I think the average of tonight's polls will be something like Con 45%, Lab 33%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%, Greens 2%.
Much will depend on whether we get an ICM or a ComRes.
I think ICM and ComRes (and MORI) are far more likely to give significantly higher Con leads - because they are weighting turnout based on 2015 - not what people say re likelihood to vote.
Look at the difference between the following:
19-21 May - ICM: Con +14 18-22 May - Kantar: Con +8
And Kantar said that the Con lead would roughly double if only based on people who actually voted in 2015.
Thus these ICM and Kantar polls are actually pretty much in line with each other.
We're getting a ComRes at 6pm.
My sources tell me we should also get an ICM, but that might not be released until quite late or even the morning.
Am expecting also ORB, Opinium, and maybe Survation (online) too.
On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?
No.
Elderly homeowners with significant wealth (housing or otherwise) should pay for their own care
If tony bliar was a member of the conservative party, I'm sure many of you would have the same views you have for theresa may.
vote conservative no matter the policy.
Oh dear.
Supported remain Supported open borders Supported removal of Saddam and Gaddafi Supported endless money into the NHS Supported cutting number of police officers on our streets.
What are you trying to say?
no difference between theresa may and tony blair just parties.
if you hate blair you must hate may. they stand for the same things. I hate both.
In two weeks time there is a General Election which is not asking you to chose your prefered leader for the Conservative Party, it is in effect asking you a binary question:
Do you want the country to be run by May or Corbyn for the next five years.
As a supposed conservative think carefully before answering, it's a tough one I know.
Nigel farage is a national hero. he gets my vote for President of the UK.
Welcome to my ignore list. I refuse to read this sort of idiotic astroturfing for the next two weeks... and it will only be two weeks. We have seen a few over the years, and people popping up this close to an election pushing a particular view incessantly have this predictable habit of disappearing the day after the election.
I think the average of tonight's polls will be something like Con 45%, Lab 33%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%, Greens 2%.
Much will depend on whether we get an ICM or a ComRes.
I think ICM and ComRes (and MORI) are far more likely to give significantly higher Con leads - because they are weighting turnout based on 2015 - not what people say re likelihood to vote.
Look at the difference between the following:
19-21 May - ICM: Con +14 18-22 May - Kantar: Con +8
And Kantar said that the Con lead would roughly double if only based on people who actually voted in 2015.
Thus these ICM and Kantar polls are actually pretty much in line with each other.
We're getting a ComRes at 6pm.
My sources tell me we should also get an ICM, but that might not be released until quite late or even the morning.
Am expecting also ORB, Opinium, and maybe Survation (online) too.
A very good header. You make the point which I hadn't considered; Whether she wins or loses her reputation for strong and stable leadership is now well and trully shot.
Any 'The Lady's Not for Turning' will have us Remainers and her ex- EU partners falling about.
I think the average of tonight's polls will be something like Con 45%, Lab 33%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%, Greens 2%.
Much will depend on whether we get an ICM or a ComRes.
I think ICM and ComRes (and MORI) are far more likely to give significantly higher Con leads - because they are weighting turnout based on 2015 - not what people say re likelihood to vote.
Look at the difference between the following:
19-21 May - ICM: Con +14 18-22 May - Kantar: Con +8
And Kantar said that the Con lead would roughly double if only based on people who actually voted in 2015.
Thus these ICM and Kantar polls are actually pretty much in line with each other.
We're getting a ComRes at 6pm.
My sources tell me we should also get an ICM, but that might not be released until quite late or even the morning.
Am expecting also ORB, Opinium, and maybe Survation (online) too.
Guru Murphy's setting up of Fallon for the ambush was despicable. No wonder journalists are held in such low regard.
THE HYPOCRISY OF TORY VOTEERS HATING BLAIR BUT VOTING MAY IS DESPICABLE
SAME POLICES DIFFERENT PARTIES
UKIP troll, two years too late.
When he/she said that they would vote for Nigel Farage to be President I knew they were on a wind up
The diehard Kipper rump really are pretty desperate these days. Thorpe Bay is mild compared to what is being spouted by most remaining Kippers all over social media.
Guru Murphy's setting up of Fallon for the ambush was despicable. No wonder journalists are held in such low regard.
Such truths are only treason when they come from Labour mouths, not Boris or DD:
"The decision to go to war was part of a cascade of mistakes that resulted in the careless destruction of a nation, our complicity in the use of torture, our ceding of the moral high ground, and an increased risk of terrorism at home."
F1: it's mildly irksome that some of my favourite markets are the last to go up...
Grid is rather good, but I do think the race may be a horrendous procession. However, if it's a horrendous procession with a safety car, I'll happily accept that. Especially if Raikkonen wins.
I think the average of tonight's polls will be something like Con 45%, Lab 33%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%, Greens 2%.
Much will depend on whether we get an ICM or a ComRes.
