politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest French polls not quite as good for Macron as they were
Comments
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Factually incorrect, as you'd expect from the Independent and just as barking as the Express.RobD said:
Typical liberal metropolitan elite sneering from the independent.old_labour said:
I do not think the good people of Crathes will be happy having their village hall called a barn.RobD said:
People seem to have short memories. Man of the people Cameron....old_labour said:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/usvsth3m/david-cameron-photos-perfectly-show-54795060 -
Someone from Opinionway estimated that the FN would achieve 20-50 seats at the French legislature.0
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There's also the hot fascist with the familiar surname.foxinsoxuk said:
A large part of her success is because of distancing herself from her own party.HYUFD said:
Certainly and the FN will use it as a springboard for the legislative elections in JunePeter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
Rather like Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives, it is difficult to name another party figure in FN.0 -
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.0 -
Kim jung Le Pen the 3rd?rcs1000 said:
There's also the hot fascist with the familiar surname.foxinsoxuk said:
A large part of her success is because of distancing herself from her own party.HYUFD said:
Certainly and the FN will use it as a springboard for the legislative elections in JunePeter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
Rather like Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives, it is difficult to name another party figure in FN.0 -
Think the word you're looking for is error.OUT said:
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.ydoethur said:
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.OUT said:
Like a meeting of the KKKmalcolmg said:
Kim May-Il speaks to party followersold_labour said:OK, it's the Guardian, but ouch!
PM's campaign event in Scottish forest prompts new claims she is hiding
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
You obnoxious fool
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Oh gawd... you'll rue the daysaddened said:
Think the word you're looking for is error.OUT said:
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.ydoethur said:
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.OUT said:
Like a meeting of the KKKmalcolmg said:
Kim May-Il speaks to party followersold_labour said:OK, it's the Guardian, but ouch!
PM's campaign event in Scottish forest prompts new claims she is hiding
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
You obnoxious fool0 -
Corbyn, the iceberg leader https://t.co/qhIxMTlzZD0
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Not really I was fortunate enough for my family to leave the weak members of the herd behind and move from Scotland to England when I was 4.RobD said:
Oh gawd... you'll rue the daysaddened said:
Think the word you're looking for is error.OUT said:
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.ydoethur said:
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.OUT said:
Like a meeting of the KKKmalcolmg said:
Kim May-Il speaks to party followersold_labour said:OK, it's the Guardian, but ouch!
PM's campaign event in Scottish forest prompts new claims she is hiding
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
You obnoxious fool
I understand why the failures at life are bitter.0 -
Have they all died off???AndyJS said:
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.0 -
21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation.ThreeQuidder said:Corbyn, the iceberg leader https://t.co/qhIxMTlzZD
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Macron actually won 25-34 year olds according to exit polls and Melenchon 18-24 year olds, Le Pen won 35-49 and 50-59 year olds and Fillon 60-69 year olds and the over 70sAndyJS said:
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/ipsos-sopra-steria_sociologie-des-electorats_23-avril-2017-21h.pdf
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Your whining at some bloke you don't know on the internet who hasn't even addressed you, and you're talking about failures in life?saddened said:
Not really I was fortunate enough for my family to leave the weak members of the herd behind and move from Scotland to England when I was 4.RobD said:
Oh gawd... you'll rue the daysaddened said:
Think the word you're looking for is error.OUT said:
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.ydoethur said:
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.OUT said:
Like a meeting of the KKKmalcolmg said:
Kim May-Il speaks to party followersold_labour said:OK, it's the Guardian, but ouch!
PM's campaign event in Scottish forest prompts new claims she is hiding
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
You obnoxious fool
I understand why the failures at life are bitter.
