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ICM still have Labour below 30.kle4 said:
It's a fair point - Labour are up closer to mid 30 than low 30 with everyone now I believe. Either its a polling disaster, or it is real, they will outdo poor Ed M.bigjohnowls said:
PB Tories 3 days ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 30%?AndyJS said:
Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)
PB Tories 3 weeks ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 25%0 -
21st of May the Day that May Turned on the Dementia Tax?Alistair said:
I am officially declaring Saturday the 20th of May the Day the Polls Turned.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. Worse still her version of conservativism is, well, odd. It includes an energy price cap(!), it includes higher taxes for self employed people who take risks, it includes higher taxes on dividend income for those who have played by the rules by saving and investing.Mortimer said:
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.MaxPB said:
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.Mortimer said:Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
I honestly don't know how someone as sensible as you can be so blinkered on this. One could fairly accuse Dave and George of being Wets, but Theresa is turning out to be from the bloody SDP wing of the party. Horrible.0 -
Tsh. How much would Cameron (or any other competent leader) be winning by if they had become PM last year? Name one single well presented and coherent policy that she has presented since becoming PM?Mortimer said:
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.MaxPB said:
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.Mortimer said:Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
And as for Brexit we still have zero idea what she plans. And frankly if her performance in this campaign so far is anything to go by it seems likely she has about as much idea as we have.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Theresa May = AC MilanoScrapheap_as_was said:It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
Jeremy Corbyn = Liverpool
2017 = Istanbul 2005
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I guess, though given the Tory drop would need to coincide with Tory voters turning abstainers I suppose.Alistair said:
What if you weren't tempted by May at all but couldn't stand to vote Corbyn. This could be Not Voters turning into Lab voters.kle4 said:
Boom, called it 4 weeks ago.Scott_P said:
Still a bit strange to me - if you were tempted by May before, going Corbyn now even if you dislike this latest policy set seems odd.0 -
Exactly. Can LD+UKIP+GRN+SNP+PC+OTH go sub 15?RobD said:
Others being SNP? Can't see that happening.ThreeQuidder said:
From 20 minutes ago:chestnut said:Survation Headline Voting Intention
CON 46%; LAB 34%; LD 8%; UKIP 3%; Others 8%
"This is still consistent with a Tory share of 45-46% pending more polling. And that is a healthy majority unless all the Others collapse and Labour get 40%."0 -
Tipping point.Alistair said:
I am officially declaring Saturday the 20th of May the Day the Polls Turned.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Just guesses at absolute floors of support makes that difficult stillThreeQuidder said:
Exactly. Can LD+UKIP+GRN+SNP+PC+OTH go sub 15?RobD said:
Others being SNP? Can't see that happening.ThreeQuidder said:
From 20 minutes ago:chestnut said:Survation Headline Voting Intention
CON 46%; LAB 34%; LD 8%; UKIP 3%; Others 8%
"This is still consistent with a Tory share of 45-46% pending more polling. And that is a healthy majority unless all the Others collapse and Labour get 40%."
5+3+2+4+1
Anyone think those scores or worse are possible?0 -
Thatcher polled 44.7% in 1979.HYUFD said:
44% still higher than Thatcher ever got, just Labour up tooTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Yup. Prep the drop ship for immediate evac.Sunil_Prasannan said:
44 v 35 is an ass-kicking??Ishmael_Z said:
Hey, maybe you haven’t been keeping up with current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal!Sunil_Prasannan said:I note my fellow PB Tories are panicking like the French Army in 1940.
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The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.MaxPB said:
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .Mortimer said:
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.MaxPB said:
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.Mortimer said:Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
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Labour polled over 36% in 2005 in GB.Sunil_Prasannan said:Labour polling as high as GE2005? Seriously?
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These are meals given to 5 and 6 year olds so yes people are checking.kle4 said:
Question, does anyone actually make sure the kids eat these presumably healthy, free meals, rather than say pick at the bits they like and bin what they don't want? Genuine question, I know little of this policy and its one I like the sound of, but I have no idea if we know it actually works.calum said:
Also pilot study results about performance are good.0 -
Third fastest so far, very impressive. I see Boullier is there. Success has many fathers. Failure is an orphan.Sandpit said:
Thanks for the nudge, had completely forgotten about it!tlg86 said:For those with BT Sport, Fernando Alonso is about to do his first qualifying run at Indianapolis (on ESPN).
