Ha, blocked. Don't remember ever interacting with him, but no doubt it would have been a tribute to his sterling (geddit) efforts to encourage UK-Saudi relations.
I'm still proud of my blocking by Dan Hannan when he said Vote Leave had never raised immigration during the EU ref campaign.
LOL he really said that?
I missed out a word from my original post.
Vote Leave had never focused/raised immigration much during the the campaign.
Question for voters Do you support Open borders? No Well you can't vote for Theresa May as she was home secretary for 7 years and failed to control immigration.
And I get told I'm not a Conservative. Look in the mirror and just say "I'm voting for someone who for 7 years has left our countries borders open and done nothing about it. Yes she calls herself a Conservative.
What is Conservative about open borders and letting anyone in?
If you're going to astroturf, at least get your facts right.
She was Home Secretary for six years.
It's hilarious how many posters pop out of the woodwork at election time.
If you can't take PB when it's mid term AV discussions, you don't deserve it three weeks out from a snap GE
The funny thing is, it's not like many PBers are going to change their vote.
Much like the Clinton bot that turned up, IIRC there are only two PBers who have an actual vote in American elections.
I'm not asking anyone to change their vote.
I'm asking people how they can call themselves a conservative and vote for may based on her record.
Ha, blocked. Don't remember ever interacting with him, but no doubt it would have been a tribute to his sterling (geddit) efforts to encourage UK-Saudi relations.
I'm still proud of my blocking by Dan Hannan when he said Vote Leave had never raised immigration during the EU ref campaign.
LOL he really said that?
I missed out a word from my original post.
Vote Leave had never focused/raised immigration much during the the campaign.
If they hadn't we'd be halfway through Cameron's second term, safe and sound inside the EU
The Hannans and Carswells of this world like to think they won without having to dirty themselves in immigration
Ha, blocked. Don't remember ever interacting with him, but no doubt it would have been a tribute to his sterling (geddit) efforts to encourage UK-Saudi relations.
I'm still proud of my blocking by Dan Hannan when he said Vote Leave had never raised immigration during the EU ref campaign.
LOL he really said that?
I missed out a word from my original post.
Vote Leave had never focused/raised immigration much during the the campaign.
The thing that made me really pay attention was the petulant sigh at 0:53 in sheer disbelief that anyone would question the lie.
Remarkably, Corbyn's apologists are mocking me for going on about his associations with terrorists, and then trying to squirm his way out of what he said and did.
What they are not doing, however, is condeming Mr Corbyn, who is, afterall, the very individual who is being exposed.
It tells you something about the morality and indeed the mentality of his supporters. I freely admit May royally cocked up the manifesto and has led an awful election campaign. I am no May apologist.
On the other hand, Corbyn's apologists cannot even condemn him for siding with a cause which murdered women and children.
May's first public election commitment - before the manifesto was even launched - was to maintain the 0.7% spend on foreign aid. A commitment that doesn't win over a single left-wing voter but alienates right-wing ones.
She needs a populist "wow" moment - announce a direct transfer of 10 billion from foreign aid to literally anything else that's necessary and popular, e.g. social care, the NHS, the police.
The left will froth, the right will cheer, middle England will secretly love the freebie. It would completely change the dynamic of the narrative. Now it's the Tories with a big giveaway to the British people, now it's May who's imaginative and can think on the hoof. Let Corbyn argue for borrowing to fund the rest of the world instead of our services.
Will we get it? No sodding chance.
p.s. CCHQ - if you're reading this, just fucking do it - or go back to your constituencies and prepare for unemployment!
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Supported remain Supported open borders Supported removal of Saddam and Gaddafi Supported endless money into the NHS Supported cutting number of police officers on our streets.
Inserting Con 42, Lab 39, LD 9, UKIP 2, Green 2 into Baxter gives a Con majority of 4.
This seems very surprising given that a lead of 6.6% in 2015 only gave a majority of 12 - it implies Con would only lose a net 4 seats.
Can anyone explain this?
Can anyone give an objective analysis of whether it's likely to be right or wrong (ie not just Con supporters saying it's right and Lab supporters saying it's wrong).
My expectation would be that a left wing candidate is more likely to pile up votes in traditionally strong Labour areas and be vulnerable in marginal seats, which would make the Tory vote more efficient by comparison. But what do I know.
Thanks - that's a reasonable hypothesis that may well be true, although it's also entirely possible it might not be.
However I don't think it explains the Baxter result - my understanding is that his is purely a mathematical model so I don't think it would make any adjustment for your type of hypothesis.
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Supported remain Supported open borders Supported removal of Saddam and Gaddafi Supported endless money into the NHS Supported cutting number of police officers on our streets.
Serious question: are there any Tories who think it would be better for their party to go into opposition for a while?
It is never better for a party to go into opposition - sometimes unavoidable but never better.
