politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the votes moved to UKIP and how they’ve moved away with CO
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Oh no! Did you have to break out the emergency Scottish Tory tsunami klaxon?TheScreamingEagles said:
The klaxon broke through over use.RobD said:So, what have I missed in Scotland while I've been busy on the English councils?
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Mr. Surbiton, I must agree with you, l and the general consensus. A Conservative majority of 48 looks a shade low.
Mr. Brooke, reference to the English language comment, or has he uttered something else daft?0 -
Very nice, that's more than doubling the number of councillors.Black_Rook said:
Seat changes so far:RobD said:So, what have I missed in Scotland while I've been busy on the English councils?
SNP -17
Con +142
Lab -103
Ind -22
LD -2
Green +2
Edit: Tories mugging Labour all over the country. They are now the second party on Edinburgh City Council, one seat behind the SNP.0 -
justin124 said:
' I suspect that Labour will be content with its results in Scotland given previous expectations. Whilst they are well down on 2012 , they have not collapsed - and I rather fancy their chances of taking East Lothian from the SNP next month.'
DavidL said:
'I tend to agree. Really bad but could have been so much worse. Professor Fisher may have got some things right but his forecast of 6% for SLAB is just miles off.
Edit, in fact on the same basis as I set out below they are on exactly 18% which is exactly what I forecast for them. As with the Tories and the SNP their actual percentage may be 1-2% better than that. '
The Labour setback in Scotland was very widely expected , and I suspect the much greater shock will be the relatively poor SNP performance. It does occur to me that they could now suffer a slide into the mid-30% - 35% range which could open up opportunities for the various pro-Union parties to reverse a fair bit of the 2015 tsunami - particularly if Labour moves up to the early to mid 20s%.0 -
Worsley, Heywood and Middleton, Rochdale, Bolton NE, Bury South, Oldham East and Saddleworth. Ordinarilly wouldn't really be marginals to be honest.SirNorfolkPassmore said:Which are the marginals in the Greater Manchester Combined Authority area? Could be worth a flutter on a few Labour holds.
Interesting that Burnham was runner-up to Corbyn in 2015, with about a third of his vote, yet got 63% here. I'm no statistician, but that does definitely mean Jez will win the General Election with a whopping 189% of the vote... the maths don't lie.0 -
The 115 , I believe, was for England only.SeanT said:A reminder of the Rallings Thrasher predictions:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/25/labour-predicted-to-lose-hundreds-of-seats-in-local-elections
"They forecast nets gains of 115 seats for the Tories and 85 for the Lib Dems, and net losses of 75 for Labour and 105 for Ukip."
Good guess on UKIP, but whoah elsewhere
Tories have SO FAR gained 306, the LDs are DOWN by 22, and Labour have lost 141. So far.
So in terms of seats the Tories are doing almost three times better than expected, Labour almost twice as bad.0 -
First Sea Lord Sir Paul Nuttall is a pillock.IanB2 said:
Burnley. Not too far from Nuttall country. Meanwhile he's pratting about in Lincolnshire when even Hartlepool would have been a better choice.RobD said:And UKIP on one seat?.... titters
Only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would contest a Tory held seat when the Tories are polling in the high 40s/50%0 -
I was not trying to be OTT but provide the information unfiltered. I did actually start to apply a filter earlier but did not know what to assume.Black_Rook said:
If I may be so bold, it seems a little OTT to assume that the Conservatives will gobble up the entire Ukip vote. They clearly still have a constituency out there, just one that's too small to get them anywhere much under FPTP, even at local authority level.Nemtynakht said:I'll post this again from earlier. The 67 labour held seats where the Con + UKIP was greater in 2015. No other swing needed! The number is the total number above the labour total.
