poll at the start of the campaign. Very very high Labour in SW too, though I can believe that more - Bristol loves Corbyn, and if the LDs are doing well in target seats in the country they must be not recovering anywhere else, meaning they will remain 3rd or 4th in many SW seats, with Labour perhaps starting to replace them as the distant second place challengers.

numbertwelve said:

HYUFD said:

Regional figures

Comres

North East
Tories 38%
Labour 49%
LD 8%

North West
Tories 45%
Labour 44%
LD 7%

Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48%
Labour 43%
LD 4%

West Midlands
Tories 50%
Labour 37%
LD 4%

East Midlands
Tories 56%
Labour 30%
LD 9%

East
Tories 56%
Labour 29%
LD 8%

London
Tories 39%
Labour 46%
LD 6%

South East
Tories 51%
Labour 28%
LD 12%

South West
Tories 51%
Labour 30%
LD 16%

Scotland
Tories 32%
Labour 15%
SNP 40%
LD 9%

Wales
Tories 43%
Labour 32%
LD 6%
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent-Sunday-Mirror_VI-and-political-poll_2nd-June-2017_654412.pdf

Did I hear a klaxon?

13.5% swing from SNP to Tory since 2015 if you believe Comres

Following my usual practice I wish to record here that I have this evening placed a bet of £450 with BetFred on CON MOST SEATS at 1/9. If successful it is a return of £500, a profit of £50. If unsuccessful it is a return of £0, a loss of £450. I will let you know how things pan out.

The betslip is in my usual white envelope and will serve as a bookmark until Friday.

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

HYUFD said:

Regional figures

Comres

North East
Tories 38%
Labour 49%
LD 8%

North West
Tories 45%
Labour 44%
LD 7%

Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48%
Labour 43%
LD 4%

West Midlands
Tories 50%
Labour 37%
LD 4%

East Midlands
Tories 56%
Labour 30%
LD 9%

East
Tories 56%
Labour 29%
LD 8%

London
Tories 39%
Labour 46%
LD 6%

South East
Tories 51%
Labour 28%
LD 12%

South West
Tories 51%
Labour 30%
LD 16%

Scotland
Tories 32%
Labour 15%
SNP 40%
LD 9%

Wales
Tories 43%
Labour 32%
LD 6%
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent-Sunday-Mirror_VI-and-political-poll_2nd-June-2017_654412.pdf

Did I hear a klaxon?

13.5% swing from SNP to Tory since 2015 if you believe Comres

SOUND THE KLAXONS

Gallowgate said:

Who's General Boles? Excuse my ignorance...

Spoof twitter account originally taking the mickey out of Nick Boles.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

Regional figures

snip

That looks like Tories winning where it matters.

Am I going to have to do the morning thread on why you shouldn't read too much into sub-samples?

Commenting on what the sub samples look like meaning if true does not necessarily mean one believes them of course.

Pulpstar said:

Will the SNP get more seats or vote % ?

Seats.

Pulpstar said:

malcolmg said:

How many more U bends can May make:
The Conservatives have U-turned on a flagship pledge to build “a new generation” of social housing announced in their manifesto just weeks ago.

Theresa May personally promised her policy would deliver “a constant supply of new homes for social rent”, but her housing minister has now admitted planned homes would in fact be of a significantly less affordable type.

The embarrassing admission represents the second about-turn on a Conservative manifesto pledge, after the damaging furore around the “dementia tax”.

Tbh that is better - what this country needs is quality new homes. The better the homes, the better.

You miss the point , they will be private profit making ones , the Tories don't do social.

Pulpstar said:

Will the SNP get more seats or vote % ?

More seats would be my guess.

nichomar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

AndyJS said:

Dadge said:

The Labour surge does finally seem to have stopped, but there is a little extra hope for Labour - I notice that YouGov has the LibDems at 9% - Labour should definitely have its eye on 2-3% of those voters in the final week.

What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.

That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...

(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.

44% might be enough for May to get the most votes ever, if turnout is around 70%.

Have you noticed people talking about this election? I haven't. I'm going for 61-62%.

I mentioned this yesterday. Two trips to supposed ultra marginal Bath, very little signs of an election, even on the university campus. Certainly no sign of hoards of Moamentumers.

