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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and

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  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    Ishmael_Z said:

    "Maidenblower" is an excellent name.

    Sadly it's a misspelling (or a Freudian slip): should be 'Maidenbower'.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    DavidL said:

    Saltire said:

    DavidL said:

    As I said earlier today my local polling station was unusually quiet this morning but there is definitely more of an election buzz on in Edinburgh. I wouldn't be surprised if turnout there was pretty good for locals held on a day when there is nothing else on.

    I think that in Edinburgh where all 5 parties have MSPs and also prospects of having at least a few councillors plus almost no chance of anybody being in the majority leads to a much more interesting and vigorous campaign than in other parts of the country say closer to home to yourself.
    Agreed. Although Angus is quite marginal for the SNP in terms of control. Dundee looks rock solid for them. I hear that the tories in Edinburgh are quite bullish. We shall have to see.
    Will be interesting if the results give any indication of the SNP vulnerabilities in the Edin SW and Edin North and Leith seats to either the Con in either or Labour in Edin North.
    I think that Angus is somewhat complicated by the number of independents standing and were elected last time. Notable that in 2 of the 4 person wards there are only 5 candidates - not exactly demanding conditions to get elected!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @hendopolis: THE SCOTSMAN: 'Emotional' May could jeopardise Brexit deal #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/860246536151814144/photo/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    Good news for Corbyn?

    @stephenkb: .@patrickkmaguire tells me that turnout in the metro mayor election in Liverpool was just 10% at 8pm: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

    Is that good or bad for Rotheram ?
    You would expect the better Conservative areas in Southport and Wirral to have a higher turnout than that.
    Well I've got £300 on Rotheram there to win £30.

    As before, I don't think Burnham is a 1.01 shot though. Or if he is, Sion Simon is a cert. He isn't.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Ishmael_Z said:

    "Maidenblower" is an excellent name.

    Sadly it's a misspelling (or a Freudian slip): should be 'Maidenbower'.
    Still not bad.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @hendopolis: TGE GUARDIAN: Show respect in Brexit talks, Tusk tells May #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/860244062472941570/photo/1

    'Calls for calm on both sides'

    Tusk seems a sensible chap.
    Didn't he also tell her to stop being so emotional.
    "Calm down, dear" would probably work well on TMay.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Disraeli said:

    Donald Tusk: 'Don't let Brexit emotions get out of hand'
    "These negotiations are difficult enough as they are," Mr Tusk told reporters.

    "If we start arguing before they even begin, they will become impossible.

    "The stakes are too high to let our emotions get out of hand because at stake are the daily lives and interests of millions of people on both sides of the channel.

    "We must keep in mind that in order to succeed we need today discretion, moderation, mutual respect and a maximum of goodwill."

    The call for discretion is thought to be aimed at EC President Jean-Claude Juncker, who reportedly called Mrs May "delusional" following a Downing Street dinner to discuss Brexit.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39812626

    Quite, he tweeted that. I asked him if he was taking the piss.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    Lay (Bet Against)
    Andy Burnham 1.01 £233.00 £2.33

    Is Andy Burnham going to be the Ed Balls of these elections?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Current LBC caller can't get his head round FPTP.

    Seriously? It's the easiest one to understand, even its name makes it clear.
    What rubbish is this?! Its name is as fraudulent as its results, since it is the only voting system that actually doesn't have a post.
    I think the public can understand being first past a metaphorical post.

    Wait, no, now I get the confusion.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Scott_P said:

    @hendopolis: TGE GUARDIAN: Show respect in Brexit talks, Tusk tells May #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/860244062472941570/photo/1

    Hahahahaha! :smiley:

    Talk about SPIN! Tusk telling everbody to calm down and the Guardian tries to spin it as directed at the British PM.

    Desperate!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lay (Bet Against)
    Andy Burnham 1.01 £233.00 £2.33

    Is Andy Burnham going to be the Ed Balls of these elections?
    Probably not, but I can't have him at 100 to 1 on.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @agcolehamilton: Crushingly low turnout in #SNP areas- 22% in Muirhouse W, whilst heavy in LibDem ones 66%-Blackhall. Look for surprises tomorrow #council17
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Current LBC caller can't get his head round FPTP.