Newcastle-under-Lyme 6602
Mansfield 6535
Walsall North 6185
Stoke-on-Trent South 5759
North East Derbyshire 5748
Dagenham and Rainham 5512
Wakefield 5249
Hartlepool 5232
Dewsbury 5198
Halifax 5193
Dudley North 4932
Hyndburn 4754
Stoke-on-Trent North 4706
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 4667
Birmingham, Northfield 4597
Barrow and Furness 4275
City of Chester 4055
Penistone and Stocksbridge 4015
Bridgend 3984
Heywood and Middleton 3969
Gedling 3944
Alyn and Deeside 3917
Great Grimsby 3877
Eltham 3788
Ilford North 3766
Bolton North East 3740
Rother Valley 3648
Copeland 3584
Wolverhampton South West 3509
Bishop Auckland 3507
Wrexham 3241
Delyn 3220
Scunthorpe 3195
Bristol East 3172
Clwyd South 3078
Enfield North 3047
Blackpool South 3028
Batley and Spen 3023
Workington 2852
Lancaster and Fleetwood 2795
Brentford and Isleworth 2738
Newport West 2624
Bradford South 2607
Coventry North West 2592
Oldham East and Saddleworth 2555
Coventry South 2521
Chorley 2465
Wirral West 2355
Darlington 2234
Hove 2029
Stoke-on-Trent Central 1829
Newport East 1761
Southampton, Test 1756
Worsley and Eccles South 1742
Ealing Central and Acton 1652
Ynys Môn 1643
Birmingham, Edgbaston 1448
Bury South 1377
Ashfield 1330
Bristol South 1253
Don Valley 1078
Stalybridge and Hyde 1034
Wolverhampton North East 1029
Birmingham, Erdington 911
West Bromwich West 623
Walsall South 533
Hampstead and Kilburn 394
The Ukip-Con migration at the GE could be 50%; possibly, given these local election figures, a little more. That, however, would still be enough to do a lot of damage to Labour.
Applying the above Yougov model leaves the following 15 seats where a transfer of 37% of Ukip to Tories and 5% to Labour would result in the seat being lost.
Newcastle-under-Lyme 1670.64
Halifax 1370.72
City of Chester 1234.36
Barrow and Furness 827.4
Ilford North 804.6
Dewsbury 676.68
Walsall North 662.04
Wolverhampton South West 578.2
Brentford and Isleworth 559.96
North East Derbyshire 558.92
Wirral West 470.04
Ealing Central and Acton 342.32
Enfield North 236.56
Stoke-on-Trent South 116.36
Lancaster and Fleetwood 34.2
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He'd have been better off in somewhere like Stoke NorthTheScreamingEagles said:
First Sea Lord Sir Paul Nuttall is a pillock.IanB2 said:
Burnley. Not too far from Nuttall country. Meanwhile he's pratting about in Lincolnshire when even Hartlepool would have been a better choice.RobD said:And UKIP on one seat?.... titters
Only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would contest a Tory held seat when the Tories are polling in the high 40s/50%0 -
CON currently +12 in Cornwall. Still 50 seats to come0
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Simon won 284 in WolverhamptonRobinWiggs said:Street 7k ahead with just Bham and Wolverhampton to go.
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BBC World just had a labour guy on saying that no, it wasn't that good a night for them, but gives them a solid base for the general election.
- so it must have been a terrible night for the tories
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Not enough for a majority, largest party in the balance.RobD said:CON currently +12 in Cornwall. Still 50 seats to come
Elsewhere County Durham looks like an unconvincing majority for Labour.0 -
Yeah Street has surely got this. His 6k lead in the first round seems to have been enough.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Probably, but not overwhelmingly. But it looks to me that Street's lead is holding (strong and) stable at 6k with only Brum and Wolverhampton to reallocate. Birmingham is big of course, but this is looking over - not enough numbers there for Simon even if the remaining transfers are very good.IanB2 said:
Looking at that I am guessing that Simon is going to win more transfers from Birmingham?Rhubarb said:16:03
Round 2: Sion Simon ahead in Coventry
COVENTRY
Siôn Simon 3,236
Andy Street 2,213
Total rejected at the second stage 694
15:59
Round 2: Andy Street ahead in Solihull
SOLIHULL
Sion Simon 2,256
Andy Street 2,981
Total rejected at the second stage 741
15:58
Round 2: Andy Street ahead in Walsall
WALSALL
Siôn Simon 1,811
Andy Street 2,186
Total rejected at the second stage 602
15:56
Round 2: Sion Simon wins Sandwell
SANDWELL
Siôn Simon 2,476
Andy Street 2,260
Total rejected at the second stage 9110 -
It's difficult to see how Simon can win it now. His lead of 21,500 votes in B'ham in the first round was a terrible showing for Labour.RobinWiggs said:Street 7k ahead with just Bham and Wolverhampton to go.
