TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.
Its called honesty and it is rather refreshing. The bottom line is that it is the right thing to do and she has (quite rightly) calculated that she will win a good majority even if this one policy is initially unpopular.
The alternative would have been to say nothing and then introduce it afterwards with all the outrage about it not having been in the manifesto and how you can't trust the Tories.
Personally I think it is a masterstroke.
Who sn.
Which is why people hate politicians, much better to be honest and deal with something that's been kicked down the road for far too long.
After all this furore we're still on 46%, maybe the people can cope with the occasional dose of honesty.
The surveys above preceed the social care furore.
Jezza has b
When has May sneered at deplorables?
She has avoided them. Did you see my pm to you earlier?
200 deliveries or canvassing for Clegg next weekend still. He's still in desperate trouble
Against who though ?
Who knows. My calculations say Labour
I say the Blue Meanies.
You can take both the 4/1 on Labour and the 8/1 on the Tories and still win.
2015 results:
Liberal Democrat 22,215 Labour 19,862 Conservative 7,544 UKIP 3,575
If the Lib Dems really are polling at 7-8% and mostly from Labour switchers, that 4/1 looks fantastic, especially if you can stick a few quid on the Conservatives as well as an insurance bet.
I tipped the Tories at 16/1 on here, and someone else tipped Labour at 25/1.
Every Tory tactical for Clegg in 2015 I know has gone back to the blue meanies.
I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
It'd f*ck up "strong and stable" big time though.
If TM backtracks on this, I'll be selling the tories on the spreads.
Changing her mind on this would completely screw up her messaging.
No. It has to be Brexit means brexit. No questions.
Your house is at risk.
Trust Mother Theresa.
(Shut up and vote conservative).
Yes, backtracking on this wouldn't exactly look strong and stable.
TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
Totally disagree. She needs to stick to the policies and dare all those rich, selfish homeowners in the south of England to vote for Jeremy Corbyn.
Yep, and she needs to get every Tory doing TV and radio tomorrow to be properly briefed and defend it to the hilt.
And she has the Brillo interview on Monday.
Too late. It is over. She will need to retract the whole thing by Wednesday imho. And give some waffle about a thorough review of the whole thing etc etc.
I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
It's wide open for childish taunts and rhymes. Unfair, mean, but if they catch on... things like: "Hey, hey, Theresa May, She's gonna take Gran's house away.
Theresa May, strong and stable, Took the food from the childrens' table"
Really obvious stuff, and absolutely unnecessary. Maggie would probably have played it by keeping quiet at election time and maybe saying "we will need to examine options for social care". Then, six months afterwards, leaking out scare stories of costs and people losing all down to £23k at the moment. Then, a few months later, leaking harsher proposals than intended, before coming out with the proper ones (more thought out than these ones).
Executive summary: everyone now agrees that Cameron and Osborne weren't so bad at this politics malarkey after all, right?
I'm going weak and wibbly with Corbyn going within 9 points. The third party squeeze is well and truly on in the East Midlands now
Third party squeeze is right, and was of course happening before the latest hysteria. It's an oddity, certainly. You can see why nutty Green extreme lefties might head Corbynwards, but why aren't the LibDems benefiting from sane Labour supporters moving their way? It's mysterious.
(a. Tim Farron (b. The LDs are the stop-Brexit party and literally nothing else.
How do PBers who expect to receive a substantial inheritance and don't want to lose any of it to care home expenses think the costs of care should be funded?
By the way, I object to the view of some on this site that anyone who doesn't own a home outright by the time they retire is by definition feckless, useless and lazy. The people who provide frontline care to other people's parents in care homes are unlikely to earn the type of money that would allow them to ever own £500k+ homes.
I agree that the presentation of this policy has been mishandled but there seems to be a lot of wilful misunderstanding and/or ignorance about care funding on this site.
I looked after my father in my own home in the early stages of his vascular dementia but it got to the point where I could no longer look after him safely at home and had to look at the options for residential care.
I'm completely baffled - everyone's inheritance is already at risk to residential care home fees - down to just £23k. Now £100k will be protected.
As for in-home care costs - how much are they likely to be - the Council popping in for 15 mins twice a day - the cost will be absolute peanuts compared to the value of the home.
And anyone remotely wealthy will surely be using a private care agency anyway.
Is it really the case that there are lots of people sitting in homes worth £300k / £400k / £500k and they are relying on Council care for 15 mins twice a day?
Surely they'll end up paying anyway by going to a private care agency for a decent service to suit their needs. If they don't have the income to pay for it then they'll do an equity release. The care cost will be peanuts in comparison to the value of their home.
A lot of people won't know the current situation (I didn't until today). There is a possibility t
These overreacting Tories are pushing me closer every minute to a Tory vote for the first time ever.
'These overreacting Tories are pushing me closer every minute to a Tory vote for the first time ever.'
I thought your advice was 'laugh and move on'?
I also said consistency was for the boring (or something).
And I meant general Tory reaction, not merely PB Tory reaction.
The key is not to take politics too seriously, while simultaneously being far too interested and taking it too seriously. Tough line.
Fair point. My point, which was orthogonal to yours instead of rebuttal, is that house prices have changed a lot over the past years.
I must confess I had to look orthagonal up!
I guess the received wisdom on here is that the people who hate the "dementia tax" are the well n the lie of 'cradle to grave' in exchange for a life of taxation and to find that they are suddenly expected to give up 50-90% of their assets to pay for their medical bills, leaving their kids in a not much better position than they started out in themselves.
They are the savers and the small c conservative penny pinchers, and they will have friends and acquaintances who have lived more recklessly and will have 100k or less who will still be covered and they will look at this policy and go "that's the Tories for you, you can't win with them, they just aren't for people like you or me".
You may argue "oh, but you were potentially going to lose everyting down to your last 23k before" but the fact is most people don't read the fine print, they just hear DEMENTIA TAX which is like winning the reverse-lottery on top of an already terrifying and dehumanising condition.
This is an utter turkey, a vote loser of the highest order. And it's a vote loser where the Tories need it most - with older, lower middle class voters whose main asset is their house.
Excellent post .I live in York a small three bed semi detached is ,220 to ,250 k.Any threat to that in any way is scary in some cases more than Corbyn.
But Corbyn thinks that property is basically theft, and that we should all just accept what the council gives us. Let's all remember what the alternative looks like for a minute, my parents' generation can certainly remember it.
I remember the 70 and 80's all to well.
Getting on a bus to go down to Peckham to play games with the South London Warlords and the rubbish piled up on the common.
