PB Tories 3 days ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 30%?
PB Tories 3 weeks ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 25%
It's a fair point - Labour are up closer to mid 30 than low 30 with everyone now I believe. Either its a polling disaster, or it is real, they will outdo poor Ed M.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. Worse still her version of conservativism is, well, odd. It includes an energy price cap(!), it includes higher taxes for self employed people who take risks, it includes higher taxes on dividend income for those who have played by the rules by saving and investing.
I honestly don't know how someone as sensible as you can be so blinkered on this. One could fairly accuse Dave and George of being Wets, but Theresa is turning out to be from the bloody SDP wing of the party. Horrible.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
Tsh. How much would Cameron (or any other competent leader) be winning by if they had become PM last year? Name one single well presented and coherent policy that she has presented since becoming PM?
And as for Brexit we still have zero idea what she plans. And frankly if her performance in this campaign so far is anything to go by it seems likely she has about as much idea as we have.
It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
"This is still consistent with a Tory share of 45-46% pending more polling. And that is a healthy majority unless all the Others collapse and Labour get 40%."
"This is still consistent with a Tory share of 45-46% pending more polling. And that is a healthy majority unless all the Others collapse and Labour get 40%."
Others being SNP? Can't see that happening.
Exactly. Can LD+UKIP+GRN+SNP+PC+OTH go sub 15?
Just guesses at absolute floors of support makes that difficult still
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .
The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.
Question, does anyone actually make sure the kids eat these presumably healthy, free meals, rather than say pick at the bits they like and bin what they don't want? Genuine question, I know little of this policy and its one I like the sound of, but I have no idea if we know it actually works.
These are meals given to 5 and 6 year olds so yes people are checking.
Also pilot study results about performance are good.
PB Tories 3 days ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 30%?
PB Tories 3 weeks ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 25%
It's a fair point - Labour are up closer to mid 30 than low 30 with everyone now I believe. Either its a polling disaster, or it is real, they will outdo poor Ed M.
ICM still have Labour below 30.
Outlier! (or about to pick it up, I'd bet)
Labour clearly now well over 30 it seems. Looking like 45-35.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. Worse still her version of conservativism is, well, odd. It includes an energy price cap(!), it includes higher taxes for self employed people who take risks, it includes higher taxes on dividend income for those who have played by the rules by saving and investing.
I honestly don't know how someone as sensible as you can be so blinkered on this. One could fairly accuse Dave and George of being Wets, but Theresa is turning out to be from the bloody SDP wing of the party. Horrible.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. Worse still her version of conservativism is, well, odd. It includes an energy price cap(!), it includes higher taxes for self employed people who take risks, it includes higher taxes on dividend income for those who have played by the rules by saving and investing.
I honestly don't know how someone as sensible as you can be so blinkered on this. One could fairly accuse Dave and George of being Wets, but Theresa is turning out to be from the bloody SDP wing of the party. Horrible.
We're in different wings of the party Max - perhaps I've spent too much time around accountants and tax lawyers, but neo-liberal trickle down economics seems too easy for the wealthy to legally game.
Dividend tax hurts me. Social care changes might. Self employed NI changes hurt many of my colleagues. But opposing them would in my opinion be selfish. Because I think it is the right thing to do.
Remove triple lock Care threshold WFA removal WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
Agreed.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
It was the sort of political mistake Gordon Brown would have made.
Davidson really needs to produce double figures for SCON MPs now.
Question, does anyone actually make sure the kids eat these presumably healthy, free meals, rather than say pick at the bits they like and bin what they don't want? Genuine question, I know little of this policy and its one I like the sound of, but I have no idea if we know it actually works.
These are meals given to 5 and 6 year olds so yes people are checking.
Also pilot study results about performance are good.
Other studies show that breakfast clubs are more beneficial for the poorest...
Remove triple lock Care threshold WFA removal WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
I think speaking from a secret location in Scotland to do so was the real optics killer.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .
The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.
Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble. Remember, when she was a blank sheet of paper she was that far ahead. What's changed in the last couple of weeks is that we've seen what Theresa, or at least the party led by her, stands for and it's turning people off. I'll still vote Tory but I have nowhere else to go and I would never risk Corbyn getting into No. 10. "Not Corbyn" is surely her most appealing factor.
Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.
There is a difference between liking something and caring enough about something that you change your vote on the back of a reaction one way or another to something.
An example is rail nationalisation. A lot of people want it, but typically transport only scores 3% or so when people are asked to name their top three issues.
It's pensioners who are the people who are really going to care enough to change their vote if the perception sticks that the Conservatives are really having a go at pensioners. Probably also those approaching the ever receding state pension age (eg. in the case of WASPI women)
Ah, but how many of those who really care are in a position to make a difference to the election?
Your average home in the Midlands is worth substantially less than £200,000. Most of that value would be preserved. In the North and Wales, it's less than that.
The people most likely to be affected by this policy are, surprise surprise, wealthy homeowners and their heirs in Southern England, who (a) mostly inhabit safe seats and (b) can only rescue themselves from this policy by voting for a socialist, whom they must suspect would tax the crap out of them in the end, whatever he says to get their vote.
The care policy could have a price, but it's liable to be modest, and to be concentrated disproportionately in those constituencies where it will do the least amount of harm. The policy may simply have the effect of making the Conservatives' voter distribution more efficient, rather than depriving them of any meaningful number of MPs.
In London, where houses are worth a lot, it will help the LibDems.
Remember it's ICM and ComRes who turnout weight in line with actual previous voting demographics.
Whereas everyone else at least to some degree takes account of what people say their likelihood to vote is.
Time after time after time young people overstate their likelihood to vote.
I think the ICM / ComRes approach is far more likely to be correct - so we need to see the next ICM and ComRes polls. Possibility of ICM in Sun on Sunday - though I don't think we normally get that until the morning.
Does anyone know what the polls would be showing is GE2015 methodology was used?
Are the same flaws still present (overstating Lab, understating Con) or have amendments been made, which could possibly go too far the other way.
Suggesting the Tories might be overstated and Labour understated....there are enough foaming, demented, panic stricken, irrational, hysterical Tories here already.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .
The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.
Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble. Remember, when she was a blank sheet of paper she was that far ahead. What's changed in he last couple of weeks is that we've seen what Theresa, or at least the party led by her, stands for and it's turning people off. I'll still vote Tory but I have nowhere else to go and I would never risk Corbyn getting into No. 10. "Not Corbyn" is surely her most appealing factor.
I am officially declaring Saturday the 20th of May the Day the Polls Turned.
Tipping point.
I still hold that the Lab polling figure is made up in large part of people who aren't actually going to go out and fucking vote so it will be a massive polling miss.
PB Tories 3 days ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 30%?
PB Tories 3 weeks ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 25%
It's a fair point - Labour are up closer to mid 30 than low 30 with everyone now I believe. Either its a polling disaster, or it is real, they will outdo poor Ed M.
ICM still have Labour below 30.
Outlier! (or about to pick it up, I'd bet)
Labour clearly now well over 30 it seems. Looking like 45-35.
ICM fieldwork ended last Sunday (14th) so I included it with last week's ELBOW.
It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
If your hypothetical person bought a two-up-two-down[1] in 1983 then it would have been for about £20K. Your hypothetical person is sitting on a tax-free unearned profit in excess of £400,000. A £450K house in the North East[2] would be detached, around 4-5 bedrooms with a garden surrounding all four sides and a drive.
[1] At the time it would have been nearer two-up-three-or-four-down, with a front room, living room, kitchen and converted bathroom downstairs, with a small yard out the back. But that's me being unbearably pedantic. [2] Before @YorkCity kicks in, York and Harrogate are in Yorkshire GOR
You're looking at this from the wrong angle. I didn't ask how it plays out for _you_, I asked how it would look if you were that person, with the 450k home as your only major asset.