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I can understand why you say that. It may be a case of SKY having taken the 11% Tory lead and compared that with their 2015 lead of 6.6%. That would actually only be a swing from Lab to Con of 2.2% and would only cost Labour circa 15 seats. It does assume a uniform swing though!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Surbiton, I must agree with you, l and the general consensus. A Conservative majority of 48 looks a shade low.
Mr. Brooke, reference to the English language comment, or has he uttered something else daft?0 -
They will be absolutely blown away. I know I keep saying it. But it's true!!TheScreamingEagles said:The fact that the West Midlands Mayoral is so close is an indication of Labour getting shellacked at the GE in the West Midlands.
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Wolverhampton second round: Sion Simon; 1996; Andy Street 1712
All on Birmingham0 -
Scottish Unionists are in the mood to give the separatists a kicking to remember.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Yeah, right. I don't believe the Tories will get 20 seats and I'm a big fan.MonikerDiCanio said:
They could get twenty seats in the GE, perhaps more.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/8605100310490972160 -
In fact I think the Tory candidate in Worsley, Cllr Iain Lindley is a PBer ?(or at least used to be)PaulM said:
Worsley, Heywood and Middleton, Rochdale, Bolton NE, Bury South, Oldham East and Saddleworth. Ordinarilly wouldn't really be marginals to be honest.SirNorfolkPassmore said:Which are the marginals in the Greater Manchester Combined Authority area? Could be worth a flutter on a few Labour holds.
Interesting that Burnham was runner-up to Corbyn in 2015, with about a third of his vote, yet got 63% here. I'm no statistician, but that does definitely mean Jez will win the General Election with a whopping 189% of the vote... the maths don't lie.
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With Brum and Wolves to reallocate the totals so far are:
Street: 229,226
Simon: 222,284
Diff: 6,942
Potential transfers to reallocate: 41,741.
UKIP: 10,448
Comm, 2,882
Green: 11,581
LDem: 16,830
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Although 48 may be a shade low, I think those expecting a majority of over 100 may be disappointed come June 9th. Yesterday's results have shown that the Labour vote will hold up better than expected in some places and I suspect many traditional Labour supporters, especially where they have a good local MP, may well vote red in the privacy of the polling booth - the habit of a lifetime is difficult to shake when you vote Labour because your Dad did and his Dad did too.0
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snip-1
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But for decades Lib Dems have performed much better in local elections than in general elections, particularly where they well organised on the ground. It needs something much more sophisticated than just totting up the local election votes in each seat.logical_song said:
We need a psephologist to crunch the numbers in their target seats.Doing that for all the parties should give us a good idea of likely gains and losses.Disraeli said:0 -
That's approx 40k and about half will be non transferable. Lab will need 2/3rds of those that do.Pulpstar said:Brum 2nd prefs to squeeze.
James BURN Green Party 9787
Pete DURNELL UK Independence Party (UKIP) 7537
Beverley Anne NIELSEN Liberal Democrats 14840
Graham John STEVENSON Communist 2312
Wolves
James BURN Green Party 1794
Pete DURNELL UK Independence Party (UKIP) 2911
Beverley Anne NIELSEN Liberal Democrats 1990
Graham John STEVENSON Communist 5700 -
That would definitely represent a Mcmandate in Tessyworld.surbiton said:
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/8605100310490972160 -
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Surely Simon nicks it at the end then? Those 2nd prefs will surely go mostly labour?RobinWiggs said:With Brum and Wolves to reallocate the totals so far are:
Street: 229,226
Simon: 222,284
Diff: 6,942
Potential transfers to reallocate: 41,741.
