politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and
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Election Data @election_data 2m2 minutes ago
Hermitage (Wrexham) convincing LAB HOLD
Plaid 207 31.7%
Labour 447 68.3%
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Musical seats in Monmouthshire.0
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Just rejoice at that news!Pulpstar said:Britain Elects @britainelects 49s50 seconds ago
Conservative GAIN Larkfield (Monmouthshire) from Liberal Democrat.
Monmouthshire merry-go-round
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I've sold Plaid generally.marke09 said:Election Data @election_data 2m2 minutes ago
Hermitage (Wrexham) convincing LAB HOLD
Plaid 207 31.7%
Labour 447 68.3%0 -
Could you share your spreadsheet link that you referred to earlier?RobD said:As always, PB is ahead of the BBC. We've got 10 seats in our database, but they've only got 8.
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could indies GAIn Wrexham?0
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Is this it? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=1661992236MikeSmithson said:
Could you share your spreadsheet link that you referred to earlier?RobD said:As always, PB is ahead of the BBC. We've got 10 seats in our database, but they've only got 8.
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Portillo is losing it on This Week. Unhinged attack on the FT for the reporting of the Brexit bill.0
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/121fe0qAkHI3WtE4sHUev_tclmRcIZiTHInTs8nSgDCM/edit#gid=1301808329MikeSmithson said:
Could you share your spreadsheet link that you referred to earlier?RobD said:As always, PB is ahead of the BBC. We've got 10 seats in our database, but they've only got 8.
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Fourth Lab loss in Wrexham (this time to Con(0
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Labour lose Garden Village (Wrexham) and Bryn Cefn and I can't see either on the spreadsheet. (from Britain Elects) ie lead > 25%0
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First 2 Glos CC results from Cirencester LD holds with big increase in majority over Con0
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Election Data @election_data 1m1 minute ago
Garden Village (Wrexham). Independent GAIN from Labour but Indy candidate was Labour in 2012:
Lab - 51
Ind - 943
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He's spot on.williamglenn said:Portillo is losing it on This Week. Unhinged attack on the FT for the reporting of the Brexit bill.
The FT is a Remainer rag.0 -
Would it be embarrassing to admit I thought Wrexham was in England?0
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You never know.....foxinsoxuk said:
Also the leaders debate on ITV, minus two shy people, but more importantly Leicester playing Spurs at home.tyson said:QT is in Norwich on 18th May.....I've already booked tickets for Brad Mehdlau.....Better things to do....
"Champions of England - you'll never sing that" ;-)0 -
Here you go - https://goo.gl/uzcozlMikeSmithson said:
Could you share your spreadsheet link that you referred to earlier?RobD said:As always, PB is ahead of the BBC. We've got 10 seats in our database, but they've only got 8.
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I'll be kind -reallykle4 said:Would it be embarrassing to admit I thought Wrexham was in England?
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Britain Elects @britainelects · 1m1 minute ago
Differential turnout reported in West Midlands (mayoral area): high in Tory areas, low in Labour.
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QT tonight....how depressing.
Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....0 -
That had a 43% Labour majority in 2012.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 35s36 seconds ago
Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.
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Prof Roger Scully @roger_scully
First direct Conservative gain from Labour in Wrexham, where Labour seem to be having a difficult night.
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LDs hold Aberaeron in Ceredigion https://twitter.com/HarryHayfield/status/8602693413208514560
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One of the most one sided results I've ever seen.marke09 said:Election Data @election_data 1m1 minute ago
Garden Village (Wrexham). Independent GAIN from Labour but Indy candidate was Labour in 2012:
Lab - 51
Ind - 9430 -
Portillo always seems, remarkably given his status, close to the man on the street's view on most issues.chestnut said:
He's spot on.williamglenn said:Portillo is losing it on This Week. Unhinged attack on the FT for the reporting of the Brexit bill.