It was only when I headed out into the sticks was I assaulted by wall to wall Jacob Rees Mogg placards spoiling the view of the nice countryside.

You must have strayed into north somerset where he is the candidate seen by friends out canvassing in his rolls Royce last week. Apparently he goes to church in a chauffeured limo because he the wife and five children don't fit in the roller

Yes I know it isn't in Bath that Mogg is standing. I meant in the ultra marginal Bath very very little (even on the uni campus...it was two pathetic looking tables, one for Tories, one for Lib Dem, no Labour), in Mogg safe seat it was bloody wall to wall with his stuff.

Seriously, I have no fecking idea what the morning thread is going to be about.

I've written the afternoon thread.

It contains three of the subtlest musical references you will ever see.

JosiasJessop said:

Pulpstar said:

malcolmg said:

How many more U bends can May make:
The Conservatives have U-turned on a flagship pledge to build “a new generation” of social housing announced in their manifesto just weeks ago.

Theresa May personally promised her policy would deliver “a constant supply of new homes for social rent”, but her housing minister has now admitted planned homes would in fact be of a significantly less affordable type.

The embarrassing admission represents the second about-turn on a Conservative manifesto pledge, after the damaging furore around the “dementia tax”.

Tbh that is better - what this country needs is quality new homes. The better the homes, the better.

I am increasingly becoming convinced that the major housebuilders are not delivering 'better' homes.

I've just come back from a walk around Longstanton in Cambridgeshire. Immediately north of the village is the old Oakington airfield, which is now (slowly) becoming the new village of Northstowe. I had a look around the handful of completed houses and, with one exception, they look pretty poor. And being the first houses on the village, more care would have been put into them than the thousandth.

Housebuilders are taking the p*ss.

I know three couples who have purchased new builds in the last two years. All of them have had problems, some more significant than others.

numbertwelve said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

My biggest fear about Mrs May's crap performance is that she might have undone all the good work of Ruth Davidson.

I suspect we'll be seeing a lot more "will Ruth be the next Tory leader?" articles after next Thursday.

If May does poorly to middling and SCON advance well, probably, at first. As has been advanced although it would be interesting to see what she might do, but is probably a bad idea.

But she is young, with plenty of time ahead. So if she is ever asked I guess she should just say she is planning to be First Minister (no laughing at the back, it's a theoretical aspiration even though it won't happen) and that is all she is focused on, without ruling out transitioning to Westminster at some point. After all, she could be First Minister (I said no laughing, it's just a hypothetical!) for a spell, then move on to Westminster to advance the cause there.

Forgetting about polls and using the paper favourite from the current constituency betting,I get Con at 378,Lab at 189,SNP 49,LDs 9,Pl 3.Outwith NI,an overall Tory majority of 128.

rcs1000 said:

AndyJS said:

Dadge said:

The Labour surge does finally seem to have stopped, but there is a little extra hope for Labour - I notice that YouGov has the LibDems at 9% - Labour should definitely have its eye on 2-3% of those voters in the final week.

What we know for certain is that *at least* 13 million people will vote Tory (42% of 31m). Nobody truthfully knows how many will vote Labour. Nick Timothy and most of us naively believed that Labour would be lucky to get the 9.3 million it got last time - Jeremy Corbyn is owed at least a grudging toast from his colleagues if he gets them as many as 11 million - which would be more than Blair got except in the 97 landslide.

That 2-million gap would give the Tories a slightly better majority than they have now. In reality, a sunny day, the grannies troop up the road, scared that that horrid Mr Corbyn doesn't want to kill Koreans, and it could be closer to John Major's 14 million. In theory there are 12 million people who say they'll vote Labour, but...

(As a leftie) I think it's best to be prepared for the worst on Thursday night. Well, I don't mean the worst worst, but a realistic result like Baxter's current prediction of a 74 majority. Anything worse than that and the big losers will be the pollsters. Anything better than that and Labour's minimum aim of damage limitation has been achieved. If the Tory majority is less than 50 I think May will be in for a rough ride and Labour will be hopeful for the future (unless you're Nick Cohen), given that they'll have finally found a way of getting young people to vote.

44% might be enough for May to get the most votes ever, if turnout is around 70%.

Have you noticed people talking about this election? I haven't. I'm going for 61-62%.