    Seriously? It's the easiest one to understand, even its name makes it clear.
    What rubbish is this?! Its name is as fraudulent as its results, since it is the only voting system that actually doesn't have a post.
    ?

    In what sense does let's say AV "have a post"?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Good news for Corbyn?

    @stephenkb: .@patrickkmaguire tells me that turnout in the metro mayor election in Liverpool was just 10% at 8pm: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

    Christ. People really want this extra layer of bureaucracy don't they?

    Some fool released a proposal to have a fourth mayor in Bristol!
    A few weeks ago I was discussing someone if we should start having elected judges (I'm opposed), I asked him what he thought the turnout would be in judicial elections.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Polls closed - "v close" in W. Midlands where Conservatives put huge effort into -Lab still think can win, its turnout "better than hoped"
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    Good news for Corbyn?

    @stephenkb: .@patrickkmaguire tells me that turnout in the metro mayor election in Liverpool was just 10% at 8pm: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

    People who don't vote should stop blaming everyone else for their apathy and look to themselves IMO.
    Any suggestions as to what they should do with the unused ballot papers...?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    Good news for Corbyn?

    @stephenkb: .@patrickkmaguire tells me that turnout in the metro mayor election in Liverpool was just 10% at 8pm: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

    Is that good or bad for Rotheram ?
    You would expect the better Conservative areas in Southport and Wirral to have a higher turnout than that.
    There are no Conservative areas in Southport , the Lib Dems won every ward last May
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Scott_P said:

    @agcolehamilton: Crushingly low turnout in #SNP areas- 22% in Muirhouse W, whilst heavy in LibDem ones 66%-Blackhall. Look for surprises tomorrow #council17

    Ah good, I've just put down a few quid on Carmichael.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Scott_P said:

    @hendopolis: THE SCOTSMAN: 'Emotional' May could jeopardise Brexit deal #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/860246536151814144/photo/1

    Then the EU leaders are liars or fools.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,881
    Disraeli said:

    Scott_P said:

    @hendopolis: TGE GUARDIAN: Show respect in Brexit talks, Tusk tells May #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/860244062472941570/photo/1

    Hahahahaha! :smiley:

    Talk about SPIN! Tusk telling everbody to calm down and the Guardian tries to spin it as directed at the British PM.

    Desperate!
    You'll enjoy the Scotsman's take:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/860246536151814144
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Polls closed - "v close" in W. Midlands where Conservatives put huge effort into -Lab still think can win, its turnout "better than hoped"

    How does Labour know those people are actually voting Labour at the polls ?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    BigRich said:

    Chameleon said:

    dr_spyn said:
    I would have been flabbergasted if they didn't lose control. Now them calling if for a Con majority this early would be a sign that things are going as wrong as we hope/expect,
    Calling it for Con this early sounds more like expectation management to me.

    That does not mean it wont still be bad or Very bad for labour.
    Who's calling Nottinghamshire as a Conservative gain ?
    Sorry, I had misread the previous comment,
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,910

    EU launches fresh bid to strip City of Euro trade

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/860242376081780736

    Either the Euro aspires to be a reserve currency traded where traders feel like the EU wants to bring in capital controls. London is the biggest trader in dollars, Euros and outside of China the Renimbi.

    I can't see how they can stop trading in London in what ever London wants to trade in. I suspect that makes the French very very angry.
    The clearing issue is a bit more complicated than that, and refers almost entirely to the derivative business, where people need to net trades off against each other to avoid excessive margin requirements. I'll write a piece when I'm not in bed...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Polls closed - "v close" in W. Midlands where Conservatives put huge effort into -Lab still think can win, its turnout "better than hoped"

    How does Labour know those people are actually voting Labour at the polls ?
    v good point
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Ishmael_Z said:

    "Maidenblower" is an excellent name.

    Sadly it's a misspelling (or a Freudian slip): should be 'Maidenbower'.
    What's going on in Maidenbower? (It's just up the road from me)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    edited May 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Current LBC caller can't get his head round FPTP.

