politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With postal voting just starting CON maintains emphatic lead
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If, amazingly, Corbyn does well and then walks ofg with his head held high showing that a manifesto of left wing populism is sellable to the British public and a centre-leftist takes over then he might possibly kill Blairism stone dead and setup Labour for election victory in 4-5 years after Brexit pain is taken by the ToriesHarris_Tweed said:kle4 said:
Boom, called it 4 weeks ago.Scott_P said:
Still a bit strange to me - if you were tempted by May before, going Corbyn now even if you dislike this latest policy set seems odd.
As I said in a thread in the week, I think Corbyn - in the nick of time - has played this campaign like a grown-up (rather than the petulant street activist we've all come to know). Smiles at reporters' questions about lightweight personality crap, rules out binning Trident, produces a manifesto full of moon-on-a-stick populism rather than trade deals with Venezuela and renaming every town hall after Bobby Sands.kle4 said:
Still a bit strange to me - if you were tempted by May before, going Corbyn now even if you dislike this latest policy set seems odd.Scott_P said:
I suspect he's done enough to detoxify himself to a lot of wavering social democrats who haven't been impressed by Farron and don't see themselves as Tories.
The solid unchanging core for both main parties is probably 20-25pc each. In a market where the Others have gone home, there's a lot to play for on the shifting sands in between - without many doing a straight swap from Con to Lab.
Labour will still get stuffed, but if May doesnt get a landslide, she won't look like a winner. And I wouldn't bet on Corbyn going fast in such circumstances.0 -
Something I said very late the other night: Theresa May's campaign is the equivalent of Major's "Yes it hurt, yes it worked" only in the future tense - "yes, it's going to hurt, yes it's going to work".MaxPB said:
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.Charles said:
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.ThreeQuidder said:
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
Which is sort of like giving someone advance warning you're about to kick them in the knackers shortly before asking them to vote on whether or not they'd like to be kicked in the knackers.0 -
It would probably have been better for the Tories to publish their shortest ever manifesto, remaining completely noncommital other than saying they need a mandate to negotiate Brexit with as much of a free hand as possible for flexibility.SeanT said:
It's the art of the possible - which, when you have a massive majority, is so much easier.Sandpit said:
The numbers on a National Care Service are horrific though. It's 5p on income tax for everyone. 25%, 45% and 50% rates. Maybe 3p on income tax and 4p on Employer NI to try and hide it a little.The_Apocalypse said:
I'm talking about what I'd prefer, not necessarily what the public would like. In reality, both policies would be unpopular, although the idea of a National Care Service may well be less unpopular than the May policy.kle4 said:
And what would you bet that the reaction to such a proposal would be just as toxic and negative? It's a classic 'people want x but won't pay for it' situation. That's presumably why Labour for one say it could be paid a number of ways, without committing to their preferred way, for fear of people disagreeing. The LDs can be more realistic since no one but a handful will read it anyway.The_Apocalypse said:
I think we'd have to, so yes. I'd prefer to pay more tax as a young person in order to fund social care, rather than leave the burden to individual families.ThreeQuidder said:
Putting up general taxation?The_Apocalypse said:
National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.ThreeQuidder said:
What alternative do you propose?The_Apocalypse said:Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.
If anyone thinks that this policy has gone down badly, anyone proposing seriously a 5p rise in income tax would be shot down completely.
Who was it that said politics was the art of the possible?
The brilliant Theresa has decided to dispense with a massive majority and enact seriously unpopular policies with a majority of 19, or whatever.
They may have received some negative press (although I'd have used the slogan "Just let us govern") but not like the reaction they've got from this.0 -
Didn't know that, you lucky bugger!TheScreamingEagles said:
I was there.Sandpit said:
The greatest night of football of our lifetimes!TheScreamingEagles said:
Theresa May = AC MilanoScrapheap_as_was said:It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
Jeremy Corbyn = Liverpool
2017 = Istanbul 2005
In 2005, R5Live gave their "Fan of the year" award out of sympathy to the Liverpool fan who left at half time to avoid the rush at the airport.
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it's a tradition - you best just sit back and enjoy it whilst the PB Reds gee them along for the fun...tlg86 said:Basically, there are Tories on here criticising May for not offering enough sweeties to the electorate.
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It's a mix of that (those who see it as politically a poor move) and those who don't like it as a policy.tlg86 said:Basically, there are Tories on here criticising May for not offering enough sweeties to the electorate.
Well, she has my support in this, though she did on the NI rise, and she u-turned on that.0 -
This is a bit odd - responsibility for over 75s TVL was passed to BBC by Cameron giving BBC right to means test it.Scott_P said:@ShippersUnbound: BBC plotting to means test the free TV licence. See Sunday Times
But Con manifesto says free TVLs for over 75s are protected for the whole Parliament up to 2022.
Not clear how Con can promise that if BBC now has responsibility.
Or does BBC definitely have responsibility?
ie Is May taking it back?0 -
What did for Senna was a piece of suspension. It'll never be possible to eliminate all of the risk, but safety has come a long way since then. The biggest risk in oval racing is debris hitting a driver as what happened to Justin Wilson.OUT said:
Safety features have come a long long way since then.tlg86 said:F***! Massive crash at Indy from Sebastian Bourdais. Very similar to Senna's at Imola, thankfully he looks okay.
Those safer barriers are saving lives.0 -
we'll be seeing more of that too....kle4 said:
It's a mix of that (those who see it as politically a poor move) and those who don't like it as a policy.tlg86 said:Basically, there are Tories on here criticising May for not offering enough sweeties to the electorate.
Well, she has my support in this, though she did on the NI rise, and she u-turned on that.0 -
Nobody disagrees that social care needs sorting out, but we can't mail a copy of that article to every voter and expect them to read and understand it. It's now the Dementia Tax because they Tories didn't do their homework, and it has given Corbyn a boost. I don't even believe May's capable of defending the policy, I think if she talks about it for the next two and a bit weeks she will only make things worse. The manifesto appears to have done a lot of damage to the Tory campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:As a critic of Mrs May, I'd find it amusing she messed up on one area policy I really do support her on.
Whilst the social care proposals are right in principle, they merely need some tweaks to be a truly great policy.
If you haven't read it, read Alastair's piece from this morning, really glad I asked him to do that piece.0 -
As a percentage rate of return, though, over say 30 years, has it been so terribly different to equities? (NB not just stock price index, including reinvestment of dividends.) Of course for most people their main investment is in bricks and mortar rather than a share portfolio, but someone who worked hard and poured their savings into building up a portfolio and did well out of it over a couple of decades wouldn't cop the same flak as someone who benefitted from an "unearned (and by implication, undeserved) rise in house prices."viewcode said:
Fair point. My point, which was orthogonal to yours instead of rebuttal, is that house prices have changed a lot over the past years.kyf_100 said:
You're looking at this from the wrong angle. I didn't ask how it plays out for _you_, I asked how it would look if you were that person, with the 450k home as your only major asset.viewcode said:
If your hypothetical person bought a two-up-two-down[1] in 1983 then it would have been for about £20K. Your hypothetical person is sitting on a tax-free unearned profit in excess of £400,000. A £450K house in the North East[2] would be detached, around 4-5 bedrooms with a garden surrounding all four sides and a drive.
