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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and

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  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sheffield Southey Lab hold

    Lab 1594
    LDem 706
    UKIP 593
    Con 388
    Green 97
    Yorksire 46
    WEQ 49

    UKIP not dead in the north?
    Labour 1926
    UKIP 1173
    Lib Dems 204
    Green 192
    Tories 191
    TUSC 61

    Last time (Highest vote, triple member ward)
    Then that looks like a net UKIP to LD swing, interesting. (Probably Con voters going LD and UKIP to Con).
    Perhaps Lab to LD.

    Lets see a few more before we read tbe tea leaves.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    chestnut said:

    SHOUTY women for Labour on QT - Wigan audience roundly boo Sturgeon.

    Damn, was hoping for a gain in Wigan.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sheffield Southey Lab hold

    Lab 1594
    LDem 706
    UKIP 593
    Con 388
    Green 97
    Yorksire 46
    WEQ 49

    UKIP not dead in the north?
    Labour 1926
    UKIP 1173
    Lib Dems 204
    Green 192
    Tories 191
    TUSC 61

    Last time (Highest vote, triple member ward)
    Then that looks like a net UKIP to LD swing, interesting. (Probably Con voters going LD and UKIP to Con).
    Perhaps Lab to LD.

    Lets see a few more before we read tbe tea leaves.
    Wild speculation is not as fun when in possession of multiple data points and facts though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,146
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/theresa-may-breaks-away-cameron-cronyism-mps-standing-told-will/

    She's saving the political capital to give our very own JohnO the first hereditary dukedom in decades. :p
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    Labour's first loss, in Wrexham, has coloured up on their defence list in Wales:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=1661992236
  • augustus_carpaugustus_carp Posts: 224
    RobD said:

    Is there any good radio coverage of the events tonight? I was hoping for something on TV, but it's just bloody Question Time again.

    Check out LBC. It's pretty good.
    Thanks, will do.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289

    Another old chestnut gets resurrected. Politicians love FPTP when they are winning. When they are getting hammered then suddenly it is time for PR

    Maybe TSE could do us an AV thread? :D

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/proportional-representation-electoral-reform-pr-labour-manifesto-jeremy-corbyn-a7715786.html

    Except both Thornberry and whoever is now the !abour spokesman on LBC are arguing strongly for the current system. If they are about to change their people aren't on message (as usual).
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Independent GAIN Rhosnesni (Wrexham) from Labour.

    Did the railway from Bidston to Wrecsam Canalog a couple of weeks ago.
    I did it in 1990! Preston to Porthmadog on a Sunday! Preston-Bolton-Southport-Liverpool-Bidston-Wrecsam-Shrewsbury-Porthmadog!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549

    Thornberry boasting about Labour's ground game...

    She's IOS and I claim my £80,000,000 from Labour.

    But how many policemen will that buy?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2017
    .
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    OUT said:

    chestnut said:

    SHOUTY women for Labour on QT - Wigan audience roundly boo Sturgeon.

    Damn, was hoping for a gain in Wigan.
    That did make me smile
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531
    PaulM said:

    PaulM said:

    tyson said:

    Chameleon said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    @faisalislam: Result 6ish PM tomorrow. "taking nothing for granted" but "Looking OK on paper" I'm told by Team AB https://twitter.com/mattjspencer93/status/860247806539431936
    Labour defeat in GM would be on a par with losing more than 100 seats at the GE.
    Worse than that in my opinion. If Burnham does not win Manchester then we're looking at Labour losing a majority of its' seats.
    I'd love Burnham to lose Manchester....he was the careerist twat that put his personal self interest ahead of anything in the summer putsch last year. Twat....oh yes, I said that.....
    A Scouser shouldn't be mayor of Manchester. Not right.
    He's been an MP for a Greater Manchester seat for 16 years
    Leigh. People there hate being in Greater Manchester. There was a wonderful vox pop after Brexit in Leigh where some old bloke playing crown green bowls went off on one about how it wasn't right that people couldn't take control of their own affairs. The interviewer thought it was an EU issue. Turned out he was complaining still about Leigh falling under Wigan metro since 1974 and wanted Leigh Town Hall back so they weren't ruled by Wiganers!

