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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and

SystemSystem Posts: 12,261
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and counting until GE 2017)

Today, as well as the elections to the English counties, Scottish councils, Welsh councils (of which I am currently dozing in order to be bright eyed and bushy tailed at anything up to 4.00am tomorrow morning) and the new Metro Mayor elections (not forgetting Doncaster of course), there are 107 local by-elections up and down the country in those areas which do not have any local elections. Now clearly 107 is way too many for a single preview so here are some of the rather choice ones of those 107.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    1st
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    wondering if my first will stand this time or disappear once again into the alternative vanilla universe ...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    "Maidenblower" is an excellent name.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,984
    MTimT said:

    wondering if my first will stand this time or disappear once again into the alternative vanilla universe ...

    Where you will find all my wittiest comments.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    :)
    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    wondering if my first will stand this time or disappear once again into the alternative vanilla universe ...

    Where you will find all my wittiest comments.
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    edited May 2017
    If there is any credence in the theory that UKIP are finished and their former supporters are mostly turning blue, then Maxton should not be too close to call. It should be a clear Tory gain.

    Edit: and thank you, Harry, as ever. Good luck at the count.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    Thanks Harry!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Scott_P said:

    @SunPolitics: Lifelong Labour supporter and Apprentice star Michelle Dewberry standing for Parliament in Hull – because Jeremy C… https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3483623/3483623/

    The arrogance that it’s a safe Labour seat astounds me. I want to challenge this idea of ‘tribal voting’

    So many do. But then they tick the safe box again and again.

    the Conservatives do not have the “best interests of the seat in their hearts”.

    “The Tories promise us Brexit which is great. But many people here will struggle with the brand and their other policies.

    Interesting the struggle with the brand is listed first.

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    I hear demand for voting today as been as the same the morning after pill on a SAGA holiday.

    Be interesting to see if that continues with the GE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Well, at least UKIP put up a candidate to defend the seat in Dover, which seems rare these days.

    I cannot imagine why Harry didn't put in the thankless effort of putting up details of all by-elections being held! Barely over a hundred, pah.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    A good summary of Prince Philip's best zingers over the years:
    http://www.eonline.com/news/848493/prince-philip-s-22-biggest-gaffes-and-most-shocking-one-liners-over-the-years
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Ishmael_Z said:

    "Maidenblower" is an excellent name.

    Pick of the crop of this selection, certainly.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    "Maidenblower" is an excellent name.

    Pick of the crop of this selection, certainly.
    Before you two get carried away, it should in fact be "Maidenbower".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2017
    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
    When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west who stood against a hospital closure springs to mind.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
    When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.
    Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    philiph said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
    When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.
    Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy
    He was a member of the now defunct New Labour (War Criminal) Party.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    RobD said:

    philiph said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
    When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.
    Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy
    He was a member of the now defunct New Labour (War Criminal) Party.
    Shortened to "the spurs" by arsenal supporting moamentumers.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So my Wirral south bet £20 @ 8 On Lab

    I can turn that into a free bet on Lab to win £110 or a guaranteed £47 (assuming no unbelievable 3rd place surge).

    Thoughts?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Came in from an 11-hour doorstep stint in marginal Beeston South (Nottinghamshire). It's an interesting test case of how far a ground game makes a difference. In principle it ought to be an easy Tory gain on current polling - Labour held it by 3.6% in 2013, and altough there have been boundary changes which should help a bit, I doubt if the real margin going into the election was more than 7%. It's a reasonably prosperous typically C1 WWC ward, good swing vote territory. And there's a 15% UKIP vote for the Tories to squeeze.

    But Labour pulled in activists from all over the place - there were easily 30 people knocking up for much of the day, more than that division gets in a General Election. I recognised a full spectrum of them too, Momentum organisers mingling cheerfully with longstanding Blairites. We knocked up three times. Quite a few voters had forgotten about it, because of all the GE coverage.