I think we are beginning to smell a whiff of the Tories biggest problem in 2021/2 - time for a change. That could have been a problem in 2020. If it doesn't develop then assuming a victory this year, good prospects for 2021. Bad prospects for 2022 as would mean an election had been ducked the year before.
May's first public election commitment - before the manifesto was even launched - was to maintain the 0.7% spend on foreign aid. A commitment that doesn't win over a single left-wing voter but alienates right-wing ones.
She needs a populist "wow" moment - announce a direct transfer of 10 billion from foreign aid to literally anything else that's necessary and popular, e.g. social care, the NHS, the police.
The left will froth, the right will cheer, middle England will secretly love the freebie. It would completely change the dynamic of the narrative. Now it's the Tories with a big giveaway to the British people, now it's May who's imaginative and can think on the hoof. Let Corbyn argue for borrowing to fund the rest of the world instead of our services.
Will we get it? No sodding chance.
p.s. CCHQ - if you're reading this, just fucking do it - or go back to your constituencies and prepare for unemployment!
How about sack theresa may and make boris or michael gove leader at least they supported leave and want closed borders.
Three massive hospitals in my town have been closed this century, they could easily have been care homes for the elderly, one practically was!
Indeed the council workhouse hospitals had just that purpose. The Leicester General Hospital was one. The NHS took control of these but now turns away the frail elderly and insists they self fund.
We have considerably fewer hospital beds per head of population than similar countries.
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Supported remain Supported open borders Supported removal of Saddam and Gaddafi Supported endless money into the NHS Supported cutting number of police officers on our streets.
What are you trying to say?
no difference between theresa may and tony blair just parties.
if you hate blair you must hate may. they stand for the same things. I hate both.
Inserting Con 42, Lab 39, LD 9, UKIP 2, Green 2 into Baxter gives a Con majority of 4.
This seems very surprising given that a lead of 6.6% in 2015 only gave a majority of 12 - it implies Con would only lose a net 4 seats.
Can anyone explain this?
Can anyone give an objective analysis of whether it's likely to be right or wrong (ie not just Con supporters saying it's right and Lab supporters saying it's wrong).
It would be an issue if the IRA were still bombing us, but now even her Majesty is meeting former IRA terrorists.
The Queen didn't lie about shaking hands with Martin McGuinness. And she sure as hell didn't do it because she wanted to. The IRA murdered her husband's uncle, ffs.
I wonder if his advisers have told him to stick with the 'I thought they were acting on behalf of Sinn Fein, honest I did, gov, I did it all for peace, honest'.
Corbyn's chickens have come home to roost. Finally.
They must have. You're counting them
The Guido list includes meetings that took place after 2005, when the IRA got rid of all its weapons. Remember that both Adams and McGuinness had been in the IRA. Does it matter? Ask the monarch. Throughout the peace process the British government's position was that it was meeting with, ahem, Sinn Fein. They always pretended they weren't meeting directly with anyone in the IRA. Exactly the same pretence was kept up by the IRA itself.
Only the pre-2005 contacts are worth considering. If former IRA men since the dissolution of the IRA as an armed organisation want to commemorate Bloody Sunday, it is not unlawful for them to do so. Take the 1984 meeting, when Jeremy Corbyn invited Linda Quigley and Gerard MacLochlainn to the Houses of Parliament. If they were known at that time to be members of the IRA, a proscribed organisation, why weren't they arrested?
MacLochlainn had been convicted of an explosives conspiracy charge in 1981, and presumably he had been in the IRA then. But in 1984 he was Sinn Fein's representative in London.
The issue of course is that Corbyn may have lied.
The pretence in British politics for decades has been that the PIRA and Provisional Sinn Fein were separate organisations. This goes to British decolonisation theory where you keep control of a country by getting the politicos on your side and then they help you by keeping their military in check. Corbyn was working within that pretence. He didn't go to meetings where the IRA gangsters fired off their weapons in salutes; he met "Irish Republicans" for political discussions, one politician to another. Sure, there was hypocrisy. Big deal. There was a peace settlement and the troubles stopped. If you really think about it, Britgov must have welcomed links between a few Labour politicians and Sinn Fein.
This may damage Corbyn a little bit, but it's increasingly looking like all the Tories have got. Give up social care, let your children get into big tuition-fee debt, let them pay rent to private landlords all their lives, just because a Labour leader in his late 60s met with Sinn Fein politicians 30 years ago, and some of them had previously been in the IRA? Millions of British people don't care much about Brexit and they don't care much about Irish stuff from 30 years ago either.
I don't think a Daily Mail story counts as evidence! Even Wikipedia doesn't accept that nowadays. Last week the DM ran a whole story based on a fake tweet.
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Supported remain Supported open borders Supported removal of Saddam and Gaddafi Supported endless money into the NHS Supported cutting number of police officers on our streets.
What are you trying to say?
no difference between theresa may and tony blair just parties.
if you hate blair you must hate may. they stand for the same things. I hate both.