    Bloody uppity lobbygobbling colonials! Don't know what's good for 'em!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Well, everyone enjoy a dull morning while the overnights are digested but before the results tomorrow start coming in.

    Here's hoping the results throw up a few surprises.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    PembrokeshireCC‏ @Pembrokeshire 57s58 seconds ago

    All the ballot boxes are in for the County and Town/Community Elections. #PembsLGE #LGE17
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    PaulM said:

    PaulM said:

    tyson said:

    Chameleon said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    @faisalislam: Result 6ish PM tomorrow. "taking nothing for granted" but "Looking OK on paper" I'm told by Team AB https://twitter.com/mattjspencer93/status/860247806539431936
    Labour defeat in GM would be on a par with losing more than 100 seats at the GE.
    Worse than that in my opinion. If Burnham does not win Manchester then we're looking at Labour losing a majority of its' seats.
    I'd love Burnham to lose Manchester....he was the careerist twat that put his personal self interest ahead of anything in the summer putsch last year. Twat....oh yes, I said that.....
    A Scouser shouldn't be mayor of Manchester. Not right.
    He's been an MP for a Greater Manchester seat for 16 years
    Leigh. People there hate being in Greater Manchester. There was a wonderful vox pop after Brexit in Leigh where some old bloke playing crown green bowls went off on one about how it wasn't right that people couldn't take control of their own affairs. The interviewer thought it was an EU issue. Turned out he was complaining still about Leigh falling under Wigan metro since 1974 and wanted Leigh Town Hall back so they weren't ruled by Wiganers!

    Exactly.....Leigh is hardly the centre of Manchester.

    It is as a shit hole full of Brexit wollenbacks
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2017
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    OUT said:

    chestnut said:

    SHOUTY women for Labour on QT - Wigan audience roundly boo Sturgeon.

    Damn, was hoping for a gain in Wigan.
    Real Pie eaters are out canvassing for the SNP, not sitting in the QT audience.

    Long-Bailey is lauaghably awful.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531
    PaulM said:

    dixiedean said:

    PaulM said:

    dixiedean said:

    PaulM said:

    tyson said:

    Chameleon said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    @faisalislam: Result 6ish PM tomorrow. "taking nothing for granted" but "Looking OK on paper" I'm told by Team AB https://twitter.com/mattjspencer93/status/860247806539431936
    Labour defeat in GM would be on a par with losing more than 100 seats at the GE.
    Worse than that in my opinion. If Burnham does not win Manchester then we're looking at Labour losing a majority of its' seats.
    I'd love Burnham to lose Manchester....he was the careerist twat that put his personal self interest ahead of anything in the summer putsch last year. Twat....oh yes, I said that.....
    A Scouser shouldn't be mayor of Manchester. Not right.
    He's not a Scouser. He's from Culcheth.
    Went to school there, but he was born in Aintree and he and his family are good Evertonians. Regardless, he's not a Manc, and when it comes to it he has to prefer Liverpool to Manchester.
    Where you are born is not relevent, By that criterion Boris is a New Yorker. He is 100% woollyback.
    Hahahaha

    Are you applying the Queens Drive rule ? Purist, I'll give you that :)
    Woollybacks perform a vital service. Stopping us living next to Scousers! :)
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621



    Did the railway from Bidston to Wrecsam Canalog a couple of weeks ago.

    Pretty, it isn't! But you at least arrive in Wrecsam right next to the greatest football ground in the world... well, the oldest international football stadium and the home of the world's third oldest club.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    OUT said:

    chestnut said:

    SHOUTY women for Labour on QT - Wigan audience roundly boo Sturgeon.

