politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and
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Perhaps Lab to LD.Chameleon said:
Then that looks like a net UKIP to LD swing, interesting. (Probably Con voters going LD and UKIP to Con).Pulpstar said:
Labour 1926Chameleon said:
UKIP not dead in the north?MarkSenior said:Sheffield Southey Lab hold
Lab 1594
LDem 706
UKIP 593
Con 388
Green 97
Yorksire 46
WEQ 49
UKIP 1173
Lib Dems 204
Green 192
Tories 191
TUSC 61
Last time (Highest vote, triple member ward)
Lets see a few more before we read tbe tea leaves.0 -
Wild speculation is not as fun when in possession of multiple data points and facts though.foxinsoxuk said:
Perhaps Lab to LD.Chameleon said:
Then that looks like a net UKIP to LD swing, interesting. (Probably Con voters going LD and UKIP to Con).Pulpstar said:
Labour 1926Chameleon said:
UKIP not dead in the north?MarkSenior said:Sheffield Southey Lab hold
Lab 1594
LDem 706
UKIP 593
Con 388
Green 97
Yorksire 46
WEQ 49
UKIP 1173
Lib Dems 204
Green 192
Tories 191
TUSC 61
Last time (Highest vote, triple member ward)
Lets see a few more before we read tbe tea leaves.0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/theresa-may-breaks-away-cameron-cronyism-mps-standing-told-will/
She's saving the political capital to give our very own JohnO the first hereditary dukedom in decades.0 -
Labour's first loss, in Wrexham, has coloured up on their defence list in Wales:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=16619922360 -
Thanks, will do.RobD said:
Check out LBC. It's pretty good.augustus_carp said:Is there any good radio coverage of the events tonight? I was hoping for something on TV, but it's just bloody Question Time again.
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Except both Thornberry and whoever is now the !abour spokesman on LBC are arguing strongly for the current system. If they are about to change their people aren't on message (as usual).Beverley_C said:Another old chestnut gets resurrected. Politicians love FPTP when they are winning. When they are getting hammered then suddenly it is time for PR
Maybe TSE could do us an AV thread?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/proportional-representation-electoral-reform-pr-labour-manifesto-jeremy-corbyn-a7715786.html0 -
I did it in 1990! Preston to Porthmadog on a Sunday! Preston-Bolton-Southport-Liverpool-Bidston-Wrecsam-Shrewsbury-Porthmadog!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Did the railway from Bidston to Wrecsam Canalog a couple of weeks ago.TheScreamingEagles said:Independent GAIN Rhosnesni (Wrexham) from Labour.
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But how many policemen will that buy?Scrapheap_as_was said:Thornberry boasting about Labour's ground game...
She's IOS and I claim my £80,000,000 from Labour.
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Bloody uppity lobbygobbling colonials! Don't know what's good for 'em!PaulM said:
Leigh. People there hate being in Greater Manchester. There was a wonderful vox pop after Brexit in Leigh where some old bloke playing crown green bowls went off on one about how it wasn't right that people couldn't take control of their own affairs. The interviewer thought it was an EU issue. Turned out he was complaining still about Leigh falling under Wigan metro since 1974 and wanted Leigh Town Hall back so they weren't ruled by Wiganers!TheScreamingEagles said:
He's been an MP for a Greater Manchester seat for 16 yearsPaulM said:
A Scouser shouldn't be mayor of Manchester. Not right.tyson said:
I'd love Burnham to lose Manchester....he was the careerist twat that put his personal self interest ahead of anything in the summer putsch last year. Twat....oh yes, I said that.....Chameleon said:
Worse than that in my opinion. If Burnham does not win Manchester then we're looking at Labour losing a majority of its' seats.AndyJS said:
Labour defeat in GM would be on a par with losing more than 100 seats at the GE.Scott_P said:
@faisalislam: Result 6ish PM tomorrow. "taking nothing for granted" but "Looking OK on paper" I'm told by Team AB https://twitter.com/mattjspencer93/status/860247806539431936Pulpstar said:I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.
What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?0 -
Well, everyone enjoy a dull morning while the overnights are digested but before the results tomorrow start coming in.
