For those who think Labour could actually do well out of this care policy I suggest looking at betting on London seats. I've just taken the 7/2 that Ladbrokes are offering on Labour holding Ealing Central and Acton.
Everyone seems (I think) to agree that the Tory policy (whether or not it is a long term solution) is a large improvement on the current position for those unfortunate enough to have to secure long term care in a home (can defer the costs until death, and an increase in the floor from £23k to £100k).
From some angles it is, however worse for those needing care in the home. But how much does care in the home cost? It must, surely, be significantly lower than moving to a care home (which was quoted at £30k a year). And can be reduced further if relatives (those who lose out on a bit of their inheritance) help out. Even if it was, say, £10k a year, the dementia sufferer has to live quite a long time before the inheritance of those with large houses in the South are going to be massively affected.
Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.
What alternative do you propose?
National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.
Putting up general taxation?
I think we'd have to, so yes. I'd prefer to pay more tax as a young person in order to fund social care, rather than leave the burden to individual families.
Give me some respect. I said these policies were a dreadful example of big fucking hairy bollocks from the beginning. Right from the start. Right from the get-go.
I was right. Sadly, sadly. I was right.
HOW TO HALVE YOUR LEAD IN 48 HOURS, A SEMINAR BY THERESA MAY
I think the policy has some merit, but it is abundantly clear (foxhunting vote, immigration target, dementia tax, WFA for Scots) that May and her team may claim to understand ordinary voters but they sure as hell have no idea how to communicate with them. I expect some Northern Tory MP will be wheeled out over the next few days to show they "understand ordinary people".
I'm starting to think May really can fuck this up, which will make her by far the worse Tory leader in living memory.
@ShippersUnbound: Tory high command says tighter polls will actually help because it raises the risk of Corbyn as PM, an argument they've failed to land yet
PB Tories 3 days ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 30%?
PB Tories 3 weeks ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 25%
LOL!
Relax. Jeremy Corbyn will not never be PM!
One thing we all now know is that Teresa May is truly crap. Hapless and hopeless sums her up. The fact that she is going to lead us into negotiations with the EU is scary. F*cking scary!
I don't think they are. I think it's a major polling error. We'll find out in 19 days.
With UKIP unwinding it could be some of their voter could be returning back to Labour.
I pointed out several times everyone who assumed the bulk of 2015 Kippers were going to vote Tory in 2017 were making the mistake many Labour supports made between 2010 and 2015, that about 50% of 2010 Lib Dems would vote Labour in 2015.
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
If your hypothetical person bought a two-up-two-down[1] in 1983 then it would have been for about £20K. Your hypothetical person is sitting on a tax-free unearned profit in excess of £400,000. A £450K house in the North East[2] would be detached, around 4-5 bedrooms with a garden surrounding all four sides and a drive.
[1] At the time it would have been nearer two-up-three-or-four-down, with a front room, living room, kitchen and converted bathroom downstairs, with a small yard out the back. But that's me being unbearably pedantic. [2] Before @YorkCity kicks in, York and Harrogate are in Yorkshire GOR
You're looking at this from the wrong angle. I didn't ask how it plays out for _you_, I asked how it would look if you were that person, with the 450k home as your only major asset.
The answer probably isn't "well, I'm sitting on a 400k unearned asset, whoop-de-doo for me" the answer is probably "I grew up with nothing, worked hard all my life, now that Theresa May has come along and said she's going to take the house I raised my kids in, the house I wanted to leave to them, to pay for my old age, even though I've paid my taxes my entire life".
This is TERRIBLE for the Conservatives. And terrible with the kind of voters they should be winning over - older, lower-middle-class, small c conservative types.
@ShippersUnbound: Tory high command says tighter polls will actually help because it raises the risk of Corbyn as PM, an argument they've failed to land yet
It's coming.
They better fucking hurry up...Otherwise we will never get rid of corbyn and his disgusting band of merry men.
Will Mrs May become the shortest serving Tory leader since IDS?