I think ICM and ComRes (and MORI) are far more likely to give significantly higher Con leads - because they are weighting turnout based on 2015 - not what people say re likelihood to vote.
Look at the difference between the following:
19-21 May - ICM: Con +14 18-22 May - Kantar: Con +8
And Kantar said that the Con lead would roughly double if only based on people who actually voted in 2015.
Thus these ICM and Kantar polls are actually pretty much in line with each other.
We're getting a ComRes at 6pm.
My sources tell me we should also get an ICM, but that might not be released until quite late or even the morning.
Am expecting also ORB, Opinium, and maybe Survation (online) too.
Edit - And YouGov for sure.
You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing opinion polls. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I actually caught it! You know, I just... Do things.
Guru Murphy's setting up of Fallon for the ambush was despicable. No wonder journalists are held in such low regard.
Such truths are only treason when they come from Labour mouths, not Boris or DD:
"The decision to go to war was part of a cascade of mistakes that resulted in the careless destruction of a nation, our complicity in the use of torture, our ceding of the moral high ground, and an increased risk of terrorism at home."
It's bullshit journalism. I'm sure we could come up with a quote from an Austrian corporal that you''d agree with or statement from Nelson Mandela that you'd condemn. Rolly-polly Guru Murphy's gotcha moment was empty and fake,
Typo in the header, The jews of victory is of course what Lab will be whining about on June 9.
That Corbyn attack video - surely there is no way back from "I have opposed all anti-terror legislation since 1983"? Saying the IRA have a point or hamas have a point, or even both, are respectable positions to take, but opposing anti-terror legislation for the sake of it? Does anyone know the context in which he said it?
Guru Murphy's setting up of Fallon for the ambush was despicable. No wonder journalists are held in such low regard.
Such truths are only treason when they come from Labour mouths, not Boris or DD:
"The decision to go to war was part of a cascade of mistakes that resulted in the careless destruction of a nation, our complicity in the use of torture, our ceding of the moral high ground, and an increased risk of terrorism at home."
Why all this angst from Tories when Lord Ashcroft polls showing a majority of 142 ?
A long time ago I used to do Maths questions - for Exams etc. The angst is that the analysis offered by his grace seems to be essentially correct but the reality will always be that there might be some 1=2 errors in the working which we haven't noticed. Lord Ashcroft also has a track record of not getting these things right.
No campaign is ever perfect and I don't mean that as an understatement. They can veer off in the weirdest directions for little logical reason. For instance the social services policy, vilified a week ago is now seen to have some merit. BUT it was at Green Paper level and that was never / could never be explained.
I don't like the one person campaign myself - just reinforces the Spitting Image thing about Mrs T and the vegetables - at least the vegetables had names !
There is obviously a very wide margin for the possible majority and I think 136 is about the maximum reasonable expectation. But for me the key is 90 because that is where I think Westmorland swings Tory.
The latest Ashcroft model has Tory/LD/Lab shares for Richmond Park as 50%/32%/17%.
This one prediction alone destroys the credibility of his model. He is clearly ignoring the tactical vote effect.
Habitual tactical voter here. (I usually follow it up with tactical sulking as it never works.) There isn't much incentive for tactical voting for Lib Dems this time round. There is no realistic prospect of denying the Conservatives a majority. That being so, the most effective way to try and limit the damage is to swing behind the main opposition in the hope that even if they don't have the seats at least they'll have a big enough popular vote to be taken seriously. I think the Lib Dems might do well in a handful of seats like Lewes where they just missed last time, but overall I suspect they'll struggle.
In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived level terror threat so soon? It would seem that might just possibly be the case.
Last night I tried to log onto my BA account, and it said that it would be offline until 3am due to an upgrade. The question is, was that just them hiding a cyber attack. Or did they duck up a systems upgrade.
I didn't vote for Blair and won't be voting for May. I was however very cheerful as the sun came up in 1997, looking forward to the ethical foreign policy and voting system reform that Labour had promised us.
The question of May's character is central, IMO, and more important that the minutiae of how to fund social care. The Tories spent three weeks telling us we needed a strong and stable leader, and then another week destroying their own pitch.
I didn't vote for Blair and won't be voting for May. I was however very cheerful as the sun came up in 1997, looking forward to the ethical foreign policy and voting system reform that Labour had promised us.
The question of May's character is central, IMO, and more important that the minutiae of how to fund social care. The Tories spent three weeks telling us we needed a strong and stable leader, and then another week destroying their own pitch.
I do seriously wonder why someone who hates campaigning, interviews and retail politics, as May appears to do, called an early election. Bit masochistic.
Guru Murphy's setting up of Fallon for the ambush was despicable. No wonder journalists are held in such low regard.
Such truths are only treason when they come from Labour mouths, not Boris or DD:
"The decision to go to war was part of a cascade of mistakes that resulted in the careless destruction of a nation, our complicity in the use of torture, our ceding of the moral high ground, and an increased risk of terrorism at home."
I was speaking to a Coptic friend of mine about this just this morning.