Here's hoping the results throw up a few surprises.0 -
PembrokeshireCC @Pembrokeshire 57s58 seconds ago
All the ballot boxes are in for the County and Town/Community Elections. #PembsLGE #LGE17
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Exactly.....Leigh is hardly the centre of Manchester.PaulM said:
Leigh. People there hate being in Greater Manchester. There was a wonderful vox pop after Brexit in Leigh where some old bloke playing crown green bowls went off on one about how it wasn't right that people couldn't take control of their own affairs. The interviewer thought it was an EU issue. Turned out he was complaining still about Leigh falling under Wigan metro since 1974 and wanted Leigh Town Hall back so they weren't ruled by Wiganers!TheScreamingEagles said:
He's been an MP for a Greater Manchester seat for 16 yearsPaulM said:
A Scouser shouldn't be mayor of Manchester. Not right.tyson said:
I'd love Burnham to lose Manchester....he was the careerist twat that put his personal self interest ahead of anything in the summer putsch last year. Twat....oh yes, I said that.....Chameleon said:
Worse than that in my opinion. If Burnham does not win Manchester then we're looking at Labour losing a majority of its' seats.AndyJS said:
Labour defeat in GM would be on a par with losing more than 100 seats at the GE.Scott_P said:
@faisalislam: Result 6ish PM tomorrow. "taking nothing for granted" but "Looking OK on paper" I'm told by Team AB https://twitter.com/mattjspencer93/status/860247806539431936Pulpstar said:I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.
What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?
It is as a shit hole full of Brexit wollenbacks
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Is there a Y in the day? Terrorist from London arrested
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4474878/Man-30-arrested-Heathrow-terrorism-charges.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK0 -
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Woollybacks perform a vital service. Stopping us living next to Scousers!PaulM said:
Hahahahadixiedean said:
Where you are born is not relevent, By that criterion Boris is a New Yorker. He is 100% woollyback.PaulM said:
Went to school there, but he was born in Aintree and he and his family are good Evertonians. Regardless, he's not a Manc, and when it comes to it he has to prefer Liverpool to Manchester.dixiedean said:
He's not a Scouser. He's from Culcheth.PaulM said:
A Scouser shouldn't be mayor of Manchester. Not right.tyson said:
I'd love Burnham to lose Manchester....he was the careerist twat that put his personal self interest ahead of anything in the summer putsch last year. Twat....oh yes, I said that.....Chameleon said:
Worse than that in my opinion. If Burnham does not win Manchester then we're looking at Labour losing a majority of its' seats.AndyJS said:
Labour defeat in GM would be on a par with losing more than 100 seats at the GE.Scott_P said:
@faisalislam: Result 6ish PM tomorrow. "taking nothing for granted" but "Looking OK on paper" I'm told by Team AB https://twitter.com/mattjspencer93/status/860247806539431936Pulpstar said:I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.
What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?
Are you applying the Queens Drive rule ? Purist, I'll give you that
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Pretty, it isn't! But you at least arrive in Wrecsam right next to the greatest football ground in the world... well, the oldest international football stadium and the home of the world's third oldest club.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Did the railway from Bidston to Wrecsam Canalog a couple of weeks ago.
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She can tell us all what a triumph the local results are - the great thing is she can do it no matter what the results show.foxinsoxuk said:0 -
Dianne Abbott says 10,000. You simply have to subtract "Wednesday" from "37" to get the result.FrancisUrquhart said:
But how many policemen will that buy?Scrapheap_as_was said:Thornberry boasting about Labour's ground game...
She's IOS and I claim my £80,000,000 from Labour.0 -
L Dem +14.89AndyJS said:
I'm guessing this is in Blunkett's former constituency where there have been various problems that have helped UKIP recently.Chameleon said:
UKIP not dead in the north?MarkSenior said:Sheffield Southey Lab hold
Lab 1594
LDem 706
UKIP 593
Con 388
Green 97
Yorksire 46
WEQ 49
Tories +6.07
WEQ +1.41
Yorkshire +1.32
TUSC -1.63
Green -2.33
Lab -5.5
UKIP -14.240 -
Don't be ridiculous! Diane Abbott & Long Bailey are PB tips for next Lab leaderfoxinsoxuk said:0 -
I just know that when I attempt a Welsh accent it invariably ends up closer to an Indian one and vice versaBenedictWhite said:
There's a story behind that. I have heard that some Welsh people have been offended because they thought the Indians speaking in a Welsh accent were taking the piss.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She has a lovely Indian accentwelshowl said:
Jesus. Pity those of us that live in Wales and might be affected by her loony ramblings.IanB2 said:
I like Leanne, and would happily listen to her whatever she is talking about.Mortimer said:
Ha. Better than me - laid at 1.02, very good value.Pulpstar said:I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.
