politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa’s Tories drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa’s Tories drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons seats spread markets
There’s been a big shake-up in the betting following the publication by the Times of YouGov’s new election model that suggests that Team Theresa could be net losers of seats a week tomorrow and not have a majority.
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She's worked in high finance, for such esteemed institutions like J.P. Morgan.
If that is typical of North Wales labour could lose Delyn and Wrexham
So different from opinion on here. Really good for TM
Solid
Oh, the YouGov tracker... yeah.
Which personality type do you want as your leader. This article suggests that Corbyn has a split personality?
1) UNS is too simplistic to make a prediction so someone has to come up with a better mechanism. personally I think that working out which groups are switching between parties is better but could be proven wrong.
2) the model is all well and good but if you can't get a representative sample (and some of the pollsters are definately getting it wrong but don't ask me who) then even a perfect model falls foul of the SISO rule.
On a different note, I wonder if these polls could be counterproductive for Labour? Suppose they still end up with around 150 seats - the shock will be much greater because they thought they had by their own exertions converted large chunks of the electorate to their cause. Remember, Miliband's performance wasn't actually that bad and in several key ways was better than Brown's - but because Labour were anticipating a return to power he was forced out and we got Corbyn as a sort of mass PTSD episode.
Could the same happen again? Could they ditch Corbyn for Macdonnell, who is after all holder of one of their safest seats?
In which case, welcome Leader of the Opposition Farron in 2022.
1. They have every council seat in the constituency, and won them at the height of coalition unpopularity
2. Heathrow is a much bigger issue in Twickenham than in Richmond
3. It is in the heart of Remainia
4. Tania Mathias has struggled to make an impact as the MP
5. The Labour vote is more than twice the UKIP one
6. The Green vote in 2015 was significantly more than the Conservative majority
7. Twickenham is more... how to put this... David Cameron country, than Theresa May country
I'd reckon Twickenham is the only odds on gain for the LibDems (from the Conservatives) in the country.
The question that's been running through my head over the last couple of days is
'where has the increased labour vote actually come from?'
This is especially puzzling as we know from the locals that UKIP have crumbled towards the tories. if you look at the previous GE where has the 38% come from (the peak labour vote share)
previous GE (c38 l31 u13 ld8 s5 g4)
yougov on the 24/25th (c43 l38 u4 ld10 s5 g1)
the most obvious switch is the ukip=>con, for this I'm going to give all 9% to the Tories but that gives the tories 47% which is somewhere near where they were at the beginning of the campaign.
when it comes to the labour vote I can't work it out if they have really be squeezing the left side of the tories and the greens that much? is it realistic to expect that 75% of green voters are going to vote Labour? have the SNP really gone nowhere?
if you take the ICM on 26-29th of (c45 l33 u5 ld8 s4 g3) it's reasonable to expect that the tories have lost 1-2 % to labour during the campaign, that the LDs have remained static, the SNP have lost 1% jointly to labour and the tories and that the greens are being squeezed by 1% by labour.
I know that there is going to be some polling error in all of this and that the narrative is all labour strength and tory weakness but I'm beginning to doubt most of the large labour surge is real.
An 'interesting' financial career.
Nothing to do with the Labour Shoe Tax .... honest guv ....
Nick Timothy putting the tit in Titan.
It's a well planned response to the question because it is what the 52% want to hear. She is now on a 100% Brexit, competence, security, economy drive. Everything else is irrelevant to her, she is just focused on getting the Brexiteers and Tory base out and riding the purple cushion.
I expect this is the high tide mark for Labour, when people go to the polling stations they will think 'Corbyn? .....no I just can't do it'
I think May is just shocked she's going to have to put some effort in and isn't a very good campaigner.
For me so long the Tories poll above 40% they are very safe. If you start seeing leading 3s only then does it get vaguely interesting.
Seriously - we've just had a bank holiday, it's half term - trying to do polls at the moment is just a waste of time and money (although perhaps less of a waste of time than worrying about them - or shouting at them!)
Part of the reason why we started paying attention to Labour's surge was because the first poll that showed it, showed Labour increasing their VI by 5% - above MOE.
Just ask yourself one simple question - can he ever make the final two?
And the answer is clearly 'no.' That is why Gove deserted him and stood himself and that is why Boris ultimately withdrew.
The only way he can do it is if the rules change so the members vote on the candidates directly. This has been experimented with by one party but the results may politely be called unfortunate.
Anyway, broadband is buggering me about so I am off for a swim. May be back Friday.
Yes, she's crap, but she's up against Corbyn, ignore the VI and the Tories/May are on course for victory.
She might have blown a 25% lead, but it is likely to be a 10-15% lead for the Blues which indicates a three figure majority.
The Tories don't fanny about, if she continues to be crap, she'll be deposed before she knows it.
The Tories toppled Thatcher when she had a 100 seat majority
WillS
Lord of the Flies style frenzy is easy to fall into inside the bubble
Every time someone sees their one bad day for may report they think yeah but she was very pm like over Manchester etc etc.
Most minds were made up 6 weeks ago.
Purgamentum init, exit purgamentum
One thing is looking clear - the next PM ill be a Tory; May wont lead them into 2022 (or whenever).
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/869908350019829760
WillS
Different methods for them, different soundbites.
You voted for Brexit, I'm busy planning for Brexit. Simples.
Witness her applause on Paxman once she got onto it. That's what they want, that's what she is delivering. It's unappealing to politicos but politicos won't give her a landslide. Think Brexiteer Kipper and review.
In 2010 the Conservatives were already 'in trouble' by January/February, some months out from the GE.
I think we've been used to suave performers like Cameron and Blair.
But that's very poor from Mrs May.
Like a pound shop Gordon Brown
Reminded me of this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTE6cTBrGcA
10% of 2015 Labour voters are now voting Tory and 6% of 2015 Tory voters are now voting Labour. 27% of 2015 LDs are voting Tory and 22% Labour. 46% of 2015 UKIP voters are voting Tory and 15% Labour
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/sites/tns-bmrb/files/KPUK - final tables - 31.5.2017.pdf
View it through that prism.