Seats they cannot win - that's a lot of seats.... just saying.
Bristol West, Norwich South, are the three top targets and probably have the right potential demographic mix.
Past that Sheffield Central perhaps (Bennett is running there)
Most of the country is impossible for them.
They have not a hope in hell in Norwich South - and to be fair no longer have expectations of making much impact there . I know of Greens who will vote tactically for Clive Lewis to fend off any Tory challenge.
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
What degree are you working towards ?
Just straight Economics.
I hope you didn't have any illusions of being PM? Cos you are missing a couple of subjects there.
I'm playing the long game, there'll be a backlash against posh blokes doing PPE running the country any day now...
Factory workers are lickspittles eh? Which brave new world do you inhabit...
However you do neatly encapsulate the misbegotten bigotry pervading this site ever since the referendum and more so now that the election is up and running. It has all been been ably led by OGH who has been relentlessly trolling his own website customers about brexit.
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
What degree are you working towards ?
Just straight Economics.
I hope you didn't have any illusions of being PM? Cos you are missing a couple of subjects there.
I'm playing the long game, there'll be a backlash against posh blokes doing PPE running the country any day now...
That'll have to wait until after the incoming Torypocalypse, and a period of stabilizing 'people's rule' by a series of executive political committees that will follow for about 70 years.
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
The good doctor is upset that he can no longer hire melting Mediterranean beauties at bottom dollar to gratefully empty his bed pans.
It is a shame, they are excellent nurses, but you are right about the Exodus.
I think it wrong to blame Brexit for the nursing crisis, the devaluation of Sterling and return to growth of the Eurozone does make returning to Iberia attractive, particularly for the Spanish.
We do seem to have recruited some excellent Somali nurses though.
Why do you so want to plunder other countries health systems?
Don't worry, they mostly came here as children via family visas, and trained as nurses locally. Somalis have big families. Now that bursaries are gone, fees for nursing degrees imposed and family allowances restricted I cannot see this as a long term source of staff.
I really wouldn't want to be in the position of needing health or social care in a few years.
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
And for businesses inflation is the same unpleasant brew. It destroys competitiveness, damages industrial relations, undermines investment, and savages profits.
So inflation must go. Ending it cannot be painless. The harsh truth is that if the policy isn’t hurting, it isn’t working.
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
What degree are you working towards ?
Just straight Economics.
I hope you didn't have any illusions of being PM? Cos you are missing a couple of subjects there.
I'm playing the long game, there'll be a backlash against posh blokes doing PPE running the country any day now...
That'll have to wait until after the incoming Torypocalypse, and a period of stabilizing 'people's rule' by a series of executive political committees that will follow for about 70 years.
The regional governors will assume direct control.
A female Iranian football has been kicked out of the national team for playing without a hijab while on a personal trip to Switzerland.
Shiva Amini was on holiday when she took part in a kick-about with a group of men and officials from the Iranian Futsal Federation waded through her social media accounts to find a picture of her playing in a pair of shorts and without a headscarf.
' Shipley, in Bradford, West Yorkshire, has been home to feminist marches, discussion groups and bake sales organised by the informal non-partisan Shipley Feminist Zealots (SFZ) – so called after Davies remarked that “feminist zealots really do want to have their cake and eat it”.
After the snap election was called for 8 June, many voters in Shipley felt mobilised by the opportunity to unseat a man they loathe. After all, Davies won 50% of the vote in 2015, with the Labour candidate coming in second at 31% – a significant gap, but one that feasibly could be closed.
But a spanner was chucked into the works from outside the constituency this week when the Women’s Equality party (WEP) revealed it was fielding a candidate in Shipley to challenge Davies’s seat. The announcement, which on the surface sounds like positive news, came as a surprise to SFZ organisers and provoked anger and frustration from many members of the group, who accused the WEP of hijacking Shipley to make headlines with complete disregard for what its people want. '
' Shipley, in Bradford, West Yorkshire, has been home to feminist marches, discussion groups and bake sales organised by the informal non-partisan Shipley Feminist Zealots (SFZ) – so called after Davies remarked that “feminist zealots really do want to have their cake and eat it”.
After the snap election was called for 8 June, many voters in Shipley felt mobilised by the opportunity to unseat a man they loathe. After all, Davies won 50% of the vote in 2015, with the Labour candidate coming in second at 31% – a significant gap, but one that feasibly could be closed.
