politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A week tonight and we have 2017’s first big set of elections

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

Southport LibDem 5/4 looks like value.

I'm on both the Tories and Lib Dems at 5-4 against there now. Which is as clear an indication of value as you'll ever see.

You can get 7/4 Lib Dems with Skybet

Where's this Scottish YouGov we were promised?

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/857693661924077570

If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.

The EU can say what it wants but the DUP is still the largest party in NI and powersharing is the only way forward

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

Southport LibDem 5/4 looks like value.

I'm on both the Tories and Lib Dems at 5-4 against there now. Which is as clear an indication of value as you'll ever see.

Unless you take the 7/4 LibDems that SkyBet are offering right now.

https://twitter.com/sophyridgesky/status/857706941577138176

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/857693661924077570

If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.

The EU can say what it wants but the DUP is still the largest party in NI and powersharing is the only way forward

Its the only peaceful way forward

another_richard said:

Here's a potential VERY longshot.

North Down Con 500/1

Its a very affluent constituency where May might be popular and which the Conservatives nearly won in 1992.

I wonder if May might campaign there with her emphasis on the United Kingdom.

The more I think about it, the more I think that's an excellent tip.

There's a chance the EU's actions, and May's own personal appeal, draws the politics of the UK together very sharply, particularly since the DUP allure has faded.

It's happened for the Conservatives in Wales and Scotland, why not NI too?

TheScreamingEagles said:

I forecast this at conference, and some people said I was talking rubbish, well I fart in your face now.

The Conservative party has embarked upon a fundraising drive among its wealthiest donors with the aim of raising £19m for the general election. The move follows concerns that the party’s income has dipped sharply since the EU referendum because pro-remain donors and friends of David Cameron are keeping their cheque books shut.

A financier and a plumbing magnate who has been hostile to Theresa May are among the party’s former backers who have been asked this week to hand over large sums.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/tories-call-on-wealthy-donors-to-stump-up-19m-general-election-fund#img-1

The Tories can't be that broke, they have just hired Crosby and Messina, who aren't exactly cheap.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I forecast this at conference, and some people said I was talking rubbish, well I fart in your face now.

The Conservative party has embarked upon a fundraising drive among its wealthiest donors with the aim of raising £19m for the general election. The move follows concerns that the party’s income has dipped sharply since the EU referendum because pro-remain donors and friends of David Cameron are keeping their cheque books shut.

A financier and a plumbing magnate who has been hostile to Theresa May are among the party’s former backers who have been asked this week to hand over large sums.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/tories-call-on-wealthy-donors-to-stump-up-19m-general-election-fund#img-1

The Tories can't be that broke, they have just hired Crosby and Messina, who aren't exactly cheap.

They may have bought the caviar, but they can't afford the drinks, or any other meal for the rest of the month.

Scott_P said:

... "Theresa May accuses every EU country of ganging up on Britain over Brexit" ...

Um... The EU27 are simply ensuring Brexit means Brexit. Mrs May should approve.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The YouGov tonight is a Scottish one, not a GB wide one. It should appear on The Times website just after midnight, but I'm at the cinema, so won't be covering it.

Well, I'm not staying up for that.

Fux sake. What time do they call that?

Cyan said:

Nerd heaven: "Marine Le Pen can breach her glass ceiling: the drastic effect of differentiated abstention" by Serge Galam.

Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".

Latest polling has around 40% of Melenchon voters abstaining in the runoff, 30% of Hamon voters and 30% of Macron voters, Macron only wins more than 50% of first round Hamon voters
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Much as I would like to contribute to tonight's discussion, I see it has deteriorated into the Dad's Army episode of www.brexiteerswanking.com again, so I shall confine myself to passing on my condolences to Sunil and Murali when I finish work later tonight.

5 Live say BoJo's sister joins LDs

scotslass said:

The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country.

ROFL

Scott_P said:

scotslass said:

The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country.

ROFL

If it is rock solid, doesn't that imply it hasn't changed..

glw said:

It's not complicated, it means she doesn't have to worry about rebels.

The EU were never worried about her rebels

https://twitter.com/wikiguido/status/857537272815734784

I'm sorry, you think SLAB is going to remain the largest party in Glasgow? Not A Chance.

scotslass said:

saltire

What tosh. I have been canvassing in both Aberdeen and the shire. The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country. This won't be uniform perhaps 15 per cent in the city and 5 per cent in Aberdeenshire.. What you are pciking up is a much more assertive Tory support which is vigorous indeed offensive in its attitude.

It is also - thank God - a minority.

I wouldn't describe the anti-SNP thing a just something you get from the Tories. It is from all other parties (except the odd Green voter that you come across). Yes the SNP vote will be up across most of the country, but I think that in the more rural or indeed the more affluent areas (Basically low Labour vote areas) I think that it will not be up by very much at all.
I would also suggest the anti-SNPness you get from Tories is not any different in how vigorous it is to the anti-Toryness you get from Nationalists.