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Can someone tell me what the postal vote % was at the last GE please?0
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Boris defending the Manifesto on Peston !0
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Outlier! (or about to pick it up, I'd bet)another_richard said:
ICM still have Labour below 30.kle4 said:
It's a fair point - Labour are up closer to mid 30 than low 30 with everyone now I believe. Either its a polling disaster, or it is real, they will outdo poor Ed M.bigjohnowls said:
PB Tories 3 days ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 30%?AndyJS said:
Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)
PB Tories 3 weeks ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 25%
Labour clearly now well over 30 it seems. Looking like 45-35.0 -
Er, no, the day the polls turned in 2015, Labour had poll LEADS! Labour haven't had a poll LEAD since 26th April 2016!Alistair said:
I am officially declaring Saturday the 20th of May the Day the Polls Turned.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Note that Survation poll was an online poll, not a phone poll.0
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"Dunkirk" movie out July 21st. Disaster impending, averted in the nick of time. (?)Sunil_Prasannan said:I note my fellow PB Tories are panicking like the French Army in 1940.
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45-46% is "struggling to beat"? C'mon, man.MaxPB said:
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. Worse still her version of conservativism is, well, odd. It includes an energy price cap(!), it includes higher taxes for self employed people who take risks, it includes higher taxes on dividend income for those who have played by the rules by saving and investing.Mortimer said:
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.MaxPB said:
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.Mortimer said:Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
I honestly don't know how someone as sensible as you can be so blinkered on this. One could fairly accuse Dave and George of being Wets, but Theresa is turning out to be from the bloody SDP wing of the party. Horrible.0 -
So more reliable?TheScreamingEagles said:Note that Survation poll was an online poll, not a phone poll.
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Occasional lurker here with a question:
Does anyone know what the polls would be showing is GE2015 methodology was used?
Are the same flaws still present (overstating Lab, understating Con) or have amendments been made, which could possibly go too far the other way.0 -
Do they have the right to demand details of your income w/o legislation?Scott_P said:@ShippersUnbound: BBC plotting to means test the free TV licence. See Sunday Times
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We're in different wings of the party Max - perhaps I've spent too much time around accountants and tax lawyers, but neo-liberal trickle down economics seems too easy for the wealthy to legally game.MaxPB said:
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. Worse still her version of conservativism is, well, odd. It includes an energy price cap(!), it includes higher taxes for self employed people who take risks, it includes higher taxes on dividend income for those who have played by the rules by saving and investing.Mortimer said:
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.MaxPB said:
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.Mortimer said:Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
I honestly don't know how someone as sensible as you can be so blinkered on this. One could fairly accuse Dave and George of being Wets, but Theresa is turning out to be from the bloody SDP wing of the party. Horrible.
Dividend tax hurts me. Social care changes might. Self employed NI changes hurt many of my colleagues. But opposing them would in my opinion be selfish. Because I think it is the right thing to do.0 -
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
It was the sort of political mistake Gordon Brown would have made.
Davidson really needs to produce double figures for SCON MPs now.
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Ironic if Labour are on 35% because of wealthy, elderly houseowners in the south of England.0
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Other studies show that breakfast clubs are more beneficial for the poorest...Alistair said:
These are meals given to 5 and 6 year olds so yes people are checking.kle4 said:
Question, does anyone actually make sure the kids eat these presumably healthy, free meals, rather than say pick at the bits they like and bin what they don't want? Genuine question, I know little of this policy and its one I like the sound of, but I have no idea if we know it actually works.calum said:
Also pilot study results about performance are good.0 -
I think speaking from a secret location in Scotland to do so was the real optics killer.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.0 -
This chap is very close to Ed, is Ed going to wield the dagger on June 9th
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/8660398663327703060 -
The Day the Polls Turned in 2015, Labour had poll LEADS! Labour haven't had a poll LEAD since 26th April 2016!TheScreamingEagles said:
Tipping point.Alistair said:
I am officially declaring Saturday the 20th of May the Day the Polls Turned.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I am happy with my only bet Tories LT 399.5 Seats
Will not be betting on anything better for Lab
Certainly still no chance of a Lab win
EICIPM sorry I mean TMICIPM0 -
Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble. Remember, when she was a blank sheet of paper she was that far ahead. What's changed in the last couple of weeks is that we've seen what Theresa, or at least the party led by her, stands for and it's turning people off. I'll still vote Tory but I have nowhere else to go and I would never risk Corbyn getting into No. 10. "Not Corbyn" is surely her most appealing factor.kle4 said:
The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.MaxPB said:
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .Mortimer said:
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.MaxPB said:
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.Mortimer said:Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.0 -
Do they actually have a policy on social care?Barnesian said:
In London, where houses are worth a lot, it will help the LibDems.Black_Rook said:
Ah, but how many of those who really care are in a position to make a difference to the election?Wulfrun_Phil said:
There is a difference between liking something and caring enough about something that you change your vote on the back of a reaction one way or another to something.Sandpit said:Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.