Tony Blair achieved more for the working class than any Labour leader who never won an election.
Why all this angst from Tories when Lord Ashcroft polls showing a majority of 142 ?
A long time ago I used to do Maths questions - for Exams etc. The angst is that the analysis offered by his grace seems to be essentially correct but the reality will always be that there might be some 1=2 errors in the working which we haven't noticed. Lord Ashcroft also has a track record of not getting these things right.
No campaign is ever perfect and I don't mean that as an understatement. They can veer off in the weirdest directions for little logical reason. For instance the social services policy, vilified a week ago is now seen to have some merit. BUT it was at Green Paper level and that was never / could never be explained.
I don't like the one person campaign myself - just reinforces the Spitting Image thing about Mrs T and the vegetables - at least the vegetables had names !
There is obviously a very wide margin for the possible majority and I think 136 is about the maximum reasonable expectation. But for me the key is 90 because that is where I think Westmorland swings Tory.
My gut reaction is a 15O Maj for the conservatives. I always thought leaders for the three main parties were usually safe in England due to their high profile national media exposure.Maybe from what you are saying not in this case in Westmorland.
It would be an issue if the IRA were still bombing us, but now even her Majesty is meeting former IRA terrorists.
The Queen didn't lie about shaking hands with Martin McGuinness. And she sure as hell didn't do it because she wanted to. The IRA murdered her husband's uncle, ffs.
That's kinda my point, if she can move on from it, so might the country.
Inserting Con 42, Lab 39, LD 9, UKIP 2, Green 2 into Baxter gives a Con majority of 4.
This seems very surprising given that a lead of 6.6% in 2015 only gave a majority of 12 - it implies Con would only lose a net 4 seats.
Can anyone explain this?
Can anyone give an objective analysis of whether it's likely to be right or wrong (ie not just Con supporters saying it's right and Lab supporters saying it's wrong).
Thanks - but that's just explaining the "bias" as at GE 2015.
For the Baxter result to be correct (ie Con Majority of 4 on 42/39) it implies that the bias would have to have moved MORE in favour of Con between 2015 and 2017.
I don't think the article addresses such a proposition.
She needs a populist "wow" moment - announce a direct transfer of 10 billion from foreign aid to literally anything else that's necessary and popular, e.g. social care, the NHS, the police.
Bring back the death penalty. Bring back the birch. Bring back national service. Send back the foreigners. Lock up the queers.
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Cheer him up, tell him as a lifelong Tory, you're not voting Tory at the general election
(Just don't mention there's no Tory candidate in your seat)
For the second General Election in a row I will not be voting Tory.
Third time this millenium too.....
Third election in a row surely?
Bloody hell - it is as well. So 4 times in 17 years in a GE, I haven't voted Tory... or put another way only once this millenium have I voted Tory in a GE.
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Cheer him up, tell him as a lifelong Tory, you're not voting Tory at the general election
(Just don't mention there's no Tory candidate in your seat)
For the second General Election in a row I will not be voting Tory.
Third time this millenium too.....
Third election in a row surely?
Bloody hell - it is as well. So 4 times in 17 years in a GE, I haven't voted Tory... or put another way only once this millenium have I voted Tory in a GE.
They'll throw me out!
And to think David Cameron was Tory leader for nearly eleven years of this millennium.
So which Tory didn't get your vote this millennium
May's first public election commitment - before the manifesto was even launched - was to maintain the 0.7% spend on foreign aid. A commitment that doesn't win over a single left-wing voter but alienates right-wing ones.
She needs a populist "wow" moment - announce a direct transfer of 10 billion from foreign aid to literally anything else that's necessary and popular, e.g. social care, the NHS, the police.
The left will froth, the right will cheer, middle England will secretly love the freebie. It would completely change the dynamic of the narrative. Now it's the Tories with a big giveaway to the British people, now it's May who's imaginative and can think on the hoof. Let Corbyn argue for borrowing to fund the rest of the world instead of our services.
Will we get it? No sodding chance.
p.s. CCHQ - if you're reading this, just fucking do it - or go back to your constituencies and prepare for unemployment!
How about sack theresa may and make boris or michael gove leader at least they supported leave and want closed borders.
I thought Boris was pro Immigration , well he was when London Mayor. Thought he supported an amnesty on illegal immigrants ?
I'm shocked the Conservatives aren't fielding a candidate in a constituency. I would have thought the main two parties would be fielding candidates in all the 600+ constituencies.
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Cheer him up, tell him as a lifelong Tory, you're not voting Tory at the general election
(Just don't mention there's no Tory candidate in your seat)
For the second General Election in a row I will not be voting Tory.
Third time this millenium too.....
Third election in a row surely?
Bloody hell - it is as well. So 4 times in 17 years in a GE, I haven't voted Tory... or put another way only once this millenium have I voted Tory in a GE.