Ok.0 -
Have you seen the decline in Stugeon's personal polling since she began to weaponise Brexit as an excuse to hold another Indy Ref?calum said:0 -
Corbyn's personal ratings simply aren't consistent with a vote share anywhere near 30%, are they?FrancisUrquhart said:
21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation.ThreeQuidder said:Corbyn, the iceberg leader https://t.co/qhIxMTlzZD
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Off out now for refreshments, but just a little thought for the night:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/8583866490127319040 -
A very small bet on the first round winner and Macron ahead of PS if I remember which you won on the popular vote at least, how much do I owe you then?rcs1000 said:
Didn't we have a couple of bets on the first round?HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
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UK election holds up EU budget planning;
http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-block-on-eu-spending-infuriates-brussels/-1 -
Don't forget, whatever you say. You're still going to wake up, tomorrow, in the cultural and economic backwater that is Scotland. Feel for you.Theuniondivvie said:
Your whining at some bloke you don't know on the internet who hasn't even addressed you, and you're talking about failures in life?saddened said:
Not really I was fortunate enough for my family to leave the weak members of the herd behind and move from Scotland to England when I was 4.RobD said:
Oh gawd... you'll rue the daysaddened said:
Think the word you're looking for is error.OUT said:
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.ydoethur said:
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.OUT said:
Like a meeting of the KKKmalcolmg said:
Kim May-Il speaks to party followersold_labour said:OK, it's the Guardian, but ouch!
PM's campaign event in Scottish forest prompts new claims she is hiding
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
You obnoxious fool
I understand why the failures at life are bitter.
Ok.0 -
The more interesting question, what proportion of the fans who go to these games voted leave?foxinsoxuk said:Off out now for refreshments, but just a little thought for the night:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/858386649012731904
On a related note, I've thought of a popular policy that Corbyn could go for. Pass a law to make the PL be free to air. It worked for the lady in Argentina.0 -
Scottish geography is obvously not your strong point today Malc.....malcolmg said:LOL
Theresa May Held A Campaign Event In A Village Hall In A Scottish Wood With No Reception
News channels weren't able to show her talking about "strong and stable" leadership this time.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/theresa-may-held-a-campaign-event-in-a-village-hall-in?utm_term=.bxQQmD7aj#.oeDOL5ro4
Press and Journal - As Theresa May heads for Scotland: She writes a message for The P&J0 -
We were told that UKIP was a threat to Labour, now it appears they were all Tories on holiday after all. How does that work?Sean_F said:
The polling bears that out. If Labour is stable, but loads of UKIP supporters go Conservative, then the Conservatives will win big.NickPalmer said:
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.Black_Rook said:<
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.0 -
The "gateway drug" theory. Lab -> UKIP -> Con.logical_song said:
We were told that UKIP was a threat to Labour, now it appears they were all Tories on holiday after all. How does that work?Sean_F said:
The polling bears that out. If Labour is stable, but loads of UKIP supporters go Conservative, then the Conservatives will win big.NickPalmer said:
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.Black_Rook said:<
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.0 -
Gateway drug theory. They broke a habit of a lifetime by not voting Labour last time. Now voting Tory doesn't seem all that bad.logical_song said:
We were told that UKIP was a threat to Labour, now it appears they were all Tories on holiday after all. How does that work?Sean_F said:
The polling bears that out. If Labour is stable, but loads of UKIP supporters go Conservative, then the Conservatives will win big.NickPalmer said:
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.Black_Rook said:<
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.
Doesn't mean this is happening, mind.0 -
IIRC if those aged 65+ hadn't voted it would have been Le Pen/Mélenchon.HYUFD said:
Macron actually won 25-34 year olds according to exit polls and Melenchon 18-24 year olds, Le Pen won 35-49 and 50-59 year olds and Fillon 60-69 year olds and the over 70sAndyJS said:
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/ipsos-sopra-steria_sociologie-des-electorats_23-avril-2017-21h.pdf0 -
This is probably the best guide until the local results:surbiton said:My reading of the polls now is that Labour voters who may not be enamoured of Corbyn, does not want to give the Tories a massive majority.
