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wondering if my first will stand this time or disappear once again into the alternative vanilla universe ...

MTimT said:

wondering if my first will stand this time or disappear once again into the alternative vanilla universe ...

Where you will find all my wittiest comments.

If there is any credence in the theory that UKIP are finished and their former supporters are mostly turning blue, then Maxton should not be too close to call. It should be a clear Tory gain.

Edit: and thank you, Harry, as ever. Good luck at the count.

Scott_P said:

@SunPolitics: Lifelong Labour supporter and Apprentice star Michelle Dewberry standing for Parliament in Hull – because Jeremy C… https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3483623/3483623/

The arrogance that it’s a safe Labour seat astounds me. I want to challenge this idea of ‘tribal voting’

So many do. But then they tick the safe box again and again.

the Conservatives do not have the “best interests of the seat in their hearts”.

“The Tories promise us Brexit which is great. But many people here will struggle with the brand and their other policies.

Interesting the struggle with the brand is listed first.

Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

Well, at least UKIP put up a candidate to defend the seat in Dover, which seems rare these days.

I cannot imagine why Harry didn't put in the thankless effort of putting up details of all by-elections being held! Barely over a hundred, pah.

Ishmael_Z said:

"Maidenblower" is an excellent name.

Pick of the crop of this selection, certainly.

kle4 said:

Ishmael_Z said:

"Maidenblower" is an excellent name.

Pick of the crop of this selection, certainly.

Before you two get carried away, it should in fact be "Maidenbower".

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

I think she has a chance.

When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.

Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy

RobD said:

philiph said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

I think she has a chance.

When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.

Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy

He was a member of the now defunct New Labour (War Criminal) Party.

Shortened to "the spurs" by arsenal supporting moamentumers.

Came in from an 11-hour doorstep stint in marginal Beeston South (Nottinghamshire). It's an interesting test case of how far a ground game makes a difference. In principle it ought to be an easy Tory gain on current polling - Labour held it by 3.6% in 2013, and altough there have been boundary changes which should help a bit, I doubt if the real margin going into the election was more than 7%. It's a reasonably prosperous typically C1 WWC ward, good swing vote territory. And there's a 15% UKIP vote for the Tories to squeeze.

But Labour pulled in activists from all over the place - there were easily 30 people knocking up for much of the day, more than that division gets in a General Election. I recognised a full spectrum of them too, Momentum organisers mingling cheerfully with longstanding Blairites. We knocked up three times. Quite a few voters had forgotten about it, because of all the GE coverage.

Will that be enough? Dunno. Overall turnout is said to be "about average" (30-35%), and virtually all our supposed promises said they had voted or would vote for us, so on the face of it we ought to be getting differential turnout. But will we? We'll know tomorrow.

NickPalmer said:

Came in from an 11-hour doorstep stint in marginal Beeston South (Nottinghamshire).

Is that a typical length of a stint? Seems a lot to ask even of fervent supporters.

kle4 said:

Well, at least UKIP put up a candidate to defend the seat in Dover, which seems rare these days.

I cannot imagine why Harry didn't put in the thankless effort of putting up details of all by-elections being held! Barely over a hundred, pah.

If you want a slightly more in depth preview of all the by-elections you could try this:

http://election-data.co.uk/local-elections-preview-part-i

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

philiph said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

I think she has a chance.

When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.

Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy

He was a member of the now defunct New Labour (War Criminal) Party.

Shortened to "the spurs" by arsenal supporting moamentumers.

I wan to see TSEs old bar chart showing number of years since a majority at a GE for 1) The Tories, 2) Old Labour, 3) New Labour (War Criminal).

I don't. My screen isn't big enough to get it all on.

Is there an exit poll in 15 minutes?

Ave_it said:

Is there an exit poll in 15 minutes?

Two years ago - CON MOST SEATS - 319

AVE IT!

Are the West Midlands votes being counted by machine or by hand?

*dons additional layer of tin foil*

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

I think she has a chance.

If not for my potential winnings I'd be all in favour. Well, maybe the Tories can win the East seat at least.

Mortimer said:

Ave_it said:

Is there an exit poll in 15 minutes?