They'll throw me out!
And to think David Cameron was Tory leader for nearly eleven years of this millennium.
So which Tory didn't get your vote this millennium
I don't think a Daily Mail story counts as evidence! Even Wikipedia doesn't accept that nowadays. Last week the DM ran a whole story based on a fake tweet.
Fliers said captain and gate staff at Gatwick believe it could be a cyber attack
It would be an issue if the IRA were still bombing us, but now even her Majesty is meeting former IRA terrorists.
The Queen didn't lie about shaking hands with Martin McGuinness. And she sure as hell didn't do it because she wanted to. The IRA murdered her husband's uncle, ffs.
That's kinda my point, if she can move on from it, so might the country.
You and the others can hand wring to your hearts content. I'm just glad that his cynical pretence that he did it for peace and that his blatant lie about not meeting them will now get out there into the public consciousness.
If the public do want him as PM after all of this, then your theory will have been proved correct.
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Cheer him up, tell him as a lifelong Tory, you're not voting Tory at the general election
(Just don't mention there's no Tory candidate in your seat)
For the second General Election in a row I will not be voting Tory.
Third time this millenium too.....
Third election in a row surely?
Bloody hell - it is as well. So 4 times in 17 years in a GE, I haven't voted Tory... or put another way only once this millenium have I voted Tory in a GE.
They'll throw me out!
And to think David Cameron was Tory leader for nearly eleven years of this millennium.
So which Tory didn't get your vote this millennium
Inserting Con 42, Lab 39, LD 9, UKIP 2, Green 2 into Baxter gives a Con majority of 4.
This seems very surprising given that a lead of 6.6% in 2015 only gave a majority of 12 - it implies Con would only lose a net 4 seats.
Can anyone explain this?
Can anyone give an objective analysis of whether it's likely to be right or wrong (ie not just Con supporters saying it's right and Lab supporters saying it's wrong).
Thanks - but that's just explaining the "bias" as at GE 2015.
For the Baxter result to be correct (ie Con Majority of 4 on 42/39) it implies that the bias would have to have moved MORE in favour of Con between 2015 and 2017.
I don't think the article addresses such a proposition.
I'm shocked the Conservatives aren't fielding a candidate in a constituency. I would have thought the main two parties would be fielding candidates in all the 600+ constituencies.
Recent convention is that none of Con/Lab/LDs stand in the Speaker's seat.
I don't think a Daily Mail story counts as evidence! Even Wikipedia doesn't accept that nowadays. Last week the DM ran a whole story based on a fake tweet.
Fliers said captain and gate staff at Gatwick believe it could be a cyber attack
So the Daily Mail says that some random passengers said that staff whose job it is putting tickets into a machine said that it *could* be a cyber attack?
It could indeed be a cyber attack. But that isn't a story.
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Cheer him up, tell him as a lifelong Tory, you're not voting Tory at the general election
(Just don't mention there's no Tory candidate in your seat)
For the second General Election in a row I will not be voting Tory.
Third time this millenium too.....
Third election in a row surely?
Bloody hell - it is as well. So 4 times in 17 years in a GE, I haven't voted Tory... or put another way only once this millenium have I voted Tory in a GE.
They'll throw me out!
And to think David Cameron was Tory leader for nearly eleven years of this millennium.
So which Tory didn't get your vote this millennium
Can't you guess?
John Bercow in 2005? Please say it is that!
Nope - living somewhere else then.... it was 2001, all that 24 hours to say the pound rubbish and the baseball cap champ. My short-lived 'Yellow' period.
I'm shocked the Conservatives aren't fielding a candidate in a constituency. I would have thought the main two parties would be fielding candidates in all the 600+ constituencies.
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Cheer him up, tell him as a lifelong Tory, you're not voting Tory at the general election
(Just don't mention there's no Tory candidate in your seat)
For the second General Election in a row I will not be voting Tory.
Third time this millenium too.....
Third election in a row surely?
Bloody hell - it is as well. So 4 times in 17 years in a GE, I haven't voted Tory... or put another way only once this millenium have I voted Tory in a GE.
They'll throw me out!
And to think David Cameron was Tory leader for nearly eleven years of this millennium.
So which Tory didn't get your vote this millennium
Can't you guess?
John Bercow in 2005? Please say it is that!
Nope - living somewhere else then.... it was 2001, all that 24 hours to say the pound rubbish and the baseball cap champ. The short-lived 'Yellow' period.
Why all this angst from Tories when Lord Ashcroft polls showing a majority of 142 ?
A long time ago I used to do Maths questions - for Exams etc. The angst is that the analysis offered by his grace seems to be essentially correct but the reality will always be that there might be some 1=2 errors in the working which we haven't noticed. Lord Ashcroft also has a track record of not getting these things right.