I posted *actual* house prices earlier today. They are here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017
[1] At the time it would have been nearer two-up-three-or-four-down, with a front room, living room, kitchen and converted bathroom downstairs, with a small yard out the back. But that's me being unbearably pedantic.
[2] Before @YorkCity kicks in, York and Harrogate are in Yorkshire GOR
The answer probably isn't "well, I'm sitting on a 400k unearned asset, whoop-de-doo for me" the answer is probably "I grew up with nothing, worked hard all my life, now that Theresa May has come along and said she's going to take the house I raised my kids in, the house I wanted to leave to them, to pay for my old age, even though I've paid my taxes my entire life".
This is TERRIBLE for the Conservatives. And terrible with the kind of voters they should be winning over - older, lower-middle-class, small c conservative types.0 -
Electoral maths suggests if May gets 46, and the polling says she ought to, she will have a big majority. The Tories just need to hammer on Corbyn, GOTV and strong and stable Brexit and convert intention to votes and she will romp home.0
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En Marche.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is any consolation, I did urge him to stand again.MaxPB said:
He should have bloody stood. I can see the party getting rid as soon as Brexit is done. She will lose badly to a sane Labour party.TheScreamingEagles said:
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....0 -
oh god no - time for bed when I'm on the same page as Montie
https://twitter.com/montie/status/8660337810729082880 -
Fwiw, one of the two donors who refused is a Brexit backer, the other was a Remainer. Both take the same (dim) view of her meddling in business regulation and the, frankly stupid, energy cap. I've known both for a while now and not seen them agree on much.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is any consolation, I did urge him to stand again.MaxPB said:
He should have bloody stood. I can see the party getting rid as soon as Brexit is done. She will lose badly to a sane Labour party.TheScreamingEagles said:
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....0 -
Replying to @Telegraph
Sounds like she had a strong and stable strategy, then. Looks like the Tory party is a coalition of chaos all by itself.0 -
The correct approach is to have a Royal Commission on the issue and come up with fully thought through solutions rather than coming up with some clever wheeze that you've flung together in between dealing with Brexit.Sean_F said:
The alternative, in terms of social care, is just ignore the problem till the system collapses.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
And perhaps that is the correct approach, in political terms.0 -
Your scenario is far-fetched. There are very few lower middle class voters with £450 k houses in Northern seats.kyf_100 said:
I must confess I had to look orthagonal up!viewcode said:
Fair point. My point, which was orthogonal to yours instead of rebuttal, is that house prices have changed a lot over the past years.kyf_100 said:
You're looking at this from the wrong angle. I didn't ask how it plays out for _you_, I asked how it would look if you were that person, with the 450k home as your only major asset.viewcode said:
If your hypothetical person bought a two-up-two-down[1] in 1983 then it would have been for about £20K. Your hypothetical person is sitting on a tax-free unearned profit in excess of £400,000. A £450K house in the North East[2] would be detached, around 4-5 bedrooms with a garden surrounding all four sides and a drive.kyf_100 said:You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from rsonal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
I posted *actual* house prices earlier today. They are here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017
[1] At the time it would have been nearer two-up-three-or-four-down, with a front room, living room, kitchen and converted bathroom downstairs, with a small yard out the back. But that's me being unbearably pedantic.
[2] Before @YorkCity kicks in, York and Harrogate are in Yorkshire GOR
The answer probably isn't "well, I'm sitting on a 400k unearned asset, whoop-de-doo for me" the answer is probably "I grew up with nothing, worked hard all my life, now that Theresa May has come along and said she's going to take the house I raised my kids in, the house I wanted to leave to them, to pay for my old age, even though I've paid my taxes my entire life".
This is TERRIBLE for the Conservatives. And terrible with the kind of voters they should be winning over - older, lower-middle-class, small c conservative types.
I guess the received wisdom on here is that the people who hate the "dementia tax" are the well off in the south - the scenario I've painted above shows why I think it's absolutely devastating for the Tories in marginal northern constituencies with older small c conservative voters.0 -
One of my friends worked for the sponsors.Sandpit said:
Didn't know that, you lucky bugger!TheScreamingEagles said:
I was there.Sandpit said:
The greatest night of football of our lifetimes!TheScreamingEagles said:
Theresa May = AC MilanoScrapheap_as_was said:It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
Jeremy Corbyn = Liverpool
2017 = Istanbul 2005
In 2005, R5Live gave their "Fan of the year" award out of sympathy to the Liverpool fan who left at half time to avoid the rush at the airport.
There's a better story than that.
On the night of the final, back in Liverpool there was an Everton fan who was going on holiday the next day who had to get up at 4am.
He went to bed at half time, safe in knowledge Liverpool had lost.
He woke up around 11.30pm as fireworks were going off, he thought war had broken on.
He switched on the TV, saw what had happened and thought he had died and gone to hell.0 -
For anyone getting enthusiastic about Labour , a quarter of their 34% on Survation is made up of 'Others/Did Not Votes.'0
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East Ren hotting up !
https://twitter.com/LauraEastRen/status/8660249784703713320 -
you dont come to PB to listen to sane ToriesJason said:
Oh gawd not you as well..........the hysteria's contagious here. We've gone from a landslide to a 100 seat majority to a 70 seat majority to a 40 seat majority to a hung parliamnet to May been toppled, all in the space of four days.TheScreamingEagles said:Will Mrs May become the shortest serving Tory leader since IDS?
WTF????? Are there no sane people here??
Personally i have never believed the 400 + Tory seat argument
A 60-70 seat majority would be great and was always far more realistic.
But let the panic continue.0 -
He still talks to @Pulpstar ...TheScreamingEagles said:
No ComRes, unsure about ICM, Martin Boon is ignoring me.Sunil_Prasannan said:ComRes and ICM still to come, I think?
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He'll remain a one nation, pro free market Tory (aka Gladstonian Liberal like moi)kyf_100 said:
En Marche.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is any consolation, I did urge him to stand again.MaxPB said:
He should have bloody stood. I can see the party getting rid as soon as Brexit is done. She will lose badly to a sane Labour party.TheScreamingEagles said:
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....
