Prediction: turnout is going great to be sure in Scotland and that will badly affect the SNP.
Someone earlier said poorer turnout tends to hurt the SNP the most.
Damn autocorrect. I meant to say turnout will be dire.
Ah. fair enough.
Snap predictions since I'll be counting all day - Lab to lose in West Midlands and West England but win Teeside, Manchester and of course Liverpool. They won't drop as many seats as the worst predictions, but it will be too much to pretend its an ok night.
Tomorrow, the last day the French media can talk about the election, Le Monde will run a huge piece saying that Le Pen tells a whole lot of lies. Everything she says is a lie. Her knickers are on fire.
How will the stories against her opponent fare? The big one at the moment is the accusation that Macron has a personal financial involvement offshore, in order to evade tax. This is being heavily pushed by the alt.right. The supposedly supporting documents, widely said to be fake, purport to show an operating agreement signed by himself and relating to a company registered in St Kitts and Nevis. Le Pen said in the debate that she hoped it wouldn't be revealed that Macron had a bank account in the Bahamas. She has since said that she wasn't accusing him of having one, and that if she knew he did then she would have claimed so explicitly. IIRC - corrections welcome - she referred to him and the Bahamas in that way only after he had said that people under criminal investigation, indicating Le Pen herself, shouldn't run for the national assembly.
One understands why his campaign is focusing on the line that Le Pen tells lies.
The Bahamas aren't St Kitts and Nevis, and since it's improbable that PutinFancy Bear the alt-right will stand its forces down on Friday and Saturday, one has to wonder what's going to happen next. There's a kind of hole on Saturday, where even if the internet goes completely mental with stories about Macron - or for that matter, about Le Pen - the French mainstream media is supposed not to touch them, because the eve of the vote is the day of election purdah.
Prediction: turnout is going great to be sure in Scotland and that will badly affect the SNP.
Was busy at my place when i voted. Very unusual even for a G.E. Even had 2 candidates there, never seen that before.
Where about are you? Although how busy it is for the 2 minutes at a polling station is not a great indication of how busy it has been over the 14 hours.
As I said earlier today my local polling station was unusually quiet this morning but there is definitely more of an election buzz on in Edinburgh. I wouldn't be surprised if turnout there was pretty good for locals held on a day when there is nothing else on.
I don't know why at the very start the pundits for these things don't just hold up a big card with the cliches they intended to employ until the first results come in, and just spend the time until then discussing Game of Thrones theories or something instead.
Given the guests, I think topics could include "the correct way to fly the Union Jack", "acting or politics", ...
Prediction: turnout is going great to be sure in Scotland and that will badly affect the SNP.
Was busy at my place when i voted. Very unusual even for a G.E. Even had 2 candidates there, never seen that before.
Where about are you? Although how busy it is for the 2 minutes at a polling station is not a great indication of how busy it has been over the 14 hours.
Prediction: turnout is going great to be sure in Scotland and that will badly affect the SNP.
Was busy at my place when i voted. Very unusual even for a G.E. Even had 2 candidates there, never seen that before.
Where about are you? Although how busy it is for the 2 minutes at a polling station is not a great indication of how busy it has been over the 14 hours.
59 Conservative 31 Labour 10 Lib Dem 2 UKIP 1 Green 1 Resident 3 Ind
UKIP are not defending 1 of their 2 seats Ind not defending any of their 3 seats
Conservatives standing in 106 - would be all 107 though their candidate in Hall Green has been expelled from the party . Labour 85 LDem 83 Green 53 UKIP 43 Ind/Others 36
Car sales fall 19.8% in April compared to April last year.
They were well up in March vs last year, I heard this morning. Some big excise change?
Apparently the society of motor manufacturers etc said it was expected due to the vehicle excise duty changes. People got there purchases in March instead of April.
Weren't we told that that invoking A50 would cause an immediate recession ?
' Activity in the UK's service sector accelerated in April, with new work growing at its fastest pace this year, according to a closely-watched survey.
That would include advice to businesses and the rich on how to move money out of the country
Been working 67 on the Lab defence list since 5am Final turnout 23% in best LD area 22% in our best area. Only 18% in our 2nd best area. Conclusion. Too close for comfort. Turnout figures at 9.30 pm excluding postal votes.
Prediction: turnout is going great to be sure in Scotland and that will badly affect the SNP.
Was busy at my place when i voted. Very unusual even for a G.E. Even had 2 candidates there, never seen that before.
Where about are you? Although how busy it is for the 2 minutes at a polling station is not a great indication of how busy it has been over the 14 hours.
On the day of the IndyRef at the point I had voted turnout was unremarkable according to the polling place staff.
I don't know why at the very start the pundits for these things don't just hold up a big card with the cliches they intended to employ until the first results come in, and just spend the time until then discussing Game of Thrones theories or something instead.
Nice idea, but it might be a bit difficult for the Radio listeners to actually see those cards....
I'm genuinely worried there could be some really pathetic turnout in a lot of places. Had a 21% in one ward in Wiltshire last time, and turnout down in all but 1ward. could see plenty going sub 20%.
