politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa’s Tories drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons
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I will be voting for Hilary Benn in Leeds Central, whatever the polls say.SeanT said:
Indulge me. Imagine we get a couple of polls next Monday showing Labour with a LEAD.SandyRentool said:
The best we can hope for is to deprive May of an overall majority. The idea of Labour most seats is nonsensical.SeanT said:
Oh, I agr the knowledge Corbyn is nowhere near power.Jonathan said:
Labou nothing. Instead for some bizarre reason they raise toxic issues like Fox Hunting.SeanT said:
I wonder how many of the PB lefties would vote Labour if they thought Corbyn's Labour could actually win.bobajobPB said:
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.SeanT said:
My ex tter any Brussels sprouts.bobajobPB said:
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.SeanT said:
Toe-curling, and rather sad.Alistair said:
For you viewing delight @TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles said:
Nope.Alistair said:
Did you see the "thinking about Brexit" clip?TheScreamingEagles said:
Calm down.SeanT said:
FFS. Ever closer. We're looking at a Hung Parliament, or a very modest Tory maj.dyedwoolie said:Survey monkey for the Sun 44 38 6 closing in from 8 lead to 6
AGAINST JEREMY BLOODY CORBYN
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/869908350019829760
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
Would you? Hand on heart, if you thought this election was on a knife-edge, would you risk a Corbyn government, with McDonnell and Abbott at his side?
That has to be the Tories' last, best hope. In the end, Corbyn and Co are too scary and mad, no matter how affable Jezbollah seems. And I reckon it will be enough. But......
But if they REALLY thought Corbyn was about to win, with all that means, would they vote for him? Would you?
What would you do?0 -
2 former CEO s in farrons constituency depending on pips? Is that what he said?0
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Corbyn getting sidelined here...0
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This crowd is going to love attacks on the Tories, that much is clear. Not sure how the optics of that affect anything, but there will be a lot more applause reactions against Rudd than for.0
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Good to see Amber wiping the floor with the little parties: GRN LAB etc0
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Too many people in this format. Rudd doing a decent job so far Imo.0
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Indeed he has. I feel sorry for him...RobD said:
He's joined the dark sidemurali_s said:
You a PB Tory now?kle4 said:
My 'good one' was ironic - I thought it sounded desperate and ridiculous. But then as a soon to be member of the PB Tories at least on June 8th, I would say that.The_Taxman said:
Good idea but it sounded crass IMO.kle4 said:Hahaha - Theresa May might be outside my window! Good one Tim; someone's going for broke.
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Balanced to represent the country, by highly skilled pollsters ;-)Schards said:Usual balanced BBC audience, circa 90% left leaning I would guess
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Thread Header: "Theresa’s Tories drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons seats spread markets"
Not quite! .... I bought the Tories at 369 seats this morning to close my spread bet.
There may yet be a good case for buying Tories' Seats, should last night's YouGov prove to be an outlier which a number on here are convinced it was. Certainly, on a risk : reward basis I could see very little basis for not cashing in my Tory Sell chips this morning. IMHO they are as likely to finish up winning 390 seats as slipping further to 350, more so in fact.0 -
Minor parties barely getting a word in. Is Nuttall there? Is Corbyn?
Amber Rudd basically getting twice as much airtime as everyone else.0 -
Wet 'T' shirt contests are even better.kle4 said:
Bare knuckle boxing contests are best.RobD said:
Head to heads are far better (and we don't even have those).bigjohnowls said:Crap Format.
Nobody going to gain much here.
Tim Farron good opening0 -
But Corbyn's at the front fighting in the trenches whilst May's a Chateau general.jonny83 said:Nice blow landed on Corbyn by Rudd.
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Rudd doing well.0
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It was the story of Darth Crosby the Wise that turned him...murali_s said:
Indeed he has. I feel sorry for him...RobD said:
He's joined the dark sidemurali_s said:
You a PB Tory now?kle4 said:
My 'good one' was ironic - I thought it sounded desperate and ridiculous. But then as a soon to be member of the PB Tories at least on June 8th, I would say that.The_Taxman said:
Good idea but it sounded crass IMO.kle4 said:Hahaha - Theresa May might be outside my window! Good one Tim; someone's going for broke.