She tells me that there has long been a problem of persecution of Copts, but this sort of violence has got a lot worse since Libya became a failed state. It is from there and the Gaza strip that militants hideout, and cross the border to murder, with Egyptian Islamists collaborating.
The Military coup against the Islamist government in 2013 was supported by several foreign nations, but also the Coptic community there.
Evening all. Just catching up after a mad Monaco qualy session and finally watching the Corbyn/Neil interview.
As a political watcher, Corbyn gave the standard responses he's always given, but I think his comments about terrorists in the past will now reach a new and bigger audience. His comment about having 'Never met the IRA' will probably lead the hostile Sundays, with a bunch of examples of when he did just that. I wish Neil had spent more time on the manifesto though, we all know Corbyn's numbers just don't add up, and he obviously doesn't think that government bonds count as borrowing - WTF on that last point.
Oh, and having been pleased not to be the NHS IT guy a couple of weeks ago, I'm pleased not to be the BA IT guy today.
I didn't vote for Blair and won't be voting for May. I was however very cheerful as the sun came up in 1997, looking forward to the ethical foreign policy and voting system reform that Labour had promised us.
The question of May's character is central, IMO, and more important that the minutiae of how to fund social care. The Tories spent three weeks telling us we needed a strong and stable leader, and then another week destroying their own pitch.
I do seriously wonder why someone who hates campaigning, interviews and retail politics, as May appears to do, called an early election. Bit masochistic.
I suppose she reckoned she would have to fight one, and is self aware enough to know that 2017 looked a whole lot easier than 2020?
Guru Murphy's setting up of Fallon for the ambush was despicable. No wonder journalists are held in such low regard.
Such truths are only treason when they come from Labour mouths, not Boris or DD:
"The decision to go to war was part of a cascade of mistakes that resulted in the careless destruction of a nation, our complicity in the use of torture, our ceding of the moral high ground, and an increased risk of terrorism at home."
It's bullshit journalism. I'm sure we could come up with a quote from an Austrian corporal that you''d agree with or statement from Nelson Mandela that you'd condemn. Rolly-polly Guru Murphy's gotcha moment was empty and fake,
Do you disagree with David Davis on how the Iraq war increased the risk of terrorism here? It is his own words and on his own blog so unlikely to be quoted out of context!
I didn't vote for Blair and won't be voting for May. I was however very cheerful as the sun came up in 1997, looking forward to the ethical foreign policy and voting system reform that Labour had promised us.
The question of May's character is central, IMO, and more important that the minutiae of how to fund social care. The Tories spent three weeks telling us we needed a strong and stable leader, and then another week destroying their own pitch.
I do seriously wonder why someone who hates campaigning, interviews and retail politics, as May appears to do, called an early election. Bit masochistic.
I suppose she reckoned she would have to fight one, and is self aware enough to know that 2017 looked a whole lot better than 2020?
Wonder whether she is still thinking that!
I wonder if Nick Timothy has been allowed off the naughty step yet.
Evening all. Just catching up after a mad Monaco qualy session and finally watching the Corbyn/Neil interview.
As a political watcher, Corbyn gave the standard responses he's always given, but I think his comments about terrorists in the past will now reach a new and bigger audience. His comment about having 'Never met the IRA' will probably lead the hostile Sundays, with a bunch of examples of when he did just that. I wish Neil had spent more time on the manifesto though, we all know Corbyn's numbers just don't add up, and he obviously doesn't think that government bonds count as borrowing - WTF on that last point.
Oh, and having been pleased not to be the NHS IT guy a couple of weeks ago, I'm pleased not to be the BA IT guy today.
Government bonds probably don't count as borrowing in Corbyn's world: his government will simply cancel them when it doesn't feel like paying out the coupon anymore.
Guru Murphy's setting up of Fallon for the ambush was despicable. No wonder journalists are held in such low regard.
Do you really feel that way? I thought it demonstrated perfectly that Fallon was being a hypocrite. Clearly he doesn't really disagree with what Corbyn actually said but had been sent out to call him a terrorist sympathiser/lover/pal etc...
But there was nothing unfair about it - Fallon could have said... Those comments are different for some reason. If he'd really been paying attention he might have heard that it doesn't really sound like Corbynite language...
Guru Murphy's setting up of Fallon for the ambush was despicable. No wonder journalists are held in such low regard.
Such truths are only treason when they come from Labour mouths, not Boris or DD:
"The decision to go to war was part of a cascade of mistakes that resulted in the careless destruction of a nation, our complicity in the use of torture, our ceding of the moral high ground, and an increased risk of terrorism at home."
I was speaking to a Coptic friend of mine about this just this morning.
She tells me that there has long been a problem of persecution of Copts, but this sort of violence has got a lot worse since Libya became a failed state. It is from there and the Gaza strip that militants hideout, and cross the border to murder, with Egyptian Islamists collaborating.
The Military coup against the Islamist government in 2013 was supported by several foreign nations, but also the Coptic community there.