    Will that be enough? Dunno. Overall turnout is said to be "about average" (30-35%), and virtually all our supposed promises said they had voted or would vote for us, so on the face of it we ought to be getting differential turnout. But will we? We'll know tomorrow.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RobD said:

    philiph said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
    When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.
    Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy
    He was a member of the now defunct New Labour (War Criminal) Party.
    Shortened to "the spurs" by arsenal supporting moamentumers.
    I wan to see TSEs old bar chart showing number of years since a majority at a GE for 1) The Tories, 2) Old Labour, 3) New Labour (War Criminal). :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    NickPalmer said:

    Came in from an 11-hour doorstep stint in marginal Beeston South (Nottinghamshire).

    Is that a typical length of a stint? Seems a lot to ask even of fervent supporters.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    LOL:

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/senate-wont-vote-on-house-passed-healthcare-bill/article/2622152
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    kle4 said:

    Well, at least UKIP put up a candidate to defend the seat in Dover, which seems rare these days.

    I cannot imagine why Harry didn't put in the thankless effort of putting up details of all by-elections being held! Barely over a hundred, pah.

    If you want a slightly more in depth preview of all the by-elections you could try this:

    http://election-data.co.uk/local-elections-preview-part-i
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Alistair said:

    So my Wirral south bet £20 @ 8 On Lab

    I can turn that into a free bet on Lab to win £110 or a guaranteed £47 (assuming no unbelievable 3rd place surge).

    Thoughts?

    No one has gone broke taking free money. That being said I'd split the difference and secure a small profit while keeping an upside open.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RobD said:

    philiph said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
    When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.
    Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy
    He was a member of the now defunct New Labour (War Criminal) Party.
    Shortened to "the spurs" by arsenal supporting moamentumers.
    I wan to see TSEs old bar chart showing number of years since a majority at a GE for 1) The Tories, 2) Old Labour, 3) New Labour (War Criminal). :D
    I don't. My screen isn't big enough to get it all on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited May 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
    When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west who stood against a hospital closure springs to mind.
    Technically one of the NI seats I think, with Sylvia Hermon? But I presume not all the unionist parties stood against her.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Is there an exit poll in 15 minutes? :lol:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    So my Wirral south bet £20 @ 8 On Lab

    I can turn that into a free bet on Lab to win £110 or a guaranteed £47 (assuming no unbelievable 3rd place surge).

    Thoughts?

    No one has gone broke taking free money. That being said I'd split the difference and secure a small profit while keeping an upside open.
    Fair call, advice followed.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Ave_it said:

    Is there an exit poll in 15 minutes? :lol:

    Two years ago - CON MOST SEATS - 319

    AVE IT!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Saltire said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, at least UKIP put up a candidate to defend the seat in Dover, which seems rare these days.

    I cannot imagine why Harry didn't put in the thankless effort of putting up details of all by-elections being held! Barely over a hundred, pah.

    If you want a slightly more in depth preview of all the by-elections you could try this:

    http://election-data.co.uk/local-elections-preview-part-i
    Much obliged
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Are the West Midlands votes being counted by machine or by hand?

    *dons additional layer of tin foil*
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Ave_it said:

    Is there an exit poll in 15 minutes? :lol:

    No knowledge, but for locals I doubt it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
    If not for my potential winnings I'd be all in favour. Well, maybe the Tories can win the East seat at least.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Ave_it said:

    Is there an exit poll in 15 minutes? :lol:

    Con Maj Nailed On
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    Is there an exit poll in 15 minutes? :lol:

    Two years ago - CON MOST SEATS - 319

    AVE IT!
    https://youtu.be/9EYUkV-SHFw?t=4m45s

    :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2017
    So is there any "action" of interest this evening? Or is it all tomorrow / tomorrow evening?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    NickPalmer said:

    Came in from an 11-hour doorstep stint in marginal Beeston South (Nottinghamshire). It's an interesting test case of how far a ground game makes a difference. In principle it ought to be an easy Tory gain on current polling - Labour held it by 3.6% in 2013, and altough there have been boundary changes which should help a bit, I doubt if the real margin going into the election was more than 7%. It's a reasonably prosperous typically C1 WWC ward, good swing vote territory. And there's a 15% UKIP vote for the Tories to squeeze.

    But Labour pulled in activists from all over the place - there were easily 30 people knocking up for much of the day, more than that division gets in a General Election. I recognised a full spectrum of them too, Momentum organisers mingling cheerfully with longstanding Blairites. We knocked up three times. Quite a few voters had forgotten about it, because of all the GE coverage.