The answer probably isn't "well, I'm sitting on a 400k unearned asset, whoop-de-doo for me" the answer is probably "I grew up with nothing, worked hard all my life, now that Theresa May has come along and said she's going to take the house I raised my kids in, the house I wanted to leave to them, to pay for my old age, even though I've paid my taxes my entire life".
This is TERRIBLE for the Conservatives. And terrible with the kind of voters they should be winning over - older, lower-middle-class, small c conservative types.
Fair point. My point, which was orthogonal to yours instead of rebuttal, is that house prices have changed a lot over the past years.
Remove triple lock Care threshold WFA removal WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
Agreed.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
It was the sort of political mistake Gordon Brown would have made.
Davidson really needs to produce double figures for SCON MPs now.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .
The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.
Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble. Remember, when she was a blank sheet of paper she was that far ahead. What's changed in he last couple of weeks is that we've seen what Theresa, or at least the party led by her, stands for and it's turning people off. I'll still vote Tory but I have nowhere else to go and I would never risk Corbyn getting into No. 10. "Not Corbyn" is surely her most appealing factor.
I am officially declaring Saturday the 20th of May the Day the Polls Turned.
Tipping point.
I still hold that the Lab polling figure is made up in large part of people who aren't actually going to go out and fucking vote so it will be a massive polling miss.
Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble. Remember, when she was a blank sheet of paper she was that far ahead. What's changed in the last couple of weeks is that we've seen what Theresa, or at least the party led by her, stands for and it's turning people off. I'll still vote Tory but I have nowhere else to go and I would never risk Corbyn getting into No. 10. "Not Corbyn" is surely her most appealing factor.
It's not just the policies, which aren't all bad, the presentation has been dire, and the obvious attacks that they would meet seem to have gone right over Tory heads. If you are going to do something courageous you had better be able to defend if from attacks that even a dozy beggar like Corbyn could come up with.
Labour rebels are panicking like PB Tories - they assumed Corbyn would do terribly, and so far, in part thanks to the LDs being squeezed rather than improving, he may well better Ed M in votes, and retain a lot more seats than thought previously, so the righteousness of any challenge (should he not resign) is being undermined, unless they start changing the goalposts of (relative) success. Once again, while Corbyn should do badly, they've played expectations so wrong he will be claiming a measure of victory given it is true he has had little support from the MPs.
Still a bit strange to me - if you were tempted by May before, going Corbyn now even if you dislike this latest policy set seems odd.
What if you weren't tempted by May at all but couldn't stand to vote Corbyn. This could be Not Voters turning into Lab voters.
I guess, though given the Tory drop would need to coincide with Tory voters turning abstainers I suppose.
I think given the headline figure excludes DKs the Con vote could be basically static if the is a surge of DKs turning into Labour. The raw figures will reveal all.
It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
Ironic if Labour are on 35% because of wealthy, elderly houseowners in the south of England.
I don't think some on here understand how high house prices have become in the south. Literally people could retire on manual jobs pension (like driver, mechanic etc) and own houses worth £500,000. It is common.
Labour rebels are panicking like PB Tories - they assumed Corbyn would do terribly, and so far, in part thanks to the LDs being squeezed rather than improving, he may well better Ed M in votes, and retain a lot more seats than thought previously, so the righteousness of any challenge (should he not resign) is being undermined, unless they start changing the goalposts of (relative) success. Once again, while Corbyn should do badly, they've played expectations so wrong he will be claiming a measure of victory given it is true he has had little support from the MPs.
Yes, looking like ideal result for May. Rebel proof majority and Corbyn still in charge.
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
Nannying? What fucking planet are you living on? She telling people to sort themselves out.
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
Despite Brexit, reconsidering Cameron's political abilities?
Labour rebels are panicking like PB Tories - they assumed Corbyn would do terribly, and so far, in part thanks to the LDs being squeezed rather than improving, he may well better Ed M in votes, and retain a lot more seats than thought previously, so the righteousness of any challenge (should he not resign) is being undermined, unless they start changing the goalposts of (relative) success. Once again, while Corbyn should do badly, they've played expectations so wrong he will be claiming a measure of victory given it is true he has had little support from the MPs.