No campaign is ever perfect and I don't mean that as an understatement. They can veer off in the weirdest directions for little logical reason. For instance the social services policy, vilified a week ago is now seen to have some merit. BUT it was at Green Paper level and that was never / could never be explained.
I don't like the one person campaign myself - just reinforces the Spitting Image thing about Mrs T and the vegetables - at least the vegetables had names !
There is obviously a very wide margin for the possible majority and I think 136 is about the maximum reasonable expectation. But for me the key is 90 because that is where I think Westmorland swings Tory.
My gut reaction is a 15O Maj for the conservatives. I always thought leaders for the three main parties were usually safe in England due to their high profile national media exposure.Maybe from what you are saying not in this case in Westmorland.
Tim Farron has been able to say one thing in one street and another in another. But when he opposes Brexit on TV they all see it - even the proles have TVs now. He would be safe as houses if he wasn't party leader.
She needs a populist "wow" moment - announce a direct transfer of 10 billion from foreign aid to literally anything else that's necessary and popular, e.g. social care, the NHS, the police.
Bring back the death penalty. Bring back the birch. Bring back national service. Send back the foreigners. Lock up the queers.
I'm shocked the Conservatives aren't fielding a candidate in a constituency. I would have thought the main two parties would be fielding candidates in all the 600+ constituencies.
Recent convention is that none of Con/Lab/LDs stand in the Speaker's seat.
Thanks that for that info.
I wonder if the other MPs are a bit jealous of Bercow then?
Why all this angst from Tories when Lord Ashcroft polls showing a majority of 142 ?
A long time ago I used to do Maths questions - for Exams etc. The angst is that the analysis offered by his grace seems to be essentially correct but the reality will always be that there might be some 1=2 errors in the working which we haven't noticed. Lord Ashcroft also has a track record of not getting these things right.
No campaign is ever perfect and I don't mean that as an understatement. They can veer off in the weirdest directions for little logical reason. For instance the social services policy, vilified a week ago is now seen to have some merit. BUT it was at Green Paper level and that was never / could never be explained.
I don't like the one person campaign myself - just reinforces the Spitting Image thing about Mrs T and the vegetables - at least the vegetables had names !
There is obviously a very wide margin for the possible majority and I think 136 is about the maximum reasonable expectation. But for me the key is 90 because that is where I think Westmorland swings Tory.
My gut reaction is a 15O Maj for the conservatives. I always thought leaders for the three main parties were usually safe in England due to their high profile national media exposure.Maybe from what you are saying not in this case in Westmorland.
Tim Farron has been able to say one thing in one street and another in another. But when he opposes Brexit on TV they all see it - even the proles have TVs now. He would be safe as houses if he wasn't party leader.
Oh and his agent objects to Conservative national material being distributed in W&L because it has a photo of his Timness in it - so, they don't think it is an advantage.
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Cheer him up, tell him as a lifelong Tory, you're not voting Tory at the general election
(Just don't mention there's no Tory candidate in your seat)
For the second General Election in a row I will not be voting Tory.
Third time this millenium too.....
Third election in a row surely?
Bloody hell - it is as well. So 4 times in 17 years in a GE, I haven't voted Tory... or put another way only once this millenium have I voted Tory in a GE.
They'll throw me out!
THe REAL sotto voce test for "soundness" is did you vote Tory in 1997 ?
Mr. Alex, you may be right. I still think it's a daft bet. [I do seem to have developed an odd blind spot in that area, I got something else wrong earlier].
Anyway, at least the tiny sum I backed Raikkonen with has now been hedged.
Inserting Con 42, Lab 39, LD 9, UKIP 2, Green 2 into Baxter gives a Con majority of 4.
This seems very surprising given that a lead of 6.6% in 2015 only gave a majority of 12 - it implies Con would only lose a net 4 seats.
Can anyone explain this?
Can anyone give an objective analysis of whether it's likely to be right or wrong (ie not just Con supporters saying it's right and Lab supporters saying it's wrong).
Thanks - but that's just explaining the "bias" as at GE 2015.
For the Baxter result to be correct (ie Con Majority of 4 on 42/39) it implies that the bias would have to have moved MORE in favour of Con between 2015 and 2017.
I don't think the article addresses such a proposition.
Scotland?
No - I didn't input anything special re Scotland so the model still gave 55 SNP seats (down just one).
I appreciate that's likely to be wrong - but never mind - it's not relevant to my question - as the model gives the majority without any help from Scotland.
I wonder whether the spread-betting firms' markets will remain open tonight? There could be some chunky adjustments to the spreads should the Tory lead lead move outside a range of around 5% - 9%.
I wonder whether the spread-betting firms' markets will remain open tonight? There could be some chunky adjustments to the spreads should the Tory lead lead move outside a range of around 5% - 9%.
When do the taster tweets normally start appearing?
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Cheer him up, tell him as a lifelong Tory, you're not voting Tory at the general election
(Just don't mention there's no Tory candidate in your seat)
For the second General Election in a row I will not be voting Tory.