What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?
Changing topic - Davis is enjoying QT. Wood talking balls about Welsh interests...0 -
But she needs more Con Peers in the Lords - in particular to get the Boundary changes through in Oct 2018.RobD said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/theresa-may-breaks-away-cameron-cronyism-mps-standing-told-will/
She's saving the political capital to give our very own JohnO the first hereditary dukedom in decades.
This was the ideal opportunity to bolster numbers.
And the total size of the Lords has been edging downwards - now down to 801 - approx 35 below peak.0 -
I suspect it'll be in the manifesto. That, and LD attrition (assuming she tops up the Con numbers from time to time).MikeL said:
But she needs more Con Peers in the Lords - in particular to get the Boundary changes through in Oct 2018.RobD said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/theresa-may-breaks-away-cameron-cronyism-mps-standing-told-will/
She's saving the political capital to give our very own JohnO the first hereditary dukedom in decades.
This was the ideal opportunity to bolster numbers.
And the total size of the Lords has been edging downwards - now down to 801 - approx 35 below peak.0 -
There has always been a strong movement in Labour for PR (see Robin Cook etc in the past).IanB2 said:
Except both Thornberry and whoever is now the !abour spokesman on LBC are arguing strongly for the current system. If they are about to change their people aren't on message (as usual).Beverley_C said:Another old chestnut gets resurrected. Politicians love FPTP when they are winning. When they are getting hammered then suddenly it is time for PR
Maybe TSE could do us an AV thread?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/proportional-representation-electoral-reform-pr-labour-manifesto-jeremy-corbyn-a7715786.html
It's no wonder the electorate are disengaged when so many seats are safe. There really is no point voting in most of them. Not good for democracy.
The 21st century needs an overhaul. FPTP is not fit for purpose with multiple parties.
Everyone knows it.0 -
oh please let it be trueScott_P said:@britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.
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I would not be surprised if the abolition of the HOL and a new style second chamber is in the manifestoMikeL said:
But she needs more Con Peers in the Lords - in particular to get the Boundary changes through in Oct 2018.RobD said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/theresa-may-breaks-away-cameron-cronyism-mps-standing-told-will/
She's saving the political capital to give our very own JohnO the first hereditary dukedom in decades.
This was the ideal opportunity to bolster numbers.
And the total size of the Lords has been edging downwards - now down to 801 - approx 35 below peak.0 -
Still waiting for any England seats to declare.
BBC results website laughably crap, if I do say so myself.0 -
To be fair, in a world where satire is dead, it is possible. No one ever made money betting on the sensible choice for Labour Leader!isam said:
Don't be ridiculous! Diane Abbott & Long Bailey are PB tips for next Lab leaderfoxinsoxuk said:0 -
I expect no less from Corbyn's Labour. It is why they are unelectable as far as I am concernedIanB2 said:
Except both Thornberry and whoever is now the !abour spokesman on LBC are arguing strongly for the current system. If they are about to change their people aren't on message (as usual).Beverley_C said:Another old chestnut gets resurrected. Politicians love FPTP when they are winning. When they are getting hammered then suddenly it is time for PR
Maybe TSE could do us an AV thread?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/proportional-representation-electoral-reform-pr-labour-manifesto-jeremy-corbyn-a7715786.html0 -
I agree - but Labour has also always had a strong rearguard opposing any change. The likes of John Reid were briefing the press 'over their dead body' regarding AV in 2010 at the very same time that Gordon Brown was desperately trying to secure a deal.Monty said:
There has always been a strong movement in Labour for PR (see Robin Cook etc in the past).IanB2 said:
Except both Thornberry and whoever is now the !abour spokesman on LBC are arguing strongly for the current system. If they are about to change their people aren't on message (as usual).Beverley_C said:Another old chestnut gets resurrected. Politicians love FPTP when they are winning. When they are getting hammered then suddenly it is time for PR
Maybe TSE could do us an AV thread?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/proportional-representation-electoral-reform-pr-labour-manifesto-jeremy-corbyn-a7715786.html
It's no wonder the electorate are disengaged when so many seats are safe. There really is no point voting in most of them. Not good for democracy.
The 21st century needs an overhaul. FPTP is not fit for purpose with multiple parties.
