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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa’s Tories drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons

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  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    MOE.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    YouGov.....
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    IanB2 said:

    Canada is also a rare place with a property bubble worse than ours
    Yeah, I never said that we were logically consistent! It also has to be said that among my generation there will also be big winners from the housing boom down the line, personally I'm planning on renting abroad, before using the inheritance money to buy a very nice place somewhere for myself.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,564

    YouGov.....
    Granted, but they aren't proven wrong until, well, its proven.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550
    kle4 said:

    Granted, but they aren't proven wrong until, well, its proven.
    But they certainly seem to be so far ahead of the curve they are either brilliant - or pathetic!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)


    Ok, not taking YG seriously anymore.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,564
    kle4 said:

    Closest yet, LDs still stucka round 7-8.

    It is impressive that rain or shine, good day, great day or bad day, Labour don't dip at all. Getting close to 2005 numbers? I know the LDs are well down, but really?
    Meant 2001.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Very interesting you're a centrist and a bit of a eurosceptic, Apocalypse. I must confess I thought you were a very solid left-winger and very pro-EU.

    I do hope we can do something to persuade you to lend us your vote this once over the next week or so.
    I wouldn't call myself a centrist!
    I'm pro-EU overall but I don't think the EU is perfect by any means.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,564

    But they certainly seem to be so far ahead of the curve they are either brilliant - or pathetic!
    Indeed! Not even Labour thought they would be where YouGov say, they truly are geniuses. If they are right.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    ydoethur said:

    It wouldn't be minimal cost. It is a graduate tax, of course you are right, but it's actually going to pay off most of the principal over the 30 years of the average graduate earnings. Some may not pay much, but others will pay far more. The real killer, and to this extent I do agree, is the interest on it, which will prove problematic for people repaying it. However, that is a different problem that probably can be adjusted.

    Also the cost of tuition on most university courses is more than £9,000 (although that also says a lot about the corruption and inefficiency of HE). So even now they are running at a loss. Corbyn has proposed to increase that loss substantially. Guess where cuts fall under such circumstances? Hint: not where they should. The first subjects to die would be Stem, which is very expensive to run.

    The policy May espoused is still there. There has been the suggestion of possible watering down further on, but no change to the manifesto. So if you approve of it, you have the option of voting for it.

    Anyway, hope you have found that instructive. Good night.
    Freezing the threshold means far, far more graduates will now be forced to pay back their entire loan + interest (@rpi+3%). Even lower earners will pay back significantly more of their loan.

    In a medium/high interest environment (and with wages rising in response), the threshold freeze will have a really significant impact on the living standards of these graduates.

    Osborne knew this when he did it last year - a massive, deferred tax rise on new graduates.

    When the Plan 2 book is sold off it'll raise way more money for the treasury, than it would have done with the previous threshold in place.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    YouGov: keeping the nation's blood pressure nice and low since 1862.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308


    Ok, not taking YG seriously anymore.

    Maybe they are right. The media narrative certainly suggests Labour has momentum.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    It wasn't supposed to be like this.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017

    YouGov.....
    The price of a Tory majority has moved another tick away from the Tories, to 1.22-1.23.

    Goodnight everyone.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550
    Pong said:

    It wasn't supposed to be like this.
    And it isn't, with other pollsters...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,106

    I wouldn't call myself a centrist!
    I'm pro-EU overall but I don't think the EU is perfect by any means.
    The LibDems are very strong supporters of EU reform, as is the ALDE group generally across Europe. That is what Tim was trying to communicate with his rather hamfisted self-reference as a Eurosceptic early in the campaign, which he should have been bright enough to foresee would be used against him. Strongly believing that our future should lie in closer relationships and pooled decision-making with our neighbours is not incompatible with dissatisfaction about the unaccountable way the EU currently operates.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    I thought peak labour was yesterday. How wrong I was.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    39% :smiley:
    YouGov's view is go big or go home. Fuck it, I'm rooting for them. They're right and everyone else is wrong.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    I thought peak labour was yesterday. How wrong I was.
    Peak Labour was before Manchester. After Manchester. Before Woman's Hour. After Woman's Hour. Before the debate. After the debate.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,080

    Very interesting you're a centrist and a bit of a eurosceptic, Apocalypse. I must confess I thought you were a very solid left-winger and very pro-EU.

    I do hope we can do something to persuade you to lend us your vote this once over the next week or so.
    God no! Vote Conservative and you won't be able to sleep at night. Vote anything BUT Conservative please!
This discussion has been closed.