Remarkably the Con share rather than lead is stiĺl holding up at a rate better than either Blair or Thatcher got. Who is the psephologist that was always quoted here many years ago saying look at the share rather than the lead.
The change in lead is from Labour attracting more and more not the Tories falling.
Labour under Corbyn doing much better than Miliband and the Tories doing much better under May than either Blair or Thatcher got just doesn't smell right to me. Something is wrong here.
Executive summary: everyone now agrees that Cameron and Osborne weren't so bad at this politics malarkey after all, right?
I'm going weak and wibbly with Corbyn going within 9 points. The third party squeeze is well and truly on in the East Midlands now
Third party squeeze is right, and was of course happening before the latest hysteria. It's an oddity, certainly. You can see why nutty Green extreme lefties might head Corbynwards, but why aren't the LibDems benefiting from sane Labour supporters moving their way? It's mysterious.
They are in LibDem/Tory marginals. But there are relatively few of these so the effect doesn't show up in LibDem national share numbers. I suspect in Labour/Tory marginals, LibDems are moving heavily to Labour and that does show up in the national numbers.
I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
Your house was already taken if you had residential care and you were left with just £23k now you get £100k and Osborne took your house out of Inheritance tax for everyone with a property worth less than £1 million
80% of people receiving Social Care do not receive residential care. They get care at home. There home was 100% safe till Thursday.
And how much is the average in-home care cost?
30 mins per day @ approx £10 per hour would be approx £5 per day or just under £2k per year.
Compared to a home worth £200k / £300k / £400k etc.
WFA, Pensions Triple Lock and Social Care - the Tories actively decided to upset some of their core elderly vote. Now, people are not irrational, and there will be plenty of non-stupid people around May and co, so you have to assume they knew each of those policies will be unpopular with that group.
So they must assume the rest of the offer, including leadership, will be popular enough to overcome that, and that it is a good idea for governance to announce these things now rather than hide them, or they think it will be popular enough with others to make up for it. It simply makes no sense otherwise, as they'd not assume these would be popular with that core vote.
Now, do people dislike Corbyn enough to ensure May still wins comfortably? It would appear so, but perhaps they miscalculated how much people dislike Corbyn, and so it has caused more of an issue that they thought. Nevertheless, they knew it was going to be unpopular and included it anyway, and if we think it a good policy, that honesty should be applauded even if the presentation is bad. If it is a bad policy, obviously it was a foolish move.
I think you are discounting the possibility that it really is a combination of both bad policies and politics.
On Social care I can see that being the case, particularly if it unravels a bit, but Pensions Lock and WFA both seem good policies to me, particularly the former, and although the latter has caused plenty of comment, neither have caused as much of a stink, so it seems part of a deliberate policy decision to make these choices which hit the elderly vote, because there's no better time for them to do so.
Executive summary: everyone now agrees that Cameron and Osborne weren't so bad at this politics malarkey after all, right?
I'm going weak and wibbly with Corbyn going within 9 points. The third party squeeze is well and truly on in the East Midlands now
Third party squeeze is right, and was of course happening before the latest hysteria. It's an oddity, certainly. You can see why nutty Green extreme lefties might head Corbynwards, but why aren't the LibDems benefiting from sane Labour supporters moving their way? It's mysterious.
If it's any consolation, Richard, this sane Labour voter moved that way today. Ballot paper in the post.
We do agree I'm sane, no?
I'm afraid your encouraging estimate of Labour seats is starting to look a shade undercooked - good for my betting, but otherwise not so good at all. No longer win/win I'm afraid.
For anyone getting enthusiastic about Labour , a quarter of their 34% on Survation is made up of 'Others/Did Not Votes.'
It is why I am predicting huuuge polling miss.
OTOH one of Corbyn's seeking points was he would explictly attract DNVs sooooo maybe?
It's not a matter of whether or not Corbyn is attractive to non-voters. It's a matter of whether the non-voters become voters on June 8th.
Non-voters are called non-voters for a reason. They don't vote. There's no particular reason to suppose that most of them won't continue in their habit of not voting. Saying you'll vote in a survey and actually dragging yourself down the polling station when you've had a long day at work and the baby's just been sick down your pullover and there's dinner to be got ready and there's something good on the telly tonight and the polling station's a mile down the road and it's pissing it down outside and you're feeling tired and your back's hurting and that Mrs May isn't so bad really and your vote won't change the outcome and they're all the same and voting never makes any difference to anything really and do you really want to bother after all is a different matter.
Plenty of Tory bedwetting on here tonight. Just the same as at this stage in 2015.
The polls were always going to tighten from the absurd 25%+ leads of a few weeks ago. They generally do in election campaigns, even in 1997. It was ever thus.
Wake me up on 9th June when the same bedwetters are pulling an all-nighter on here and cracking open the bubbly and waxing lyrical about mother Theresa.
TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
Totally disagree. She needs to stick to the policies and dare all those rich, selfish homeowners in the south of England to vote for Jeremy Corbyn.
Yep, and she needs to get every Tory doing TV and radio tomorrow to be properly briefed and defend it to the hilt.
And she has the Brillo interview on Monday.
Too late. It is over. She will need to retract the whole thing by Wednesday imho. And give some waffle about a thorough review of the whole thing etc etc.
I think the U-turn will be on WFA for the North. They won't do it on this, but they will make WFA universal in the North based in some climate data or other.
Possiblly a sensible policy but absolutely shit politics. TMay in contrast to the posh boys was supposed to understand provincial Tory sensibilities.. Hahaha.
Really disappointed. Leaving your house to your kids is an atavistic Con instinct and this drives a coach and horses through it. Disavow it tomorrow and sack the people resp
I am saying this proposal is better than what exists at the moment for dementia sufferers who live in residential homes.
I say this from the experience of watching my mother decline & die from Parkison's dementia over 5 years in homes for which her family paid all the bills.
All I am asking you or kyf to do is explain what your policy is, and what it costs.
As far as I can tell, the view is that people like your mother should bear the brunt, and any changes should somehow be slipped through on the sly, post-election.
It is a horrible thing that old people, at their most vulnerable and fearful and ill, should pay for their care costs....
Why did we think its reasonable to save a premature, non sentient foetus months from delivery who will likely spend the rest of their life with profound, debilitating illness at full cost...but let someone who has worked and contributed all their life face financial ruin because they have drawn the dementia bullet??
We could either euthanise our oldies or collectively work out a fair system that cares for them...
