I am not sure the LibDem policy offers anything at all to Leavers or indeed to UK citizens as a whole.
Actually re Brexit. I have no real idea what the LibDems were thinking other than 'fanatical remainers please vote for us' which admittedly has worked in some by-elections but crashed and burned in the locals. At least in the West Country they have p*ssed on their chips for decades to come as a result.
As far as I understand it (I asked one of my former party colleagues and he thrashed around like an anoxic fish to the extent that I wished to throw him back) the vote would be between a first dreadful option of begging to come back into the EU under whatever conditions they wished, and the second dreadful option of whatever deal they would surely offer us if that was the first option.
In what way did the LDs crash and burn in the locals esp in the West Country Dorset vote share up 6.5% Glos vote share up 7.1% Somerset vote share up 4.8% Devon vote share up 5.3% Cornwall vote share up 7.5% Wiltshire vote share up 6.3%
The way in which they were expecting to gain hatfuls of seats in Cornwall, Devon and Somerset at least and failed to do so. Even they have acknowledged immense disappointment. Now I get the impression they are just going through the motions and would be thrilled to win even a single seat.
The LibDems trouble with increasing their vote share is that their main opponent is also increasing their share (even more so). If the Tories vote share is now decreasing that may be to their advantage.
ComRes, YouGov, Survation, possibly ICM and others...
#MegaPollingSaturday
Great. It's going to be absurd if the last 3 days of panic was due entirely to having that Yougov poll and nothing else.
It's more down to a trend of a declining Conservative lead than it is a single poll. YouGov was just the lowest poll lead we've seen for the Conservatives.
I thought the advice was look at the poll scores and where they are and the lead not so much.
If the Tories are still on mid 40s - well that's about as good as you could hope for I'd had have thought.
As per the Speccie article, 200 seat majority was about as good as the Conservatives for hoping for in Week One. It's clear expectations are, well, declining somewhat.
Mark Senior predicted this. I am aware that this is a subset.
Told you so LOL
Would that mean some Glasgow seats may come into play ?
That has been my hunch. The SLAB to SNP shift was huge in 2015. It wouldn't require a lot of unwinding. I think Glasgow SW is probably the most unionist seat isn't it?
An outsider, the person you vote for when you want to give the establishment a kicking.
Those voting purely on the leader perhaps, so it depends in part on how sophisticated an outsider you are. Many outsiders don't want Keir Starmer i/c Brexit. That would suit the establishment nicely even if Corbyn wouldn't.
ComRes, YouGov, Survation, possibly ICM and others...
#MegaPollingSaturday
Great. It's going to be absurd if the last 3 days of panic was due entirely to having that Yougov poll and nothing else.
It's more down to a trend of a declining Conservative lead than it is a single poll. YouGov was just the lowest poll lead we've seen for the Conservatives.
I thought the advice was look at the poll scores and where they are and the lead not so much.
If the Tories are still on mid 40s - well that's about as good as you could hope for I'd had have thought.
As per the Speccie article, 200 seat majority was about as good as the Conservatives for hoping for in Week One. It's clear expectations are, well, declining somewhat.
At the start of this campaign I said on here I'd be happy with 50 to 60 maj.
Opinium 45 35 7 5 Leader ratings 45 31 Fieldwork Tues and weds Baxtered majority of 84 (no adjustment for scotland) and Tim Farron leads a party of him only.
How does Baxter calculate the Lib Dem percentage?
Back in 2005, he used to calculate the Con and Lab percentages, and then give whatever was left over to the Lib Dems, if I remember correctly. This was widely discredited.
Opinium 45 35 7 5 Leader ratings 45 31 Fieldwork Tues and weds Baxtered majority of 84 (no adjustment for scotland) and Tim Farron leads a party of him only.
How does Baxter calculate the Lib Dem percentage?
Back in 2005, he used to calculate the Con and Lab percentages, and then give whatever was left over to the Lib Dems, if I remember correctly. This was widely discredited.
Mark Senior predicted this. I am aware that this is a subset.
Told you so LOL
Would that mean some Glasgow seats may come into play ?
That has been my hunch. The SLAB to SNP shift was huge in 2015. It wouldn't require a lot of unwinding. I think Glasgow SW is probably the most unionist seat isn't it?