I am not quite sure about the Lib Dem numbers. Surely past vote maybe misleading since they crashed from 23% to 8%. So there are 15% of the population, who in the very recent past, voted Lib Dem and not being taken into account as such.
The locals would be a good indicator. Bettors better be ready around 1 am on Friday morning.
Britain Elects @britainelects Apr 26
Our polling average update:
Con: 45.5% (+7.7)
Lab: 25.7% (-5.5)
LDem: 10.8% (+2.7)
UKIP: 8.7% (-4.2)
Grn: 3.4% (-0.4)
Chgs. w/ GE2015.0 -
Though mainly because of 18-24 year oldsbrokenwheel said:
IIRC if 65+ hadn't voted it would have been Le Pen/Mélenchon.HYUFD said:
Macron actually won 25-34 year olds according to exit polls and Melenchon 18-24 year olds, Le Pen won 35-49 and 50-59 year olds and Fillon 60-69 year olds and the over 70sAndyJS said:
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/ipsos-sopra-steria_sociologie-des-electorats_23-avril-2017-21h.pdf0 -
I think he's going to have a tough job. Whoever forms the next French Government will have a very tough job.foxinsoxuk said:
If we can ignore the 48%, then the French can ignore the 40%.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
Though I think Macron will work out pretty well for France, and in 5 years their economy will have significantly recovered. I don't think the next presidential election will be fought on the same ground, and the major parties will get their act together.
But not as tough as whoever forms the next UK Government.0 -
Obvious conclusion: some of the Ukip vote were ex-Tories and have gone back home. Others were ex-Labour and, having gone over to Ukip, have found the journey to the Tories rather easier than they might otherwise have done.logical_song said:
We were told that UKIP was a threat to Labour, now it appears they were all Tories on holiday after all. How does that work?Sean_F said:
The polling bears that out. If Labour is stable, but loads of UKIP supporters go Conservative, then the Conservatives will win big.NickPalmer said:
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.Black_Rook said:<
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.
So now, instead of Ukip challenging Labour, their voters are going to help the Tories challenge Labour instead. In which capacity, they ought to be somewhat more effective.0 -
Oh God, we aren't going to have to endure relentless posts bending facts and pointing out that it was only old, rich pensioners that won it for Macron are we?!rcs1000 said:
Have they all died off???AndyJS said:
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.0 -
I sincerely doubt we're going to get the internationalists wishing the old would all die off this time though.isam said:
Oh God, we aren't going to have to endure relentless posts bending facts and pointing out that it was only old, rich pensioners that won it for Macron are we?!rcs1000 said:
Have they all died off???AndyJS said:
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.0 -
chestnut said:
UK election holds up EU budget planning;
http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-block-on-eu-spending-infuriates-brussels/
After the Italians held it up in November.....chestnut said:UK election holds up EU budget planning;
http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-block-on-eu-spending-infuriates-brussels/0 -
Opinium have now published their proper data tables.
