politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With postal voting just starting CON maintains emphatic lead

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll

Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)

Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?

Yes

NOC 12/1 WH

Labour on 35%.

The irony would be Corbyn loses the election on the share of the vote Blair got in 2005.

Why was this thread posted with the tag 'Coalition'?

For those who think Labour could actually do well out of this care policy I suggest looking at betting on London seats. I've just taken the 7/2 that Ladbrokes are offering on Labour holding Ealing Central and Acton.

I note my fellow PB Tories are panicking like the French Army in 1940.

This thread is going to be a keeper...

Scott_P said:

@ShippersUnbound: Tory high command says tighter polls will actually help because it raises the risk of Corbyn as PM, an argument they've failed to land yet

It's coming.

Survation
Tories 46%
Labour 34%
LD 8%
UKIP 3% (All post manifesto)
https://mobile.twitter.com/Survation/status/866035811719954433

SeanT said:

Can someone Baxter this, please. I'm too depressed by the fact I was completely right.

Posted downthread:

Con 346, Lab 228, LD 6
Majority 42

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll

Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)

Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?

Yes

I don't think they are. I think it's a major polling error. We'll find out in 19 days.

With UKIP unwinding it could be some of their voter could be returning back to Labour.

I pointed out several times everyone who assumed the bulk of 2015 Kippers were going to vote Tory in 2017 were making the mistake many Labour supports made between 2010 and 2015, that about 50% of 2010 Lib Dems would vote Labour in 2015.

viewcode said:

kyf_100 said:

You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.

You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.

How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?

If your hypothetical person bought a two-up-two-down[1] in 1983 then it would have been for about £20K. Your hypothetical person is sitting on a tax-free unearned profit in excess of £400,000. A £450K house in the North East[2] would be detached, around 4-5 bedrooms with a garden surrounding all four sides and a drive.

I posted *actual* house prices earlier today. They are here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2017

[1] At the time it would have been nearer two-up-three-or-four-down, with a front room, living room, kitchen and converted bathroom downstairs, with a small yard out the back. But that's me being unbearably pedantic.
[2] Before @YorkCity kicks in, York and Harrogate are in Yorkshire GOR

You're looking at this from the wrong angle. I didn't ask how it plays out for _you_, I asked how it would look if you were that person, with the 450k home as your only major asset.

The answer probably isn't "well, I'm sitting on a 400k unearned asset, whoop-de-doo for me" the answer is probably "I grew up with nothing, worked hard all my life, now that Theresa May has come along and said she's going to take the house I raised my kids in, the house I wanted to leave to them, to pay for my old age, even though I've paid my taxes my entire life".

This is TERRIBLE for the Conservatives. And terrible with the kind of voters they should be winning over - older, lower-middle-class, small c conservative types.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/866036254361751553

The_Apocalypse said:

ThreeQuidder said:

The_Apocalypse said:

ThreeQuidder said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.

What alternative do you propose?

National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.

Putting up general taxation?

I think we'd have to, so yes. I'd prefer to pay more tax as a young person in order to fund social care, rather than leave the burden to individual families.

And what would you bet that the reaction to such a proposal would be just as toxic and negative? It's a classic 'people want x but won't pay for it' situation. That's presumably why Labour for one say it could be paid a number of ways, without committing to their preferred way, for fear of people disagreeing. The LDs can be more realistic since no one but a handful will read it anyway.

Mortimer said:

Kudos to Corbo's core vote campaigning skills.

Higher vote share but dreadfully inefficient. Going to a bad night for the PLP - lose lots of seats but keep the leadership.

This is nothing to do with Corbyn. It's all to do with how rubbish Theresa and her team are at politics. Had dinner tonight with a couple of donors who have gone on strike, both had been asked for six figure sums but declined. Theresa May is simultaneously anti-business and in favour of higher taxes.

It is toxic and I hope by the end of the weekend the manifesto is "clarified".

