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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With postal voting just starting CON maintains emphatic lead
The ORB Poll for S Telegraph which was carried out BEFORE CON manifesto launch Con 46Lab 34LD 7UKIP 7
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Ironically, they are both lucky to have each other as opponents.
First up, ORB: Oh no, only the same lead Blair got in 1997.
The suspense in here over the incoming polls.
It's going to be a damb squib
The Labour voters who vote Labour despite their hatred of Corbyn will be like the Labour MPs who put him on the ballot in the 1st place...
Regretting their decision when Corbyn remains and annihilates what's left of the party.
Sane Labour members ironically need Labour to be monstered in this election. They need a Tory landslide. But can sit on their hands and accept it?
If it should gods forbid show an increase in the lead - despite angry pensioners, disappointed right wingers, and wavering new Tories leaving in disgust - then add it to the list of things about the electorate and polling i know longer understand.
Not only is it grown up, sensible and about self sufficiency, it's strategically brilliant as it allows for a decent majority to be secured.
Remember that poor student and his his ten bags of sand on JC the Messiah from earlier in the week?
I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.
I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.
In a strange twist of fate she died the day before the power of attorney actually arrived in post.
Then straight on to probate.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
I'm a Liverpool fan, so will probably be behind the sofa for most of it!
Strange because Jezza and his trots want to soak the rich
I remember in 1983 Labour in their manifesto had higher rates for high earners. It was not £80k but around the level where HRT started, when one woman said this worried her. Another woman told her that her husband did not earn anywhere near that figure, so why was she worried.
She replied, "but, he could".
The same woman today probably would say we worked for it all our lives and now they are going to take it away. Right or wrong, it is highly emotive.
If I were a Labour canvasser, I would gently drop in the word "theft" and move to the next door.
Interesting, and consistent with the Lib Dems' crap position in the polls. And Bath a key LD target, too.
It would be wrong to change ones' view of the situation based on one person's opinion, but this guy seems to talk sense. Perhaps I am wrong and the Yellow team really are doing as badly in the country as the polls suggest?
So, no
In its first years, our service will require an additional £3 billion of public funds every year, enough to place a maximum limit on lifetime personal contributions to care costs, raise the asset threshold below which people are entitled to state support, and provide free end of life care. There are different ways the necessary monies can be raised. We will seek consensus on a cross-party basis about how it should be funded, with options including wealth taxes, an employer care contribution or a new social care levy
Answers on the back of a postcard, please.
The house doesnt count as an Asset
There are 300,000 elderly in care homes at the moment. Average care homes fees per year are 30k. Paying just for those in care homes (and so not home care) will cost 9 billion pounds.
(I am quite interested in a National Care Service, but Labour don't seem to have put much thought into how much it would cost, and where the money would come from).
It's like chess, I suppose. Almost anyone can understand the basics, but few players are much good at (or even bother) thinking more than one or two moves ahead.
An example is rail nationalisation. A lot of people want it, but typically transport only scores 3% or so when people are asked to name their top three issues.
It's pensioners who are the people who are really going to care enough to change their vote if the perception sticks that the Conservatives are really having a go at pensioners. Probably also those approaching the ever receding state pension age (eg. in the case of WASPI women)
But in their own manifesto, they said (to paraphrase):
1. Let's kick the can a little more.
2. Let's be adults about this difficult subject.
Now what we see is:
1. Let's just have the State pay for it.
2. #DEMENTIATAX OMG EEVIL BABYEATERS!!!!!!
The reality is that:
1. This will cost roughly 5p on income tax across all rates - they're not saying anything about this, just trying to add it to the other £60 something billion in uncosted expentidure in the Labour manifesto.
2. What happened to being adults about this difficult subject?
The Tory proposal might not be perfect, but let's all engage with the discussion to look at how it might be improved, rather than the screaming hysteria we've seen from certain quarters so far.
Sadly, I think Wenger is going to be leaving us on a low, which isn't what I wanted for him. Chelsea are definitely winning the FA Cup.
Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)
Still a bit strange to me - if you were tempted by May before, going Corbyn now even if you dislike this latest policy set seems odd.
From a few days ago
"I predict that at some point during the campaign, there'll be a poll - even 2 polls in succession - that appears temporarily to turn the picture upside down. And there will be joy on the left and gloom on the right. Then normality will reassert itself. "