Oh gawd not you as well..........the hysteria's contagious here. We've gone from a landslide to a 100 seat majority to a 70 seat majority to a 40 seat majority to a hung parliamnet to May been toppled, all in the space of four days.
Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.
What alternative do you propose?
National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.
Putting up general taxation?
I think we'd have to, so yes. I'd prefer to pay more tax as a young person in order to fund social care, rather than leave the burden to individual families.
And what would you bet that the reaction to such a proposal would be just as toxic and negative? It's a classic 'people want x but won't pay for it' situation. That's presumably why Labour for one say it could be paid a number of ways, without committing to their preferred way, for fear of people disagreeing. The LDs can be more realistic since no one but a handful will read it anyway.
For those who think Labour could actually do well out of this care policy I suggest looking at betting on London seats. I've just taken the 7/2 that Ladbrokes are offering on Labour holding Ealing Central and Acton.
7/2 on a Labour hold in Westminster North with Ladbrokes.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Will Mrs May become the shortest serving Tory leader since IDS?
Oh gawd not you as well..........the hysteria's contagious here. We've gone from a landslide to a 100 seat majority to a 70 seat majority to a 40 seat majority to a hung parliamnet to May been toppled, all in the space of four days.
WTF????? Are there no sane people here??
TSE is trolling.
The broiling mood keeps the threads moving. Consistency is for the uninteresting!
@ShippersUnbound: YouGov/Sunday Times On the changes to care funding 35% said they supported them, 40% they opposed them
That doesn't suggest the labour surge is due solely to social care. The Tories have also only slipped by one point. I think this is polarisation to a two party fight. The Tory share is relatively firm but showing a little sign of buckling, it's all about labour support on the up. They are running out of votes to squeeze though......
the lib dem and green vote is being clearly squeezed. Farron is toast. we are back to two party politics . TMIPM and what she will achieve on a june 8 is keeping corbyn as LOTO and will prevent a break away centre party which is the biggest threat to tory rule. the ones who should be worried tonight are lib dems , they are finished . time for them to pack up and go home . how will they justify their presence in HoL if they have sub 5 MPs?
I don't think they are. I think it's a major polling error. We'll find out in 19 days.
With UKIP unwinding it could be some of their voter could be returning back to Labour.
I pointed out several times everyone who assumed the bulk of 2015 Kippers were going to vote Tory in 2017 were making the mistake many Labour supports made between 2010 and 2015, that about 50% of 2010 Lib Dems would vote Labour in 2015.
I think we have to get used to the idea that 35% in a two party shootout (UK-wide) is a poor result. 45/35 is a big victory for May.
@ShippersUnbound: Tory high command says tighter polls will actually help because it raises the risk of Corbyn as PM, an argument they've failed to land yet
It's coming.
They better fucking hurry up...Otherwise we will never get rid of corbyn and his disgusting band of merry men.
The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.
Got it in one.
Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
More fundamentally:
The taxpayer can't afford to pay for everyone
And society has a duty to look after those less fortunate
Re the trio of Thersea May, Nick Timothy, and Fiona Hill - Cohen has already written about the delusions of May's advisors in regard to Brexit. Apparently according to one PBer on heard the FT reported that it's Timothy that was responsible for this social care policy.
You choose to buy chocolate. You don't choose to get dementia. To compare them is ridiculous. Paying the local authority for services and calling it a contribution to care costs comes out of your pocket just like Council Tax.is it a tax? No. Is the distinction meaningful? Not really, unless you're talking about whether we should pool the risk of social care costs relating to illness.
Why do you think paying for home care equates to paying the local authority for services? LAs do not, AIUI, run home-care businesses on the side. You contract for home care just as you contract to have your car repaired (and you don't choose to have your car in need of repair), and you get more or less of a contribution to the cost depending on who gets elected.
But thanks for illuminating why the "dementia tax" slur sticks.
The majority of the public dislike the term 'dementia tax'
However, despite opposition to the proposals, the public are not convinced that the moniker some have placed on the policy – the “Dementia Tax” – is fair; 37% think it is fair to call the policy the “Dementia Tax”, compared to 39% who think it’s unfair.