If its a choice over resources....I'd personally euthanise the premature, horribly disabled babies first before they become aware of life before our oldies...but thats me...
The truth is the Tories will be secretly pleased about these recent polls showing a smaller lead because it means there won't be any complacency from their supporters on polling day, and it will help to keep turnout up as well.
Tweak sensibly, win by 20.
What would your proposed tweak be? Increasing the exemption?
Yes, and setting the WFP means test level a bit higher than pension credit. They're awful decisions for the integrity and intelligent running of the systems, but in terms of annilihating the opposition and placating the mood of the average person they might be worthwhile measures.
The 80's Tory goverment were past masters at transitioning spending restraint in. No immediate hit, just slow but steady erosion by inflation.
I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
Your house was already taken if you had residential care and you were left with just £23k now you get £100k and Osborne took your house out of Inheritance tax for everyone with a property worth less than £1 million
Re iht 1m = Only if you have kids and leave the house to them. it's 850k in total this year rising by 50k pa over next few years
Through married couples allowance of £175 000 each added to the £325 000 threshold you get to a million
Only from 2020.
It's actually an extra "homes allowance" but it's only £100k from April 2017. Rises by £25k per year until reaches £175k in April 2020.
House prices *trebled* from 1995 to 2007. That's equivalent to a 10% return pa compound for twelve years in succession. Plus it's not taxed as profit, whereas your hypothetical share portfolio would attract tax.
Admittedly it's peak-to-trough, but it's illustrative: things really did change, and the distortion does affect things.
I don't think you should denigrate the 10% figure as being unrepresentative, actually - on the Nationwide house price calculator, that was also the return over the 30 year period from 1977 to 2017.
A lot of people won't know the current situation (I didn't until today). There is a possibility that 'they will take your house' catches on, but if that is so, and the opposition push it, it will be cynical bullshit while they still haven't' explained how their own plan would work, while the Tories are trying to grasp the nettle. There may well be more complicated issues with their plans which are not part of why most people are objecting, so in fact the hysteria is doing a disservice even to scrutiny of this policy, as people react to what they think it is doing, not its true problems.
These overreacting Tories are pushing me closer every minute to a Tory vote for the first time ever.
'These overreacting Tories are pushing me closer every minute to a Tory vote for the first time ever.'
I thought your advice was 'laugh and move on'?
I also said consistency was for the boring (or something).
And I meant general Tory reaction, not merely PB Tory reaction.
Oh OK. Lol. I'm off to bed, I've had enough of all this excitement for one day.
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.
Its called honesty and it is rather refreshing. The bottom line is that it is the right thing to do and she has (quite rightly) calculated that she will win a good majority even if this one policy is initially unpopular.
The alternative would have been to say nothing and then introduce it afterwards with all the outrage about it not having been in the manifesto and how you can't trust the Tories.
Personally I think it is a masterstroke.
Who said say nothing? It would be easy to just put one or two lines in "we will seek to reform social care and fully fund it by the end of 2022".
That's literally all they needed and they could have just kept the plans secret until after the election.
Which is why people hate politicians, much better to be honest and deal with something that's been kicked down the road for far too long.
After all this furore we're still on 46%, maybe the people can cope with the occasional dose of honesty.
The surveys above preceed the social care furore.
Jezza has been running a much slicker campaign than tyhe Tories. Jezza is Trump, full of ridiculous unsustainable policies, campaigning at rallies rather than conventionally. May is Hillary, sneering at tbe deplorables and with a whiff of entitlement. Voters dont like being taken for granted.
The Survation 46% was after the manifesto launches.
I'd say it was the Islingtonites doing the sneering, Mrs May is aiming squarely at Middle Britain.
TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.
Its called honesty and it is rather refreshing. The bottom line is that it is the right thing to do and she has (quite rightly) calculated that she will win a good majority even if this one policy is initially unpopular.
The alternative would have been to say nothing and then introduce it afterwards with all the outrage about it not having been in the manifesto and how you can't trust the Tories.
Personally I think it is a masterstroke.
Who said say nothing? It would be easy to just put one or two lines in "we will seek to reform social care and fully fund it by the end of 2022".
That's literally all they needed and they could have just kept the plans secret until after the election.
Which is why people hate politicians, much better to be honest and deal with something that's been kicked down the road for far too long.
After all this furore we're still on 46%, maybe the people can cope with the occasional dose of honesty.
The surveys above preceed the social care furore.
Jezza has been running a much slicker campaign than tyhe Tories. Jezza is Trump, full of ridiculous unsustainable policies, campaigning at rallies rather than conventionally. May is Hillary, sneering at tbe deplorables and with a whiff of entitlement. Voters dont like being taken for granted.
jezza ain't no trump. he makes trump seem like a political giant. jezza's a turnip and totally useless. and this ain't the usa the british are more savvy than the yanks and not so easily taken in by emotions and rallies . we're alllllrrrriiigghhht
The 2022 election is going to be very tough unless we somehow bring the discussion back to Brexit and turn Theresa back into "Mrs Brexit - the patriotic choice" or whatever it was.
Never mind 2022.
The 2017 election is going to be very tough unless we somehow bring the discussion back to Brexit and turn Theresa back into "Mrs Brexit - the patriotic choice" or whatever it was.
Labour are going to talk about Dementia Tax and WFA nonstop until polling day. If the Tories gets dragged into this they will likely start losing vote share.
No, I think we'll still get a 50-60 seat majotity, but 2022 will be really tough as Labour won't be too far behind and a sane leader will destroy Theresa.
That's my reading.
What makes you think Labour will have a sane Leader in 2022?
The 2022 election is going to be very tough unless we somehow bring the discussion back to Brexit and turn Theresa back into "Mrs Brexit - the patriotic choice" or whatever it was.
Never mind 2022.
The 2017 election is going to be very tough unless we somehow bring the discussion back to Brexit and turn Theresa back into "Mrs Brexit - the patriotic choice" or whatever it was.
Labour are going to talk about Dementia Tax and WFA nonstop until polling day. If the Tories gets dragged into this they will likely start losing vote share.
No, I think we'll still get a 50-60 seat majotity, but 2022 will be really tough as Labour won't be too far behind and a sane leader will destroy Theresa.
That's my reading.
What makes you think Labour will have a sane Leader in 2022?
Statistically has to happen at some point.
(I kid, Ed M was sane, as are most Corbyn replacements, and he's merely very bad - despite the poll improvement, that;s down to the public)
Possiblly a sensible policy but absolutely shit politics. TMay in contrast to the posh boys was supposed to understand provincial Tory sensibilities.. Hahaha.