    Will that be enough? Dunno. Overall turnout is said to be "about average" (30-35%), and virtually all our supposed promises said they had voted or would vote for us, so on the face of it we ought to be getting differential turnout. But will we? We'll know tomorrow.

    How many activists does Labour have in Nottinghamshire if you don't mind me asking ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So is there any "action" of interest this evening? Or is it all tomorrow / tomorrow evening?

    PB's very own news network will be keeping you up to date with the overnight counts, at least in England! We should get ten or so by 4am.

    https://goo.gl/uzcozl
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,216
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So is there any "action" of interest this evening? Or is it all tomorrow / tomorrow evening?

    Well Man U are winning 1-0. Apart from that, not much.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    Is there an exit poll in 15 minutes? :lol:

    Two years ago - CON MOST SEATS - 319

    AVE IT!
    https://youtu.be/9EYUkV-SHFw?t=4m45s

    :D
    I was at a count so missed most of the details - I hadn't realised the SNP had been predicted to do even better than 56!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    I could be El Presidente in 9 mins xD
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    philiph said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
    When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.
    Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy
    He was a tory I believe
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    NickPalmer said:

    Came in from an 11-hour doorstep stint in marginal Beeston South (Nottinghamshire). It's an interesting test case of how far a ground game makes a difference. In principle it ought to be an easy Tory gain on current polling - Labour held it by 3.6% in 2013, and altough there have been boundary changes which should help a bit, I doubt if the real margin going into the election was more than 7%. It's a reasonably prosperous typically C1 WWC ward, good swing vote territory. And there's a 15% UKIP vote for the Tories to squeeze.

    But Labour pulled in activists from all over the place - there were easily 30 people knocking up for much of the day, more than that division gets in a General Election. I recognised a full spectrum of them too, Momentum organisers mingling cheerfully with longstanding Blairites. We knocked up three times. Quite a few voters had forgotten about it, because of all the GE coverage.

    Will that be enough? Dunno. Overall turnout is said to be "about average" (30-35%), and virtually all our supposed promises said they had voted or would vote for us, so on the face of it we ought to be getting differential turnout. But will we? We'll know tomorrow.

    I'm in Beeston/Chilwell and haven't received as much as a leaflet so far, you must have gone all around me at this point heh.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    FPT:
    foxinsoxuk said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Three Quidder

    Maybe not - but all the possible candidates would be visibly better than Corbyn.

    It's hypothetical anyway - he won't quit.

    I agree with that.

    But this is a fun hypothetical game to play. If he did quit, would potential leaders even declare during the GE campaign? If they did, wouldn't that mean that Labour were fighting a leadership election rather than a general election, leaving the field totally open for the Tories? It would certainly underline the "stable" message.
    Watson would be leader, surely.
    Interim, sure (unless he turned it down, in which case the NEC would pick an interim leader from the shadow cabinet). There would still be an election for a permanent leader in the autumn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    It is pretty amusing that 96 of the 563 Lab seats being defended tonight are in the same council, Durham. They love them some Labour up there, clearly.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Off topic: for the last few years I have been following the quixotic Twitter account @RealTimeWWII which tweets events from WW2 time delayed by 72 years.

    Germans just accepted Montgomery's surrender terms a few minutes ago.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Floater said:

    philiph said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
    When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.
    Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy
    He was a tory I believe
    You have a point, I recollect the word scum having traction at the time.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    Weren't we told that that invoking A50 would cause an immediate recession ?

    ' Activity in the UK's service sector accelerated in April, with new work growing at its fastest pace this year, according to a closely-watched survey.

    Markit said the strong performance from the dominant sector, together with similarly upbeat surveys for construction and manufacturing, suggests the economy is currently growing at twice the pace than that seen in the first quarter of the year.

    "The three surveys collectively point to GDP growing at a rate of 0.6% at the start of the second quarter," said IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39802976
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    4 minutes to vote !
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Three Quidder

    Maybe not - but all the possible candidates would be visibly better than Corbyn.

    It's hypothetical anyway - he won't quit.

    I agree with that.