    Seriously? It's the easiest one to understand, even its name makes it clear.
    What rubbish is this?! Its name is as fraudulent as its results, since it is the only voting system that actually doesn't have a post.
    ?

    In what sense does let's say AV "have a post"?
    The winning post in AV is 50% (of the votes cast). If someone gets 50% in the first round, they are elected. If not, the lowest candidate is eliminated and votes transferred, and this continues until someone gets to 50% of the valid votes remaining.

    The winning post in STV is the calculated quota (total votes divided by the number of candidates plus one, rounded up). The winning post in list systems is calculated using the D'Hondt formula.

    Whereas our voting system has no winning post at all! You can win with 10% of the vote if the other ten candidates get 9% of the vote each.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.

    El collapso.

    If the Labour vote REALLY has collapsed, I might have let the Tory in through the back door in my ward...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    Good news for Corbyn?

    @stephenkb: .@patrickkmaguire tells me that turnout in the metro mayor election in Liverpool was just 10% at 8pm: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

    Is that good or bad for Rotheram ?
    You would expect the better Conservative areas in Southport and Wirral to have a higher turnout than that.
    There are no Conservative areas in Southport , the Lib Dems won every ward last May
    Yet the Conservatives are favourites to win the constituency.

    Are LibDem betters a little shy ?

    I'm on the LibDems to win Southport BTW.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.

    El collapso.
    Would indicate that YouGov wasn't an outlier.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122

    Disraeli said:

    Scott_P said:

    @hendopolis: TGE GUARDIAN: Show respect in Brexit talks, Tusk tells May #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/860244062472941570/photo/1

    Hahahahaha! :smiley:

    Talk about SPIN! Tusk telling everbody to calm down and the Guardian tries to spin it as directed at the British PM.

    Desperate!
    You'll enjoy the Scotsman's take:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/860246536151814144
    The more the eurocrats and remainers attack the PM on this the more votes will pile up for her.

    If there is a lesson from Juncker's leakings it is that this should be the end of it and proper confidential negotiations take place keeping Junckers out of it. Leave it to Tusk who of course represents the Nation states who have most to lose if it hits a brick wall
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    How does Labour know those people are actually voting Labour at the polls ?

    @faisalislam: Same Labour source claims W Midlands turnout low in more Tory areas such as Solihull/Sutton C ..not counting tonight result 6pm tomorrow
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.

    El collapso.
    Would indicate that YouGov wasn't an outlier.
    Polling station was dead today (Other half said it was too). Was HEAVING for the Brexit vote
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Polls closed - "v close" in W. Midlands where Conservatives put huge effort into -Lab still think can win, its turnout "better than hoped"

    How does Labour know those people are actually voting Labour at the polls ?
    Community Leaders ?
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    Disraeli said:

    Scott_P said:

    @hendopolis: TGE GUARDIAN: Show respect in Brexit talks, Tusk tells May #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/860244062472941570/photo/1

    Hahahahaha! :smiley:

    Talk about SPIN! Tusk telling everbody to calm down and the Guardian tries to spin it as directed at the British PM.

    Desperate!
    You'll enjoy the Scotsman's take:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/860246536151814144
    :smiley:
    Thanks for the link, william - even funnier.!
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    rcs1000 said:

    EU launches fresh bid to strip City of Euro trade

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/860242376081780736

    Either the Euro aspires to be a reserve currency traded where traders feel like the EU wants to bring in capital controls. London is the biggest trader in dollars, Euros and outside of China the Renimbi.

    I can't see how they can stop trading in London in what ever London wants to trade in. I suspect that makes the French very very angry.
    The clearing issue is a bit more complicated than that, and refers almost entirely to the derivative business, where people need to net trades off against each other to avoid excessive margin requirements. I'll write a piece when I'm not in bed...
    I appreciate that but I can't see how they can control where the trades take place.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How does Labour know those people are actually voting Labour at the polls ?

    @faisalislam: Same Labour source claims W Midlands turnout low in more Tory areas such as Solihull/Sutton C ..not counting tonight result 6pm tomorrow
    I'd be surprised if the Tory GOTV has failed, my Dad says he's never seen a campaign like it. And he's been through afew.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How does Labour know those people are actually voting Labour at the polls ?