The FT is a Remainer rag.0 -
If the Bedworth results are typical Labour are losing a lot more than 75 in England.david_herdson said:
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Looks like that is going conservative at GEmarke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 35s36 seconds ago
Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.0 -
Christ alive. That is a hell of a Lab collapse.marke09 said:Election Data @election_data 1m1 minute ago
Garden Village (Wrexham). Independent GAIN from Labour but Indy candidate was Labour in 2012:
Lab - 51
Ind - 9430 -
So much for Faisal's 'Labour sources'....RobinWiggs said:Britain Elects @britainelects · 1m1 minute ago
Differential turnout reported in West Midlands (mayoral area): high in Tory areas, low in Labour.0 -
Bloody hell.another_richard said:
That had a 43% Labour majority in 2012.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 35s36 seconds ago
Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.0 -
Cirencester Park
LD 2193
Con 957
Lab 176
UKIP 94
Green 87
Cirencester Beeches
LD 1971
Con 1179
Green 138
UKIP 1320 -
Sorry big g.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I'll be kind -reallykle4 said:Would it be embarrassing to admit I thought Wrexham was in England?
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lection Data @election_data 42s42 seconds ago
Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) Con GAIN from Labour.
Lab down from 68% in 2012 to 24%
Con up from 20% in 2012 to 40.6%
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Which GE constituency are those inMarkSenior said:Cirencester Park
LD 2193
Con 957
Lab 176
UKIP 94
Green 87
Cirencester Beeches
LD 1971
Con 1179
Green 138
UKIP 1320 -
Tories 1/4 BFBig_G_NorthWales said:
Looks like that is going conservative at GEmarke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 35s36 seconds ago
Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.0 -
Ouchmarke09 said:lection Data @election_data 42s42 seconds ago
Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) Con GAIN from Labour.
Lab down from 68% in 2012 to 24%
Con up from 20% in 2012 to 40.6%0 -
CotswoldPulpstar said:
Which GE constituency are those inMarkSenior said:Cirencester Park
LD 2193
Con 957
Lab 176
UKIP 94
Green 87
Cirencester Beeches
LD 1971
Con 1179
Green 138
UKIP 1320 -
Probably CotswoldPulpstar said:
Which GE constituency are those inMarkSenior said:Cirencester Park
LD 2193
Con 957
Lab 176
UKIP 94
Green 87
Cirencester Beeches
LD 1971
Con 1179
Green 138
UKIP 1320 -
yeah. I never take him seriously. His sources always turn out to be duds.TudorRose said:
So much for Faisal's 'Labour sources'....RobinWiggs said:Britain Elects @britainelects · 1m1 minute ago
Differential turnout reported in West Midlands (mayoral area): high in Tory areas, low in Labour.0 -
Laura K much better then him.0
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Wasn't it him that caused a flurry of bets on goldsmith when he tweeted a picture of some ballot stacks in Richmond?TudorRose said:
So much for Faisal's 'Labour sources'....RobinWiggs said:Britain Elects @britainelects · 1m1 minute ago
Differential turnout reported in West Midlands (mayoral area): high in Tory areas, low in Labour.0 -
Absolutely no problem - border towns are easy to confuse, Berwick, Hereford , and Wrexham to name threekle4 said:
Sorry big g.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I'll be kind -reallykle4 said:Would it be embarrassing to admit I thought Wrexham was in England?
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Yep - looks very ossible all 4 NE Wales seats will go red>blue.IanB2 said:
Tories 1/4 BFBig_G_NorthWales said:
Looks like that is going conservative at GEmarke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 35s36 seconds ago
Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.
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Taps mic....sniff sniff....21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation.marke09 said:lection Data @election_data 42s42 seconds ago
Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) Con GAIN from Labour.