    Damn, was hoping for a gain in Wigan.
    Real Pie eaters are out canvassing for the SNP, not sitting in the QT audience.

    Long-Bailey is lauaghably awful.
    She can tell us all what a triumph the local results are - the great thing is she can do it no matter what the results show.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    Thornberry boasting about Labour's ground game...

    She's IOS and I claim my £80,000,000 from Labour.

    But how many policemen will that buy?

    Dianne Abbott says 10,000. You simply have to subtract "Wednesday" from "37" to get the result.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    AndyJS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sheffield Southey Lab hold

    Lab 1594
    LDem 706
    UKIP 593
    Con 388
    Green 97
    Yorksire 46
    WEQ 49

    UKIP not dead in the north?
    I'm guessing this is in Blunkett's former constituency where there have been various problems that have helped UKIP recently.
    L Dem +14.89
    Tories +6.07
    WEQ +1.41
    Yorkshire +1.32

    TUSC -1.63
    Green -2.33
    Lab -5.5
    UKIP -14.24
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    OUT said:

    chestnut said:

    SHOUTY women for Labour on QT - Wigan audience roundly boo Sturgeon.

    Damn, was hoping for a gain in Wigan.
    Real Pie eaters are out canvassing for the SNP, not sitting in the QT audience.

    Long-Bailey is lauaghably awful.
    Don't be ridiculous! Diane Abbott & Long Bailey are PB tips for next Lab leader
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Pulpstar said:

    Lay (Bet Against)
    Andy Burnham 1.01 £233.00 £2.33

    I'm not laying Andy Burnham....

    Wheres my coat???
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    welshowl said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    Ha. Better than me - laid at 1.02, very good value.

    Changing topic - Davis is enjoying QT. Wood talking balls about Welsh interests...

    I like Leanne, and would happily listen to her whatever she is talking about.
    Jesus. Pity those of us that live in Wales and might be affected by her loony ramblings.
    She has a lovely Indian accent :lol:
    There's a story behind that. I have heard that some Welsh people have been offended because they thought the Indians speaking in a Welsh accent were taking the piss.
    I just know that when I attempt a Welsh accent it invariably ends up closer to an Indian one and vice versa
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    RobD said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/theresa-may-breaks-away-cameron-cronyism-mps-standing-told-will/

    She's saving the political capital to give our very own JohnO the first hereditary dukedom in decades. :p

    But she needs more Con Peers in the Lords - in particular to get the Boundary changes through in Oct 2018.

    This was the ideal opportunity to bolster numbers.

    And the total size of the Lords has been edging downwards - now down to 801 - approx 35 below peak.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,146
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/theresa-may-breaks-away-cameron-cronyism-mps-standing-told-will/

    She's saving the political capital to give our very own JohnO the first hereditary dukedom in decades. :p

    But she needs more Con Peers in the Lords - in particular to get the Boundary changes through in Oct 2018.

    This was the ideal opportunity to bolster numbers.

    And the total size of the Lords has been edging downwards - now down to 801 - approx 35 below peak.
    I suspect it'll be in the manifesto. That, and LD attrition (assuming she tops up the Con numbers from time to time).
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    IanB2 said:

    Another old chestnut gets resurrected. Politicians love FPTP when they are winning. When they are getting hammered then suddenly it is time for PR

    Maybe TSE could do us an AV thread? :D

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/proportional-representation-electoral-reform-pr-labour-manifesto-jeremy-corbyn-a7715786.html

    Except both Thornberry and whoever is now the !abour spokesman on LBC are arguing strongly for the current system. If they are about to change their people aren't on message (as usual).
    There has always been a strong movement in Labour for PR (see Robin Cook etc in the past).
    It's no wonder the electorate are disengaged when so many seats are safe. There really is no point voting in most of them. Not good for democracy.
    The 21st century needs an overhaul. FPTP is not fit for purpose with multiple parties.
    Everyone knows it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.

    oh please let it be true

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/theresa-may-breaks-away-cameron-cronyism-mps-standing-told-will/

    She's saving the political capital to give our very own JohnO the first hereditary dukedom in decades. :p

    But she needs more Con Peers in the Lords - in particular to get the Boundary changes through in Oct 2018.

