Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa’s Tories drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons

1246712

Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,650
    SeanT said:

    Indulge me. Imagine we get a couple of polls next Monday showing Labour with a LEAD.

    What would you do?
    I will be voting for Hilary Benn in Leeds Central, whatever the polls say.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    2 former CEO s in farrons constituency depending on pips? Is that what he said?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,092
    Corbyn getting sidelined here...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    This crowd is going to love attacks on the Tories, that much is clear. Not sure how the optics of that affect anything, but there will be a lot more applause reactions against Rudd than for.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Good to see Amber wiping the floor with the little parties: GRN LAB etc
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332
    Jonathan said:

    Format sucks.

    Only UK parties should be there.

    Only realistic PMs should be there.

    So May not being there is a step in the right direction. :p
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Too many people in this format. Rudd doing a decent job so far Imo.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    Pulpstar said:

    That joke was plain cringeworthy though.
    If he can get people to remember him, job done I guess.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,080
    RobD said:

    He's joined the dark side :naughty:
    Indeed he has. I feel sorry for him...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Schards said:

    Usual balanced BBC audience, circa 90% left leaning I would guess

    Balanced to represent the country, by highly skilled pollsters ;-)
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2017
    Thread Header: "Theresa’s Tories drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons seats spread markets"

    Not quite! .... I bought the Tories at 369 seats this morning to close my spread bet.

    There may yet be a good case for buying Tories' Seats, should last night's YouGov prove to be an outlier which a number on here are convinced it was. Certainly, on a risk : reward basis I could see very little basis for not cashing in my Tory Sell chips this morning. IMHO they are as likely to finish up winning 390 seats as slipping further to 350, more so in fact.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Minor parties barely getting a word in. Is Nuttall there? Is Corbyn?

    Amber Rudd basically getting twice as much airtime as everyone else.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    kle4 said:

    Bare knuckle boxing contests are best.
    Wet 'T' shirt contests are even better.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    jonny83 said:

    Nice blow landed on Corbyn by Rudd.

    But Corbyn's at the front fighting in the trenches whilst May's a Chateau general.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,195
    Rudd doing well.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    Jonathan said:

    Format sucks.

    Only UK parties should be there.

    All the Welsh and Scots go on about it their part of the country
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332
    murali_s said:

    Indeed he has. I feel sorry for him...
    It was the story of Darth Crosby the Wise that turned him... :p
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @theobertram: So far Amber Rudd is better than Theresa May at being Theresa May.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    A win for him is about being able to stay in control of his party. If that somehow meant being PM I'm sure he's be thrilled, but short of that, enough to hold off a rebellion would do. I think he's achieved that at the least - the moderates won't challenge a man who does better than Ed M (which is likely) when they thought he's crash and burn.
    I was thinking of what a win in election terms literally meant - that is what everyone is panicking over, is it not?

    Corbyn's aim, of course, is as you say controlling Labour. If they continue down that route, well I'm going to have trouble choosing who I vote for at future GEs.

    @IanB2 The Unions fund, and thus control Labour. They are the key.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,129

    Why is that not enough?
    On the EU, immigration, the family, and social conservatism, Osborne would have offered nothing, and would have been driven by the pet fads of metropolitan London.

    He would have been purely politically tactical on everything else.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,073
    edited May 2017
    May is bright enough to have picked Rudd because she doesn't see her as a potential rival. She is getting a free roadtest nevertheless.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    kle4 said:

    If he can get people to remember him, job done I guess.
    Indeed. I found it pretty funny, half my Twitter feed agrees and half disagrees. But being marmite at least means people are forming an opinion on him (and some positive).
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LOL Corbyn losing it!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Corbyn's style of "thinking before answering" is useless in this format. Rudd is doing well because she isn't waiting to be asked before speaking.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    murali_s said:

    Indeed he has. I feel sorry for him...
    I was either voting Tory or LD anyway. I'd have stayed LD, that way I could avoid any blame for any crapness that follows, but it is what it is. I will pay no ongoing dues to the PB Tory brigade.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332
    IanB2 said:

    May is bright enough to have picked Rudd because she doesn't see her as a potential rival. She is getting a free roadtesr nevertheless.

