politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest French polls not quite as good for Macron as they were
Comments
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Nope, we have left the EU for ever, we may return to EFTA which we were in in the first place and should in retrospect never have left for the EEC and we may even rejoin the single market but we will never ever rejoin the EU now which will become ever more focused on the Eurozonewilliamglenn said:
The Brexiteering public has been put on a war footing in response to all this rhetoric around the negotiations.Disraeli said:
William, I've got to break this to you mate, but even if the UK wanted to remain in the EU we couldn't.williamglenn said:
It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The EU has had enough of us.
We voted OUT once, and we could do it again. What with all our opt-outs, failure to join the Euro and Schengen, and generally being the "awkward squad" and acting as a break on "ever close union"...they are fed up with us.
THEY DON'T WANT US ANYMORE.
Either cry or cheer, according to your preference.
Wars, even wars of words, end with victory or defeat, and it is the illusions of Brexit that will be defeated. Once the reality of that humiliation has sunk in, we will accept the consequences with quiet dignity and resolve and resume our rightful place at the heart of Europe.0 -
Couldn't see that mentioned here:MarkSenior said:Oh Dear
Crathes Public Hall is a registered charity whose constitution forbids its use for political meetings . Apparently it was booked today for a children's party in the name of a certain Mr Burnett ,
http://www.crathes.com/hall-terms.htm0 -
Labour party pledges to outlaw all zero-hours contracts
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/election-labour-mcdonnell-corbyn-zero-hours-economy
But lots of people actually like them...and it will totally screw so many businesses if they outlaw all ZHC, no ifs, no buts. ZHC is basically just agency work under another name, which has been about for donkeys years. And also enables businesses to trial workers before giving them full time roles.
As long as individuals on ZHC are free to take their labour where ever they want, I see no problem.
No unpaid internships, a lot of Labour MPs and the Guardian are going to be out of pocket a few quid.0 -
Jesus.H.Christ. Delusional.williamglenn said:
The Brexiteering public has been put on a war footing in response to all this rhetoric around the negotiations.Disraeli said:
William, I've got to break this to you mate, but even if the UK wanted to remain in the EU we couldn't.williamglenn said:
It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The EU has had enough of us.
We voted OUT once, and we could do it again. What with all our opt-outs, failure to join the Euro and Schengen, and generally being the "awkward squad" and acting as a break on "ever close union"...they are fed up with us.
THEY DON'T WANT US ANYMORE.
Either cry or cheer, according to your preference.
Wars, even wars of words, end with victory or defeat, and it is the illusions of Brexit that will be defeated. Once the reality of that humiliation has sunk in, we will accept the consequences with quiet dignity and resolve and resume our rightful place at the heart of Europe.
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Bottom line is, we just don't know what the Hell is going on with the polls, do we?dixiedean said:snip
OTOH, may be rogue polls.
* The Lib Dems' attempt to win the Remain vote over may be failing, as voters conclude they're too weak to do anything useful about the situation
* The tribal Labour vote may be even more sticky than we previously thought
* The polls may be wrong, by as much or more than they were the last time; the supplementary questions give no suggestion that this race has any capacity to be competitive, quite the reverse, and at least in the case of Opinium we know they've been fiddling about with their methodology as well
* As I suggested earlier, the Labour poll bounce may not be uniform and they could be shoring up their position in Remain-leaning/metropolitan areas (along with securing a lot of useless extra votes from grumpy Remainers in many well-to-do Tory seats in Southern England,) whilst continuing to be in difficulty in Leave-leaning/provincial areas
Labour has been in more or less continuous decline in the polls for the last year, but the line isn't perfectly flat. It wobbles about a little, as you might expect. The latest little cluster of surveys might constitute a blip. The only way we're going to know, one way or another, is when we have the result in a little less than six weeks' time.
FWIW I still don't believe that Labour is going to end this campaign doing as well or better than Ed Miliband or Gordon Brown did. If the polls are indicating such a thing come the final figures before the big day, then I would (if forced to venture an opinion) guess that the polls are getting it wrong again.0 -
More likely that Brits abroad and EU nationals continue to live on the same terms as they settled. That is, under those laid out in the Treaty.welshowl said:
That is extra judiciality and utterly unacceptable. We walk.Casino_Royale said:
It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.
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As we have been told ever since Philip II.williamglenn said:
The Brexiteering public has been put on a war footing in response to all this rhetoric around the negotiations.Disraeli said:
William, I've got to break this to you mate, but even if the UK wanted to remain in the EU we couldn't.williamglenn said:
It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The EU has had enough of us.
We voted OUT once, and we could do it again. What with all our opt-outs, failure to join the Euro and Schengen, and generally being the "awkward squad" and acting as a break on "ever close union"...they are fed up with us.
THEY DON'T WANT US ANYMORE.
Either cry or cheer, according to your preference.
Wars, even wars of words, end with victory or defeat, and it is the illusions of Brexit that will be defeated. Once the reality of that humiliation has sunk in, we will accept the consequences with quiet dignity and resolve and resume our rightful place at the heart of Europe.
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Delusion worthy of the Japanese fighters abandoned in jungles for years after WW2 had ended...williamglenn said:
The Brexiteering public has been put on a war footing in response to all this rhetoric around the negotiations.Disraeli said:
William, I've got to break this to you mate, but even if the UK wanted to remain in the EU we couldn't.williamglenn said:
It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The EU has had enough of us.
We voted OUT once, and we could do it again. What with all our opt-outs, failure to join the Euro and Schengen, and generally being the "awkward squad" and acting as a break on "ever close union"...they are fed up with us.
THEY DON'T WANT US ANYMORE.
Either cry or cheer, according to your preference.
Wars, even wars of words, end with victory or defeat, and it is the illusions of Brexit that will be defeated. Once the reality of that humiliation has sunk in, we will accept the consequences with quiet dignity and resolve and resume our rightful place at the heart of Europe.0 -
Except Ed Miliband polled 35% but got 30% which suggests Corbyn is actually on 25% especially as Opinium has not gone as far as yougov and ICM in changing its methodologySouthamObserver said:I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
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It was at one time.HYUFD said:
Yes, it has a strong chance of going ToryBig_G_NorthWales said:
It is where my Scottish family live - good fisher folkHYUFD said:
Yes, it is the most pro Leave seat in ScotlandCarlottaVance said:
May's Press & Journal comments on the Common Fisheries Policy won't have made his life easier.....HYUFD said:
Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus RobertsonAlistair said:
Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?TheScreamingEagles said:
Some of us have real money staked on this election.welshowl said:
Top trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.
Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
My wonderful late Father in law and one of Scotlands most successful fishermen voted labour all his life but he was great friends with Sir Bill Duthie his conservative mp who persuaded him to attend the Palace and receive his medal for services to the fishing industry from the King. He really did not want it but he also did not want to insult the King. Says everything about him really0 -
As opposed to the current offerings from Mrs May...Mortimer said:
40-50 Tory Majority and Jezza stays would be brilliant result for the Tories...FrancisUrquhart said:
Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....CarlottaVance said:Glen O'Hara:
Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.
Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.
Handshakes all round.
My main problem with the Posh Boy's project is that it pretty much had a ceiling of 10-15 majority...
No vision amongst - but of course they hadn't experienced a good grammar school education...
A bodged grammar school announcement (when schools are under and unfairly funded in many counties already)
A cowardly u-turn on a sensible tax proposal (making her Chancellor look a tit to boot).
A rehash of a (dumb) Miliband energy policy.
Some vague waffle that Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be Red, White and Blue....
Stunning. Can't understand how the political titan that is Corbyn is catching her hand over fist......
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Including the assumption that Remain would win easily.Casino_Royale said:
There is plenty of delusion on the EU side.williamglenn said:Charles Grant @CER_Grant
German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y
https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/8580899182701977600 -
We aren't the ones with the budget surplus, receiving net contributions, exporting people or relying on the goodwill of our neighbour to supply a modern armed force and excellence with defence and security.williamglenn said:Charles Grant @CER_Grant
German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y
https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/858089918270197760
When do you suppose they will wake up?
