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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The jaws of victory. The Conservatives’ faltering campaign
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The jaws of victory. The Conservatives’ faltering campaign
The wheels have come off the wagon for Team Theresa. Just two weeks ago the blue team’s lead looked more fearsome than the north face of the Eiger. Theresa May looked to be cruising to victory and the saboteurs were on track to be crushed. The stocks were sold; the press was squared: the middle class was quite prepared. But the middle class were emphatically not prepared for the Tories’ social care policy, which seems to have gone down like rat poison with those voters who are potentially affected by it.
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The consensus was that it was a bad idea: although there doesn't appear to be a legal regime in place, the pollster won't be happy
On topic. Yes, Mr Meeks, the Tories need to raise their game and sharpish.
I really don't see the problem.
BA still tight lipped as to whether it's a system failure or a cyber attack.
The thing is, with the benefit of hindsight that looked to be a very risky strategy. Labours manifesto was always going to be populist and headline-grabbing. They needed to be able to explain why it was a bad idea to pursue these policies. Instead they've relied on leadership qualities, which I guess is a plus for them but has the disadvantage of being somewhat vacuous when it comes to the crunch.
What they need to do now in the remaining week and a half is really step it up, go on Brexit, immigration and national security, the three areas where Labour is most vulnerable.
The Shadow Home Secretary's remarks appeared to contradict Mr Corbyn's assertion yesterday that he had never met with the Republican terrorist group.
The Labour leader has come under fire for his past association with militant Republicans, including inviting convicted IRA terrorists to the House of Commons just weeks after the Brighton bombing in 1984.
In an interview on the BBC last night, Mr Corbyn insisted he had "never met the IRA" and had done his best to help negotiate a peaceful solution to the conflict in Northern Ireland.
But this morning Ms Abbott appeared to contradict that assertion, telling LBC radio: "I think that his understanding is he met with them in their capacity as activists in Sinn Fein."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/jeremy-corbyn-thinks-real-evil-western-intervention-not-isil/
Oh sorry, that is councillors
Where the Tories got lucky in 2015 was that the SNP surge (and the knock-on consequences for parliamentary arithmetic / government) provided the Tories with new material to talk about right up until polling day.
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?
He wants to be PM, not uncle Jeremy who is good fun at Christmas.
Conversely if she gets a massive majority, completely screws the pooch on BrExit, and we get an end result which infuriates the party and the country, she is still toast. If she has 400 MPs in parliament, it still only takes 60MPs furious with her and her settlement to start the process of replacing her.
Although I don't recall Trump ever saying he supported the cause of terrorism to achieve peace.
Look at your own leader before throwing stones.
Outside of porn films, I'm not sure that there are any other literally seminal films.
TMay has put more money into the security services, Diane Abbott wants them disbanded.
TMay lost a friend to IRA bombing, John McDonnell congratulated their bombing.
Corbyn supported the IRA and their aims. TMay does not support terrorists.
It would seem that might just possibly be the case.
BA is nothing to do with security.
Both There's Something About Mary and Dodgeball have had profound impacts on me.
2) British Airways is nothing to do with the government,
3) The BA is issue is an IT issue isn't it?
A practical factor is that the freepost literature will have already been printed and should arrive in a week or so. Presumably the Tory ones are full of "strong and stable" stuff, which they've shut up about for obvious reasons this week. Do they try to revive it in campaigning and hope people forget the social care stuff?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/
I suspect it is an upgrade gone wrong
The new a new hospital was estimated as around 600m (based on the cost of building the new QE Hospital in Birmingham). So a couple or so might be more realistic.
So I'm expecting a quiet, uneventful night.
If the person has severe health needs as a result of dementia or anything else their care is free (It's called Continuing Health Care).
The difference between health and social care is often contentious but it hinges on the severity, complexity, frequency etc of the needs
Put that against tuition fees, care homes and rent control (just those three are very important to many people, far more so than Brexit and abstract promises), and then there is social housing, rail nationalisation too, and if people ask which party is the party of the NHS, well the colour of the NHS may be blue, but seriously! Labour's USP is social protection.
There may even be a "shy Labour" vote. The Labour livery looks a bit kitsch, and the Labour leader is softly-spoken - not in a Clint Eastwood way - and he has a neck beard. But social protection...yes, this is what people want. I know he's changed his position on some things, but he still exudes principle. Labour are reminiscent of Better Together during the indyref. They weren't very "in your face" at all, and they had far fewer banners up than the "Yes" campaign. They were perceived not as cool, not as something you wanted to shout your support for, but as right.
Brexit and immigration aren't important in this election. There would have to be one hell of a Cologne-type story.
Whingeing on about Corbyn and the IRA in the 1980s looks like weakness. And it has the big problem that if the Tories want to play this on personalities (or character) then their own leader gets looked at too. And her presentation looks superficial - the chunky necklaces, the shoes, the hairstyle - she's "That Bloody Woman", mark 2.
This could be the first time I place other than a tiny bet on an outcome I actually want. I'm thinking it might be sensible to wait for one or two more polls only.
Con need a clear simple selling point - Leave supporters thinking only Con will actually leave the EU would be a very powerful one.