Like me, he hates splitters from the Tory party.0 -
That requires the Lib Dems (or UKIP) to have not collapsed.MaxPB said:
No I'm not, I'm asking for 48-28ThreeQuidder said:
That might be a fair test if the third parties weren't collapsing. As it is you're asking for 55-35, which is optimistic.MaxPB said:
Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble.kle4 said:
The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.MaxPB said:
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .Mortimer said:
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.MaxPB said:
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.Mortimer said:Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.0 -
My point being, why change a winning formula? Shouldn't we be striving to lower NICs for PAYE rather than raise it for self-employed people?Mortimer said:
PAYE nics are c.26%, self employed nics are too low.MaxPB said:
Higher taxes on people who take the bloody risk of self employment, have basically no safety net and no such thing as paid holiday or the luxury of paid sick leave. It is a tax on risk, since when has the Tory party ever been in favour of increasing taxes on risk takers and entrepreneurs? It's what I expect from Labour, not our own party. Loads of members I know we're disgusted with the idea of hitting self-employed people.Mortimer said:We're in different wings of the party Max - perhaps I've spent too much time around accountants and tax lawyers, but neo-liberal trickle down economics seems too easy for the wealthy to legally game.
Dividend tax hurts me. Social care changes might. Self employed NI changes hurt many of my colleagues. But opposing them would in my opinion be selfish. Because I think it is the right thing to do.
My wing of party wants more competition and consumer choice. Theresa May's wing believes that the government knows better than the free market. It's not a naturally conservative position, and not one I generally agree with.
This is a great country in which to take risks. I should know - I founded a business in '07, went full time after leaving uni and now have employees and a comfortable living. What allowed this to happen was hard work, a grammar school and Oxbridge college that gave me confidence and a loving family. It was not because the dividend taxes or NICs were low.0 -
Do you think people are interested in the details of devolution ???JonathanD said:
Winter fuel payments to OAPs is devolved to the Scottish government, so it's irrelevant what May plans to do with England and Wales.another_richard said:
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
May is cutting it in England and Wales and Davidson is saying Scotland will keep it.
The imagery is terrible.0 -
A friend of mine is self employed and would have had to pay more NI. But he was furious that the government backed down. He hates weakness and if the government thinks something needs to be done they should do it.kle4 said:
It's a mix of that (those who see it as politically a poor move) and those who don't like it as a policy.tlg86 said:Basically, there are Tories on here criticising May for not offering enough sweeties to the electorate.
Well, she has my support in this, though she did on the NI rise, and she u-turned on that.
I still have faith in people to not be completely fickle over this sort of thing, but if the politicians keep delaying tough decisions, eventually the chickens will come home to roost.0 -
Yes but its already been legislated for so can't be withdrawn now. Its already effectively been devolvedcalum said:
WFA reserved until 2019 !JonathanD said:
Winter fuel payments to OAPs is devolved to the Scottish government, so it's irrelevant what May plans to do with England and Wales.another_richard said:
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
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Thats before the Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher Narrative.dyedwoolie said:Electoral maths suggests if May gets 46, and the polling says she ought to, she will have a big majority. The Tories just need to hammer on Corbyn, GOTV and strong and stable Brexit and convert intention to votes and she will romp home.
TM is not on the side of the many and wants to screw them further to fund handouts to the few.
If only Labour had any papers on its side0 -
Miliband never had an ELBOW score higher than 34% during the GE2015 campaign.MaxPB said:
No I'm not, I'm asking for 48-28, which is about where we were before the nation realised that Theresa is Ed Miliband in a skirt.ThreeQuidder said:
That might be a fair test if the third parties weren't collapsing. As it is you're asking for 55-35, which is optimistic.MaxPB said:
Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble.kle4 said:
The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.MaxPB said:
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .Mortimer said:
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.MaxPB said:
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.Mortimer said:Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.0 -
It's the religious pay audit that got me.MaxPB said:
Fwiw, one of the two donors who refused is a Brexit backer, the other was a Remainer. Both take the same (dim) view of her meddling in business regulation and the, frankly stupid, energy cap. I've known both for a while now and not seen them agree on much.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is any consolation, I did urge him to stand again.MaxPB said:
He should have bloody stood. I can see the party getting rid as soon as Brexit is done. She will lose badly to a sane Labour party.TheScreamingEagles said:
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....
It'll be amusing for the likes of you and me, and the consultants in the NHS.0 -
East Ren seems the go to example for a situation designed to confuse unionist tactical voters, as neither SLAB or SCON unofficially play it soft. We are asking a lot of scottish unionists a to vote tactically in the first place and b to do so when neither side is pulling out and officially claim to have the best shot of winning.calum said:East Ren hotting up !
https://twitter.com/LauraEastRen/status/866024978470371332
Anyone have any idea how the tactical campaigning is panning out in the other target seats? It seems clear Edinburgh West is LD target territory, same with East Dunbartonshire, and the borders has to realistically be Con territory, but are there others like East Ren where both sides seem like they are pushing all out?0 -
Why would one expect a Royal Commission to come up with anything better?JonathanD said:
The correct approach is to have a Royal Commission on the issue and come up with fully thought through solutions rather than coming up with some clever wheeze that you've flung together in between dealing with Brexit.Sean_F said:
The alternative, in terms of social care, is just ignore the problem till the system collapses.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
And perhaps that is the correct approach, in political terms.
This is a reasonable policy.0 -
Gotta have some sympathy for Everton fans given that they didn't get their chance to win the trophy with big ears....TheScreamingEagles said:
One of my friends worked for the sponsors.Sandpit said:
Didn't know that, you lucky bugger!TheScreamingEagles said:
I was there.Sandpit said:
The greatest night of football of our lifetimes!TheScreamingEagles said:
Theresa May = AC MilanoScrapheap_as_was said:It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
Jeremy Corbyn = Liverpool
2017 = Istanbul 2005
In 2005, R5Live gave their "Fan of the year" award out of sympathy to the Liverpool fan who left at half time to avoid the rush at the airport.
There's a better story than that.
On the night of the final, back in Liverpool there was an Everton fan who was going on holiday the next day who had to get up at 4am.
He went to bed at half time, safe in knowledge Liverpool had lost.
He woke up around 11.30pm as fireworks were going off, he thought war had broken on.
He switched on the TV, saw what had happened and thought he had died and gone to hell.0 -
How can you compare the two. Mrs May (a remain voter lest we forget) is in the unique position of standing against the weakest Labour leader of all time at a time when UKIP and the Lib Dems are irrelevances. Cameron would be polling considerably over 40 percent now and wouldn't be making the stupid mistakes May is.HYUFD said:
You are still wrong on Mrs May, when did Cameron ever get more than 40% in a general election? Cameron did the hard work to get the Tories back to power to be fair but May is now taking the tough decisions the country needs from its governmentTheScreamingEagles said:
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....0 -
Its called honesty and it is rather refreshing. The bottom line is that it is the right thing to do and she has (quite rightly) calculated that she will win a good majority even if this one policy is initially unpopular.MaxPB said:
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.Charles said:
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.ThreeQuidder said:
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
The alternative would have been to say nothing and then introduce it afterwards with all the outrage about it not having been in the manifesto and how you can't trust the Tories.