Lab down from 68% in 2012 to 24%
Con up from 20% in 2012 to 40.6%0 -
Conservative gain from Independent in Egerton Ward on Melton BC https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/8602705910641131520
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Yup!kle4 said:
Wasn't it him that caused a flurry of bets on goldsmith when he tweeted a picture of some ballot stacks in Richmond?TudorRose said:
So much for Faisal's 'Labour sources'....RobinWiggs said:Britain Elects @britainelects · 1m1 minute ago
Differential turnout reported in West Midlands (mayoral area): high in Tory areas, low in Labour.0 -
Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?tyson said:QT tonight....how depressing.
Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....0 -
The CotswoldsPulpstar said:
Which GE constituency are those inMarkSenior said:Cirencester Park
LD 2193
Con 957
Lab 176
UKIP 94
Green 87
Cirencester Beeches
LD 1971
Con 1179
Green 138
UKIP 1320 -
Plaid hold Gwersyllt West in Wrexham https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8602709292885401600
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Either that or someone's hacked into his account.BenedictWhite said:
Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?tyson said:QT tonight....how depressing.
Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....0 -
Note my change figures may be a bit different from the BBC since I am not sure of the notional results of some councils. When the final numbers come in I'll make sure my change figures match for each council.0
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One PC hold in Wrexham
Reports from Hertfordshire of dramatic collapse in ukip votes.0 -
Be fair, have you looked at Labour recently?BenedictWhite said:
Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?tyson said:QT tonight....how depressing.
Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....0 -
(((Harry Hayfield))) @HarryHayfield
#Ind GAIN #Llandysul Town on #Ceredigion reversing 2012 #Plaid gain #Ind 407 (63%) #Plaid 236 (37%)0 -
30% in the polls, it's going great, just ask Corbyn.Floater said:
Be fair, have you looked at Labour recently?BenedictWhite said:
Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?tyson said:QT tonight....how depressing.
Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....0 -
I'm pretty fed up with politics, but still like to venture on this site from time to time.BenedictWhite said:
Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?tyson said:QT tonight....how depressing.
Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....
Benedict...we go back a long time my old mucker......
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Never mind - tonight is a good rehearsal for 8th June0
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Noted. Still, perhaps we should send flowers in sympathy or something...Floater said:
Be fair, have you looked at Labour recently?BenedictWhite said:
Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?tyson said:QT tonight....how depressing.
Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....
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Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)0
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Britain Elects @britainelects 1m1 minute ago
Conservatives WIN Bedworth West and Bedworth East (Warwickshire), both notional gains from Labour.
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33/1 for LDs with PP, but Tory majority of 30%+MarkSenior said:
The CotswoldsPulpstar said:
Which GE constituency are those inMarkSenior said:Cirencester Park
LD 2193
Con 957
Lab 176
UKIP 94
Green 87
Cirencester Beeches
LD 1971
Con 1179
Green 138
UKIP 1320 -
Well, yes, but we agree David Davies is good, which is fine with me, as a Tory Brexiteer who voted for him, but you? Wow...tyson said:
I'm pretty fed up with politics, but still like to venture on this site from time to time.BenedictWhite said:
Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?tyson said:QT tonight....how depressing.
Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....
Benedict...we go back a long time my old mucker......0 -
Can you explain why they are notional please - not sure I understand why it is notionalIanB2 said:Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)
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It'll stay blue I think.foxinsoxuk said:
33/1 for LDs with PP, but Tory majority of 30%+MarkSenior said:
The CotswoldsPulpstar said:
Which GE constituency are those inMarkSenior said:Cirencester Park
LD 2193
Con 957
Lab 176
UKIP 94
Green 87
Cirencester Beeches
LD 1971
Con 1179
Green 138
UKIP 1320 -
tyson old bean, I bought some high gloss black chelsea boots the other day. Thought you might appreciate this given what you think of my politics!!tyson said:
I'm pretty fed up with politics, but still like to venture on this site from time to time.BenedictWhite said:
Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?tyson said:QT tonight....how depressing.
Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....
Benedict...we go back a long time my old mucker......0 -
Davis only looks good standing next to Fox and JohnsonBenedictWhite said:
Well, yes, but we agree David Davies is good, which is fine with me, as a Tory Brexiteer who voted for him, but you? Wow...tyson said:
I'm pretty fed up with politics, but still like to venture on this site from time to time.BenedictWhite said:
Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?tyson said:QT tonight....how depressing.
Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....
Benedict...we go back a long time my old mucker......0 -
Boundary changes, so the wards cover different areas. The boffins work out what the previous election would have been had it been held on the new boundaries.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you explain why they are notional please - not sure I understand why it is notionalIanB2 said:Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)
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This is quite a good site for a LA;AndyJS said:
Do you have a link?IanB2 said:Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)
https://apps.warwickshire.gov.uk/ElectionResults/elections/2017
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That makes sense and thank you for explaining it to meRobD said:
Boundary changes, so the wards cover different areas. The boffins work out what the previous election would have been had it been held on the new boundaries.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you explain why they are notional please - not sure I understand why it is notionalIanB2 said:Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)
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DD is quixiotic, and a loose cannon. He is a bit loved up with Shami, which I can quite understand, but apart from his views on civil rights he is completely hatstand.BenedictWhite said:
Well, yes, but we agree David Davies is good, which is fine with me, as a Tory Brexiteer who voted for him, but you? Wow...tyson said:
I'm pretty fed up with politics, but still like to venture on this site from time to time.BenedictWhite said:
Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?tyson said:QT tonight....how depressing.
Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....
Benedict...we go back a long time my old mucker......0 -
http://warwickshire.gov.uk/electionsAndyJS said:
Do you have a link?IanB2 said:Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)
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Weymouth Town
Green GAIN from LAB (I think
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Please can someone link to spreadsheet being discussed which is updating results?0
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Being updated as the results come in:AndyJS said:
Do you have a link?IanB2 said:Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)
https://apps.warwickshire.gov.uk/ElectionResults/elections/2017
That looks like at least six Conservative gains in Warwickshire already.
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https://goo.gl/uzcozlMikeL said:Please can someone link to spreadsheet being discussed which is updating results?
and for Lab defences:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=00 -
LBC just namechecked the spreadsheet!0
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ThreeQuidder said:
LBC just namechecked the spreadsheet!
Serves me right for having it muted while they were playing ads 0 -
PB gets a shoutout on LBC! We are being watched...0
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Wrexham LAB vote down around 7-10% across the seats declared so far (avg by eye).0
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I have no sympathy.BenedictWhite said:
Noted. Still, perhaps we should send flowers in sympathy or something...Floater said:
Be fair, have you looked at Labour recently?BenedictWhite said:
Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?tyson said:QT tonight....how depressing.
Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....
Every loss makes my smile a little wider.0 -
Lbc signposting to PB tally sheet...0
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That's because it's very good; great job, Rob!ThreeQuidder said:LBC just namechecked the spreadsheet!
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Sarah Easedale @SarahEasedale
Lab take a seat from the Independents in Hope, Flintshire. So close! Gladys Healey - 322 votes and Huw Manning 3210 -
The spreadsheet is behind the twitter feeds0
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Give the lad a chance...IanB2 said:The spreadsheet is behind the twitter feeds
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First CON hold in Flintshire - Cilcain with 67% of the vote.0
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I like it as it is a bit more elegant and not over cluttered. You want the full data later, but simple and clean results, even if it needs tweaking as you go along? Invaluable.TudorRose said:
That's because it's very good; great job, Rob!ThreeQuidder said:LBC just namechecked the spreadsheet!
And a good night to political anoraks everywhere. These are our times.0 -
I think it is a bit more than that, Mr. Wiggs. Looks like about a 30% swing from Labour to Conservative. Got to be some local factors in play, surely.RobinWiggs said:Wrexham LAB vote down around 7-10% across the seats declared so far (avg by eye).
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Two of the three Labour losses in Wrexham don't appear as defences in your spreadsheet, so presumably that indicates previous majorities of more than 25%?AndyJS said:Labour's first loss, in Wrexham, has coloured up on their defence list in Wales:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=16619922360