We have two years to organise our plan to phase them out.0 -
Broadly yes. Subject to the negotiation.SouthamObserver said:
More likely that Brits abroad and EU nationals continue to live on the same terms as they settled. That is, under those laid out in the Treaty.welshowl said:
That is extra judiciality and utterly unacceptable. We walk.Casino_Royale said:
It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.0 -
Turkey sacks 4,000 more officials in coup-bid crackdown
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39759050
Free and Fair...0 -
I think we could do with seeing some proper regional polling. Last time that seemed to be pretty good.0
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Impressed you could link the T&Cs. However if the booker did book a children's party and actually held a political event that does clearly break the terms - as well as being generally dishonest.RobD said:
Couldn't see that mentioned here:MarkSenior said:Oh Dear
Crathes Public Hall is a registered charity whose constitution forbids its use for political meetings . Apparently it was booked today for a children's party in the name of a certain Mr Burnett ,
http://www.crathes.com/hall-terms.htm0 -
@Keiranpedley
Polls seem to be 'tightening' this weekend. Though all have double digit Tory leads. Suspect average back down to 15
But let's call a spade a spade. Unless Corbyn closes gap w/May on best PM/best to neg Brexit we are only debating size of Con majority0 -
As I said, I'd be very surprised if Labour got close to its 2015 result.HYUFD said:
Except Ed Miliband polled 35% but got 30% which suggests Corbyn is actually on 25% especially as Opinium has not gone as far as yougov and ICM in changing its methodologySouthamObserver said:I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
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Just put £15 on Palace to be relegated. 40-1. Insurance, pays for next season's season ticket if the worst happens0
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The issues are; i) ECJ oversight and ii) Subsequent amendment of EU rules.SouthamObserver said:
More likely that Brits abroad and EU nationals continue to live on the same terms as they settled. That is, under those laid out in the Treaty.welshowl said:
That is extra judiciality and utterly unacceptable. We walk.Casino_Royale said:
It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.0 -
McDonalds are to ban them and out of a workforce of 116,000 - 80 % refused saying they suited themFrancisUrquhart said:Labour party pledges to outlaw all zero-hours contracts
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/election-labour-mcdonnell-corbyn-zero-hours-economy
But lots of people actually like them...and it will totally screw so many businesses if they outlaw all ZHC, no ifs, no buts. ZHC is basically just agency work under another name, which has been about for donkeys years. And also enables businesses to trial workers before giving them full time roles.
As long as individuals on ZHC are free to take their labour where ever they want, I see no problem.
No unpaid internships, a lot of Labour MPs and the Guardian are going to be out of pocket a few quid.0 -
I thing the phrase is "Strong and stable government, not a coalition of chaos".FrancisUrquhart said:Turkey sacks 4,000 more officials in coup-bid crackdown
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39759050
Free and Fair...0 -
But that may well give EU nationals more rights than British citizens (and Brits abroad more rights than the citizens of the relevant country).welshowl said:
Broadly yes. Subject to the negotiation.SouthamObserver said:
More likely that Brits abroad and EU nationals continue to live on the same terms as they settled. That is, under those laid out in the Treaty.welshowl said:
That is extra judiciality and utterly unacceptable. We walk.Casino_Royale said:
It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.
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You are even more deluded than I thought you were!williamglenn said:
The Brexiteering public has been put on a war footing in response to all this rhetoric around the negotiations.Disraeli said:
William, I've got to break this to you mate, but even if the UK wanted to remain in the EU we couldn't.williamglenn said:
It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The EU has had enough of us.
We voted OUT once, and we could do it again. What with all our opt-outs, failure to join the Euro and Schengen, and generally being the "awkward squad" and acting as a break on "ever close union"...they are fed up with us.
THEY DON'T WANT US ANYMORE.
Either cry or cheer, according to your preference.
Wars, even wars of words, end with victory or defeat, and it is the illusions of Brexit that will be defeated. Once the reality of that humiliation has sunk in, we will accept the consequences with quiet dignity and resolve and resume our rightful place at the heart of Europe.
We have never, ever been at the heart of Europe. Oh! We have often said that we wanted to be, but the heart of Europe has always been the Franco-German "motor".
It's over, William. Cry your tears and move on. You know deep down that it's for the best.0 -
The UK government is not going to put the security of British citizens more at risk as a Brexit negotiation tool.chestnut said:
We aren't the ones with the budget surplus, receiving net contributions, exporting people or relying on the goodwill of our neighbour to supply a modern armed force and excellence with defence and security.williamglenn said:Charles Grant @CER_Grant
German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y
https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/858089918270197760
When do you suppose they will wake up?
We have two years to organise our plan to phase them out.
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I suspect that without a LibDem recovery Labour's floor is about 25%.SouthamObserver said:I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
On the other hand Labour's ceiling might be no higher than 33%.
I'd say Labour's problem is that its voting blocks are smaller than the Conservative voting blocks:
Public sector vs Private sector
Non-white vs White
Young vs Old
City vs Non-city
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He isn't even on tonight's polls Corbyn trails May by more than Hague trailed Blair or Kinnock trailed Thatchermidwinter said:
As opposed to the current offerings from Mrs May...Mortimer said:
40-50 Tory Majority and Jezza stays would be brilliant result for the Tories...FrancisUrquhart said:
Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....CarlottaVance said:Glen O'Hara:
Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.
Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.
Handshakes all round.
My main problem with the Posh Boy's project is that it pretty much had a ceiling of 10-15 majority...
No vision amongst - but of course they hadn't experienced a good grammar school education...
A bodged grammar school announcement (when schools are under and unfairly funded in many counties already)
A cowardly u-turn on a sensible tax proposal (making her Chancellor look a tit to boot).
A rehash of a (dumb) Miliband energy policy.
Some vague waffle that Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be Red, White and Blue....
Stunning. Can't understand how the political titan that is Corbyn is catching her hand over fist......0 -
Sounds a great characterBig_G_NorthWales said:
It was at one time.HYUFD said:
Yes, it has a strong chance of going ToryBig_G_NorthWales said:
It is where my Scottish family live - good fisher folkHYUFD said:
Yes, it is the most pro Leave seat in ScotlandCarlottaVance said:
May's Press & Journal comments on the Common Fisheries Policy won't have made his life easier.....HYUFD said:
Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus RobertsonAlistair said:
Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?TheScreamingEagles said:
Some of us have real money staked on this election.welshowl said:
Top trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.
Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
My wonderful late Father in law and one of Scotlands most successful fishermen voted labour all his life but he was great friends with Sir Bill Duthie his conservative mp who persuaded him to attend the Palace and receive his medal for services to the fishing industry from the King. He really did not want it but he also did not want to insult the King. Says everything about him really0 -
Oh, I thought it was that they were somehow displaced. I am not sure why a party would have to lie to find a venue for an event like that?FF43 said:
Impressed you could link the T&Cs. However if the booker did book a children's party and actually held a political event that does clearly break the terms - as well as being generally dishonest.RobD said:
Couldn't see that mentioned here:MarkSenior said:Oh Dear
Crathes Public Hall is a registered charity whose constitution forbids its use for political meetings . Apparently it was booked today for a children's party in the name of a certain Mr Burnett ,
http://www.crathes.com/hall-terms.htm0 -
Surely the principles should be; i) no discrimination between UK nationals irrespective of country of origin, ii) No discrimination between UK Permanent residents irrespective of country of origin.SouthamObserver said:
But that may well give EU nationals more rights than British citizens (and Brits abroad more rights than the citizens of the relevant country).welshowl said:
Broadly yes. Subject to the negotiation.SouthamObserver said:
More likely that Brits abroad and EU nationals continue to live on the same terms as they settled. That is, under those laid out in the Treaty.welshowl said:
That is extra judiciality and utterly unacceptable. We walk.Casino_Royale said:
It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.0 -
It will never happen. You simply cannot have an external legal system applying to a particular section of the population. If Verhofstadht really thinks that will happen he is going to be extremely disappointed.Casino_Royale said:
It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.0 -
Her policies are popular and necessary amongst those within and without the party - the Posh Boys rarely managed either. The mask of easy success that the Brexit campaign forced off Camborne crippled their standing in both.midwinter said:
As opposed to the current offerings from Mrs May...Mortimer said:
40-50 Tory Majority and Jezza stays would be brilliant result for the Tories...FrancisUrquhart said:
Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....CarlottaVance said:Glen O'Hara:
Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.
Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.
Handshakes all round.
My main problem with the Posh Boy's project is that it pretty much had a ceiling of 10-15 majority...
No vision amongst - but of course they hadn't experienced a good grammar school education...
A bodged grammar school announcement (when schools are under and unfairly funded in many counties already)
A cowardly u-turn on a sensible tax proposal (making her Chancellor look a tit to boot).
A rehash of a (dumb) Miliband energy policy.
Some vague waffle that Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be Red, White and Blue....
Stunning. Can't understand how the political titan that is Corbyn is catching her hand over fist......
But getting back to electoral strategy, where did a Cameron/Osborne party that had Remained go in 2020? Facing a LD party who had been in opposition for 5 years and therefore able to recapture votes in SW. And a Labour Party who could point and shout 'they are not like you and never will be' at an out of touch metropolitan leadership.