Personally I think it is a masterstroke.0 -
Yup I was right to close out my Tory seats buy the other day.0
-
The one that's left her 9,12 and 13 in front tonight having been accused of freezing pensioners to death whilst robbing the mourners of their inheritances?bigjohnowls said:Thats before the Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher Narrative
Labour are going to get the mother of all canings if the Tories tweak sensibly.0 -
you may want to open it again in a couple of days I suggest...TheScreamingEagles said:Yup I was right to close out my Tory seats buy the other day.
0 -
Do both! Here's out plan, not you have X time to come up with something better.Sean_F said:
Why would one expect a Royal Commission to come up with anything better?JonathanD said:
The correct approach is to have a Royal Commission on the issue and come up with fully thought through solutions rather than coming up with some clever wheeze that you've flung together in between dealing with Brexit.Sean_F said:
The alternative, in terms of social care, is just ignore the problem till the system collapses.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
And perhaps that is the correct approach, in political terms.
This is a reasonable policy.
0 -
Not our fault they failed to win their Champs League qualifier in 2005/06tlg86 said:
Gotta have some sympathy for Everton fans given that they didn't get their chance to win the trophy with big ears....TheScreamingEagles said:
One of my friends worked for the sponsors.Sandpit said:
Didn't know that, you lucky bugger!TheScreamingEagles said:
I was there.Sandpit said:
The greatest night of football of our lifetimes!TheScreamingEagles said:
Theresa May = AC MilanoScrapheap_as_was said:It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
Jeremy Corbyn = Liverpool
2017 = Istanbul 2005
In 2005, R5Live gave their "Fan of the year" award out of sympathy to the Liverpool fan who left at half time to avoid the rush at the airport.
There's a better story than that.
On the night of the final, back in Liverpool there was an Everton fan who was going on holiday the next day who had to get up at 4am.
He went to bed at half time, safe in knowledge Liverpool had lost.
He woke up around 11.30pm as fireworks were going off, he thought war had broken on.
He switched on the TV, saw what had happened and thought he had died and gone to hell.
*Innocent Face*0 -
SeanT said:
But the TMay Tories failed to see how this would play. Scots protected from English pain, by virtue of English subsidy? Appalling optics, appalling politics.JonathanD said:
Winter fuel payments to OAPs is devolved to the Scottish government, so it's irrelevant what May plans to do with England and Wales.another_richard said:
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
It's this, the WFA changes, that made my mum call TMay a "bloody silly woman", and my mum is right.
Very wise Sean - your mum is always rightSeanT said:
But the TMay Tories failed to see how this would play. Scots protected from English pain, by virtue of English subsidy? Appalling optics, appalling politics.JonathanD said:
Winter fuel payments to OAPs is devolved to the Scottish government, so it's irrelevant what May plans to do with England and Wales.another_richard said:
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
It's this, the WFA changes, that made my mum call TMay a "bloody silly woman", and my mum is right.
0 -
Yes, they both allegedly fucked up.williamglenn said:Hands up who thinks Nick Timothy is a match for Martin Selmayr?
0 -
If you were building up your share portfolio with the same leverage as someone buying a house on a mortgage - well point one you just wouldn't, and point 2 you would be in prison because you would have had to lie through your teeth to get anyone to lend you that much money for that purpose. And without leverage you're nowhere near the house buyer.MyBurningEars said:
As a percentage rate of return, though, over say 30 years, has it been so terribly different to equities? (NB not just stock price index, including reinvestment of dividends.) Of course for most people their main investment is in bricks and mortar rather than a share portfolio, but someone who worked hard and poured their savings into building up a portfolio and did well out of it over a couple of decades wouldn't cop the same flak as someone who benefitted from an "unearned (and by implication, undeserved) rise in house prices."viewcode said:
Fair point. My point, which was orthogonal to yours instead of rebuttal, is that house prices have changed a lot over the past years.kyf_100 said:
You're looking at this from the wrong angle. I didn't ask how it plays out for _you_, I asked how it would look if you were that person, with the 450k home as your only major asset.viewcode said:
If your hypothetical person bought a two-up-two-down[1] in 1983 then it would have been for about £20K. Your hypothetical person is sitting on a tax-free unearned profit in excess of £400,000. A £450K house in the North East[2] would be detached, around 4-5 bedrooms with a garden surrounding all four sides and a drive.
I posted *actual* house prices earlier today. They are here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017
[1] At the time it would have been nearer two-up-three-or-four-down, with a front room, living room, kitchen and converted bathroom downstairs, with a small yard out the back. But that's me being unbearably pedantic.
[2] Before @YorkCity kicks in, York and Harrogate are in Yorkshire GOR
The answer probably isn't "well, I'm sitting on a 400k unearned asset, whoop-de-doo for me" the answer is probably "I grew up with nothing, worked hard all my life, now that Theresa May has come along and said she's going to take the house I raised my kids in, the house I wanted to leave to them, to pay for my old age, even though I've paid my taxes my entire life".
This is TERRIBLE for the Conservatives. And terrible with the kind of voters they should be winning over - older, lower-middle-class, small c conservative types.0 -
If only they had a leader and cabinet that a sane person would vote for.bigjohnowls said:
Thats before the Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher Narrative.dyedwoolie said:Electoral maths suggests if May gets 46, and the polling says she ought to, she will have a big majority. The Tories just need to hammer on Corbyn, GOTV and strong and stable Brexit and convert intention to votes and she will romp home.
TM is not on the side of the many and wants to screw them further to fund handouts to the few.
If only Labour had any papers on its side0 -
And erode the tax base further? That sort of lazy neo-liberalism is why Cameron/Osborne never got 40% of the vote, let alone 45%MaxPB said:
My point being, why change a winning formula? Shouldn't we be striving to lower NICs for PAYE rather than raise it for self-employed people?Mortimer said:
PAYE nics are c.26%, self employed nics are too low.MaxPB said:
Higher taxes on people who take the bloody risk of self employment, have basically no safety net and no such thing as paid holiday or the luxury of paid sick leave. It is a tax on risk, since when has the Tory party ever been in favour of increasing taxes on risk takers and entrepreneurs? It's what I expect from Labour, not our own party. Loads of members I know we're disgusted with the idea of hitting self-employed people.Mortimer said:We're in different wings of the party Max - perhaps I've spent too much time around accountants and tax lawyers, but neo-liberal trickle down economics seems too easy for the wealthy to legally game.