But a spanner was chucked into the works from outside the constituency this week when the Women’s Equality party (WEP) revealed it was fielding a candidate in Shipley to challenge Davies’s seat. The announcement, which on the surface sounds like positive news, came as a surprise to SFZ organisers and provoked anger and frustration from many members of the group, who accused the WEP of hijacking Shipley to make headlines with complete disregard for what its people want. '
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
Didn't TSE say YouGov were only polling twice a week this time - once midweek in the Times and once for the Sunday Times? So next would be Saturday evening?
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
' Shipley, in Bradford, West Yorkshire, has been home to feminist marches, discussion groups and bake sales organised by the informal non-partisan Shipley Feminist Zealots (SFZ) – so called after Davies remarked that “feminist zealots really do want to have their cake and eat it”.
After the snap election was called for 8 June, many voters in Shipley felt mobilised by the opportunity to unseat a man they loathe. After all, Davies won 50% of the vote in 2015, with the Labour candidate coming in second at 31% – a significant gap, but one that feasibly could be closed.
But a spanner was chucked into the works from outside the constituency this week when the Women’s Equality party (WEP) revealed it was fielding a candidate in Shipley to challenge Davies’s seat. The announcement, which on the surface sounds like positive news, came as a surprise to SFZ organisers and provoked anger and frustration from many members of the group, who accused the WEP of hijacking Shipley to make headlines with complete disregard for what its people want. '
' Shipley, in Bradford, West Yorkshire, has been home to feminist marches, discussion groups and bake sales organised by the informal non-partisan Shipley Feminist Zealots (SFZ) – so called after Davies remarked that “feminist zealots really do want to have their cake and eat it”.
After the snap election was called for 8 June, many voters in Shipley felt mobilised by the opportunity to unseat a man they loathe. After all, Davies won 50% of the vote in 2015, with the Labour candidate coming in second at 31% – a significant gap, but one that feasibly could be closed.
But a spanner was chucked into the works from outside the constituency this week when the Women’s Equality party (WEP) revealed it was fielding a candidate in Shipley to challenge Davies’s seat. The announcement, which on the surface sounds like positive news, came as a surprise to SFZ organisers and provoked anger and frustration from many members of the group, who accused the WEP of hijacking Shipley to make headlines with complete disregard for what its people want. '
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
And for businesses inflation is the same unpleasant brew. It destroys competitiveness, damages industrial relations, undermines investment, and savages profits.
So inflation must go. Ending it cannot be painless. The harsh truth is that if the policy isn’t hurting, it isn’t working.
Said in 1989 when inflation was about 7%, down from double digits throughout much of the 70s.
Greece has had deflation for most of this decade and hasn't had inflation over 5% apart from in just one year since long before they joined the Euro.
Greece doesn't have a problem with inflation, it has a problem with deflation.
' Shipley, in Bradford, West Yorkshire, has been home to feminist marches, discussion groups and bake sales organised by the informal non-partisan Shipley Feminist Zealots (SFZ) – so called after Davies remarked that “feminist zealots really do want to have their cake and eat it”.
After the snap election was called for 8 June, many voters in Shipley felt mobilised by the opportunity to unseat a man they loathe. After all, Davies won 50% of the vote in 2015, with the Labour candidate coming in second at 31% – a significant gap, but one that feasibly could be closed.
But a spanner was chucked into the works from outside the constituency this week when the Women’s Equality party (WEP) revealed it was fielding a candidate in Shipley to challenge Davies’s seat. The announcement, which on the surface sounds like positive news, came as a surprise to SFZ organisers and provoked anger and frustration from many members of the group, who accused the WEP of hijacking Shipley to make headlines with complete disregard for what its people want. '
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
The number of people on here who regularly get polled, shouldn't that be of slight concern? None of us are exactly normal random members of the public ie ones with a passing interest in political goings on.
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????
There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.
I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.
Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.
Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.
Worth remembering too that wages only measure the income of those who have a job, it doesn't take into account those who are left unemployed.
Italy 2009 unemployment rate 7%; it's now 12%
UK 2009 unemployment rate 6.7%; it's now 4.8%
We've not just found jobs for our own citizens deflating our average wages, our real wages have been deflated by taking on continents poor too. Any comparison is absurd.