That's only a 6 point changer isn't it?
2015 - SNP 50 Lab 24 diff 26 2017 - SNP 46 Lab 26 diff 20
ComRes, YouGov, Survation, possibly ICM and others...
#MegaPollingSaturday
Great. It's going to be absurd if the last 3 days of panic was due entirely to having that Yougov poll and nothing else.
It's more down to a trend of a declining Conservative lead than it is a single poll. YouGov was just the lowest poll lead we've seen for the Conservatives.
I thought the advice was look at the poll scores and where they are and the lead not so much.
If the Tories are still on mid 40s - well that's about as good as you could hope for I'd had have thought.
As per the Speccie article, 200 seat majority was about as good as the Conservatives for hoping for in Week One. It's clear expectations are, well, declining somewhat.
At the start of this campaign I said on here I'd be happy with 50 to 60 maj.
Same here - big enough to get stuff done, small enough to keep them on their toes & remind them of their own political mortality.
A 200 seat majority would be bad news - fat dumb happy and complacent - when the crash came it would be all the harder......
Mark Senior predicted this. I am aware that this is a subset.
Told you so LOL
Would that mean some Glasgow seats may come into play ?
That has been my hunch. The SLAB to SNP shift was huge in 2015. It wouldn't require a lot of unwinding. I think Glasgow SW is probably the most unionist seat isn't it?
That's only a 6 point changer isn't it?
2015 - SNP 50 Lab 24 diff 26 2017 - SNP 46 Lab 26 diff 20
A lot depends on how even it is. the swing may well be bigger in more Unionist seats.
Maybe not enough, but which is your view on the most Unionist Glasgow seat?
Mark Senior predicted this. I am aware that this is a subset.
Told you so LOL
Would that mean some Glasgow seats may come into play ?
That has been my hunch. The SLAB to SNP shift was huge in 2015. It wouldn't require a lot of unwinding. I think Glasgow SW is probably the most unionist seat isn't it?
That's only a 6 point changer isn't it?
2015 - SNP 50 Lab 24 diff 26 2017 - SNP 46 Lab 26 diff 20
I sincerely hope Scottish Labour are focussing solely on East Lothian. Dugdale definitely mentioned it when I listedned to her.
Interesting, as others have noted, that the Con share hasn't actually changed very much, it's Lab that's surging. False dawn, or the campaigning power of promising free stuff for everyone? Was Miliband's mistake denying rather than embracing his free owl policy?
Seems to be Labour gaining the 18-24s and non voters rather than tories falling apart. If i were labour I'd be worried about whether that holds come election day..
It's probably way too early for the Tories to start relaxing on the back of this evening's Omnium poll. Earlier this week I saw that well known Labourite, Greg Dyke, arguing on Sky News for a possible postponement of the GE, although stating there were arguments both ways. One of the points he raised was that the murderous outrage in Manchester would inevitably favour the Government in power and seen to be taking action, in this instance the Tories. I suspect he is probably right, although such an effect by its nature is likely to be very temporary and may well reverse before polling day in 12 days' time. If such an effect existed to the extent of say a 2% swing from Labour to the Tories, then tonight's 10% lead would be reduced to 6%, i.e. much in line with the other most recent polls.
It's probably way too early for the Tories to start relaxing on the back of this evening's Omnium poll. Earlier this week I saw that well known Labourite, Greg Dyke, arguing on Sky News for a possible postponement of the GE, although stating there were arguments both ways. One of the points he raised was that the murderous outrage in Manchester would inevitably favour the Government in power and seen to be taking action, in this instance the Tories. I suspect he is probably right, although such an effect by its nature is likely to be very temporary and may well reverse before polling day in 12 days' time. If such an effect existed to the extent of say a 2% swing from Labour to the Tories, then tonight's 10% lead would be reduced to 6%, i.e. much in line with the other most recent polls.
Stop the world I want to have an election.
What would he suggest if there's another attack on something else which might affect an election when the postponed election then takes place ? Another postponement perhaps ?
It would certainly be a way for an unpopular and unscrupulous government to remain in power.
Interesting, as others have noted, that the Con share hasn't actually changed very much, it's Lab that's surging. False dawn, or the campaigning power of promising free stuff for everyone? Was Miliband's mistake denying rather than embracing his free owl policy?