Dividend tax hurts me. Social care changes might. Self employed NI changes hurt many of my colleagues. But opposing them would in my opinion be selfish. Because I think it is the right thing to do.
My wing of party wants more competition and consumer choice. Theresa May's wing believes that the government knows better than the free market. It's not a naturally conservative position, and not one I generally agree with.
This is a great country in which to take risks. I should know - I founded a business in '07, went full time after leaving uni and now have employees and a comfortable living. What allowed this to happen was hard work, a grammar school and Oxbridge college that gave me confidence and a loving family. It was not because the dividend taxes or NICs were low.0 -
We have two polls tonight post Con Manifesto launch - YouGov and Survation.
Con average score is 45 - down just approx 1.5 points from average Con score over last few weeks.
It's hardly significant given we don't have an ICM or ComRes.
The big move is the Lab rise. People are mistaking the lead narrowing with a significant Con fall - which hasn't happened.0 -
I agree but in the heat of an election, it's going to need some strong/stable resolve... will be interesting to see if that is proven to be there? I hope it is.Richard_Tyndall said:
Its called honesty and it is rather refreshing. The bottom line is that it is the right thing to do and she has (quite rightly) calculated that she will win a good majority even if this one policy is initially unpopular.MaxPB said:
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.Charles said:
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.ThreeQuidder said:
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
The alternative would have been to say nothing and then introduce it afterwards with all the outrage about it not having been in the manifesto and how you can't trust the Tories.
Personally I think it is a masterstroke.0 -
To deliver promise English MPs will need to vote to preserve it till thenJonathanD said:
Yes but its already been legislated for so can't be withdrawn now. Its already effectively been devolvedcalum said:
WFA reserved until 2019 !JonathanD said:
Winter fuel payments to OAPs is devolved to the Scottish government, so it's irrelevant what May plans to do with England and Wales.another_richard said:
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.0 -
This.SeanT said:
But the TMay Tories failed to see how this would play. Scots protected from English pain, by virtue of English subsidy? Appalling optics, appalling politics.JonathanD said:
Winter fuel payments to OAPs is devolved to the Scottish government, so it's irrelevant what May plans to do with England and Wales.another_richard said:
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
It's this, the WFA changes, that made my mum call TMay a "bloody silly woman", and my mum is right.
0 -
That if I come back to live inTheScreamingEagles said:
It's the religious pay audit that got me.MaxPB said:
Fwiw, one of the two donors who refused is a Brexit backer, the other was a Remainer. Both take the same (dim) view of her meddling in business regulation and the, frankly stupid, energy cap. I've known both for a while now and not seen them agree on much.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is any consolation, I did urge him to stand again.MaxPB said:
He should have bloody stood. I can see the party getting rid as soon as Brexit is done. She will lose badly to a sane Labour party.TheScreamingEagles said:
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....
It'll be amusing for the likes of you and me, and the consultants in the NHS.Ed Miliband'sTheresa's Britain. Might just wait it out until the party depose her for Javid or another proper Conservative.0 -
Fair point, although if that rise is due to people not liking the Tory policy, it is still a hit caused by the manifesto, though how sustained we will have to see.MikeL said:We have two polls tonight post Con Manifesto launch - YouGov and Survation.
Con average score is 45 - down just approx 1.5 points from average Con score over last few weeks.
It's hardly significant given we don't have an ICM or ComRes.
The big move is the Lab rise. People are mistaking the lead narrowing with a significant Con fall - which hasn't happened.0 -
The tax base and the overall tax take need eroding. Massively.Mortimer said:
And erode the tax base further? That sort of lazy neo-liberalism is why Cameron/Osborne never got 40% of the vote, let alone 45%MaxPB said:
My point being, why change a winning formula? Shouldn't we be striving to lower NICs for PAYE rather than raise it for self-employed people?Mortimer said:
PAYE nics are c.26%, self employed nics are too low.MaxPB said:
Higher taxes on people who take the bloody risk of self employment, have basically no safety net and no such thing as paid holiday or the luxury of paid sick leave. It is a tax on risk, since when has the Tory party ever been in favour of increasing taxes on risk takers and entrepreneurs? It's what I expect from Labour, not our own party. Loads of members I know we're disgusted with the idea of hitting self-employed people.Mortimer said:We're in different wings of the party Max - perhaps I've spent too much time around accountants and tax lawyers, but neo-liberal trickle down economics seems too easy for the wealthy to legally game.
Dividend tax hurts me. Social care changes might. Self employed NI changes hurt many of my colleagues. But opposing them would in my opinion be selfish. Because I think it is the right thing to do.
My wing of party wants more competition and consumer choice. Theresa May's wing believes that the government knows better than the free market. It's not a naturally conservative position, and not one I generally agree with.
This is a great country in which to take risks. I should know - I founded a business in '07, went full time after leaving uni and now have employees and a comfortable living. What allowed this to happen was hard work, a grammar school and Oxbridge college that gave me confidence and a loving family. It was not because the dividend taxes or NICs were low.0 -
Stop raising the tax free allowance or raise the minimum wage faster than inflation to increase the tax base. That way everyone pays equally, self employed and employed alike or the employed get more money and pay more tax.Mortimer said:
And erode the tax base further? That sort of lazy neo-liberalism is why Cameron/Osborne never got 40% of the vote, let alone 45%MaxPB said:
My point being, why change a winning formula? Shouldn't we be striving to lower NICs for PAYE rather than raise it for self-employed people?Mortimer said:
PAYE nics are c.26%, self employed nics are too low.MaxPB said:
Higher taxes on people who take the bloody risk of self employment, have basically no safety net and no such thing as paid holiday or the luxury of paid sick leave. It is a tax on risk, since when has the Tory party ever been in favour of increasing taxes on risk takers and entrepreneurs? It's what I expect from Labour, not our own party. Loads of members I know we're disgusted with the idea of hitting self-employed people.Mortimer said:We're in different wings of the party Max - perhaps I've spent too much time around accountants and tax lawyers, but neo-liberal trickle down economics seems too easy for the wealthy to legally game.
Dividend tax hurts me. Social care changes might. Self employed NI changes hurt many of my colleagues. But opposing them would in my opinion be selfish. Because I think it is the right thing to do.
My wing of party wants more competition and consumer choice. Theresa May's wing believes that the government knows better than the free market. It's not a naturally conservative position, and not one I generally agree with.
