politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The jaws of victory. The Conservatives’ faltering campaign
Comments
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Another one who has disappeared!TheScreamingEagles said:
He was out campaigning with Aaron the week before last.IanB2 said:
Where is Mr Fox? I have been following the campaign very closely, but have heard or seen nothing of him since the snap election was announced.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.IanB2 said:
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.HenryGManson said:The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.0 -
Tactical voting will make all the difference in Richmond Park.Recidivist said:
Habitual tactical voter here. (I usually follow it up with tactical sulking as it never works.) There isn't much incentive for tactical voting for Lib Dems this time round. There is no realistic prospect of denying the Conservatives a majority. That being so, the most effective way to try and limit the damage is to swing behind the main opposition in the hope that even if they don't have the seats at least they'll have a big enough popular vote to be taken seriously. I think the Lib Dems might do well in a handful of seats like Lewes where they just missed last time, but overall I suspect they'll struggle.Barnesian said:
The latest Ashcroft model has Tory/LD/Lab shares for Richmond Park as 50%/32%/17%.View_From_Cumbria said:
A long time ago I used to do Maths questions - for Exams etc. The angst is that the analysis offered by his grace seems to be essentially correct but the reality will always be that there might be some 1=2 errors in the working which we haven't noticed. Lord Ashcroft also has a track record of not getting these things right.Yorkcity said:Why all this angst from Tories when Lord Ashcroft polls showing a majority of 142 ?
No campaign is ever perfect and I don't mean that as an understatement. They can veer off in the weirdest directions for little logical reason. For instance the social services policy, vilified a week ago is now seen to have some merit. BUT it was at Green Paper level and that was never / could never be explained.
I don't like the one person campaign myself - just reinforces the Spitting Image thing about Mrs T and the vegetables - at least the vegetables had names !
There is obviously a very wide margin for the possible majority and I think 136 is about the maximum reasonable expectation. But for me the key is 90 because that is where I think Westmorland swings Tory.
This one prediction alone destroys the credibility of his model. He is clearly ignoring the tactical vote effect.
I think there are three drivers:
1.Anti-Tory tactical voters (70% of LD /Green/Lab?)
2.Small number of Remain Tories moving to LD (10% of Remain Tories?)
3. UKIP movers to Tory (75% of UKIP?)
In Richmond Park, only 1 and 2 are relevant but in many seats, 3 overwhelms 1 and 2.
Modelling these three factors, and totally ignoring the polls and UNS, gives a national share:
Con 44%
Lab 35%
LD 9%
UKIP 5%
Tories gain 21 seats in England. Labour gains 1 (Brighton K) and LDs gain 4 (Bath, Kingston, Lewes and Twickenham).
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Nick Timothy you utter cock
https://twitter.com/JonnElledge/status/868499054229106688
https://twitter.com/katyballs/status/8684975633595105280 -
Out knocking on doors !IanB2 said:
Another one who has disappeared!TheScreamingEagles said:
He was out campaigning with Aaron the week before last.IanB2 said:
Where is Mr Fox? I have been following the campaign very closely, but have heard or seen nothing of him since the snap election was announced.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.IanB2 said:
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.HenryGManson said:The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.0 -
Exactly what was said of the underwhelming Hillary campaign. It was assumed that working class voters in Pennsylvania etc would turn out for her because they had nowhere else to go, they did.nielh said:
Where exactly are these seats that the tories are going to lose out on because of this dementia tax issue?blueblue said:
That decision will go down as the single most devastating policy blunder in electoral history - whatever the result turns out to be, it's knocked perhaps 50 seats off the Conservative total.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Wealthy tory pensioners: nowhere to go.
Investment bankers: nowhere to go.
PB tories/ frothers: nowhere to go.
Some may abstain, but so what, they are all going to be disproportionately in safe tory seats anyway.
And, the flipside is, where are Labour going to win ? Swindon? Dagenham? Nuneaton? No chance. They are just inspiring people in places where they are either going to win handsomely anyway, or have no hope of winning. So they will get a decent share of the popular vote, but disproportionately few seats.
What we will get is a massive tory majority, disproportionate to their share of the vote, and following a wholly underwhelming campaign.
Thats my most realistic assessment of the situation.
Corbyn is left-wing Trump.
An outsider, the person you vote for when you want to give the establishment a kicking. It's not logical or rational but when you feel like you've been taken for granted for years, you sometimes vote to give your own team a kicking if they've stopped listening to you.