They'll still split even if Corbyn does out perform Miliband, which is scarcely a ringing endorsement. I cannot see the PLP suffering Corbyn & McDonnell for another five years. It's inconceivable.
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....
TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.
We're in different wings of the party Max - perhaps I've spent too much time around accountants and tax lawyers, but neo-liberal trickle down economics seems too easy for the wealthy to legally game.
Dividend tax hurts me. Social care changes might. Self employed NI changes hurt many of my colleagues. But opposing them would in my opinion be selfish. Because I think it is the right thing to do.
Higher taxes on people who take the bloody risk of self employment, have basically no safety net and no such thing as paid holiday or the luxury of paid sick leave. It is a tax on risk, since when has the Tory party ever been in favour of increasing taxes on risk takers and entrepreneurs? It's what I expect from Labour, not our own party. Loads of members I know we're disgusted with the idea of hitting self-employed people.
My wing of party wants more competition and consumer choice. Theresa May's wing believes that the government knows better than the free market. It's not a naturally conservative position, and not one I generally agree with.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
Tsh. How much would Cameron (or any other competent leader) be winning by if they had become PM last year? Name one single well presented and coherent policy that she has presented since becoming PM?
And as for Brexit we still have zero idea what she plans. And frankly if her performance in this campaign so far is anything to go by it seems likely she has about as much idea as we have.
Deciding to launch the dementia tax in the middle of an election campaign when there was no need, doesn't bode well for her strategic genius when it comes to negotiating Brexit.
Remove triple lock Care threshold WFA removal WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
Agreed.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
It was the sort of political mistake Gordon Brown would have made.
Davidson really needs to produce double figures for SCON MPs now.
Ruth is unraveling Jim Murphy style !
I wonder if we'll see a picture of May in Davidson's pocket:
Labour rebels are panicking like PB Tories - they assumed Corbyn would do terribly, and so far, in part thanks to the LDs being squeezed rather than improving, he may well better Ed M in votes, and retain a lot more seats than thought previously, so the righteousness of any challenge (should he not resign) is being undermined, unless they start changing the goalposts of (relative) success. Once again, while Corbyn should do badly, they've played expectations so wrong he will be claiming a measure of victory given it is true he has had little support from the MPs.
They'll still split even if Corbyn does out perform Miliband, which is scarcely a ringing endorsement. I cannot see the PLP suffering Corbyn & McDonnell for another five years. It's inconceivable.
I'd have said that about 35% scores for Corbyn Labour in the polls (even if the polls are wrong, I would not have expected them to get quite so high, but even without the social care stuff they were closing in), so it is a very odd world out there, who knows what that lot might end up doing!
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .
The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.
Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble.
That might be a fair test if the third parties weren't collapsing. As it is you're asking for 55-35, which is optimistic.
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
The alternative, in terms of social care, is just ignore the problem till the system collapses.
And perhaps that is the correct approach, in political terms.
Still a bit strange to me - if you were tempted by May before, going Corbyn now even if you dislike this latest policy set seems odd.
As I said in a thread in the week, I think Corbyn - in the nick of time - has played this campaign like a grown-up (rather than the petulant street activist we've all come to know). Smiles at reporters' questions about lightweight personality crap, rules out binning Trident, produces a manifesto full of moon-on-a-stick populism rather than trade deals with Venezuela and renaming every town hall after Bobby Sands.
I suspect he's done enough to detoxify himself to a lot of wavering social democrats who haven't been impressed by Farron and don't see themselves as Tories.
The solid unchanging core for both main parties is probably 20-25pc each. In a market where the Others have gone home, there's a lot to play for on the shifting sands in between - without many doing a straight swap from Con to Lab.
Labour will still get stuffed, but if May doesnt get a landslide, she won't look like a winner. And I wouldn't bet on Corbyn going fast in such circumstances.
