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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and

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  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Election Data‏ @election_data 2m2 minutes ago

    Hermitage (Wrexham) convincing LAB HOLD
    Plaid 207 31.7%
    Labour 447 68.3%
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Musical seats in Monmouthshire.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Pulpstar said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 49s50 seconds ago

    Conservative GAIN Larkfield (Monmouthshire) from Liberal Democrat.


    Monmouthshire merry-go-round

    Just rejoice at that news! :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    marke09 said:

    Election Data‏ @election_data 2m2 minutes ago

    Hermitage (Wrexham) convincing LAB HOLD
    Plaid 207 31.7%
    Labour 447 68.3%

    I've sold Plaid generally.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    RobD said:

    As always, PB is ahead of the BBC. We've got 10 seats in our database, but they've only got 8. :D

    Could you share your spreadsheet link that you referred to earlier?

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    could indies GAIn Wrexham?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 1m1 minute ago

    Independent GAIN Garden Village (Wrexham) from Labour.
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198

    RobD said:

    As always, PB is ahead of the BBC. We've got 10 seats in our database, but they've only got 8. :D

    Could you share your spreadsheet link that you referred to earlier?

    Is this it? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=1661992236
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,881
    Portillo is losing it on This Week. Unhinged attack on the FT for the reporting of the Brexit bill.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    RobD said:

    As always, PB is ahead of the BBC. We've got 10 seats in our database, but they've only got 8. :D

    Could you share your spreadsheet link that you referred to earlier?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/121fe0qAkHI3WtE4sHUev_tclmRcIZiTHInTs8nSgDCM/edit#gid=1301808329
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990
    nunu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Newsnight projecting 300-400 Labour losses (say LBC) total UK

    !No way! that really would be a meltdown.
    Not really: I predicted that weeks ago. 150 in each of Wales and Scotland, and 75 in England ought to always have been the expectation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Fourth Lab loss in Wrexham (this time to Con(
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 35s36 seconds ago

    Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    edited May 2017
    Labour lose Garden Village (Wrexham) and Bryn Cefn and I can't see either on the spreadsheet. (from Britain Elects) ie lead > 25%
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    First 2 Glos CC results from Cirencester LD holds with big increase in majority over Con
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Election Data‏ @election_data 1m1 minute ago

    Garden Village (Wrexham). Independent GAIN from Labour but Indy candidate was Labour in 2012:
    Lab - 51
    Ind - 943
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Portillo is losing it on This Week. Unhinged attack on the FT for the reporting of the Brexit bill.

    He's spot on.

    The FT is a Remainer rag.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Would it be embarrassing to admit I thought Wrexham was in England?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    tyson said:

    QT is in Norwich on 18th May.....I've already booked tickets for Brad Mehdlau.....Better things to do....

    Also the leaders debate on ITV, minus two shy people, but more importantly Leicester playing Spurs at home.

    "Champions of England - you'll never sing that" ;-)
    You never know.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145

    RobD said:

    As always, PB is ahead of the BBC. We've got 10 seats in our database, but they've only got 8. :D

    Could you share your spreadsheet link that you referred to earlier?

    Here you go - https://goo.gl/uzcozl
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    Would it be embarrassing to admit I thought Wrexham was in England?

    I'll be kind -really
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects · 1m1 minute ago

    Differential turnout reported in West Midlands (mayoral area): high in Tory areas, low in Labour.

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    QT tonight....how depressing.

    Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 35s36 seconds ago

    Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.

    That had a 43% Labour majority in 2012.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Prof Roger Scully‏ @roger_scully

    First direct Conservative gain from Labour in Wrexham, where Labour seem to be having a difficult night.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    edited May 2017
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    marke09 said:

    Election Data‏ @election_data 1m1 minute ago

    Garden Village (Wrexham). Independent GAIN from Labour but Indy candidate was Labour in 2012:
    Lab - 51
    Ind - 943

    One of the most one sided results I've ever seen.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    chestnut said:

    Portillo is losing it on This Week. Unhinged attack on the FT for the reporting of the Brexit bill.

    He's spot on.