@ShippersUnbound: One of Corbyn's closest aides tells Labour candidates to tell voters about the manifesto not the leader. Leaked recording in Sunday Times
PB Tories 3 days ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 30%?
PB Tories 3 weeks ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 25%
It's a fair point - Labour are up closer to mid 30 than low 30 with everyone now I believe. Either its a polling disaster, or it is real, they will outdo poor Ed M.
Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.
There is a difference between liking something and caring enough about something that you change your vote on the back of a reaction one way or another to something.
An example is rail nationalisation. A lot of people want it, but typically transport only scores 3% or so when people are asked to name their top three issues.
It's pensioners who are the people who are really going to care enough to change their vote if the perception sticks that the Conservatives are really having a go at pensioners. Probably also those approaching the ever receding state pension age (eg. in the case of WASPI women)
Ah, but how many of those who really care are in a position to make a difference to the election?
Your average home in the Midlands is worth substantially less than £200,000. Most of that value would be preserved. In the North and Wales, it's less than that.
The people most likely to be affected by this policy are, surprise surprise, wealthy homeowners and their heirs in Southern England, who (a) mostly inhabit safe seats and (b) can only rescue themselves from this policy by voting for a socialist, whom they must suspect would tax the crap out of them in the end, whatever he says to get their vote.
The care policy could have a price, but it's liable to be modest, and to be concentrated disproportionately in those constituencies where it will do the least amount of harm. The policy may simply have the effect of making the Conservatives' voter distribution more efficient, rather than depriving them of any meaningful number of MPs.
In London, where houses are worth a lot, it will help the LibDems.
Remove triple lock Care threshold WFA removal WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
I don't know. I was hoping you or @BlackRook could tell me. I'm going to have to Google RodCrosby, aren't I?...
I think that Labour could end up doing that well given a sufficiently tight squeeze on the also-ran parties, but the Tories won't do that badly. With Ukip where they are, it implies either that nearly as many 2015 Kippers are voting for Labour as for the Conservatives; or that the Ukip-Tory conversation rate remains very solid, but that a significant number (by which I mean, perhaps as many as a million) 2015 Tories are now planning on voting for Labour.
No significant proportion of the 38% who weren't willing to abandon Cameron for an unthreatening figure like Ed Miliband are now going to think that it's a marvellous idea to put Jeremy Corbyn in 10 Downing St. It make absolutely no sense.
Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.
What alternative do you propose?
National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.
Putting up general taxation?
I think we'd have to, so yes. I'd prefer to pay more tax as a young person in order to fund social care, rather than leave the burden to individual families.
And what would you bet that the reaction to such a proposal would be just as toxic and negative? It's a classic 'people want x but won't pay for it' situation. That's presumably why Labour for one say it could be paid a number of ways, without committing to their preferred way, for fear of people disagreeing. The LDs can be more realistic since no one but a handful will read it anyway.
I think (sadly) I agree with you.
The money required to run the National Care Service is just too daunting.
Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.
What alternative do you propose?
National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.
Putting up general taxation?
I think we'd have to, so yes. I'd prefer to pay more tax as a young person in order to fund social care, rather than leave the burden to individual families.
And what would you bet that the reaction to such a proposal would be just as toxic and negative? It's a classic 'people want x but won't pay for it' situation. That's presumably why Labour for one say it could be paid a number of ways, without committing to their preferred way, for fear of people disagreeing. The LDs can be more realistic since no one but a handful will read it anyway.
I'm talking about what I'd prefer, not necessarily what the public would like. In reality, both policies would be unpopular, although the idea of a National Care Service may well be less unpopular than the May policy.
In discussions last week the veracity of the polls were questioned, it being difficult to reconcile Corbyn-hatred with them. Does PB now think that this is not the case and that the polls are now correct?
"This is still consistent with a Tory share of 45-46% pending more polling. And that is a healthy majority unless all the Others collapse and Labour get 40%."
The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.
Got it in one.
Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.
Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.