    This was the ideal opportunity to bolster numbers.

    And the total size of the Lords has been edging downwards - now down to 801 - approx 35 below peak.
    I would not be surprised if the abolition of the HOL and a new style second chamber is in the manifesto
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,146
    edited May 2017
    Still waiting for any England seats to declare.

    BBC results website laughably crap, if I do say so myself. :D
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    OUT said:

    chestnut said:

    SHOUTY women for Labour on QT - Wigan audience roundly boo Sturgeon.

    Damn, was hoping for a gain in Wigan.
    Real Pie eaters are out canvassing for the SNP, not sitting in the QT audience.

    Long-Bailey is lauaghably awful.
    Don't be ridiculous! Diane Abbott & Long Bailey are PB tips for next Lab leader
    To be fair, in a world where satire is dead, it is possible. No one ever made money betting on the sensible choice for Labour Leader!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    IanB2 said:

    Another old chestnut gets resurrected. Politicians love FPTP when they are winning. When they are getting hammered then suddenly it is time for PR

    Maybe TSE could do us an AV thread? :D

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/proportional-representation-electoral-reform-pr-labour-manifesto-jeremy-corbyn-a7715786.html

    Except both Thornberry and whoever is now the !abour spokesman on LBC are arguing strongly for the current system. If they are about to change their people aren't on message (as usual).
    I expect no less from Corbyn's Labour. It is why they are unelectable as far as I am concerned
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Monty said:

    IanB2 said:

    Another old chestnut gets resurrected. Politicians love FPTP when they are winning. When they are getting hammered then suddenly it is time for PR

    Maybe TSE could do us an AV thread? :D

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/proportional-representation-electoral-reform-pr-labour-manifesto-jeremy-corbyn-a7715786.html

    Except both Thornberry and whoever is now the !abour spokesman on LBC are arguing strongly for the current system. If they are about to change their people aren't on message (as usual).
    There has always been a strong movement in Labour for PR (see Robin Cook etc in the past).
    It's no wonder the electorate are disengaged when so many seats are safe. There really is no point voting in most of them. Not good for democracy.
    The 21st century needs an overhaul. FPTP is not fit for purpose with multiple parties.
    Everyone knows it.
    I agree - but Labour has also always had a strong rearguard opposing any change. The likes of John Reid were briefing the press 'over their dead body' regarding AV in 2010 at the very same time that Gordon Brown was desperately trying to secure a deal.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Con hold Central Beds Shefford by election
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    MTimT said:

    welshowl said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    Ha. Better than me - laid at 1.02, very good value.

    Changing topic - Davis is enjoying QT. Wood talking balls about Welsh interests...

    I like Leanne, and would happily listen to her whatever she is talking about.
    Jesus. Pity those of us that live in Wales and might be affected by her loony ramblings.
    She has a lovely Indian accent :lol:
    There's a story behind that. I have heard that some Welsh people have been offended because they thought the Indians speaking in a Welsh accent were taking the piss.
    I just know that when I attempt a Welsh accent it invariably ends up closer to an Indian one and vice versa
    You don't. You end up with a Welsh Indian accent as opposed to a Welsh accent.

    Some of the early teachers of English in India were Welsh missionaries who obviously also passed on the accent. However not all Indians speak with that accent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    edited May 2017
    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.

    oh please let it be true

    Swansea East is the most leave constituency in Wales.

    East, not west.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Another Labour loss to IND In Wrexham
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    isam said:

    OUT said:

    chestnut said:

    SHOUTY women for Labour on QT - Wigan audience roundly boo Sturgeon.

    Damn, was hoping for a gain in Wigan.
    Real Pie eaters are out canvassing for the SNP, not sitting in the QT audience.