Daesh want to kill all christians and atheists.
There is nothing to negotiate. In their heads this is a religious war to the end.
In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived level terror threat so soon? It would seem that might just possibly be the case.
Last night I tried to log onto my BA account, and it said that it would be offline until 3am due to an upgrade. The question is, was that just them hiding a cyber attack. Or did they duck up a systems upgrade.
Oh dear - looks like they ducked up an upgrade then.
When I worked for a software company in the hospitality industry we had a policy of never doing upgrades on Fridays - because everyone wanted the weekend off and it was the busiest time for the customers.
If BA have done a software upgrade on a Friday night of a BH weekend, and it's ducked things up, then the CIO (or whoever was the most senior person to sign off the upgrade) deserves a P45 on Monday Tuesday morning. He's safer in his job if it's a cyber attack.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Why all this angst from Tories when Lord Ashcroft polls showing a majority of 142 ?
A long time ago I used to do Maths questions - for Exams etc. The angst is that the analysis offered by his grace seems to be essentially correct but the reality will always be that there might be some 1=2 errors in the working which we haven't noticed. Lord Ashcroft also has a track record of not getting these things right.
No campaign is ever perfect and I don't mean that as an understatement. They can veer off in the weirdest directions for little logical reason. For instance the social services policy, vilified a week ago is now seen to have some merit. BUT it was at Green Paper level and that was never / could never be explained.
I don't like the one person campaign myself - just reinforces the Spitting Image thing about Mrs T and the vegetables - at least the vegetables had names !
There is obviously a very wide margin for the possible majority and I think 136 is about the maximum reasonable expectation. But for me the key is 90 because that is where I think Westmorland swings Tory.
The latest Ashcroft model has Tory/LD/Lab shares for Richmond Park as 50%/32%/17%.
This one prediction alone destroys the credibility of his model. He is clearly ignoring the tactical vote effect.
Habitual tactical voter here. (I usually follow it up with tactical sulking as it never works.) There isn't much incentive for tactical voting for Lib Dems this time round. There is no realistic prospect of denying the Conservatives a majority. That being so, the most effective way to try and limit the damage is to swing behind the main opposition in the hope that even if they don't have the seats at least they'll have a big enough popular vote to be taken seriously. I think the Lib Dems might do well in a handful of seats like Lewes where they just missed last time, but overall I suspect they'll struggle.
If the Tories are on 50% in Richmond then the LDs are of course doomed, but it discredits Ashcroft to be putting Labour on 17%. Last time Labour got fewer votes than they had members. Despite being a GE, Labour isn't going to shoot up to 17% - they only got 12% there in Blair's landslide of 1997.
All a flights from Heathrow and Gatwick cancelled for today. Poor old holidaymakers
wannacry !
Was it? Their entire IT department should be fired if it was, given the huge amount of coverage that got.
This wouldn't have happened with pen and paper.
No, but I wonder how much more expensive things would be with the enormous number of extra staff they would need to handle all the reservations and flight movements on paper.
Guru Murphy's setting up of Fallon for the ambush was despicable. No wonder journalists are held in such low regard.
Such truths are only treason when they come from Labour mouths, not Boris or DD:
"The decision to go to war was part of a cascade of mistakes that resulted in the careless destruction of a nation, our complicity in the use of torture, our ceding of the moral high ground, and an increased risk of terrorism at home."
I was speaking to a Coptic friend of mine about this just this morning.
She tells me that there has long been a problem of persecution of Copts, but this sort of violence has got a lot worse since Libya became a failed state. It is from there and the Gaza strip that militants hideout, and cross the border to murder, with Egyptian Islamists collaborating.
The Military coup against the Islamist government in 2013 was supported by several foreign nations, but also the Coptic community there.
Daesh want to kill all christians and atheists.
There is nothing to negotiate. In their heads this is a religious war to the end.
Or dhimmify us. No one denies that.
The debate though is over how we oppose them. Does adding to the tally of failed states in the region help? does bombing Assad and Isolating Iran help or hinder Daesh?
How can we best undermine the Daesh, and stop their soft support in the wider muslim community?
Our disagreement is not over objectives (we both want to end their barbarity) it is about methods. It is fairly difficult to claim the War on Terror a success. Perhaps like the also failing War on Drugs, it requires a rethink.
I didn't vote for Blair and won't be voting for May. I was however very cheerful as the sun came up in 1997, looking forward to the ethical foreign policy and voting system reform that Labour had promised us.
The question of May's character is central, IMO, and more important that the minutiae of how to fund social care. The Tories spent three weeks telling us we needed a strong and stable leader, and then another week destroying their own pitch.
I do seriously wonder why someone who hates campaigning, interviews and retail politics, as May appears to do, called an early election. Bit masochistic.
I suppose she reckoned she would have to fight one, and is self aware enough to know that 2017 looked a whole lot easier than 2020?