They only have to elect Labour to keep it.
I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.
More fundamentally:
The taxpayer can't afford to pay for everyone
And society has a duty to look after those less fortunate
This has to be how it is defended. It's a tough line to sell on such an emotional policy, and there will be heartbreaking instances of the policy being outright dickish to some people, but in the overall, is that principle sound? Is it sound if tweaked a little? Is it the best immediate option we have, outside of 'National Care Service, paid for by TBD'?
"This is still consistent with a Tory share of 45-46% pending more polling. And that is a healthy majority unless all the Others collapse and Labour get 40%."
Will Mrs May become the shortest serving Tory leader since IDS?
Oh gawd not you as well..........the hysteria's contagious here. We've gone from a landslide to a 100 seat majority to a 70 seat majority to a 40 seat majority to a hung parliamnet to May been toppled, all in the space of four days.
WTF????? Are there no sane people here??
Another one who doesn't know his political history.
TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.
PB Tories 3 days ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 30%?
PB Tories 3 weeks ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 25%
It's a fair point - Labour are up closer to mid 30 than low 30 with everyone now I believe. Either its a polling disaster, or it is real, they will outdo poor Ed M.
ELBOW now up to eight polls with fieldwork end-dates 15th to 21st:
the problem for Labour now is their vote is hopelessly inefficient and they are stacking up votes where they don't need them . it's why milibland lost and it's why TM will still get a big majority . plus there are three weeks now to hammer home the Corbyn threat to the nation
It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
"This is still consistent with a Tory share of 45-46% pending more polling. And that is a healthy majority unless all the Others collapse and Labour get 40%."
Remove triple lock Care threshold WFA removal WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.
What alternative do you propose?
National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.
Putting up general taxation?
I think we'd have to, so yes. I'd prefer to pay more tax as a young person in order to fund social care, rather than leave the burden to individual families.
And what would you bet that the reaction to such a proposal would be just as toxic and negative? It's a classic 'people want x but won't pay for it' situation. That's presumably why Labour for one say it could be paid a number of ways, without committing to their preferred way, for fear of people disagreeing. The LDs can be more realistic since no one but a handful will read it anyway.
I'm talking about what I'd prefer, not necessarily what the public would like. In reality, both policies would be unpopular, although the idea of a National Care Service may well be less unpopular than the May policy.
I'm sure it will be more popular, and long term it might be the best option. But I don't see how it is an either/or really. The Tories are offering a solution now, flawed as it might be. But people will still moan about the cost.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Exactly. May will win, but she will win in such a way as to give the hard left hope for 2022, and even if they don't win she has shifted the overton window to the left and left those of us of a socially liberal but economically dry position with no home to go to. Previously I was going to hold my nose and vote for May, now I think I'll be abstaining.
Can someone Baxter this, please. I'm too depressed by the fact I was completely right.
Posted downthread:
Con 346, Lab 228, LD 6 Majority 42
Ignore Baxter, the Tories are getting their biggest swing in the North, the Midlands, Wales and Scotland it is London and the South where Corbyn is up but he cannot win many new seats there
@ShippersUnbound: One of Corbyn's closest aides tells Labour candidates to tell voters about the manifesto not the leader. Leaked recording in Sunday Times
Because thats what Corbynism is all about the Many not the Few
The Policies not the Man
When will PB Tories get it when Lab hits 40% *(I dont think they will BTW)
Still predicting a majority around 90-110. Nothing that has occurred tonight has made me change my mind on that.
It's the mid campaign wobble. Tories still maintain a substantial lead (even on yougov figures) in the danger zone of manifesto launch season.
I might be wrong, but nothing I'm seeing gives me concern yet. Maybe if we see the lead down to 4-5% in a week's time, but otherwise, I'm not shifting my forecast.
Labour up and Conservative down is the trend... The Big Mo is with Jezza!
I think next week we'll see Lab maybe getting within 5% of Con in one or two polls... And then it'll gradually move back to TM in the final stages.