The Tories' tone-deaf manifesto shows they're not listening. Might people vote to kick them even if Labour are worse?
It's quite easy to rationalise in the privacy of the voting booth. Well, I know Labour are going to tax me to death, but on the other hand the Tories are going to find a way to get hold of my home anyway, and wouldn't it be nice if my kids/grandkids could get a free university education, wouldn't it be nice if I could see the money-gouging privatised railways kicked just for once, etc...
Corbyn has a lot of little things that add up to a 'well, maybe I'll vote for him after all'.0 -
Exit Poll ....Scrapheap_as_was said:I've got to go out soon - just let me have 1 poll before I go...
Mrs JackW voted for Bim ....0 -
"Any cap of less than about £250k costs the government a fortune."Sandpit said:
Yes, which is why the decision of Mrs May to try and 'clarify' things - rather than defend the policy - is IMO wrong. Any cap of less than about £250k costs the government a fortune.Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?
Michael Portillo got this right on This Week. It's about inheritance and the protection of it by the wealthy, not about care.
Really? That wasn't my impression. Do you have the stats?
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Sadly Tim Farron is the Lib Dem leader not Norman Lamb.foxinsoxuk said:
May I commend the LibDems to socially conservative financially sane people?nielh said:
Where exactly are these seats that the tories are going to lose out on because of this dementia tax issue?blueblue said:
That decision will go down as the single most devastating policy blunder in electoral history - whatever the result turns out to be, it's knocked perhaps 50 seats off the Conservative total.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.HenryGManson said:The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Wealthy tory pensioners: nowhere to go.
Investment bankers: nowhere to go.
PB tories/ frothers: nowhere to go.
Some may abstain, but so what, they are all going to be disproportionately in safe tory seats anyway.
And, the flipside is, where are Labour going to win ? Swindon? Dagenham? Nuneaton? No chance. They are just inspiring people in places where they are either going to win handsomely anyway, or have no hope of winning. So they will get a decent share of the popular vote, but disproportionately few seats.
What we will get is a massive tory majority, disproportionate to their share of the vote, and following a wholly underwhelming campaign.
Thats my most realistic assessment of the situation.
It was Norman Lamb who introduced the cap on social care.
Leavers can rest assured that they can vote for Brexit a second time.
I hope to be roadtesting this message in Bosworth tommorow.0 -
He's not disappeared, he's trying win an election.IanB2 said:
Another one who has disappeared!TheScreamingEagles said:
He was out campaigning with Aaron the week before last.IanB2 said:
Where is Mr Fox? I have been following the campaign very closely, but have heard or seen nothing of him since the snap election was announced.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.IanB2 said:
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.HenryGManson said:The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.0 -
Expectation management?TheScreamingEagles said:
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Well they managed it in previous decades with rudimentary computers.RobD said:
No, but I wonder how much more expensive things would be with the enormous number of extra staff they would need to handle all the reservations and flight movements on paper.AndyJS said:
This wouldn't have happened with pen and paper.RobD said:
Was it? Their entire IT department should be fired if it was, given the huge amount of coverage that got.surbiton said:
wannacry !dyedwoolie said:All a flights from Heathrow and Gatwick cancelled for today.
Poor old holidaymakers0 -
PB is a very important constituency. We shouldn't be ignored, just because we have all made up our minds already.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's not disappeared, he's trying win an election.IanB2 said:
Another one who has disappeared!TheScreamingEagles said:
He was out campaigning with Aaron the week before last.IanB2 said:
Where is Mr Fox? I have been following the campaign very closely, but have heard or seen nothing of him since the snap election was announced.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.IanB2 said:
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.HenryGManson said:The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge. 0 -
So the Tories have gone from expecting a majority close to 200, to now expecting a majority of 80.0
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I don't think they were expecting 200, that was the ceiling.TheScreamingEagles said:So the Tories have gone from expecting a majority close to 200, to now expecting a majority of 80.
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They say that the memory is the first thing to go, then the, er I’ve forgotten the rest…Scott_P said:0 -
And Nick Timothy will still be safe and secure in No10 because the PM thinks the sun shines out of his arse.TheScreamingEagles said:So the Tories have gone from expecting a majority close to 200, to now expecting a majority of 80.
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I've already spent my Con gain Bootle and Westmorland & Lonsdale winnings.GIN1138 said:0 -
Still an inch thick, but width considerably narrower.TheScreamingEagles said:So the Tories have gone from expecting a majority close to 200, to now expecting a majority of 80.