An example is rail nationalisation. A lot of people want it, but typically transport only scores 3% or so when people are asked to name their top three issues.
It's pensioners who are the people who are really going to care enough to change their vote if the perception sticks that the Conservatives are really having a go at pensioners. Probably also those approaching the ever receding state pension age (eg. in the case of WASPI women)
Your average home in the Midlands is worth substantially less than £200,000. Most of that value would be preserved. In the North and Wales, it's less than that.
The people most likely to be affected by this policy are, surprise surprise, wealthy homeowners and their heirs in Southern England, who (a) mostly inhabit safe seats and (b) can only rescue themselves from this policy by voting for a socialist, whom they must suspect would tax the crap out of them in the end, whatever he says to get their vote.
The care policy could have a price, but it's liable to be modest, and to be concentrated disproportionately in those constituencies where it will do the least amount of harm. The policy may simply have the effect of making the Conservatives' voter distribution more efficient, rather than depriving them of any meaningful number of MPs.0 -
He who wields the sword...TheScreamingEagles said:This chap is very close to Ed, is Ed going to wield the dagger on June 9th
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/866039866332770306
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Remember it's ICM and ComRes who turnout weight in line with actual previous voting demographics.
Whereas everyone else at least to some degree takes account of what people say their likelihood to vote is.
Time after time after time young people overstate their likelihood to vote.
I think the ICM / ComRes approach is far more likely to be correct - so we need to see the next ICM and ComRes polls. Possibility of ICM in Sun on Sunday - though I don't think we normally get that until the morning.0 -
They were up (from abysmally low scores) in both the SW and SE in that regional YouGov a week ago.AndyJS said:Ironic if Labour are on 35% because of wealthy, elderly houseowners in the south of England.
I'd love to see a poll (not just sub samples or something) on this policy by region, to see if your supposition is born out at all.0 -
Maybe.tlg86 said:
So more reliable?TheScreamingEagles said:Note that Survation poll was an online poll, not a phone poll.
In other words that Survation poll tonight is very similar to their last online poll0 -
I saw the 7 min Trailer before Rogue One at the New Year!welshowl said:
"Dunkirk" movie out July 21st. Disaster impending, averted in the nick of time. (?)Sunil_Prasannan said:I note my fellow PB Tories are panicking like the French Army in 1940.
Dunkirk - tactical defeat, but long-term strategic victory.0 -
Suggesting the Tories might be overstated and Labour understated....there are enough foaming, demented, panic stricken, irrational, hysterical Tories here already.Cosmic said:Occasional lurker here with a question:
Does anyone know what the polls would be showing is GE2015 methodology was used?
Are the same flaws still present (overstating Lab, understating Con) or have amendments been made, which could possibly go too far the other way.0 -
25 ahead I thinkMaxPB said:
Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble. Remember, when she was a blank sheet of paper she was that far ahead. What's changed in he last couple of weeks is that we've seen what Theresa, or at least the party led by her, stands for and it's turning people off. I'll still vote Tory but I have nowhere else to go and I would never risk Corbyn getting into No. 10. "Not Corbyn" is surely her most appealing factor.kle4 said:
The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.MaxPB said:
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .Mortimer said:
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.MaxPB said:
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.Mortimer said:Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
"Lab lucky to get 20%" was the PB Tory narrative.0 -
I still hold that the Lab polling figure is made up in large part of people who aren't actually going to go out and fucking vote so it will be a massive polling miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tipping point.Alistair said:
I am officially declaring Saturday the 20th of May the Day the Polls Turned.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
ICM fieldwork ended last Sunday (14th) so I included it with last week's ELBOW.kle4 said:
Outlier! (or about to pick it up, I'd bet)another_richard said:
ICM still have Labour below 30.kle4 said:
It's a fair point - Labour are up closer to mid 30 than low 30 with everyone now I believe. Either its a polling disaster, or it is real, they will outdo poor Ed M.bigjohnowls said:
PB Tories 3 days ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 30%?AndyJS said:
Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)
PB Tories 3 weeks ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 25%
Labour clearly now well over 30 it seems. Looking like 45-35.0 -
The greatest night of football of our lifetimes!TheScreamingEagles said:
Theresa May = AC MilanoScrapheap_as_was said:It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
Jeremy Corbyn = Liverpool
2017 = Istanbul 20050 -
Perhaps that's why he's got Tom Baldwin to do it, rather than Ed saying it.tlg86 said:
He who wields the sword...TheScreamingEagles said:This chap is very close to Ed, is Ed going to wield the dagger on June 9th
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/866039866332770306
He's thinking about our 200/1 bets0 -
Fair point. My point, which was orthogonal to yours instead of rebuttal, is that house prices have changed a lot over the past years.kyf_100 said:
You're looking at this from the wrong angle. I didn't ask how it plays out for _you_, I asked how it would look if you were that person, with the 450k home as your only major asset.viewcode said:
If your hypothetical person bought a two-up-two-down[1] in 1983 then it would have been for about £20K. Your hypothetical person is sitting on a tax-free unearned profit in excess of £400,000. A £450K house in the North East[2] would be detached, around 4-5 bedrooms with a garden surrounding all four sides and a drive.kyf_100 said:You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
I posted *actual* house prices earlier today. They are here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017
[1] At the time it would have been nearer two-up-three-or-four-down, with a front room, living room, kitchen and converted bathroom downstairs, with a small yard out the back. But that's me being unbearably pedantic.