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@theobertram: So far Amber Rudd is better than Theresa May at being Theresa May.0
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I was thinking of what a win in election terms literally meant - that is what everyone is panicking over, is it not?kle4 said:
A win for him is about being able to stay in control of his party. If that somehow meant being PM I'm sure he's be thrilled, but short of that, enough to hold off a rebellion would do. I think he's achieved that at the least - the moderates won't challenge a man who does better than Ed M (which is likely) when they thought he's crash and burn.The_Apocalypse said:
win = largest party at the very least and is able to govern.JosiasJessop said:
What is a 'win' for Corbyn? I doubt he personally wants to get the keys to No. 10; a win for him would be to do well enough to prove to his doubters within Labour that his way is the way forward.The_Apocalypse said:@alex. But where are people getting the idea that Corbyn could win to even have that thought? Polls aren't showing that. Anecdotal canvassing reports on here aren't either.
I reckon he'll be happy if he gets a larger percentage vote share than Miliband got. With that, he'll be able to continue changing his party ready for someone else to take over.
Edit: if he was to get to No. 10 (and he won't), I predict he'll soon hand over to someone else.
Corbyn's aim, of course, is as you say controlling Labour. If they continue down that route, well I'm going to have trouble choosing who I vote for at future GEs.
@IanB2 The Unions fund, and thus control Labour. They are the key.0 -
On the EU, immigration, the family, and social conservatism, Osborne would have offered nothing, and would have been driven by the pet fads of metropolitan London.Philip_Thompson said:
Why is that not enough?Casino_Royale said:
But, Osborne offered Tories nothing more than Blairism with lower taxes.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is well known Osborne advised against holding the EURef.The_Taxman said:
Well that just shows the terrible judgement Cameron had if he had 37% for him and 63% against him. Surely Osborne, the arch strategist he is reputed to be would have advised him it was a silly thing to pledge that vote.TheScreamingEagles said:
I discussed this with one of his staff.MarqueeMark said:
I still get confused on this. If Cameron had so much honour, why did he say he wouldn't resign if he lost? I genuinely wonder how many would have weighed up his departure before voting Leave if he had said "if I lose the Referendum, I will immediately resign...."TheScreamingEagles said:
It wasn't pressure, it was honour.The_Taxman said:
Yeah, Cameron was so good under pressure he quit within hours of the vote last June.......rottenborough said:
What's the betting she has spent years looking at Cameron and thinking 'I could do that job'.Alistair said:
For you viewing delight @TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles said:
Nope.Alistair said:
Did you see the "thinking about Brexit" clip?TheScreamingEagles said:
Calm down.SeanT said:
FFS. Ever closer. We're looking at a Hung Parliament, or a very modest Tory maj.dyedwoolie said:Survey monkey for the Sun 44 38 6 closing in from 8 lead to 6
AGAINST JEREMY BLOODY CORBYN
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/869908350019829760
Now, she is realising its takes something very special to survive the pressure.
You lose a nation changing referendum, you have to go, your credibility is shot.
As per the Indyref, if he had said 'I'll quit if I lose the referendum' some non Tory voters would have voted Leave just to get rid of the Tory PM.
In 2015 the Tories polled 37% or so, Non Tories polled 63%.
Just what exactly was "Conservative" about him, other than that?