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BA say not cyber-attack.AndyJS said:
Well they managed it in previous decades with rudimentary computers.RobD said:
No, but I wonder how much more expensive things would be with the enormous number of extra staff they would need to handle all the reservations and flight movements on paper.AndyJS said:
This wouldn't have happened with pen and paper.RobD said:
Was it? Their entire IT department should be fired if it was, given the huge amount of coverage that got.surbiton said:
wannacry !dyedwoolie said:All a flights from Heathrow and Gatwick cancelled for today.
Poor old holidaymakers
Very much doubt if BA or the airport is using the older Windows machines that could not be patched for Wannacry. There was a patch for newer stuff back in Feb.0 -
Where's Opinium?
Let's get this party started...0 -
It is very questionable whether Labour’s programme is capable of being implemented in full. I very much doubt that anyone senior in Labour cares. The aim is simply to get as many votes as possible. And in that the manifesto seems to be succeeding admirably...If they get elected, Labour will no doubt face an array of problems in making good on their promises. If they get elected, Labour will no doubt be delighted to face that array of problems.
Got that right. Impossible promises are usually sprinkled lightly through a manifesto I think, not baked right in, but it has worked very well, and it it future them's problem.
Apart from the bit where plenty of Tories predicted a majority of 60-80ish at the start, before they got carried away, then yes. Still over expecting, frankly.TheScreamingEagles said:So the Tories have gone from expecting a majority close to 200, to now expecting a majority of 80.
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The comments below the line are terrible for Theresa. A few weeks ago, the odd troll aside, the Speccie comments would have been universally gushing. Theresa still starting to be held in contempt by the British Right.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Expecting 420+? Come off it.TheScreamingEagles said:So the Tories have gone from expecting a majority close to 200, to now expecting a majority of 80.
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I believe Dilnot said the planned cap would cost £2b a year.TheWhiteRabbit said:
"Any cap of less than about £250k costs the government a fortune."Sandpit said:
Yes, which is why the decision of Mrs May to try and 'clarify' things - rather than defend the policy - is IMO wrong. Any cap of less than about £250k costs the government a fortune.Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?
Michael Portillo got this right on This Week. It's about inheritance and the protection of it by the wealthy, not about care.
Really? That wasn't my impression. Do you have the stats?0 -
The mood in CCHQ is one of annoyance verging on anger. A majority of 80 MPs is what a lot of Conservative MPs regard as par, so anything below that will be a disappointment. Theresa May’s decision to run a tight ship with her two closest advisers — Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill — at the helm could come back to haunt her. Tories were only happy going along with the high levels of control freakery on the basis that it worked.
As James reveals in the Sun, after the dementia tax U-turn amidst the Tory manifesto mayhem, Lynton Crosby — the Conservative election strategist — will be exerting more control on the campaign in its final days. Although Crosby had full control of the 2015 campaign, he only saw the manifesto (which led to the costly dementia tax U-turn) a day or so before it went to the printer.
This move may be enough to get the campaign on track. But whatever way you look at it, celebration plans for Theresa May’s win come June 9 have been put on ice.0 -
Andrea Leadsom is being kept away from anything to do with the election so she is free from blame and can take over as leader in the event of a perceived failure of May. Leadsom IS strong and stable.IanB2 said:
True. I saw the amusing Daily Politics sketch with their reporter travelling round shouting "where is Andrea Leadsome?". I just assumed she was off taking a holiday with Diane.foxinsoxuk said:
He is not the only Tory front bencher either hiding or being hidden from view! How much of this is voluntary, and how much is emulating the Great Leader in disappearing from the limelight we do not yet know.IanB2 said:
Where is Mr Fox? I have been following the campaign very closely, but have heard or seen nothing of him since the snap election was announced.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.IanB2 said:
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.HenryGManson said:
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.0 -
Opinium 45% vs 35%0
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It's no more to be believed than uncuts 140 seats nonsense. They are trying to frighten the waverers into turning out.TheScreamingEagles said:So the Tories have gone from expecting a majority close to 200, to now expecting a majority of 80.
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Lynton is a slow reader?TheScreamingEagles said:The mood in CCHQ is one of annoyance verging on anger. A majority of 80 MPs is what a lot of Conservative MPs regard as par, so anything below that will be a disappointment. Theresa May’s decision to run a tight ship with her two closest advisers — Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill — at the helm could come back to haunt her. Tories were only happy going along with the high levels of control freakery on the basis that it worked.
