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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With postal voting just starting CON maintains emphatic lead

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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    SeanT said:

    Floater said:

    nunu said:

    Floater said:

    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a wn pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.

    same bloody effect.
    its a strange tax that effectively would give my wife a bigger inheritance......

    So, no
    The point is, it can very very easily be painted that way: as a tax. And a particularly spiteful tax, at that. This is why it is so politically stupid, setting aside the (highly debatable) merits of the proposal itself.
    So - if people are prepared to lie they can paint it as a tax.

    No wonder nothing gets done eh.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Tories 9 ahead in the eye of the storm.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Called it...... read the spin before the ball left his hand
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: Corbyn's Labour is now polling 5 points higher than Ed Miliband got in 2015. The thing about populism is that it can be popular
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll

    Con 44 (-1) Lab 34 (+2) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)

    I thought Labour is at 35. LD goes up to 9. What's not to like ?

    Right = 44 + 3 = 47.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Starts preparing for Canadian asylum questions....
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    Floater said:

    SeanT said:

    Floater said:

    nunu said:

    Floater said:

    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a wn pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.

    same bloody effect.
    its a strange tax that effectively would give my wife a bigger inheritance......

    So, no
    The point is, it can very very easily be painted that way: as a tax. And a particularly spiteful tax, at that. This is why it is so politically stupid, setting aside the (highly debatable) merits of the proposal itself.
    So - if people are prepared to lie they can paint it as a tax.

    No wonder nothing gets done eh.
    Let me introduce you to the Bedroom tax.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    Labour polling as high as GE2005? Seriously?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Oh noes, 44%, more than Blair got in 1997!
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Corbyn on 35 even in an outlier with temporary effects is still a damning indictment
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    So now the big question - is this the high point for Lab, or are the Tories really doing that badly and this will be sustained?

    The other question - will Lab supporters be as overexcited by single polls as Tories?
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Large net and tranquilliser gun to PB Tory supporters homes please.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    OK DOUBTERS.

    Give me some respect. I said these policies were a dreadful example of big fucking hairy bollocks from the beginning. Right from the start. Right from the get-go.

    I was right. Sadly, sadly. I was right.

    HOW TO HALVE YOUR LEAD IN 48 HOURS, A SEMINAR BY THERESA MAY

    Sean, more pertinently, this has not yet been fully aired. When aunty is going to talk to mother and grandma butts in..................oh, hell !

    Don't worry ! LABOUR CANNOT WIN !
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Corbyn's Labour is now polling 5 points higher than Ed Miliband got in 2015. The thing about populism is that it can be popular

    HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    OUT said:

    Large net and tranquilliser gun to PB Tory supporters homes please.

    :D
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    HaroldO said:

    Uff, that is a big change in a week.

    49% was too high. This is still consistent with a Tory share of 45-46% pending more polling. And that is a healthy majority unless all the Others collapse and Labour get 40%.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    surbiton said:

    Dirty, nasty, sleazy, panic-stricken Tories on the slide !
    Evil Tories v. Evil Terrorist-loving Labour?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    SeanT said:

    Floater said:

    nunu said:

    Floater said:

    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a wn pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.

    same bloody effect.
    its a strange tax that effectively would give my wife a bigger inheritance......

    So, no
    The point is, it can very very easily be painted that way: as a tax. And a particularly spiteful tax, at that. This is why it is so politically stupid, setting aside the (highly debatable) merits of the proposal itself.
    So - if people are prepared to lie they can paint it as a tax.

    No wonder nothing gets done eh.
    Let me introduce you to the Bedroom tax.
    Do you remember the Community charge or the Poll Tax ?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    #35 is still less that 44, ergo the many still support the tories.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.

    What alternative do you propose?
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    OUTLIER KLAXON

    Lol. No outlier. Self inflicted stupidity. Name one well explained and thought out policy since TM became PM. Not being Corbyn isn't and shouldn't be enough.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I wonder what Eoin Clarke's reaction to this poll is though....
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Sandpit said:

    Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.

    There is a difference between liking something and caring enough about something that you change your vote on the back of a reaction one way or another to something.

    An example is rail nationalisation. A lot of people want it, but typically transport only scores 3% or so when people are asked to name their top three issues.

    It's pensioners who are the people who are really going to care enough to change their vote if the perception sticks that the Conservatives are really having a go at pensioners. Probably also those approaching the ever receding state pension age (eg. in the case of WASPI women)

    Ah, but how many of those who really care are in a position to make a difference to the election?