For all the guff about long term economic plans, Cambornism had no long term strategy for winning the next election. Moving tanks on to Labour's lawn and winning Lab/Tory marginals is both more audacious and far sighted...
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One could not help but notice that the mood of the PB Tories tonight is somewhat different from their mood last Saturday night.bigjohnowls said:0 -
"4. The hirer may only use the hall for the purpose specified at the time of hire."RobD said:
Couldn't see that mentioned here:MarkSenior said:Oh Dear
Crathes Public Hall is a registered charity whose constitution forbids its use for political meetings . Apparently it was booked today for a children's party in the name of a certain Mr Burnett ,
http://www.crathes.com/hall-terms.htm0 -
People like unsecure work ,no pension,no sick pay, crap wages and no union ask any boss when May visits their workplace as it gives them freedom.FrancisUrquhart said:Labour party pledges to outlaw all zero-hours contracts
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/election-labour-mcdonnell-corbyn-zero-hours-economy
But lots of people actually like them...and it will totally screw so many businesses if they outlaw all ZHC, no ifs, no buts. ZHC is basically just agency work under another name, which has been about for donkeys years. And also enables businesses to trial workers before giving them full time roles.
As long as individuals on ZHC are free to take their labour where ever they want, I see no problem.
No unpaid internships, a lot of Labour MPs and the Guardian are going to be out of pocket a few quid.0 -
Agreed. We will look after ours. Whether we'll come to the aid of others is another matter.SouthamObserver said:
The UK government is not going to put the security of British citizens more at risk as a Brexit negotiation tool.chestnut said:
We aren't the ones with the budget surplus, receiving net contributions, exporting people or relying on the goodwill of our neighbour to supply a modern armed force and excellence with defence and security.williamglenn said:Charles Grant @CER_Grant
German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y
https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/858089918270197760
When do you suppose they will wake up?
We have two years to organise our plan to phase them out.
0 -
You keep repeating that rubbish but I'm certain that security cooperation is on the table. I look forward to being vindicated a year from now and watching you impotently rage against the government for pulling security and military cooperation (NATO excepted).SouthamObserver said:
The UK government is not going to put the security of British citizens more at risk as a Brexit negotiation tool.chestnut said:
We aren't the ones with the budget surplus, receiving net contributions, exporting people or relying on the goodwill of our neighbour to supply a modern armed force and excellence with defence and security.williamglenn said:Charles Grant @CER_Grant
German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y
https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/858089918270197760
When do you suppose they will wake up?
We have two years to organise our plan to phase them out.0 -
Fair enough. But Labour have significantly narrowed the gap in the last week despite Corbyn and a dire campaign thus far.HYUFD said:
He isn't even on tonight's polls Corbyn trails May by more than Hague trailed Blair or Kinnock trailed Thatchermidwinter said:
As opposed to the current offerings from Mrs May...Mortimer said:
40-50 Tory Majority and Jezza stays would be brilliant result for the Tories...FrancisUrquhart said:
Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....CarlottaVance said:Glen O'Hara:
Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.
Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.
Handshakes all round.
My main problem with the Posh Boy's project is that it pretty much had a ceiling of 10-15 majority...
No vision amongst - but of course they hadn't experienced a good grammar school education...
A bodged grammar school announcement (when schools are under and unfairly funded in many counties already)
A cowardly u-turn on a sensible tax proposal (making her Chancellor look a tit to boot).
A rehash of a (dumb) Miliband energy policy.
Some vague waffle that Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be Red, White and Blue....
Stunning. Can't understand how the political titan that is Corbyn is catching her hand over fist......
And I'm still struggling to see what Mrs May has actually done or said to encourage voters other than not being Corbyn.0 -
He was. I spent hours talking with him about the fishing and his time developing the Irish fishing fleets. He was a wonderful 'skipper' to all his men who loved him to bits. He had 9 brothers and 2 sisters, two boys died as infants. They were all involved in the fishing and 2 brothers were lost at seaHYUFD said:
Sounds a great characterBig_G_NorthWales said:
It was at one time.HYUFD said:
Yes, it has a strong chance of going ToryBig_G_NorthWales said:
It is where my Scottish family live - good fisher folkHYUFD said:
Yes, it is the most pro Leave seat in ScotlandCarlottaVance said:
May's Press & Journal comments on the Common Fisheries Policy won't have made his life easier.....HYUFD said:
Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus RobertsonAlistair said:
Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?TheScreamingEagles said:
Some of us have real money staked on this election.welshowl said:
Top trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.
Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
My wonderful late Father in law and one of Scotlands most successful fishermen voted labour all his life but he was great friends with Sir Bill Duthie his conservative mp who persuaded him to attend the Palace and receive his medal for services to the fishing industry from the King. He really did not want it but he also did not want to insult the King. Says everything about him really0 -
I can't see (ii) being a huge problem. But (i) will be. Brits in the EU would have their rights protected by the ECJ as they would be within its jurisdiction. Not unreasonably, EU member states will want to ensure that the rights of their citizens are as robustly protected in the UK.CarlottaVance said:
The issues are; i) ECJ oversight and ii) Subsequent amendment of EU rules.SouthamObserver said:
More likely that Brits abroad and EU nationals continue to live on the same terms as they settled. That is, under those laid out in the Treaty.welshowl said:
That is extra judiciality and utterly unacceptable. We walk.Casino_Royale said:
It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.
0 -
The rise in self employment suggests that, despite your shed load of sarcasm, people prefer to be liberated from restrictive employment law...Yorkcity said:
People like unsecure work ,no pension,no sick pay, crap wages and no union ask any boss when May visits their workplace as it gives them freedom.FrancisUrquhart said:Labour party pledges to outlaw all zero-hours contracts
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/election-labour-mcdonnell-corbyn-zero-hours-economy
But lots of people actually like them...and it will totally screw so many businesses if they outlaw all ZHC, no ifs, no buts. ZHC is basically just agency work under another name, which has been about for donkeys years. And also enables businesses to trial workers before giving them full time roles.
As long as individuals on ZHC are free to take their labour where ever they want, I see no problem.
No unpaid internships, a lot of Labour MPs and the Guardian are going to be out of pocket a few quid.0 -
I think the referendum result broke Williamglenn. I imagine that when we actually do leave he will be found in a corner rocking backwards and forwards mumbling the names of past presidents of the Commission.welshowl said:
Jesus.H.Christ. Delusional.williamglenn said:
The Brexiteering public has been put on a war footing in response to all this rhetoric around the negotiations.Disraeli said:
William, I've got to break this to you mate, but even if the UK wanted to remain in the EU we couldn't.williamglenn said:
It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The EU has had enough of us.
We voted OUT once, and we could do it again. What with all our opt-outs, failure to join the Euro and Schengen, and generally being the "awkward squad" and acting as a break on "ever close union"...they are fed up with us.
THEY DON'T WANT US ANYMORE.
Either cry or cheer, according to your preference.
Wars, even wars of words, end with victory or defeat, and it is the illusions of Brexit that will be defeated. Once the reality of that humiliation has sunk in, we will accept the consequences with quiet dignity and resolve and resume our rightful place at the heart of Europe.0 -
In a parallel universe where Blair had joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq we would now have immense power and influence within the EU. People may even have joked that Theresa May was the Queen of Europe, instead of giving that honorary title to the German Chancellor.Disraeli said:We have never, ever been at the heart of Europe. Oh! We have often said that we wanted to be, but the heart of Europe has always been the Franco-German "motor".
0 -
A whole host of surveys and polling of the past several years continue to show a significant proportion of people who work via ZHC say they do. Who am I to argue with that.Yorkcity said:
People like unsecure work ,no pension,no sick pay, crap wages and no union ask any boss when May visits their workplace as it gives them freedom.FrancisUrquhart said:Labour party pledges to outlaw all zero-hours contracts
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/election-labour-mcdonnell-corbyn-zero-hours-economy
But lots of people actually like them...and it will totally screw so many businesses if they outlaw all ZHC, no ifs, no buts. ZHC is basically just agency work under another name, which has been about for donkeys years. And also enables businesses to trial workers before giving them full time roles.
As long as individuals on ZHC are free to take their labour where ever they want, I see no problem.
No unpaid internships, a lot of Labour MPs and the Guardian are going to be out of pocket a few quid.0 -
They may prefer it to 'no work', as in much of Continental Europe:Yorkcity said:
People like unsecure work ,no pension,no sick pay, crap wages and no union ask any boss when May visits their workplace as it gives them freedom.FrancisUrquhart said:Labour party pledges to outlaw all zero-hours contracts
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/election-labour-mcdonnell-corbyn-zero-hours-economy
But lots of people actually like them...and it will totally screw so many businesses if they outlaw all ZHC, no ifs, no buts. ZHC is basically just agency work under another name, which has been about for donkeys years. And also enables businesses to trial workers before giving them full time roles.
