politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the votes moved to UKIP and how they’ve moved away with CO

CarlottaVance said:

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Andy Street Yes

And to be fair to him, his name and background probably made the difference.

Yes, I think 'Joe Bloggs Conservative' wouldn't have done anything like as well as the John Lewis Theresa May candidate.

CarlottaVance said:

Guide to the PNS results:

10 facts that help explain the national share results

Earlier I posted the BBC’s national share figures, with a note about how they are calculated. (See 2.53pm) Here they are again.

Conservatives: 38%

Labour: 27%

Lib Dems: 18%

Ukip: 5%

Conservative lead: 11 points

Last night Labour sources were saying that these figures would provide the benchmark by which they would judge the elections. They may feel differently today. Here are 10 facts that put the national share figures into perspective.

1 - The Tory PNS figure is the highest it has been in local elections since 2008 (when it was 41%).

2 - The Labour PNS figure is the lowest it has been in local elections since 2010 (when it was 27%).

3 - The Tory PNS lead over Labour is the highest it has been since 2009 (when it was 15 points)

4 - The Lib Dem PNS figure is the highest it has been since 2010 (when it was 26%).

5- The Ukip PNS figure is lower than it has ever been (although the BBC only started producing a national share figure for Ukip in 2013) and it is less than half what it was last year (when it was 12%).

6 - The Tory lead is almost double what local election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher predicted, on the basis of how parties have been performing in local elections recently.

7 - The PNS figures suggest Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is going backwards (it was on 31% PNS in last year’s local elections).

8 - And the figures suggest the Tories are surging ahead since last year (when they were on 30% PNS).

9 - The Tory lead is bigger than it was at the general election, when the Conservatives got 38% of the GB vote and Labour got 31%.

10 - But the Tory lead is smaller than opinion polls suggest. The Financial Times’ opinion poll tracker, which is based on a time-weighted average of all the main pollster’s most recent polls, currently has the Tories on 46% and Labour on 29%. The PNS figure could be taken as evidence that the polls are overstating the Tory lead, although it is only a reflection of what would happen if people voted across the whole of Britain as they did in the locals. As explained earlier, in general elections some people vote differently, and the 1980s experience suggests the governing party could do even better in a general election.

Chameleon said:

Sion Simon looks like he's about to cry. My heart goes out to him, not.

AndyJS said:

52% in WM voted Lab, LD, Green, Comm in the first round. Same sort of thing as Bristol.

DavidL said:

Final score in Scotland 605 Unionists, 450 Indys.

SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

Awesome news for the West Midlands, exactly the sort of person we should be encouraging into politics. Well done to Andy and all that worked to get him elected over the past six months.

And up against exactly the person who shouldn't be.

2015
Labour   20,279
LD       16,257
Con      10,266
Green     9,675

2017
Labour   12,989
LD       13,570
Con       5,408
Green     3,005

DavidL said:

Final score in Scotland 605 Unionists, 450 Indys.

SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.

IanB2 said:

UKIP zero seats now 1/33 BF.

The 1/5 and better we could get up to this morning must be the safest bet for June 8th...

DavidL said:

Final score in Scotland 605 Unionists, 450 Indys.

SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.

MikeL said:

murali_s said:

No point putting any spin on this, today has been a disaster for Labour.

Tory 120+ majority pretty much nailed on all things being equal.

Tory electoral fraud scandal only hope for Labour.

Yes - I think the only thing that could go wrong now for Con is the CPS.

If I were them I would try to stall the CPS announcement until after the GE - could they argue it would be wrong to make announcement during campaign?

If not, they should be working very hard right now on exactly how to manage the media reaction if CPS announces charges.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/860529474236026880

AlastairMeeks said:

The West Midlands mayoralty puts the seal on what has been a spectacular set of results for the Conservatives. They're on course for a huge three figure majority.

Commiserations to @Pulpstar for what was a value loser tip of Sion Simon.

HYUFD said:

The projected national voteshare is Tory 38% Lab 27% LD 18% UKIP 5%. Given a lot of that LD local vote will be a Tory national vote I could see a general election result of Tory 45% Lab 27% LD 11% UKIP 5%

rcs1000 said:

The next time the Scots have another independence referendum will be when oil is north of $150. Which might be... errr... never.

RobD said:

MikeL said:

murali_s said:

No point putting any spin on this, today has been a disaster for Labour.

Tory 120+ majority pretty much nailed on all things being equal.

Tory electoral fraud scandal only hope for Labour.

Yes - I think the only thing that could go wrong now for Con is the CPS.

If I were them I would try to stall the CPS announcement until after the GE - could they argue it would be wrong to make announcement during campaign?

If not, they should be working very hard right now on exactly how to manage the media reaction if CPS announces charges.

And the deadlines for charges are set by when the expenses were initially declared - so any day now as the election was on the 7th of May 2015.