[2] Before @YorkCity kicks in, York and Harrogate are in Yorkshire GOR
The answer probably isn't "well, I'm sitting on a 400k unearned asset, whoop-de-doo for me" the answer is probably "I grew up with nothing, worked hard all my life, now that Theresa May has come along and said she's going to take the house I raised my kids in, the house I wanted to leave to them, to pay for my old age, even though I've paid my taxes my entire life".
This is TERRIBLE for the Conservatives. And terrible with the kind of voters they should be winning over - older, lower-middle-class, small c conservative types.0 -
I tipped Labour vote share >35 on here the other day - Thursday I think - hope lots of you got on at 9/1....0
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Ruth is unraveling Jim Murphy style !another_richard said:
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
It was the sort of political mistake Gordon Brown would have made.
Davidson really needs to produce double figures for SCON MPs now.0 -
ComRes and ICM still to come, I think?0
-
I imagine this must be how the Hillary team felt.bigjohnowls said:
25 ahead I thinkMaxPB said:
Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble. Remember, when she was a blank sheet of paper she was that far ahead. What's changed in he last couple of weeks is that we've seen what Theresa, or at least the party led by her, stands for and it's turning people off. I'll still vote Tory but I have nowhere else to go and I would never risk Corbyn getting into No. 10. "Not Corbyn" is surely her most appealing factor.kle4 said:
The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.MaxPB said:
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .Mortimer said:
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.MaxPB said:
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.Mortimer said:Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
"Lab lucky to get 20%" was the PB Tory narrative.0 -
Could beAlistair said:
I still hold that the Lab polling figure is made up in large part of people who aren't actually going to go out and fucking vote so it will be a massive polling miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tipping point.Alistair said:
I am officially declaring Saturday the 20th of May the Day the Polls Turned.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It's not just the policies, which aren't all bad, the presentation has been dire, and the obvious attacks that they would meet seem to have gone right over Tory heads. If you are going to do something courageous you had better be able to defend if from attacks that even a dozy beggar like Corbyn could come up with.MaxPB said:Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble. Remember, when she was a blank sheet of paper she was that far ahead. What's changed in the last couple of weeks is that we've seen what Theresa, or at least the party led by her, stands for and it's turning people off. I'll still vote Tory but I have nowhere else to go and I would never risk Corbyn getting into No. 10. "Not Corbyn" is surely her most appealing factor.
0 -
Baldwin was in charge of Ed's communications in the early days of his leadership.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap is very close to Ed, is Ed going to wield the dagger on June 9th
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/866039866332770306
If Ed wields the dagger then things get very interesting.....0 -
Labour rebels are panicking like PB Tories - they assumed Corbyn would do terribly, and so far, in part thanks to the LDs being squeezed rather than improving, he may well better Ed M in votes, and retain a lot more seats than thought previously, so the righteousness of any challenge (should he not resign) is being undermined, unless they start changing the goalposts of (relative) success. Once again, while Corbyn should do badly, they've played expectations so wrong he will be claiming a measure of victory given it is true he has had little support from the MPs.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap is very close to Ed, is Ed going to wield the dagger on June 9th
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/8660398663327703060 -
I think given the headline figure excludes DKs the Con vote could be basically static if the is a surge of DKs turning into Labour. The raw figures will reveal all.kle4 said:
I guess, though given the Tory drop would need to coincide with Tory voters turning abstainers I suppose.Alistair said:
What if you weren't tempted by May at all but couldn't stand to vote Corbyn. This could be Not Voters turning into Lab voters.kle4 said:
Boom, called it 4 weeks ago.Scott_P said:
Still a bit strange to me - if you were tempted by May before, going Corbyn now even if you dislike this latest policy set seems odd.0 -
I was there.Sandpit said:
The greatest night of football of our lifetimes!TheScreamingEagles said:
Theresa May = AC MilanoScrapheap_as_was said:It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.