UKIP: 10,448
Comm, 2,882
Green: 11,581
LDem: 16,8300 -
LD projected share is 18% compared to about 10-12% in the polls.0
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Simon needs 2/3rds of the transfers in Bham now to win... unlikely.0
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Indeed UK-wide the Tory figure is approaching half a thousand.SeanT said:
Yes, and my figures are also for England only. The Tories have gained 306 in ENGLAND ONLYsurbiton said:
The 115 , I believe, was for England only.SeanT said:A reminder of the Rallings Thrasher predictions:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/25/labour-predicted-to-lose-hundreds-of-seats-in-local-elections
"They forecast nets gains of 115 seats for the Tories and 85 for the Lib Dems, and net losses of 75 for Labour and 105 for Ukip."
Good guess on UKIP, but whoah elsewhere
Tories have SO FAR gained 306, the LDs are DOWN by 22, and Labour have lost 141. So far.
So in terms of seats the Tories are doing almost three times better than expected, Labour almost twice as bad.0 -
Green Party have 10 seats on Solihull council, well ahead of the Lib Dems. This isn't new, unfortunately.0 -
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.surbiton said:
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?AndyJS said:Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
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whichever language he utters its all daftMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Surbiton, I must agree with you, l and the general consensus. A Conservative majority of 48 looks a shade low.
Mr. Brooke, reference to the English language comment, or has he uttered something else daft?
but I was referring to his views on english, since
a) it's petty sour grapes and
b) Europe speaks american and not english
When asked what was the greatest political fact of modern times, Bismarck is reported to have responded, that it was "the inherited and permanent fact that North America speaks English."
How a uniion of over 500 million people let itself be led by a pisshhead town councillor with a chip on his shoulder is beyond comprehension
they might as well have appointed Nicola Sturgeon0 -
19 seats is within the bounds of believable possibility.MonikerDiCanio said:
Scottish Unionists are in the mood to give the separatists a kicking to remember.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Yeah, right. I don't believe the Tories will get 20 seats and I'm a big fan.MonikerDiCanio said:
They could get twenty seats in the GE, perhaps more.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/8605100310490972160 -
In E&W this election now hangs entirely on the extent of anti-Tory tactical voting. On the upside, people are genuinely concerned about Brexit and apprehensive about a big Tory majority. On the downside, people simply don't hate the Tories as much as they did a few years ago, or will in a few years' time.TheKingofLangley said:Although 48 may be a shade low, I think those expecting a majority of over 100 may be disappointed come June 9th. Yesterday's results have shown that the Labour vote will hold up better than expected in some places and I suspect many traditional Labour supporters, especially where they have a good local MP, may well vote red in the privacy of the polling booth - the habit of a lifetime is difficult to shake when you vote Labour because your Dad did and his Dad did too.
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Based on the other 4 areas to give second preference figures, most voters won't have given a [valid] second preference.Bob__Sykes said:
Surely Simon nicks it at the end then? Those 2nd prefs will surely go mostly labour?RobinWiggs said:With Brum and Wolves to reallocate the totals so far are:
Street: 229,226
Simon: 222,284
Diff: 6,942
Potential transfers to reallocate: 41,741.
UKIP: 10,448
Comm, 2,882
Green: 11,581
LDem: 16,830
Second preferences seem to average about 50-50 in the other 4 areas with a similar ratio of party voters in each of them.0 -
In England it's Labour -140, UKIP -140. I wonder who can win!!0
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Corbyn is not my guy, you know that. Unfortunately, the Tories couldn't provide the killer blow. If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.SeanT said:
I reckon they'll get a few more than thatsurbiton said:
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860510031049097216
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE
It is Farron you should worry about now.0 -
They're both today's data only and take no account of polls or Copeland etcTudorRose said:
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.surbiton said:
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?AndyJS said:Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
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Have UKIP got any left to lose?TheWhiteRabbit said:In England it's Labour -140, UKIP -140. I wonder who can win!!