http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/0 -
A charity supported by Jeremy Corbyn hosted an anti-Semitic speaker who has accused Jews of exploiting the Holocaust and called Zionism 'parallel to Nazism'.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4457354/Jeremy-Corbyn-charity-hosts-anti-Semitic-speaker.html0 -
If no one had voted we would have been in real trouble !brokenwheel said:
IIRC if those aged 65+ hadn't voted it would have been Le Pen/Mélenchon.HYUFD said:
Macron actually won 25-34 year olds according to exit polls and Melenchon 18-24 year olds, Le Pen won 35-49 and 50-59 year olds and Fillon 60-69 year olds and the over 70sAndyJS said:
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/ipsos-sopra-steria_sociologie-des-electorats_23-avril-2017-21h.pdf0 -
Whatt time can we expect you gov.???0
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A Conservative government will also secure a better future for Scottish fishermen by leaving the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy. There is clear difference here between the Conservatives and our SNP opponents. Nationalist MPs are all fully signed up to the SNP’s policy of re-joining the EU as a full member. That means taking back no control over our waters and keeping all the power in Brussels. In contrast, Conservatives will take the UK out of the CFP for good.fitalass said:
Scottish geography is obvously not your strong point today Malc.....malcolmg said:LOL
Theresa May Held A Campaign Event In A Village Hall In A Scottish Wood With No Reception
News channels weren't able to show her talking about "strong and stable" leadership this time.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/theresa-may-held-a-campaign-event-in-a-village-hall-in?utm_term=.bxQQmD7aj#.oeDOL5ro4
Press and Journal - As Theresa May heads for Scotland: She writes a message for The P&J
Most robust statement on fisheries I've read!0 -
The odd thing about the Opinium tables is that Lab and Con retain a similar proportion of their 2015 vote, and furthermore, UKIP retain a higher proportion than either of those two! This certainly doesn't chime with other recent polls.0
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So Macron == Brexit?isam said:
Oh God, we aren't going to have to endure relentless posts bending facts and pointing out that it was only old, rich pensioners that won it for Macron are we?!rcs1000 said:
Have they all died off???AndyJS said:
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.0 -
@surbiton @rcs1000
@Pulpstar @NeilVW
Thank you for the discusion of Opinium polls. I note that they are now saying they are weighting by "...past vote weight in addition to...party propensity"
OK, I give up. What is the difference between "weighting by past vote" and "weighting by party propensity"?0 -
Sadly, only been as far north as Leuchars by train.old_labour said:May's event was very near to the Royal Deeside Railway.
http://www.deeside-railway.co.uk/0 -
Bet365 have LibDems 10 and under at 14's. A better price and an extra seat covered too.Alistair said:
Betfair have been allowing me way more than others on here have been allowed on.Ishmael_Z said:
Betfair limiting under 10 at 10/1 to a fiver. Why they do that rather than shorten the odds is a mystery to me.Alistair said:
The Lib Dem seat bands market was insane and seemingly still is.ThreeQuidder said:
I like the sound of that. I've chucked £20 at that, split for a £39.60 return if either part comes in.rcs1000 said:Betting post:
Can I suggest a double:
Liberal Democrats under 10, at 11-1 with SkyBet.
Also, Liberal Democrats to hold Southport, 11/8 with SkyBet.
I think it's perfectly possible you win both, and I think it's unlikely that the LDs get much into double figures if they're not holding Southport.0 -
71% of Labour voters choose Corbyn as best PM. Is this an improvement ? May 84%.NeilVW said:Opinium have now published their proper data tables.
http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/0 -
It is what it is, or S.O.C.K.S, as they say in Spain.rcs1000 said:
So Macron == Brexit?isam said:
Oh God, we aren't going to have to endure relentless posts bending facts and pointing out that it was only old, rich pensioners that won it for Macron are we?!rcs1000 said:
Have they all died off???AndyJS said:
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.0 -
Did you log in with the wrong I.D.?saddened said:
Think the word you're looking for is error.OUT said:
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.ydoethur said:
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.OUT said:
Like a meeting of the KKKmalcolmg said:
Kim May-Il speaks to party followersold_labour said:OK, it's the Guardian, but ouch!
PM's campaign event in Scottish forest prompts new claims she is hiding
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
You obnoxious fool0 -
Party propensity is an evolution of the party-ID variable used in previous elections where respondents were asked if they identified with a particular party and the sample was then weighted according to pre-defined targets coming from sources such as the British Election Study.viewcode said:
With party propensity, we ask voters how they feel about all of the parties and, from their answers, put together a unique picture of each voter’s view of the whole spectrum of parties. From this we can divide the electorate into groups based on which combination of parties they would or would not consider voting for.
http://opinium.co.uk/a-note-on-methodology/0 -
More interesting than you know. Post the EU ref the pollsters were entranced by the fact that yhe electorate were splitting on liberal/authoratative axis. There was speculation that they would use it as a weight in the 2020 election.williamglenn said:Interesting YouGov question:
0 -
Banter isn't your strong point is it.OUT said:
Did you log in with the wrong I.D.?saddened said:
Think the word you're looking for is error.OUT said:
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.ydoethur said:
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.OUT said:
Like a meeting of the KKKmalcolmg said:
Kim May-Il speaks to party followersold_labour said:OK, it's the Guardian, but ouch!
