politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest French polls not quite as good for Macron as they were

chestnut said:

saddened said:

surbiton said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/brexit-rights-of-eu-nationals-eu27

This is getting nasty.

All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.

That depends on what they ask for and what we want.

The hard reality is that most of the 27 are irrelevant to our expat issue.

Nearly 80% of our expats are in just half a dozen nations.

If they are expats they are there on a temporary basis and will soon be returning home, so no problem.

If, however, they are immigrants, then they might have something to worry about.

MarkHopkins said:

Freggles said:

MarkHopkins said:

saddened said:

surbiton said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/brexit-rights-of-eu-nationals-eu27

This is getting nasty.

All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.

Yeah, but that would mean the EU treating us as equals.

Which seems to be a problem for them.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOL

"Opt out" and "rebate" not part of your vocabulary then?

Until TMay, we had no-one the calibre of Thatcher.

It's a shame we're leaving then. We'll never get to see what she could have done for the country inside the EU.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Con 42% Lab 31% LD 10% UKIP 8 % in @ORB_Int poll, too much analysis is given to the the subsamples in the write up

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/

Seem to show labour well ahead in the north east and north west. I very much doubt that with all the available UKIP votes for the conservatives

TheScreamingEagles said:

Con 42% Lab 31% LD 10% UKIP 8 % in @ORB_Int poll, too much analysis is given to the the subsamples in the write up

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/

The subsample abuse is truly shocking.

justin124 said:

A good vote winner for Labour might be to rule out any further rise in the State Pension Age.Perhaps they could even go so far as to reverse the acceleration of the later Pension Age announced by Osborne in 2011 – and revert to the timetable previously announced by the Brown Government.

Justin shakes the magic money tree.

Calum

The first ever poll to include the dominant party as "others" and to feature graphs which imply the poor second rated party is first. The Telegraph is becoming as big a comic as the Express!

So last weekend it was 12 gains, mid week 8 and now 7. Seems the Tory direction is backwards.

"Some 27 per cent of voters were found to back the Tories - far higher than the 16 per cent supporting Labour. The SNP was well ahead of both parties"

Pong said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/858412017278910464

eh?

Con 42% Lab 31%

???

Not at all good for the tories.

I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388

Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.

Dropping the triple lock was a mistake.

williamglenn said:

AndyJS said:

"Britain Elects @britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42%
LAB: 31%

With Labour on 32% in London? How is that possible?

Looks wrong, I'll say that. I thought the Labour vote was crumbling in Scotland, Wales, the Midlands, Yorkshire? They must be doing very well in the south to compensate, which seems a bit unlikely.

viewcode said:

perdix said:

SquareRoot said:

Disraeli said:

Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

Only if it wants to destroy itself.

Surely English is the principal language in Ireland and Malta?

If I understand correctly (I may not), Ireland nominated Gaelic as its language when it joined, presumably rationalising that as the UK was also a member, it had the luxury to do so.

And the Maltese have Maltese as their language.

For Corbyn to match Miliband's 31% in GB would be extraordinary - hat-eating while running down Whitehall naked extraordinary.

Theuniondivvie said:

Disraeli said:

RobD said:

Disraeli said:

Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

Probably the most common second language.

True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.

c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

Win-win-win!

The most spoken language in Scotland is...?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/brexit-illusions-shattered/

"Our Brexit illusions are about to be shattered"

NeilVW said:

For Corbyn to match Miliband's 31% in GB would be extraordinary - hat-eating while running down Whitehall naked extraordinary.

In which regions is this 31% Labour vote coming from?

Casino_Royale said:

Theuniondivvie said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/858412017278910464

'Exclusive Telegraph ORB poll: Conservatives take the lead over Labour in Scotland'

What an exclusive, stunning revelation.

Conservatives: give Scottish fishermen back control of Scottish fishing waters
SNP: give all our fish to Brussels

Commiserations on the clumsy non sequitur.

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

MarkHopkins said:

Freggles said:

MarkHopkins said:

saddened said:

surbiton said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/brexit-rights-of-eu-nationals-eu27

This is getting nasty.

All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.

Yeah, but that would mean the EU treating us as equals.

Which seems to be a problem for them.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOL

"Opt out" and "rebate" not part of your vocabulary then?

Until TMay, we had no-one the calibre of Thatcher.

It's a shame we're leaving then. We'll never get to see what she could have done for the country inside the EU.

She did campaign to stay. Unfortunately the British people voted to leave.

True. If she were that good a leader she'd have the country begging to join the Euro by the time she's finished.