Third time this millenium too.....
Third election in a row surely?
Bloody hell - it is as well. So 4 times in 17 years in a GE, I haven't voted Tory... or put another way only once this millenium have I voted Tory in a GE.
They'll throw me out!
THe REAL sotto voce test for "soundness" is did you vote Tory in 1997 ?
SophyRidge On SundayVerified account @RidgeOnSunday 8m8 minutes ago
4 Scottish leaders on the show tmrw LIVE in Glasgow. If @British_Airways can't fix its PCs, one of them might have to be presenter... #Ridge
Sophy needs to book herself a berth on the sleeper. Perhaps Sunil could give her some tips?
(Auto correct just changed Sophy to 'so physical'!)
I don't do sleepers. Due to my ubergeekery, I like to do my rail routes in daylight. Hope to do Skipton to Carlisle (via Settle) next week, and Northallerton to Sunderland. And the rare route Knottingley to Goole (one train a day in that direction!).
She needs a populist "wow" moment - announce a direct transfer of 10 billion from foreign aid to literally anything else that's necessary and popular, e.g. social care, the NHS, the police.
Bring back the death penalty. Bring back the birch. Bring back national service. Send back the foreigners. Lock up the queers.
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Cheer him up, tell him as a lifelong Tory, you're not voting Tory at the general election
(Just don't mention there's no Tory candidate in your seat)
For the second General Election in a row I will not be voting Tory.
Third time this millenium too.....
Third election in a row surely?
Bloody hell - it is as well. So 4 times in 17 years in a GE, I haven't voted Tory... or put another way only once this millenium have I voted Tory in a GE.
They'll throw me out!
THe REAL sotto voce test for "soundness" is did you vote Tory in 1997 ?
Oh yes....
See we we're real Tories.
We never succumbed to Blair's charm.
So glad the party has moved on from 1997 and the obsession with Europe.
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Supported remain Supported open borders Supported removal of Saddam and Gaddafi Supported endless money into the NHS Supported cutting number of police officers on our streets.
What are you trying to say?
no difference between theresa may and tony blair just parties.
if you hate blair you must hate may. they stand for the same things. I hate both.
In two weeks time there is a General Election which is not asking you to chose your prefered leader for the Conservative Party, it is in effect asking you a binary question:
Do you want the country to be run by May or Corbyn for the next five years.
As a supposed conservative think carefully before answering, it's a tough one I know.
Why all this angst from Tories when Lord Ashcroft polls showing a majority of 142 ?
A long time ago I used to do Maths questions - for Exams etc. The angst is that the analysis offered by his grace seems to be essentially correct but the reality will always be that there might be some 1=2 errors in the working which we haven't noticed. Lord Ashcroft also has a track record of not getting these things right.
No campaign is ever perfect and I don't mean that as an understatement. They can veer off in the weirdest directions for little logical reason. For instance the social services policy, vilified a week ago is now seen to have some merit. BUT it was at Green Paper level and that was never / could never be explained.
I don't like the one person campaign myself - just reinforces the Spitting Image thing about Mrs T and the vegetables - at least the vegetables had names !
There is obviously a very wide margin for the possible majority and I think 136 is about the maximum reasonable expectation. But for me the key is 90 because that is where I think Westmorland swings Tory.
The latest Ashcroft model has Tory/LD/Lab shares for Richmond Park as 50%/32%/17%.
This one prediction alone destroys the credibility of his model. He is clearly ignoring the tactical vote effect.
Ok, I think we have had enough of this nonsense. Time for the Tory lead to increase again tonight. Hopefully to something very close to double figures.
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Cheer him up, tell him as a lifelong Tory, you're not voting Tory at the general election
(Just don't mention there's no Tory candidate in your seat)
For the second General Election in a row I will not be voting Tory.
Third time this millenium too.....
Third election in a row surely?
Bloody hell - it is as well. So 4 times in 17 years in a GE, I haven't voted Tory... or put another way only once this millenium have I voted Tory in a GE.
They'll throw me out!
THe REAL sotto voce test for "soundness" is did you vote Tory in 1997 ?
Oh yes....
See we we're real Tories.
We never succumbed to Blair's charm.
So glad the party has moved on from 1997 and the obsession with Europe.
Indeed though for me it was more to do with my extremely allergic reaction to Gordon Brown even then...
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Supported remain Supported open borders Supported removal of Saddam and Gaddafi Supported endless money into the NHS Supported cutting number of police officers on our streets.
What are you trying to say?
no difference between theresa may and tony blair just parties.
if you hate blair you must hate may. they stand for the same things. I hate both.
In two weeks time there is a General Election which is not asking you to chose your prefered leader for the Conservative Party, it is in effect asking you a binary question:
Do you want the country to be run by May or Corbyn for the next five years.
As a supposed conservative think carefully before answering, it's a tough one I know.