PM's campaign event in Scottish forest prompts new claims she is hiding
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
You obnoxious fool
Tedious bore.0 -
Party propensity would indicate it is done by panel, I think. The party that you normally support.viewcode said:0 -
The cross-tabs are very peculiar indeed, aren't they? And I've no idea how they've managed to get the Tories up to 47% on such a modest total of crossovers.NeilVW said:The odd thing about the Opinium tables is that Lab and Con retain a similar proportion of their 2015 vote, and furthermore, UKIP retain a higher proportion than either of those two! This certainly doesn't chime with other recent polls.
0 -
That extra seat might be very important.paulyork64 said:
Bet365 have LibDems 10 and under at 14's. A better price and an extra seat covered too.Alistair said:
Betfair have been allowing me way more than others on here have been allowed on.Ishmael_Z said:
Betfair limiting under 10 at 10/1 to a fiver. Why they do that rather than shorten the odds is a mystery to me.Alistair said:
The Lib Dem seat bands market was insane and seemingly still is.ThreeQuidder said:
I like the sound of that. I've chucked £20 at that, split for a £39.60 return if either part comes in.rcs1000 said:Betting post:
Can I suggest a double:
Liberal Democrats under 10, at 11-1 with SkyBet.
Also, Liberal Democrats to hold Southport, 11/8 with SkyBet.
I think it's perfectly possible you win both, and I think it's unlikely that the LDs get much into double figures if they're not holding Southport.0 -
We went on the west Somerset railway today.... minehead to Bishops lydeard . A lovely daySunil_Prasannan said:
Sadly, only been as far north as Leuchars by train.old_labour said:May's event was very near to the Royal Deeside Railway.
http://www.deeside-railway.co.uk/0 -
Thank you. You answered that very quickly. Would you happen to have similar pages for the other pollsters?NeilVW said:
Party propensity is an evolution of the party-ID variable used in previous elections where respondents were asked if they identified with a particular party and the sample was then weighted according to pre-defined targets coming from sources such as the British Election Study.viewcode said:
With party propensity, we ask voters how they feel about all of the parties and, from their answers, put together a unique picture of each voter’s view of the whole spectrum of parties. From this we can divide the electorate into groups based on which combination of parties they would or would not consider voting for.
http://opinium.co.uk/a-note-on-methodology/0 -
Bit fickle aren't they?Black_Rook said:
Obvious conclusion: some of the Ukip vote were ex-Tories and have gone back home. Others were ex-Labour and, having gone over to Ukip, have found the journey to the Tories rather easier than they might otherwise have done.logical_song said:
We were told that UKIP was a threat to Labour, now it appears they were all Tories on holiday after all. How does that work?Sean_F said:
The polling bears that out. If Labour is stable, but loads of UKIP supporters go Conservative, then the Conservatives will win big.NickPalmer said:
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.Black_Rook said:<
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.
So now, instead of Ukip challenging Labour, their voters are going to help the Tories challenge Labour instead. In which capacity, they ought to be somewhat more effective.0 -
Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
0 -
Probably the most common second language.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?0 -
Agreed. I still have a wee chuckle when I remember Angus Robertson's wee twitter panic when the Russian Naval fleet parked up in the Moray Firth during bad weather. Even after they left he was complaining about them fly tipping.HaroldO said:
Ok. I know the standard of UK politician in the UK is bad, but seriously?surbiton said:
Angus Robertson would indeed my choice to lead Scotland. They do have good and capable leaders.foxinsoxuk said:
Neither. I think Angus Robertson would make an excellent Prime Minister of the Progressive Alliance if Farron didn't get the gig.Jason said:
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?foxinsoxuk said:
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.Black_Rook said:
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.old_labour said:OK, it's the Guardian, but ouch!