    The FT is a Remainer rag.
    Portillo always seems, remarkably given his status, close to the man on the street's view on most issues.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925

    nunu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Newsnight projecting 300-400 Labour losses (say LBC) total UK

    !No way! that really would be a meltdown.
    Not really: I predicted that weeks ago. 150 in each of Wales and Scotland, and 75 in England ought to always have been the expectation.
    If the Bedworth results are typical Labour are losing a lot more than 75 in England.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 35s36 seconds ago

    Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.

    Looks like that is going conservative at GE
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    kle4 said:

    Would it be embarrassing to admit I thought Wrexham was in England?

    Brave.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    marke09 said:

    Election Data‏ @election_data 1m1 minute ago

    Garden Village (Wrexham). Independent GAIN from Labour but Indy candidate was Labour in 2012:
    Lab - 51
    Ind - 943

    Christ alive. That is a hell of a Lab collapse.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects · 1m1 minute ago

    Differential turnout reported in West Midlands (mayoral area): high in Tory areas, low in Labour.

    So much for Faisal's 'Labour sources'....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651

    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 35s36 seconds ago

    Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.

    That had a 43% Labour majority in 2012.
    Bloody hell.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Cirencester Park

    LD 2193
    Con 957
    Lab 176
    UKIP 94
    Green 87

    Cirencester Beeches

    LD 1971
    Con 1179
    Green 138
    UKIP 132
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    kle4 said:

    Would it be embarrassing to admit I thought Wrexham was in England?

    I'll be kind -really
    Sorry big g.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    lection Data‏ @election_data 42s42 seconds ago

    Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) Con GAIN from Labour.
    Lab down from 68% in 2012 to 24%
    Con up from 20% in 2012 to 40.6%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651

    Cirencester Park

    LD 2193
    Con 957
    Lab 176
    UKIP 94
    Green 87

    Cirencester Beeches

    LD 1971
    Con 1179
    Green 138
    UKIP 132

    Which GE constituency are those in
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289

    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 35s36 seconds ago

    Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.

    Looks like that is going conservative at GE
    Tories 1/4 BF
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    OUT said:

    kle4 said:

    Would it be embarrassing to admit I thought Wrexham was in England?

    Brave.
    If one does not admit ignorance, how will one learn?

    Not that I will, I'm sure.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    marke09 said:

    lection Data‏ @election_data 42s42 seconds ago

    Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) Con GAIN from Labour.
    Lab down from 68% in 2012 to 24%
    Con up from 20% in 2012 to 40.6%

    Ouch
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Pulpstar said:

    Cirencester Park

    LD 2193
    Con 957
    Lab 176
    UKIP 94
    Green 87

    Cirencester Beeches

    LD 1971
    Con 1179
    Green 138
    UKIP 132

    Which GE constituency are those in
    Cotswold
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Pulpstar said:

    Cirencester Park

    LD 2193
    Con 957
    Lab 176
    UKIP 94
    Green 87

    Cirencester Beeches

    LD 1971
    Con 1179
    Green 138
    UKIP 132

    Which GE constituency are those in
    Probably Cotswold
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    TudorRose said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects · 1m1 minute ago

    Differential turnout reported in West Midlands (mayoral area): high in Tory areas, low in Labour.

    So much for Faisal's 'Labour sources'....
    yeah. I never take him seriously. His sources always turn out to be duds.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Laura K much better then him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    TudorRose said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects · 1m1 minute ago

    Differential turnout reported in West Midlands (mayoral area): high in Tory areas, low in Labour.

    So much for Faisal's 'Labour sources'....
    Wasn't it him that caused a flurry of bets on goldsmith when he tweeted a picture of some ballot stacks in Richmond?
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    IanB2 said:

    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 35s36 seconds ago

    Conservative GAIN Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) from Labour.

    Looks like that is going conservative at GE
    Tories 1/4 BF
    Yep - looks very ossible all 4 NE Wales seats will go red>blue.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Would it be embarrassing to admit I thought Wrexham was in England?