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
May knew these would be tough decisions but she took them anyway and she is still polling higher than Blair or Thatcher ever got, some headless chicken rightwingers are being ridiculously over the top, the focus is on the marginals in the North, the Midlands and Wales and I will be back phoning there again next week
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....
He should have bloody stood. I can see the party getting rid as soon as Brexit is done. She will lose badly to a sane Labour party.
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
If your hypothetical person bought a two-up-two-down[1] in 1983 then it would have been for about £20K. Your hypothetical person is sitting on a tax-free unearned profit in excess of £400,000. A £450K house in the North East[2] would be detached, around 4-5 bedrooms with a garden surrounding all four sides and a drive.
[1] At the time it would have been nearer two-up-three-or-four-down, with a front room, living room, kitchen and converted bathroom downstairs, with a small yard out the back. But that's me being unbearably pedantic. [2] Before @YorkCity kicks in, York and Harrogate are in Yorkshire GOR
You're looking at this from the wrong angle. I didn't ask how it plays out for _you_, I asked how it would look if you were that person, with the 450k home as your only major asset.
The answer probably isn't "well, I'm sitting on a 400k unearned asset, whoop-de-doo for me" the answer is probably "I grew up with nothing, worked hard all my life, now that Theresa May has come along and said she's going to take the house I raised my kids in, the house I wanted to leave to them, to pay for my old age, even though I've paid my taxes my entire life".
This is TERRIBLE for the Conservatives. And terrible with the kind of voters they should be winning over - older, lower-middle-class, small c conservative types.
Fair point. My point, which was orthogonal to yours instead of rebuttal, is that house prices have changed a lot over the past years.
I must confess I had to look orthagonal up!
I guess the received wisdom on here is that the people who hate the "dementia tax" are the well off in the south - the scenario I've painted above shows why I think it's absolutely devastating for the Tories in marginal northern constituencies with older small c conservative voters.
TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....
You are still wrong on Mrs May, when did Cameron ever get more than 40% in a general election? Cameron did the hard work to get the Tories back to power to be fair but May is now taking the tough decisions the country needs from its government
"This is still consistent with a Tory share of 45-46% pending more polling. And that is a healthy majority unless all the Others collapse and Labour get 40%."
Others being SNP? Can't see that happening.
Exactly. Can LD+UKIP+GRN+SNP+PC+OTH go sub 15?
Just guesses at absolute floors of support makes that difficult still
5+3+2+4+1
Anyone think those scores or worse are possible?
The combined GB-wide score for SNP+PC+Speaker and all the odds and sods will be something like 5.3% - this leaves 9.7% to play with. The Liberal Democrats are unlikely to do significantly worse than they did last time, when they managed 8.1%; even if they go as low as 7% that still leaves only 2.7% for both Ukip and the Greens. The Greens alone will probably get somewhere close to that (they were on 3.8% last time, though they're liable to be squeezed by Labour this time.)
Let's say 5.3% for the SNP, Plaid and minor parties, 7% for the Lib Dems, 2.5% for the Greens and 2.5% for Ukip, who are standing in fewer seats than the Greens and appear to be evaporating like a puddle in strong sunshine. That gets us up to just over 17%. If Ukip do unexpectedly well then the SNP, LDs and others could make somewhere between 18-19%. Leaving 81-82% for the big two.
A Con total of 45% could put Labour on up to 37%, but personally I still expect the Tories to do better (and, necessarily, Labour worse) than that. As I mentioned earlier, the Conservatives' 38% from the last election, plus 50% of the 2015 Ukip vote and an approximate doubling of support in Scotland gets the Conservatives up to 45% on its own, and Labour's secondary polling numbers are still bad, which implies that there should be net voter gains from them at least as well. Certainly a Conservative figure of below 45% - assuming that Ukip doesn't mysteriously rise from the grave - would imply either a net flow of 2015 voters from Con to Lab, or that Labour was doing as well or better in attracting 2015 Ukip voters than the Tories, or both. Regardless of caterwauling over elderly handouts, that makes no sense.