    But this is a fun hypothetical game to play. If he did quit, would potential leaders even declare during the GE campaign? If they did, wouldn't that mean that Labour were fighting a leadership election rather than a general election, leaving the field totally open for the Tories? It would certainly underline the "stable" message.
    Watson would be leader, surely.
    Interim, sure (unless he turned it down, in which case the NEC would pick an interim leader from the shadow cabinet). There would still be an election for a permanent leader in the autumn.
    Being interim leader at a GE has interesting potential for a full leadership, but I cannot see Jezza resigning.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    Saw my first petrol price drop today and it looks like there might be more to come over the next few weeks:

    ' The oil price has fallen to a five-month low as investor concerns re-surface about a worldwide glut.

    Brent crude dropped by more than $2 on Thursday to below $49 a barrel, hitting its lowest level since oil cartel Opec struck a landmark deal to cut output on 30 November. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39812113

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,216
    another_richard said:

    Weren't we told that that invoking A50 would cause an immediate recession ?

    ' Activity in the UK's service sector accelerated in April, with new work growing at its fastest pace this year, according to a closely-watched survey.

    Markit said the strong performance from the dominant sector, together with similarly upbeat surveys for construction and manufacturing, suggests the economy is currently growing at twice the pace than that seen in the first quarter of the year.

    "The three surveys collectively point to GDP growing at a rate of 0.6% at the start of the second quarter," said IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39802976

    I am hoping for 0.6 in Q2 and a revision to 0.4 in Q1 to put me ahead of the game in my bet with Robert.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I voted at 9.15am. I was the only one in the polling station bar the officials.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    another_richard said:

    Weren't we told that that invoking A50 would cause an immediate recession ?

    ' Activity in the UK's service sector accelerated in April, with new work growing at its fastest pace this year, according to a closely-watched survey.

    Markit said the strong performance from the dominant sector, together with similarly upbeat surveys for construction and manufacturing, suggests the economy is currently growing at twice the pace than that seen in the first quarter of the year.

    "The three surveys collectively point to GDP growing at a rate of 0.6% at the start of the second quarter," said IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39802976

    BOOM!

    was that the start of a 21 gun salute and celebration or something Gordon abolished?
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Pencils down, stop voting.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    I could be El Presidente in 9 mins xD

    ... don't let it go to your head!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RobD said:

    philiph said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
    When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.
    Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy
    He was a member of the now defunct New Labour (War Criminal) Party.
    Shortened to "the spurs" by arsenal supporting moamentumers.
    I wan to see TSEs old bar chart showing number of years since a majority at a GE for 1) The Tories, 2) Old Labour, 3) New Labour (War Criminal). :D
    Here you go.image
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Will it be busier on here in 5 weeks?

    :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    OUT said:

    Pencils down, stop voting.

    What about if I have started, can I finish?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RobD said:

    philiph said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
    When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.
    Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy
    He was a member of the now defunct New Labour (War Criminal) Party.
    Shortened to "the spurs" by arsenal supporting moamentumers.
    I wan to see TSEs old bar chart showing number of years since a majority at a GE for 1) The Tories, 2) Old Labour, 3) New Labour (War Criminal). :D
    Here you go.image
    I need a bigger screen!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RobD said:

    philiph said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

    I think she has a chance.
    When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.
    Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy
    He was a member of the now defunct New Labour (War Criminal) Party.
    Shortened to "the spurs" by arsenal supporting moamentumers.
    I wan to see TSEs old bar chart showing number of years since a majority at a GE for 1) The Tories, 2) Old Labour, 3) New Labour (War Criminal). :D
    Here you go.
    You are too good to me :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    These are the seats Labour are defending tonight, up to majorities of 25%:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=0

    Excludes areas affected by boundary changes such as Nottinghamshire.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Hungary, Tarki poll:

    Fidesz/KDNP-EPP: 51% ↓
    Jobbik-NI: 17% ↓
    MSZP-S&D: 15%
    DK-S&D: 8% ↑
    LMP-GREEN: 4%
    M-*: 2% ↑
    Együtt-S&D: 1% ↓

    There's a party out there with a bigger lead than May!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    HaroldO said:



    I'm in Beeston/Chilwell and haven't received as much as a leaflet so far, you must have gone all around me at this point heh.