Everyone knows it.0 -
Con hold Central Beds Shefford by election0
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You don't. You end up with a Welsh Indian accent as opposed to a Welsh accent.MTimT said:
I just know that when I attempt a Welsh accent it invariably ends up closer to an Indian one and vice versaBenedictWhite said:
There's a story behind that. I have heard that some Welsh people have been offended because they thought the Indians speaking in a Welsh accent were taking the piss.Sunil_Prasannan said:
She has a lovely Indian accentwelshowl said:
Jesus. Pity those of us that live in Wales and might be affected by her loony ramblings.IanB2 said:
I like Leanne, and would happily listen to her whatever she is talking about.Mortimer said:
Ha. Better than me - laid at 1.02, very good value.Pulpstar said:I can't believe I laid Andy Burnham at 1.01.
What was the backer thinking ? Were they thinking ?
Changing topic - Davis is enjoying QT. Wood talking balls about Welsh interests...
Some of the early teachers of English in India were Welsh missionaries who obviously also passed on the accent. However not all Indians speak with that accent.0 -
Swansea East is the most leave constituency in Wales.Floater said:
oh please let it be trueScott_P said:@britainelects: Swansea Liberal Democrats are talking of a collapse in the Labour vote.
East, not west.0 -
Another Labour loss to IND In Wrexham0
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Honestly, at this point, after Corbyn, ferchrissakes, what makes any of us think that they aren't candidates for Labour leader? Thornberry too.foxinsoxuk said:
To be fair, in a world where satire is dead, it is possible. No one ever made money betting on the sensible choice for Labour Leader!isam said:
Don't be ridiculous! Diane Abbott & Long Bailey are PB tips for next Lab leaderfoxinsoxuk said:
It's precisely the problem Labour have if - after some miracle - Corbyn stands down tonight, as some of you have suggested.
Nobody believes the Labour Party is capable of making a sensible choice any more. They think even if Corbyn stands down, it's still the party of Dianne Abbott the maths whizz and McDonnell the Mao enthusiast.
I do think the 33/1 on Stephen Kinnock that's available is a half decent bet though.0 -
Lbc is rather good. Simon Hughes skewering labour man with very polite questions...0
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And another Labour hold in Flint.0
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Talk like that will be giving Justin kill'em all the horn...All those dead politicians!MikeL said:
But she needs more Con Peers in the Lords - in particular to get the Boundary changes through in Oct 2018.RobD said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/theresa-may-breaks-away-cameron-cronyism-mps-standing-told-will/
She's saving the political capital to give our very own JohnO the first hereditary dukedom in decades.
This was the ideal opportunity to bolster numbers.
And the total size of the Lords has been edging downwards - now down to 801 - approx 35 below peak.0 -
Two seats in from Warwickshire. 1 CON, 1 LAB.
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Tory gain from Lab in Warwickshire0
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Unbelievably every Joe public caller is on voting systems....... Is this pb radio?0
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Ceredigion council result will be one ward reSult short as candidate died last week and election postponed until next month0
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Those were mad tips though. We know labour has a woman problem....foxinsoxuk said:
To be fair, in a world where satire is dead, it is possible. No one ever made money betting on the sensible choice for Labour Leader!isam said:
Don't be ridiculous! Diane Abbott & Long Bailey are PB tips for next Lab leaderfoxinsoxuk said:
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I'd be amazed if it were. There will be no time for constitutional tinkering in the next parliament. Maybe a commitment to set up a Royal Commission on the future of the constitution/parliament, but even that I think is unlikely.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not be surprised if the abolition of the HOL and a new style second chamber is in the manifestoMikeL said:
But she needs more Con Peers in the Lords - in particular to get the Boundary changes through in Oct 2018.RobD said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/theresa-may-breaks-away-cameron-cronyism-mps-standing-told-will/
She's saving the political capital to give our very own JohnO the first hereditary dukedom in decades.
This was the ideal opportunity to bolster numbers.
And the total size of the Lords has been edging downwards - now down to 801 - approx 35 below peak.0 -
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OK, I put it down as a Con gain. The first of the night!another_richard said:0 -
Prof Roger Scully @roger_scully 1m1 minute ago
Two Labour losses in Wrexham, two holds in Flintshire, so far.