    She may have already decided just to only stand for one term, so she might be thinking about who she wants as her successor.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,995
    Audience just so left it is embarrassing - BBC open to complaint
  • glwglw Posts: 10,347

    You really believe self-proclaimed Marxist John McDonnell will only target 'the rich and the powerful'? That Garden tax seriously indicates otherwise. My family and I would like to continue to be able to live in our home, thank you very much. We certainly not 'rich and powerful.'

    Yes if there's a big lie from Labour it is that "the rich" will pay for all their spending plans.

    No way will Labour be able to raise enough money with their plans, and that assumes that "the rich" and big business don't change behaviour, and then there's the impact on the economy of a far-left government messing up the finances, going around nationalising things, and re-arming the trade unions to consider. "The rich" are the only people who will be able to escape Labour's clutches, it will be everybody else who ends up paying.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Nice balanced audience...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    edited May 2017
    The kids who are filling in the polls are all there
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    If Amber Rudd is even 25% as good as what I'm reading she's been tonight, she is most likely going to be who the Tories will replace May with.

    The Tories will have had a third female leader.

    And Labour none....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332

    Audience just so left it is embarrassing - BBC open to complaint

    Na, the lefties are just noisy buggers. :p
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,828
    RobD said:

    She may have already decided just to only stand for one term, so she might be thinking about who she wants as her successor.
    Tezza won't do another election. This. Is. It.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513
    Corbyn confusing debt and deficit.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Do we know how many people are watching?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Corbyn getting sidelined here...

    And Amber Rudd far from imploding. Risky situation for Corbyn, the debate was never likely to be a game changer but Labour need it not to level the ship for the Tories.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Utter rubbish by Corbyn where's Diane? :lol:
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    glw said:

    Yes if there's a big lie from Labour it is that "the rich" will pay for all their spending plans.

    No way will Labour be able to raise enough money with their plans, and that assumes that "the rich" and big business don't change behaviour, and then there's the impact on the economy of a far-left government messing up the finances, going around nationalising things, and re-arming the trade unions to consider. "The rich" are the only people who will be able to escape Labour's clutches, it will be everybody else who ends up paying.
    It will be the squeezed middle again that always get hit hardest.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Audience just so left it is embarrassing - BBC open to complaint

    It will probably work to May's advantage; why would you turn up to treated like that?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Ave_it said:

    LOL Corbyn losing it!

    Wasn't this supposed to be a massive disaster for the Conservatives? According to PB....

    It's Cambridge. Of course it's going to be filled with lefties.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332
    GIN1138 said:

    Tezza won't do another election. This. Is. It.
    Yeah, so she might be positioning her chosen successor. That, or hoping a rival falls.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Amber Rudd actually arguing her party is looking after the disabled? UN investigation anyone.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,828
    What happens if we have a Ruddgasm after tonight? :smiley:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    TudorRose said:

    It will probably work to May's advantage; why would you turn up to treated like that?
    Sometimes you become a better player when you're not in the team
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,092
    Rudd treating Corbyn like a child. Haha
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,195
    Why didn't Rudd run for leader ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    alex. said:

    Minor parties barely getting a word in. Is Nuttall there? Is Corbyn?

    Amber Rudd basically getting twice as much airtime as everyone else.

    A benefit? Hard to say. Can look prime ministerial (oops), but the minor parties and Labour can leap in with angry, catchy attack lines, to rapturous applause.

    Corbyn's loving this (as is the crowd).

    I'll say this - Corbyn has had brain farts at times, but he's got his main lines down pat.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    If Amber Rudd is even 25% as good as what I'm reading she's been tonight, she is most likely going to be who the Tories will replace May with.

    The Tories will have had a third female leader.

    And Labour none....