Jeremy Corbyn = Liverpool
2017 = Istanbul 20050 -
No ComRes, unsure about ICM, Martin Boon is ignoring me.Sunil_Prasannan said:ComRes and ICM still to come, I think?
0 -
I don't think some on here understand how high house prices have become in the south. Literally people could retire on manual jobs pension (like driver, mechanic etc) and own houses worth £500,000. It is common.AndyJS said:Ironic if Labour are on 35% because of wealthy, elderly houseowners in the south of England.
0 -
Too late, it's official.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Er, no, the day the polls turned in 2015, Labour had poll LEADS! Labour haven't had a poll LEAD since 26th April 2016!Alistair said:
I am officially declaring Saturday the 20th of May the Day the Polls Turned.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Yes, looking like ideal result for May. Rebel proof majority and Corbyn still in charge.kle4 said:
Labour rebels are panicking like PB Tories - they assumed Corbyn would do terribly, and so far, in part thanks to the LDs being squeezed rather than improving, he may well better Ed M in votes, and retain a lot more seats than thought previously, so the righteousness of any challenge (should he not resign) is being undermined, unless they start changing the goalposts of (relative) success. Once again, while Corbyn should do badly, they've played expectations so wrong he will be claiming a measure of victory given it is true he has had little support from the MPs.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap is very close to Ed, is Ed going to wield the dagger on June 9th
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/8660398663327703060 -
Nannying? What fucking planet are you living on? She telling people to sort themselves out.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.0 -
Despite Brexit, reconsidering Cameron's political abilities?SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.0 -
They'll still split even if Corbyn does out perform Miliband, which is scarcely a ringing endorsement. I cannot see the PLP suffering Corbyn & McDonnell for another five years. It's inconceivable.kle4 said:
Labour rebels are panicking like PB Tories - they assumed Corbyn would do terribly, and so far, in part thanks to the LDs being squeezed rather than improving, he may well better Ed M in votes, and retain a lot more seats than thought previously, so the righteousness of any challenge (should he not resign) is being undermined, unless they start changing the goalposts of (relative) success. Once again, while Corbyn should do badly, they've played expectations so wrong he will be claiming a measure of victory given it is true he has had little support from the MPs.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap is very close to Ed, is Ed going to wield the dagger on June 9th
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/8660398663327703060 -
Don't think there's going to be a ComRes - it normally comes out early evening - they don't do one every week.Sunil_Prasannan said:ComRes and ICM still to come, I think?
But good chance of an ICM Sun on Sunday - there wasn't one last week and they had them previously a few weeks in a row.0 -
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....0 -
F***! Massive crash at Indy from Sebastian Bourdais. Very similar to Senna's at Imola, thankfully he looks okay.0
-
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.ThreeQuidder said:
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.0 -
Higher taxes on people who take the bloody risk of self employment, have basically no safety net and no such thing as paid holiday or the luxury of paid sick leave. It is a tax on risk, since when has the Tory party ever been in favour of increasing taxes on risk takers and entrepreneurs? It's what I expect from Labour, not our own party. Loads of members I know we're disgusted with the idea of hitting self-employed people.Mortimer said:We're in different wings of the party Max - perhaps I've spent too much time around accountants and tax lawyers, but neo-liberal trickle down economics seems too easy for the wealthy to legally game.
Dividend tax hurts me. Social care changes might. Self employed NI changes hurt many of my colleagues. But opposing them would in my opinion be selfish. Because I think it is the right thing to do.
My wing of party wants more competition and consumer choice. Theresa May's wing believes that the government knows better than the free market. It's not a naturally conservative position, and not one I generally agree with.0 -
Deciding to launch the dementia tax in the middle of an election campaign when there was no need, doesn't bode well for her strategic genius when it comes to negotiating Brexit.midwinter said:
Tsh. How much would Cameron (or any other competent leader) be winning by if they had become PM last year? Name one single well presented and coherent policy that she has presented since becoming PM?Mortimer said:
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.MaxPB said:
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.Mortimer said:Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.