As James reveals in the Sun, after the dementia tax U-turn amidst the Tory manifesto mayhem, Lynton Crosby — the Conservative election strategist — will be exerting more control on the campaign in its final days. Although Crosby had full control of the 2015 campaign, he only saw the manifesto (which led to the costly dementia tax U-turn) a day or so before it went to the printer.
This move may be enough to get the campaign on track. But whatever way you look at it, celebration plans for Theresa May’s win come June 9 have been put on ice.0 -
The great news is that strong and stable Theresa will be negotiating Brexit. In all seriousness, has the electorate ever been given a worse choice than May v Corbyn?Theuniondivvie said:
Still an inch thick, but width considerably narrower.TheScreamingEagles said:So the Tories have gone from expecting a majority close to 200, to now expecting a majority of 80.
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The trouble with Portillo's argument, if you put the idea that social care should be universal like NHS to the side for a moment, is how does that square with the Tories belief in inheritance and indeed plans to make IHT nil-band up to £1m for married couples?TheWhiteRabbit said:
"Any cap of less than about £250k costs the government a fortune."Sandpit said:
Yes, which is why the decision of Mrs May to try and 'clarify' things - rather than defend the policy - is IMO wrong. Any cap of less than about £250k costs the government a fortune.Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?
Michael Portillo got this right on This Week. It's about inheritance and the protection of it by the wealthy, not about care.
Really? That wasn't my impression. Do you have the stats?0 -
Sir Lynton getting his excuses in early?TheScreamingEagles said:The mood in CCHQ is one of annoyance verging on anger. A majority of 80 MPs is what a lot of Conservative MPs regard as par, so anything below that will be a disappointment. Theresa May’s decision to run a tight ship with her two closest advisers — Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill — at the helm could come back to haunt her. Tories were only happy going along with the high levels of control freakery on the basis that it worked.
As James reveals in the Sun, after the dementia tax U-turn amidst the Tory manifesto mayhem, Lynton Crosby — the Conservative election strategist — will be exerting more control on the campaign in its final days. Although Crosby had full control of the 2015 campaign, he only saw the manifesto (which led to the costly dementia tax U-turn) a day or so before it went to the printer.
This move may be enough to get the campaign on track. But whatever way you look at it, celebration plans for Theresa May’s win come June 9 have been put on ice.0 -
Cameron deferred implementing the £72,000 cap because it is unaffordable.Sandpit said:
Yes, which is why the decision of Mrs May to try and 'clarify' things - rather than defend the policy - is IMO wrong. Any cap of less than about £250k costs the government a fortune.Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?
Michael Portillo got this right on This Week. It's about inheritance and the protection of it by the wealthy, not about care.
There is no logic to a cap but there is to a floor of £100,000. May should have stuck to her guns (strong and stable).0 -
You can certainly see why she avoided a televised debate.IanB2 said:
I didn't vote for Blair and won't be voting for May. I was however very cheerful as the sun came up in 1997, looking forward to the ethical foreign policy and voting system reform that Labour had promised us.foxinsoxuk said:
I think IanB2 is no fan of either, certainly I am not.Thorpe_Bay said:
Look in the mirror..then look up hypocrite.IanB2 said:
UKIP troll, two years too late.Thorpe_Bay said:
THE HYPOCRISY OF TORY VOTEERS HATING BLAIR BUT VOTING MAY IS DESPICABLEMonikerDiCanio said:
Guru Murphy's setting up of Fallon for the ambush was despicable. No wonder journalists are held in such low regard.Thorpe_Bay said:Fallon traincrash
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-fallon-channel-4-interview-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn-krishnan-guru-murthy-a7758746.html
just like the tories on here double standards.
SAME POLICES DIFFERENT PARTIES
anyone who hated blair but loves may is a partisan hypocrite.
Interesting thread here on May's lack of ability FWIW.
https://twitter.com/mrichardsonlaw/status/868434563986489344
The question of May's character is central, IMO, and more important that the minutiae of how to fund social care. The Tories spent three weeks telling us we needed a strong and stable leader, and then another week destroying their own pitch.0 -
Well targeting Leeds East would seem to confirm it.ThreeQuidder said:
Expecting 420+? Come off it.TheScreamingEagles said:So the Tories have gone from expecting a majority close to 200, to now expecting a majority of 80.