He would have been purely politically tactical on everything else.0 -
May is bright enough to have picked Rudd because she doesn't see her as a potential rival. She is getting a free roadtest nevertheless.0
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Indeed. I found it pretty funny, half my Twitter feed agrees and half disagrees. But being marmite at least means people are forming an opinion on him (and some positive).kle4 said:0 -
LOL Corbyn losing it!0
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Corbyn's style of "thinking before answering" is useless in this format. Rudd is doing well because she isn't waiting to be asked before speaking.0
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I was either voting Tory or LD anyway. I'd have stayed LD, that way I could avoid any blame for any crapness that follows, but it is what it is. I will pay no ongoing dues to the PB Tory brigade.murali_s said:
Indeed he has. I feel sorry for him...RobD said:
He's joined the dark sidemurali_s said:
You a PB Tory now?kle4 said:
My 'good one' was ironic - I thought it sounded desperate and ridiculous. But then as a soon to be member of the PB Tories at least on June 8th, I would say that.The_Taxman said:
Good idea but it sounded crass IMO.kle4 said:Hahaha - Theresa May might be outside my window! Good one Tim; someone's going for broke.
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Audience just so left it is embarrassing - BBC open to complaint0
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Yes if there's a big lie from Labour it is that "the rich" will pay for all their spending plans.The_Apocalypse said:You really believe self-proclaimed Marxist John McDonnell will only target 'the rich and the powerful'? That Garden tax seriously indicates otherwise. My family and I would like to continue to be able to live in our home, thank you very much. We certainly not 'rich and powerful.'
No way will Labour be able to raise enough money with their plans, and that assumes that "the rich" and big business don't change behaviour, and then there's the impact on the economy of a far-left government messing up the finances, going around nationalising things, and re-arming the trade unions to consider. "The rich" are the only people who will be able to escape Labour's clutches, it will be everybody else who ends up paying.
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Nice balanced audience...0
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The kids who are filling in the polls are all there0
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If Amber Rudd is even 25% as good as what I'm reading she's been tonight, she is most likely going to be who the Tories will replace May with.
The Tories will have had a third female leader.
And Labour none....0 -
Na, the lefties are just noisy buggers.Big_G_NorthWales said:Audience just so left it is embarrassing - BBC open to complaint
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Tezza won't do another election. This. Is. It.RobD said:
She may have already decided just to only stand for one term, so she might be thinking about who she wants as her successor.IanB2 said:May is bright enough to have picked Rudd because she doesn't see her as a potential rival. She is getting a free roadtesr nevertheless.
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Corbyn confusing debt and deficit.0
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Do we know how many people are watching?0
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And Amber Rudd far from imploding. Risky situation for Corbyn, the debate was never likely to be a game changer but Labour need it not to level the ship for the Tories.Gallowgate said:Corbyn getting sidelined here...
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Utter rubbish by Corbyn where's Diane?
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It will be the squeezed middle again that always get hit hardest.glw said:
Yes if there's a big lie from Labour it is that "the rich" will pay for all their spending plans.The_Apocalypse said:You really believe self-proclaimed Marxist John McDonnell will only target 'the rich and the powerful'? That Garden tax seriously indicates otherwise. My family and I would like to continue to be able to live in our home, thank you very much. We certainly not 'rich and powerful.'
No way will Labour be able to raise enough money with their plans, and that assumes that "the rich" and big business don't change behaviour, and then there's the impact on the economy of a far-left government messing up the finances, going around nationalising things, and re-arming the trade unions to consider. "The rich" are the only people who will be able to escape Labour's clutches, it will be everybody else who ends up paying.0 -
It will probably work to May's advantage; why would you turn up to treated like that?Big_G_NorthWales said:Audience just so left it is embarrassing - BBC open to complaint
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Wasn't this supposed to be a massive disaster for the Conservatives? According to PB....Ave_it said:LOL Corbyn losing it!
It's Cambridge. Of course it's going to be filled with lefties.0 -
Yeah, so she might be positioning her chosen successor. That, or hoping a rival falls.GIN1138 said:
Tezza won't do another election. This. Is. It.RobD said:
She may have already decided just to only stand for one term, so she might be thinking about who she wants as her successor.IanB2 said:May is bright enough to have picked Rudd because she doesn't see her as a potential rival. She is getting a free roadtesr nevertheless.
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Amber Rudd actually arguing her party is looking after the disabled? UN investigation anyone.0
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What happens if we have a Ruddgasm after tonight?