And as for Brexit we still have zero idea what she plans. And frankly if her performance in this campaign so far is anything to go by it seems likely she has about as much idea as we have.0 -
I wonder if we'll see a picture of May in Davidson's pocket:calum said:
Ruth is unraveling Jim Murphy style !another_richard said:
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.
It was the sort of political mistake Gordon Brown would have made.
Davidson really needs to produce double figures for SCON MPs now.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=ed+miliband+in+salmond's+pocket&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjG_o_-tP_TAhXFKsAKHRD7AeYQsAQIOg&biw=1360&bih=612#imgrc=LJwiiR17XPJOnM:&spf=14953157275860 -
I'd have said that about 35% scores for Corbyn Labour in the polls (even if the polls are wrong, I would not have expected them to get quite so high, but even without the social care stuff they were closing in), so it is a very odd world out there, who knows what that lot might end up doing!Jason said:
They'll still split even if Corbyn does out perform Miliband, which is scarcely a ringing endorsement. I cannot see the PLP suffering Corbyn & McDonnell for another five years. It's inconceivable.kle4 said:
Labour rebels are panicking like PB Tories - they assumed Corbyn would do terribly, and so far, in part thanks to the LDs being squeezed rather than improving, he may well better Ed M in votes, and retain a lot more seats than thought previously, so the righteousness of any challenge (should he not resign) is being undermined, unless they start changing the goalposts of (relative) success. Once again, while Corbyn should do badly, they've played expectations so wrong he will be claiming a measure of victory given it is true he has had little support from the MPs.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap is very close to Ed, is Ed going to wield the dagger on June 9th
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/8660398663327703060 -
That might be a fair test if the third parties weren't collapsing. As it is you're asking for 55-35, which is optimistic.MaxPB said:
Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble.kle4 said:
The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.MaxPB said:
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .Mortimer said:
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.MaxPB said:
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.Mortimer said:Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.0 -
0
-
Wields the Ed Stone, surely!The_Apocalypse said:
Baldwin was in charge of Ed's communications in the early days of his leadership.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap is very close to Ed, is Ed going to wield the dagger on June 9th
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/866039866332770306
If Ed wields the dagger then things get very interesting.....0 -
-
The alternative, in terms of social care, is just ignore the problem till the system collapses.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
And perhaps that is the correct approach, in political terms.0 -
kle4 said:
Boom, called it 4 weeks ago.Scott_P said:
Still a bit strange to me - if you were tempted by May before, going Corbyn now even if you dislike this latest policy set seems odd.
As I said in a thread in the week, I think Corbyn - in the nick of time - has played this campaign like a grown-up (rather than the petulant street activist we've all come to know). Smiles at reporters' questions about lightweight personality crap, rules out binning Trident, produces a manifesto full of moon-on-a-stick populism rather than trade deals with Venezuela and renaming every town hall after Bobby Sands.kle4 said:
Still a bit strange to me - if you were tempted by May before, going Corbyn now even if you dislike this latest policy set seems odd.Scott_P said:
I suspect he's done enough to detoxify himself to a lot of wavering social democrats who haven't been impressed by Farron and don't see themselves as Tories.
The solid unchanging core for both main parties is probably 20-25pc each. In a market where the Others have gone home, there's a lot to play for on the shifting sands in between - without many doing a straight swap from Con to Lab.
Labour will still get stuffed, but if May doesnt get a landslide, she won't look like a winner. And I wouldn't bet on Corbyn going fast in such circumstances.0 -
May knew these would be tough decisions but she took them anyway and she is still polling higher than Blair or Thatcher ever got, some headless chicken rightwingers are being ridiculously over the top, the focus is on the marginals in the North, the Midlands and Wales and I will be back phoning there again next weekSeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.0 -
But this time, it's different!Scrapheap_as_was said:Not me... no sir.
hps://twitter.com/election_data/status/866032768593080320
Hey, at some point saying that will be right.0 -
He should have bloody stood. I can see the party getting rid as soon as Brexit is done. She will lose badly to a sane Labour party.TheScreamingEagles said:
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....0 -
As a critic of Mrs May, I'd find it amusing she messed up on one area policy I really do support her on.
Whilst the social care proposals are right in principle, they merely need some tweaks to be a truly great policy.