Really disappointed. Leaving your house to your kids is an atavistic Con instinct and this drives a coach and horses through it. Disavow it tomorrow and sack the people resp
I give up - do you not understand what happens TODAY
Possiblly a sensible policy but absolutely shit politics. TMay in contrast to the posh boys was supposed to understand provincial Tory sensibilities.. Hahaha.
Really disappointed. Leaving your house to your kids is an atavistic Con instinct and this drives a coach and horses through it. Disavow it tomorrow and sack the people resp
Indeed. What is the core Tory philosophy? Last year: inheritance is good - saving for your children's future is worthy and a basic human instinct - we will cap lifetime care, as per Dilnot, at around £70-100K. This year: inheritance is not a basic human instinct, knowing where you stand is not important, you are on your own; it is right that people who have worked and saved and invested in their homes should pay for social care to a degree only limited by their assets
WFA, Pensions Triple Lock and Social Care - the Tories actively decided to upset some of their core elderly vote. Now, people are not irrational, and there will be plenty of non-stupid people around May and co, so you have to assume they knew each of those policies will be unpopular with that group.
So they must assume the rest of the offer, including leadership, will be popular enough to overcome that, and that it is a good idea for governance to announce these things now rather than hide them, or they think it will be popular enough with others to make up for it. It simply makes no sense otherwise, as they'd not assume these would be popular with that core vote.
Now, do people dislike Corbyn enough to ensure May still wins comfortably? It would appear so, but perhaps they miscalculated how much people dislike Corbyn, and so it has caused more of an issue that they thought. Nevertheless, they knew it was going to be unpopular and included it anyway, and if we think it a good policy, that honesty should be applauded even if the presentation is bad. If it is a bad policy, obviously it was a foolish move.
I think you are discounting the possibility that it really is a combination of both bad policies and politics.
On Social care I can see that being the case, particularly if it unravels a bit, but Pensions Lock and WFA both seem good policies to me, particularly the former, and although the latter has caused plenty of comment, neither have caused as much of a stink, so it seems part of a deliberate policy decision to make these choices which hit the elderly vote, because there's no better time for them to do so.
There's only space for one to be the headline.
If May hadn't made care changes then triple lock / winter fuel would have been the headlines and everyone would be saying they were disastrous.
200 deliveries or canvassing for Clegg next weekend still. He's still in desperate trouble
Against who though ?
Who knows. My calculations say Labour
I say the Blue Meanies.
You can take both the 4/1 on Labour and the 8/1 on the Tories and still win.
2015 results:
Liberal Democrat 22,215 Labour 19,862 Conservative 7,544 UKIP 3,575
If the Lib Dems really are polling at 7-8% and mostly from Labour switchers, that 4/1 looks fantastic, especially if you can stick a few quid on the Conservatives as well as an insurance bet.
I tipped the Tories at 16/1 on here, and someone else tipped Labour at 25/1.
Every Tory tactical for Clegg in 2015 I know has gone back to the blue meanies.
I wish I'd seen that sooner!
I don't know who's going to win this but it looks very unlikely that Clegg can hold on particularly as he was propped up by Con tactical voting last time.
I got on Con and Lab at £20 each this eve because I just can't see how Clegg withstands either the inevitable rise of Corbynmania or the return of Con tactical voters. Great tip.
TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
Totally disagree. She needs to stick to the policies and dare all those rich, selfish homeowners in the south of England to vote for Jeremy Corbyn.
Yep, and she needs to get every Tory doing TV and radio tomorrow to be properly briefed and defend it to the hilt.
And she has the Brillo interview on Monday.
Too late. It is over. She will need to retract the whole thing by Wednesday imho. And give some waffle about a thorough review of the whole thing etc etc.
I think the U-turn will be on WFA for the North. They won't do it on this, but they will make WFA universal in the North based in some climate data or other.
Roll it into CWP but ease the threshold that triggers it, perhaps.
I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls
What a difference two years makes. A Tory lead of 9 points at this stage of the last GE would have had the PB Tories jumping for joy.
During the 2015 campaign according to reports Sir Lynton's private polls had the Tories on course to win a majority/or very close to winning a majority.
His final poll predicted 329 seats, only one short of the actual result.
The Tories could have easily gone for something like a commission to look for bold solutions to social care, not announce a policy that obviously has some problems, and is easily caricatured for attack by opponents.
Actually this is something I really don't understand about the whole thing.
This is big, complex, super-expensive policy. You surely need big consultations, the engagement of policy wonks, a big chunk of civil servants, industry experts, the full works.
You don't knock this stuff out for rapid public consumption with working on the back of an unbranded green fag packet in the run-up to the election. Do you?
You certainly wouldn't expect a fully coherent, finalised policy to emerge this way.
I can't believe it. Schoolboy error from the Tories. Fucking dementia. Literally more terrifying than AIDS and they're on the wrong side of it.
Christ on a crutch
How the fuck are they on the wrong side of it if they let you keep more money.
There are things you could say about the proposal , but this line is an utter bollocks lie.
I repeat again before this change we could have kept 23K out of mother in laws estate - post change it would be 100k.
How is that bad?
Again - I repeat there are other things that could be argued about it, the dementia thing whilst catchy is an out and out lie.
When you're having to explain the truth, you've already lost the narrative. "Thatcher, Thatcher, Milk Snatcher" was unfair, mendacious, and misleading to a great extent. Didn't matter.
"Crisis, what crisis?" Was an outright lie.
"There's no such thing as society" was taken out of context to the extent that it almost was implied to mean the opposite of what it was intended to mean.
Again and again and again, when the narrative catches on, if you're behind the story, you've lost the story.
This was a wholly foreseeable narrative. Maybe if they'd prepared the ground by pushing the current situation first, it could have gone that way. But they didn't - a political blunder.
There is a school of thought that says she won't fight 2022, resigning after three years or so. She has Type 1 diabetes and will be 61 in October. Not my view, but there is that school of thought.
By the way, the theory that the Lib Dems do well when Labour do well is looking in tatters at the moment.
I've never heard that theory. The sum of Labour share plus LibDem share is remarkably static, as is the sum of Tory plus UKIP share.
I think Dr Fox of this parish subscribes to it. I think it applies more to seats than share of the vote to be fair. But I don't fancy the chances of the Lib Dems right now.
TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
Totally disagree. She needs to stick to the policies and dare all those rich, selfish homeowners in the south of England to vote for Jeremy Corbyn.
Yep, and she needs to get every Tory doing TV and radio tomorrow to be properly briefed and defend it to the hilt.