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Opinium 45 35 7 5
Leader ratings 45 31
Fieldwork Tues and weds
Baxtered majority of 84 (no adjustment for scotland) and Tim Farron leads a party of him only.0 -
Not bad, considering.Rexel56 said:Opinium 45% vs 35%
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Mr. B2, Arausio was only one in a series of battles the Cimbri fought against the Romans. The Cimbri didn't want to fight (perhaps excepting the last battle), the Romans forced it, and lost (again, until the last battle, when Julius Caesar's uncle finally beat them).
F1: I want to see the top scoring team market... which still isn't up.0 -
Windows XP is a red herring. Almost all the Wannacry infections were of Windows 7, according to Kapersky.rottenborough said:
BA say not cyber-attack.AndyJS said:
Well they managed it in previous decades with rudimentary computers.RobD said:
No, but I wonder how much more expensive things would be with the enormous number of extra staff they would need to handle all the reservations and flight movements on paper.AndyJS said:
This wouldn't have happened with pen and paper.RobD said:
Was it? Their entire IT department should be fired if it was, given the huge amount of coverage that got.surbiton said:
wannacry !dyedwoolie said:All a flights from Heathrow and Gatwick cancelled for today.
Poor old holidaymakers
Very much doubt if BA or the airport is using the older Windows machines that could not be patched for Wannacry. There was a patch for newer stuff back in Feb.0 -
It might be very wrong for Scotland. The under/over bets are currently at a mid-point of 46.5 SNP seats.MikeL said:
No - I didn't input anything special re Scotland so the model still gave 55 SNP seats (down just one).ThreeQuidder said:
Scotland?MikeL said:
Thanks - but that's just explaining the "bias" as at GE 2015.IanB2 said:
I think it is this:MikeL said:Inserting Con 42, Lab 39, LD 9, UKIP 2, Green 2 into Baxter gives a Con majority of 4.
This seems very surprising given that a lead of 6.6% in 2015 only gave a majority of 12 - it implies Con would only lose a net 4 seats.
Can anyone explain this?
Can anyone give an objective analysis of whether it's likely to be right or wrong (ie not just Con supporters saying it's right and Lab supporters saying it's wrong).
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/electoral-bias-in-the-uk-after-the-2015-general-election/
For the Baxter result to be correct (ie Con Majority of 4 on 42/39) it implies that the bias would have to have moved MORE in favour of Con between 2015 and 2017.
I don't think the article addresses such a proposition.
I appreciate that's likely to be wrong - but never mind - it's not relevant to my question - as the model gives the majority without any help from Scotland.0 -
Still consistent with a Tory share of 43% or 44%...Rexel56 said:Opinium 45% vs 35%
0 -
Link?dyedwoolie said:Opinium 45 35 7 5
Leader ratings 45 31
Fieldwork Tues and weds
Baxtered majority of 84 (no adjustment for scotland) and Tim Farron leads a party of him only.0 -
It's in opiniums website http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-23rd-may-2017/TheScreamingEagles said:
Link?dyedwoolie said:Opinium 45 35 7 5
Leader ratings 45 31
Fieldwork Tues and weds
Baxtered majority of 84 (no adjustment for scotland) and Tim Farron leads a party of him only.0 -
I am not sure the LibDem policy offers anything at all to Leavers or indeed to UK citizens as a whole.
Actually re Brexit. I have no real idea what the LibDems were thinking other than 'fanatical remainers please vote for us' which admittedly has worked in some by-elections but crashed and burned in the locals. At least in the West Country they have p*ssed on their chips for decades to come as a result.
As far as I understand it (I asked one of my former party colleagues and he thrashed around like an anoxic fish to the extent that I wished to throw him back) the vote would be between a first dreadful option of begging to come back into the EU under whatever conditions they wished, and the second dreadful option of whatever deal they would surely offer us if that was the first option.0 -
The story is well told in this book:Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B2, Arausio was only one in a series of battles the Cimbri fought against the Romans. The Cimbri didn't want to fight (perhaps excepting the last battle), the Romans forced it, and lost (again, until the last battle, when Julius Caesar's uncle finally beat them).
F1: I want to see the top scoring team market... which still isn't up.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/First-Man-Rome-Masters-Book-ebook/dp/B00KFDKSKO/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1495902419&sr=8-2&keywords=the+first+man+in+rome0 -
The LD 7 and UKIP 5 are also moderately encouraging for Con.dyedwoolie said:Opinium 45 35 7 5
Leader ratings 45 31
Fieldwork Tues and weds
Baxtered majority of 84 (no adjustment for scotland) and Tim Farron leads a party of him only.