    Your average home in the Midlands is worth substantially less than £200,000. Most of that value would be preserved. In the North and Wales, it's less than that.

    The people most likely to be affected by this policy are, surprise surprise, wealthy homeowners and their heirs in Southern England, who (a) mostly inhabit safe seats and (b) can only rescue themselves from this policy by voting for a socialist, whom they must suspect would tax the crap out of them in the end, whatever he says to get their vote.

    The care policy could have a price, but it's liable to be modest, and to be concentrated disproportionately in those constituencies where it will do the least amount of harm. The policy may simply have the effect of making the Conservatives' voter distribution more efficient, rather than depriving them of any meaningful number of MPs.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,869
    CON: 44% (-1)
    LAB: 35% (+3)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)
    UKIP: 3% (-3)

    Tonights YG TMICIPM
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: David Davis says he's prepared to walk away from Brexit talks if EU won't compromise on money. Exclusive interview in Sunday Times
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    Poor Ed Miliband - he doesn't deserve to see Corbyn easily outperform him.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: YouGov/Sunday Times
    On the changes to care funding 35% said they supported them, 40% they opposed them
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    FFS
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: David Davis says he's prepared to walk away from Brexit talks if EU won't compromise on money. Exclusive interview in Sunday Times

    I think I smell a dead cat.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.

    What alternative do you propose?
    National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    chestnut said:

    Tories 9 ahead in the eye of the storm.

    The calm bit of the storm.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Everyone seems (I think) to agree that the Tory policy (whether or not it is a long term solution) is a large improvement on the current position for those unfortunate enough to have to secure long term care in a home (can defer the costs until death, and an increase in the floor from £23k to £100k).

    From some angles it is, however worse for those needing care in the home. But how much does care in the home cost? It must, surely, be significantly lower than moving to a care home (which was quoted at £30k a year). And can be reduced further if relatives (those who lose out on a bit of their inheritance) help out. Even if it was, say, £10k a year, the dementia sufferer has to live quite a long time before the inheritance of those with large houses in the South are going to be massively affected.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    I told the many PB Tories that the lead will be circa 10% this week and how right I am....

    Probably this is peak Labour but let's savour it!
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.

    Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    SeanT said:

    Floater said:

    nunu said:

    Floater said:

    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:


    Got it in one.

    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a wn pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.

    same bloody effect.
    its a strange tax that effectively would give my wife a bigger inheritance......

    So, no
    The point is, it can very very easily be painted that way: as a tax. And a particularly spiteful tax, at that. This is why it is so politically stupid, setting aside the (highly debatable) merits of the proposal itself.
    So - if people are prepared to lie they can paint it as a tax.

    No wonder nothing gets done eh.
    Let me introduce you to the Bedroom tax.
    Do you remember the Community charge or the Poll Tax ?
    That at least was a tax. This isn't, nor was HB reform.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Freggles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    nunu said:

    Floater said:

    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
    Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
    why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
    Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
    You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.

    same bloody effect.
    I bought a bar of chocolate this morning and had to pay every bloody penny of the price out of my own pocket. Bloody Chocolate Tax.
    How many people do you reckon go to the shops and buy dementia?
    They stay at home, and buy dementia care.

    Are you feeling alright?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2017

    I wonder what Eoin Clarke's reaction to this poll is though....

    image
    https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/488/485/485488.jpg
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,955
    SeanT said:

    TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.

    Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.

    Yes, she does - but how does an open admission of indecisiveness and weakness help her appear strong and stable or look like the best person to negotiate Brexit?

    She'll double down, refuse to admit her errors, and go hard on a negative campaign on Corbyn, which will just make the Tories look even more like the nasty party, and on the back foot.

    Pass the smelling salts...
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    SeanT said:

    OK DOUBTERS.

    Give me some respect. I said these policies were a dreadful example of big fucking hairy bollocks from the beginning. Right from the start. Right from the get-go.

    I was right. Sadly, sadly. I was right.

    HOW TO HALVE YOUR LEAD IN 48 HOURS, A SEMINAR BY THERESA MAY

    Labour polling as high as GE2005? Seriously?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:



    I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.

    I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.

    As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.
    We are guaranteed an Europa Cup spot unless we win the .... Europa Cup.
    I must say, I am shocked to find out that someone from Surbiton turned out to be a Man U fan.
    I qualify. I do not live anywhere near Manchester.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    edited May 2017
    SeanT said:

    TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.

    Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.

    Why? 44% is higher than any Tory leader got since Heath in 1970, it could have been far worse
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,869
    kle4 said:

    Poor Ed Miliband - he doesn't deserve to see Corbyn easily outperform him.

    Not bold enough

    Many of the Many have had enough

    The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher Policy is a step too far
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited May 2017
    #ToxicTories stealing money from old age pensioners in the south to send it to Scotland.

    Oh Theresa what have you done...
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Let me whisper this one: Has anyone baxtered this yet ?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    RobD said:

    OUT said:

    Large net and tranquilliser gun to PB Tory supporters homes please.

    :D
    OUTLIER KLAXON!!!!!!!
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    SeanT said:

    TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.

    Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.

    Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    SeanT said:

    TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.

    That would be demented - the whole point is that the Tories are making tough decisions on policies when Labour are living in fantasy land, if they just drop it wholesale they'll be pressured to drop half the manifesto eventually.

    They need to clarify it, and how they are addressing a problem when no one else is proposing to, and so minimise the damage.

    Take the hit, in exchange for a free hand to act in the area when they win.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    kyf_100 said:

    Floater said:

    kyf_100 said:

    chrisb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

    Got it in one.
    Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
    Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
    They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
    I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

    I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

    To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh thoughuni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
    Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.

    What would you prefer to call it? A death duty? A charge on any poor sod unlucky enough to lose their marbles? A mugging of grannies who've worked hard and saved all their lives? An assault on the small c conservative lower middle classes?

    Answers on the back of a postcard, please.
    Well, as it would have meant my wife's family sharing a 100k rather than the current 23K they seem to have come out ahead haven't they?

    A very strange tax which gives you more than you would currently get.

    Or do you see it as a tax reduction?

  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    NB This evening's main BBC news bulletin:

    Trump first headline
    Labour's Trident woes second
    No mention of dementia taxes
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Single figures!
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    I wonder what Eoin Clarke's reaction to this poll is though....

    image
    https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/488/485/485488.jpg
    LOL.

    This poll is peak Labour.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    edited May 2017
    I was a visionary. From four weeks ago.

    Why a 1997 style landslide or even a 1983 style landslide might not happen, but maybe a 2005 style majority of 66 could

    ....5) Whisper it very carefully, Mrs May might not actually be that popular
    First of all there’s the polling that shows her popularity is equally down to her not being Jeremy Corbyn nor would she be losing the majority of the Tory gains from the Lib Dems that her election strategist found, a PM with polling leads of 25% really shouldn’t be doing that.

    People compare her to Mrs Thatcher, but what has Mrs May really achieved that is comparable to Mrs Thatcher had prior to her 1983 and 1987 landslides? No war won, no massive reform of the UK, so far only a slogan, ‘Brexit means Brexit.’

    Plus Mrs May’s a crap campaigner, no wonder she’s frightened to meet real voters or to debate Corbyn, given her failure to consistently crush him at PMQs. Macavity May hid during the EU referendum, as PM she can’t hide during a general election campaign. Mrs May is a crap campaigner, this is a narrative I and others expect to develop, especially if she refuses to debate Corbyn and the other party leaders.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    If we can Brexit, we can Corbyn.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.

    What alternative do you propose?
    National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.
    Putting up general taxation?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    surbiton said:

    Let me whisper this one: Has anyone baxtered this yet ?

    Con 346, Lab 228, LD 6
    Majority 42
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    alex. said:

    Everyone seems (I think) to agree that the Tory policy (whether or not it is a long term solution) is a large improvement on the current position for those unfortunate enough to have to secure long term care in a home (can defer the costs until death, and an increase in the floor from £23k to £100k).

    From some angles it is, however worse for those needing care in the home. But how much does care in the home cost? It must, surely, be significantly lower than moving to a care home (which was quoted at £30k a year). And can be reduced further if relatives (those who lose out on a bit of their inheritance) help out. Even if it was, say, £10k a year, the dementia sufferer has to live quite a long time before the inheritance of those with large houses in the South are going to be massively affected.

    Dementia in the elderly normally gets worse.

    You may start out with home care, but you will usually end up with residential care.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    This is the day the polls turned...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    calum said:
    Question, does anyone actually make sure the kids eat these presumably healthy, free meals, rather than say pick at the bits they like and bin what they don't want? Genuine question, I know little of this policy and its one I like the sound of, but I have no idea if we know it actually works.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: Tory high command says tighter polls will actually help because it raises the risk of Corbyn as PM, an argument they've failed to land yet
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    kyf_100 said:

    You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

    You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

    How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?