    Different division, I think? If you're in Chilwell, that's in Toton, Chilwell & Attenborough, which is likely to be one of the safest Tory divisions - so you probably won't have seen a huge amount of activity from anyone. The battlegrounds fo us were Beeston Central&Rylands (not South as I said earlier - old name), Bramcote&Beeston North and Stapleford&Broxtowe Central.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    OUT said:

    Pencils down, stop voting.

    What about if I have started, can I finish?
    Labour is the WRONG answer.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    DavidL said:

    another_richard said:

    Weren't we told that that invoking A50 would cause an immediate recession ?

    ' Activity in the UK's service sector accelerated in April, with new work growing at its fastest pace this year, according to a closely-watched survey.

    Markit said the strong performance from the dominant sector, together with similarly upbeat surveys for construction and manufacturing, suggests the economy is currently growing at twice the pace than that seen in the first quarter of the year.

    "The three surveys collectively point to GDP growing at a rate of 0.6% at the start of the second quarter," said IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39802976

    I am hoping for 0.6 in Q2 and a revision to 0.4 in Q1 to put me ahead of the game in my bet with Robert.
    0.6% growth in Q2 should give 2.1% growth over the previous 12 months.

    Which would be rather better than the 1.7% growth in the 12 months before the Referendum:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyr/pgdp

    What is good to see is that the growth is better balanced and not house price and consumer borrowing based.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    OUT said:

    Pencils down, stop voting.

    What about if I have started, can I finish?
    I'm the returning officer not Magnus Magnusson.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited May 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    OUT said:

    Pencils down, stop voting.

    What about if I have started, can I finish?
    If your name is Star...

    Was that an earlier thread?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    OUT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    OUT said:

    Pencils down, stop voting.

    What about if I have started, can I finish?
    I'm the returning officer not Magnus Magnusson.
    Well we know that as the latter is deceased.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    LBC election night - IS ON
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    NickPalmer said:

    HaroldO said:



    I'm in Beeston/Chilwell and haven't received as much as a leaflet so far, you must have gone all around me at this point heh.

    Different division, I think? If you're in Chilwell, that's in Toton, Chilwell & Attenborough, which is likely to be one of the safest Tory divisions - so you probably won't have seen a huge amount of activity from anyone. The battlegrounds fo us were Beeston Central&Rylands (not South as I said earlier - old name), Bramcote&Beeston North and Stapleford&Broxtowe Central.
    I'm right next to the Inham road tram stop, which isn't far from Toton so that explains that. I thought I was now in either a safe ward or no one cared enough to leaflet, it seems it's the former.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Hungary, Tarki poll:

    Fidesz/KDNP-EPP: 51% ↓
    Jobbik-NI: 17% ↓
    MSZP-S&D: 15%
    DK-S&D: 8% ↑
    LMP-GREEN: 4%
    M-*: 2% ↑
    Együtt-S&D: 1% ↓

    There's a party out there with a bigger lead than May!

    For the time being...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    AndyJS said:

    These are the seats Labour are defending tonight, up to majorities of 25%:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=0

    Excludes areas affected by boundary changes such as Nottinghamshire.

    Much appreciated as ever.

    Oddly enough I think they have a chance defending the smallest unitary defence, better than might be thought at least for a 0.09% majority (1 vote) - potential split Tory vote there.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    LBC election night - IS ON

    London only or National?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    LBC election night - IS ON

    Will Diane Abbott be making an appearance?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    LBC election night - IS ON

    oh shite - they've got Thornberry, Gove and Farage in the studio.

    LBC IS OFF.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    This is perhaps the 20th time its been asked but are the BBC or Sky or someone running rolling results coverage on TV or radio for the locals?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2017
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    LBC election night - IS ON

    oh shite - they've got Thornberry, Gove and Farage in the studio.

    LBC IS OFF.
    You could always switch over to QT in a few minutes.....or perhaps not....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,216
    another_richard said:

    DavidL said:

    another_richard said:

    Weren't we told that that invoking A50 would cause an immediate recession ?

    ' Activity in the UK's service sector accelerated in April, with new work growing at its fastest pace this year, according to a closely-watched survey.

    Markit said the strong performance from the dominant sector, together with similarly upbeat surveys for construction and manufacturing, suggests the economy is currently growing at twice the pace than that seen in the first quarter of the year.