This is a great country in which to take risks. I should know - I founded a business in '07, went full time after leaving uni and now have employees and a comfortable living. What allowed this to happen was hard work, a grammar school and Oxbridge college that gave me confidence and a loving family. It was not because the dividend taxes or NICs were low.0 -
Depends when the change is made.calum said:
To deliver promise English MPs will need to vote to preserve it till thenJonathanD said:
Yes but its already been legislated for so can't be withdrawn now. Its already effectively been devolvedcalum said:
WFA reserved until 2019 !JonathanD said:
Winter fuel payments to OAPs is devolved to the Scottish government, so it's irrelevant what May plans to do with England and Wales.another_richard said:
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.0 -
Last time Richard T and I agreed on something was that people might vote for Brexit despite the economic Armageddon predicted.Richard_Tyndall said:
Its called honesty and it is rather refreshing. The bottom line is that it is the right thing to do and she has (quite rightly) calculated that she will win a good majority even if this one policy is initially unpopular.MaxPB said:
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.Charles said:
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.ThreeQuidder said:
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
The alternative would have been to say nothing and then introduce it afterwards with all the outrage about it not having been in the manifesto and how you can't trust the Tories.
Personally I think it is a masterstroke.
Just saying...0 -
Yes not good .Blair always had John Reid to send out in hard times.Difficult who to think of in today's cabinet who could do a similar job.I was watching TV the other day and the conservatives refused to send someone .So it was left to a Lib Dem and Labour .At least with Blair they fought their corner in all possible media outlets even with unpopular policies to get the point across.calum said:Boris defending the Manifesto on Peston !
0 -
I'd be amazed if even 10% of the population of England & Wales is even aware of both the Con policy for winter fuel and the different policy in Scotland.
It's been nowhere near prominently enough reported for that - coupled with low TV news ratings.0 -
You'll be glad to know I have just disagreed with you on the issue of tax so normality is restoredMortimer said:
Last time Richard T and I agreed on something was that people might vote for Brexit despite the economic Armageddon predicted.Richard_Tyndall said:
Its called honesty and it is rather refreshing. The bottom line is that it is the right thing to do and she has (quite rightly) calculated that she will win a good majority even if this one policy is initially unpopular.MaxPB said:
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.Charles said:
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.ThreeQuidder said:
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
The alternative would have been to say nothing and then introduce it afterwards with all the outrage about it not having been in the manifesto and how you can't trust the Tories.
Personally I think it is a masterstroke.
Just saying...
0 -
Remember what a genius Osborne was for not announcing the Living Wage before the 2015 GE because he needed to save it for his tax credits cutting budget?0
-
-
May should tag herself in to do it. I don't fully understand her popularity, but it is pretty good, and she is more serious and on message than Boris will be.Yorkcity said:
Yes not good .Blair always had John Reid to send out in hard times.Difficult who to think of in today's cabinet who could do a similar job.I was watching TV the other day and the conservatives refused to send someone .So it was left to a Lib Dem and Labour .At least with Blair they fought their corner in all possible media outlets even with unpopular policies to get the point across.calum said:Boris defending the Manifesto on Peston !
0 -
Broken, sleazy THERESA MAY'S TEAM on the slide0
-
The mantra was always "look at the share, not the lead". And the Tory share has been remarkably stable since the jump when the election was called.MikeL said:We have two polls tonight post Con Manifesto launch - YouGov and Survation.
Con average score is 45 - down just approx 1.5 points from average Con score over last few weeks.
It's hardly significant given we don't have an ICM or ComRes.
The big move is the Lab rise. People are mistaking the lead narrowing with a significant Con fall - which hasn't happened.0 -
Who said say nothing? It would be easy to just put one or two lines in "we will seek to reform social care and fully fund it by the end of 2022".Richard_Tyndall said:
Its called honesty and it is rather refreshing. The bottom line is that it is the right thing to do and she has (quite rightly) calculated that she will win a good majority even if this one policy is initially unpopular.MaxPB said:
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.Charles said:
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.ThreeQuidder said:
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
The alternative would have been to say nothing and then introduce it afterwards with all the outrage about it not having been in the manifesto and how you can't trust the Tories.
Personally I think it is a masterstroke.
That's literally all they needed and they could have just kept the plans secret until after the election.0 -
That is bonkers, certainly.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's the religious pay audit that got me.MaxPB said:
Fwiw, one of the two donors who refused is a Brexit backer, the other was a Remainer. Both take the same (dim) view of her meddling in business regulation and the, frankly stupid, energy cap. I've known both for a while now and not seen them agree on much.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is any consolation, I did urge him to stand again.MaxPB said:
He should have bloody stood. I can see the party getting rid as soon as Brexit is done. She will lose badly to a sane Labour party.TheScreamingEagles said:
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....
It'll be amusing for the likes of you and me, and the consultants in the NHS.0 -
Looking forward to losing your WFA Mike ?MikeSmithson said:
Very wise Sean - your mum is always rightSeanT said:
But the TMay Tories failed to see how this would play. Scots protected from English pain, by virtue of English subsidy? Appalling optics, appalling politics.JonathanD said:
Winter fuel payments to OAPs is devolved to the Scottish government, so it's irrelevant what May plans to do with England and Wales.another_richard said:
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
It's this, the WFA changes, that made my mum call TMay a "bloody silly woman", and my mum is right.
You'll at least have the satisfaction of knowing that Scottish millionaires are keeping theirs.
0 -
Evening all, and what an amusing evening.
Executive summary: everyone now agrees that Cameron and Osborne weren't so bad at this politics malarkey after all, right?0 -
Alright. When are the next polls due?
Looking forward to that Labour lead. 0 -
Richard_Tyndall said:
You'll be glad to know I have just disagreed with you on the issue of tax so normality is restoredMortimer said:
Last time Richard T and I agreed on something was that people might vote for Brexit despite the economic Armageddon predicted.Richard_Tyndall said:
Its called honesty and it is rather refreshing. The bottom line is that it is the right thing to do and she has (quite rightly) calculated that she will win a good majority even if this one policy is initially unpopular.MaxPB said:
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.Charles said:
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.ThreeQuidder said:
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
The alternative would have been to say nothing and then introduce it afterwards with all the outrage about it not having been in the manifesto and how you can't trust the Tories.
Personally I think it is a masterstroke.
Just saying... 0 -
A few years back my parents gave a fundraiser for the local hospice. We borrowed a couple of 48 pounders from the local barracks (for the 1812 overture).TheScreamingEagles said:
One of my friends worked for the sponsors.Sandpit said:
Didn't know that, you lucky bugger!TheScreamingEagles said:
I was there.Sandpit said:
The greatest night of football of our lifetimes!TheScreamingEagles said:
Theresa May = AC MilanoScrapheap_as_was said:It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
Jeremy Corbyn = Liverpool
2017 = Istanbul 2005
In 2005, R5Live gave their "Fan of the year" award out of sympathy to the Liverpool fan who left at half time to avoid the rush at the airport.
There's a better story than that.
On the night of the final, back in Liverpool there was an Everton fan who was going on holiday the next day who had to get up at 4am.