    She may well be a capable leader of the opposition at this rate.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,995
    Amber doing a sterling job here.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Rudd holding her own here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,195
    Tim & Rudd double teaming Corbyn !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332
    Wow, that was only question one?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Was that bizarre, overly-long metaphor planned out by Rudd in advance?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    Scott_P said:

    @iainjwatson: & Angus Robertson calls for a top UK tax rate of 50p -snp froze higher threshold but didn't use new powers to increase 45p rate on Scotland

    You turnip Scott, tax must be done UK wide whilst we are still prisoners.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    tlg86 said:

    Corbyn confusing debt and deficit.

    Well, he's not alone there.

    Rudd is outnumbered here, with a typically cambridge audience - all she can do is play the firm headed adult, and hope that plays well to those at home.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    She may well be a capable leader of the opposition at this rate.
    That's a bit dramatic
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    GIN1138 said:

    What happens if we have a Ruddgasm after tonight? :smiley:

    Ask SeanT, he's usually the first to get a gasm.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,995
    Paul Nuttall doing a good job on immigration and corporation tax
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    Tim's making up anecdotes now
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513
    Lol! Farron blaming Brexit on the racist backlash after Manchester. What a C***
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Corbyn is winning hands down. Beautiful to see. Corbyn: Labour are the future; Fallon: look at the Tories' crap record. Rudd? "Magic money tree" indeed. That plays well to the Tory party membership, doubtless.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited May 2017

    Was that bizarre, overly-long metaphor planned out by Rudd in advance?

    Of course, and I've no idea what she meant by "yellow money" and "red money" in Monopoly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    Nuttal is probably right that people do want immigration reduced. But the interjector (I think Caroline) technically right that was not on the ballot paper.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    GIN1138 said:

    What happens if we have a Ruddgasm after tonight? :smiley:

    GIN, the big van with square wheels will turn up at your door and fit your new jacket before taking you away
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    malcolmg said:

    You turnip Scott, tax must be done UK wide whilst we are still prisoners.
    Malcolm - tax needs to be higher in Scotland only as they get bigger subsidies from London :lol:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    RobD said:

    Na, the lefties are just noisy buggers. :p
    Opposite of PB
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,751
    Pulpstar said:

    Why didn't Rudd run for leader ?

    Too associated with Remain. Had to be May, really, or someone like her, who, despite coming out for Reamin, wasn't overly associated with one side or other.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    May behind the sofa and sends second or third string in. She is useless and unable to defend the nasty policies.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Good call by Amber re immigration - no little England here
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    edited May 2017
    Cyan said:

    Corbyn is winning hands down. Beautiful to see. Corbyn: Labour are the future; Fallon: look at the Tories' crap record. Rudd? "Magic money tree" indeed. That plays well to the Tory party membership, doubtless.

    They are both appealing to different audiences - appealing to Tory supporters and UKIp supporters, and those who think Corbyn is not suited, gets the Tories a win. Attacking the Tories and drowning out anyone else trying to attack the Tories, gets Corbyn safe in the leadership and saves dozens of MPs.

    How do you think MI5 will work to reduce Corbyn's success here?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    malcolmg said:

    May behind the sofa and sends second or third string in. She is useless and unable to defend the nasty policies.

    Where's Nicola?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,995
    Not sure this is going to pay off for Corbyn tonight
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    When I suggested, about 18 months ago, that Amber Rudd might be the next Conservative leader, my suggestion was treated with derision by the usual suspects, and the bookies didn't even have her listed (despite the fact that she was already a Cabinet minister). In the event, the change of leadership came too early for her, but next time is quite possible. It's interesting that Theresa May has given her such a prominent place in her government and this campaign.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,828
    malcolmg said:

    GIN, the big van with square wheels will turn up at your door and fit your new jacket before taking you away
    You not a fan of Amber then Malc? :D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    On the EU, immigration, the family, and social conservatism, Osborne would have offered nothing, and would have been driven by the pet fads of metropolitan London.