Not really. But if it's 61-62% there probably won't be any sort of youth boost for Corbyn.

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

He's back for a week.

https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/871068258480377856
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/871068337551355905

Tory maj nailed on then.

Only Party suggesting tax is increased to protect millionaires' wealth is Labour...

Perception perception perception. As Farron put it, May might be outside your house, sizing up your house right now!

numbertwelve said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

My biggest fear about Mrs May's crap performance is that she might have undone all the good work of Ruth Davidson.

I suspect we'll be seeing a lot more "will Ruth be the next Tory leader?" articles after next Thursday.

See my post from a couple of days back about why that is a non starter.

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/AidanKerrTweets/status/871056914913914881

Iff true, that would mean that seat has had MPs from three different parties in a little over 2 years.

Hubris is always a danger but I do think that seat is done. Get the troops in Aberdeen South and Angus.

I want Moray and Perth & North Perthshire to go blue.

Not only would it be profitable, it would be hilarious.

Full disclosure, I stuck some money on David Mundell losing as an anti-hubris bet.

I think they are both very big asks. The SNP must be strong favourites for both. The 3 border seats, West Aberdeenshire and (probably) East Renfrewshire. After that Aberdeen South, Perth and North Perthshire, Edinburgh SW, Moray even Gordon are all chances but all odds against. Can they land more than one?

I think that Edin SW and Aberdeen S are both just as likely as E Renfrew and all much more likely than the rest.
Considering that the SNP are about 6-8% down in the polls compared to 2015 the Tories need to get 42+% to have a chance in Perth or in Moray whilst the winning line in the other 3 seats is likely to be something like 37 or so which is much more likely with tactical voting.
If it is clear which party is best placed to beat the Nats I expect all 3 to fall to either Lab or Con.
Re the subject of tactical voting I can totally get 20% of people of Scotland using their vote tactically but it seems really high for E&W. If it does happen the LD may, just may out preform expectations as I think they could benefit in a number of seats.

DavidL said:

I don't believe the Labour figure in Scotland. Kezia, to my astonishment, has had a good campaign when she is not explaining that Corbyn didn't really mean what he said.

It looks like there is a leakage from SNP to Labour for this election at least. I can't see any seats where Labour could easily capitalise. Maybe Edinburgh North & Leith, East Renfrewshire (they would compete with the Tories for that seat and so let the SNP win in that case probably), East Lothian we have mentioned a few times, and just possibly Paisley & Renfrewshire South (Mhairi Black's seat) and Midlothian. But they are long shots.

DavidL said:

So on to the real question of the evening. The irresistible force (Ronaldo 8 goals in 4 CL fixtures) against the immoveable object (Juve's defence).

A small tipple on Juve for me.

Real in normal time.

tlg86 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Pulpstar said:

malcolmg said:

How many more U bends can May make:
The Conservatives have U-turned on a flagship pledge to build “a new generation” of social housing announced in their manifesto just weeks ago.

Theresa May personally promised her policy would deliver “a constant supply of new homes for social rent”, but her housing minister has now admitted planned homes would in fact be of a significantly less affordable type.

The embarrassing admission represents the second about-turn on a Conservative manifesto pledge, after the damaging furore around the “dementia tax”.

Tbh that is better - what this country needs is quality new homes. The better the homes, the better.

I am increasingly becoming convinced that the major housebuilders are not delivering 'better' homes.

I've just come back from a walk around Longstanton in Cambridgeshire. Immediately north of the village is the old Oakington airfield, which is now (slowly) becoming the new village of Northstowe. I had a look around the handful of completed houses and, with one exception, they look pretty poor. And being the first houses on the village, more care would have been put into them than the thousandth.

Housebuilders are taking the p*ss.

I know three couples who have purchased new builds in the last two years. All of them have had problems, some more significant than others.

There will always be snagging required in any new house. Problems occur, and mistakes are made. However the stories I hear- and the things I see - point to much more significant issues.

As an example: a couple buy a new-build house with a flying lounge (the lounge is above the parking spaces and connected to the house next door). During the first winter, the room gets extremely cold even with heating on. They get the builders in, who claim everything is perfect and insulated as per the law. They get an independent surveyor in, who drills holes in the walls and floor only to discover there is no insulation. The surveyor also found several other significant issues. They then had to suffer a long period of disruption whilst the builder went in and did the work they should have done in the first place. Several other neighbours heard about this, and each one had insulation missing.