If you haven't read it, read Alastair's piece from this morning, really glad I asked him to do that piece.0 -
I must confess I had to look orthagonal up!viewcode said:
Fair point. My point, which was orthogonal to yours instead of rebuttal, is that house prices have changed a lot over the past years.kyf_100 said:
You're looking at this from the wrong angle. I didn't ask how it plays out for _you_, I asked how it would look if you were that person, with the 450k home as your only major asset.viewcode said:
If your hypothetical person bought a two-up-two-down[1] in 1983 then it would have been for about £20K. Your hypothetical person is sitting on a tax-free unearned profit in excess of £400,000. A £450K house in the North East[2] would be detached, around 4-5 bedrooms with a garden surrounding all four sides and a drive.kyf_100 said:You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
I posted *actual* house prices earlier today. They are here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017
[1] At the time it would have been nearer two-up-three-or-four-down, with a front room, living room, kitchen and converted bathroom downstairs, with a small yard out the back. But that's me being unbearably pedantic.
[2] Before @YorkCity kicks in, York and Harrogate are in Yorkshire GOR
The answer probably isn't "well, I'm sitting on a 400k unearned asset, whoop-de-doo for me" the answer is probably "I grew up with nothing, worked hard all my life, now that Theresa May has come along and said she's going to take the house I raised my kids in, the house I wanted to leave to them, to pay for my old age, even though I've paid my taxes my entire life".
This is TERRIBLE for the Conservatives. And terrible with the kind of voters they should be winning over - older, lower-middle-class, small c conservative types.
I guess the received wisdom on here is that the people who hate the "dementia tax" are the well off in the south - the scenario I've painted above shows why I think it's absolutely devastating for the Tories in marginal northern constituencies with older small c conservative voters.0 -
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.Charles said:
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.ThreeQuidder said:
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.0 -
Basically, there are Tories on here criticising May for not offering enough sweeties to the electorate.0
-
You are still wrong on Mrs May, when did Cameron ever get more than 40% in a general election? Cameron did the hard work to get the Tories back to power to be fair but May is now taking the tough decisions the country needs from its governmentTheScreamingEagles said:
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....0 -
The combined GB-wide score for SNP+PC+Speaker and all the odds and sods will be something like 5.3% - this leaves 9.7% to play with. The Liberal Democrats are unlikely to do significantly worse than they did last time, when they managed 8.1%; even if they go as low as 7% that still leaves only 2.7% for both Ukip and the Greens. The Greens alone will probably get somewhere close to that (they were on 3.8% last time, though they're liable to be squeezed by Labour this time.)kle4 said:
Just guesses at absolute floors of support makes that difficult stillThreeQuidder said:
Exactly. Can LD+UKIP+GRN+SNP+PC+OTH go sub 15?RobD said:
Others being SNP? Can't see that happening.ThreeQuidder said:
From 20 minutes ago:chestnut said:Survation Headline Voting Intention
CON 46%; LAB 34%; LD 8%; UKIP 3%; Others 8%
"This is still consistent with a Tory share of 45-46% pending more polling. And that is a healthy majority unless all the Others collapse and Labour get 40%."
5+3+2+4+1
Anyone think those scores or worse are possible?
Let's say 5.3% for the SNP, Plaid and minor parties, 7% for the Lib Dems, 2.5% for the Greens and 2.5% for Ukip, who are standing in fewer seats than the Greens and appear to be evaporating like a puddle in strong sunshine. That gets us up to just over 17%. If Ukip do unexpectedly well then the SNP, LDs and others could make somewhere between 18-19%. Leaving 81-82% for the big two.
A Con total of 45% could put Labour on up to 37%, but personally I still expect the Tories to do better (and, necessarily, Labour worse) than that. As I mentioned earlier, the Conservatives' 38% from the last election, plus 50% of the 2015 Ukip vote and an approximate doubling of support in Scotland gets the Conservatives up to 45% on its own, and Labour's secondary polling numbers are still bad, which implies that there should be net voter gains from them at least as well. Certainly a Conservative figure of below 45% - assuming that Ukip doesn't mysteriously rise from the grave - would imply either a net flow of 2015 voters from Con to Lab, or that Labour was doing as well or better in attracting 2015 Ukip voters than the Tories, or both. Regardless of caterwauling over elderly handouts, that makes no sense.0 -
Winter fuel payments to OAPs is devolved to the Scottish government, so it's irrelevant what May plans to do with England and Wales.another_richard said:
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.0 -
Remember to tell them that WFA is being taken away from people like them but Scottish millionaires will still get it.HYUFD said:
May knew these would be tough decisions but she took them anyway and she is still polling higher than Blair or Thatcher ever got, some headless chicken rightwingers are being ridiculously over the top, the focus is on the marginals in the North, the Midlands and Wales and I will be back phoning there again next weekSeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
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If it is any consolation, I did urge him to stand again.MaxPB said:
He should have bloody stood. I can see the party getting rid as soon as Brexit is done. She will lose badly to a sane Labour party.TheScreamingEagles said:
I take no pleasure in being right on Mrs May.SeanT said:
Just one more major error from the Tories divides us from a Hung Parliament. That's how shit she is.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was right about these social care policies, but I fear you were right about TMay, and I was deluding myself. She's just Not Corbyn. That's her only appeal.