If you are a British worker on stagnant or falling wages in Britain then that is little compensation.
When our spending bubble pops, are things going to get better?
It may not feel like it is compensation but you're wrong - if you're a British worker on stagnant wages that's much better than being an Italian unemployed non-worker without wages.
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
It's becoming apparent that there's only room for one union, and the UK has volunteered itself to be sent to the wrecking yard.
Why do you continually ignore that there are nations in Europe that are not part of the EU? Clearly it is possible to survive and thrive outside the EU, if you want to make a case that we are unable to do that, maybe you could try that, rather than acting like not being in the EU is in itself impossible.
' Shipley, in Bradford, West Yorkshire, has been home to feminist marches, discussion groups and bake sales organised by the informal non-partisan Shipley Feminist Zealots (SFZ) – so called after Davies remarked that “feminist zealots really do want to have their cake and eat it”.
After the snap election was called for 8 June, many voters in Shipley felt mobilised by the opportunity to unseat a man they loathe. After all, Davies won 50% of the vote in 2015, with the Labour candidate coming in second at 31% – a significant gap, but one that feasibly could be closed.
But a spanner was chucked into the works from outside the constituency this week when the Women’s Equality party (WEP) revealed it was fielding a candidate in Shipley to challenge Davies’s seat. The announcement, which on the surface sounds like positive news, came as a surprise to SFZ organisers and provoked anger and frustration from many members of the group, who accused the WEP of hijacking Shipley to make headlines with complete disregard for what its people want. '
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????
There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.
I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.
Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.
Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.
Worth remembering too that wages only measure the income of those who have a job, it doesn't take into account those who are left unemployed.
Italy 2009 unemployment rate 7%; it's now 12%
UK 2009 unemployment rate 6.7%; it's now 4.8%
We've not just found jobs for our own citizens deflating our average wages, our real wages have been deflated by taking on continents poor too. Any comparison is absurd.
If you are a British worker on stagnant or falling wages in Britain then that is little compensation.
When our spending bubble pops, are things going to get better?
It may not feel like it is compensation but you're wrong - if you're a British worker on stagnant wages that's much better than being an Italian unemployed non-worker without wages.
Actually, the Italian will be working in the black economy as well. A touch of fraud's ok.
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?
It is almost as if the other EU countries are acting in Union to protect common interests, and protect their members.
I thought they told us a bad relationship with us was not in their interests just as it is not in ours, and yet they have been talking of punishing us, which shows very clearly they want to do more than protect their common interests, they want to harm us. One is reasonable, the other is not, from an organisation whose defenders claim it is the most cultured, enlightened organization on earth, which should include how it treats its rivals, and even its enemies, We are not the latter, we are at most the former, and yet their rhetoric has been beyond that we cannot be seen to benefit from Brexit, it has extended, again, to punishing us.
I've been supportive of every level of scrutiny to be applied to May over the exiting process, but as much as she was and is going to act like the big bad EU is out to get us, no matter what they did, they are clearly very happy to play their part in that little dance, they are posturing for their audience more than seeking a mutually beneficial deal.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
Did they really write a 14 page paper describing differential turnout?
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!
The EU has been pushing for a Hard Brexit as much as anyone, if not more than the Tories - the Tories have more dissenting voices on the matter.
The EU has always been clear and consistent that it will act as one, and that Brexit means Brexit. The EU27 seem to be more keen on hard Brexit than anyone in Britain.
Dave Allen Green of the Jack of Kent blog has just done a very neat precis of their published comments. Worth a read:
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
Did they really write a 14 page paper describing differential turnout?
Yes. And even worse, he doesn't say what he thinks are fair odds!
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?
It is almost as if the other EU countries are acting in Union to protect common interests, and protect their members.
The vote for leave was not made on the basis that the EU would collapse if the UK left. It was made on the basis that the UK would be in control of its borders, money and laws if it left, and so be freer and more prosperous. That is the case regardless of what the EU does or doesn't do, what new crises it encounters or dodges, whether extremists in its midst get 40% of the vote or 50% and whether the euro collapses or hobbles on.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
Did they really write a 14 page paper describing differential turnout?
Yes. And even worse, he doesn't say what he thinks are fair odds!
Here is an abridged version.
If a and b are the turnouts for two candidates and X and Y are the fraction of the electorate who would vote for either candidates, and aX < bY, b wins.