As long as individuals on ZHC are free to take their labour where ever they want, I see no problem.
No unpaid internships, a lot of Labour MPs and the Guardian are going to be out of pocket a few quid.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/0 -
@Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan said:
Sadly, only been as far north as Leuchars by train.old_labour said:May's event was very near to the Royal Deeside Railway.
http://www.deeside-railway.co.uk/
You might find this interesting. It deals with the far north.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-author-wins-national-railway-book-of-the-year-award-1-44308850 -
Apart from dropping a load of commitments Cameron never thought he'd have to implement, I wonder what actual vote-grabbing promises will be in the Tory manifesto?0
-
I don't think things are as rigid as that. And a bad Brexit leading to job losses, tax rises and cuts in services would be quite a gamechanger potentially. That said, I agree that 30% is way too high for this election.another_richard said:
I suspect that without a LibDem recovery Labour's floor is about 25%.SouthamObserver said:I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
On the other hand Labour's ceiling might be no higher than 33%.
I'd say Labour's problem is that its voting blocks are smaller than the Conservative voting blocks:
Public sector vs Private sector
Non-white vs White
Young vs Old
City vs Non-city
0 -
That's really interesting if so. Do you have a link to the data?FrancisUrquhart said:
A whole host of surveys and polling of the past several years continue to show a significant proportion of people who work via ZHC say they do. Who am I to argue with that.Yorkcity said:
People like unsecure work ,no pension,no sick pay, crap wages and no union ask any boss when May visits their workplace as it gives them freedom.FrancisUrquhart said:Labour party pledges to outlaw all zero-hours contracts
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/election-labour-mcdonnell-corbyn-zero-hours-economy
But lots of people actually like them...and it will totally screw so many businesses if they outlaw all ZHC, no ifs, no buts. ZHC is basically just agency work under another name, which has been about for donkeys years. And also enables businesses to trial workers before giving them full time roles.
As long as individuals on ZHC are free to take their labour where ever they want, I see no problem.
No unpaid internships, a lot of Labour MPs and the Guardian are going to be out of pocket a few quid.0 -
What a fight.0
-
Wouldn't they reduce it if in the Championship - you've probably lost £0.50p.KentRising said:Just put £15 on Palace to be relegated. 40-1. Insurance, pays for next season's season ticket if the worst happens
0 -
So should a German citizen living in the US be under ECJ jurisdiction as well? Come off it. This is the kind of bullshit from the EU that will lead to hard Brexit. From 2019 we will be a third state to the EU, an outside party. EU citizens are welcome to stay but the rules are changing. If they don't like the new rules then they are welcome to leave, most won't because the British justice system is better than what they would get at home and anything that comes out of Luxembourg.SouthamObserver said:
I can't see (ii) being a huge problem. But (i) will be. Brits in the EU would have their rights protected by the ECJ as they would be within its jurisdiction. Not unreasonably, EU member states will want to ensure that the rights of their citizens are as robustly protected in the UK.CarlottaVance said:
The issues are; i) ECJ oversight and ii) Subsequent amendment of EU rules.SouthamObserver said:
More likely that Brits abroad and EU nationals continue to live on the same terms as they settled. That is, under those laid out in the Treaty.welshowl said:
That is extra judiciality and utterly unacceptable. We walk.Casino_Royale said:
It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.0 -
Which one? The one in Hartlepool or in London?bobajobPB said:What a fight.
0 -
On the contrary, they seem far better prepared for a Leave vote than we are. The EU27 have spent the last 10 months preparing for Brexit, while our government has made nearly no plans. The last year has been squandered.another_richard said:
Including the assumption that Remain would win easily.Casino_Royale said:
There is plenty of delusion on the EU side.williamglenn said:Charles Grant @CER_Grant
German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y
https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/858089918270197760
I agree with Disraeli. We have burnt our boats with the EU. There is no going back, not for a couple of decades anyway.
0 -
I'm guessing: School reform, tax reform, Lords Reform, and Brexit-not-in-name-only.NeilVW said:Apart from dropping a load of commitments Cameron never thought he'd have to implement, I wonder what actual vote-grabbing promises will be in the Tory manifesto?
And I think it'll be tremendously popular.0 -
Police are investigating an ‘appalling’ film that compares officers protecting a shale gas site to Nazi SS guards who murdered millions of Jews in the Holocaust.
The video created by environmentalists intercuts footage of anti-fracking protesters confronting police with scenes from the Oscar-winning film Schindler’s List.
In one of the most offensive scenes, the filmmakers use a clip in which a young Jewish woman is shot in the head by an SS officer. The woman’s final words are dubbed over with the voice of anti-fracking protester and Green Party Election candidate Tina Rothery*.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4459120/Fury-fracking-protesters-compare-police-Nazi-butchers.html
*She claims she knew nothing about the film.
The far lefty fringe appear to be more obsessed with the Jews / Hitler and than the far right these days.0 -
Depends what you class as self employment.Mortimer said:
The rise in self employment suggests that, despite your shed load of sarcasm, people prefer to be liberated from restrictive employment law...Yorkcity said:
People like unsecure work ,no pension,no sick pay, crap wages and no union ask any boss when May visits their workplace as it gives them freedom.FrancisUrquhart said:Labour party pledges to outlaw all zero-hours contracts
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/election-labour-mcdonnell-corbyn-zero-hours-economy
But lots of people actually like them...and it will totally screw so many businesses if they outlaw all ZHC, no ifs, no buts. ZHC is basically just agency work under another name, which has been about for donkeys years. And also enables businesses to trial workers before giving them full time roles.
As long as individuals on ZHC are free to take their labour where ever they want, I see no problem.
No unpaid internships, a lot of Labour MPs and the Guardian are going to be out of pocket a few quid.0 -
On (ii) how can we have two sets of regulations for people in the UK depending on where they are from - which is how some are writing up the EU demand.SouthamObserver said:
I can't see (ii) being a huge problem. But (i) will be. Brits in the EU would have their rights protected by the ECJ as they would be within its jurisdiction. Not unreasonably, EU member states will want to ensure that the rights of their citizens are as robustly protected in the UK.CarlottaVance said:
The issues are; i) ECJ oversight and ii) Subsequent amendment of EU rules.SouthamObserver said:
More likely that Brits abroad and EU nationals continue to live on the same terms as they settled. That is, under those laid out in the Treaty.welshowl said:
That is extra judiciality and utterly unacceptable. We walk.Casino_Royale said:
It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.
They keep telling us we will be a 'Third Country' (except when it comes to fisheries or security or defence or...) in which other 'Third Countries' are EU citizens rights protected by the ECJ?
Yes, there may need to be a mutually agreed method for resolving disputes - but it can't be the ECJ.0 -
Note: unless Labour's vote goes up relative to 2015, the Conservative majority will increase regardless. No prospect that large influx of ex-Ukip voters will be outnumbered by 2015 Tories going elsewhere. Lib Dems not doing well enough to inflict significant damage.
Question is, if (and I still, think it's a very big if) the Labour vote share does get somewhere close to holding up, will it be in the same places as before, or will they be building up votes in Remain-leaning areas and losing them in Leave-leaning areas? If the former, this will help limit losses. If the latter, it will exacerbate them.0 -
You don't have to be under ECJ jurisdiction. You just need provisions that guarantee existing rights will not be taken away.MaxPB said:
So should a German citizen living in the US be under ECJ jurisdiction as well? Come off it. This is the kind of bullshit from the EU that will lead to hard Brexit. From 2019 we will be a third state to the EU, an outside party. EU citizens are welcome to stay but the rules are changing. If they don't like the new rules then they are welcome to leave, most won't because the British justice system is better than what they would get at home and anything that comes out of Luxembourg.SouthamObserver said:
I can't see (ii) being a huge problem. But (i) will be. Brits in the EU would have their rights protected by the ECJ as they would be within its jurisdiction. Not unreasonably, EU member states will want to ensure that the rights of their citizens are as robustly protected in the UK.CarlottaVance said:
The issues are; i) ECJ oversight and ii) Subsequent amendment of EU rules.SouthamObserver said:
More likely that Brits abroad and EU nationals continue to live on the same terms as they settled. That is, under those laid out in the Treaty.welshowl said:
That is extra judiciality and utterly unacceptable. We walk.Casino_Royale said:
It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.
0 -
I want some of what you're taking, William.williamglenn said:
In a parallel universe where Blair had joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq we would now have immense power and influence within the EU. People may even have joked that Theresa May was the Queen of Europe, instead of giving that honorary title to the German Chancellor.Disraeli said:We have never, ever been at the heart of Europe. Oh! We have often said that we wanted to be, but the heart of Europe has always been the Franco-German "motor".