And she has the Brillo interview on Monday.
Too late. It is over. She will need to retract the whole thing by Wednesday imho. And give some waffle about a thorough review of the whole thing etc etc.
I think the U-turn will be on WFA for the North. They won't do it on this, but they will make WFA universal in the North based in some climate data or other.
Which would be a bad but politically effective thing to do.
Northerners would just love to think they were getting something that those in the South weren't.
Of course that might not go down to well in the South but there's more scope to take the political hit there.
I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
Your house was already taken if you had residential care and you were left with just £23k now you get £100k and Osborne took your house out of Inheritance tax for everyone with a property worth less than £1 million
80% of people receiving Social Care do not receive residential care. They get care at home. There home was 100% safe till Thursday.
And how much is the average in-home care cost?
30 mins per day @ approx £10 per hour would be approx £5 per day or just under £2k per year.
Compared to a home worth £200k / £300k / £400k etc.
It's absolutely laughable.
"Your house was already taken if you had residential care "
No, it wasn't. Not necessarily. There was a lifetime cap - to be introduced in 2019/20. It was around £100K, I forget exactly what the final figure was going to be.
You can plan for that.
Now we are in lottery land, only a bad, sick, evil form of lottery, where if the finger points at you - well you could be paying out £400K or £500K. It's an horrendous form of wealth tax. I personally don't have a problem with wealth tax. I do have a problem with it only applying to people who get dementia or Parkinson's or MS.
I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
Your house was already taken if you had residential care and you were left with just £23k now you get £100k and Osborne took your house out of Inheritance tax for everyone with a property worth less than £1 million
80% of people receiving Social Care do not receive residential care. They get care at home. There home was 100% safe till Thursday.
And how much is the average in-home care cost?
30 mins per day @ approx £10 per hour would be approx £5 per day or just under £2k per year.
Compared to a home worth £200k / £300k / £400k etc.
It's absolutely laughable.
"Your house was already taken if you had residential care "
No, it wasn't. Not necessarily. There was a lifetime cap - to be introduced in 2019/20. It was around £100K, I forget exactly what the final figure was going to be.
You can plan for that.
Now we are in lottery land, only a bad, sick, evil form of lottery, where if the finger points at you - well you could be paying out £400K or £500K. It's an horrendous form of wealth tax. I personally don't have a problem with wealth tax. I do have a problem with it only applying to people who get dementia or Parkinson's or MS.
Paul Mason* writes Mail headline. Funny old world.
*coiner of dementia tax meme
However, despite opposition to the proposals, the public are not convinced that the moniker some have placed on the policy – the “Dementia Tax” – is fair; 37% think it is fair to call the policy the “Dementia Tax”, compared to 39% who think it’s unfair. ' http://survation.com/conservative-manifesto-poll/
I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls
What a difference two years makes. A Tory lead of 9 points at this stage of the last GE would have had the PB Tories jumping for joy.
During the 2015 campaign according to reports Sir Lynton's private polls had the Tories on course to win a majority/or very close to winning a majority.
His final poll predicted 329 seats, only one short of the actual result.
We'd kill to see his private polling tonight.
If Jack W's Arse hadn't fubared POTUS 2016 we might have seen....
Possiblly a sensible policy but absolutely shit politics. TMay in contrast to the posh boys was supposed to understand provincial Tory sensibilities.. Hahaha.
Really disappointed. Leaving your house to your kids is an atavistic Con instinct and this drives a coach and horses through it. Disavow it tomorrow and sack the people resp
I give up - do you not understand what happens TODAY
Or say that "lunch won't be free, but we're not sure how much it will cost in the future". Don't say "lunch is going to leave your kids without an inheritance or possibly homeless if you live in the south east".
I very much doubt that anybody would be left homeless because of this policy. How many children of elderly parents in need of years of home care still live at home with said parents? And how many of those would be reduced to sleeping on a park bench with a substantial inheritance guaranteed at the end of that period? Zero.
The kids would get their bag of cash and they wouldn't be reduced to penury, or anywhere close. And in the average household outside of Southern England, even for those who need a lot of expensive home care the *majority* of the value of their homes would be preserved.
This is a problem particularly for wealthy people and their heirs in the South, and will probably cause quite a lot of grumbling and whingeing and stick-banging and "but I paid my taxes!" and tut-tut-tutting. But swathes of Buckinghamshire and Surrey are not about to turn red. The one thing that's guaranteed to do their personal finances more harm than entering the home care lottery is opting for socialism - and even if some do throw a total wobblystrop and rebel, the Tories' majorities in these areas are so huge that they'll hold comfortably, even if (and it's a big if) the revolt of the wealthy homeowners is sufficient to cancel out the mass of ex-Ukippers stampeding in the other direction.
In less well-off regions of the country, the policy will be much less controversial. Indeed, getting the wealthy to cough up for their own care, rather than the general taxpayer, might actually be received favourably by some voters.
Might be received favourably? It's pretty certain to be IMO.
I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
Your house was already taken if you had residential care and you were left with just £23k now you get £100k and Osborne took your house out of Inheritance tax for everyone with a property worth less than £1 million
80% of people receiving Social Care do not receive residential care. They get care at home. There home was 100% safe till Thursday.
And how much is the average in-home care cost?
30 mins per day @ approx £10 per hour would be approx £5 per day or just under £2k per year.
Compared to a home worth £200k / £300k / £400k etc.
It's absolutely laughable.
"Your house was already taken if you had residential care "
No, it wasn't. Not necessarily. There was a lifetime cap - to be introduced in 2019/20. It was around £100K, I forget exactly what the final figure was going to be.
You can plan for that.
Now we are in lottery land, only a bad, sick, evil form of lottery, where if the finger points at you - well you could be paying out £400K or £500K. It's an horrendous form of wealth tax. I personally don't have a problem with wealth tax. I do have a problem with it only applying to people who get dementia or Parkinson's or MS.
But the lifetime cap had never actually been introduced.
By the way, the theory that the Lib Dems do well when Labour do well is looking in tatters at the moment.
I've never heard that theory. The sum of Labour share plus LibDem share is remarkably static, as is the sum of Tory plus UKIP share.
I think Dr Fox of this parish subscribes to it. I think it applies more to seats than share of the vote to be fair. But I don't fancy the chances of the Lib Dems right now.
Yez, I have postulated that theory. It requires tactical voting.
I am getting more bullish on the LDs though. All this stuff is good for Lamb. Brexit is off the menu. No one cares. We are an Island and interested ininsular affairs.