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notional labouranother_richard said:0 -
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Con hold Central Beds Biggleswade North0
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I thought the election used to be stopped but now it carries on (and is re-held if the dead person wins), but I might be having an Abbot moment and it's the other way around?marke09 said:0 -
LibDem gain in Monmouthshire from Labour0
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Stockingford
2017 election result
Caroline Suzanne PHILLIPS - elected
Labour (952 votes)
Other Candidates
Jamie CUMMINGS
Conservative (776 votes)
Maggie MORRISSEY
Green (162 votes)
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QT is in Norwich on 18th May.....I've already booked tickets for Brad Mehdlau.....Better things to do....0
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No, but it looks like Britain Elects is working from them. The old council was Tory 26, Lab 22 LD 9RobD said:
LibDem gain in Monmouth from Lab!0 -
tyson said:
QT is in Norwich on 18th May.....I've already booked tickets for Brad Mehdlau.....Better things to do....
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21.73%+ lead (over PC) gone - just like Hillary's firewall.TudorRose said:LibDem gain in Monmouthshire from Labour
That was Labour's 120th safest ward in Wales0 -
Warwickshire now Con 1 Lab 30
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I am finding the election so exciting that I am falling asleep.
Good night all0 -
Stephen BushVerified account @stephenkb 5m5 minutes ago
Conservatives GAIN a seat from Labour in Warwickshire: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/05/new-statesman-2017-local-elections-liveblog …
2 replies 4 retweets 2 likes
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Just seen this on Twitter:
"Labour won with 72% of the vote in 2012:
Independent GAIN Gwersllyt North (Wrexham) from Labour"
If that is correct to go from 72% of the vote to losing the seat is exceptional. Something strange there, perhaps some very local factors.0 -
LD Hold Cotswold: Cirencester Beeches.0
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Lab gain in Monmouthshire
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Hes a memberof UKIP but now running as Independent has told BBC CYmru he feels as if hes lost his seat in Aberporth Ceredigion0
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Bedworth West on Warwickshire - CON. Gain or hold?0
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Mark WallaceVerified account @wallaceme 3m3 minutes ago
Mark Wallace Retweeted David Short
Labour vote down from 23% in 2015 to 14% in this Central Bedfordshire by-election. cc @britainelects0 -
Newsnight projecting 300-400 Labour losses (say LBC) total UK0
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Labour had a 38% majority in Bedworth West in 2013 so even with boundary changes I think we can assume that's a Conservative gain on a big swing.RobD said:Bedworth West on Warwickshire - CON. Gain or hold?
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Anyone know which councils are counting a bit tonight, but declaring late tomorrow? I should probably be keeping an eye on those counts too.0
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http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/all_2017_by_time.phpRobD said:Anyone know which councils are counting a bit tonight, but declaring late tomorrow? I should probably be keeping an eye on those counts too.
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Now a Tory gain in Monmouth from the LibDems0
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As always, PB is ahead of the BBC. We've got 10 seats in our database, but they've only got 8.0
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Also the leaders debate on ITV, minus two shy people, but more importantly Leicester playing Spurs at home.tyson said:QT is in Norwich on 18th May.....I've already booked tickets for Brad Mehdlau.....Better things to do....
"Champions of England - you'll never sing that" ;-)0 -
Indeed. Especially in rural areas where people know the candidates very well. I know socially all 4 of the candidates in my ward. It had a big effect on how I voted!kle4 said:0 -
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Britain Elects @britainelects 49s50 seconds ago
Conservative GAIN Larkfield (Monmouthshire) from Liberal Democrat.
Monmouthshire merry-go-round0 -
Yeah, those are the declaration times for the full council.IanB2 said:
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/all_2017_by_time.phpRobD said:Anyone know which councils are counting a bit tonight, but declaring late tomorrow? I should probably be keeping an eye on those counts too.
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Third Labour loss in Wrexham0
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Oh dear poor Labour, never mindmarke09 said:Stephen BushVerified account @stephenkb 5m5 minutes ago
Conservatives GAIN a seat from Labour in Warwickshire: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/05/new-statesman-2017-local-elections-liveblog …
2 replies 4 retweets 2 likes
23:41: Andrew Forbes is asking what it's looking like in Scotland.
I'm hearing a lot but not much I can double source place to place. But the story is what you'd expect: SNP and Tories doing much better, Labour collapsing, Liberal Democrats stagnating. For those of you not glued to the warp and weft of Scottish local government, don't forget that these councils were last contested in 2012, back when Labour were still a thing in Scotland. So expect it to be brutal.0