I despise her nannying policies and she isn't even any good at low, cunning politics, on the basis of this campaign, so far.
Sigh.
There's one person who is really depressed tonight.
George Osborne, if he had decided to stand again as an MP....0 -
Thank you. Given the anecdotage I'm willing to believe the slow death of the Libs, but I'm still dubious about Lab being 35%. The noise from the PB panicteriat is drowning out the thinking.Black_Rook said:
I think that Labour could end up doing that well given a sufficiently tight squeeze on the also-ran parties, but the Tories won't do that badly. With Ukip where they are, it implies either that nearly as many 2015 Kippers are voting for Labour as for the Conservatives; or that the Ukip-Tory conversation rate remains very solid, but that a significant number (by which I mean, perhaps as many as a million) 2015 Tories are now planning on voting for Labour.viewcode said:
I don't know. I was hoping you or @BlackRook could tell me. I'm going to have to Google RodCrosby, aren't I?...AndyJS said:
Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)
No significant proportion of the 38% who weren't willing to abandon Cameron for an unthreatening figure like Ed Miliband are now going to think that it's a marvellous idea to put Jeremy Corbyn in 10 Downing St. It make absolutely no sense.0 -
No I'm not, I'm asking for 48-28, which is about where we were before the nation realised that Theresa is Ed Miliband in a skirt.ThreeQuidder said:
That might be a fair test if the third parties weren't collapsing. As it is you're asking for 55-35, which is optimistic.MaxPB said:
Against Corbyn with the background of the right uniting after Brexit? A 9-12 point lead is pitiful. She should be 20+ points ahead of the Labour rabble.kle4 said:
The evidence is she is well out in front, on an improve score from last time.MaxPB said:
She is? I see no evidence of that. She is struggling to beat the worst ever Labour leader and worst ever Lib Dem leader. .Mortimer said:
Some of us want electoral strategies that rely on more than winning LD voters over and getting less than 40% of the vote.MaxPB said:
This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.Mortimer said:Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.
Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.
It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".
The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.
I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.
I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.
Mrs May is making Conservatism popular again.0 -
PAYE nics are c.26%, self employed nics are too low.MaxPB said:
Higher taxes on people who take the bloody risk of self employment, have basically no safety net and no such thing as paid holiday or the luxury of paid sick leave. It is a tax on risk, since when has the Tory party ever been in favour of increasing taxes on risk takers and entrepreneurs? It's what I expect from Labour, not our own party. Loads of members I know we're disgusted with the idea of hitting self-employed people.Mortimer said:We're in different wings of the party Max - perhaps I've spent too much time around accountants and tax lawyers, but neo-liberal trickle down economics seems too easy for the wealthy to legally game.
Dividend tax hurts me. Social care changes might. Self employed NI changes hurt many of my colleagues. But opposing them would in my opinion be selfish. Because I think it is the right thing to do.
My wing of party wants more competition and consumer choice. Theresa May's wing believes that the government knows better than the free market. It's not a naturally conservative position, and not one I generally agree with.
This is a great country in which to take risks. I should know - I founded a business in '07, went full time after leaving uni and now have employees and a comfortable living. What allowed this to happen was hard work, a grammar school and Oxbridge college that gave me confidence and a loving family. It was not because the dividend taxes or NICs were low.0 -
Hands up who thinks Nick Timothy is a match for Martin Selmayr?0
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WFA reserved until 2019 !JonathanD said:
Winter fuel payments to OAPs is devolved to the Scottish government, so it's irrelevant what May plans to do with England and Wales.another_richard said:
Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.another_richard said:I wonder if its a cumulative effect:
Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires
People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.
If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.
When I read about Davidson boasting about it I had an OMFG moment.
Aside from aggravating anyone who might lose their WFA in England and Wales it also trashed May's 'strong and stable' and 'united country' talk.0
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