    @faisalislam: Same Labour source claims W Midlands turnout low in more Tory areas such as Solihull/Sutton C ..not counting tonight result 6pm tomorrow
    Islam anti conservative - who would have thought it
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Paul_D1963: Back from voting. Was @UKLabour local candidate 2015 but can’t support #Corbyn. Voted #LibDems #Brexit #LocalElections2017 #LocalElections
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.

    Really? Could be a bloodbath then.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Would not winning W Midlands count as a bad night for the Tories? They've pushed har dand seemed very confident.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Scott_P said:

    @Paul_D1963: Back from voting. Was @UKLabour local candidate 2015 but can’t support #Corbyn. Voted #LibDems #Brexit #LocalElections2017 #LocalElections

    Christ when your own bloody candidates can't support you...
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Scott_P said:

    @agcolehamilton: Crushingly low turnout in #SNP areas- 22% in Muirhouse W, whilst heavy in LibDem ones 66%-Blackhall. Look for surprises tomorrow #council17

    LDs will make gains in Edinburgh - we managed to lose 14 of our 17 seats five years ago. But the real prize is 5 weeks time in the Westminster equivalent of Alex Cole-Hamilton's Holyrood seat and regaining Edinburgh West.
    Poor turnout for the SNP today may well not be repeated next month but it shows there is a drop in the enthusiasm of the members for campaigning. They average about 2000 members per Westminster seat (or 200 per ward) but a lot of their wards seem only to have 3-4 people working them.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    kle4 said:

    I'm genuinely worried there could be some really pathetic turnout in a lot of places. Had a 21% in one ward in Wiltshire last time, and turnout down in all but 1ward. could see plenty going sub 20%.

    In my ward in south Trafford the turnout was described as "normal" when I asked. One local election and the Manchester Mayoral.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Given that in 2013 UKIP were at their peak, and the near total levels of them transferring to the Tories, I'm predicting a total bloodbath tonight for Lab in terms of seats held.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    edited May 2017
    That fits, Swansea is very wwc I think. So too is my manor.

    People can't bear to come out and vote Labour.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    4 minutes to vote !

    what are doing on here! u should be out getting out as many last minute votes for you as possible! (too late now).
    I've helped out in the target ward, mine has been a more err... relaxed.. campaign ;)
    u should have gone out and intentionally annoyed the voters....
    Labour did that with their bloody car megaphone campaign reminding the street to Vote Labour. Woke my other half up, wasn't impressed .. still voting Labour in the GE tho ><</p>
    :0........
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    edited May 2017

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    Good news for Corbyn?

    @stephenkb: .@patrickkmaguire tells me that turnout in the metro mayor election in Liverpool was just 10% at 8pm: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

    Is that good or bad for Rotheram ?
    You would expect the better Conservative areas in Southport and Wirral to have a higher turnout than that.
    There are no Conservative areas in Southport , the Lib Dems won every ward last May
    There are no trams in Southport, since 2015 :(
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    kle4 said:

    Would not winning W Midlands count as a bad night for the Tories? They've pushed har dand seemed very confident.

    Nah, WM is very demographically friendly to Lab. Gaining a majority in fewer than 10 more councils than 2013 counts as a bad result in my book.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Current LBC caller can't get his head round FPTP.

    Seriously? It's the easiest one to understand, even its name makes it clear.
    What rubbish is this?! Its name is as fraudulent as its results, since it is the only voting system that actually doesn't have a post.
    ?

    In what sense does let's say AV "have a post"?
    The winning post in AV is 50% (of the votes cast). If someone gets 50% in the first round, they are elected. If not, the lowest candidate is eliminated and votes transferred, and this continues until someone gets to 50% of the valid votes remaining.

    The winning post in STV is the calculated quota (total votes divided by the number of candidates plus one, rounded up). The winning post in list systems is calculated using the D'Hondt formula.

    Whereas our voting system has no winning post at all! You can win with 10% of the vote if the other ten candidates get 9% of the vote each.
    OK thanks got you now!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.

    El collapso.

    If the Labour vote REALLY has collapsed, I might have let the Tory in through the back door in my ward...
    You stood as a limp dump?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Would not winning W Midlands count as a bad night for the Tories? They've pushed har dand seemed very confident.