Nigel farage is a national hero. he gets my vote for President of the UK.
I think young people who are only getting their election news from Twitter and Facebook are going to vote for Labour, even if tactically it would be better to vote Lib Dem in some constiuencies.
I think the average of tonight's polls will be something like Con 45%, Lab 33%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%, Greens 2%.
Much will depend on whether we get an ICM or a ComRes.
I think ICM and ComRes (and MORI) are far more likely to give significantly higher Con leads - because they are weighting turnout based on 2015 - not what people say re likelihood to vote.
Look at the difference between the following:
19-21 May - ICM: Con +14 18-22 May - Kantar: Con +8
And Kantar said that the Con lead would roughly double if only based on people who actually voted in 2015.
Thus these ICM and Kantar polls are actually pretty much in line with each other.
May's first public election commitment - before the manifesto was even launched - was to maintain the 0.7% spend on foreign aid. A commitment that doesn't win over a single left-wing voter but alienates right-wing ones.
She needs a populist "wow" moment - announce a direct transfer of 10 billion from foreign aid to literally anything else that's necessary and popular, e.g. social care, the NHS, the police.
The left will froth, the right will cheer, middle England will secretly love the freebie. It would completely change the dynamic of the narrative. Now it's the Tories with a big giveaway to the British people, now it's May who's imaginative and can think on the hoof. Let Corbyn argue for borrowing to fund the rest of the world instead of our services.
Will we get it? No sodding chance.
p.s. CCHQ - if you're reading this, just fucking do it - or go back to your constituencies and prepare for unemployment!
How about sack theresa may and make boris or michael gove leader at least they supported leave and want closed borders.
I thought Boris was pro Immigration , well he was when London Mayor. Thought he supported an amnesty on illegal immigrants ?
Of course Boris is a liberal on immigration. Takes after his great grandfather, Ali Kemal.
I think the average of tonight's polls will be something like Con 45%, Lab 33%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%, Greens 2%.
Much will depend on whether we get an ICM or a ComRes.
I think ICM and ComRes (and MORI) are far more likely to give significantly higher Con leads - because they are weighting turnout based on 2015 - not what people say re likelihood to vote.
Look at the difference between the following:
19-21 May - ICM: Con +14 18-22 May - Kantar: Con +8
And Kantar said that the Con lead would roughly double if only based on people who actually voted in 2015.
Thus these ICM and Kantar polls are actually pretty much in line with each other.
We're getting a ComRes at 6pm.
My sources tell me we should also get an ICM, but that might not be released until quite late or even the morning.
Am expecting also ORB, Opinium, and maybe Survation (online) too.
Comments
Vote Leave had never focused/raised immigration much during the the campaign.
I'm asking people how they can call themselves a conservative and vote for may based on her record.
I haven't stated anything fiction.
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/868466053885702145
vote conservative no matter the policy.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4547776/Diane-Abbott-admits-Jeremy-Corbyn-met-IRA-members.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/diane-abbott-lbc-interview-video-jeremy-corbyn-ira-meetings-platform-car-crash-iain-dale-a7759241.html
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3663959/diane-abbott-blows-hole-in-jeremy-corbyns-claim-not-to-have-met-ira-members-by-admitting-he-spent-time-with-them-in-their-capacity-as-sinn-fein-activists/
The Hannans and Carswells of this world like to think they won without having to dirty themselves in immigration
What they are not doing, however, is condeming Mr Corbyn, who is, afterall, the very individual who is being exposed.
It tells you something about the morality and indeed the mentality of his supporters. I freely admit May royally cocked up the manifesto and has led an awful election campaign. I am no May apologist.
On the other hand, Corbyn's apologists cannot even condemn him for siding with a cause which murdered women and children.
Go figure.
It would be an issue if the IRA were still bombing us, but now even her Majesty is meeting former IRA terrorists.
She needs a populist "wow" moment - announce a direct transfer of 10 billion from foreign aid to literally anything else that's necessary and popular, e.g. social care, the NHS, the police.
The left will froth, the right will cheer, middle England will secretly love the freebie. It would completely change the dynamic of the narrative. Now it's the Tories with a big giveaway to the British people, now it's May who's imaginative and can think on the hoof. Let Corbyn argue for borrowing to fund the rest of the world instead of our services.
Will we get it? No sodding chance.
p.s. CCHQ - if you're reading this, just fucking do it - or go back to your constituencies and prepare for unemployment!
Supported open borders
Supported removal of Saddam and Gaddafi
Supported endless money into the NHS
Supported cutting number of police officers on our streets.
However I don't think it explains the Baxter result - my understanding is that his is purely a mathematical model so I don't think it would make any adjustment for your type of hypothesis.
(Just don't mention there's no Tory candidate in your seat)
I think we are beginning to smell a whiff of the Tories biggest problem in 2021/2 - time for a change. That could have been a problem in 2020. If it doesn't develop then assuming a victory this year, good prospects for 2021. Bad prospects for 2022 as would mean an election had been ducked the year before.