2017 is definitely a hell of a better option. The economy will be shit by 2020. In fact, things are getting worse already.
Wages below inflation. So living standards already falling. Q1 GDP growth of 0.3% revised downwards to 0.2%
Guru Murphy's setting up of Fallon for the ambush was despicable. No wonder journalists are held in such low regard.
Such truths are only treason when they come from Labour mouths, not Boris or DD:
"The decision to go to war was part of a cascade of mistakes that resulted in the careless destruction of a nation, our complicity in the use of torture, our ceding of the moral high ground, and an increased risk of terrorism at home."
It's bullshit journalism. I'm sure we could come up with a quote from an Austrian corporal that you''d agree with or statement from Nelson Mandela that you'd condemn. Rolly-polly Guru Murphy's gotcha moment was empty and fake,
Do you disagree with David Davis on how the Iraq war increased the risk of terrorism here? It is his own words and on his own blog so unlikely to be quoted out of context!
Of course Blair's Iraq fiasco increased the risk of terrorism in the UK and elsewhere. I was objecting to Guru Murphy's professional ethics. He set up Fallon in a dishonest fashion.
Guru Murphy's setting up of Fallon for the ambush was despicable. No wonder journalists are held in such low regard.
Such truths are only treason when they come from Labour mouths, not Boris or DD:
"The decision to go to war was part of a cascade of mistakes that resulted in the careless destruction of a nation, our complicity in the use of torture, our ceding of the moral high ground, and an increased risk of terrorism at home."
It's bullshit journalism. I'm sure we could come up with a quote from an Austrian corporal that you''d agree with or statement from Nelson Mandela that you'd condemn. Rolly-polly Guru Murphy's gotcha moment was empty and fake,
Do you disagree with David Davis on how the Iraq war increased the risk of terrorism here? It is his own words and on his own blog so unlikely to be quoted out of context!
Of course Blair's Iraq fiasco increased the risk of terrorism in the UK and elsewhere. I was objecting to Guru Murphy's professional ethics. He set up Fallon in a dishonest fashion.
It was completely fair and showed Fallon to be a numpty!
Nonetheless it is refreshing to see that you agree with Jezza on this.
You know what would be really nice? If one of the billionaires in the UK built a load of free hospitals/care homes for the elderly. Aren't there a load of big old country manors that could be put to better use?
Actually you have half a point there. Our billionaires are far "tighter" than billionaires say in the States who are far more philanthropic.
You could move the inverted commas from "tighter" and put them around "our". Most London-resident billionaires worth more than £5bn are foreigners. Are there any who aren't, now that Gerald Grosvenor has died, other than the Monaco-domiciled Reuben brothers?
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Hanging is too good for Nick Timothy quite honestly.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
That decision will go down as the single most devastating policy blunder in electoral history - whatever the result turns out to be, it's knocked perhaps 50 seats off the Conservative total.
Mr. Sandpit, maybe. If Bottas passes Vettel off the line or something similar happens due to bad luck, they won't have the chance. It would be interesting if, after the pit stops, they were 1-2.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Hanging is too good for Nick Timothy quite honestly.
I think he is doing a very good job. No one can complain that he is hiding the face of the Nasty Party.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Hanging is too good for Nick Timothy quite honestly.
Yup, he's ruined far too many people's betting portfolios.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Hanging is too good for Nick Timothy quite honestly.
Yup, he's ruined far too many people's betting portfolios.
Tbf, and as I said at the time, betting on ever higher Tory performance when they were already at 50% in the polls was clearly dumb. The Tories were a screaming sell two weeks back; Mr Timothy simply helped things along.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.
Guru Murphy's setting up of Fallon for the ambush was despicable. No wonder journalists are held in such low regard.
Such truths are only treason when they come from Labour mouths, not Boris or DD:
"The decision to go to war was part of a cascade of mistakes that resulted in the careless destruction of a nation, our complicity in the use of torture, our ceding of the moral high ground, and an increased risk of terrorism at home."
It's bullshit journalism. I'm sure we could come up with a quote from an Austrian corporal that you''d agree with or statement from Nelson Mandela that you'd condemn. Rolly-polly Guru Murphy's gotcha moment was empty and fake,
Do you disagree with David Davis on how the Iraq war increased the risk of terrorism here? It is his own words and on his own blog so unlikely to be quoted out of context!
Of course Blair's Iraq fiasco increased the risk of terrorism in the UK and elsewhere. I was objecting to Guru Murphy's professional ethics. He set up Fallon in a dishonest fashion.
It was completely fair and showed Fallon to be a numpty!
Nonetheless it is refreshing to see that you agree with Jezza on this.
You bet.and Guru Murthy's as fair and balanced as the day is long.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.
Where is Mr Fox? I have been following the campaign very closely, but have heard or seen nothing of him since the snap election was announced.
On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?
Yes, which is why the decision of Mrs May to try and 'clarify' things - rather than defend the policy - is IMO wrong. Any cap of less than about £250k costs the government a fortune.