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

ThreeQuidder said:

FPT:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.

Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

Currently UK real wages are falling again.

The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.

It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd

Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.

It is worth remembering that it wasn't always like that. In the early 2000s, Germany was the sick man of the Eurozone, laden down with reunification bills and an inflexible labour market. Under Schroeder and Haartz, they liberalised the Labour market, and the rest - they say - is history.

williamglenn said:

Northampton South MP David Mackintosh standing down over a local finance scandal from his time leading the council.

Just as well

TheScreamingEagles said:

I forecast this at conference, and some people said I was talking rubbish, well I fart in your face now.

The Conservative party has embarked upon a fundraising drive among its wealthiest donors with the aim of raising £19m for the general election. The move follows concerns that the party’s income has dipped sharply since the EU referendum because pro-remain donors and friends of David Cameron are keeping their cheque books shut.

A financier and a plumbing magnate who has been hostile to Theresa May are among the party’s former backers who have been asked this week to hand over large sums.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/tories-call-on-wealthy-donors-to-stump-up-19m-general-election-fund#img-1

The rich will cough up. £19m is small beer.

Casino_Royale said:

another_richard said:

Here's a potential VERY longshot.

North Down Con 500/1

Its a very affluent constituency where May might be popular and which the Conservatives nearly won in 1992.

I wonder if May might campaign there with her emphasis on the United Kingdom.

The more I think about it, the more I think that's an excellent tip.

There's a chance the EU's actions, and May's own personal appeal, draws the politics of the UK together very sharply, particularly since the DUP allure has faded.

It's happened for the Conservatives in Wales and Scotland, why not NI too?

Possibly elsewhere, but Lady Hermon is very safe.

williamglenn said:

Northampton South MP David Mackintosh standing down over a local finance scandal from his time leading the council.

Sean_F said:

Just as well

This is an incredibly convoluted and long-running saga but it relates to loans given to Northampton Town FC and it's former owner who was at one point being investigated by the police.

Not sure what actually came of the police inquiry?

Ally_B said:

Scott_P said:

glw said:

Yes the EU is backing up May's reasoning for calling a general election.

No they really aren't. We did this earlier. The EU doesn't care how big Tezza's majority is. It makes zero difference to the negotiations.

I wonder how this will play out on the Election as people start to see the implications arising from the cesspit of lies the Leave campaign peddled. The political and financial costs are starting to become apparent to more than just the educated amongst us on this Board and there are another six weeks of job losses and negative press to come. I think Tory vote expectations have peaked and it will be downhill from here until Polling day.

Six weeks of job losses and negative press?

For certain, or are you just hopeful?

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The YouGov tonight is a Scottish one, not a GB wide one. It should appear on The Times website just after midnight, but I'm at the cinema, so won't be covering it.

Not made the front page? Disappointing.

https://twitter.com/TimesPictures/status/857708061292711936

Do they have the same front page UK-wide?

Sean_F said:

The rich will cough up.

Anyone earning over £70k.

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I forecast this at conference, and some people said I was talking rubbish, well I fart in your face now.

The Conservative party has embarked upon a fundraising drive among its wealthiest donors with the aim of raising £19m for the general election. The move follows concerns that the party’s income has dipped sharply since the EU referendum because pro-remain donors and friends of David Cameron are keeping their cheque books shut.

A financier and a plumbing magnate who has been hostile to Theresa May are among the party’s former backers who have been asked this week to hand over large sums.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/tories-call-on-wealthy-donors-to-stump-up-19m-general-election-fund#img-1

The rich will cough up. £19m is small beer.

Tories nailed on. I'd keep my money in the bank.
Unless their buying a House of Lords seat.

So why are Labour only 1/9 to hold Brent Central when they're 1/200 in various other London shitholes ?

Is there some thick MP factor being taken into consideration ?

Perhaps so as Labour are only 1/25 in Tottenham.

nunu said:

Had no idea the majority is so small here:

https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/857701068632993795

Fancy if Tony Blair's former constituency went Tory...

glw said:

Scott_P said:

glw said:

Yes the EU is backing up May's reasoning for calling a general election.

No they really aren't. We did this earlier. The EU doesn't care how big Tezza's majority is. It makes zero difference to the negotiations.

It's not complicated, it means she doesn't have to worry about rebels.

It is complicated for some it seems but it is really as simple as you say.

Saltire said:

HaroldO said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

scotslass said:

saltire

What tosh. I have been canvassing in both Aberdeen and the shire. The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country. This won't be uniform perhaps 15 per cent in the city and 5 per cent in Aberdeenshire.. What you are pciking up is a much more assertive Tory support which is vigorous indeed offensive in its attitude.