Anyway I guess someone has to be CCHQ's bidding on here.
We have considerably fewer hospital beds per head of population than similar countries.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds
if you hate blair you must hate may. they stand for the same things. I hate both.
The number of times England have scored 300 plus since the 2015 world cup.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/electoral-bias-in-the-uk-after-the-2015-general-election/
The Guido list includes meetings that took place after 2005, when the IRA got rid of all its weapons. Remember that both Adams and McGuinness had been in the IRA. Does it matter? Ask the monarch. Throughout the peace process the British government's position was that it was meeting with, ahem, Sinn Fein. They always pretended they weren't meeting directly with anyone in the IRA. Exactly the same pretence was kept up by the IRA itself.
Only the pre-2005 contacts are worth considering. If former IRA men since the dissolution of the IRA as an armed organisation want to commemorate Bloody Sunday, it is not unlawful for them to do so. Take the 1984 meeting, when Jeremy Corbyn invited Linda Quigley and Gerard MacLochlainn to the Houses of Parliament. If they were known at that time to be members of the IRA, a proscribed organisation, why weren't they arrested?
MacLochlainn had been convicted of an explosives conspiracy charge in 1981, and presumably he had been in the IRA then. But in 1984 he was Sinn Fein's representative in London.
The issue of course is that Corbyn may have lied.
The pretence in British politics for decades has been that the PIRA and Provisional Sinn Fein were separate organisations. This goes to British decolonisation theory where you keep control of a country by getting the politicos on your side and then they help you by keeping their military in check. Corbyn was working within that pretence. He didn't go to meetings where the IRA gangsters fired off their weapons in salutes; he met "Irish Republicans" for political discussions, one politician to another. Sure, there was hypocrisy. Big deal. There was a peace settlement and the troubles stopped. If you really think about it, Britgov must have welcomed links between a few Labour politicians and Sinn Fein.
This may damage Corbyn a little bit, but it's increasingly looking like all the Tories have got. Give up social care, let your children get into big tuition-fee debt, let them pay rent to private landlords all their lives, just because a Labour leader in his late 60s met with Sinn Fein politicians 30 years ago, and some of them had previously been in the IRA? Millions of British people don't care much about Brexit and they don't care much about Irish stuff from 30 years ago either.
Third time this millenium too.....
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/868218891809562624
For the Baxter result to be correct (ie Con Majority of 4 on 42/39) it implies that the bias would have to have moved MORE in favour of Con between 2015 and 2017.
I don't think the article addresses such a proposition.
It's hardly rocket science.
They'll throw me out!
Con 376/382
Lab 180/186
LD 14/17
SNP 44/47
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.ebb77a08-5cd6-4e69-9096-cdc826441491/uk-general-election-seats-markets
So which Tory didn't get your vote this millennium
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4547442/British-Airways-apologise-customers-facing-delays.html#ixzz4iHy1gO8h
If the public do want him as PM after all of this, then your theory will have been proved correct.
But Vettel is 1.9 and Raikkonen 2.1 to win. I think the decimal place on the first bet is not in the correct position.
Markets still coming through. Mostly not tempting, there is one I'll give a second look at.
It could indeed be a cyber attack. But that isn't a story.
I wonder if the other MPs are a bit jealous of Bercow then?
Anyway, at least the tiny sum I backed Raikkonen with has now been hedged.
I appreciate that's likely to be wrong - but never mind - it's not relevant to my question - as the model gives the majority without any help from Scotland.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-fallon-channel-4-interview-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn-krishnan-guru-murthy-a7758746.html
just like the tories on here double standards.
We never succumbed to Blair's charm.
So glad the party has moved on from 1997 and the obsession with Europe.
Do you want the country to be run by May or Corbyn for the next five years.
As a supposed conservative think carefully before answering, it's a tough one I know.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
This one prediction alone destroys the credibility of his model. He is clearly ignoring the tactical vote effect.
I think ICM and ComRes (and MORI) are far more likely to give significantly higher Con leads - because they are weighting turnout based on 2015 - not what people say re likelihood to vote.
Look at the difference between the following:
19-21 May - ICM: Con +14
18-22 May - Kantar: Con +8
And Kantar said that the Con lead would roughly double if only based on people who actually voted in 2015.
Thus these ICM and Kantar polls are actually pretty much in line with each other.
SAME POLICES DIFFERENT PARTIES
I realised I was a Thatcherite free marketeer.
Plus John Major and Ken Clarke loved their cricket, and I thought sound fellows.
This tweet is for you
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/868478938791772161
My sources tell me we should also get an ICM, but that might not be released until quite late or even the morning.
Am expecting also ORB, Opinium, and maybe Survation (online) too.
Edit - And YouGov for sure.