He went to bed at half time, safe in knowledge Liverpool had lost.
He woke up around 11.30pm as fireworks were going off, he thought war had broken on.
He switched on the TV, saw what had happened and thought he had died and gone to hell.
The police switchboard was jammed with people asking if the Germans were invading...0 -
Evening all - Orb 46, Opinium 46, YG 44(-1) – not quite the Armageddon I was expecting...0
-
Let's reduce that to 300k, then. Or even 200k. There are a heck of a lot of lower middle class types with 250k-ish houses in what are now marginal constituencies.Sean_F said:
Your scenario is far-fetched. There are very few lower middle class voters with £450 k houses in Northern seats.kyf_100 said:
I must confess I had to look orthagonal up!viewcode said:
Fair point. My point, which was orthogonal to yours instead of rebuttal, is that house prices have changed a lot over the past years.
I guess the received wisdom on here is that the people who hate the "dementia tax" are the well off in the south - the scenario I've painted above shows why I think it's absolutely devastating for the Tories in marginal northern constituencies with older small c conservative voters.
Don't try telling them that 250k isn't a lot of money, or that being left with 100k to spread amongst kids and grandkids is just fine and dandy, when you were planning to give them 250k. They are people who worked hard all their lives - AND PAID TAXES - and expected to give their 250k or therabouts to their kids.
This is a generation of working class kids done good, who were sold on the lie of 'cradle to grave' in exchange for a life of taxation and to find that they are suddenly expected to give up 50-90% of their assets to pay for their medical bills, leaving their kids in a not much better position than they started out in themselves.
They are the savers and the small c conservative penny pinchers, and they will have friends and acquaintances who have lived more recklessly and will have 100k or less who will still be covered and they will look at this policy and go "that's the Tories for you, you can't win with them, they just aren't for people like you or me".
You may argue "oh, but you were potentially going to lose everyting down to your last 23k before" but the fact is most people don't read the fine print, they just hear DEMENTIA TAX which is like winning the reverse-lottery on top of an already terrifying and dehumanising condition.
This is an utter turkey, a vote loser of the highest order. And it's a vote loser where the Tories need it most - with older, lower middle class voters whose main asset is their house.0 -
Did any Tory MPs in the last few weeks write an article in which they said
'Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority'
Feels like déjà vu0 -
But what if the Tories had lost? Of course, we'd never have known about it but Osborne would probably have kicked himself for saving it for after the election.RobD said:
I'd say that delivering unexpected goodies is okay.tlg86 said:Remember what a genius Osborne was for not announcing the Living Wage because he needed to save it for his tax credits cutting budget?
By having this policy in the manifesto, there can be no outrage about it after she's won the election.0 -
Shush.. don't ruin the fun.SimonStClare said:Evening all - Orb 46, Opinium 46, YG 44(-1) – not quite the Armageddon I was expecting...
0 -
Agreed.tlg86 said:
But what if the Tories had lost? Of course, we'd never have known about it but Osborne would probably have kicked himself for saving it for after the election.RobD said:
I'd say that delivering unexpected goodies is okay.tlg86 said:Remember what a genius Osborne was for not announcing the Living Wage because he needed to save it for his tax credits cutting budget?
By having this policy in the manifesto, there can be no outrage about it after she's won the election.0 -
I'm going weak and wibbly with Corbyn going within 9 points. The third party squeeze is well and truly on in the East Midlands nowRichard_Nabavi said:Evening all, and what an amusing evening.
Executive summary: everyone now agrees that Cameron and Osborne weren't so bad at this politics malarkey after all, right?0 -
TSE, how many Liverpool fans does it take to change a light bulb?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not our fault they failed to win their Champs League qualifier in 2005/06tlg86 said:
Gotta have some sympathy for Everton fans given that they didn't get their chance to win the trophy with big ears....TheScreamingEagles said:
One of my friends worked for the sponsors.Sandpit said:
Didn't know that, you lucky bugger!TheScreamingEagles said:
I was there.Sandpit said:
The greatest night of football of our lifetimes!TheScreamingEagles said:
Theresa May = AC MilanoScrapheap_as_was said:It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
Jeremy Corbyn = Liverpool
2017 = Istanbul 2005
In 2005, R5Live gave their "Fan of the year" award out of sympathy to the Liverpool fan who left at half time to avoid the rush at the airport.
There's a better story than that.
On the night of the final, back in Liverpool there was an Everton fan who was going on holiday the next day who had to get up at 4am.
He went to bed at half time, safe in knowledge Liverpool had lost.
He woke up around 11.30pm as fireworks were going off, he thought war had broken on.
He switched on the TV, saw what had happened and thought he had died and gone to hell.
*Innocent Face*
None. They'd just talk about how good the old one was.0 -
200 deliveries or canvassing for Clegg next weekend still. He's still in desperate trouble0
-
If ICM are sticking to their usual schedule, the fieldwork for their next poll should finish tomorrow, published in Monday's Guardian.0
-
House prices *trebled* from 1995 to 2007. That's equivalent to a 10% return pa compound for twelve years in succession. Plus it's not taxed as profit, whereas your hypothetical share portfolio would attract tax.MyBurningEars said:
As a percentage rate of return, though, over say 30 years, has it been so terribly different to equities? (NB not just stock price index, including reinvestment of dividends.) Of course for most people their main investment is in bricks and mortar rather than a share portfolio, but someone who worked hard and poured their savings into building up a portfolio and did well out of it over a couple of decades wouldn't cop the same flak as someone who benefitted from an "unearned (and by implication, undeserved) rise in house prices."viewcode said:
Fair point. My point, which was orthogonal to yours instead of rebuttal, is that house prices have changed a lot over the past years.kyf_100 said:
You're looking at this from the wrong angle. I didn't ask how it plays out for _you_, I asked how it would look if you were that person, with the 450k home as your only major asset.viewcode said:
If your hypothetical person bought a two-up-two-down[1] in 1983 then it would have been for about £20K. Your hypothetical person is sitting on a tax-free unearned profit in excess of £400,000. A £450K house in the North East[2] would be detached, around 4-5 bedrooms with a garden surrounding all four sides and a drive.
I posted *actual* house prices earlier today. They are here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017
[1] At the time it would have been nearer two-up-three-or-four-down, with a front room, living room, kitchen and converted bathroom downstairs, with a small yard out the back. But that's me being unbearably pedantic.
[2] Before @YorkCity kicks in, York and Harrogate are in Yorkshire GOR
The answer probably isn't "well, I'm sitting on a 400k unearned asset, whoop-de-doo for me" the answer is probably "I grew up with nothing, worked hard all my life, now that Theresa May has come along and said she's going to take the house I raised my kids in, the house I wanted to leave to them, to pay for my old age, even though I've paid my taxes my entire life".