Paul Mason* writes Mail headline. Funny old world.
*coiner of dementia tax meme
However, despite opposition to the proposals, the public are not convinced that the moniker some have placed on the policy – the “Dementia Tax” – is fair; 37% think it is fair to call the policy the “Dementia Tax”, compared to 39% who think it’s unfair. ' http://survation.com/conservative-manifesto-poll/
Whether fair or not, it has cut through like a knife through Lurpak in a heatwave. Paul Mason coined the phrase. The Mail on Sunday splash on it.
The Tories could have easily gone for something like a commission to look for bold solutions to social care, not announce a policy that obviously has some problems, and is easily caricatured for attack by opponents.
Actually this is something I really don't understand about the whole thing.
This is big, complex, super-expensive policy. You surely need big consultations, the engagement of policy wonks, a big chunk of civil servants, industry experts, the full works.
You don't knock this stuff out for rapid public consumption with working on the back of an unbranded green fag packet in the run-up to the election. Do you?
You certainly wouldn't expect a fully coherent, finalised policy to emerge this way.
I suspect we have delayed too long. The system is very close to breaking.
Councils are spending increasing fractions of their budgets on Social Care, and hence the cuts are falling elsewhere.
Care homes are shutting because the rate at which the councils pay for residential care (when they have to fork it out) is too low.
The whole care system needs fresh money urgently.
Probably not enough time for another commission to mull, and we’d end up with the same old fight anyhow because it ultimately comes to down to money -- & none wants to pay the massive bill that is coming.
I think Theresa has emerged with some credit (at least with me) from this depressing and dismaying mess.
Possiblly a sensible policy but absolutely shit politics. TMay in contrast to the posh boys was supposed to understand provincial Tory sensibilities.. Hahaha.
Really disappointed. Leaving your house to your kids is an atavistic Con instinct and this drives a coach and horses through it. Disavow it tomorrow and sack the people resp
I give up - do you not understand what happens TODAY
Apparently not. Please explsin.
At the moment you can be forced to sell your house when still alive and keep only £23k to bequeath.
I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls
Maybe a one to one debate with Jezza?
Nope, she can't win that debate, people would expect her to trounce Corbyn like Cao Cao was at the Battle of Red Cliffs.
The expectations would mute any victory.
With that croaky Larry the Lamb's voice and the reliance on soundbites I doubt Aunty Theresa could come out on top of Dianne Abbot on a maths test......
I know the Mail on Sunday is slightly different to the Daily Mail .However if they both get on board with the dementia tax , May will change it and all her supporters on here will change with her.
Survation gives the Tories a bigger lead in the Midlands than the South, in the Midlands the Tories are ahead 56% to 32%, in the South by 54% to 31%. In London the Tories lead 48% to 34% while in the North Labour lead 47% to 44% and in Wales by 47% to 41%. In Scotland the SNP are down to just 38% with the Tories on 27% and Labour on 25%
I can't believe it. Schoolboy error from the Tories. Fucking dementia. Literally more terrifying than AIDS and they're on the wrong side of it.
Christ on a crutch
How the fuck are they on the wrong side of it if they let you keep more money.
There are things you could say about the proposal , but this line is an utter bollocks lie.
I repeat again before this change we could have kept 23K out of mother in laws estate - post change it would be 100k.
How is that bad?
Again - I repeat there are other things that could be argued about it, the dementia thing whilst catchy is an out and out lie.
When you're having to explain the truth, you've already lost the narrative. "Thatcher, Thatcher, Milk Snatcher" was unfair, mendacious, and misleading to a great extent. Didn't matter.
"Crisis, what crisis?" Was an outright lie.
"There's no such thing as society" was taken out of context to the extent that it almost was implied to mean the opposite of what it was intended to mean.
Again and again and again, when the narrative catches on, if you're behind the story, you've lost the story.
This was a wholly foreseeable narrative. Maybe if they'd prepared the ground by pushing the current situation first, it could have gone that way. But they didn't - a political blunder.
I can't believe it. Schoolboy error from the Tories. Fucking dementia. Literally more terrifying than AIDS and they're on the wrong side of it.
Christ on a crutch
How the fuck are they on the wrong side of it if they let you keep more money.
There are things you could say about the proposal , but this line is an utter bollocks lie.
I repeat again before this change we could have kept 23K out of mother in laws estate - post change it would be 100k.
How is that bad?
Again - I repeat there are other things that could be argued about it, the dementia thing whilst catchy is an out and out lie.
When you're having to explain the truth, you've already lost the narrative. "Thatcher, Thatcher, Milk Snatcher" was unfair, mendacious, and misleading to a great extent. Didn't matter.
"Crisis, what crisis?" Was an outright lie.
"There's no such thing as society" was taken out of context to the extent that it almost was implied to mean the opposite of what it was intended to mean.
Again and again and again, when the narrative catches on, if you're behind the story, you've lost the story.
This was a wholly foreseeable narrative. Maybe if they'd prepared the ground by pushing the current situation first, it could have gone that way. But they didn't - a political blunder.
"If you are explaining you are losing" ...someone said
There is a school of thought that says she won't fight 2022, resigning after three years or so. She has Type 1 diabetes and will be 61 in October. Not my view, but there is that school of thought.
Well i certainly subscribe to it I offered Dr Fox £20 at evens that she will be gone by the end of the Party Conference 2020.
The 2022 election is going to be very tough unless we somehow bring the discussion back to Brexit and turn Theresa back into "Mrs Brexit - the patriotic choice" or whatever it was.
Never mind 2022.
The 2017 election is going to be very tough unless we somehow bring the discussion back to Brexit and turn Theresa back into "Mrs Brexit - the patriotic choice" or whatever it was.
Labour are going to talk about Dementia Tax and WFA nonstop until polling day. If the Tories gets dragged into this they will likely start losing vote share.
No, I think we'll still get a 50-60 seat majotity, but 2022 will be really tough as Labour won't be too far behind and a sane leader will destroy Theresa.
That's my reading.
What makes you think Labour will have a sane Leader in 2022?
My personal rule that every Labour leader must be worse than the last - a reliable political law ever since John Smith - must in the end come a cropper. Because it's hard to get worse than Jeremy Corbyn.
Clive Lewis. Starmer. Thornberry. They're not great but they are just about electable as PMs; they are not obviously inferior to the wooden, nannying TMay.
It all depends on Brexit. And if TMay fucks that up, Labour will win in 2022. And after this election campaign, I am much less confident of TMay delivering a decent Brexit.