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

Final score in Scotland 605 Unionists, 450 Indys.

SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.

That vote projected on to Holyrood 2021 would, I presume, produce a weak minority SNP government, and no indyref2.

If TMay decides that Sturgeon can go fish (which I think she will), and if the Nats do weaken further at Holrood, then we might not see another indyref til the late 2020s, 2030s? When the Nats next win a proper majority.

Lots of ifs, though.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

MikeL said:

murali_s said:

No point putting any spin on this, today has been a disaster for Labour.

Tory 120+ majority pretty much nailed on all things being equal.

Tory electoral fraud scandal only hope for Labour.

Yes - I think the only thing that could go wrong now for Con is the CPS.

If I were them I would try to stall the CPS announcement until after the GE - could they argue it would be wrong to make announcement during campaign?

If not, they should be working very hard right now on exactly how to manage the media reaction if CPS announces charges.

And the deadlines for charges are set by when the expenses were initially declared - so any day now as the election was on the 7th of May 2015.

No it's two years from the date of when the MPs submitted their expenses returns.

They have, I believe, up to 5 weeks from election day to submit their return.

Some filed pretty quickly, some did it within a fortnight, and some waited until the last minute.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

The solitary UKIPper reminds me of the odd SDP councillors that were knocking about until quite recently in Bridlington, somewhere in Wales, and a solitary Green defector (obviously with a GSOH) in Solihull.

Wonder whether a lone UKIP survivor will get a mention on PB in 2042-ish? Or even a Labour or LD survivor the way the wind is blowing just now!

RobD said:

Another CON gain from the LDs in Cornwall.

Jason said:

RobD said:

MikeL said:

murali_s said:

No point putting any spin on this, today has been a disaster for Labour.

Tory 120+ majority pretty much nailed on all things being equal.

Tory electoral fraud scandal only hope for Labour.

Yes - I think the only thing that could go wrong now for Con is the CPS.

If I were them I would try to stall the CPS announcement until after the GE - could they argue it would be wrong to make announcement during campaign?

If not, they should be working very hard right now on exactly how to manage the media reaction if CPS announces charges.

And the deadlines for charges are set by when the expenses were initially declared - so any day now as the election was on the 7th of May 2015.

I would advise the Tories to stay a million miles away from interfering with the CPS. Imagine what would happen if the CPS said they had been leant on over the timing of an announcement. It would be worse than the decision itself. The Tories have had plenty of time to ready themselves for bad news, and even if it does come to that, it won't make any difference to the outcome of the election.

Jason said:

What a dreadful oaf Sion Simon is. God, it's no wonder he lost.

nunu said:

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/860528582757634050

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

Another CON gain from the LDs in Cornwall.

I'm sorry, but you must be mistaken.

Carolus_Rex said:

nunu said:

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/860528582757634050

Now I will take the piss out of Sion Simon as enthusiastically as anyone, but that's just mean.

Jason said:

RobD said:

MikeL said:

murali_s said:

No point putting any spin on this, today has been a disaster for Labour.

Tory 120+ majority pretty much nailed on all things being equal.

Tory electoral fraud scandal only hope for Labour.

Yes - I think the only thing that could go wrong now for Con is the CPS.

If I were them I would try to stall the CPS announcement until after the GE - could they argue it would be wrong to make announcement during campaign?

If not, they should be working very hard right now on exactly how to manage the media reaction if CPS announces charges.

And the deadlines for charges are set by when the expenses were initially declared - so any day now as the election was on the 7th of May 2015.

I would advise the Tories to stay a million miles away from interfering with the CPS. Imagine what would happen if the CPS said they had been leant on over the timing of an announcement. It would be worse than the decision itself. The Tories have had plenty of time to ready themselves for bad news, and even if it does come to that, it won't make any difference to the outcome of the election.

Carolus_Rex said:

nunu said:

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/860528582757634050

Now I will take the piss out of Sion Simon as enthusiastically as anyone, but that's just mean.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sion Simon went to Oxford?

That explains so much.

Scott_P said:

Hmmmm

@JeremyCliffe: Hunch: the Street and Burnham elections will see the locus of Britain's metropolitan revival shift from Manchester to Birmingham.

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

Carolus_Rex said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

The solitary UKIPper reminds me of the odd SDP councillors that were knocking about until quite recently in Bridlington, somewhere in Wales, and a solitary Green defector (obviously with a GSOH) in Solihull.

Wonder whether a lone UKIP survivor will get a mention on PB in 2042-ish? Or even a Labour or LD survivor the way the wind is blowing just now!

There are still a few Liberal councillors aren't there?

They lost 3 last night according to BBC data.

I even have a special column for them in my spreadsheet. There were two in North Yorkshire (lost to Con) and one in Worcestershire (lost to the fake liberals)