LD low - less for Lab to squeeze, good for Con in Con/LD marginals
UKIP high - scope for squeeze0 -
Because people hadn't put in the patch.DecrepitJohnL said:
Windows XP is a red herring. Almost all the Wannacry infections were of Windows 7, according to Kapersky.rottenborough said:
BA say not cyber-attack.AndyJS said:
Well they managed it in previous decades with rudimentary computers.RobD said:
No, but I wonder how much more expensive things would be with the enormous number of extra staff they would need to handle all the reservations and flight movements on paper.AndyJS said:
This wouldn't have happened with pen and paper.RobD said:
Was it? Their entire IT department should be fired if it was, given the huge amount of coverage that got.surbiton said:
wannacry !dyedwoolie said:All a flights from Heathrow and Gatwick cancelled for today.
Poor old holidaymakers
Very much doubt if BA or the airport is using the older Windows machines that could not be patched for Wannacry. There was a patch for newer stuff back in Feb.0 -
Opinium
Con 45 (-1) Lab 35 (+2)
FIELDWORK TUES AND WED OF THIS WEEK
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-opinium-idUKKBN18N0Q80 -
Their weakness is that next to no-one has any idea how things work now, for residential care.rottenborough said:
The trouble with Portillo's argument, if you put the idea that social care should be universal like NHS to the side for a moment, is how does that square with the Tories belief in inheritance and indeed plans to make IHT nil-band up to £1m for married couples?TheWhiteRabbit said:
"Any cap of less than about £250k costs the government a fortune."Sandpit said:
Yes, which is why the decision of Mrs May to try and 'clarify' things - rather than defend the policy - is IMO wrong. Any cap of less than about £250k costs the government a fortune.Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?
Michael Portillo got this right on This Week. It's about inheritance and the protection of it by the wealthy, not about care.
Really? That wasn't my impression. Do you have the stats?0 -
0
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Opinium might settle a few Con nerves...0
-
The previous opinium was prior to the Tory manifesto launch.0
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-
Cheersdyedwoolie said:
It's in opiniums website http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-23rd-may-2017/TheScreamingEagles said:
Link?dyedwoolie said:Opinium 45 35 7 5
Leader ratings 45 31
Fieldwork Tues and weds
Baxtered majority of 84 (no adjustment for scotland) and Tim Farron leads a party of him only.0 -
The stories which will be told afterwards will be interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well targeting Leeds East would seem to confirm it.ThreeQuidder said:
Expecting 420+? Come off it.TheScreamingEagles said:So the Tories have gone from expecting a majority close to 200, to now expecting a majority of 80.
Conurbation shitholes were NEVER going to go Conservative but I'm imagine the North all looks the same from Westminster or Maidenhead.
425+ Conservative MPs was never realistic.0 -
Was the Conservatives stall offering tastings?Scott_P said:0 -
It's an older poll, sir, but it checks out.TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium
Con 45 (-1) Lab 35 (+2)
FIELDWORK TUES AND WED OF THIS WEEK
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-opinium-idUKKBN18N0Q8
0 -
That shows Cons taking Cerdigion from Lib Dems - second poll to show that but it not going to happen! Plaid will take it before the Tories dodyedwoolie said:Opinium 45 35 7 5
Leader ratings 45 31
Fieldwork Tues and weds
Baxtered majority of 84 (no adjustment for scotland) and Tim Farron leads a party of him only.0 -
Tory bedwetters crossing their legs .... for now.TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium
Con 45 (-1) Lab 35 (+2)
FIELDWORK TUES AND WED OF THIS WEEK
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-opinium-idUKKBN18N0Q80 -
Yes, they've steadied on the Moist Seats market.JackW said:
Tory bedwetters crossing their legs .... for now.TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium
Con 45 (-1) Lab 35 (+2)
FIELDWORK TUES AND WED OF THIS WEEK
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-opinium-idUKKBN18N0Q80 -
0
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So the first one comes before resumption of politics as normal.0
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What other polls are we expecting today?0
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Over two in five (43%) think that Theresa May would be the best prime minister (down from 45%). On the other hand 26% say Jeremy Corbyn would make the best prime minister (up from 22% last week).dyedwoolie said:
It's in opiniums website http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-23rd-may-2017/TheScreamingEagles said:
Link?dyedwoolie said:Opinium 45 35 7 5
Leader ratings 45 31
Fieldwork Tues and weds
Baxtered majority of 84 (no adjustment for scotland) and Tim Farron leads a party of him only.