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While if Simon loses in West Midlands, what does that show ... ???surbiton said:
Corbyn is not my guy, you know that. Unfortunately, the Tories couldn't provide the killer blow. If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.SeanT said:
I reckon they'll get a few more than thatsurbiton said:
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860510031049097216
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE
It is Farron you should worry about now.0 -
Six I think.TudorRose said:
Have UKIP got any left to lose?TheWhiteRabbit said:In England it's Labour -140, UKIP -140. I wonder who can win!!
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Yes, slightly less than half of voters have been expressing a second preference and they've gone 51:49 to Street.Philip_Thompson said:
Based on the other 4 areas to give second preference figures, most voters won't have given a [valid] second preference.Bob__Sykes said:
Surely Simon nicks it at the end then? Those 2nd prefs will surely go mostly labour?RobinWiggs said:With Brum and Wolves to reallocate the totals so far are:
Street: 229,226
Simon: 222,284
Diff: 6,942
Potential transfers to reallocate: 41,741.
UKIP: 10,448
Comm, 2,882
Green: 11,581
LDem: 16,830
Second preferences seem to average about 50-50 in the other 4 areas with a similar ratio of party voters in each of them.
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Well I assume it's simply that some people will vote for a different party at the general election.surbiton said:
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?AndyJS said:Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
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Bob__Sykes said:
Surely Simon nicks it at the end then? Those 2nd prefs will surely go mostly labour?RobinWiggs said:With Brum and Wolves to reallocate the totals so far are:
Street: 229,226
Simon: 222,284
Diff: 6,942
Potential transfers to reallocate: 41,741.
UKIP: 10,448
Comm, 2,882
Green: 11,581
LDem: 16,830
Even before Wolverhampton had been called if UKIP all go to Street and Green all to Simon, for Lab to win you would need 12k of those 16k Lib Dem votes heading his way. So basically almost no chance. A lot of voters wont even give a second pref.
Burnham winning comfortably will be some solace for Lab. Greater Manchester will not be turning blue but the Midlands will.0 -
A CornettoTudorRose said:
Have UKIP got any left to lose?TheWhiteRabbit said:In England it's Labour -140, UKIP -140. I wonder who can win!!
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Didn't the Tories win Bristol?surbiton said:
If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.SeanT said:
I reckon they'll get a few more than thatsurbiton said:
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860510031049097216
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE0 -
That's my point; it's not clear how to reconcile them. Even allowing for people voting differently in local elections the imputed swing in the BBC figures is just 2.5% since 2015 compared to the 7% swing we saw in Copeland (and is indicated in some of the opinion polls).Philip_Thompson said:
They're both today's data only and take no account of polls or Copeland etcTudorRose said:
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.surbiton said:
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?AndyJS said:Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
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Labour and the LibDems were fairly close for second, and had the LDs come second it is quite likely they would have won it on transfers.Disraeli said:
Didn't the Tories win Bristol?surbiton said:
If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.SeanT said:
I reckon they'll get a few more than thatsurbiton said:
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860510031049097216
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE0 -
Does anyone know the vote share in Scotland?0
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Only about 2/3rds of the reallocations will be reallocated (as some won't use or will go for another eliminated party). That leaves 30k maximum. Simon would have to win with over 18k to under 12k. Going to be tight but I'd say Street will fancy that.Bob__Sykes said:
Surely Simon nicks it at the end then? Those 2nd prefs will surely go mostly labour?RobinWiggs said:With Brum and Wolves to reallocate the totals so far are:
Street: 229,226
Simon: 222,284
Diff: 6,942
Potential transfers to reallocate: 41,741.
UKIP: 10,448
Comm, 2,882
Green: 11,581
LDem: 16,8300 -
Just wondering if our own AndyJS is actually AndyJ(JohnLewis)S(Street)?
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I woudn't bet on that, it appears the metro UKIP vote is going Labour.Brom said:Bob__Sykes said:
Surely Simon nicks it at the end then? Those 2nd prefs will surely go mostly labour?RobinWiggs said:With Brum and Wolves to reallocate the totals so far are:
Street: 229,226
Simon: 222,284
Diff: 6,942
Potential transfers to reallocate: 41,741.