You don't 'forget' to put insulation in the walls, if it is required (I'm dubious about filing existing cavity walls with insulation, but it should be okay with buildings designed for it).

+ many other stories. I heard a figure for how many thousands builders set aside for after-sale work on a new-build house, and it was large (also unofficial, so i won't say it here). They'd be better off getting it right in the first place.

Can we hurry up with the other polls, so I can then throw my dinner up with worry and crack on with downing a bottle of something alcoholic in order to enable me to get to sleep?

HYUFD said:

Regional figures

Comres

North East
Tories 38%
Labour 49%
LD 8%

North West
Tories 45%
Labour 44%
LD 7%

Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48%
Labour 43%
LD 4%

West Midlands
Tories 50%
Labour 37%
LD 4%

East Midlands
Tories 56%
Labour 30%
LD 9%

East
Tories 56%
Labour 29%
LD 8%

London
Tories 39%
Labour 46%
LD 6%

South East
Tories 51%
Labour 28%
LD 12%

South West
Tories 51%
Labour 30%
LD 16%

Scotland
Tories 32%
Labour 15%
SNP 40%
LD 9%

Wales
Tories 43%
Labour 32%
LD 6%
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent-Sunday-Mirror_VI-and-political-poll_2nd-June-2017_654412.pdf

Midlands bloodbath still on

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Regional figures

Comres

North East
Tories 38%
Labour 49%
LD 8%

North West
Tories 45%
Labour 44%
LD 7%

Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48%
Labour 43%
LD 4%

West Midlands
Tories 50%
Labour 37%
LD 4%

East Midlands
Tories 56%
Labour 30%
LD 9%

East
Tories 56%
Labour 29%
LD 8%

London
Tories 39%
Labour 46%
LD 6%

South East
Tories 51%
Labour 28%
LD 12%

South West
Tories 51%
Labour 30%
LD 16%

Scotland
Tories 32%
Labour 15%
SNP 40%
LD 9%

Wales
Tories 43%
Labour 32%
LD 6%
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent-Sunday-Mirror_VI-and-political-poll_2nd-June-2017_654412.pdf

Well I don't believe that Wales figure, just for starters. The whole place seems to have jumped firmly back to Labour after that fearful Wales poll at the start of the campaign. Very very high Labour in SW too, though I can believe that more - Bristol loves Corbyn, and if the LDs are doing well in target seats in the country they must be not recovering anywhere else, meaning they will remain 3rd or 4th in many SW seats, with Labour perhaps starting to replace them as the distant second place challengers.

On the basis of those figures the Tories would make big gains in the North West, Scotland, Wales, the North East, Yorkshire and Humber and the East Midlands and smaller gains in the West Midlands and a handful of gains in London. Labour would make gains in the South West and Labour and the LDs would make gains in the South East

nunu said:

Look at the sky news front page.

Tory Leader refuses to rule out tax rise

Socialist Leader of the opposition challenges Tory Leader on hoome grabbing policy.

Crap. Crap. Crap. How she still has a lead beggars belief.

http://news.sky.com/

She still has a lead because Jeremy Corbyn said a few months ago that he didn't believe in shooting terrorists (amongst other things).

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Look at the sky news front page.

Tory Leader refuses to rule out tax rise

Socialist Leader of the opposition challenges Tory Leader on hoome grabbing policy.

Crap. Crap. Crap. How she still has a lead beggars belief.

http://news.sky.com/

She still has a lead because Jeremy Corbyn said a few months ago that he didn't believe in shooting terrorists (amongst other things).

Why would he want to shoot his friends?

@JossiasJessop - that's appalling. One friend told me that a neighbour looked behind a radiator to find that the plastering hadn't been finished and there was a big hole in the wall! Another friend has had problems with their bathrooms because the dehumidifier system had simply not been set up causing the ceiling to rot.