Michael Portillo got this right on This Week. It's about inheritance and the protection of it by the wealthy, not about care.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
Hanging is too good for Nick Timothy quite honestly.
Yup, he's ruined far too many people's betting portfolios.
Tbf, and as I said at the time, betting on ever higher Tory performance when they were already at 50% in the polls was clearly dumb. The Tories were a screaming sell two weeks back; Mr Timothy simply helped things along.
I bought the Tories when they were 50% in the polls.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.
Where is Mr Fox? I have been following the campaign very closely, but have heard or seen nothing of him since the snap election was announced.
He was out campaigning with Aaron the week before last.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
That decision will go down as the single most devastating policy blunder in electoral history - whatever the result turns out to be, it's knocked perhaps 50 seats off the Conservative total.
Where exactly are these seats that the tories are going to lose out on because of this dementia tax issue? Wealthy tory pensioners: nowhere to go. Investment bankers: nowhere to go. PB tories/ frothers: nowhere to go.
Some may abstain, but so what, they are all going to be disproportionately in safe tory seats anyway.
And, the flipside is, where are Labour going to win ? Swindon? Dagenham? Nuneaton? No chance. They are just inspiring people in places where they are either going to win handsomely anyway, or have no hope of winning. So they will get a decent share of the popular vote, but disproportionately few seats.
What we will get is a massive tory majority, disproportionate to their share of the vote, and following a wholly underwhelming campaign. Thats my most realistic assessment of the situation.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.
Where is Mr Fox? I have been following the campaign very closely, but have heard or seen nothing of him since the snap election was announced.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.
Where is Mr Fox? I have been following the campaign very closely, but have heard or seen nothing of him since the snap election was announced.
He is not the only Tory front bencher either hiding or being hidden from view! How much of this is voluntary, and how much is emulating the Great Leader in disappearing from the limelight we do not yet know.
May's first public election commitment - before the manifesto was even launched - was to maintain the 0.7% spend on foreign aid. A commitment that doesn't win over a single left-wing voter but alienates right-wing ones.
She needs a populist "wow" moment - announce a direct transfer of 10 billion from foreign aid to literally anything else that's necessary and popular, e.g. social care, the NHS, the police.
The left will froth, the right will cheer, middle England will secretly love the freebie. It would completely change the dynamic of the narrative. Now it's the Tories with a big giveaway to the British people, now it's May who's imaginative and can think on the hoof. Let Corbyn argue for borrowing to fund the rest of the world instead of our services.
Will we get it? No sodding chance.
p.s. CCHQ - if you're reading this, just fucking do it - or go back to your constituencies and prepare for unemployment!
How about sack theresa may and make boris or michael gove leader at least they supported leave and want closed borders.
I thought Boris was pro Immigration , well he was when London Mayor. Thought he supported an amnesty on illegal immigrants ?
Of course Boris is a liberal on immigration. Takes after his great grandfather, Ali Kemal.
And a Muslim to boot. Well, Obama can be then so can Boris.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.
Where is Mr Fox? I have been following the campaign very closely, but have heard or seen nothing of him since the snap election was announced.
This is another good essay by Mr. Meeks. With her manifesto, in spite of her many declarations for every-man, she emphasizes that she is a Tory to her toes. U-turn or no. That puts lots of us off, big-time. There are many Labour MPs out there who are not Corbyn-ites and they may well garner votes for their own worth, and therefore nominally for Labour. Personally, I'll never forgive Corbyn for being a limp noodle for Remaining. But I can see supporting a local civilised Mp.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
That decision will go down as the single most devastating policy blunder in electoral history - whatever the result turns out to be, it's knocked perhaps 50 seats off the Conservative total.
Where exactly are these seats that the tories are going to lose out on because of this dementia tax issue? Wealthy tory pensioners: nowhere to go. Investment bankers: nowhere to go. PB tories/ frothers: nowhere to go.
Some may abstain, but so what, they are all going to be disproportionately in safe tory seats anyway.
And, the flipside is, where are Labour going to win ? Swindon? Dagenham? Nuneaton? No chance. They are just inspiring people in places where they are either going to win handsomely anyway, or have no hope of winning. So they will get a decent share of the popular vote, but disproportionately few seats.
What we will get is a massive tory majority, disproportionate to their share of the vote, and following a wholly underwhelming campaign. Thats my most realistic assessment of the situation.
Agree with most of this....but how depressing! We are going into Brexit with a leader who has proved herself to be malleable, unable to plan strategically, and not particularly popular (even with people who will vote for her). The quality of the opposition will get her over the line.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.
Where is Mr Fox? I have been following the campaign very closely, but have heard or seen nothing of him since the snap election was announced.
He is not the only Tory front bencher either hiding or being hidden from view! How much of this is voluntary, and how much is emulating the Great Leader in disappearing from the limelight we do not yet know.
True. I saw the amusing Daily Politics sketch with their reporter travelling round shouting "where is Andrea Leadsome?". I just assumed she was off taking a holiday with Diane.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.