I don't know why at the very start the pundits for these things don't just hold up a big card with the cliches they intended to employ until the first results come in, and just spend the time until then discussing Game of Thrones theories or something instead.
Nice idea, but it might be a bit difficult for the Radio listeners to actually see those cards....
The cards would be read out too, silly - even on TV we have the blind to consider
I don't want to tempt fate too much, but I hope all PB Tories are getting ready to say how much they fear Corbyn and how vital he is to Labour's chances in the General Election.
Stephen BushVerified account @stephenkb 3m3 minutes ago
It's #LE2017's first rumour of the night: Labour fear they've lsot control of Nottinghamshire County Council:
Considering that Labour were defending a majority of 1 its not the bravest prediction.
Not only are they defending a majority of one seat, the most marginal seat has a majority of precisely nine votes. (Although that was before boundary changes).
I'm genuinely worried there could be some really pathetic turnout in a lot of places. Had a 21% in one ward in Wiltshire last time, and turnout down in all but 1ward. could see plenty going sub 20%.
v. low in SE Oxfordshire when I voted around 5 this afternoon. There was also a town council by-election on that would decide who has a majority.
what are doing on here! u should be out getting out as many last minute votes for you as possible! (too late now).
I've helped out in the target ward, mine has been a more err... relaxed.. campaign
u should have gone out and intentionally annoyed the voters....
Labour did that with their bloody car megaphone campaign reminding the street to Vote Labour. Woke my other half up, wasn't impressed .. still voting Labour in the GE tho ><
I would have been flabbergasted if they didn't lose control. Now them calling if for a Con majority this early would be a sign that things are going as wrong as we hope/expect,
As I said earlier today my local polling station was unusually quiet this morning but there is definitely more of an election buzz on in Edinburgh. I wouldn't be surprised if turnout there was pretty good for locals held on a day when there is nothing else on.
I think that in Edinburgh where all 5 parties have MSPs and also prospects of having at least a few councillors plus almost no chance of anybody being in the majority leads to a much more interesting and vigorous campaign than in other parts of the country say closer to home to yourself.
I would have been flabbergasted if they didn't lose control. Now them calling if for a Con majority this early would be a sign that things are going as wrong as we hope/expect,
Calling it for Con this early sounds more like expectation management to me.
That does not mean it wont still be bad or Very bad for labour.
Donald Tusk: 'Don't let Brexit emotions get out of hand' "These negotiations are difficult enough as they are," Mr Tusk told reporters.
"If we start arguing before they even begin, they will become impossible.
"The stakes are too high to let our emotions get out of hand because at stake are the daily lives and interests of millions of people on both sides of the channel.
"We must keep in mind that in order to succeed we need today discretion, moderation, mutual respect and a maximum of goodwill."
The call for discretion is thought to be aimed at EC President Jean-Claude Juncker, who reportedly called Mrs May "delusional" following a Downing Street dinner to discuss Brexit.
what are doing on here! u should be out getting out as many last minute votes for you as possible! (too late now).
I've helped out in the target ward, mine has been a more err... relaxed.. campaign
u should have gone out and intentionally annoyed the voters....
Labour did that with their bloody car megaphone campaign reminding the street to Vote Labour. Woke my other half up, wasn't impressed .. still voting Labour in the GE tho ><</p>
I've got the other problem.. trying all the tricks in the book to convince my other half to vote Lab. "But Theresa seems so admirable" *barf*
As I said earlier today my local polling station was unusually quiet this morning but there is definitely more of an election buzz on in Edinburgh. I wouldn't be surprised if turnout there was pretty good for locals held on a day when there is nothing else on.
I think that in Edinburgh where all 5 parties have MSPs and also prospects of having at least a few councillors plus almost no chance of anybody being in the majority leads to a much more interesting and vigorous campaign than in other parts of the country say closer to home to yourself.
Agreed. Although Angus is quite marginal for the SNP in terms of control. Dundee looks rock solid for them. I hear that the tories in Edinburgh are quite bullish. We shall have to see.
Under that name it was once owned by Shirley Porter, former Tory leader of Westminster Council, convicted of corruption, daughter of Jack Cohen who founded Tesco.
"Yet Westminster council, which is owed £37m by Lady Porter, has so far managed to seize about £7,000-worth of her belongings, including a portrait and a gold-plated lavatory seat. Last year she caused amazement by declaring that her assets were worth only £300,000 - about one-thousandth of what she was thought to be actually worth."
what are doing on here! u should be out getting out as many last minute votes for you as possible! (too late now).
I've helped out in the target ward, mine has been a more err... relaxed.. campaign
u should have gone out and intentionally annoyed the voters....
Labour did that with their bloody car megaphone campaign reminding the street to Vote Labour. Woke my other half up, wasn't impressed .. still voting Labour in the GE tho ><</p>
I've got the other problem.. trying all the tricks in the book to convince my other half to vote Lab. "But Theresa seems so admirable" *barf*
Is the 'secret NHS privatisation plan' gambit not even working?
It's gonna be a wonderful night for the Tories, come June...