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Sometimes you become a better player when you're not in the teamTudorRose said:
It will probably work to May's advantage; why would you turn up to treated like that?Big_G_NorthWales said:Audience just so left it is embarrassing - BBC open to complaint
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Rudd treating Corbyn like a child. Haha0
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Why didn't Rudd run for leader ?0
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A benefit? Hard to say. Can look prime ministerial (oops), but the minor parties and Labour can leap in with angry, catchy attack lines, to rapturous applause.alex. said:Minor parties barely getting a word in. Is Nuttall there? Is Corbyn?
Amber Rudd basically getting twice as much airtime as everyone else.
Corbyn's loving this (as is the crowd).
I'll say this - Corbyn has had brain farts at times, but he's got his main lines down pat.0 -
She may well be a capable leader of the opposition at this rate.The_Apocalypse said:If Amber Rudd is even 25% as good as what I'm reading she's been tonight, she is most likely going to be who the Tories will replace May with.
The Tories will have had a third female leader.
And Labour none....0 -
Amber doing a sterling job here.0
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Rudd holding her own here.0
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Tim & Rudd double teaming Corbyn !0
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Wow, that was only question one?0
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Was that bizarre, overly-long metaphor planned out by Rudd in advance?0
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You turnip Scott, tax must be done UK wide whilst we are still prisoners.Scott_P said:@iainjwatson: & Angus Robertson calls for a top UK tax rate of 50p -snp froze higher threshold but didn't use new powers to increase 45p rate on Scotland
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That's a bit dramaticfoxinsoxuk said:
She may well be a capable leader of the opposition at this rate.The_Apocalypse said:If Amber Rudd is even 25% as good as what I'm reading she's been tonight, she is most likely going to be who the Tories will replace May with.
The Tories will have had a third female leader.
And Labour none....0 -
Paul Nuttall doing a good job on immigration and corporation tax0
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Tim's making up anecdotes now0
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Lol! Farron blaming Brexit on the racist backlash after Manchester. What a C***0
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Corbyn is winning hands down. Beautiful to see. Corbyn: Labour are the future; Fallon: look at the Tories' crap record. Rudd? "Magic money tree" indeed. That plays well to the Tory party membership, doubtless.0
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Of course, and I've no idea what she meant by "yellow money" and "red money" in Monopoly.Stereotomy said:Was that bizarre, overly-long metaphor planned out by Rudd in advance?
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Nuttal is probably right that people do want immigration reduced. But the interjector (I think Caroline) technically right that was not on the ballot paper.0
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Malcolm - tax needs to be higher in Scotland only as they get bigger subsidies from Londonmalcolmg said:
You turnip Scott, tax must be done UK wide whilst we are still prisoners.Scott_P said:@iainjwatson: & Angus Robertson calls for a top UK tax rate of 50p -snp froze higher threshold but didn't use new powers to increase 45p rate on Scotland
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Opposite of PBRobD said:
Na, the lefties are just noisy buggers.Big_G_NorthWales said:Audience just so left it is embarrassing - BBC open to complaint
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May behind the sofa and sends second or third string in. She is useless and unable to defend the nasty policies.0
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Good call by Amber re immigration - no little England here0
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They are both appealing to different audiences - appealing to Tory supporters and UKIp supporters, and those who think Corbyn is not suited, gets the Tories a win. Attacking the Tories and drowning out anyone else trying to attack the Tories, gets Corbyn safe in the leadership and saves dozens of MPs.Cyan said:Corbyn is winning hands down. Beautiful to see. Corbyn: Labour are the future; Fallon: look at the Tories' crap record. Rudd? "Magic money tree" indeed. That plays well to the Tory party membership, doubtless.