The removal of the WFA from England and not Scotland was real amateur hour politics. Remove it from everyone and force Nicola to raise taxes in Scotland to pay for it.

I don't think we will lose but gone are the days of 120+ majorities, we're looking at a 50-60 majority, which against the worst Labour front bench ever put forwards is pitiful.

I can't remember a worse Tory manifesto than this one. I said it last night and I'll say it again, Theresa May has achieved what Tony and Gordon couldn't. She has shifted the UK's political centre to the left, quite significantly as well. We should not be playing in Ed Miliband's lawn, we should be forcing Labour onto our turf. She's just really, really awful at this stuff it seems.

Jason said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Will Mrs May become the shortest serving Tory leader since IDS?

Oh gawd not you as well..........the hysteria's contagious here. We've gone from a landslide to a 100 seat majority to a 70 seat majority to a 40 seat majority to a hung parliamnet to May been toppled, all in the space of four days.

WTF????? Are there no sane people here??

TSE is trolling.

The broiling mood keeps the threads moving. Consistency is for the uninteresting!

dyedwoolie said:

Scott_P said:

@ShippersUnbound: YouGov/Sunday Times
On the changes to care funding 35% said they supported them, 40% they opposed them

That doesn't suggest the labour surge is due solely to social care. The Tories have also only slipped by one point. I think this is polarisation to a two party fight. The Tory share is relatively firm but showing a little sign of buckling, it's all about labour support on the up. They are running out of votes to squeeze though......

the lib dem and green vote is being clearly squeezed. Farron is toast. we are back to two party politics . TMIPM and what she will achieve on a june 8 is keeping corbyn as LOTO and will prevent a break away centre party which is the biggest threat to tory rule. the ones who should be worried tonight are lib dems , they are finished . time for them to pack up and go home . how will they justify their presence in HoL if they have sub 5 MPs?

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll

Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)

Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?

Yes

I don't think they are. I think it's a major polling error. We'll find out in 19 days.

With UKIP unwinding it could be some of their voter could be returning back to Labour.

I pointed out several times everyone who assumed the bulk of 2015 Kippers were going to vote Tory in 2017 were making the mistake many Labour supports made between 2010 and 2015, that about 50% of 2010 Lib Dems would vote Labour in 2015.

I think we have to get used to the idea that 35% in a two party shootout (UK-wide) is a poor result. 45/35 is a big victory for May.

chrisb said:

kyf_100 said:

Charles said:

bigjohnowls said:

surbiton said:

kle4 said:

nunu said:

kle4 said:

chestnut said:

The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

Got it in one.

Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.

Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.

They only have to elect Labour to keep it.

I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.

Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?

why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?

Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.

More fundamentally:

The taxpayer can't afford to pay for everyone

And society has a duty to look after those less fortunate

@ShippersUnbound: One of Corbyn's closest aides tells Labour candidates to tell voters about the manifesto not the leader. Leaked recording in Sunday Times

Black_Rook said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Sandpit said:

Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.

There is a difference between liking something and caring enough about something that you change your vote on the back of a reaction one way or another to something.

An example is rail nationalisation. A lot of people want it, but typically transport only scores 3% or so when people are asked to name their top three issues.

It's pensioners who are the people who are really going to care enough to change their vote if the perception sticks that the Conservatives are really having a go at pensioners. Probably also those approaching the ever receding state pension age (eg. in the case of WASPI women)

Ah, but how many of those who really care are in a position to make a difference to the election?

Your average home in the Midlands is worth substantially less than £200,000. Most of that value would be preserved. In the North and Wales, it's less than that.

The people most likely to be affected by this policy are, surprise surprise, wealthy homeowners and their heirs in Southern England, who (a) mostly inhabit safe seats and (b) can only rescue themselves from this policy by voting for a socialist, whom they must suspect would tax the crap out of them in the end, whatever he says to get their vote.