Where is Mr Fox? I have been following the campaign very closely, but have heard or seen nothing of him since the snap election was announced.
He is not the only Tory front bencher either hiding or being hidden from view! How much of this is voluntary, and how much is emulating the Great Leader in disappearing from the limelight we do not yet know.
I suspect this was the initial plan: the political mortals would disappear allowing us all to bask in Therea's uncontaminated light.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
That decision will go down as the single most devastating policy blunder in electoral history - whatever the result turns out to be, it's knocked perhaps 50 seats off the Conservative total.
Where exactly are these seats that the tories are going to lose out on because of this dementia tax issue? Wealthy tory pensioners: nowhere to go. Investment bankers: nowhere to go. PB tories/ frothers: nowhere to go.
Some may abstain, but so what, they are all going to be disproportionately in safe tory seats anyway.
And, the flipside is, where are Labour going to win ? Swindon? Dagenham? Nuneaton? No chance. They are just inspiring people in places where they are either going to win handsomely anyway, or have no hope of winning. So they will get a decent share of the popular vote, but disproportionately few seats.
What we will get is a massive tory majority, disproportionate to their share of the vote, and following a wholly underwhelming campaign. Thats my most realistic assessment of the situation.
Like you I am still betting on a Tory majority.
But it isn't about care. It's about not being strong and stable.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
That decision will go down as the single most devastating policy blunder in electoral history - whatever the result turns out to be, it's knocked perhaps 50 seats off the Conservative total.
Where exactly are these seats that the tories are going to lose out on because of this dementia tax issue? Wealthy tory pensioners: nowhere to go. Investment bankers: nowhere to go. PB tories/ frothers: nowhere to go.
Some may abstain, but so what, they are all going to be disproportionately in safe tory seats anyway.
And, the flipside is, where are Labour going to win ? Swindon? Dagenham? Nuneaton? No chance. They are just inspiring people in places where they are either going to win handsomely anyway, or have no hope of winning. So they will get a decent share of the popular vote, but disproportionately few seats.
What we will get is a massive tory majority, disproportionate to their share of the vote, and following a wholly underwhelming campaign. Thats my most realistic assessment of the situation.
May I commend the LibDems to socially conservative financially sane people?
It was Norman Lamb who introduced the cap on social care.
Leavers can rest assured that they can vote for Brexit a second time.
I hope to be roadtesting this message in Bosworth tommorow.
The Tory election campaign is hard to fathom. At what point did they replace Lynton Crosby with Devon Loch? Everything before the manifesto launch was play it safe, defend the substantial lead and let Labour make unforced errors. Since the manifesto all the nagging doubts about May's weak points have faced their first proper scrutiny.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
It was the fault of Nick Timothy and his social care change addition to the manifesto.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
His mistake however was more with the "how" than the "what". The Tories could have done the necessary groundwork, got people on board, positioned the proposal as part of the hard decisions any government needs to make, and part of delivering greater inter-generational fairness, and then stuck to it.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.
Brexit with the inflexible and socially awkward Theresa in charge and assisted by her 3 stooges doesnt look very rosy.
Where is Mr Fox? I have been following the campaign very closely, but have heard or seen nothing of him since the snap election was announced.
I thought fox-hunting was illegal!
Only with dogs. I speak as an interested party!
Looking upthread I see it's apparently OK to use eagles.
Comments
I advised the good lady that the Commons only has 650 MP's ....
Oh boy, what a mistake ....
Plus YouGov presumably?
Elderly homeowners with significant wealth (housing or otherwise) should pay for their own care
The general tax system should subsidise the rest
Any 'The Lady's Not for Turning' will have us Remainers and her ex- EU partners falling about.
#ToysOutOfThePram
"The decision to go to war was part of a cascade of mistakes that resulted in the careless destruction of a nation, our complicity in the use of torture, our ceding of the moral high ground, and an increased risk of terrorism at home."
David Davis on his own blog on the Iraq war:
http://www.daviddavismp.com/david-davis-comments-on-the-publication-of-the-chilcot-report-into-the-iraq-war/
Grid is rather good, but I do think the race may be a horrendous procession. However, if it's a horrendous procession with a safety car, I'll happily accept that. Especially if Raikkonen wins.
anyone who hated blair but loves may is a partisan hypocrite.
That Corbyn attack video - surely there is no way back from "I have opposed all anti-terror legislation since 1983"? Saying the IRA have a point or hamas have a point, or even both, are respectable positions to take, but opposing anti-terror legislation for the sake of it? Does anyone know the context in which he said it?
My favourite is Tynemouth though (and St James!)
Interesting thread here on May's lack of ability FWIW.
https://twitter.com/mrichardsonlaw/status/868434563986489344
Good afternoon, everyone.
The question of May's character is central, IMO, and more important that the minutiae of how to fund social care. The Tories spent three weeks telling us we needed a strong and stable leader, and then another week destroying their own pitch.