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Regional figures

Comres

North East
Tories 38%
Labour 49%
LD 8%

North West
Tories 45%
Labour 44%
LD 7%

Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48%
Labour 43%
LD 4%

West Midlands
Tories 50%
Labour 37%
LD 4%

East Midlands
Tories 56%
Labour 30%
LD 9%

East
Tories 56%
Labour 29%
LD 8%

London
Tories 39%
Labour 46%
LD 6%

South East
Tories 51%
Labour 28%
LD 12%

South West
Tories 51%
Labour 30%
LD 16%

Scotland
Tories 32%
Labour 15%
SNP 40%
LD 9%

Wales
Tories 43%
Labour 32%
LD 6%
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent-Sunday-Mirror_VI-and-political-poll_2nd-June-2017_654412.pdf

Well I don't believe that Wales figure, just for starters. The whole place seems to have jumped firmly back to Labour after that fearful Wales poll at the start of the campaign. Very very high Labour in SW too, though I can believe that more - Bristol loves Corbyn, and if the LDs are doing well in target seats in the country they must be not recovering anywhere else, meaning they will remain 3rd or 4th in many SW seats, with Labour perhaps starting to replace them as the distant second place challengers.

On the basis of those figures the Tories would make big gains in the North West, Scotland, Wales, the North East, Yorkshire and Humber and the East Midlands and smaller gains in the West Midlands and a handful of gains in London. Labour would make gains in the South West and Labour and the LDs would make gains in the South East

Anyone have the equiv subsamples for the weekend ComRes polls pre election 2015? I can put the swing into my model for a prediction...

alex. said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

numbertwelve said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

My biggest fear about Mrs May's crap performance is that she might have undone all the good work of Ruth Davidson.

I suspect we'll be seeing a lot more "will Ruth be the next Tory leader?" articles after next Thursday.

If May does poorly to middling and SCON advance well, probably, at first. As has been advanced although it would be interesting to see what she might do, but is probably a bad idea.

But she is young, with plenty of time ahead. So if she is ever asked I guess she should just say she is planning to be First Minister (no laughing at the back, it's a theoretical aspiration even though it won't happen) and that is all she is focused on, without ruling out transitioning to Westminster at some point. After all, she could be First Minister (I said no laughing, it's just a hypothetical!) for a spell, then move on to Westminster to advance the cause there.

At some point, possibly the next election, the SNP will lose their majority. They could try to form a coalition, carry on as a minority government, or there could be a coalition not involving the SNP. So not entirely theoretical.

Aren't they already a minority government?

You're right! I forgotten that. The SNP are a couple of seats short of a majority. It doesn't make any difference because the SNP government isn't doing anything.

I know that Scotland offers betting opportunities but come on its less than 10% of the seats up so why the obsession? Seen this on other sites as well.

Two relatively decent polls for the Tories - with one being actually quite good - and PB Tories are still bedwetting.

nunu said:

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Look at the sky news front page.

Tory Leader refuses to rule out tax rise

Socialist Leader of the opposition challenges Tory Leader on hoome grabbing policy.

Crap. Crap. Crap. How she still has a lead beggars belief.

http://news.sky.com/

She still has a lead because Jeremy Corbyn said a few months ago that he didn't believe in shooting terrorists (amongst other things).

She is very lucky. Very lucky indeed.

"Not ruling out a tax rise" isn't necessarily a disastrous position to be in given the source of the large increase in Tory votes. The core anti tax vote may not be happy to hear it, but there is no way that they are going to vote Corbyn in response. Whereas many of the ex Labour (via UKIP) wobbly Brexiteers may quite like the idea...

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Regional figures

Comres

North East
Tories 38%
Labour 49%
LD 8%

North West
Tories 45%
Labour 44%
LD 7%

Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48%
Labour 43%
LD 4%

West Midlands
Tories 50%
Labour 37%
LD 4%

East Midlands
Tories 56%
Labour 30%
LD 9%

East
Tories 56%
Labour 29%
LD 8%

London
Tories 39%
Labour 46%
LD 6%

South East
Tories 51%
Labour 28%
LD 12%

South West
Tories 51%
Labour 30%
LD 16%

Scotland
Tories 32%
Labour 15%
SNP 40%
LD 9%

Wales
Tories 43%
Labour 32%
LD 6%
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent-Sunday-Mirror_VI-and-political-poll_2nd-June-2017_654412.pdf

Well I don't believe that Wales figure, just for starters. The whole place seems to have jumped firmly back to Labour after that fearful Wales poll at the start of the campaign. Very very high Labour in SW too, though I can believe that more - Bristol loves Corbyn, and if the LDs are doing well in target seats in the country they must be not recovering anywhere else, meaning they will remain 3rd or 4th in many SW seats, with Labour perhaps starting to replace them as the distant second place challengers.