Why would a good leader take us into the Euro?

chestnut said:

Did the Telegraph publish a 44-29 ORB poll last week?

http://www.orb-international.com/perch/resources/orb-telegraph-poll-april-22nd-2017.pdf

Interesting, that isn't in the wiki tables.

williamglenn said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/brexit-illusions-shattered/

"Our Brexit illusions are about to be shattered"

... says the EU. How much are they going to have to pay to access our market?

These words from Barnier actually make a good deal of sense:

"The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said it was in Britain’s interests for the EU to be unified, as it would boost the chances of a Brexit deal. “This extraordinary meeting shows the unity of the 27 on a clear line, but this unity is not directed against Britain; I think that it is also in its interest,” he said."

Of course, it is not a guarantee that we shall have a deal, and even less that this will help get a good deal for the UK.

AndyJS said:

NeilVW said:

For Corbyn to match Miliband's 31% in GB would be extraordinary - hat-eating while running down Whitehall naked extraordinary.

In which regions is this 31% Labour vote coming from?

That's the bit which really doesn't make sense.

need tables.

NeilVW said:

viewcode said:

NeilVW said:

viewcode said:

@surbiton @rcs1000
@Pulpstar @NeilVW

Thank you for the discusion of Opinium polls. I note that they are now saying they are weighting by "...past vote weight in addition to...party propensity"

OK, I give up. What is the difference between "weighting by past vote" and "weighting by party propensity"?

Party propensity is an evolution of the party-ID variable used in previous elections where respondents were asked if they identified with a particular party and the sample was then weighted according to pre-defined targets coming from sources such as the British Election Study.
With party propensity, we ask voters how they feel about all of the parties and, from their answers, put together a unique picture of each voter’s view of the whole spectrum of parties. From this we can divide the electorate into groups based on which combination of parties they would or would not consider voting for.

http://opinium.co.uk/a-note-on-methodology/

Thank you. You answered that very quickly. Would you happen to have similar pages for the other pollsters?

No, I just Googled it, like

I laughed out loud, thank you...

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858412614896013338

Well, we all remember how crap our first time was.

It's not their first time, as chestnut's link shows.

Starts to think I might be applying for asylum in Canada after all!

ThreeQuidder said:

Telegraph ORB poll has a NI subsample which, of course, means it's not conducted on the same basis as normal polls, which are GB only.

If their headline figure of 31% Lab is UK not GB, then that's actually better than Miliband...

Theuniondivvie said:

Disraeli said:

RobD said:

Disraeli said:

Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

Probably the most common second language.

True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.

c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

Win-win-win!

In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.

scotslass said:

Calum

The first ever poll to include the dominant party as "others" and to feature graphs which imply the poor second rated party is first. The Telegraph is becoming as big a comic as the Express!

So last weekend it was 12 gains, mid week 8 and now 7. Seems the Tory direction is backwards.

"Some 27 per cent of voters were found to back the Tories - far higher than the 16 per cent supporting Labour. The SNP was well ahead of both parties"

Again we have another example of SCON 2nd being the new 1st mantra ! - FWIW in the words of Abby Lee from Dance Moms - 2nd is actually the biggest loser !!

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/858419166272991232

MTimT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Disraeli said:

RobD said:

Disraeli said:

Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

Probably the most common second language.

True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.

c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

Win-win-win!

In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.

Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:
1) less motivation when English is the global language
2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school

Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Labour source messages in response to tonight's polls with "B******S". Make of that what you will...

Theuniondivvie said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Disraeli said:

RobD said:

Disraeli said:

Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

Probably the most common second language.

True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.

c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

Win-win-win!

The most spoken language in Scotland is...?

Commiserations on the clumsy non sequitur.

I sometimes get the impression that what people really want on these threads is banter and trying to score points off each other, It's often very funny when malcolmg is online, mind you!

RobD said:

A good bit of complacency busting though....

You mean the sight of Corbyn campaigning in Harlow wasn't enough to make you wake up to the threat?

TheWhiteRabbit said:

The polls suggest in the race to drive the Labour Party to oblivion, it's the LibDems nto the Tories that are letting the side down...

To be honest, if the objective of Crosby's campaign is to wipe Labour out, he should try to help the Lib Dems out a bit, in a reversal of 2015.

Pong said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/858412017278910464

eh?

Con 42% Lab 31%

???

Not good for the tories.

I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388

Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.

Still a long way to go so to have made 10x profit is a great result.
But is that how it works with spread betting? I would have thought what you have done is locked in no losses, but will gain if it is between 378 and 388?

Those spread betting on this election are very brave IMO... There are a number of factors suggesting a big result... But very hard to know how those extra Tory votes will be distributed. Plus there's the uncertainty of a potential string of prosecutions and maybe even a targeted lib dem revival.

bigjohnowls said:

calum said:

The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!