This is TERRIBLE for the Conservatives. And terrible with the kind of voters they should be winning over - older, lower-middle-class, small c conservative types.
Admittedly it's peak-to-trough, but it's illustrative: things really did change, and the distortion does affect things.0 -
It isn't her it is Timothy-everything i hear from those close to the campaign is that he has way too much influence, doesn't listen to anybody else and whilst very clever doesn't relate to the average person.MaxPB said:
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.Charles said:
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.ThreeQuidder said:
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
If Lynton runs the campaign from now on then things will be fine-if he doesn't then we will win but it will feel like a defeat.0 -
They just got caught on the wrong side of the Brexit argument. Honestly, if Dave had backed Leave we'd have had 60% in favour and be looking at 150+ in terms of the majority right now. He'd be the most popular PM since Churchill and probably have gone down in history as one of the all time greats regardless of the short term issues Brexit might deliver.Richard_Nabavi said:Evening all, and what an amusing evening.
Executive summary: everyone now agrees that Cameron and Osborne weren't so bad at this politics malarkey after all, right?0 -
0
-
Devolved or not, the situation is a Tory leader is supporting it along with her Tory leader in Scotland.JonathanD said:
Yes but its already been legislated for so can't be withdrawn now. Its already effectively been devolvedcalum said:
WFA reserved until 2019 !JonathanD said:
Winter fuel payments to OAPs is devolved to the Scottish government, so it's irrelevant what May plans to do with England and Wales.another_richard said:
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
England and Wales can just shiver.0 -
Well, he called 2015 right on the key issue.Scrapheap_as_was said:Where St Dan leads, certain people follow...
htt://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/8658588370473738240 -
I appreciate that a free lunch is popular. But someone has to pay for it. Your view is that people who with assets above £23 k, who have to go into care homes, are the ones who should pay for it.kyf_100 said:
Let's reduce that to 300k, then. Or even 200k. There are a heck of a lot of lower middle class types with 250k-ish houses in what are now marginal constituencies.Sean_F said:
Your scenario is far-fetched. There are very few lower middle class voters with £450 k houses in Northern seats.kyf_100 said:
I must confess I had to look orthagonal up!viewcode said:
Fair point. My point, which was orthogonal to yours instead of rebuttal, is that house prices have changed a lot over the past years.
I guess the received wisdom on here is that the people who hate the "dementia tax" are the well off in the south - the scenario I've painted above shows why I think it's absolutely devastating for the Tories in marginal northern constituencies with older small c conservative voters.
Don't try telling them that 250k isn't a lot of money, or that being left with 100k to spread amongst kids and grandkids is just fine and dandy, when you were planning to give them 250k. They are people who worked hard all their lives - AND PAID TAXES - and expected to give their 250k or therabouts to their kids.
This is a generation of working class kids done good, who were sold on the lie of 'cradle to grave' in exchange for a life of taxation and to find that they are suddenly expected to give up 50-90% of their assets to pay for their medical bills, leaving their kids in a not much better position than they started out in themselves.
They are the savers and the small c conservative penny pinchers, and they will have friends and acquaintances who have lived more recklessly and will have 100k or less who will still be covered and they will look at this policy and go "that's the Tories for you, you can't win with them, they just aren't for people like you or me".
You may argue "oh, but you were potentially going to lose everyting down to your last 23k before" but the fact is most people don't read the fine print, they just hear DEMENTIA TAX which is like winning the reverse-lottery on top of an already terrifying and dehumanising condition.
This is an utter turkey, a vote loser of the highest order. And it's a vote loser where the Tories need it most - with older, lower middle class voters whose main asset is their house.0 -
https://twitter.com/AndrewSparrow/status/864083737167974401SeanT said:
What, in God's good name, is the "religious pay audit"?? Is this another Tory manifesto lunacy that I missed??Sean_F said:
That is bonkers, certainly.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's the religious pay audit that got me.MaxPB said:
Fwiw, one of the two donors who refused is a Brexit backer, the other was a Remainer. Both take the same (dim) view of her meddling in business regulation and the, frankly stupid, energy cap. I've known both for a while now and not seen them agree on much.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is any consolation, I did urge him to stand again.MaxPB said:
He should have bloody stood. I can see the party getting rid as soon as Brexit is done. She will lose badly to a sane Labour party.TheScreamingEagles said:
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....
It'll be amusing for the likes of you and me, and the consultants in the NHS.0 -
Exactly - Bob Worcester said that.ThreeQuidder said:
The mantra was always "look at the share, not the lead". And the Tory share has been remarkably stable since the jump when the election was called.MikeL said:We have two polls tonight post Con Manifesto launch - YouGov and Survation.
Con average score is 45 - down just approx 1.5 points from average Con score over last few weeks.
It's hardly significant given we don't have an ICM or ComRes.
The big move is the Lab rise. People are mistaking the lead narrowing with a significant Con fall - which hasn't happened.
If ICM or ComRes have Con at 44 then OK, everyone can panic a bit.
But let's wait and see - hopefully we get ICM in the morning.0 -
Timothy is a pound shop Letwin AIUI.RepublicanTory said:
It isn't her it is Timothy-everything i hear from those close to the campaign is that he has way too much influence, doesn't listen to anybody else and whilst very clever doesn't relate to the average person.MaxPB said:
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.Charles said:
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.ThreeQuidder said:
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
If Lynton runs the campaign from now on then things will be fine-if he doesn't then we will win but it will feel like a defeat.0 -
Ruth's biggest error over the last week was not accepting my local councillor's resignation - this chap appears to have managed to upset everybody except Ruth and her SCON executive - they've now belatedly suspended him after the Catholic Church entered the fray:
http://www.sconews.co.uk/news/53123/conservatives-suspend-councillor-after-sco-report-into-bigoted-comments/0 -
Whatever the merits, or not, of that policy, it is one I cannot see gaining any traction with the public like social care or winter fuel allowances, so she's safe on that one.TheScreamingEagles said:
https:/witter.com/AndrewSparrow/status/864083737167974401SeanT said:
What, in God's good name, is the "religious pay audit"?? Is this another Tory manifesto lunacy that I missed??Sean_F said:
That is bonkers, certainly.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's the religious pay audit that got me.MaxPB said:
Fwiw, one of the two donors who refused is a Brexit backer, the other was a Remainer. Both take the same (dim) view of her meddling in business regulation and the, frankly stupid, energy cap. I've known both for a while now and not seen them agree on much.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is any consolation, I did urge him to stand again.MaxPB said:
He should have bloody stood. I can see the party getting rid as soon as Brexit is done. She will lose badly to a sane Labour party.TheScreamingEagles said:
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....
It'll be amusing for the likes of you and me, and the consultants in the NHS.0
This discussion has been closed.