On the basis of those figures the Tories would make big gains in the North West, Scotland, Wales, the North East, Yorkshire and Humber and the East Midlands and smaller gains in the West Midlands and a handful of gains in London. Labour would make gains in the South West and Labour and the LDs would make gains in the South East

Anyone have the equiv subsamples for the weekend ComRes polls pre election 2015? I can put the swing into my model for a prediction...

This is the Comres poll from 28th-30th April 2015 but they do now weigh based on 2015 turnout
http://comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/IoS-SM-Political-Poll-3rd-May-2015.pdf

DavidL said:

Saltire said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/AidanKerrTweets/status/871056914913914881

Iff true, that would mean that seat has had MPs from three different parties in a little over 2 years.

Hubris is always a danger but I do think that seat is done. Get the troops in Aberdeen South and Angus.

I want Moray and Perth & North Perthshire to go blue.

Not only would it be profitable, it would be hilarious.

Full disclosure, I stuck some money on David Mundell losing as an anti-hubris bet.

I think they are both very big asks. The SNP must be strong favourites for both. The 3 border seats, West Aberdeenshire and (probably) East Renfrewshire. After that Aberdeen South, Perth and North Perthshire, Edinburgh SW, Moray even Gordon are all chances but all odds against. Can they land more than one?

I think that Edin SW and Aberdeen S are both just as likely as E Renfrew and all much more likely than the rest.
Considering that the SNP are about 6-8% down in the polls compared to 2015 the Tories need to get 42+% to have a chance in Perth or in Moray whilst the winning line in the other 3 seats is likely to be something like 37 or so which is much more likely with tactical voting.
If it is clear which party is best placed to beat the Nats I expect all 3 to fall to either Lab or Con.
Re the subject of tactical voting I can totally get 20% of people of Scotland using their vote tactically but it seems really high for E&W. If it does happen the LD may, just may out preform expectations as I think they could benefit in a number of seats.

Its really hard to call. The Tories won more votes in Perth + North Tayside in the locals just a couple of weeks ago. And the other Unionist parties are non players there. In Edinburgh, for example, the position is much more complicated.

True but the deficit to overcome is much bigger without much Unionist vote to squeeze.
In Edinburgh as far as I understand the Con effort is entirely in Edin SW whilst Labour and the LD are focusing in the seats next door.
I really hope to see Wishart lose his seat in person next Thursday night but not convinced it is going to happen at the moment. The complete lack of any Labour campaign will help but they only got 8% last time.

nichomar said:

I know that Scotland offers betting opportunities but come on its less than 10% of the seats up so why the obsession? Seen this on other sites as well.

Bookies tend to price virtually all constituencies as odds on for the SNP, following results in 2011-15, so there is money to be made if you look hard enough.

Also, Scottish MPs/MSPs and journos tend to be a lot more leaky/open than English ones, according to a serious journo friend of mine. Just my theory...

bigjohnowls said:

Latest Twitter rumours say Orb Lab up 3



Twitter rumours usually wrong thouh

That'd put them on 41%.

kle4 said:

numbertwelve said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

My biggest fear about Mrs May's crap performance is that she might have undone all the good work of Ruth Davidson.

I suspect we'll be seeing a lot more "will Ruth be the next Tory leader?" articles after next Thursday.

If May does poorly to middling and SCON advance well, probably, at first. As has been advanced although it would be interesting to see what she might do, but is probably a bad idea.

But she is young, with plenty of time ahead. So if she is ever asked I guess she should just say she is planning to be First Minister (no laughing at the back, it's a theoretical aspiration even though it won't happen) and that is all she is focused on, without ruling out transitioning to Westminster at some point. After all, she could be First Minister (I said no laughing, it's just a hypothetical!) for a spell, then move on to Westminster to advance the cause there.

Well, if the Conservatives do go into Opposition, there's no reason why the party leader should be an MP. It's fully accepted that Ms Sturgeon is SNP leader and she's not an MP. Just need a deputy leader to perform Commons functions.