Two years ago - CON MOST SEATS - 319

AVE IT!

https://youtu.be/9EYUkV-SHFw?t=4m45s

NickPalmer said:

Came in from an 11-hour doorstep stint in marginal Beeston South (Nottinghamshire). It's an interesting test case of how far a ground game makes a difference. In principle it ought to be an easy Tory gain on current polling - Labour held it by 3.6% in 2013, and altough there have been boundary changes which should help a bit, I doubt if the real margin going into the election was more than 7%. It's a reasonably prosperous typically C1 WWC ward, good swing vote territory. And there's a 15% UKIP vote for the Tories to squeeze.

But Labour pulled in activists from all over the place - there were easily 30 people knocking up for much of the day, more than that division gets in a General Election. I recognised a full spectrum of them too, Momentum organisers mingling cheerfully with longstanding Blairites. We knocked up three times. Quite a few voters had forgotten about it, because of all the GE coverage.

Will that be enough? Dunno. Overall turnout is said to be "about average" (30-35%), and virtually all our supposed promises said they had voted or would vote for us, so on the face of it we ought to be getting differential turnout. But will we? We'll know tomorrow.

How many activists does Labour have in Nottinghamshire if you don't mind me asking ?

FrancisUrquhart said:

So is there any "action" of interest this evening? Or is it all tomorrow / tomorrow evening?

Well Man U are winning 1-0. Apart from that, not much.

I could be El Presidente in 9 mins xD

NickPalmer said:

Came in from an 11-hour doorstep stint in marginal Beeston South (Nottinghamshire). It's an interesting test case of how far a ground game makes a difference. In principle it ought to be an easy Tory gain on current polling - Labour held it by 3.6% in 2013, and altough there have been boundary changes which should help a bit, I doubt if the real margin going into the election was more than 7%. It's a reasonably prosperous typically C1 WWC ward, good swing vote territory. And there's a 15% UKIP vote for the Tories to squeeze.

But Labour pulled in activists from all over the place - there were easily 30 people knocking up for much of the day, more than that division gets in a General Election. I recognised a full spectrum of them too, Momentum organisers mingling cheerfully with longstanding Blairites. We knocked up three times. Quite a few voters had forgotten about it, because of all the GE coverage.

Will that be enough? Dunno. Overall turnout is said to be "about average" (30-35%), and virtually all our supposed promises said they had voted or would vote for us, so on the face of it we ought to be getting differential turnout. But will we? We'll know tomorrow.

I'm in Beeston/Chilwell and haven't received as much as a leaflet so far, you must have gone all around me at this point heh.

It is pretty amusing that 96 of the 563 Lab seats being defended tonight are in the same council, Durham. They love them some Labour up there, clearly.

Floater said:

philiph said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

I think she has a chance.

When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.

Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy

He was a tory I believe

You have a point, I recollect the word scum having traction at the time.

4 minutes to vote !

Saw my first petrol price drop today and it looks like there might be more to come over the next few weeks:

' The oil price has fallen to a five-month low as investor concerns re-surface about a worldwide glut.

Brent crude dropped by more than $2 on Thursday to below $49 a barrel, hitting its lowest level since oil cartel Opec struck a landmark deal to cut output on 30 November. '

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39812113

I voted at 9.15am. I was the only one in the polling station bar the officials.

Pencils down, stop voting.

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

philiph said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

I think she has a chance.

When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.

Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy

He was a member of the now defunct New Labour (War Criminal) Party.

Shortened to "the spurs" by arsenal supporting moamentumers.

I wan to see TSEs old bar chart showing number of years since a majority at a GE for 1) The Tories, 2) Old Labour, 3) New Labour (War Criminal).

Here you go.

OUT said:

Pencils down, stop voting.

What about if I have started, can I finish?

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

philiph said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.

I think she has a chance.

When was the last time an independent won a seat at a GE? The doctor in the south west springs to mind.

Tony Blair in Sedgefield? I hear he isn't labour so assume he was an indy

He was a member of the now defunct New Labour (War Criminal) Party.

Shortened to "the spurs" by arsenal supporting moamentumers.

I wan to see TSEs old bar chart showing number of years since a majority at a GE for 1) The Tories, 2) Old Labour, 3) New Labour (War Criminal).

Here you go.

You are too good to me

Hungary, Tarki poll:

Fidesz/KDNP-EPP: 51% ↓
Jobbik-NI: 17% ↓
MSZP-S&D: 15%
DK-S&D: 8% ↑
LMP-GREEN: 4%
M-*: 2% ↑
Együtt-S&D: 1% ↓

There's a party out there with a bigger lead than May!

FrancisUrquhart said:

OUT said:

Pencils down, stop voting.

What about if I have started, can I finish?