    If your hypothetical person bought a two-up-two-down[1] in 1983 then it would have been for about £20K. Your hypothetical person is sitting on a tax-free unearned profit in excess of £400,000. A £450K house in the North East[2] would be detached, around 4-5 bedrooms with a garden surrounding all four sides and a drive.

    I posted *actual* house prices earlier today. They are here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017

    [1] At the time it would have been nearer two-up-three-or-four-down, with a front room, living room, kitchen and converted bathroom downstairs, with a small yard out the back. But that's me being unbearably pedantic.
    [2] Before @YorkCity kicks in, York and Harrogate are in Yorkshire GOR

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: David Davis says he's prepared to walk away from Brexit talks if EU won't compromise on money. Exclusive interview in Sunday Times

    The EU will be happy for a flounce out. It will only demonstrate that they have the upper hand when we're forced back to the table.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited May 2017

    kle4 said:

    Poor Ed Miliband - he doesn't deserve to see Corbyn easily outperform him.


    Many of the Many have had enough

    Indeed. As Cameron found out just months after winning a general election, people can just as easily take it all away again.

    The voters have had it up to here... They are in revolutionary mood... That's what Brexit was. A revolution. They could just as easily produce another one if pushed.

    Theresa May is a fool if not to understand this.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    I wonder what Eoin Clarke's reaction to this poll is though....

    image
    https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/488/485/485488.jpg
    LOL.

    This poll is peak Labour.
    Time to cash out some of my NOM.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,869
    murali_s said:

    I told the many PB Tories that the lead will be circa 10% this week and how right I am....

    Probably this is peak Labour but let's savour it!

    I predicted 44/35 but dont see it lasting unless TM is smoked out and continues to show how apalling she is.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Tory high command says tighter polls will actually help because it raises the risk of Corbyn as PM, an argument they've failed to land yet

    Jimmy Hill
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: Labour sources not close to Corbyn say anecdotally that Tory manifesto has driven a lot of doorstep chats back their way
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll

    Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)

    Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    TMay: You had one job.

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,869
    surbiton said:

    Let me whisper this one: Has anyone baxtered this yet ?

    TMICIPM
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Ishmael_Z said:


    They stay at home, and buy dementia care.

    Are you feeling alright?

    You choose to buy chocolate. You don't choose to get dementia. To compare them is ridiculous.
    Paying the local authority for services and calling it a contribution to care costs comes out of your pocket just like Council Tax.is it a tax? No. Is the distinction meaningful? Not really, unless you're talking about whether we should pool the risk of social care costs relating to illness.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    OUT said:

    chestnut said:

    Tories 9 ahead in the eye of the storm.

    The calm bit of the storm.
    They're going to walk this with a little bit of a tweak on care thresholds.

    In front by 9 and 12 when people are thinking their inheritances are going to be confiscated???

    This really could be brutal if they get the tweak right.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Wel crosby is going to have to start earning his money!!!
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    alex. said:

    Everyone seems (I think) to agree that the Tory policy (whether or not it is a long term solution) is a large improvement on the current position for those unfortunate enough to have to secure long term care in a home (can defer the costs until death, and an increase in the floor from £23k to £100k).

    From some angles it is, however worse for those needing care in the home. But how much does care in the home cost? It must, surely, be significantly lower than moving to a care home (which was quoted at £30k a year). And can be reduced further if relatives (those who lose out on a bit of their inheritance) help out. Even if it was, say, £10k a year, the dementia sufferer has to live quite a long time before the inheritance of those with large houses in the South are going to be massively affected.

    Some figures here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-39957879

    £16.70 per hour for home care it says so £6000 per year for one hour a day. I have no idea how many hours/day is usual.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.

    What alternative do you propose?
    National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.
    Putting up general taxation?
    I think we'd have to, so yes. I'd prefer to pay more tax as a young person in order to fund social care, rather than leave the burden to individual families.
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    SeanT said:

    OK DOUBTERS.

    Give me some respect. I said these policies were a dreadful example of big fucking hairy bollocks from the beginning. Right from the start. Right from the get-go.

    I was right. Sadly, sadly. I was right.