The care policy could have a price, but it's liable to be modest, and to be concentrated disproportionately in those constituencies where it will do the least amount of harm. The policy may simply have the effect of making the Conservatives' voter distribution more efficient, rather than depriving them of any meaningful number of MPs.

In London, where houses are worth a lot, it will help the LibDems.

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/866036073494872064

surbiton said:

Floater said:

Freggles said:

Corbyn on 35 even in an outlier with temporary effects is still a damning indictment

lets not forget that people said polls would close when tories had a huge lead and people might be nervous of a huge majority.

People will be more than nervous of what Corbyn would mean as pm.

Do not worry ! CORBYN WILL NOT BE PM. You can safely vote Labour !

I agree Roll Up Roll up

Corbyn great as underdog as proved by both leadership elections

viewcode said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll

Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)

Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?

I don't know. I was hoping you or @BlackRook could tell me. I'm going to have to Google RodCrosby, aren't I?...

I think that Labour could end up doing that well given a sufficiently tight squeeze on the also-ran parties, but the Tories won't do that badly. With Ukip where they are, it implies either that nearly as many 2015 Kippers are voting for Labour as for the Conservatives; or that the Ukip-Tory conversation rate remains very solid, but that a significant number (by which I mean, perhaps as many as a million) 2015 Tories are now planning on voting for Labour.

No significant proportion of the 38% who weren't willing to abandon Cameron for an unthreatening figure like Ed Miliband are now going to think that it's a marvellous idea to put Jeremy Corbyn in 10 Downing St. It make absolutely no sense.

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

ThreeQuidder said:

The_Apocalypse said:

ThreeQuidder said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.

What alternative do you propose?

National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.

Putting up general taxation?

I think we'd have to, so yes. I'd prefer to pay more tax as a young person in order to fund social care, rather than leave the burden to individual families.

And what would you bet that the reaction to such a proposal would be just as toxic and negative? It's a classic 'people want x but won't pay for it' situation. That's presumably why Labour for one say it could be paid a number of ways, without committing to their preferred way, for fear of people disagreeing. The LDs can be more realistic since no one but a handful will read it anyway.

I'm talking about what I'd prefer, not necessarily what the public would like. In reality, both policies would be unpopular, although the idea of a National Care Service may well be less unpopular than the May policy.

Charles said:

chrisb said:

kyf_100 said:

Charles said:

bigjohnowls said:

surbiton said:

kle4 said:

nunu said:

kle4 said:

chestnut said:

The problem with this care proposal is that it is being perceived as inheritance tax.

Got it in one.

Nah, the problem with it is thatit is a shit policy. I rather pay higher National Insurance then this.

Being shit never prevented people liking a policy. The Triple Lock is a shit policy, people are still crying about it potentially being taken away.

They only have to elect Labour to keep it.

I agree with the removal of the Triple Lock

I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.

To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.

The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.

Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?

why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?

Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.

More fundamentally:

The taxpayer can't afford to pay for everyone

And society has a duty to look after those less fortunate

This has to be how it is defended. It's a tough line to sell on such an emotional policy, and there will be heartbreaking instances of the policy being outright dickish to some people, but in the overall, is that principle sound? Is it sound if tweaked a little? Is it the best immediate option we have, outside of 'National Care Service, paid for by TBD'?

ThreeQuidder said:

chestnut said:

Survation Headline Voting Intention
CON 46%; LAB 34%; LD 8%; UKIP 3%; Others 8%

From 20 minutes ago:

"This is still consistent with a Tory share of 45-46% pending more polling. And that is a healthy majority unless all the Others collapse and Labour get 40%."

46% is better than Thatcher or Blair ever got

ThreeQuidder said:

SeanT said:

TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.

Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.

Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.

Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.

I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.

bigjohnowls said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll

Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)

Does anyone really believe Labour are on 35%?

PB Tories 3 days ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 30%?