Labour is the WRONG answer.

FrancisUrquhart said:

OUT said:

Pencils down, stop voting.

What about if I have started, can I finish?

I'm the returning officer not Magnus Magnusson.

OUT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

OUT said:

Pencils down, stop voting.

What about if I have started, can I finish?

I'm the returning officer not Magnus Magnusson.

Well we know that as the latter is deceased.

NickPalmer said:

HaroldO said:

I'm in Beeston/Chilwell and haven't received as much as a leaflet so far, you must have gone all around me at this point heh.

Different division, I think? If you're in Chilwell, that's in Toton, Chilwell & Attenborough, which is likely to be one of the safest Tory divisions - so you probably won't have seen a huge amount of activity from anyone. The battlegrounds fo us were Beeston Central&Rylands (not South as I said earlier - old name), Bramcote&Beeston North and Stapleford&Broxtowe Central.

I'm right next to the Inham road tram stop, which isn't far from Toton so that explains that. I thought I was now in either a safe ward or no one cared enough to leaflet, it seems it's the former.

AndyJS said:

These are the seats Labour are defending tonight, up to majorities of 25%:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=0

Excludes areas affected by boundary changes such as Nottinghamshire.

Much appreciated as ever.

Oddly enough I think they have a chance defending the smallest unitary defence, better than might be thought at least for a 0.09% majority (1 vote) - potential split Tory vote there.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

LBC election night - IS ON

Will Diane Abbott be making an appearance?

This is perhaps the 20th time its been asked but are the BBC or Sky or someone running rolling results coverage on TV or radio for the locals?

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

another_richard said:

Weren't we told that that invoking A50 would cause an immediate recession ?

' Activity in the UK's service sector accelerated in April, with new work growing at its fastest pace this year, according to a closely-watched survey.

Markit said the strong performance from the dominant sector, together with similarly upbeat surveys for construction and manufacturing, suggests the economy is currently growing at twice the pace than that seen in the first quarter of the year.

"The three surveys collectively point to GDP growing at a rate of 0.6% at the start of the second quarter," said IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson. '

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39802976

I am hoping for 0.6 in Q2 and a revision to 0.4 in Q1 to put me ahead of the game in my bet with Robert.

0.6% growth in Q2 should give 2.1% growth over the previous 12 months.

Which would be rather better than the 1.7% growth in the 12 months before the Referendum:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyr/pgdp

What is good to see is that the growth is better balanced and not house price and consumer borrowing based.

I don't think that there is any doubt that our manufacturing in particular is benefiting from a healthier EZ which is a bit ironic, I suppose. My bet is 1.6 or better for the year and I would like to lock in as much as possible early doors since the position in the US in particular remains unclear.

On the positive side AEP in the Telegraph was forecasting doom today which offsets the encouragement that Robert got when the World Bank revised its figures in my favour!

Y0kel said:

This is perhaps the 20th time its been asked but are the BBC or Sky or someone running rolling results coverage on TV or radio for the locals?

Radio4 ISTR...

Has Corbyn resigned yet?

Prediction: turnout is going to be dire in Scotland and that will badly affect the SNP.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

LBC election night - IS ON

Is that a London program ?

When there's no London elections ?

Alistair said:

Off topic: for the last few years I have been following the quixotic Twitter account @RealTimeWWII which tweets events from WW2 time delayed by 72 years.

Sounds like the Royal Mail in my street,

(Only partly said for comic effect)

Alistair said:

Prediction: turnout is going great to be sure in Scotland and that will badly affect the SNP.

Someone earlier said poorer turnout tends to hurt the SNP the most.

Scott_P said:

@rosschawkins: Like a liveblog. But with talking:

Election results on @BBCRadio4 & @bbc5live from 1 with @naughtiej & @carolynquinncq - and me

It'll never catch on...

Y0kel said:

This is perhaps the 20th time its been asked but are the BBC or Sky or someone running rolling results coverage on TV or radio for the locals?

When I was in the car earlier I thought I heard James. Naughtie. Say he was on from 1,00am

surbiton said:

Car sales fall 19.8% in April compared to April last year.

because of huge rise last month due to punters beating the road tax changes

philiph said:

Y0kel said:

This is perhaps the 20th time its been asked but are the BBC or Sky or someone running rolling results coverage on TV or radio for the locals?

When I was in the car earlier I thought I heard James. Naughtie. Say he was on from 1,00am

Radio4, obviously