Good evening, everyone.

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Latest Twitter rumours say Orb Lab up 3



Twitter rumours usually wrong thouh

That'd put them on 41%.

Got to be bollocks then

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

nichomar said:

I know that Scotland offers betting opportunities but come on its less than 10% of the seats up so why the obsession? Seen this on other sites as well.

Bookies tend to price virtually all constituencies as odds on for the SNP, following results in 2011-15, so there is money to be made if you look hard enough.

Also, Scottish MPs/MSPs and journos tend to be a lot more leaky/open than English ones, according to a serious journo friend of mine. Just my theory...

Also more data because you can look at equivalent Holyrood seats. And also more interesting politically than England, which is boringly two party now.

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/AidanKerrTweets/status/871056914913914881

Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.

SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)

6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.

Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)

In answer to your Facebook question, yes, that's the Corbynista girlfriend sitting on my Camden balcony....

This months one or last months?

This month's and last month's. This one's a keeper. Depends if she'll keep an old scrote like me, is more the question.

I guess that depends on how well the next book sells.

Its that sort of cynicism that made you a Merchant Banker. True love surely conquers all.

I no longer work in finance*. I'm now the CFO of one of one the world's most exciting private tech companies.

* And I was never a Merchant Banker. I was a research analyst, and then a fund manager.

AndyJS said:

Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.

http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.

But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.

alex. said:

The_Apocalypse said:

bigjohnowls said:

Latest Twitter rumours say Orb Lab up 3



Twitter rumours usually wrong thouh

Sounds like it's coming from this account: https://twitter.com/maddtabb/with_replies

Though he keeps on arguing that the Telegraph have tweeted it - which I haven't seen.

Well that claims Labour lead by 3. And also claims to know YouGov. So probably b*ll*x

Looking through twitter, it's the only thing I could find relating to Labour and ORB and a 3% increase.

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/AidanKerrTweets/status/871056914913914881

Hubris, should never be so open even if that confident.

SCon expectation management has been non existent to the extent that if they get 5 gains they will look like failures. They are fucking this up (I say this as someone who has bet on the basis that 19 SCon gains is a real possibility)

6 would be a good result, especially if it is more than Labour and the Lib Dems put together. Any more and it really is party time. I have champagne chilling. At least a glass for every seat the SNP are below 50.

Best make sure you have two bottles of champagne in the fridge. (Or seven, if you plan on having SeanT join you.)

In answer to your Facebook question, yes, that's the Corbynista girlfriend sitting on my Camden balcony....

This months one or last months?

This month's and last month's. This one's a keeper. Depends if she'll keep an old scrote like me, is more the question.

I guess that depends on how well the next book sells.

Its that sort of cynicism that made you a Merchant Banker. True love surely conquers all.

I no longer work in finance*. I'm now the CFO of one of one the world's most exciting private tech companies.

* And I was never a Merchant Banker. I was a research analyst, and then a fund manager.

Yeah but if you are going to accuse someone of being cynical Merchant Banker is surely the description and it is close enough.

What's the tech?

Regarding the ORB Poll.

https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/871076972553785344

MikeL said:

AndyJS said:

Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.

http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.

But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.

Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).

I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.

Have to say so far this is a hell of a game. The EPL has a lot of catching up to do.

ICM with interesting numbers apparently. Perhaps also a narrowing?

rcs1000 said:

MikeL said:

AndyJS said:

Chris Hanretty's lastest forecast has upped the number of Tory seats from 359 to 368 compared to yesterday.

http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Only has LD favourite to win 2 seats.

But forecasts 7 LD seats as presumably several just below 50%.

Yes, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Ceredgion (where they manage to win on 26% of the vote!).

I think his forecasts miss the willingness of Scots to tactically vote (see Holyrood 2016). For example I don't believe the LibDems are in any danger of losing Orkney & Shetland, given that last year their vote share was up more than 25 percentage points since 2012, and they outpolled the SNP three-to-one.

I hear there are very few Tory activists in either Edinburgh West or South, very few Lib Dems anywhere but West and Labour almost entirely in South and North. Of course their voters may have other views...

Edit. The Tories are in SW of course.

jonny83 said:

ICM with interesting numbers apparently. Perhaps also a narrowing?

Would that be interesting?