Remove triple lock Care threshold WFA removal WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
Agreed.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
Winter fuel payments to OAPs is devolved to the Scottish government, so it's irrelevant what May plans to do with England and Wales.
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
May knew these would be tough decisions but she took them anyway and she is still polling higher than Blair or Thatcher ever got, some headless chicken rightwingers are being ridiculously over the top, the focus is on the marginals in the North, the Midlands and Wales and I will be back phoning there again next week
Remember to tell them that WFA is being taken away from people like them but Scottish millionaires will still get it.
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....
He should have bloody stood. I can see the party getting rid as soon as Brexit is done. She will lose badly to a sane Labour party.
If it is any consolation, I did urge him to stand again.
I don't know. I was hoping you or @BlackRook could tell me. I'm going to have to Google RodCrosby, aren't I?...
I think that Labour could end up doing that well given a sufficiently tight squeeze on the also-ran parties, but the Tories won't do that badly. With Ukip where they are, it implies either that nearly as many 2015 Kippers are voting for Labour as for the Conservatives; or that the Ukip-Tory conversation rate remains very solid, but that a significant number (by which I mean, perhaps as many as a million) 2015 Tories are now planning on voting for Labour.
No significant proportion of the 38% who weren't willing to abandon Cameron for an unthreatening figure like Ed Miliband are now going to think that it's a marvellous idea to put Jeremy Corbyn in 10 Downing St. It make absolutely no sense.
Thank you. Given the anecdotage I'm willing to believe the slow death of the Libs, but I'm still dubious about Lab being 35%. The noise from the PB panicteriat is drowning out the thinking.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .
The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.
Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble.
That might be a fair test if the third parties weren't collapsing. As it is you're asking for 55-35, which is optimistic.
No I'm not, I'm asking for 48-28, which is about where we were before the nation realised that Theresa is Ed Miliband in a skirt.
We're in different wings of the party Max - perhaps I've spent too much time around accountants and tax lawyers, but neo-liberal trickle down economics seems too easy for the wealthy to legally game.
Dividend tax hurts me. Social care changes might. Self employed NI changes hurt many of my colleagues. But opposing them would in my opinion be selfish. Because I think it is the right thing to do.
Higher taxes on people who take the bloody risk of self employment, have basically no safety net and no such thing as paid holiday or the luxury of paid sick leave. It is a tax on risk, since when has the Tory party ever been in favour of increasing taxes on risk takers and entrepreneurs? It's what I expect from Labour, not our own party. Loads of members I know we're disgusted with the idea of hitting self-employed people.
My wing of party wants more competition and consumer choice. Theresa May's wing believes that the government knows better than the free market. It's not a naturally conservative position, and not one I generally agree with.
PAYE nics are c.26%, self employed nics are too low.
This is a great country in which to take risks. I should know - I founded a business in '07, went full time after leaving uni and now have employees and a comfortable living. What allowed this to happen was hard work, a grammar school and Oxbridge college that gave me confidence and a loving family. It was not because the dividend taxes or NICs were low.
Remove triple lock Care threshold WFA removal WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
Agreed.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
Winter fuel payments to OAPs is devolved to the Scottish government, so it's irrelevant what May plans to do with England and Wales.
Comments
I honestly don't know how someone as sensible as you can be so blinkered on this. One could fairly accuse Dave and George of being Wets, but Theresa is turning out to be from the bloody SDP wing of the party. Horrible.
And as for Brexit we still have zero idea what she plans. And frankly if her performance in this campaign so far is anything to go by it seems likely she has about as much idea as we have.
5+3+2+4+1
Anyone think those scores or worse are possible?
Also pilot study results about performance are good.
Labour clearly now well over 30 it seems. Looking like 45-35.
Does anyone know what the polls would be showing is GE2015 methodology was used?
Are the same flaws still present (overstating Lab, understating Con) or have amendments been made, which could possibly go too far the other way.