UKIP: 10,448
Comm, 2,882
Green: 11,581
LDem: 16,830
Even before Wolverhampton had been called if UKIP all go to Street and Green all to Simon
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The LDs saw a big uptick in actual votes recieved. My rough "back of the envelope" is that they've garnered about a 40% increase (albeit benefiting from standing in more seats). Ex-ing that out it's still probably a 35% jump.AndyJS said:LD projected share is 18% compared to about 10-12% in the polls.
But (a) it's been quite inefficiently spread, and (b) it's been overwhelmed by UKIP -> Con switching.
I suspect that will be the story on June 9th: LD will get perhaps 40% more votes than in 2015, but that the UKIP to Con switchers will result in them really struggling in some places. (North Norfolk, Carshalton, Southport.)
The one constituency where they'll be quite please is Cambridge where they're polling 6% higher than they were in 2015 on an equivalent basis, while Labour has slipped back.0 -
Yes - but they DIDN'T!IanB2 said:
Labour and the LibDems were fairly close for second, and had the LDs come second it is quite likely they would have won it on transfers.Disraeli said:
Didn't the Tories win Bristol?surbiton said:
If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.SeanT said:
I reckon they'll get a few more than thatsurbiton said:
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860510031049097216
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE
Which disproves Surbiton's statement.
LibDems doing OK though in my opinion. They stopped the bleeding and made a decent start on the recovery.0 -
LAB Hold Durham. Incase people were concerned they might not
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Mr. Thompson, it would show the power of the Curse of Morris Dancer.0
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I expect Sturgeon to bungle the response to her party's poor showing. Further alienating the public from her partitionist obsession.Alistair said:
19 seats is within the bounds of believable possibility.MonikerDiCanio said:
Scottish Unionists are in the mood to give the separatists a kicking to remember.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Yeah, right. I don't believe the Tories will get 20 seats and I'm a big fan.MonikerDiCanio said:
They could get twenty seats in the GE, perhaps more.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/8605100310490972160 -
I suspect the forecast to be a bit too clinical , but it is worth remembering that the change from May 2015 is a lot less dramatic than from May 2013 when these seats were last fought. The number of council seats changing hands would be far smaller were we able to use a May 2015 baseline. Beyond that the seats in Scotland and Wales were last fought in May 2012 - which was easily Labour's best year in the last Parliament.TudorRose said:
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.surbiton said:
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?AndyJS said:Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
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Cudawudashuda....IanB2 said:
Labour and the LibDems were fairly close for second, and had the LDs come second it is quite likely they would have won it on transfers.Disraeli said:
Didn't the Tories win Bristol?surbiton said:
If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.SeanT said:
I reckon they'll get a few more than thatsurbiton said:
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860510031049097216
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE0 -
Unionists in Scotland currently 250 + 198 + 67 = 515
Indys 350+ 12 = 362.
Smug.0 -
West of England , you mean ?Disraeli said:
Didn't the Tories win Bristol?surbiton said:
If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.SeanT said:
I reckon they'll get a few more than thatsurbiton said:
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860510031049097216
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE0 -
They won West of England, but the Bristol authority breakdown had them third (30k Lab, 20k LD, 18k Tory). So not really - they've won it on South Gloucestershire principally.Disraeli said:
Didn't the Tories win Bristol?surbiton said:
If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.SeanT said:
I reckon they'll get a few more than thatsurbiton said:
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860510031049097216
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE0 -
They can win a 140 seat majority without big cities. They just need the medium-sized cities and big towns, on top of their safe seats.surbiton said:
Corbyn is not my guy, you know that. Unfortunately, the Tories couldn't provide the killer blow. If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.SeanT said:
I reckon they'll get a few more than thatsurbiton said:
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860510031049097216
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE
It is Farron you should worry about now.
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Where are you getting those results, Cornwall council site has:RobD said:CON currently +12 in Cornwall. Still 50 seats to come
Cornwall Council elections - Thursday, 4th May, 2017
Status: Counting in progress
Cornwall Council elections - detailed results for Electoral Divisions
Cornwall Council elections - Electoral Divisions summary
Election results by party
Party name Seats won % of votes
Conservative 35 34%
Liberal Democrat 33 30%0 -
Just catching up on all this. Wow, just wow. Tories win Tees mayor, SNP are going backwards and Andy Street's looking good.