    HOW TO HALVE YOUR LEAD IN 48 HOURS, A SEMINAR BY THERESA MAY

    I'm surprised. But kudos to you. Red faces all round.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312

    I wonder what Eoin Clarke's reaction to this poll is though....

    image
    https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/488/485/485488.jpg
    LOL.

    This poll is peak Labour.
    Labour's last LEAD in an opinion poll was 26th April 2016!!!!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll

    Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)

    Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?
    Yes
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: BBC plotting to means test the free TV licence. See Sunday Times
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Freggles said:

    Corbyn on 35 even in an outlier with temporary effects is still a damning indictment

    lets not forget that people said polls would close when tories had a huge lead and people might be nervous of a huge majority.

    People will be more than nervous of what Corbyn would mean as pm.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: YouGov/Sunday Times
    On the changes to care funding 35% said they supported them, 40% they opposed them

    That doesn't suggest the labour surge is due solely to social care. The Tories have also only slipped by one point. I think this is polarisation to a two party fight. The Tory share is relatively firm but showing a little sign of buckling, it's all about labour support on the up. They are running out of votes to squeeze though......
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780

    Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.

    What alternative do you propose?
    National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.
    It's a LD policy too - but saying you want one is not really a policy, unless you say it will be paid for, and they have no idea how it will be as it admits in the manifesto (the LDs at least address how they intend to pay for initial increases in social care). The manifesto also says that it won't truly be in place even in 2022.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    The Tories are fucked and they have fucked themselves on this. I know what they were trying to do, I kid of see that the WFA and care home payment policies are possibly fairer than what we have now and I am sure they thought this would actually win votes, but the impression given is terrible. I can't see how they turn this round. Abandonment would be fatal to the strong and stable message, ploughing on will just force millions of potential Tory voters to either not bother or vote elsewhere.

    Corbyn won't win the election but May has basically ensured she will get a 2015 style result not a 100+ majority and the decimation of Labour.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    chestnut said:

    OUT said:

    chestnut said:

    Tories 9 ahead in the eye of the storm.

    The calm bit of the storm.
    They're going to walk this with a little bit of a tweak on care thresholds.

    In front by 9 and 12 when people are thinking their inheritances are going to be confiscated???

    This really could be brutal if they get the tweak right.
    Wouldn't tweaking a policy after the manifestos are published look even worse? Clarifying is one thing, but tweaking?
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    I wonder what Eoin Clarke's reaction to this poll is though....

    image
    https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/488/485/485488.jpg
    LOL.

    This poll is peak Labour.
    Labour's last LEAD in an opinion poll was 26th April 2016!!!!
    .....during this election campaign.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Blimey, panicking this early is a bit much.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    SeanT said:

    TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.

    Utter bollocks. She should do nothing of the sort.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited May 2017
    Ah, here we go:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/866031653315129348

    Now, what do we notice about the jump in the Labour vote? The Con figure has dropped only within MoE; the Lab increase is equal to the drop in the Ukip vote.

    YouGov's numbers are all over the place. Ukip from 6 to 3 to 6 and back to 3 again in the last four surveys. And the Conservatives have yo-yo'd as well - they were also on 44% twice last month.

    It's a mess. Does anyone know when ICM are next publishing?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    bobajobPB said:

    SeanT said:

    OK DOUBTERS.

    Give me some respect. I said these policies were a dreadful example of big fucking hairy bollocks from the beginning. Right from the start. Right from the get-go.

    I was right. Sadly, sadly. I was right.

    HOW TO HALVE YOUR LEAD IN 48 HOURS, A SEMINAR BY THERESA MAY

    I'm surprised. But kudos to you. Red faces all round.
    Hardly - plenty of people said there would be a poll hit, they just argue that panicking is not the answer and questioned how big a hit it would be.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    Will Mrs May become the shortest serving Tory leader since IDS?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    LOL! As PB goes mad, Betfair's not moved an inch.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    Floater said:


    Freggles said:

    Corbyn on 35 even in an outlier with temporary effects is still a damning indictment

    lets not forget that people said polls would close when tories had a huge lead and people might be nervous of a huge majority.

    People will be more than nervous of what Corbyn would mean as pm.
    People should be more nervous.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,869
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll

    Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)

    Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?
    PB Tories 3 days ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 30%?


    PB Tories 3 weeks ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 25%
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll

    Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)

    Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?
    I don't know. I was hoping you or @BlackRook could tell me. I'm going to have to Google RodCrosby, aren't I?... :(
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll

    Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)

    Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?
    NO
This discussion has been closed.