Alarmingly perhaps for Theresa May, among C1s, C2s and DEs more think Jeremy Corbyn and Labour than think the Conservatives have the best policies.
May is in for a hell of time after June 9th. Only gets worse from there on....
The ComRes makrs clear the Tories are winning largely because of Corbyn. May has made big promises about Brexit and she will be judged on whether she delivers them. If I were a Tory that would give me plenty of food for thought - especially if Labour does poll in the low to mid 30s.
Don`t you mean 425 Conservative MPs never were realistic?
I don't think it's true.
If I'd been charged with putting together the Conservative manifesto I'd have called it "Implementing Brexit", explained that Brexit was going to be the main business of government for the coming Parliament (which has the merit of being true) and the rest would be care and maintenance only this time round (plus lots of money for the NHS). No need to have distracting policies.
The voters Theresa May wanted weren't thinking about dementia till she told them to.
Mr. Richard, he's dumb as a post. It was obviously the sort of policy that needs to be made bulletproof, but it was more like charging into battle with a shield made of cheese.
Mr. Matt, as I said before, a May versus Miliband contest would be interesting. And probably going quite differently.
So far, so good, but Theresa May and the Tories must sharpen up their act. Should also focus on the economy in addition to all the security related controversies. I hope Lyndon Crosby has assumed total control of the campaign, as he did in 2015, and the wretched Timothy despatched to win Bootle. It is not inconceivable that by polling day, the lead will be back to the mid teens....
Tory vote share does seem to be within the 42% to 46% range. Labour I think were always going to increase vote share as expectations so low (and a populist giveaway manifesto)
From the Labour party point of view the polls so far still indicate an upward trajectory in terms of vote share.It was always going to be a big ask to topple a 1-16 favourite.There remains encouragement that the Supreme Leader's vote share is weak and wobbly.She really is prone to anxiety and potential further panic attacks as evidenced by the Dementia Tax and that attack on the self-employed and seems likely to me to be increasingly seen as less strong and stable and more weak and wobbly. Labour should focus on its strengths as identified in Com Res as better able to protect old people in targetted messaging rather than get sidetracked in throwing back the bucket loads of horse manure the evil thieving Tories will throw at it. There needs to be a higher focus on Labour education policy.Com Res shows both Labour and the Tories are level-pegging.With school funding being a massive issue,Labour should be doing much better and needs to sell its education policies better.Angela Rayner has a big job on.
Probably a Tory majority of about 100, with Labour piling up votes in safe seats.
You mean like the Tories piling up votes in the East of England and not gaining a single seat.
I'm afraid Lamb looks very much for the chop based on these numbers.
Dementia tax and mental health are ideal policies for him. I think he is safe.
Unfortunately for Norman Lamb, and fortunately for Kate Hoey politics doesn't quite work like that. Vauxhall still the biggest odds on rick of the election tbh.
Sporting Index have again suspended their GE spread markets, I doubt they'll re-open until sometime tomorrow morning if you're lucky .... quelle surprise! The funny thing is that last time around in 2015, it was Spreadex who were were always running scared and closing their markets and Sporting who usually stayed open ..... a complete reversal - I wonder if there has been a swap in their respective personnel?
For what it's worth, thus far there has been little movement with the current spreads being as follows:
The 'man of principle' suddenly becomes a squirming liar under forensic cross examination. That will harm Corbyn.
Yep, it's not the IRA talks that is the big problem it is now the fibbing about it.
Getting a politician to squirm is what interviewers live for, they got May on the care costs and now they have a new target.
I am not sure the Tories can get far by calling Corbyn a liar when everyone now nows that Theresa may has a compulsive aversion to telling truth as revealed by her decision to call the election!
Comments
If the Tories vote share is now decreasing that may be to their advantage.
Con 53%
Lab 30%
Or perhaps we can all accept that placing too much emphasis on small sub-samples isn't a wise idea.
Back in 2005, he used to calculate the Con and Lab percentages, and then give whatever was left over to the Lib Dems, if I remember correctly. This was widely discredited.
Has he got any better at it now?
I canvassed for the first time in Sundon Park today, and thought the response was pretty good.