Real story Lab closing fast

With their fantastic campaigning that includes Corbyn making a speech with his back to the camera....

Seriously; you're attributing all your hopes and dreams to one poll from a little known organisation; and one that still shows Labour being shafted...

I would have thought having all polling fluctuating with Labour in a 24-31% box, and the Tories in a 42-50% range, would be perfectly normal across a six week campaign.

The core message is the same: UKIP collapsing to the Tories, a decent Tory recovery in Scotland, and serious disillusionment, with some switching, amongst the Labour core. Core Remainers flirting with the Liberal Democrats, but refusing to smell Tim Farron's spaniel.

The numbers on the day will be what they'll be. Some pollsters will get very close, and be lauded for it, others won't and be laughed at.

Most of that praise/criticism will be exaggerated.

ThreeQuidder said:

Telegraph ORB poll has a NI subsample which, of course, means it's not conducted on the same basis as normal polls, which are GB only.

Important question: is that still true? I know it *was* true, but during the EU ref a lot of UK-wide polls came out and I was wondering if they'd kept up the habit.

Casino_Royale said:

I would have thought having all polling fluctuating with Labour in a 24-31% box, and the Tories in a 42-50% range, would be perfectly normal across a six week campaign.

The core message is the same: UKIP collapsing to the Tories, a decent Tory recovery in Scotland, and serious disillusionment, with some switching, amongst the Labour core. Core Remainers flirting with the Liberal Democrats, but refusing to smell Tim Farron's spaniel.

The numbers on the day will be what they'll be. Some pollsters will get very close, and be lauded for it, others won't and be laughed at.

Most of that praise/criticism will be exaggerated.

42-50% is Good to Fantastic for the Tories but 24% to 31% is OK to F***** Absymal for Labour.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Casino_Royale said:

I would have thought having all polling fluctuating with Labour in a 24-31% box, and the Tories in a 42-50% range, would be perfectly normal across a six week campaign.

The core message is the same: UKIP collapsing to the Tories, a decent Tory recovery in Scotland, and serious disillusionment, with some switching, amongst the Labour core. Core Remainers flirting with the Liberal Democrats, but refusing to smell Tim Farron's spaniel.

The numbers on the day will be what they'll be. Some pollsters will get very close, and be lauded for it, others won't and be laughed at.

Most of that praise/criticism will be exaggerated.

42-50% is Good to Fantastic for the Tories but 24% to 31% is OK to F***** Absymal for Labour.

The harder question for Labour to answer: how will they break the back of that Tory voting coalition post-Brexit?

Friendly hint: not by doing what they've been doing since 2010, and hoping the electoral cycle does the rest for them.

Forget the polls the boxings on....

So far two Sundays (Post and Mail) are leading on May and pensions- but nary a word on "triple lock".

CarlottaVance said:

Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Labour source messages in response to tonight's polls with "B******S". Make of that what you will...

They think the polls are overstating the Labour share?

viewcode said:

perdix said:

SquareRoot said:

Disraeli said:

Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

Only if it wants to destroy itself.

Surely English is the principal language in Ireland and Malta?

If I understand correctly (I may not), Ireland nominated Gaelic as its language when it joined, presumably rationalising that as the UK was also a member, it had the luxury to do so.

The 90% of Irish who can't go much beyond "Éireann go Brách" are going to struggle at the EU in that case. May they can speak French instead?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Forget the polls the boxings on....

Corbo not out for the count yet...

MTimT said:

Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.

Isn't Preseli the number one target for the Bus Pass Elvis Party?

Ishmael_Z said:

rkrkrk said:

MTimT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Disraeli said:

RobD said:

Disraeli said:

Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

Probably the most common second language.

True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.

c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

Win-win-win!

In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.

Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:
1) less motivation when English is the global language
2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school

The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".

That's funny.

scotslass said:

Arthur_Penny

When rushing to tell us that the Survation sub sample tables "confirm" the Tories at 30% you forgot to mention that they show the SNP (or "others" as the Telegraph would call them) at 50%!!!

True - but I dodn't point out that Labour were on only 13% either.

FF43 said:

viewcode said:

perdix said:

SquareRoot said:

Disraeli said:

Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

Only if it wants to destroy itself.

Surely English is the principal language in Ireland and Malta?

If I understand correctly (I may not), Ireland nominated Gaelic as its language when it joined, presumably rationalising that as the UK was also a member, it had the luxury to do so.

The 90% of Irish who can't go much beyond "Éireann go Brách" are going to struggle at the EU in that case. May they can speak French instead?

Some of them are pretty good in la langue de Beckett...