    I'll be kind -really
    Sorry big g.
    Absolutely no problem - border towns are easy to confuse, Berwick, Hereford , and Wrexham to name three
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    marke09 said:

    lection Data‏ @election_data 42s42 seconds ago

    Bryn Cefn (Wrexham) Con GAIN from Labour.
    Lab down from 68% in 2012 to 24%
    Con up from 20% in 2012 to 40.6%

    Taps mic....sniff sniff....21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    edited May 2017
    Conservative gain from Independent in Egerton Ward on Melton BC https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/860270591064113152
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    kle4 said:

    TudorRose said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects · 1m1 minute ago

    Differential turnout reported in West Midlands (mayoral area): high in Tory areas, low in Labour.

    So much for Faisal's 'Labour sources'....
    Wasn't it him that caused a flurry of bets on goldsmith when he tweeted a picture of some ballot stacks in Richmond?
    Yup!
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    tyson said:

    QT tonight....how depressing.

    Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....

    Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pulpstar said:

    Cirencester Park

    LD 2193
    Con 957
    Lab 176
    UKIP 94
    Green 87

    Cirencester Beeches

    LD 1971
    Con 1179
    Green 138
    UKIP 132

    Which GE constituency are those in
    The Cotswolds
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    edited May 2017
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    tyson said:

    QT tonight....how depressing.

    Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....

    Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?
    Either that or someone's hacked into his account.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Note my change figures may be a bit different from the BBC since I am not sure of the notional results of some councils. When the final numbers come in I'll make sure my change figures match for each council.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    One PC hold in Wrexham

    Reports from Hertfordshire of dramatic collapse in ukip votes.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    tyson said:

    QT tonight....how depressing.

    Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....

    Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?
    Be fair, have you looked at Labour recently?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    (((Harry Hayfield)))‏ @HarryHayfield

    #Ind GAIN #Llandysul Town on #Ceredigion reversing 2012 #Plaid gain #Ind 407 (63%) #Plaid 236 (37%)
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120

    tyson said:

    QT tonight....how depressing.

    Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....

    Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?
    I'm pretty fed up with politics, but still like to venture on this site from time to time.

    Benedict...we go back a long time my old mucker......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Floater said:

    tyson said:

    QT tonight....how depressing.

    Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....

    Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?
    Be fair, have you looked at Labour recently?
    30% in the polls, it's going great, just ask Corbyn.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    Never mind - tonight is a good rehearsal for 8th June
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Floater said:

    tyson said:

    QT tonight....how depressing.

    Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....

    Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?
    Be fair, have you looked at Labour recently?
    Noted. Still, perhaps we should send flowers in sympathy or something... ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    edited May 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)

    Which are those? Thanks :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)

    Which are those? Thanks :)
    Bedworth E and W. to add to Bedworth N
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 1m1 minute ago

    Conservatives WIN Bedworth West and Bedworth East (Warwickshire), both notional gains from Labour.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Pulpstar said:

    Cirencester Park

    LD 2193
    Con 957
    Lab 176
    UKIP 94
    Green 87

    Cirencester Beeches

    LD 1971
    Con 1179
    Green 138
    UKIP 132

    Which GE constituency are those in
    The Cotswolds
    33/1 for LDs with PP, but Tory majority of 30%+
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    QT tonight....how depressing.

    Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....

    Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?
    I'm pretty fed up with politics, but still like to venture on this site from time to time.

    Benedict...we go back a long time my old mucker......
    Well, yes, but we agree David Davies is good, which is fine with me, as a Tory Brexiteer who voted for him, but you? Wow...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    IanB2 said:

    Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)

    Can you explain why they are notional please - not sure I understand why it is notional
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IanB2 said:

    Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)

    Do you have a link?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651

    Pulpstar said:

    Cirencester Park

    LD 2193
    Con 957
    Lab 176
    UKIP 94
    Green 87

    Cirencester Beeches

    LD 1971
    Con 1179
    Green 138
    UKIP 132

    Which GE constituency are those in
    The Cotswolds
    33/1 for LDs with PP, but Tory majority of 30%+
    It'll stay blue I think.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    QT tonight....how depressing.

    Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....

    Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?
    I'm pretty fed up with politics, but still like to venture on this site from time to time.

    Benedict...we go back a long time my old mucker......
    tyson old bean, I bought some high gloss black chelsea boots the other day. Thought you might appreciate this given what you think of my politics!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    QT tonight....how depressing.

    Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....

    Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?
    I'm pretty fed up with politics, but still like to venture on this site from time to time.