    Nah, WM is very demographically friendly to Lab. Gaining a majority in fewer than 10 more councils than 2013 counts as a bad result in my book.
    Tories are clear favourites in the betting. Gove sounds fairly hopeful on LBC.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    kle4 said:

    Would not winning W Midlands count as a bad night for the Tories? They've pushed har dand seemed very confident.

    Nah. West Midlands mayoral election held on same boundaries as last year's W Mids PCC election (UKIP also standing)

    image
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.

    El collapso.

    If the Labour vote REALLY has collapsed, I might have let the Tory in through the back door in my ward...
    You stood as a limp dump?
    Cheeky :p Yes, we wanted a full slate. And the party isn't so massive here ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.

    El collapso.
    Would indicate that YouGov wasn't an outlier.
    Polling station was dead today (Other half said it was too). Was HEAVING for the Brexit vote
    No-one can be arsed for these elections.

    My polling station was deserted this morning too.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    @faisalislam: Result 6ish PM tomorrow. "taking nothing for granted" but "Looking OK on paper" I'm told by Team AB https://twitter.com/mattjspencer93/status/860247806539431936
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.

    El collapso.

    If the Labour vote REALLY has collapsed, I might have let the Tory in through the back door in my ward...
    You stood as a limp dump?
    Cheeky :p Yes, we wanted a full slate. And the party isn't so massive here ;)
    Should I highlight your ward on the google doc? :p:D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Would not winning W Midlands count as a bad night for the Tories? They've pushed har dand seemed very confident.

    Nah, WM is very demographically friendly to Lab. Gaining a majority in fewer than 10 more councils than 2013 counts as a bad result in my book.
    I think people underestimate just how tough this should have been for Street. For him to win would be an earthquake. It is NOT the western half of the midlands region.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Presumably a lot of those people who had not voted in years, but voted in the referendum last year, have gone back to non voting.
    Or do you think that they might have gotten a taste for it?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Pulpstar said:

    That fits, Swansea is very wwc I think. So too is my manor.

    People can't bear to come out and vote Labour.
    My wife, an Italian socialist, voted Labour by mistake...she was so annoyed with herself, such is his visceral loathing of Corbyn.....

    At least I managed to get into the Green box.....

  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Chameleon said:

    Given that in 2013 UKIP were at their peak, and the near total levels of them transferring to the Tories, I'm predicting a total bloodbath tonight for Lab in terms of seats held.

    There are still some (in my opinion) insanely good bets to be had on size of Con majority.

    Even the worst baxtering of the polls so far comes up at +150 seats and you can still get 6.4 (150-174) and 7 (175-199) on betfair.

    Those odds have come in sharply today by the way, I got another tenner on the Tories at 175 - 199 at 12.5 earlier today.

    If we assume the results tonight predict a labour bloodbath those odds will shorten much further tomorrow.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    @faisalislam: Result 6ish PM tomorrow. "taking nothing for granted" but "Looking OK on paper" I'm told by Team AB https://twitter.com/mattjspencer93/status/860247806539431936
    No need to worry, I've greened up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.

    El collapso.

    If the Labour vote REALLY has collapsed, I might have let the Tory in through the back door in my ward...
    You stood as a limp dump?
    Cheeky :p Yes, we wanted a full slate. And the party isn't so massive here ;)
    Go Cllr Pulpstar! LibDem surge coming your way...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.

    El collapso.

    If the Labour vote REALLY has collapsed, I might have let the Tory in through the back door in my ward...
    You stood as a limp dump?
    Cheeky :p Yes, we wanted a full slate. And the party isn't so massive here ;)
    :smile:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Disraeli said:

    Presumably a lot of those people who had not voted in years, but voted in the referendum last year, have gone back to non voting.
    Or do you think that they might have gotten a taste for it?

    Some, maybe, but call me cynical I don't think many. The only previous non-voter I am sure of said they'd never vote again, and hasn't for the locals, although they are now saying they will vote in the GE to 'Stop Corbyn'.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    West Midlands shouldn't be close if the Labour meltdown is true.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.