0 -
Why?SouthamObserver said:
You don't have to be under ECJ jurisdiction. You just need provisions that guarantee existing rights will not be taken away.MaxPB said:
So should a German citizen living in the US be under ECJ jurisdiction as well? Come off it. This is the kind of bullshit from the EU that will lead to hard Brexit. From 2019 we will be a third state to the EU, an outside party. EU citizens are welcome to stay but the rules are changing. If they don't like the new rules then they are welcome to leave, most won't because the British justice system is better than what they would get at home and anything that comes out of Luxembourg.SouthamObserver said:
I can't see (ii) being a huge problem. But (i) will be. Brits in the EU would have their rights protected by the ECJ as they would be within its jurisdiction. Not unreasonably, EU member states will want to ensure that the rights of their citizens are as robustly protected in the UK.CarlottaVance said:
The issues are; i) ECJ oversight and ii) Subsequent amendment of EU rules.SouthamObserver said:
More likely that Brits abroad and EU nationals continue to live on the same terms as they settled. That is, under those laid out in the Treaty.welshowl said:
That is extra judiciality and utterly unacceptable. We walk.Casino_Royale said:
It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.
Remember that was why the A50 vote was forced by the SC. Parliament has voted in favour of A50 because it will mean certain rights are going to be rescinded in 2019 once we leave, ECJ jurisdiction is one of them.0 -
You have noticed the damage the Euro has done haven't you? Or indeed the existential crisis that would have been caused by our deficit had we been in it in 2008?williamglenn said:
In a parallel universe where Blair had joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq we would now have immense power and influence within the EU. People may even have joked that Theresa May was the Queen of Europe, instead of giving that honorary title to the German Chancellor.Disraeli said:We have never, ever been at the heart of Europe. Oh! We have often said that we wanted to be, but the heart of Europe has always been the Franco-German "motor".
In short, I think you've forgotten to take your medicine.0 -
Yeah. I take your point about the difficulty of direction had Remain won and even the Posh Boy spiel has a ring of truth to it (although all snobbery inverted or otherwise is vile).Mortimer said:
Her policies are popular and necessary amongst those within and without the party - the Posh Boys rarely managed either. The mask of easy success that the Brexit campaign forced off Camborne crippled their standing in both.midwinter said:
As opposed to the current offerings from Mrs May...Mortimer said:
40-50 Tory Majority and Jezza stays would be brilliant result for the Tories...FrancisUrquhart said:
Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....CarlottaVance said:Glen O'Hara:
Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.
Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.
Handshakes all round.
My main problem with the Posh Boy's project is that it pretty much had a ceiling of 10-15 majority...
No vision amongst - but of course they hadn't experienced a good grammar school education...
A bodged grammar school announcement (when schools are under and unfairly funded in many counties already)
A cowardly u-turn on a sensible tax proposal (making her Chancellor look a tit to boot).
A rehash of a (dumb) Miliband energy policy.
Some vague waffle that Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be Red, White and Blue....
Stunning. Can't understand how the political titan that is Corbyn is catching her hand over fist......
But getting back to electoral strategy, where did a Cameron/Osborne party that had Remained go in 2020? Facing a LD party who had been in opposition for 5 years and therefore able to recapture votes in SW. And a Labour Party who could point and shout 'they are not like you and never will be' at an out of touch metropolitan leadership.
For all the guff about long term economic plans, Cambornism had no long term strategy for winning the next election. Moving tanks on to Labour's lawn and winning Lab/Tory marginals is both more audacious and far sighted...
My point is more that Mrs May hasn't really articulated clearly any clear policy and the snippets we've seen so far have been either incoherent or dropped. Hopefully the manifesto will give us a better idea of her vision.
0 -
Yes I would agree with that Carlotta it is terrible on the continent youth unemployment.CarlottaVance said:
They may prefer it to 'no work', as in much of Continental Europe:Yorkcity said:
People like unsecure work ,no pension,no sick pay, crap wages and no union ask any boss when May visits their workplace as it gives them freedom.FrancisUrquhart said:Labour party pledges to outlaw all zero-hours contracts
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/election-labour-mcdonnell-corbyn-zero-hours-economy
But lots of people actually like them...and it will totally screw so many businesses if they outlaw all ZHC, no ifs, no buts. ZHC is basically just agency work under another name, which has been about for donkeys years. And also enables businesses to trial workers before giving them full time roles.
As long as individuals on ZHC are free to take their labour where ever they want, I see no problem.
No unpaid internships, a lot of Labour MPs and the Guardian are going to be out of pocket a few quid.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/0 -
Some scenic journeys in Scotland to whet your appetite. Surprisingly they don't include the Edinburgh to Aberdeen route that you presumably travelled on, and which crosses the two great railway bridges.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sadly, only been as far north as Leuchars by train.old_labour said:May's event was very near to the Royal Deeside Railway.
http://www.deeside-railway.co.uk/
0 -
I rage impotently now, as do you. The UK government will not increase the security threat faced by British citizens. I am surprised you think it will.MaxPB said:
You keep repeating that rubbish but I'm certain that security cooperation is on the table. I look forward to being vindicated a year from now and watching you impotently rage against the government for pulling security and military cooperation (NATO excepted).SouthamObserver said:
The UK government is not going to put the security of British citizens more at risk as a Brexit negotiation tool.chestnut said:
We aren't the ones with the budget surplus, receiving net contributions, exporting people or relying on the goodwill of our neighbour to supply a modern armed force and excellence with defence and security.williamglenn said:Charles Grant @CER_Grant
German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y
https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/858089918270197760
When do you suppose they will wake up?
We have two years to organise our plan to phase them out.
0 -
No, Germany will always dominate the EU see Greece and the UK has always been the most global of the main European powerswilliamglenn said:
In a parallel universe where Blair had joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq we would now have immense power and influence within the EU. People may even have joked that Theresa May was the Queen of Europe, instead of giving that honorary title to the German Chancellor.Disraeli said:We have never, ever been at the heart of Europe. Oh! We have often said that we wanted to be, but the heart of Europe has always been the Franco-German "motor".
0 -
Any nurse working on the Hospital bank for example, so they can be free for school holidays. Mrs Fox did this for some years when Fox jr was small.Pong said:
That's really interesting if so. Do you have a link to the data?FrancisUrquhart said:
A whole host of surveys and polling of the past several years continue to show a significant proportion of people who work via ZHC say they do. Who am I to argue with that.Yorkcity said:
People like unsecure work ,no pension,no sick pay, crap wages and no union ask any boss when May visits their workplace as it gives them freedom.FrancisUrquhart said:Labour party pledges to outlaw all zero-hours contracts
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/election-labour-mcdonnell-corbyn-zero-hours-economy
But lots of people actually like them...and it will totally screw so many businesses if they outlaw all ZHC, no ifs, no buts. ZHC is basically just agency work under another name, which has been about for donkeys years. And also enables businesses to trial workers before giving them full time roles.
As long as individuals on ZHC are free to take their labour where ever they want, I see no problem.
No unpaid internships, a lot of Labour MPs and the Guardian are going to be out of pocket a few quid.
0 -
Not in business.HYUFD said:
No, Germany will always dominate the EU see Greece and the UK has always been the most global of the main European powerswilliamglenn said:
In a parallel universe where Blair had joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq we would now have immense power and influence within the EU. People may even have joked that Theresa May was the Queen of Europe, instead of giving that honorary title to the German Chancellor.Disraeli said:We have never, ever been at the heart of Europe. Oh! We have often said that we wanted to be, but the heart of Europe has always been the Franco-German "motor".
0 -
We don't know what plans have been made by the UK government, Hopefully any that have been made have been kept under wraps. Given how May sprang the election I wouldn't discount that.foxinsoxuk said:
On the contrary, they seem far better prepared for a Leave vote than we are. The EU27 have spent the last 10 months preparing for Brexit, while our government has made nearly no plans. The last year has been squandered.another_richard said:
Including the assumption that Remain would win easily.Casino_Royale said:
There is plenty of delusion on the EU side.williamglenn said:Charles Grant @CER_Grant
German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y
https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/858089918270197760
I agree with Disraeli. We have burnt our boats with the EU. There is no going back, not for a couple of decades anyway.0 -
Significantly narrowed - as in 0.5%?midwinter said:
Fair enough. But Labour have significantly narrowed the gap in the last week despite Corbyn and a dire campaign thus far.HYUFD said:
He isn't even on tonight's polls Corbyn trails May by more than Hague trailed Blair or Kinnock trailed Thatchermidwinter said:
As opposed to the current offerings from Mrs May...Mortimer said:
40-50 Tory Majority and Jezza stays would be brilliant result for the Tories...FrancisUrquhart said:
Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....CarlottaVance said:Glen O'Hara:
Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.
Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.
Handshakes all round.
My main problem with the Posh Boy's project is that it pretty much had a ceiling of 10-15 majority...
No vision amongst - but of course they hadn't experienced a good grammar school education...
A bodged grammar school announcement (when schools are under and unfairly funded in many counties already)
A cowardly u-turn on a sensible tax proposal (making her Chancellor look a tit to boot).
A rehash of a (dumb) Miliband energy policy.
Some vague waffle that Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be Red, White and Blue....
Stunning. Can't understand how the political titan that is Corbyn is catching her hand over fist......
And I'm still struggling to see what Mrs May has actually done or said to encourage voters other than not being Corbyn.0 -
There was no planning prior to the EU referendum because the arrogant fool Cameron forbade it. Since the vote, a considerable amount of running around will doubtless have been taking place.foxinsoxuk said:
On the contrary, they seem far better prepared for a Leave vote than we are. The EU27 have spent the last 10 months preparing for Brexit, while our government has made nearly no plans. The last year has been squandered.another_richard said:
Including the assumption that Remain would win easily.Casino_Royale said:
There is plenty of delusion on the EU side.williamglenn said:Charles Grant @CER_Grant
German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y
https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/858089918270197760
I agree with Disraeli. We have burnt our boats with the EU. There is no going back, not for a couple of decades anyway.
I concur that there's no prospect of a return to the EU in the short-to-medium term, and quite possibly not in the long-term (if it's around for us to rejoin by then.) I compare the entire concept of re-joining the EU once we are out of it to the abolition of the monarchy: something that maybe a fifth or even a quarter of the population feels is a good idea in theory, but that only a small number of hard core obsessives feel passionately about in practice.0 -
Labour have upped their voteshare a bit compared to last week but have not really made many inroads into the Tory share which is still well above 2015 indeed Opinium has the LDs down 3% and Labour up 4% so almost all the Labour gains came from the LDs, perhaps after Farron's gay sin fiascomidwinter said:
Fair enough. But Labour have significantly narrowed the gap in the last week despite Corbyn and a dire campaign thus far.HYUFD said:
He isn't even on tonight's polls Corbyn trails May by more than Hague trailed Blair or Kinnock trailed Thatchermidwinter said:
As opposed to the current offerings from Mrs May...Mortimer said:
40-50 Tory Majority and Jezza stays would be brilliant result for the Tories...FrancisUrquhart said:
Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....CarlottaVance said:Glen O'Hara:
Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.
Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.
Handshakes all round.
My main problem with the Posh Boy's project is that it pretty much had a ceiling of 10-15 majority...
No vision amongst - but of course they hadn't experienced a good grammar school education...
A bodged grammar school announcement (when schools are under and unfairly funded in many counties already)
A cowardly u-turn on a sensible tax proposal (making her Chancellor look a tit to boot).
A rehash of a (dumb) Miliband energy policy.
Some vague waffle that Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be Red, White and Blue....
Stunning. Can't understand how the political titan that is Corbyn is catching her hand over fist......
And I'm still struggling to see what Mrs May has actually done or said to encourage voters other than not being Corbyn.0 -
We would've done an Ireland. House prices soared under 2% interest rates rather then the 5% that prevailed in the noughties, and brought the whole system down with us as we were far too big to bail out.williamglenn said:
In a parallel universe where Blair had joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq we would now have immense power and influence within the EU. People may even have joked that Theresa May was the Queen of Europe, instead of giving that honorary title to the German Chancellor.Disraeli said:We have never, ever been at the heart of Europe. Oh! We have often said that we wanted to be, but the heart of Europe has always been the Franco-German "motor".
0 -
Plans and shock and awe political theatre are not the same thing. I can quite believe that May has been practising in front of the mirror, but that's not the same as a plan.BenedictWhite said:
We don't know what plans have been made by the UK government, Hopefully any that have been made have been kept under wraps. Given how May sprang the election I wouldn't discount that.foxinsoxuk said:
On the contrary, they seem far better prepared for a Leave vote than we are. The EU27 have spent the last 10 months preparing for Brexit, while our government has made nearly no plans. The last year has been squandered.another_richard said:
Including the assumption that Remain would win easily.Casino_Royale said:
There is plenty of delusion on the EU side.williamglenn said:Charles Grant @CER_Grant
German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y
https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/858089918270197760
I agree with Disraeli. We have burnt our boats with the EU. There is no going back, not for a couple of decades anyway.0 -
Though it does sound that they are empathising with the Jews, not condemning them!FrancisUrquhart said:Police are investigating an ‘appalling’ film that compares officers protecting a shale gas site to Nazi SS guards who murdered millions of Jews in the Holocaust.
The video created by environmentalists intercuts footage of anti-fracking protesters confronting police with scenes from the Oscar-winning film Schindler’s List.
In one of the most offensive scenes, the filmmakers use a clip in which a young Jewish woman is shot in the head by an SS officer. The woman’s final words are dubbed over with the voice of anti-fracking protester and Green Party Election candidate Tina Rothery*.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4459120/Fury-fracking-protesters-compare-police-Nazi-butchers.html
*She claims she knew nothing about the film.
The far lefty fringe appear to be more obsessed with the Jews / Hitler and than the far right these days.0 -
UK citizens living abroad lose rights unless there is a deal. That is why a deal is necessary. The rights British citizens currently living in the UK will lose are less saveable.MaxPB said:
Why?SouthamObserver said:
You don't have to be under ECJ jurisdiction. You just need provisions that guarantee existing rights will not be taken away.MaxPB said:
So should a German citizen living in the US be under ECJ jurisdiction as well? Come off it. This is the kind of bullshit from the EU that will lead to hard Brexit. From 2019 we will be a third state to the EU, an outside party. EU citizens are welcome to stay but the rules are changing. If they don't like the new rules then they are welcome to leave, most won't because the British justice system is better than what they would get at home and anything that comes out of Luxembourg.SouthamObserver said:
I can't see (ii) being a huge problem. But (i) will be. Brits in the EU would have their rights protected by the ECJ as they would be within its jurisdiction. Not unreasonably, EU member states will want to ensure that the rights of their citizens are as robustly protected in the UK.CarlottaVance said:
The issues are; i) ECJ oversight and ii) Subsequent amendment of EU rules.SouthamObserver said:
More likely that Brits abroad and EU nationals continue to live on the same terms as they settled. That is, under those laid out in the Treaty.welshowl said:
That is extra judiciality and utterly unacceptable. We walk.Casino_Royale said:
It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.
Remember that was why the A50 vote was forced by the SC. Parliament has voted in favour of A50 because it will mean certain rights are going to be rescinded in 2019 once we leave, ECJ jurisdiction is one of them.
0 -
TBH as a fellow BNCer I don't really like the Cameron posh boy designation either - but it is a useful shorthand for popular perceptions.midwinter said:
Yeah. I take your point about the difficulty of direction had Remain won and even the Posh Boy spiel has a ring of truth to it (although all snobbery inverted or otherwise is vile).Mortimer said:
Her policies are popular and necessary amongst those within and without the party - the Posh Boys rarely managed either. The mask of easy success that the Brexit campaign forced off Camborne crippled their standing in both.midwinter said:
As opposed to the current offerings from Mrs May...Mortimer said:FrancisUrquhart said:CarlottaVance said:Glen O'Hara:
A bodged grammar school announcement (when schools are under and unfairly funded in many counties already)
A cowardly u-turn on a sensible tax proposal (making her Chancellor look a tit to boot).
A rehash of a (dumb) Miliband energy policy.
Some vague waffle that Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be Red, White and Blue....
Stunning. Can't understand how the political titan that is Corbyn is catching her hand over fist......
But getting back to electoral strategy, where did a Cameron/Osborne party that had Remained go in 2020? Facing a LD party who had been in opposition for 5 years and therefore able to recapture votes in SW. And a Labour Party who could point and shout 'they are not like you and never will be' at an out of touch metropolitan leadership.
For all the guff about long term economic plans, Cambornism had no long term strategy for winning the next election. Moving tanks on to Labour's lawn and winning Lab/Tory marginals is both more audacious and far sighted...
My point is more that Mrs May hasn't really articulated clearly any clear policy and the snippets we've seen so far have been either incoherent or dropped. Hopefully the manifesto will give us a better idea of her vision.
In the spirit of PBTory rapprachemont I must admit that Mrs May's intentions seem to have exceeded her achievements so far. I understand your frustrations - and MaxPB's too - but honestly feel that her brand of Toryism is the only one that has a 2 or 3 election wins perspective.