How do you think MI5 will work to reduce Corbyn's success here?0 -
Not sure this is going to pay off for Corbyn tonight0
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When I suggested, about 18 months ago, that Amber Rudd might be the next Conservative leader, my suggestion was treated with derision by the usual suspects, and the bookies didn't even have her listed (despite the fact that she was already a Cabinet minister). In the event, the change of leadership came too early for her, but next time is quite possible. It's interesting that Theresa May has given her such a prominent place in her government and this campaign.0
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I fail to see the problem with that. I'm a Conservative because I believe in lower taxes, because I want to work to provide for my own family - not because I want the state to run my family.Casino_Royale said:
On the EU, immigration, the family, and social conservatism, Osborne would have offered nothing, and would have been driven by the pet fads of metropolitan London.Philip_Thompson said:
Why is that not enough?Casino_Royale said:But, Osborne offered Tories nothing more than Blairism with lower taxes.
Just what exactly was "Conservative" about him, other than that?
He would have been purely politically tactical on everything else.0 -
No, that is a true story, from Manchester.isam said:Tim's making up anecdotes now
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9af41e4a-4313-11e7-87be-5b23ad6fd8ec
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CORBYN HAHAHAHAHAHA!0
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Let me guess, yougov was the polling co responsible for balance in this audience.0
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He's referring to this story:isam said:Tim's making up anecdotes now
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/hero-surgeon-who-spent-48-13105168
Agree it's a slightly tenuous to link it to Brexit, I like to think he was linking it to UKIP's approach more generally.0 -
Never seen much of Rudd before, so far she seems capable.0
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Corbyn losing it over immigration0
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The compère is struggling a little and the format gives her a lot of influence over how this goes0
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That's a very smart betting observation, which I reckon is at least 75% likely to prove accurate.SandyRentool said:It has been really entertaining this afternoon watching our resident Tories rubbishing the polls they don't like.
One thing is looking clear - the next PM ill be a Tory; May wont lead them into 2022 (or whenever).0 -
Should I watch it - or carrying on pulling up weeds?0
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I think I fancy the presenter.
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I must admit, I was very pleased to pick her out as the next Home Secretary. (Which was just as well as the other positions were less good.)Richard_Nabavi said:When I suggested, about 18 months ago, that Amber Rudd might be the next Conservative leader, my suggestion was treated with derision by the usual suspects, and the bookies didn't even have her listed (despite the fact that she was already a Cabinet minister). In the event, the change of leadership came too early for her, but next time is quite possible. It's interesting that Theresa May has given her such a prominent place in her government and this campaign.
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Leanne whatever her name is, is dreadful
LAB hold Rhondda0 -
The PM is absolutely right to give this a miss. You can't have a current PM having to get shouty and arguing with these second-raters.
Amber Rudd is EXCELLENT.0 -
Not true. Scott is absolutely right. As of last month Scotland has the power to increase the top rate of tax from 45p to 50p on all income excepts savings and dividends.malcolmg said:
You turnip Scott, tax must be done UK wide whilst we are still prisoners.Scott_P said:@iainjwatson: & Angus Robertson calls for a top UK tax rate of 50p -snp froze higher threshold but didn't use new powers to increase 45p rate on Scotland
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This audience is a little strange - they aren't lauding every line he says, but every other one gets huge applause.
Oh, hi Leanne, you're still here? I think Mishal Husain asked her several questions in order to give her a chance to be seen.0 -
Caused by Brexit? Or by the terrorist atrocity? Doesn't make it right, but Tim Farron was talking complete bollocks.foxinsoxuk said:
No, that is a true story, from Manchester.isam said:Tim's making up anecdotes now
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9af41e4a-4313-11e7-87be-5b23ad6fd8ec0 -
Nuttall correct isn't he? The polls always say the public want less immigration0
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Get real!!! He's already won - he's actually there. I know TMay is planning something special on Brexit but couldn't she spare 60 minutes?Big_G_NorthWales said:Not sure this is going to pay off for Corbyn tonight
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Oh 'positioning' I read it as 'poisoning' at first.RobD said:
Yeah, so she might be positioning her chosen successor. That, or hoping a rival falls.GIN1138 said:
Tezza won't do another election. This. Is. It.RobD said:
She may have already decided just to only stand for one term, so she might be thinking about who she wants as her successor.IanB2 said:May is bright enough to have picked Rudd because she doesn't see her as a potential rival. She is getting a free roadtesr nevertheless.
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