PB Tories 3 weeks ago Does anyone really believe Labour are on 25%

I wouldn't describe AndyJS as a PB Tory but Labour have run a surprisingly good campaign.

Though perhaps we shouldn't be surprised as Corbyn ran two surprisingly good leadership campaigns.

Fickle buggers, those voters.

It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.

another_richard said:

I wonder if its a cumulative effect:

Remove triple lock
Care threshold
WFA removal
WFA retained for Scottish millionaires

People are probably going to accept the odd policy they don't like but if you keep chipping away then suddenly you might get a tipping point for a lot of people.

It was the Scottish one that was the real balls up.

If only Mrs May had been aware how badly the prospect on sending English taxpayers' money to Scotland played in England in 2015.

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/866038488369704960

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Can someone Baxter this, please. I'm too depressed by the fact I was completely right.

Posted downthread:

Con 346, Lab 228, LD 6
Majority 42

Ignore Baxter, the Tories are getting their biggest swing in the North, the Midlands, Wales and Scotland it is London and the South where Corbyn is up but he cannot win many new seats there

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/mshelicat/status/866038488369704960

Tory wobble confirmed!

Labour up and Conservative down is the trend... The Big Mo is with Jezza!

I think next week we'll see Lab maybe getting within 5% of Con in one or two polls... And then it'll gradually move back to TM in the final stages.

She'll get over the line with a small (30-40) seat majority but Labour will be well and truly in the game for 2022 and TM will be damaged by the relative failure of a small majority and an election that many will view a waste of time.

@murali_s It's terrifying how utterly dire Britain's political class are. Both May and Corbyn are walking disasters in regard to the Brexit negotiations.

tlg86 said:

For those with BT Sport, Fernando Alonso is about to do his first qualifying run at Indianapolis (on ESPN).

Chance of poll tomorrow.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/866031301031342081

I am officially declaring Saturday the 20th of May the Day the Polls Turned.

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

ThreeQuidder said:

The_Apocalypse said:

ThreeQuidder said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.

What alternative do you propose?

National Care Service. I'm with Labour, on this one.

Putting up general taxation?

I think we'd have to, so yes. I'd prefer to pay more tax as a young person in order to fund social care, rather than leave the burden to individual families.

And what would you bet that the reaction to such a proposal would be just as toxic and negative? It's a classic 'people want x but won't pay for it' situation. That's presumably why Labour for one say it could be paid a number of ways, without committing to their preferred way, for fear of people disagreeing. The LDs can be more realistic since no one but a handful will read it anyway.

I'm talking about what I'd prefer, not necessarily what the public would like. In reality, both policies would be unpopular, although the idea of a National Care Service may well be less unpopular than the May policy.

The numbers on a National Care Service are horrific though. It's 5p on income tax for everyone. 25%, 45% and 50% rates. Maybe 3p on income tax and 4p on Employer NI to try and hide it a little.

If anyone thinks that this policy has gone down badly, anyone proposing seriously a 5p rise in income tax would be shot down completely.

Who was it that said politics was the art of the possible?

Scrapheap_as_was said:

It's nice to see one of these typical pb explosions of wobble bottomitis. A rare night of fun for the Labour team too...... OGH been able to change the header too add to the fun.

Theresa May = AC Milano

Jeremy Corbyn = Liverpool

2017 = Istanbul 2005

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/866031301031342081

Boom, called it 4 weeks ago.

Still a bit strange to me - if you were tempted by May before, going Corbyn now even if you dislike this latest policy set seems odd.

What if you weren't tempted by May at all but couldn't stand to vote Corbyn. This could be Not Voters turning into Lab voters.

Question now is where is Labour's ceiling? Does the social care/winter payment stuff open things up again for them? One thing is for sure, for them to go any higher they need to start converting Tory voters.

Ishmael_Z said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

I note my fellow PB Tories are panicking like the French Army in 1940.

Hey, maybe you haven’t been keeping up with current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal!

44 v 35 is an ass-kicking??