Despite the declining gap between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, the gap is larger than the equivalent gap between David Cameron and Ed Miliband at a similar stage in the campaign.
May: +11
Corbyn: -11
Gap: 22
Cameron: -4
Miliband: -13
Gap: 90 -
BAXTER DOESNT WORK for third partiesmarke09 said:
That shows Cons taking Cerdigion from Lib Dems - second poll to show that but it not going to happen! Plaid will take it before the Tories dodyedwoolie said:Opinium 45 35 7 5
Leader ratings 45 31
Fieldwork Tues and weds
Baxtered majority of 84 (no adjustment for scotland) and Tim Farron leads a party of him only.0 -
That Opinium poll follows the trend: a declining Conservative lead.
Will be interesting to see what the other polls say.0 -
Yes, consistent with Kantar, Survation & ICM.RobD said:
It's an older poll, sir, but it checks out.TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium
Con 45 (-1) Lab 35 (+2)
FIELDWORK TUES AND WED OF THIS WEEK
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-opinium-idUKKBN18N0Q80 -
Mark Senior predicted this. I am aware that this is a subset.Theuniondivvie said:Utterly meaningless of course.
https://twitter.com/JamesKelly/status/8685049310949335040 -
Mr. Richard, cheers for that link, although I must admit I rarely read historical fiction nowadays.
That said, I have been reading current events in Dodge's second volume of his Napoleon biography.
Gareth Sampson wrote a history entitled Crisis of Rome (or similar). Covers the Cimbri and the Jugurthine War.0 -
In what way did the LDs crash and burn in the locals esp in the West CountryJonWC said:I am not sure the LibDem policy offers anything at all to Leavers or indeed to UK citizens as a whole.
Actually re Brexit. I have no real idea what the LibDems were thinking other than 'fanatical remainers please vote for us' which admittedly has worked in some by-elections but crashed and burned in the locals. At least in the West Country they have p*ssed on their chips for decades to come as a result.
As far as I understand it (I asked one of my former party colleagues and he thrashed around like an anoxic fish to the extent that I wished to throw him back) the vote would be between a first dreadful option of begging to come back into the EU under whatever conditions they wished, and the second dreadful option of whatever deal they would surely offer us if that was the first option.
Dorset vote share up 6.5%
Glos vote share up 7.1%
Somerset vote share up 4.8%
Devon vote share up 5.3%
Cornwall vote share up 7.5%
Wiltshire vote share up 6.3%0 -
All eye's on ComRes!!!!!0
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Wasn't Opiniums poll taken at peak Tory crapness?0
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Immediate aftermath of Manchester. Same time as the YouGov 5% leadRazedabode said:Wasn't Opiniums poll taken at peak Tory crapness?
0 -
Told you so LOLsurbiton said:
Mark Senior predicted this. I am aware that this is a subset.Theuniondivvie said:Utterly meaningless of course.
https://twitter.com/JamesKelly/status/8685049310949335040 -
ComRes, YouGov, Survation, possibly ICM and others...Stereotomy said:What other polls are we expecting today?
#MegaPollingSaturday0 -
ExactlyMarqueeMark said:
History has shown we should look at your canvass reports with a somewhat jaundiced eye, Nick!NickPalmer said:
Not my impression in marginal seats in Greater Nottingham. But DYOR.viewcode said:
+ Thisnielh said:The conservative campaign is an embarrassment and it is quite funny watching the disaster unfold. But the fact is that people won't vote for Corbyn in the places that count, and there is no evidence emerging to the contrary. No evidence of a pro corbyn wave in nuneaton, swindon, Thurrock etc.
Tick tock0 -
Opinium has Lab in front of Con in Scotland.0
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Interesting, if you're right May would have been better just 'U' turning on her manifesto rather than trying to 'O' turn.IanB2 said:
Like you I am still betting on a Tory majority.nielh said:
Where exactly are these seats that the tories are going to lose out on because of this dementia tax issue?blueblue said:
That decision will go down as the single most devastating policy blunder in electoral history - whatever the result turns out to be, it's knocked perhaps 50 seats off the Conservative total.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.HenryGManson said:The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Wealthy tory pensioners: nowhere to go.
Investment bankers: nowhere to go.
PB tories/ frothers: nowhere to go.
Some may abstain, but so what, they are all going to be disproportionately in safe tory seats anyway.
And, the flipside is, where are Labour going to win ? Swindon? Dagenham? Nuneaton? No chance. They are just inspiring people in places where they are either going to win handsomely anyway, or have no hope of winning. So they will get a decent share of the popular vote, but disproportionately few seats.