She'll get over the line with a small (30-40) seat majority but Labour will be well and truly in the game for 2022 and TM will be damaged by the relative failure of a small majority and an election that many will view a waste of time.
Doesn't seem to have shifted the odds at William Hill.
Looks like 35% is Labour's maximum, but we also know the Tories can go a lot higher than 44-46%.
FFS, calm down, despondent Tories. The Tories have ridden this out. Let's see how Labour's polling figures stand up when their manifesto's lunatic spending pledges translate into reality, and the Mail and the Sun nail Corbyn and McDonnell over th IRA.
@murali_s It's terrifying how utterly dire Britain's political class are. Both May and Corbyn are walking disasters in regard to the Brexit negotiations.
TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at
Right my sober head is judging this thusly. The Tory vote is pretty solid, it's dropped from the high 40s but doesn't show any sign of pitching too far below 45. It's labour that are gaining but not because voters are deserting May. This is simple coalescing around the anti Tory option, the only anti Tory option. It was always going to happen. 20 point leads? If you're anti Tory that is terrifying and it drives you to Labour. The only way this gets any closer is of Tory voters start to peel off. Trident should knock labour back a point or two, let's see what the Tories have in store for the coming fortnight.
TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
If the Tories get 45-46% they will get a 100+ majority.
Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.
What alternative do you propose?
National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.
Putting up general taxation?
I think we'd have to, so yes. I'd prefer to pay more tax as a young person in order to fund social care, rather than leave the burden to individual families.
And what would you bet that the reaction to such a proposal would be just as toxic and negative? It's a classic 'people want x but won't pay for it' situation. That's presumably why Labour for one say it could be paid a number of ways, without committing to their preferred way, for fear of people disagreeing. The LDs can be more realistic since no one but a handful will read it anyway.
I'm talking about what I'd prefer, not necessarily what the public would like. In reality, both policies would be unpopular, although the idea of a National Care Service may well be less unpopular than the May policy.
The numbers on a National Care Service are horrific though. It's 5p on income tax for everyone. 25%, 45% and 50% rates. Maybe 3p on income tax and 4p on Employer NI to try and hide it a little.
If anyone thinks that this policy has gone down badly, anyone proposing seriously a 5p rise in income tax would be shot down completely.
Who was it that said politics was the art of the possible?
It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
Remove triple lock Care threshold WFA removal WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
Question now is where is Labour's ceiling? Does the social care/winter payment stuff open things up again for them? One thing is for sure, for them to go any higher they need to start converting Tory voters.
Is Tory wobble day to be this year's 'day the polls turned'?
Other question, what have the Tories got to take attention away from this as we enter the final stages? And don't say Corbyn and the IRA - it's been done, it's played, I dislike him for it, but people are flocking back to Labour either because they like his policies or they fear the Tories, personal info on him won't sway the polls, so if Labour lose big it'll be despite the polls again.
Comments
The irony would be Corbyn loses the election on the share of the vote Blair got in 2005.
That's what makes May popular with the ex-Lab North/Midlands.
I think the policy has some merit, but it is abundantly clear (foxhunting vote, immigration target, dementia tax, WFA for Scots) that May and her team may claim to understand ordinary voters but they sure as hell have no idea how to communicate with them. I expect some Northern Tory MP will be wheeled out over the next few days to show they "understand ordinary people".
I'm starting to think May really can fuck this up, which will make her by far the worse Tory leader in living memory.
Tories 46%
Labour 34%
LD 8%
UKIP 3% (All post manifesto)
https://mobile.twitter.com/Survation/status/866035811719954433
Con 346, Lab 228, LD 6
Majority 42
Relax. Jeremy Corbyn will not never be PM!
One thing we all now know is that Teresa May is truly crap. Hapless and hopeless sums her up. The fact that she is going to lead us into negotiations with the EU is scary. F*cking scary!
I pointed out several times everyone who assumed the bulk of 2015 Kippers were going to vote Tory in 2017 were making the mistake many Labour supports made between 2010 and 2015, that about 50% of 2010 Lib Dems would vote Labour in 2015.