Dividend tax hurts me. Social care changes might. Self employed NI changes hurt many of my colleagues. But opposing them would in my opinion be selfish. Because I think it is the right thing to do.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
It was the sort of political mistake Gordon Brown would have made.
Davidson really needs to produce double figures for SCON MPs now.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/866039866332770306
Will not be betting on anything better for Lab
Certainly still no chance of a Lab win
EICIPM sorry I mean TMICIPM
Whereas everyone else at least to some degree takes account of what people say their likelihood to vote is.
Time after time after time young people overstate their likelihood to vote.
I think the ICM / ComRes approach is far more likely to be correct - so we need to see the next ICM and ComRes polls. Possibility of ICM in Sun on Sunday - though I don't think we normally get that until the morning.
I'd love to see a poll (not just sub samples or something) on this policy by region, to see if your supposition is born out at all.
In other words that Survation poll tonight is very similar to their last online poll
Dunkirk - tactical defeat, but long-term strategic victory.
"Lab lucky to get 20%" was the PB Tory narrative.
He's thinking about our 200/1 bets
If Ed wields the dagger then things get very interesting.....
But good chance of an ICM Sun on Sunday - there wasn't one last week and they had them previously a few weeks in a row.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....
My wing of party wants more competition and consumer choice. Theresa May's wing believes that the government knows better than the free market. It's not a naturally conservative position, and not one I generally agree with.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=ed+miliband+in+salmond's+pocket&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjG_o_-tP_TAhXFKsAKHRD7AeYQsAQIOg&biw=1360&bih=612#imgrc=LJwiiR17XPJOnM:&spf=1495315727586
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/866032768593080320
And perhaps that is the correct approach, in political terms.
I suspect he's done enough to detoxify himself to a lot of wavering social democrats who haven't been impressed by Farron and don't see themselves as Tories.
The solid unchanging core for both main parties is probably 20-25pc each. In a market where the Others have gone home, there's a lot to play for on the shifting sands in between - without many doing a straight swap from Con to Lab.
Labour will still get stuffed, but if May doesnt get a landslide, she won't look like a winner. And I wouldn't bet on Corbyn going fast in such circumstances.
Hey, at some point saying that will be right.
Whilst the social care proposals are right in principle, they merely need some tweaks to be a truly great policy.
If you haven't read it, read Alastair's piece from this morning, really glad I asked him to do that piece.
I guess the received wisdom on here is that the people who hate the "dementia tax" are the well off in the south - the scenario I've painted above shows why I think it's absolutely devastating for the Tories in marginal northern constituencies with older small c conservative voters.
Let's say 5.3% for the SNP, Plaid and minor parties, 7% for the Lib Dems, 2.5% for the Greens and 2.5% for Ukip, who are standing in fewer seats than the Greens and appear to be evaporating like a puddle in strong sunshine. That gets us up to just over 17%. If Ukip do unexpectedly well then the SNP, LDs and others could make somewhere between 18-19%. Leaving 81-82% for the big two.
A Con total of 45% could put Labour on up to 37%, but personally I still expect the Tories to do better (and, necessarily, Labour worse) than that. As I mentioned earlier, the Conservatives' 38% from the last election, plus 50% of the 2015 Ukip vote and an approximate doubling of support in Scotland gets the Conservatives up to 45% on its own, and Labour's secondary polling numbers are still bad, which implies that there should be net voter gains from them at least as well. Certainly a Conservative figure of below 45% - assuming that Ukip doesn't mysteriously rise from the grave - would imply either a net flow of 2015 voters from Con to Lab, or that Labour was doing as well or better in attracting 2015 Ukip voters than the Tories, or both. Regardless of caterwauling over elderly handouts, that makes no sense.
Those safer barriers are saving lives.
This is a great country in which to take risks. I should know - I founded a business in '07, went full time after leaving uni and now have employees and a comfortable living. What allowed this to happen was hard work, a grammar school and Oxbridge college that gave me confidence and a loving family. It was not because the dividend taxes or NICs were low.