But you miss the point of the question, Sean, and it's an entirely serious one.
If Corbyn scores 35% at the GE, what are the chances of him standing down, or being stood down? Pretty close to zero I would say.
Personally I think he might survive on a much weaker performance than that, but 35% would surely make him bombproof, no? So it's starting to look like he will lead Labour into the 2022 election, yes?
Paul Mason* writes Mail headline. Funny old world.
*coiner of dementia tax meme
I thought it was the Green, Caroline Lucas.
But be that as it may: these headlines are the ones they dreaded in Tory HQ. It has taken a couple of days for the jungle drums to start beating in middle england as people (journos) phone their mum and dads to see how it has gone down, but... here we are.
Plenty of Tory bedwetting on here tonight. Just the same as at this stage in 2015.
The polls were always going to tighten from the absurd 25%+ leads of a few weeks ago. They generally do in election campaigns, even in 1997. It was ever thus.
Wake me up on 9th June when the same bedwetters are pulling an all-nighter on here and cracking open the bubbly and waxing lyrical about mother Theresa.
Night all.
Some of the wobbling is plain old-fashioned panic. Some of it is actually the product of "this is going too well, there has to be a catch" pessimism. I know I suffer from that.
I've crunched the numbers, and I'm reasonably sure that at the end of all of this the Conservative margin of victory will be no less than 12%. Neither Labour nor Corbyn are popular enough to get much beyond a third of the vote, even after the third parties have been squeezed hard. The only way the gap narrows further is if there's a miraculous revival of the Lib Dems or Ukip, AND that this happens primarily off the back of defections from the Tories; the former seems highly unlikely, and the latter total fantasy.
Note that all the focus on and wailing over the Tory manifesto is largely predicated on the assumption that this is, in effect, a one-horse race. The Labour manifesto has been largely written off (by voters as well as pundits, if what's coming out of focus groups is to be believed) as "Vote Labour and get a free kitten." Nobody gives a flying fuck what anybody else's manifesto says.
I know the Mail on Sunday is slightly different to the Daily Mail .However if they both get on board with the dementia tax , May will change it and all her supporters on here will change with her.
They'll run with it for a couple of days, but quickly go back to Corbyn if they think there's the slightest chance of him actually closing the gap.
For those worried about Mrs May handing Labour victory in 2022, us Tories ditch our poorly performing leaders PDQ, no fannying around like Labour do.
On no definition is May poorly performing, she is scoring higher than any Tory leader has scored at a general election since 1970 even post manifesto and in Scotland is set to slash the SNP lead
I know the Mail on Sunday is slightly different to the Daily Mail .However if they both get on board with the dementia tax , May will change it and all her supporters on here will change with her.
They'll run with it for a couple of days, but quickly go back to Corbyn if they think there's the slightest chance of him actually closing the gap.
They have papers to sell, they can't run a "nothing is happening" narrative. That's why the favourite always wobbles about 3 weeks before the election.
Our share capital of €3.4bn must be reimbursed on departure from the EU as non EU members can't be shareholders in the EIB unless they rewrite treaties.
Comments
Every Tory tactical for Clegg in 2015 I know has gone back to the blue meanies.
"Hey, hey, Theresa May,
She's gonna take Gran's house away.
Theresa May, strong and stable,
Took the food from the childrens' table"
Really obvious stuff, and absolutely unnecessary.
Maggie would probably have played it by keeping quiet at election time and maybe saying "we will need to examine options for social care".
Then, six months afterwards, leaking out scare stories of costs and people losing all down to £23k at the moment.
Then, a few months later, leaking harsher proposals than intended, before coming out with the proper ones (more thought out than these ones).
(b. The LDs are the stop-Brexit party and literally nothing else.
And I meant general Tory reaction, not merely PB Tory reaction.
The key is not to take politics too seriously, while simultaneously being far too interested and taking it too seriously. Tough line.
The change in lead is from Labour attracting more and more not the Tories falling.
Labour under Corbyn doing much better than Miliband and the Tories doing much better under May than either Blair or Thatcher got just doesn't smell right to me. Something is wrong here.
30 mins per day @ approx £10 per hour would be approx £5 per day or just under £2k per year.
Compared to a home worth £200k / £300k / £400k etc.
It's absolutely laughable.
Non-voters are called non-voters for a reason. They don't vote. There's no particular reason to suppose that most of them won't continue in their habit of not voting. Saying you'll vote in a survey and actually dragging yourself down the polling station when you've had a long day at work and the baby's just been sick down your pullover and there's dinner to be got ready and there's something good on the telly tonight and the polling station's a mile down the road and it's pissing it down outside and you're feeling tired and your back's hurting and that Mrs May isn't so bad really and your vote won't change the outcome and they're all the same and voting never makes any difference to anything really and do you really want to bother after all is a different matter.
The polls were always going to tighten from the absurd 25%+ leads of a few weeks ago. They generally do in election campaigns, even in 1997. It was ever thus.
Wake me up on 9th June when the same bedwetters are pulling an all-nighter on here and cracking open the bubbly and waxing lyrical about mother Theresa.
Night all.
Hahaha.
Really disappointed. Leaving your house to your kids is an atavistic Con instinct and this drives a coach and horses through it. Disavow it tomorrow and sack the people resp
I am saying this proposal is better than what exists at the moment for dementia sufferers who live in residential homes.
I say this from the experience of watching my mother decline & die from Parkison's dementia over 5 years in homes for which her family paid all the bills.
All I am asking you or kyf to do is explain what your policy is, and what it costs.
As far as I can tell, the view is that people like your mother should bear the brunt, and any changes should somehow be slipped through on the sly, post-election.
@SeanF
It is a horrible thing that old people, at their most vulnerable and fearful and ill, should pay for their care costs....
Why did we think its reasonable to save a premature, non sentient foetus months from delivery who will likely spend the rest of their life with profound, debilitating illness at full cost...but let someone who has worked and contributed all their life face financial ruin because they have drawn the dementia bullet??
We could either euthanise our oldies or collectively work out a fair system that cares for them...
If its a choice over resources....I'd personally euthanise the premature, horribly disabled babies first before they become aware of life before our oldies...but thats me...
The 80's Tory goverment were past masters at transitioning spending restraint in. No immediate hit, just slow but steady erosion by inflation.
It's actually an extra "homes allowance" but it's only £100k from April 2017. Rises by £25k per year until reaches £175k in April 2020.