She tells me that there has long been a problem of persecution of Copts, but this sort of violence has got a lot worse since Libya became a failed state. It is from there and the Gaza strip that militants hideout, and cross the border to murder, with Egyptian Islamists collaborating.
The Military coup against the Islamist government in 2013 was supported by several foreign nations, but also the Coptic community there.
As a political watcher, Corbyn gave the standard responses he's always given, but I think his comments about terrorists in the past will now reach a new and bigger audience. His comment about having 'Never met the IRA' will probably lead the hostile Sundays, with a bunch of examples of when he did just that. I wish Neil had spent more time on the manifesto though, we all know Corbyn's numbers just don't add up, and he obviously doesn't think that government bonds count as borrowing - WTF on that last point.
Oh, and having been pleased not to be the NHS IT guy a couple of weeks ago, I'm pleased not to be the BA IT guy today.
I've hedged the tiny sums I had on Raikkonen. Still waiting for a couple of markets to go up, though.
I wonder if Nick Timothy has been allowed off the naughty step yet.
Poor old holidaymakers
But there was nothing unfair about it - Fallon could have said... Those comments are different for some reason. If he'd really been paying attention he might have heard that it doesn't really sound like Corbynite language...
Leavers and Corbynites are two cheeks of the same arse.
There is nothing to negotiate. In their heads this is a religious war to the end.
When I worked for a software company in the hospitality industry we had a policy of never doing upgrades on Fridays - because everyone wanted the weekend off and it was the busiest time for the customers.
If BA have done a software upgrade on a Friday night of a BH weekend, and it's ducked things up, then the CIO (or whoever was the most senior person to sign off the upgrade) deserves a P45 on Monday Tuesday morning. He's safer in his job if it's a cyber attack.
The dementia tax and its u-turn mid-campaign could prove as damaging as Gordon Brown 'bottling' an early election. Having gone to the country to 'strengthen her hand' anything but a significant increase of seats will be a humiliating loss of credibility abroad as well as at home. Theresa May will still probably win, but is making such heavy work of it and that could make her life internally within her party harder not easier - especially when the inevitable Brexit disappointments or turbulence materialise.
What do the Tories have in the locker? Can they find another gear? The Sunday papers tomorrow are the time we'll surely find out.
I've not bet on this race at all, apart from the 'no SC' bet. FYI the F2 sprint race of 30 laps finished without as much as a VSC.
Sir Lynton believes in clearly all the barnacles off the boat.
Nick TImothy believes in adding a Nimitz class sized barnacles to the boat.
The debate though is over how we oppose them. Does adding to the tally of failed states in the region help? does bombing Assad and Isolating Iran help or hinder Daesh?
How can we best undermine the Daesh, and stop their soft support in the wider muslim community?
Our disagreement is not over objectives (we both want to end their barbarity) it is about methods. It is fairly difficult to claim the War on Terror a success. Perhaps like the also failing War on Drugs, it requires a rethink.
Wages below inflation. So living standards already falling. Q1 GDP growth of 0.3% revised downwards to 0.2%
Nonetheless it is refreshing to see that you agree with Jezza on this.
Not preparing the ground, not getting people on board, not explaining it, and not costing it...and then as soon as people started to complain, changing it, but not abandoning it, has simply trashed their central pitch of offering surefooted and steadfast leadership as we head towards the Brexit cliffedge.
After today's mass debate I suspect the polls this evening will bring Conservatives a measure of relief.
Thought I would channel my inner Eagles.
Michael Portillo got this right on This Week. It's about inheritance and the protection of it by the wealthy, not about care.
And still managed to make a profit.
Wealthy tory pensioners: nowhere to go.
Investment bankers: nowhere to go.
PB tories/ frothers: nowhere to go.
Some may abstain, but so what, they are all going to be disproportionately in safe tory seats anyway.
And, the flipside is, where are Labour going to win ? Swindon? Dagenham? Nuneaton? No chance. They are just inspiring people in places where they are either going to win handsomely anyway, or have no hope of winning. So they will get a decent share of the popular vote, but disproportionately few seats.
What we will get is a massive tory majority, disproportionate to their share of the vote, and following a wholly underwhelming campaign.
Thats my most realistic assessment of the situation.
With her manifesto, in spite of her many declarations for every-man, she emphasizes that she is a Tory to her toes. U-turn or no.
That puts lots of us off, big-time.
There are many Labour MPs out there who are not Corbyn-ites and they may well garner votes for their own worth, and therefore nominally for Labour.
Personally, I'll never forgive Corbyn for being a limp noodle for Remaining. But I can see supporting a local civilised Mp.
But it isn't about care. It's about not being strong and stable.
It was Norman Lamb who introduced the cap on social care.
Leavers can rest assured that they can vote for Brexit a second time.
I hope to be roadtesting this message in Bosworth tommorow.
Normally they send it two hours before.
This might be a humdinger of a poll.