    He would have been purely politically tactical on everything else.
    I fail to see the problem with that. I'm a Conservative because I believe in lower taxes, because I want to work to provide for my own family - not because I want the state to run my family.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    Tim's making up anecdotes now

    No, that is a true story, from Manchester.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9af41e4a-4313-11e7-87be-5b23ad6fd8ec

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    CORBYN HAHAHAHAHAHA!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Let me guess, yougov was the polling co responsible for balance in this audience.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    isam said:

    Tim's making up anecdotes now

    He's referring to this story:

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/hero-surgeon-who-spent-48-13105168

    Agree it's a slightly tenuous to link it to Brexit, I like to think he was linking it to UKIP's approach more generally.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    Never seen much of Rudd before, so far she seems capable.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,995
    Corbyn losing it over immigration
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,828
    Ave_it said:

    Where's Nicola?
    Touche! ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,073
    The compère is struggling a little and the format gives her a lot of influence over how this goes
  • It has been really entertaining this afternoon watching our resident Tories rubbishing the polls they don't like.

    One thing is looking clear - the next PM ill be a Tory; May wont lead them into 2022 (or whenever).

    That's a very smart betting observation, which I reckon is at least 75% likely to prove accurate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    malcolmg said:

    May behind the sofa and sends second or third string in. She is useless and unable to defend the nasty policies.

    Sends a second string who is doing a better job than she could manage!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,410
    Should I watch it - or carrying on pulling up weeds?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,092
    I think I fancy the presenter. :smile:
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    When I suggested, about 18 months ago, that Amber Rudd might be the next Conservative leader, my suggestion was treated with derision by the usual suspects, and the bookies didn't even have her listed (despite the fact that she was already a Cabinet minister). In the event, the change of leadership came too early for her, but next time is quite possible. It's interesting that Theresa May has given her such a prominent place in her government and this campaign.

    I must admit, I was very pleased to pick her out as the next Home Secretary. (Which was just as well as the other positions were less good.)
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Leanne whatever her name is, is dreadful

    LAB hold Rhondda
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    The PM is absolutely right to give this a miss. You can't have a current PM having to get shouty and arguing with these second-raters.

    Amber Rudd is EXCELLENT.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Rudd doing well.

    That doesn't necesarily work to May's long term advantage.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243
    edited May 2017
    malcolmg said:

    You turnip Scott, tax must be done UK wide whilst we are still prisoners.
    Not true. Scott is absolutely right. As of last month Scotland has the power to increase the top rate of tax from 45p to 50p on all income excepts savings and dividends.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    edited May 2017
    This audience is a little strange - they aren't lauding every line he says, but every other one gets huge applause.

    Oh, hi Leanne, you're still here? I think Mishal Husain asked her several questions in order to give her a chance to be seen.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513

    No, that is a true story, from Manchester.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9af41e4a-4313-11e7-87be-5b23ad6fd8ec

    Caused by Brexit? Or by the terrorist atrocity? Doesn't make it right, but Tim Farron was talking complete bollocks.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    Nuttall correct isn't he? The polls always say the public want less immigration
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,080

    Not sure this is going to pay off for Corbyn tonight

    Get real!!! He's already won - he's actually there. I know TMay is planning something special on Brexit but couldn't she spare 60 minutes?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,029
    RobD said:

    Yeah, so she might be positioning her chosen successor. That, or hoping a rival falls.
    Oh 'positioning' I read it as 'poisoning' at first.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ave_it said:

    Where's Nicola?
    She is an MSP, Angus Robertson is the leader of the SNP at Westminster.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,828
    kle4 said:

    Never seen much of Rudd before, so far she seems capable.

    The last time I saw her on telly she was hinting that Boris wasn't to be trusted with women after a party... ;)
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Alistair said:

    That doesn't necesarily work to May's long term advantage.
    Let's be honest here: after Brexit May is gone, and most likely she'll be happy to go. She won't want to do another GE campaign after this.
This discussion has been closed.