A lot of people won't know the current situation (I didn't until today). There is a possibility that 'they will take your house' catches on, but if that is so, and the opposition push it, it will be cynical bullshit while they still haven't' explained how their own plan would work, while the Tories are trying to grasp the nettle. There may well be more complicated issues with their plans which are not part of why most people are objecting, so in fact the hysteria is doing a disservice even to scrutiny of this policy, as people react to what they think it is doing, not its true problems.
These overreacting Tories are pushing me closer every minute to a Tory vote for the first time ever.
'These overreacting Tories are pushing me closer every minute to a Tory vote for the first time ever.'
I thought your advice was 'laugh and move on'?
I also said consistency was for the boring (or something).
And I meant general Tory reaction, not merely PB Tory reaction.
Oh OK. Lol. I'm off to bed, I've had enough of all this excitement for one day.
I'd say it was the Islingtonites doing the sneering, Mrs May is aiming squarely at Middle Britain.
How the fuck are they on the wrong side of it if they let you keep more money.
There are things you could say about the proposal , but this line is an utter bollocks lie.
I repeat again before this change we could have kept 23K out of mother in laws estate - post change it would be 100k.
How is that bad?
Again - I repeat there are other things that could be argued about it, the dementia thing whilst catchy is an out and out lie.
35% SUPPORT care changes
40% Oppose them
So not popular but hardly a huge vote loser either.
(I kid, Ed M was sane, as are most Corbyn replacements, and he's merely very bad - despite the poll improvement, that;s down to the public)
Discuss.
If May hadn't made care changes then triple lock / winter fuel would have been the headlines and everyone would be saying they were disastrous.
I don't know who's going to win this but it looks very unlikely that Clegg can hold on particularly as he was propped up by Con tactical voting last time.
I got on Con and Lab at £20 each this eve because I just can't see how Clegg withstands either the inevitable rise of Corbynmania or the return of Con tactical voters. Great tip.
*coiner of dementia tax meme
His final poll predicted 329 seats, only one short of the actual result.
We'd kill to see his private polling tonight.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/20/theresa-may-brussels-must-pay-brexit-bill-billions-pounds/
This is big, complex, super-expensive policy. You surely need big consultations, the engagement of policy wonks, a big chunk of civil servants, industry experts, the full works.
You don't knock this stuff out for rapid public consumption with working on the back of an unbranded green fag packet in the run-up to the election. Do you?
You certainly wouldn't expect a fully coherent, finalised policy to emerge this way.
Didn't matter.
"Crisis, what crisis?" Was an outright lie.
"There's no such thing as society" was taken out of context to the extent that it almost was implied to mean the opposite of what it was intended to mean.
Again and again and again, when the narrative catches on, if you're behind the story, you've lost the story.
This was a wholly foreseeable narrative. Maybe if they'd prepared the ground by pushing the current situation first, it could have gone that way. But they didn't - a political blunder.
There is a school of thought that says she won't fight 2022, resigning after three years or so. She has Type 1 diabetes and will be 61 in October. Not my view, but there is that school of thought.
Northerners would just love to think they were getting something that those in the South weren't.
Of course that might not go down to well in the South but there's more scope to take the political hit there.
The expectations would mute any victory.
No, it wasn't. Not necessarily. There was a lifetime cap - to be introduced in 2019/20. It was around £100K, I forget exactly what the final figure was going to be.
You can plan for that.
Now we are in lottery land, only a bad, sick, evil form of lottery, where if the finger points at you - well you could be paying out £400K or £500K. It's an horrendous form of wealth tax. I personally don't have a problem with wealth tax. I do have a problem with it only applying to people who get dementia or Parkinson's or MS.
Now we are in lottery land, only a bad, sick, evil form of lottery, where if the finger points at you - well you could be paying out £400K or £500K. It's an horrendous form of wealth tax. I personally don't have a problem with wealth tax. I do have a problem with it only applying to people who get dementia or Parkinson's or MS.
http://survation.com/conservative-manifesto-poll/
It had been proposed - but it had been dropped.
At no stage did it actually protect anyone.
I am getting more bullish on the LDs though. All this stuff is good for Lamb. Brexit is off the menu. No one cares. We are an Island and interested ininsular affairs.
D-Day’s Parachuting Dummies and Inflatable Tanks
http://www.iwm.org.uk/history/d-day-s-parachuting-dummies-and-inflatable-tanks
Councils are spending increasing fractions of their budgets on Social Care, and hence the cuts are falling elsewhere.
Care homes are shutting because the rate at which the councils pay for residential care (when they have to fork it out) is too low.
The whole care system needs fresh money urgently.
Probably not enough time for another commission to mull, and we’d end up with the same old fight anyhow because it ultimately comes to down to money -- & none wants to pay the massive bill that is coming.
I think Theresa has emerged with some credit (at least with me) from this depressing and dismaying mess.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Final-MoS-Poll-190517GOCH-1c0d1h7.pdf
I offered Dr Fox £20 at evens that she will be gone by the end of the Party Conference 2020.
Happy to offer that to you
If Corbyn scores 35% at the GE, what are the chances of him standing down, or being stood down? Pretty close to zero I would say.
Personally I think he might survive on a much weaker performance than that, but 35% would surely make him bombproof, no? So it's starting to look like he will lead Labour into the 2022 election, yes?
Everybody happy?
But be that as it may: these headlines are the ones they dreaded in Tory HQ. It has taken a couple of days for the jungle drums to start beating in middle england as people (journos) phone their mum and dads to see how it has gone down, but... here we are.
I've crunched the numbers, and I'm reasonably sure that at the end of all of this the Conservative margin of victory will be no less than 12%. Neither Labour nor Corbyn are popular enough to get much beyond a third of the vote, even after the third parties have been squeezed hard. The only way the gap narrows further is if there's a miraculous revival of the Lib Dems or Ukip, AND that this happens primarily off the back of defections from the Tories; the former seems highly unlikely, and the latter total fantasy.
Note that all the focus on and wailing over the Tory manifesto is largely predicated on the assumption that this is, in effect, a one-horse race. The Labour manifesto has been largely written off (by voters as well as pundits, if what's coming out of focus groups is to be believed) as "Vote Labour and get a free kitten." Nobody gives a flying fuck what anybody else's manifesto says.
Totally against, panic, panic, going to switch vote from CON: 1
I trust May to do the right thing, she surely wont introduce a system that affects me and my disabled daughter: 1
Three or four votes to come on the phone tomorrow.
Our share capital of €3.4bn must be reimbursed on departure from the EU as non EU members can't be shareholders in the EIB unless they rewrite treaties.