I would have been flabbergasted if they didn't lose control. Now them calling if for a Con majority this early would be a sign that things are going as wrong as we hope/expect,
Calling it for Con this early sounds more like expectation management to me.
That does not mean it wont still be bad or Very bad for labour.
Who's calling Nottinghamshire as a Conservative gain ?
Either the Euro aspires to be a reserve currency traded where traders feel like the EU wants to bring in capital controls. London is the biggest trader in dollars, Euros and outside of China the Renimbi.
I can't see how they can stop trading in London in what ever London wants to trade in. I suspect that makes the French very very angry.
Emily cleverly saying how it's a presidential GE by the Tories, no mention of Conservatives just her named on the leaflets as the Tory name is still Toxic.
Dale says does that mean Corbyn's Toxic as no Lab literature shows him on it?
Comments
Very unusual even for a G.E.
Even had 2 candidates there, never seen that before.
It's #LE2017's first rumour of the night: Labour fear they've lsot control of Nottinghamshire County Council:
Are these really the most interesting by-elections you could find for today - they're all in safe constituencies.
Paging TSE
Snap predictions since I'll be counting all day - Lab to lose in West Midlands and West England but win Teeside, Manchester and of course Liverpool. They won't drop as many seats as the worst predictions, but it will be too much to pretend its an ok night.
LDs will underperform the expectations
How will the stories against her opponent fare? The big one at the moment is the accusation that Macron has a personal financial involvement offshore, in order to evade tax. This is being heavily pushed by the alt.right. The supposedly supporting documents, widely said to be fake, purport to show an operating agreement signed by himself and relating to a company registered in St Kitts and Nevis. Le Pen said in the debate that she hoped it wouldn't be revealed that Macron had a bank account in the Bahamas. She has since said that she wasn't accusing him of having one, and that if she knew he did then she would have claimed so explicitly. IIRC - corrections welcome - she referred to him and the Bahamas in that way only after he had said that people under criminal investigation, indicating Le Pen herself, shouldn't run for the national assembly.
One understands why his campaign is focusing on the line that Le Pen tells lies.
The Bahamas aren't St Kitts and Nevis, and since it's improbable that Putin Fancy Bear the alt-right will stand its forces down on Friday and Saturday, one has to wonder what's going to happen next. There's a kind of hole on Saturday, where even if the internet goes completely mental with stories about Macron - or for that matter, about Le Pen - the French mainstream media is supposed not to touch them, because the eve of the vote is the day of election purdah.
Or STV slows the voting process. 9 candidates in my ward.
Designated Survivor.
59 Conservative
31 Labour
10 Lib Dem
2 UKIP
1 Green
1 Resident
3 Ind
UKIP are not defending 1 of their 2 seats
Ind not defending any of their 3 seats
Conservatives standing in 106 - would be all 107 though their candidate in Hall Green has been expelled from the party . Labour 85 LDem 83 Green 53 UKIP 43 Ind/Others 36
Sales year to date are up on last year.
Not 24esque nonsense, in this show he has a daughter that doesn't manage to find trouble at every opportunity.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/860242376081780736
#PrayForJeremy
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/860242891825926145
Own up - which PB geek has phoned them?
TSE, fancy writing a primer on the subject?
Although, frankly, all that will tell us is that we are in Wales....
Why do people think I'm full of smut laden innuendo.
I'm a paragon of innocence.
That does not mean it wont still be bad or Very bad for labour.
"These negotiations are difficult enough as they are," Mr Tusk told reporters.
"If we start arguing before they even begin, they will become impossible.
"The stakes are too high to let our emotions get out of hand because at stake are the daily lives and interests of millions of people on both sides of the channel.
"We must keep in mind that in order to succeed we need today discretion, moderation, mutual respect and a maximum of goodwill."
The call for discretion is thought to be aimed at EC President Jean-Claude Juncker, who reportedly called Mrs May "delusional" following a Downing Street dinner to discuss Brexit.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39812626
I can't guarantee it because of events, but it should be published in the next week or so.
Don't ask me why, but organisations always blame Easter if they don't like or can't explain their sales figures.
From the Independent:
"Yet Westminster council, which is owed £37m by Lady Porter, has so far managed to seize about £7,000-worth of her belongings, including a portrait and a gold-plated lavatory seat. Last year she caused amazement by declaring that her assets were worth only £300,000 - about one-thousandth of what she was thought to be actually worth."
Tusk seems a sensible chap.
Junckers is toxic and needs sidelining - doubt he will be seeing the inside of No 10 anytime soon
It's gonna be a wonderful night for the Tories, come June...
@stephenkb: .@patrickkmaguire tells me that turnout in the metro mayor election in Liverpool was just 10% at 8pm: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…
You could argue that the French use a quasi-AV system to elect their President.
I can't see how they can stop trading in London in what ever London wants to trade in. I suspect that makes the French very very angry.
Dale says does that mean Corbyn's Toxic as no Lab literature shows him on it?
Great stuff.
Promises, promises.
Andy Burnham 1.01 £233.00 £2.33
Some fool released a proposal to have a fourth mayor in Bristol!