Oh, and we can hear the klaxon in Dubai!0 -
Boulton says WM may be down to a hundred votes or so!!0
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At last year's local elections the shares in the West Midlands were Lab 47%, Con 28%.
http://labourlist.org/2017/05/local-elections-liveblog/0 -
That's not what the transfer results are indicating. Unless the Greens and Commies are transferring to CON of course...brokenwheel said:
I woudn't bet on that, it appears the metro UKIP vote is going Labour.Brom said:Bob__Sykes said:
Surely Simon nicks it at the end then? Those 2nd prefs will surely go mostly labour?RobinWiggs said:With Brum and Wolves to reallocate the totals so far are:
Street: 229,226
Simon: 222,284
Diff: 6,942
Potential transfers to reallocate: 41,741.
UKIP: 10,448
Comm, 2,882
Green: 11,581
LDem: 16,830
Even before Wolverhampton had been called if UKIP all go to Street and Green all to Simon
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SeanF. I'm guessing when you say "they" in reference to the Tories, rather than "we", it indicates you are still with UKIP?Sean_F said:
They can win a 140 seat majority without big cities. They just need the medium-sized cities and big towns, on top of their safe seats.surbiton said:
Corbyn is not my guy, you know that. Unfortunately, the Tories couldn't provide the killer blow. If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.SeanT said:
I reckon they'll get a few more than thatsurbiton said:
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.SeanT said:Phenomenal performance by the SCONES
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860510031049097216
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE
It is Farron you should worry about now.0 -
West Midlands mayor result expected at 5.00 p.m.0
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https://democracy.cornwall.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=33&V=1&RPID=503932225logical_song said:
Where are you getting those results, Cornwall council site has:RobD said:CON currently +12 in Cornwall. Still 50 seats to come
Cornwall Council elections - Thursday, 4th May, 2017
Status: Counting in progress
Cornwall Council elections - detailed results for Electoral Divisions
Cornwall Council elections - Electoral Divisions summary
Election results by party
Party name Seats won % of votes
Conservative 35 34%
Liberal Democrat 33 30%
And for those that missed the earlier threads, here's the summary of the English council results: https://goo.gl/uzcozl
0 -
A recount then must be likely!Bob__Sykes said:Boulton says WM may be down to a hundred votes or so!!
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I just read from Sky that if these results are replicated at a GE the Tories will have a 44 seat majority. If that's all I reckon Corbyn's got off lightly.0
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On these numbers SNP + Green have no chance of a majority at 2021 Scottish Parliament Election.
Result: It's over - Independence now stone dead.0 -
Scottish Nazi Party -10%felix said:Does anyone know the vote share in Scotland?
Scottish Communists - 25%
Western Allies +100%0 -
Also if you think about the polls not that many people dislike the tories anymore. There could even be an anti labour tactical vote.IanB2 said:
In E&W this election now hangs entirely on the extent of anti-Tory tactical voting. On the upside, people are genuinely concerned about Brexit and apprehensive about a big Tory majority. On the downside, people simply don't hate the Tories as much as they did a few years ago, or will in a few years' time.TheKingofLangley said:Although 48 may be a shade low, I think those expecting a majority of over 100 may be disappointed come June 9th. Yesterday's results have shown that the Labour vote will hold up better than expected in some places and I suspect many traditional Labour supporters, especially where they have a good local MP, may well vote red in the privacy of the polling booth - the habit of a lifetime is difficult to shake when you vote Labour because your Dad did and his Dad did too.
You also have to remember that people yesterday were voting for local representation, and the key message the Tories will be pushing in the GE will be about support for the Gov position on negotiating Brexit. In a leave area you might want one type of representation, but in 5 weeks the choice is binary - Support for Gov mandate or not.0 -
Thank goodness your drear leader didn't frame the 'No to a second referendum' local elections purely on the basis of votes for the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party.DavidL said:Unionists in Scotland currently 250 + 198 + 67 = 515
Indys 350+ 12 = 362.