    Benedict...we go back a long time my old mucker......
    Well, yes, but we agree David Davies is good, which is fine with me, as a Tory Brexiteer who voted for him, but you? Wow...
    Davis only looks good standing next to Fox and Johnson
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145

    IanB2 said:

    Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)

    Can you explain why they are notional please - not sure I understand why it is notional
    Boundary changes, so the wards cover different areas. The boffins work out what the previous election would have been had it been held on the new boundaries.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)

    Do you have a link?
    This is quite a good site for a LA;
    https://apps.warwickshire.gov.uk/ElectionResults/elections/2017
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)

    Can you explain why they are notional please - not sure I understand why it is notional
    Boundary changes, so the wards cover different areas. The boffins work out what the previous election would have been had it been held on the new boundaries.
    That makes sense and thank you for explaining it to me
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2017

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    QT tonight....how depressing.

    Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....

    Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?
    I'm pretty fed up with politics, but still like to venture on this site from time to time.

    Benedict...we go back a long time my old mucker......
    Well, yes, but we agree David Davies is good, which is fine with me, as a Tory Brexiteer who voted for him, but you? Wow...
    DD is quixiotic, and a loose cannon. He is a bit loved up with Shami, which I can quite understand, but apart from his views on civil rights he is completely hatstand.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)

    Do you have a link?
    http://warwickshire.gov.uk/elections
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Weymouth Town
    Green GAIN from LAB (I think :p )
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    RobD said:

    Weymouth Town
    Green GAIN from LAB (I think :p )

    Funny place, Weymouth
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Please can someone link to spreadsheet being discussed which is updating results?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    edited May 2017
    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Two more Con gain from Lab in Warwicks (notional)

    Do you have a link?
    Being updated as the results come in:

    https://apps.warwickshire.gov.uk/ElectionResults/elections/2017

    That looks like at least six Conservative gains in Warwickshire already.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    MikeL said:

    Please can someone link to spreadsheet being discussed which is updating results?

    https://goo.gl/uzcozl

    and for Lab defences:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=0
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    LBC just namechecked the spreadsheet!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    edited May 2017

    LBC just namechecked the spreadsheet!

    :o Serves me right for having it muted while they were playing ads
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    PB gets a shoutout on LBC! We are being watched...
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Wrexham LAB vote down around 7-10% across the seats declared so far (avg by eye).
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    tyson said:

    QT tonight....how depressing.

    Genuinely, I think those of us of a reasonable disposition, should coalesce around David David (much like we did with Churchill) in the national interest and hope for the best....

    Bloody hell Tyson. Are you ill?
    Be fair, have you looked at Labour recently?
    Noted. Still, perhaps we should send flowers in sympathy or something... ;)
    I have no sympathy.

    Every loss makes my smile a little wider.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Lbc signposting to PB tally sheet...
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    LBC just namechecked the spreadsheet!

    That's because it's very good; great job, Rob!
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Sarah Easedale @SarahEasedale

    Lab take a seat from the Independents in Hope, Flintshire. So close! Gladys Healey - 322 votes and Huw Manning 321
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    The spreadsheet is behind the twitter feeds
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Weymouth Town
    Green GAIN from LAB (I think :p )

    Funny place, Weymouth
    Labour not laughing - oh well, never mind.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    IanB2 said:

    The spreadsheet is behind the twitter feeds

    Give the lad a chance...
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    First CON hold in Flintshire - Cilcain with 67% of the vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    TudorRose said:

    LBC just namechecked the spreadsheet!

    That's because it's very good; great job, Rob!
    I like it as it is a bit more elegant and not over cluttered. You want the full data later, but simple and clean results, even if it needs tweaking as you go along? Invaluable.

    And a good night to political anoraks everywhere. These are our times.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    edited May 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Labour's first loss, in Wrexham, has coloured up on their defence list in Wales:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=1661992236

    Two of the three Labour losses in Wrexham don't appear as defences in your spreadsheet, so presumably that indicates previous majorities of more than 25%?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Wrexham LAB vote down around 7-10% across the seats declared so far (avg by eye).

    I think it is a bit more than that, Mr. Wiggs. Looks like about a 30% swing from Labour to Conservative. Got to be some local factors in play, surely.
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