    Long-Bailey is lauaghably awful.
    Don't be ridiculous! Diane Abbott & Long Bailey are PB tips for next Lab leader
    To be fair, in a world where satire is dead, it is possible. No one ever made money betting on the sensible choice for Labour Leader!
    Honestly, at this point, after Corbyn, ferchrissakes, what makes any of us think that they aren't candidates for Labour leader? Thornberry too.

    It's precisely the problem Labour have if - after some miracle - Corbyn stands down tonight, as some of you have suggested.

    Nobody believes the Labour Party is capable of making a sensible choice any more. They think even if Corbyn stands down, it's still the party of Dianne Abbott the maths whizz and McDonnell the Mao enthusiast.

    I do think the 33/1 on Stephen Kinnock that's available is a half decent bet though.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Lbc is rather good. Simon Hughes skewering labour man with very polite questions...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    And another Labour hold in Flint.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/theresa-may-breaks-away-cameron-cronyism-mps-standing-told-will/

    She's saving the political capital to give our very own JohnO the first hereditary dukedom in decades. :p

    But she needs more Con Peers in the Lords - in particular to get the Boundary changes through in Oct 2018.

    This was the ideal opportunity to bolster numbers.

    And the total size of the Lords has been edging downwards - now down to 801 - approx 35 below peak.
    Talk like that will be giving Justin kill'em all the horn...All those dead politicians!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,146
    :o Two seats in from Warwickshire. 1 CON, 1 LAB.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Tory gain from Lab in Warwickshire
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Unbelievably every Joe public caller is on voting systems....... Is this pb radio?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    RobD said:

    :o Two seats in from Warwickshire. 1 CON, 1 LAB.

    Where on earth is Labour winning in Warwickshire ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,146
    IanB2 said:

    Tory gain from Lab in Warwickshire

    Was that a gain? I don't have the notional results unfortunately.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory gain from Lab in Warwickshire

    Was that a gain? I don't have the notional results unfortunately.
    A gain on notional results after boundary changes, I believe
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Ceredigion council result will be one ward reSult short as candidate died last week and election postponed until next month
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,146
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    :o Two seats in from Warwickshire. 1 CON, 1 LAB.

    Where on earth is Labour winning in Warwickshire ?
    Bedworth Central
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    IanB2 said:

    Tory gain from Lab in Warwickshire

    first blood, in a gushing artery?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,146
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory gain from Lab in Warwickshire

    Was that a gain? I don't have the notional results unfortunately.
    A gain on national results after boundary changes, I believe
    OK! Don't suppose you know the full notional results for the council?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    isam said:

    OUT said:

    chestnut said:

    SHOUTY women for Labour on QT - Wigan audience roundly boo Sturgeon.

    Damn, was hoping for a gain in Wigan.
    Real Pie eaters are out canvassing for the SNP, not sitting in the QT audience.

    Long-Bailey is lauaghably awful.
    Don't be ridiculous! Diane Abbott & Long Bailey are PB tips for next Lab leader
    To be fair, in a world where satire is dead, it is possible. No one ever made money betting on the sensible choice for Labour Leader!
    Those were mad tips though. We know labour has a woman problem....
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/theresa-may-breaks-away-cameron-cronyism-mps-standing-told-will/

    She's saving the political capital to give our very own JohnO the first hereditary dukedom in decades. :p

    But she needs more Con Peers in the Lords - in particular to get the Boundary changes through in Oct 2018.

    This was the ideal opportunity to bolster numbers.