PM's campaign event in Scottish forest prompts new claims she is hiding
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?0 -
Only if it wants to destroy itself.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?0 -
Surely English is the principal language in Ireland and Malta?SquareRoot said:
Only if it wants to destroy itself.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
0 -
Ireland.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?0 -
Currently understood by 51% of EU citizens.RobD said:
Probably the most common second language.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?0 -
Dr P - I 'yellow penned' Ely to Kings Lynn last week, and Ely to Stansted Airport the week before...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sadly, only been as far north as Leuchars by train.old_labour said:May's event was very near to the Royal Deeside Railway.
http://www.deeside-railway.co.uk/
I hadn't been east of Peterborough by train in the previous 30 years.0 -
Only an hour to go before the big tear up.0
-
Are those two women in Hartlepool having a rematch?FrancisUrquhart said:Only an hour to go before the big tear up.
0 -
True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, becauseRobD said:
Probably the most common second language.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.0 -
Disraeli said:
Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
English is the international language (whether they like us or not).
0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/brexit-rights-of-eu-nationals-eu27
This is getting nasty.0 -
It's exactly the same as Tusk's letter, and it is an improvement upon "no trade talks until the exit deal is done"surbiton said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/brexit-rights-of-eu-nationals-eu27
This is getting nasty.0 -
c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.Disraeli said:
True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, becauseRobD said:
Probably the most common second language.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
Win-win-win!0 -
No, but it'll be interesting to see how close it is with voters in the 18-60 bracket.rcs1000 said:
Have they all died off???AndyJS said:
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.HYUFD said:Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.0 -
The results also confirm the Tory lead in Wales and the 30% in Scotland.surbiton said:
71% of Labour voters choose Corbyn as best PM. Is this an improvement ? May 84%.NeilVW said:Opinium have now published their proper data tables.
http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/0 -
surbiton said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/brexit-rights-of-eu-nationals-eu27
This is getting nasty.
It seems like it. Many Britons will simply respond "F*** Tusk".
Hard Brexit seems a likely probability now.
0 -
No, I just Googled it, likeviewcode said:
Thank you. You answered that very quickly. Would you happen to have similar pages for the other pollsters?NeilVW said:
Party propensity is an evolution of the party-ID variable used in previous elections where respondents were asked if they identified with a particular party and the sample was then weighted according to pre-defined targets coming from sources such as the British Election Study.viewcode said:
With party propensity, we ask voters how they feel about all of the parties and, from their answers, put together a unique picture of each voter’s view of the whole spectrum of parties. From this we can divide the electorate into groups based on which combination of parties they would or would not consider voting for.
http://opinium.co.uk/a-note-on-methodology/
0 -
-
All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.surbiton said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/brexit-rights-of-eu-nationals-eu27
This is getting nasty.0 -
A good vote winner for Labour might be to rule out any further rise in the State Pension Age.Perhaps they could even go so far as to reverse the acceleration of the later Pension Age announced by Osborne in 2011 – and revert to the timetable previously announced by the Brown Government.
0 -
saddened said:
All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.surbiton said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/brexit-rights-of-eu-nationals-eu27
This is getting nasty.
Yeah, but that would mean the EU treating us as equals.
Which seems to be a problem for them.
0 -
Oh, that's superb.chestnut said:UK election holds up EU budget planning;
http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-block-on-eu-spending-infuriates-brussels/0 -
Amusing how it is reported. SCON 27, SLAB 16, Other 57calum said:0 -
Bizarrely, it might reinforce its standing. Before, English could not be adopted as the defacto lingua franca without the accusation of favoring the UK. Now, it can be freely used.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?0 -
justin124 said:
A good vote winner for Labour might be to rule out any further rise in the State Pension Age.Perhaps they could even go so far as to reverse the acceleration of the later Pension Age announced by Osborne in 2011 – and revert to the timetable previously announced by the Brown Government.