    "The three surveys collectively point to GDP growing at a rate of 0.6% at the start of the second quarter," said IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39802976

    I am hoping for 0.6 in Q2 and a revision to 0.4 in Q1 to put me ahead of the game in my bet with Robert.
    0.6% growth in Q2 should give 2.1% growth over the previous 12 months.

    Which would be rather better than the 1.7% growth in the 12 months before the Referendum:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyr/pgdp

    What is good to see is that the growth is better balanced and not house price and consumer borrowing based.
    I don't think that there is any doubt that our manufacturing in particular is benefiting from a healthier EZ which is a bit ironic, I suppose. My bet is 1.6 or better for the year and I would like to lock in as much as possible early doors since the position in the US in particular remains unclear.

    On the positive side AEP in the Telegraph was forecasting doom today which offsets the encouragement that Robert got when the World Bank revised its figures in my favour!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    SquareRoot said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    LBC election night - IS ON

    London only or National?
    National these days...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Y0kel said:

    This is perhaps the 20th time its been asked but are the BBC or Sky or someone running rolling results coverage on TV or radio for the locals?

    Radio4 ISTR...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Quite a lot of UKIP second places for many of those Lab defences, could be crucial to whether it is a bad night or a terrible night.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    Has Corbyn resigned yet?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Hungary, Tarki poll:

    Fidesz/KDNP-EPP: 51% ↓
    Jobbik-NI: 17% ↓
    MSZP-S&D: 15%
    DK-S&D: 8% ↑
    LMP-GREEN: 4%
    M-*: 2% ↑
    Együtt-S&D: 1% ↓

    There's a party out there with a bigger lead than May!

    They have something in common with May.

    https://twitter.com/balintbardi/status/848536014339457024
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2017
    Prediction: turnout is going to be dire in Scotland and that will badly affect the SNP.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Thornberry boasting about Labour's ground game...

    She's IOS and I claim my £80,000,000 from Labour.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    LBC election night - IS ON

    Is that a London program ?

    When there's no London elections ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Car sales fall 19.8% in April compared to April last year.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Alistair said:

    Off topic: for the last few years I have been following the quixotic Twitter account @RealTimeWWII which tweets events from WW2 time delayed by 72 years.

    Sounds like the Royal Mail in my street,

    (Only partly said for comic effect)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rosschawkins: Like a liveblog. But with talking:

    Election results on @BBCRadio4 & @bbc5live from 1 with @naughtiej & @carolynquinncq - and me
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Alistair said:

    Prediction: turnout is going great to be sure in Scotland and that will badly affect the SNP.

    Someone earlier said poorer turnout tends to hurt the SNP the most.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    surbiton said:

    Car sales fall 19.8% in April compared to April last year.

    Fiat, Peugeot, Citroen and VW in the main.

    Aston Martin up 129%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    Scott_P said:

    @rosschawkins: Like a liveblog. But with talking:

    Election results on @BBCRadio4 & @bbc5live from 1 with @naughtiej & @carolynquinncq - and me

    It'll never catch on...
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Any election exit polls at 10pm?

    Ah yes, Britain to leave the EU
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Y0kel said:

    This is perhaps the 20th time its been asked but are the BBC or Sky or someone running rolling results coverage on TV or radio for the locals?

    When I was in the car earlier I thought I heard James. Naughtie. Say he was on from 1,00am
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited May 2017
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Thornberry boasting about Labour's ground game...

    I don't know why at the very start the pundits for these things don't just hold up a big card with the cliches they intended to employ until the first results come in, and just spend the time until then discussing Game of Thrones theories or something instead.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    surbiton said:

    Car sales fall 19.8% in April compared to April last year.

    because of huge rise last month due to punters beating the road tax changes
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    LBC election night - IS ON

    oh shite - they've got Thornberry, Gove and Farage in the studio.

    LBC IS OFF.
    You could always switch over to QT in a few minutes.....or perhaps not....
    god no...
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    philiph said:

    Y0kel said:

    This is perhaps the 20th time its been asked but are the BBC or Sky or someone running rolling results coverage on TV or radio for the locals?

    When I was in the car earlier I thought I heard James. Naughtie. Say he was on from 1,00am
    Radio4, obviously
This discussion has been closed.