    And the total size of the Lords has been edging downwards - now down to 801 - approx 35 below peak.
    I would not be surprised if the abolition of the HOL and a new style second chamber is in the manifesto
    I'd be amazed if it were. There will be no time for constitutional tinkering in the next parliament. Maybe a commitment to set up a Royal Commission on the future of the constitution/parliament, but even that I think is unlikely.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    marke09 said:

    Ceredigion council result will be one ward reSult short as candidate died last week and election postponed until next month

    Didn't they change the rules on dying candidates a few years back?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory gain from Lab in Warwickshire

    Was that a gain? I don't have the notional results unfortunately.
    I don't know how the boundary changes have affected things but Labour had a 32% majority in Bedworth North in 2013.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,146

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory gain from Lab in Warwickshire

    Was that a gain? I don't have the notional results unfortunately.
    I don't know how the boundary changes have affected things but Labour had a 32% majority in Bedworth North in 2013.
    OK, I put it down as a Con gain. The first of the night!
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Prof Roger Scully‏ @roger_scully 1m1 minute ago

    Two Labour losses in Wrexham, two holds in Flintshire, so far.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory gain from Lab in Warwickshire

    Was that a gain? I don't have the notional results unfortunately.
    I don't know how the boundary changes have affected things but Labour had a 32% majority in Bedworth North in 2013.
    notional labour
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    IanB2 said:

    marke09 said:

    Ceredigion council result will be one ward reSult short as candidate died last week and election postponed until next month

    Didn't they change the rules on dying candidates a few years back?
    not sure but they have held a minutes silence at the count
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Con hold Central Beds Biggleswade North
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    marke09 said:

    IanB2 said:

    marke09 said:

    Ceredigion council result will be one ward reSult short as candidate died last week and election postponed until next month

    Didn't they change the rules on dying candidates a few years back?
    not sure but they have held a minutes silence at the count
    I thought the election used to be stopped but now it carries on (and is re-held if the dead person wins), but I might be having an Abbot moment and it's the other way around?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    LibDem gain in Monmouthshire from Labour
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Stockingford

    2017 election result
    Caroline Suzanne PHILLIPS - elected

    Labour (952 votes)
    Other Candidates

    Jamie CUMMINGS
    Conservative (776 votes)

    Maggie MORRISSEY
    Green (162 votes)
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    QT is in Norwich on 18th May.....I've already booked tickets for Brad Mehdlau.....Better things to do....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory gain from Lab in Warwickshire

    Was that a gain? I don't have the notional results unfortunately.
    A gain on national results after boundary changes, I believe
    OK! Don't suppose you know the full notional results for the council?
    No, but it looks like Britain Elects is working from them. The old council was Tory 26, Lab 22 LD 9

    LibDem gain in Monmouth from Lab!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    tyson said:

    QT is in Norwich on 18th May.....I've already booked tickets for Brad Mehdlau.....Better things to do....

    :)
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    edited May 2017
    TudorRose said:

    LibDem gain in Monmouthshire from Labour

    21.73%+ lead (over PC) gone - just like Hillary's firewall.
    That was Labour's 120th safest ward in Wales
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Warwickshire now Con 1 Lab 3
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    I am finding the election so exciting that I am falling asleep.

    Good night all
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Stephen Bush‏Verified account @stephenkb 5m5 minutes ago

    Conservatives GAIN a seat from Labour in Warwickshire: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/05/new-statesman-2017-local-elections-liveblog
    2 replies 4 retweets 2 likes
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Just seen this on Twitter:

    "Labour won with 72% of the vote in 2012:
    Independent GAIN Gwersllyt North (Wrexham) from Labour"

    If that is correct to go from 72% of the vote to losing the seat is exceptional. Something strange there, perhaps some very local factors.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,146
    LD Hold Cotswold: Cirencester Beeches.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531
    Lab gain in Monmouthshire
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Hes a memberof UKIP but now running as Independent has told BBC CYmru he feels as if hes lost his seat in Aberporth Ceredigion
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,146
    Bedworth West on Warwickshire - CON. Gain or hold?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    dixiedean said:

    Lab gain in Monmouthshire

    Wow!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    TudorRose said:

    LibDem gain in Monmouthshire from Labour

    In a ward that used to be a 3-way Tory/Lab/PC split with LDs a distant fourth
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Mark Wallace‏Verified account @wallaceme 3m3 minutes ago

    Mark Wallace Retweeted David Short

    Labour vote down from 23% in 2015 to 14% in this Central Bedfordshire by-election. cc @britainelects
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    nunu said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lab gain in Monmouthshire

    Wow!
    They're bound to win some places - with thousands of races they cannot all be losses, holds or did not place.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Newsnight projecting 300-400 Labour losses (say LBC) total UK
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    IanB2 said:

    Newsnight projecting 300-400 Labour losses (say LBC) total UK

    Toward upper end of predicted losses is that not?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    RobD said:

    Bedworth West on Warwickshire - CON. Gain or hold?

    Labour had a 38% majority in Bedworth West in 2013 so even with boundary changes I think we can assume that's a Conservative gain on a big swing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,146
    Anyone know which councils are counting a bit tonight, but declaring late tomorrow? I should probably be keeping an eye on those counts too.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    edited May 2017
    nunu said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lab gain in Monmouthshire

    Wow!
    edit/ yes, from Ind. maybe not so meaningful - it depends what type of Ind and whether they stood down.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    IanB2 said:

    Newsnight projecting 300-400 Labour losses (say LBC) total UK

    !No way! that really would be a meltdown.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    RobD said:

    Anyone know which councils are counting a bit tonight, but declaring late tomorrow? I should probably be keeping an eye on those counts too.

    http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/all_2017_by_time.php
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lab gain in Monmouthshire

    Wow!
    Is this a mistake? LD gain Caldicot Castle
    They've gained a ward off an independent, perhaps the independent just wasn't very good.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Now a Tory gain in Monmouth from the LibDems
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,146
    As always, PB is ahead of the BBC. We've got 10 seats in our database, but they've only got 8. :D
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2017
    tyson said:

    QT is in Norwich on 18th May.....I've already booked tickets for Brad Mehdlau.....Better things to do....

    Also the leaders debate on ITV, minus two shy people, but more importantly Leicester playing Spurs at home.

    "Champions of England - you'll never sing that" ;-)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lab gain in Monmouthshire

    Wow!
    They're bound to win some places - with thousands of races they cannot all be losses, holds or did not place.
    Indeed. Especially in rural areas where people know the candidates very well. I know socially all 4 of the candidates in my ward. It had a big effect on how I voted!
  • augustus_carpaugustus_carp Posts: 224
    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lab gain in Monmouthshire

    Wow!
    Is this a mistake? LD gain Caldicot Castle
    No, they seem to have gained one from an Independent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 49s50 seconds ago

    Conservative GAIN Larkfield (Monmouthshire) from Liberal Democrat.


    Monmouthshire merry-go-round
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,146
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Anyone know which councils are counting a bit tonight, but declaring late tomorrow? I should probably be keeping an eye on those counts too.

    http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/all_2017_by_time.php
    Yeah, those are the declaration times for the full council.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    nunu said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lab gain in Monmouthshire

    Wow!
    2012 result

    Ind 47%
    Lab 43%
    Con 11%

    and it was Labour in 2008, so not worth a wow :wink:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Third Labour loss in Wrexham
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    edited May 2017
    marke09 said:

    Stephen Bush‏Verified account @stephenkb 5m5 minutes ago

    Conservatives GAIN a seat from Labour in Warwickshire: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/05/new-statesman-2017-local-elections-liveblog
    2 replies 4 retweets 2 likes

    Oh dear poor Labour, never mind

    23:41: Andrew Forbes is asking what it's looking like in Scotland.

    I'm hearing a lot but not much I can double source place to place. But the story is what you'd expect: SNP and Tories doing much better, Labour collapsing, Liberal Democrats stagnating. For those of you not glued to the warp and weft of Scottish local government, don't forget that these councils were last contested in 2012, back when Labour were still a thing in Scotland. So expect it to be brutal.
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