It is also - thank God - a minority.

Offensive in its attitude is in the SNP dna

Something I have noticed with the SNP over the last three-four years is that they are a very strong political entity, but an awful governing one. They are good at getting power but then completely fail to wield it, they just look for more power and neglect the areas they can already control. This leaves them in a permanent state of revolution, but if this tide is turned and they begin to lose ground it would be interesting to see what happens next.

The problem for the SNP is it quite a broad coalition from the Socialist to the Tartan Tories. What this means is that when they are a position to make decisions it is hard for them to do anything too radical without upsetting a large section of their own party supporters. Therefore what seems to be their solution at the moment is to sound left of centre but, economically at least, be more right of centre. Mainly it means don't do anything unless they have to.

Which completely explains the last year in Holyrood. If they do lose some MP's then they are rebuffed on Brexit to an extent, this leaves Nicole having to do her actual day job whilst having Salmond blatantly undermining her in London.

HaroldO said:

GIN1138 said:

nunu said:

Had no idea the majority is so small here:

https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/857701068632993795

Fancy if Tony Blair's former constituency went Tory...

A lot more women making their way into seats this time, will go a long way to balancing the Tory party to where it should be.

Seems the Conservatives did actually hold Sedgefield once... Way back in 1931.

Blair had a majority of 25,000 there in 1997!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedgefield_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Scotland's population rises to 5,404,700. - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39730739

This is quite staggering:

nunu said:

Had no idea the majority is so small here:

https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/857701068632993795

The majority almost halved in the by-election after Blair quit, and has been gently sliding downwards since.

Sedgefield is Conservative target number 87 at this election, with a Labour majority of 17.67% over the second place Conservatives. Ukip secured 16.6% of the popular vote at the last General Election.

If enough of those Ukip voters stick with their party, or sit on their hands out of enduring dislike of the Tories, then the Labour candidate should be safe. If they don't then it's possible for it to fall. Electoral Calculus currently computes the chances of the two parties of taking the seat as Labour 53%, Conservative 44%, but that feels a little too kind to the Tories! It estimates the EU referendum vote in Sedgefield at 60% Leave.

HaroldO

Double Tosh. The SNP have been by a light year the most successful Government in these islands over the last ten years which is why they still lead in the polls after a decade in Government.

Public services in Scotland are in infinitely better shape than south of the border and I speak as someone whose work pattern means I use both. Believe me no-one would use the national health service in England if they had the option of using it in Scotland - for a start you would have a 15 per cent chance of being seen in A@E within 4 hours.

Lastly if you look at what Salmond said yesterday on the radio at 4 pm it is IDENTICAL to what Nicola Sturgeon said while campaigning at 9 am. Try to rise above the nonsence in the unionist media. There is and never has been a divergence between Sturgeon and Salmond on any substantial area of policy.

HaroldO said:

Saltire said:

HaroldO said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

scotslass said:

saltire

What tosh. I have been canvassing in both Aberdeen and the shire. The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country. This won't be uniform perhaps 15 per cent in the city and 5 per cent in Aberdeenshire.. What you are pciking up is a much more assertive Tory support which is vigorous indeed offensive in its attitude.

It is also - thank God - a minority.

Offensive in its attitude is in the SNP dna

Something I have noticed with the SNP over the last three-four years is that they are a very strong political entity, but an awful governing one. They are good at getting power but then completely fail to wield it, they just look for more power and neglect the areas they can already control. This leaves them in a permanent state of revolution, but if this tide is turned and they begin to lose ground it would be interesting to see what happens next.

The problem for the SNP is it quite a broad coalition from the Socialist to the Tartan Tories. What this means is that when they are a position to make decisions it is hard for them to do anything too radical without upsetting a large section of their own party supporters. Therefore what seems to be their solution at the moment is to sound left of centre but, economically at least, be more right of centre. Mainly it means don't do anything unless they have to.

Which completely explains the last year in Holyrood. If they do lose some MP's then they are rebuffed on Brexit to an extent, this leaves Nicole having to do her actual day job whilst having Salmond blatantly undermining her in London.

I don't think that a vote against the SNP is necessary a vote against Brexit, indeed some of the losses might be to the Libdems. A vote against the SNP is a vote against independence and or incompetence.

Scott_P said:

@JananGanesh: Eurosceptic line is that EU ignores national democracy *and* that a national democratic mandate will compel the EU to deal fairly.

It isn't my line, mine is that Theresa May knows she has the backing of parliament and can tell them where to get off if she needs to, which may happen at times during the "negotiations".