What we will get is a massive tory majority, disproportionate to their share of the vote, and following a wholly underwhelming campaign.
Thats my most realistic assessment of the situation.
But it isn't about care. It's about not being strong and stable.0 -
Tuesday and Wednesday, so in the post-Nynex[*] campaign pause.Razedabode said:Wasn't Opiniums poll taken at peak Tory crapness?
[*] Old Mancs will get it.0 -
Two weeks out, the story is more important than the numbers,The_Apocalypse said:That Opinium poll follows the trend: a declining Conservative lead.
Will be interesting to see what the other polls say.
0 -
I feel sorry for Chelsea. Never thought I'd say that.
That's a shocking decision.0 -
The way in which they were expecting to gain hatfuls of seats in Cornwall, Devon and Somerset at least and failed to do so. Even they have acknowledged immense disappointment. Now I get the impression they are just going through the motions and would be thrilled to win even a single seat.MarkSenior said:
In what way did the LDs crash and burn in the locals esp in the West CountryJonWC said:I am not sure the LibDem policy offers anything at all to Leavers or indeed to UK citizens as a whole.
Actually re Brexit. I have no real idea what the LibDems were thinking other than 'fanatical remainers please vote for us' which admittedly has worked in some by-elections but crashed and burned in the locals. At least in the West Country they have p*ssed on their chips for decades to come as a result.
As far as I understand it (I asked one of my former party colleagues and he thrashed around like an anoxic fish to the extent that I wished to throw him back) the vote would be between a first dreadful option of begging to come back into the EU under whatever conditions they wished, and the second dreadful option of whatever deal they would surely offer us if that was the first option.
Dorset vote share up 6.5%
Glos vote share up 7.1%
Somerset vote share up 4.8%
Devon vote share up 5.3%
Cornwall vote share up 7.5%
Wiltshire vote share up 6.3%0 -
Great. It's going to be absurd if the last 3 days of panic was due entirely to having that Yougov poll and nothing else.GIN1138 said:
ComRes, YouGov, Survation, possibly ICM and others...Stereotomy said:What other polls are we expecting today?
#MegaPollingSaturday0 -
Even more shocking than Mrs May's U-turn?TheScreamingEagles said:I feel sorry for Chelsea. Never thought I'd say that.
That's a shocking decision.0 -
It's more down to a trend of a declining Conservative lead than it is a single poll. YouGov was just the lowest poll lead we've seen for the Conservatives.Stereotomy said:
Great. It's going to be absurd if the last 3 days of panic was due entirely to having that Yougov poll and nothing else.GIN1138 said:
ComRes, YouGov, Survation, possibly ICM and others...Stereotomy said:What other polls are we expecting today?
#MegaPollingSaturday0 -
Oh one goal already from the 22 Overpaid McOverpaidfaces
(only kidding!)0 -
Anyway, must have Opinion Polls....0
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I thought the advice was look at the poll scores and where they are and the lead not so much.The_Apocalypse said:
It's more down to a trend of a declining Conservative lead than it is a single poll. YouGov was just the lowest poll lead we've seen for the Conservatives.Stereotomy said:
Great. It's going to be absurd if the last 3 days of panic was due entirely to having that Yougov poll and nothing else.GIN1138 said:
ComRes, YouGov, Survation, possibly ICM and others...Stereotomy said:What other polls are we expecting today?
#MegaPollingSaturday
If the Tories are still on mid 40s - well that's about as good as you could hope for I'd had have thought.0 -
Well done Mark something I would not have predicted . All the MSM said it was now Conservative Unionist v SNP binary choice .MarkSenior said:
Told you so LOLsurbiton said:
Mark Senior predicted this. I am aware that this is a subset.Theuniondivvie said:Utterly meaningless of course.
https://twitter.com/JamesKelly/status/8685049310949335040 -
Nothing like a good Scottish subsample to get PB juices flowing, but I do wonder if SLAB may pull off a few sneaky gains in 2 horse races.Theuniondivvie said:Utterly meaningless of course.
https://twitter.com/JamesKelly/status/8685049310949335040 -
Is that Ruth Davidson in the SCon photo? I wonder what would have happened if Sturgeon was outside the SNP stall.Scott_P said:0 -
Less volatile? Scotland: from SNP 47%, Con 28%, Lab 17% to SNP 46%, Lab 26%, Con 22% in a week: a 7.5% swing from Con to Lab.CarlottaVance said:0