    El collapso.

    If the Labour vote REALLY has collapsed, I might have let the Tory in through the back door in my ward...
    You stood as a limp dump?
    Cheeky :p Yes, we wanted a full slate. And the party isn't so massive here ;)
    Go Cllr Pulpstar! LibDem surge coming your way...
    Clay Cross North is the one to watch in North East Derbyshire.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    That fits, Swansea is very wwc I think. So too is my manor.

    People can't bear to come out and vote Labour.
    My wife, an Italian socialist, voted Labour by mistake...she was so annoyed with herself, such is his visceral loathing of Corbyn.....

    At least I managed to get into the Green box.....

    If her box is green, see an STD specialist.

    Fnarr Fnarr
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Disraeli said:

    Presumably a lot of those people who had not voted in years, but voted in the referendum last year, have gone back to non voting.
    Or do you think that they might have gotten a taste for it?

    If they've gotten a taste for it then the polls will likely be off by a sizeable amount. I think that its perfectly credible to believe that just because they haven't voted tonight doesn't mean that they won't vote in the GE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Pulpstar said:

    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Would not winning W Midlands count as a bad night for the Tories? They've pushed har dand seemed very confident.

    Nah, WM is very demographically friendly to Lab. Gaining a majority in fewer than 10 more councils than 2013 counts as a bad result in my book.
    I think people underestimate just how tough this should have been for Street. For him to win would be an earthquake. It is NOT the western half of the midlands region.
    Well done him if he wins then. He seems a very credible candidate.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    That fits, Swansea is very wwc I think. So too is my manor.

    People can't bear to come out and vote Labour.
    My wife, an Italian socialist, voted Labour by mistake...she was so annoyed with herself, such is his visceral loathing of Corbyn.....

    At least I managed to get into the Green box.....

    How do you manage to vote for the wrong party by mistake ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Chameleon said:

    Disraeli said:

    Presumably a lot of those people who had not voted in years, but voted in the referendum last year, have gone back to non voting.
    Or do you think that they might have gotten a taste for it?

    If they've gotten a taste for it then the polls will likely be off by a sizeable amount. I think that its perfectly credible to believe that just because they haven't voted tonight doesn't mean that they won't vote in the GE.
    The ~2 million non GE voting Brexiteers don't bother for small time elections.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @agcolehamilton: Crushingly low turnout in #SNP areas- 22% in Muirhouse W, whilst heavy in LibDem ones 66%-Blackhall. Look for surprises tomorrow #council17

    Ah good, I've just put down a few quid on Carmichael.
    careful-could mean you're elected! (o.k so it's scotland but still...)

    Alistar do we think many libdems could vote 1) libdem 2) tory 3) Labour or not?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Strong and (un)stable...

    @RobDotHutton: David Davis tells #bbcqt that May was goaded into accusing the EU of interference by stories in the Times and the FT.

    @RobDotHutton: Basically, he's saying we're having a diplomatic row that's the fault of @JeremyCliffe, @oliver_wright and @alexebarker.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2017

    West Midlands shouldn't be close if the Labour meltdown is true.

    Well it depends how Labour is melting down. There's relatively few WWC, and a lot more BMEs, the former which have gone over the Con heavily, while the latter haven't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Labour meltdown and yet 30% in the polls....
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    That fits, Swansea is very wwc I think. So too is my manor.

    People can't bear to come out and vote Labour.
    My wife, an Italian socialist, voted Labour by mistake...she was so annoyed with herself, such is his visceral loathing of Corbyn.....

    At least I managed to get into the Green box.....

    How do you manage to vote for the wrong party by mistake ?
    I voted LAB once! That was a mistake!

    :LOL:
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    That fits, Swansea is very wwc I think. So too is my manor.

    People can't bear to come out and vote Labour.
    My wife, an Italian socialist, voted Labour by mistake...she was so annoyed with herself, such is his visceral loathing of Corbyn.....

    At least I managed to get into the Green box.....

    How do you manage to vote for the wrong party by mistake ?
    She was speaking to her mum before....trust me, you could do the same.....