Saltire said:

HaroldO said:

Saltire said:

HaroldO said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

scotslass said:

saltire

What tosh. I have been canvassing in both Aberdeen and the shire. The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country. This won't be uniform perhaps 15 per cent in the city and 5 per cent in Aberdeenshire.. What you are pciking up is a much more assertive Tory support which is vigorous indeed offensive in its attitude.

It is also - thank God - a minority.

Offensive in its attitude is in the SNP dna

Something I have noticed with the SNP over the last three-four years is that they are a very strong political entity, but an awful governing one. They are good at getting power but then completely fail to wield it, they just look for more power and neglect the areas they can already control. This leaves them in a permanent state of revolution, but if this tide is turned and they begin to lose ground it would be interesting to see what happens next.

The problem for the SNP is it quite a broad coalition from the Socialist to the Tartan Tories. What this means is that when they are a position to make decisions it is hard for them to do anything too radical without upsetting a large section of their own party supporters. Therefore what seems to be their solution at the moment is to sound left of centre but, economically at least, be more right of centre. Mainly it means don't do anything unless they have to.

Which completely explains the last year in Holyrood. If they do lose some MP's then they are rebuffed on Brexit to an extent, this leaves Nicole having to do her actual day job whilst having Salmond blatantly undermining her in London.

I don't think that a vote against the SNP is necessary a vote against Brexit, indeed some of the losses might be to the Libdems. A vote against the SNP is a vote against independence and or incompetence.

For Brexit see Indi, apologies I clearly wasn't thinking when I typed.

Nothing new there.

scotslass said:

HaroldO

Double Tosh. The SNP have been by a light year the most successful Government in these islands over the last ten years which is why they still lead in the polls after a decade in Government.

Triple tosh!

You only have to look at the lack of growth in Scotland compared to the rUK, the shortage of teachers and the falling standards in schools along with the various police Scotland fiascos to see the failings of the SNP government.

Sean_F said:

Black_Rook said:

nunu said:

Had no idea the majority is so small here:

https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/857701068632993795

The majority almost halved in the by-election after Blair quit, and has been gently sliding downwards since.

Sedgefield is Conservative target number 87 at this election, with a Labour majority of 17.67% over the second place Conservatives. Ukip secured 16.6% of the popular vote at the last General Election.

If enough of those Ukip voters stick with their party, or sit on their hands out of enduring dislike of the Tories, then the Labour candidate should be safe. If they don't then it's possible for it to fall. Electoral Calculus currently computes the chances of the two parties of taking the seat as Labour 53%, Conservative 44%, but that feels a little too kind to the Tories! It estimates the EU referendum vote in Sedgefield at 60% Leave.

The Labour lead has whittled away.

But, Bishop Auckland is the better prospect.

Oh absolutely. Bishop Auckland is Conservative target number 45, with a Labour majority of 8.91% and a 2015 Ukip vote of almost exactly double that size, i.e. 50% of Ukip voters defect and the entire Labour majority is erased. If things carry on as they are then it is quite likely to go: the current probabilities on Electoral Calculus for the winner of this seat are Lab 41%, Con 55%.

scotslass said:

HaroldO

Double Tosh. The SNP have been by a light year the most successful Government in these islands over the last ten years which is why they still lead in the polls after a decade in Government.

Public services in Scotland are in infinitely better shape than south of the border and I speak as someone whose work pattern means I use both. Believe me no-one would use the national health service in England if they had the option of using it in Scotland - for a start you would have a 15 per cent chance of being seen in A@E within 4 hours.

Lastly if you look at what Salmond said yesterday on the radio at 4 pm it is IDENTICAL to what Nicola Sturgeon said while campaigning at 9 am. Try to rise above the nonsence in the unionist media. There is and never has been a divergence between Sturgeon and Salmond on any substantial area of policy.

Do you believe that or are you being comically over the top?

The education and healthcare standards are falling, the economy is not growing, the population is ageing, the police are in disarray both over their recent re-org and their new one with the BTP and Salmond and Sturgeon are literally disagreeing with each other at the same time at different ends of the country. Have some humility for fucks sake.

Also, my work sponsored BUPA just kicked in so the NHS doesn't mean much to me any more (acts smugly then realises he will regret it one day).

Sunil_Prasannan said:

It's been exactly 12 months since Labour had an opinion poll lead.

It's amazing that Corbyn managed to get any poll leads at all IMO.

Jo Swinson is very good on QT. It highlights how much the LDs have suffered from being hollowed out in Westminster.

https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/857720227114749952

valleyboy said:

GIN1138 said:

nunu said:

Had no idea the majority is so small here:

https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/857701068632993795

Fancy if Tony Blair's former constituency went Tory...

It WAS Tory 1983-2007

LOL!

In a huge shock, the Tories are not proving popular with the Oxford audience on QT. LibDems probably on course to gain Oxford West & Abingdon.