Or posting nine smiling Gordon Browns
The answer probably isn't "well, I'm sitting on a 400k unearned asset, whoop-de-doo for me" the answer is probably "I grew up with nothing, worked hard all my life, now that Theresa May has come along and said she's going to take the house I raised my kids in, the house I wanted to leave to them, to pay for my old age, even though I've paid my taxes my entire life".
This is TERRIBLE for the Conservatives. And terrible with the kind of voters they should be winning over - older, lower-middle-class, small c conservative types.
WTF????? Are there no sane people here??
CON 46%; LAB 34%; LD 8%; UKIP 3%; Others 8%
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
The broiling mood keeps the threads moving. Consistency is for the uninteresting!
YG = OUTLIER!!!
The taxpayer can't afford to pay for everyone
And society has a duty to look after those less fortunate
But thanks for illuminating why the "dementia tax" slur sticks.
However, despite opposition to the proposals, the public are not convinced that the moniker some have placed on the policy – the “Dementia Tax” – is fair; 37% think it is fair to call the policy the “Dementia Tax”, compared to 39% who think it’s unfair.
(only based on the YouGov/Survation tonight)
https://goo.gl/7cTbAf
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
Corbyn great as underdog as proved by both leadership elections
No significant proportion of the 38% who weren't willing to abandon Cameron for an unthreatening figure like Ed Miliband are now going to think that it's a marvellous idea to put Jeremy Corbyn in 10 Downing St. It make absolutely no sense.
The money required to run the National Care Service is just too daunting.
In discussions last week the veracity of the polls were questioned, it being difficult to reconcile Corbyn-hatred with them. Does PB now think that this is not the case and that the polls are now correct?
"This is still consistent with a Tory share of 45-46% pending more polling. And that is a healthy majority unless all the Others collapse and Labour get 40%."
Marvellous.
The Tory party has only two moods.
Complacency and Panic.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
Though perhaps we shouldn't be surprised as Corbyn ran two surprisingly good leadership campaigns.
Con 46.25 (-0.95)
Lab 33.00 (+3.00)
LD 7.75 (-1.25)
UKIP 4.63 (-0.67)
Lead 13.25 (-3.95)
Told you it would be interesting
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
The Policies not the Man
When will PB Tories get it when Lab hits 40% *(I dont think they will BTW)
Listen to a TM speach Me My Me Me
Listen to JC you us you the many us you
It's the mid campaign wobble. Tories still maintain a substantial lead (even on yougov figures) in the danger zone of manifesto launch season.
I might be wrong, but nothing I'm seeing gives me concern yet. Maybe if we see the lead down to 4-5% in a week's time, but otherwise, I'm not shifting my forecast.
I think next week we'll see Lab maybe getting within 5% of Con in one or two polls... And then it'll gradually move back to TM in the final stages.
She'll get over the line with a small (30-40) seat majority but Labour will be well and truly in the game for 2022 and TM will be damaged by the relative failure of a small majority and an election that many will view a waste of time.
Looks like 35% is Labour's maximum, but we also know the Tories can go a lot higher than 44-46%.
FFS, calm down, despondent Tories. The Tories have ridden this out. Let's see how Labour's polling figures stand up when their manifesto's lunatic spending pledges translate into reality, and the Mail and the Sun nail Corbyn and McDonnell over th IRA.
Corbyn will not get 35% on June 8th.
Trident should knock labour back a point or two, let's see what the Tories have in store for the coming fortnight.
If anyone thinks that this policy has gone down badly, anyone proposing seriously a 5p rise in income tax would be shot down completely.
Who was it that said politics was the art of the possible?
Jeremy Corbyn = Liverpool
2017 = Istanbul 2005
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/865664454616338432
Other question, what have the Tories got to take attention away from this as we enter the final stages? And don't say Corbyn and the IRA - it's been done, it's played, I dislike him for it, but people are flocking back to Labour either because they like his policies or they fear the Tories, personal info on him won't sway the polls, so if Labour lose big it'll be despite the polls again.