Cameron was too limited in his aims - he should have been taking back seats in the Midlands in 2010 and 2015 by closing down the Kipper vote. He didn't want to, but it hurt his party's chances.
0 -
Seem very strange conservatives on here complaining about posh boys.I do not remember their complaints when they led the party.It was the opposite .midwinter said:
Yeah. I take your point about the difficulty of direction had Remain won and even the Posh Boy spiel has a ring of truth to it (although all snobbery inverted or otherwise is vile).Mortimer said:
Her policies are popular and necessary amongst those within and without the party - the Posh Boys rarely managed either. The mask of easy success that the Brexit campaign forced off Camborne crippled their standing in both.midwinter said:
As opposed to the current offerings from Mrs May...Mortimer said:
40-50 Tory Majority and Jezza stays would be brilliant result for the Tories...FrancisUrquhart said:
Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....CarlottaVance said:Glen O'Hara:
Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.
Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.
Handshakes all round.
My main problem with the Posh Boy's project is that it pretty much had a ceiling of 10-15 majority...
No vision amongst - but of course they hadn't experienced a good grammar school education...
A bodged grammar school announcement (when schools are under and unfairly funded in many counties already)
A cowardly u-turn on a sensible tax proposal (making her Chancellor look a tit to boot).
A rehash of a (dumb) Miliband energy policy.
Some vague waffle that Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be Red, White and Blue....
Stunning. Can't understand how the political titan that is Corbyn is catching her hand over fist......
But getting back to electoral strategy, where did a Cameron/Osborne party that had Remained go in 2020? Facing a LD party who had been in opposition for 5 years and therefore able to recapture votes in SW. And a Labour Party who could point and shout 'they are not like you and never will be' at an out of touch metropolitan leadership.
For all the guff about long term economic plans, Cambornism had no long term strategy for winning the next election. Moving tanks on to Labour's lawn and winning Lab/Tory marginals is both more audacious and far sighted...
My point is more that Mrs May hasn't really articulated clearly any clear policy and the snippets we've seen so far have been either incoherent or dropped. Hopefully the manifesto will give us a better idea of her vision.0 -
7%. From 23% to 16%. You are a smart boy. At least, you tell us that.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Significantly narrowed - as in 0.5%?midwinter said:
Fair enough. But Labour have significantly narrowed the gap in the last week despite Corbyn and a dire campaign thus far.HYUFD said:
He isn't even on tonight's polls Corbyn trails May by more than Hague trailed Blair or Kinnock trailed Thatchermidwinter said:
As opposed to the current offerings from Mrs May...Mortimer said:
40-50 Tory Majority and Jezza stays would be brilliant result for the Tories...FrancisUrquhart said:
Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....CarlottaVance said:Glen O'Hara:
Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.
Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.
Handshakes all round.
My main problem with the Posh Boy's project is that it pretty much had a ceiling of 10-15 majority...
No vision amongst - but of course they hadn't experienced a good grammar school education...
A bodged grammar school announcement (when schools are under and unfairly funded in many counties already)
A cowardly u-turn on a sensible tax proposal (making her Chancellor look a tit to boot).
A rehash of a (dumb) Miliband energy policy.
Some vague waffle that Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be Red, White and Blue....
Stunning. Can't understand how the political titan that is Corbyn is catching her hand over fist......
And I'm still struggling to see what Mrs May has actually done or said to encourage voters other than not being Corbyn.0 -
In my parallel reality Ken Clarke (or his policies) would have been in charge and we would have had better regulation of mortgage lending. In other words: assume competent government in the UK.welshowl said:
We would've done an Ireland. House prices soared under 2% interest rates rather then the 5% that prevailed in the noughties, and brought the whole system down with us as we were far too big to bail out.williamglenn said:
In a parallel universe where Blair had joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq we would now have immense power and influence within the EU. People may even have joked that Theresa May was the Queen of Europe, instead of giving that honorary title to the German Chancellor.Disraeli said:We have never, ever been at the heart of Europe. Oh! We have often said that we wanted to be, but the heart of Europe has always been the Franco-German "motor".
0 -
LOL. I really genuinely feel pity for you having such a delusional view of reality.williamglenn said:
In a parallel universe where Blair had joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq we would now have immense power and influence within the EU. People may even have joked that Theresa May was the Queen of Europe, instead of giving that honorary title to the German Chancellor.Disraeli said:We have never, ever been at the heart of Europe. Oh! We have often said that we wanted to be, but the heart of Europe has always been the Franco-German "motor".
0 -
It doesn't have to be. The issue is much more which law is applied.CarlottaVance said:
On (ii) how can we have two sets of regulations for people in the UK depending on where they are from - which is how some are writing up the EU demand.SouthamObserver said:
I can't see (ii) being a huge problem. But (i) will be. Brits in the EU would have their rights protected by the ECJ as they would be within its jurisdiction. Not unreasonably, EU member states will want to ensure that the rights of their citizens are as robustly protected in the UK.CarlottaVance said:
The issues are; i) ECJ oversight and ii) Subsequent amendment of EU rules.SouthamObserver said:
More likely that Brits abroad and EU nationals continue to live on the same terms as they settled. That is, under those laid out in the Treaty.welshowl said:
That is extra judiciality and utterly unacceptable. We walk.Casino_Royale said:
It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.CarlottaVance said:If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......
The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.
They keep telling us we will be a 'Third Country' (except when it comes to fisheries or security or defence or...) in which other 'Third Countries' are EU citizens rights protected by the ECJ?
Yes, there may need to be a mutually agreed method for resolving disputes - but it can't be the ECJ.
0 -
As someone who lives overseas for most of the year I don't look to the British government for my safety, it is up to the Swiss to make sure I'm safe. The same goes for the British people living in all other parts of the world, not just the EU. As Richard Nabavi pointed out last time, without a deal we fall out of the existing security cooperation structures. There is no way the government will discuss security without also having trade being discussed at the same time. Just as the EU maintains this idea of no a la carte menu, so will the government. Security is a major asset, it will be on the table. Truly I look forward to your howls of impotent rage a year from now.SouthamObserver said:I rage impotently now, as do you. The UK government will not increase the security threat faced by British citizens. I am surprised you think it will.
Anyway, you keep repeating that same old rubbish about how the government won't put British citizens at risk, but the simple fact is they already do it by not providing security information to middle eastern governments where tens of thousands of British citizens live and work under the threat of daily terror attacks.0 -
A security deal is interesting to the EU side so it's a card the UK can play. Mrs May completely misplayed it by issuing crude threats.SouthamObserver said:
I rage impotently now, as do you. The UK government will not increase the security threat faced by British citizens. I am surprised you think it will.MaxPB said:You keep repeating that rubbish but I'm certain that security cooperation is on the table. I look forward to being vindicated a year from now and watching you impotently rage against the government for pulling security and military cooperation (NATO excepted).
I have to say Mrs May's Brexit negotiating "strategy" baffles me. It's not just that she is a dire negotiator. She just doesn't seem to be interested. And it's very chaotic. Time will tell whether the EU side overreaches or has played their hand with huge success. What is certain is that they are clear about their goals, very focused in achieving them and have planned their approach rigorously.
0 -
With all the usual caveats, I've been canvassing in two quite different areas - my WWC area in Nottingham North (big Leave/UKIP votes) and various bits of Broxtowe (suburbia). The Labour vote seems to be mostly holding up in both (even increasing in the most university-related areas), but the UKIP->Con switch is much more obvious in Nottingham North. In other words, people who were alienated by Labour's perceived softness on immigration etc. had already left in 2015 to UKIP as a staging post, and are now moving on to the Tories.Black_Rook said:Note: unless Labour's vote goes up relative to 2015, the Conservative majority will increase regardless. No prospect that large influx of ex-Ukip voters will be outnumbered by 2015 Tories going elsewhere. Lib Dems not doing well enough to inflict significant damage.
Question is, if (and I still, think it's a very big if) the Labour vote share does get somewhere close to holding up, will it be in the same places as before, or will they be building up votes in Remain-leaning areas and losing them in Leave-leaning areas? If the former, this will help limit losses. If the latter, it will exacerbate them.
If - a big if - that's a general pattern, then the effect will be to make strong Labour/Leave seats more marginal, while not having much effect on typical suburban marginals where the WWC/Leave vote was smaller. We might see some very odd results.0 -
In my parallel reality I am billionaire and have my choice of super models every night of the week.williamglenn said:
In my parallel reality Ken Clarke would have been in charge and we would have had better regulation of mortgage lending. In other words: assume competent government in the UK.welshowl said:
We would've done an Ireland. House prices soared under 2% interest rates rather then the 5% that prevailed in the noughties, and brought the whole system down with us as we were far too big to bail out.williamglenn said:
In a parallel universe where Blair had joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq we would now have immense power and influence within the EU. People may even have joked that Theresa May was the Queen of Europe, instead of giving that honorary title to the German Chancellor.Disraeli said:We have never, ever been at the heart of Europe. Oh! We have often said that we wanted to be, but the heart of Europe has always been the Franco-German "motor".