Paid for how? A tax on turnips?
0 -
The headline figures from that poll are:
Con 42
Lab 31
LD 10
UKIP 8
So much tighter than other polls suggest!0 -
LOOOOOOOOOOOOLMarkHopkins said:saddened said:
All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.surbiton said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/brexit-rights-of-eu-nationals-eu27
This is getting nasty.
Yeah, but that would mean the EU treating us as equals.
Which seems to be a problem for them.
"Opt out" and "rebate" not part of your vocabulary then?0 -
Colouring NI red on the basis that 8% of voters there support Labour is a bit punchy.calum said:0 -
Tonight's ORB
42
31
TMICIPM0 -
Apologies if posted already
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/amp/0 -
That depends on what they ask for and what we want.saddened said:
All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.surbiton said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/brexit-rights-of-eu-nationals-eu27
This is getting nasty.
The hard reality is that most of the 27 are irrelevant to our expat issue.
Nearly 80% of our expats are in just half a dozen nations.
0 -
Con 42% Lab 31% LD 10% UKIP 8 % in @ORB_Int poll, too much analysis is given to the the subsamples in the write up
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/0 -
'Exclusive Telegraph ORB poll: Conservatives take the lead over Labour in Scotland'calum said:
What an exclusive, stunning revelation.0 -
That ORB headline lead of 11 couldn't be more convenient for the Telegraph. I expect it to widen0
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It will be interesting to see the letter Juncker wants us to sign up to but thinks we won't.saddened said:
All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.surbiton said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/brexit-rights-of-eu-nationals-eu27
This is getting nasty.0 -
And it's apparently Con 6, Lab 8 in Northern IrelandRobD said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/0 -
Freggles said:
LOOOOOOOOOOOOLMarkHopkins said:saddened said:
All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.surbiton said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/brexit-rights-of-eu-nationals-eu27
This is getting nasty.
Yeah, but that would mean the EU treating us as equals.
Which seems to be a problem for them.
"Opt out" and "rebate" not part of your vocabulary then?
Until TMay, we had no-one the calibre of Thatcher.
0 -
If I understand correctly (I may not), Ireland nominated Gaelic as its language when it joined, presumably rationalising that as the UK was also a member, it had the luxury to do so.perdix said:
Surely English is the principal language in Ireland and Malta?SquareRoot said:
Only if it wants to destroy itself.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?0 -
LONDON, LONDON!!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/
21st Century Socialism going down a treat0 -
Not really. Neither the dominant faction in the Conservative Party nor pretty much anybody in the Labour Party was representing strong Euroscepticism or social conservatism. Now, Theresa May is committed to leading the UK out of the EU, and the Conservatives appeal way more to the patriotic and provincial instincts of a large slice of the old Labour core vote than the Far Left metropolitan faction that has captured the Labour Party. Given also that Ukip is moving further towards a Far Right position, and that many see its mission as having been fulfilled, it's therefore a much easier step for ex-Labour Ukippers - who have already broken with their own former brand loyalty - to complete the journey across to the old enemy.logical_song said:Bit fickle aren't they?
May's nascent combination of a more right-wing approach to issues such as immigration and balancing the budget, and more centrist (perhaps even soft Left) positioning on economic interventionism, quite appeals to many of these ex-Labour defectors. This re-positioning is likely to continue, firstly because Theresa May should emerge from this election with a personal mandate and a very large Parliamentary majority for her manifesto, and secondly because a substantial increase in the proportion of Tory MPs from outside of Southern England will alter the composition of her parliamentary party and, therefore, of the people that it represents, and their views and interests.
IMHO it's not really the voters that have changed after all. It's the parties that have shifted around them.0 -
eh?calum said:
Con 42% Lab 31%
???
Not good for the tories.
I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388
Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.0