Smug.
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Does the very big vote share for Burnham affect the projected vote share? No one could seriously contemplate Labour getting 62% in Gtr Mcr at a General Election. Given it has the biggest population voting yesterday, does this seriously skew the figures?justin124 said:
I suspect the forecast to be a bit too clinical , but it is worth remembering that the change from May 2015 is a lot less dramatic than from May 2013 when these seats were last fought. The number of council seats changing hands would be far smaller were we able to use a May 2015 baseline. Beyond that the seats in Scotland and Wales were last fought in May 2012 - which was easily Labour's best year in the last Parliament.TudorRose said:
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.surbiton said:
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?AndyJS said:Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
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Since assuming office, the midas touch of Emperor Nuttall has lost his top donor, most of his councillors and his only MP. Heart of stone etc, etc...
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And if the stories about certain local officers giving conflicting info about second preferences are accurate and it is this close maybe the whole thing needs to be redone...justin124 said:
A recount then must be likely!Bob__Sykes said:Boulton says WM may be down to a hundred votes or so!!
0 -
ThanksRobD said:
https://democracy.cornwall.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=33&V=1&RPID=503932225logical_song said:
Where are you getting those results, Cornwall council site has:RobD said:CON currently +12 in Cornwall. Still 50 seats to come
Cornwall Council elections - Thursday, 4th May, 2017
Status: Counting in progress
Cornwall Council elections - detailed results for Electoral Divisions
Cornwall Council elections - Electoral Divisions summary
Election results by party
Party name Seats won % of votes
Conservative 35 34%
Liberal Democrat 33 30%
And for those that missed the earlier threads, here's the summary of the English council results: https://goo.gl/uzcozl0 -
It's also hard to reconcile the Tories getting three times what they were projected to by Railings and Thrasher ... with Railings and Thrasher thinking the Tories have significantly underperformed their polls and Copeland etcTudorRose said:
That's my point; it's not clear how to reconcile them. Even allowing for people voting differently in local elections the imputed swing in the BBC figures is just 2.5% since 2015 compared to the 7% swing we saw in Copeland (and is indicated in some of the opinion polls).Philip_Thompson said:
They're both today's data only and take no account of polls or Copeland etcTudorRose said:
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.surbiton said:
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?AndyJS said:Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
Just what sort of Parliament were Railings and Thrasher predicting if three-hundred-odd gains is such a relatively minor majority what would only a hundred-odd gains have meant?0 -
Lib Dem Voice says:
"The party is on course to make scores of gains at the general election ..."
That seems to imply at least 40 gains ... ?0 -
The pattern is for Tories to do better in GEs and Labour worse than the locals. as some have described it, today will be Labour's ceiling & the Tories floor.Roger said:I just read from Sky that if these results are replicated at a GE the Tories will have a 44 seat majority. If that's all I reckon Corbyn's got off lightly.
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Bugger- my free wifi runs out in 1 minute!Disraeli said:West Midlands mayor result expected at 5.00 p.m.
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West midland mayor looking like a dead heat, suggestions on Sky of only a hundred votes in it!!0
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Copeland was a Parliamentary election. These are local elections. The two are completely different. Look at this another way - for a governing party to make these gains, and the MOP to take these losses (when historically they are supposed to do very well), is, as far as I know, unprecedented. Compare the local results to the GE results from 1983.TudorRose said:
That's my point; it's not clear how to reconcile them. Even allowing for people voting differently in local elections the imputed swing in the BBC figures is just 2.5% since 2015 compared to the 7% swing we saw in Copeland (and is indicated in some of the opinion polls).Philip_Thompson said:
They're both today's data only and take no account of polls or Copeland etcTudorRose said:
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.surbiton said:
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?AndyJS said:Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
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I believe they are nicknamed Team Rogeramus....SeanT said:
It's from the same team that got these local election predictions completely wrong, and understated the Labour losses and Tory gains.Roger said:I just read from Sky that if these results are replicated at a GE the Tories will have a 44 seat majority. If that's all I reckon Corbyn's got off lightly.
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