2nd3rd is the new 1st !The "Dementia Tax" is rumoured to be being dropped from the manifesto with a "We listened to you, we'll go back to the consultation" reason.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/monaco-pre-race-2017.html
I suspect the race will not match the excitement of qualifying, it must be said.
Con 43%
Lab 43%
So that would be a 11.5% swing from Labour to the Conservatives in Wales.
Now lets see who has ramped a sub-sample swing in Scotland but has nothing to say about a sub-sample swing in Wales.
2015 - SNP 50 Lab 24 diff 26
2017 - SNP 46 Lab 26 diff 20
As in, it's the last company that hasn't released a poll since the manifestos
Lab mid 35s.
Is that where overall?
A 200 seat majority would be bad news - fat dumb happy and complacent - when the crash came it would be all the harder......
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/868512602976071680
Maybe not enough, but which is your view on the most Unionist Glasgow seat?
Earlier this week I saw that well known Labourite, Greg Dyke, arguing on Sky News for a possible postponement of the GE, although stating there were arguments both ways.
One of the points he raised was that the murderous outrage in Manchester would inevitably favour the Government in power and seen to be taking action, in this instance the Tories.
I suspect he is probably right, although such an effect by its nature is likely to be very temporary and may well reverse before polling day in 12 days' time.
If such an effect existed to the extent of say a 2% swing from Labour to the Tories, then tonight's 10% lead would be reduced to 6%, i.e. much in line with the other most recent polls.
By the way you need to add the SurveyMonkey poll to your spreadsheet.
Nick Timothy = Master Strategist.
Alarmingly perhaps for Theresa May, among C1s, C2s and DEs more think Jeremy Corbyn and Labour than think the Conservatives have the best policies.
What would he suggest if there's another attack on something else which might affect an election when the postponed election then takes place ? Another postponement perhaps ?
It would certainly be a way for an unpopular and unscrupulous government to remain in power.
BTW - any idea of the fieldwork dates for ComRes?
It may well be in such a polarised election that both sides are less efficient in their vote, with few close calls either way.
On the road up a few diamonds and some Tory boards. & lots of support for Blomfeld seemingly in Central.
Nick Timothy looks like he's a person who is sure of many things.
including ComRes and Opinium as well:
Con 44.0
Lab 35.4
LD 8.0
UKIP 4.6
average Kantar/YG/SurveyMonkey/ComRes/Opinium Tory lead = 8.6%
If I'd been charged with putting together the Conservative manifesto I'd have called it "Implementing Brexit", explained that Brexit was going to be the main business of government for the coming Parliament (which has the merit of being true) and the rest would be care and maintenance only this time round (plus lots of money for the NHS). No need to have distracting policies.
The voters Theresa May wanted weren't thinking about dementia till she told them to.
Less is more.
When DKs are reallocated by 'best PM' ratings, and not the party voters ID with most, tonight's @ComRes Tory lead widens to 15 pts
Mr. Matt, as I said before, a May versus Miliband contest would be interesting. And probably going quite differently.
I would include it but leave SNP/GRN figures blank.
But think of all the increase in Labour votes in the East of England and they will gain nothing and possibly lose Luton South and Cambridge.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/868508385121107973
NEW THREAD
Labour should focus on its strengths as identified in Com Res as better able to protect old people in targetted messaging rather than get sidetracked in throwing back the bucket loads of horse manure the evil thieving Tories will throw at it.
There needs to be a higher focus on Labour education policy.Com Res shows both Labour and the Tories are level-pegging.With school funding being a massive issue,Labour should be doing much better and needs to sell its education policies better.Angela Rayner has a big job on.
Vauxhall still the biggest odds on rick of the election tbh.
I'm not sure improved poll ratings for the LD's - and renewed national media focus on Farron's campaign/manifesto would actually help him, tbh.
North Norfolk shouldn't be a toss up, but it probably is.
The funny thing is that last time around in 2015, it was Spreadex who were were always running scared and closing their markets and Sporting who usually stayed open ..... a complete reversal - I wonder if there has been a swap in their respective personnel?
For what it's worth, thus far there has been little movement with the current spreads being as follows:
Spreadex
Con .......... 375 - 381
Lab ........... 182 - 188
LibDem ....... 14 - 17
IG
Con .......... 378 - 384
Lab ........... 178 - 183
LibDems ....12.5 - 15