My reality is more plausible than yours by the way.0 -
@ProfChalmers: Slightly confused by folk thinking that because a hall didn't put "SATURDAY TOP SECRET PM VISIT!" online, the booking was made by deception.MarkSenior said:Oh Dear
Crathes Public Hall is a registered charity whose constitution forbids its use for political meetings . Apparently it was booked today for a children's party in the name of a certain Mr Burnett ,0 -
tim used to call the duo "posh boys" or more endearingly "poshos". The PB Tories use to fume. Now they have taken up from where tim left....Yorkcity said:
Seem very strange conservatives on here complaining about posh boys.I do not remember their complaints when they led the party.It was the opposite .midwinter said:
Yeah. I take your point about the difficulty of direction had Remain won and even the Posh Boy spiel has a ring of truth to it (although all snobbery inverted or otherwise is vile).Mortimer said:
Her policies are popular and necessary amongst those within and without the party - the Posh Boys rarely managed either. The mask of easy success that the Brexit campaign forced off Camborne crippled their standing in both.midwinter said:
As opposed to the current offerings from Mrs May...Mortimer said:
40-50 Tory Majority and Jezza stays would be brilliant result for the Tories...FrancisUrquhart said:
Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....CarlottaVance said:Glen O'Hara:
Handshakes all round.
My main problem with the Posh Boy's project is that it pretty much had a ceiling of 10-15 majority...
No vision amongst - but of course they hadn't experienced a good grammar school education...
A bodged grammar school announcement (when schools are under and unfairly funded in many counties already)
A cowardly u-turn on a sensible tax proposal (making her Chancellor look a tit to boot).
A rehash of a (dumb) Miliband energy policy.
Some vague waffle that Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be Red, White and Blue....
Stunning. Can't understand how the political titan that is Corbyn is catching her hand over fist......
But getting back to electoral strategy, where did a Cameron/Osborne party that had Remained go in 2020? Facing a LD party who had been in opposition for 5 years and therefore able to recapture votes in SW. And a Labour Party who could point and shout 'they are not like you and never will be' at an out of touch metropolitan leadership.
For all the guff about long term economic plans, Cambornism had no long term strategy for winning the next election. Moving tanks on to Labour's lawn and winning Lab/Tory marginals is both more audacious and far sighted...
My point is more that Mrs May hasn't really articulated clearly any clear policy and the snippets we've seen so far have been either incoherent or dropped. Hopefully the manifesto will give us a better idea of her vision.0 -
Good point, so lose lose for Labour if they do slighty better than predicted and then Corbyn hangs on.FrancisUrquhart said:
Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....CarlottaVance said:Glen O'Hara:
Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.
Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.
Handshakes all round.0 -
Nick, did you see my question earlier about Tory Remainers?0
-
Has Broxtowe made a selection yet?NickPalmer said:
With all the usual caveats, I've been canvassing in two quite different areas - my WWC area in Nottingham North (big Leave/UKIP votes) and various bits of Broxtowe (suburbia). The Labour vote seems to be mostly holding up in both (even increasing in the most university-related areas), but the UKIP->Con switch is much more obvious in Nottingham North. In other words, people who were alienated by Labour's perceived softness on immigration etc. had already left in 2015 to UKIP as a staging post, and are now moving on to the Tories.Black_Rook said:Note: unless Labour's vote goes up relative to 2015, the Conservative majority will increase regardless. No prospect that large influx of ex-Ukip voters will be outnumbered by 2015 Tories going elsewhere. Lib Dems not doing well enough to inflict significant damage.
Question is, if (and I still, think it's a very big if) the Labour vote share does get somewhere close to holding up, will it be in the same places as before, or will they be building up votes in Remain-leaning areas and losing them in Leave-leaning areas? If the former, this will help limit losses. If the latter, it will exacerbate them.
If - a big if - that's a general pattern, then the effect will be to make strong Labour/Leave seats more marginal, while not having much effect on typical suburban marginals where the WWC/Leave vote was smaller. We might see some very odd results.0 -
That's a fair pointScott_P said:
@ProfChalmers: Slightly confused by folk thinking that because a hall didn't put "SATURDAY TOP SECRET PM VISIT!" online, the booking was made by deception.MarkSenior said:Oh Dear
Crathes Public Hall is a registered charity whose constitution forbids its use for political meetings . Apparently it was booked today for a children's party in the name of a certain Mr Burnett ,
0 -
But you said if Blair had joined the Euro.... he wasn't competent. Clearly. Good at winning elections though.williamglenn said:
In my parallel reality Ken Clarke (or his policies) would have been in charge and we would have had better regulation of mortgage lending. In other words: assume competent government in the UK.welshowl said:
We would've done an Ireland. House prices soared under 2% interest rates rather then the 5% that prevailed in the noughties, and brought the whole system down with us as we were far too big to bail out.williamglenn said:
In a parallel universe where Blair had joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq we would now have immense power and influence within the EU. People may even have joked that Theresa May was the Queen of Europe, instead of giving that honorary title to the German Chancellor.Disraeli said:We have never, ever been at the heart of Europe. Oh! We have often said that we wanted to be, but the heart of Europe has always been the Franco-German "motor".
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We'll survive. I'll apply for a visa, pay for private healthcare. Those who can't afford it or don't qualify will go home, and vice versa.SouthamObserver said:UK citizens living abroad lose rights unless there is a deal. That is why a deal is necessary. The rights British citizens currently living in the UK will lose are less saveable.
Even with a residency deal which maintains everyone's right to reside, there is no way the UK could ever allow the ECJ to extend its jurisdiction for any reason. On going cases or cases that are brought that relate to when we were in, sure, but from 2019 any new cases will have to be heard in a UK court under domestic law with no right of appeal to the ECJ. The solution is simple, if that isn't satisfactory then they are welcome to leave. I'm under no illusion that I will be able to bring a court case against a Swiss national or company to a UK court under UK law, I don't see why an EU citizen should expect anything different.0 -
Barnier is no mug. Who is our Barnier ?FF43 said:
A security deal is interesting to the EU side so it's a card the UK can play. Mrs May completely misplayed it by issuing crude threats.SouthamObserver said:
I rage impotently now, as do you. The UK government will not increase the security threat faced by British citizens. I am surprised you think it will.MaxPB said:You keep repeating that rubbish but I'm certain that security cooperation is on the table. I look forward to being vindicated a year from now and watching you impotently rage against the government for pulling security and military cooperation (NATO excepted).
I have to say Mrs May's Brexit negotiating "strategy" baffles me. It's not just that she is a dire negotiator. She just doesn't seem to be interested. And it's very chaotic. Time will tell whether the EU side overreaches or has played their hand with huge success. What is certain is that they are clear about their goals, very focused in achieving them and have planned their approach rigorously.0 -
Withdrawing cooperation is increasing risk. The UK government will not do it. Quite why you want British citizens to face heightened exposure to danger is beyond me.MaxPB said:
As someone who lives overseas for most of the year I don't look to the British government for my safety, it is up to the Swiss to make sure I'm safe. The same goes for the British people living in all other parts of the world, not just the EU. As Richard Nabavi pointed out last time, without a deal we fall out of the existing security cooperation structures. There is no way the government will discuss security without also having trade being discussed at the same time. Just as the EU maintains this idea of no a la carte menu, so will the government. Security is a major asset, it will be on the table. Truly I look forward to your howls of impotent rage a year from now.SouthamObserver said:I rage impotently now, as do you. The UK government will not increase the security threat faced by British citizens. I am surprised you think it will.
Anyway, you keep repeating that same old rubbish about how the government won't put British citizens at risk, but the simple fact is they already do it by not providing security information to middle eastern governments where tens of thousands of British citizens live and work under the threat of daily terror attacks.
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I think "Constituency meeting" during an election campaign would both be honest and not particularly give away the PM's movements. "Childrens' Party" is rather less honest , except if they were self-deprecatingly referring to the infantile nature of the Conservative and Unionist Party.Scott_P said:
@ProfChalmers: Slightly confused by folk thinking that because a hall didn't put "SATURDAY TOP SECRET PM VISIT!" online, the booking was made by deception.MarkSenior said:Oh Dear
Crathes Public Hall is a registered charity whose constitution forbids its use for political meetings . Apparently it was booked today for a children's party in the name of a certain Mr Burnett ,0