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    Re. Scotch turnout, fwiw partner was manning a polling station in the West End of Glasgow; their turnout 42%, adjacent one 50% which seem high for locals.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    That fits, Swansea is very wwc I think. So too is my manor.

    People can't bear to come out and vote Labour.
    My wife, an Italian socialist, voted Labour by mistake...she was so annoyed with herself, such is his visceral loathing of Corbyn.....

    At least I managed to get into the Green box.....

    So annoyed that she changed sex! (Just leg pulling)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    @faisalislam: Result 6ish PM tomorrow. "taking nothing for granted" but "Looking OK on paper" I'm told by Team AB https://twitter.com/mattjspencer93/status/860247806539431936
    Labour defeat in GM would be on a par with losing more than 100 seats at the GE.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    Ha. Better than me - laid at 1.02, very good value.

    Changing topic - Davis is enjoying QT. Wood talking balls about Welsh interests...

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    That fits, Swansea is very wwc I think. So too is my manor.

    People can't bear to come out and vote Labour.
    My wife, an Italian socialist, voted Labour by mistake...she was so annoyed with herself, such is his visceral loathing of Corbyn.....

    At least I managed to get into the Green box.....

    How do you manage to vote for the wrong party by mistake ?
    It's finding out so quickly that is the unusual bit?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    IanB2 said:

    Labour meltdown and yet 30% in the polls....

    Crazy. Pollsters to have egg on their faces, or they have ended up with amazingly inefficient voters. Or Corbyn is right!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    Ha. Better than me - laid at 1.02, very good value.

    Changing topic - Davis is enjoying QT. Wood talking balls about Welsh interests...

    I like Leanne, and would happily listen to her whatever she is talking about.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Burnham might well win simply because

    Well can anyone here actually name his challenger ?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    Ha. Better than me - laid at 1.02, very good value.

    Changing topic - Davis is enjoying QT. Wood talking balls about Welsh interests...

    As much as I hate to say it, David Davis is really quite good.......
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Verification complete for Newport North on Isle of Wight!

    It's happening :o
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    @faisalislam: Result 6ish PM tomorrow. "taking nothing for granted" but "Looking OK on paper" I'm told by Team AB https://twitter.com/mattjspencer93/status/860247806539431936
    Labour defeat in GM would be on a par with losing more than 100 seats at the GE.
    Worse than that in my opinion. If Burnham does not win Manchester then we're looking at Labour losing a majority of its' seats.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: The weirdness of #GE2017: a friend at a BBC national outlet tells me they rang 70 different Labour MPs to come on yesterday. None agreed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    RobD said:

    Verification complete for Newport North on Isle of Wight!

    It's happening :o

    :O :O :O :O :O :O
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    IanB2 said:

    Labour meltdown and yet 30% in the polls....

    You got 30% in 2015 - remind me who won? :lol:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    Ha. Better than me - laid at 1.02, very good value.

    Changing topic - Davis is enjoying QT. Wood talking balls about Welsh interests...

    I like Leanne, and would happily listen to her whatever she is talking about.
    She is hopeless as is Plaid - going nowhere
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Chameleon said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    @faisalislam: Result 6ish PM tomorrow. "taking nothing for granted" but "Looking OK on paper" I'm told by Team AB https://twitter.com/mattjspencer93/status/860247806539431936
    Labour defeat in GM would be on a par with losing more than 100 seats at the GE.
    Worse than that in my opinion. If Burnham does not win Manchester then we're looking at Labour losing a majority of its' seats.
    Labour is well under a hundred if Burnham loses I think.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Propecting locals to nationals is a seriously dangerous business given the way the Westminster election is being framed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Pulpstar said:

    Burnham might well win simply because

    Well can anyone here actually name his challenger ?

    Sean Anstee.

    I've met him twice, as he tried to get my vote
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.

    What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?

    Ha. Better than me - laid at 1.02, very good value.

    Changing topic - Davis is enjoying QT. Wood talking balls about Welsh interests...

    As much as I hate to say it, David Davis is really quite good.......
    He is. That's why I voted for him to be leader.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    West Midlands shouldn't be close if the Labour meltdown is true.

    Tories hold only 7 out of 28 constituencies in the WM.
This discussion has been closed.