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!
The EU has been pushing for a Hard Brexit as much as anyone, if not more than the Tories - the Tories have more dissenting voices on the matter.
The EU has always been clear and consistent that it will act as one, and that Brexit means Brexit. The EU27 seem to be more keen on hard Brexit than anyone in Britain.
There's an irony there. We perceived the EU as something done to us, when in fact we had enormous influence, and we perceive Brexit as something we've done to Europe, when in fact it's a process over which we have precious little control.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
Did they really write a 14 page paper describing differential turnout?
Yes. And even worse, he doesn't say what he thinks are fair odds!
Marine will get somewhere around 35% to 41% according to the polls that were really quite accurate for the first round. Indeed I think 10 days out they underestimated Macron, and overestimated LePen.
I think the BF 35-40 band is good value at 2.8, and the 30-35% at 8.4.
Didn't TSE say YouGov were only polling twice a week this time - once midweek in the Times and once for the Sunday Times? So next would be Saturday evening?
Yes, that's right.
But the suggestion was that there was a Scotland only YouGov tonight.
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
If the actuaries are retiring people early, no wonder the returns are having to be spread more thinly; the £1.18 back for every pound is for those born 1956-61, who aren't 65 yet.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
Did they really write a 14 page paper describing differential turnout?
Shouldn't that have also been true in R1? Yet she marginally underformed her polls, if anything.
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!
The EU has been pushing for a Hard Brexit as much as anyone, if not more than the Tories - the Tories have more dissenting voices on the matter.
The EU has always been clear and consistent that it will act as one, and that Brexit means Brexit. The EU27 seem to be more keen on hard Brexit than anyone in Britain.
Dave Allen Green of the Jack of Kent blog has just done a very neat precis of their published comments. Worth a read:
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!
The EU has been pushing for a Hard Brexit as much as anyone, if not more than the Tories - the Tories have more dissenting voices on the matter.
The EU has always been clear and consistent that it will act as one, and that Brexit means Brexit. The EU27 seem to be more keen on hard Brexit than anyone in Britain.
Dave Allen Green of the Jack of Kent blog has just done a very neat precis of their published comments. Worth a read:
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!
The EU has been pushing for a Hard Brexit as much as anyone, if not more than the Tories - the Tories have more dissenting voices on the matter.
The EU has always been clear and consistent that it will act as one, and that Brexit means Brexit. The EU27 seem to be more keen on hard Brexit than anyone in Britain.
Dave Allen Green of the Jack of Kent blog has just done a very neat precis of their published comments. Worth a read:
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!
The EU has been pushing for a Hard Brexit as much as anyone, if not more than the Tories - the Tories have more dissenting voices on the matter.
The EU has always been clear and consistent that it will act as one, and that Brexit means Brexit. The EU27 seem to be more keen on hard Brexit than anyone in Britain.
Dave Allen Green of the Jack of Kent blog has just done a very neat precis of their published comments. Worth a read:
Unless I've misread the analysis SNP +3% for the Council elections seems rather low to me does it not?
I think that the SNP vote will increase by more than that in West of Scotland and in some areas I can see them increasing by 10%+ but, and I know that this is based from 2012 votes, in some areas they will flat line or indeed fall back slightly. I would guess 3% is a bit low but not by much. I have spent a fair bit of time canvassing in different parts of P&K over the last 3 months and there is a lot of anti-SNP feeling about with a number of SNP supporters who are much less enthused than before or indeed switching to other parties. It would be a bit of a surprise to see them holding onto the council as the minority party (20/41 at the moment)
He said believed the British vote to leave the EU will “prove historically to be a huge error”.
“I hope the US government will support and work with the Irish Government and leaders of the EU to achieve an outcome that respects the gains made in recent years,”
Comments
I really wouldn't want to be in the position of needing health or social care in a few years.
And for businesses inflation is the same unpleasant brew. It destroys competitiveness, damages industrial relations, undermines investment, and savages profits.
So inflation must go. Ending it cannot be painless. The harsh truth is that if the policy isn’t hurting, it isn’t working.
Theres definitely word on one of them I forget which
Shiva Amini was on holiday when she took part in a kick-about with a group of men and officials from the Iranian Futsal Federation waded through her social media accounts to find a picture of her playing in a pair of shorts and without a headscarf.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4452544/Iran-bans-female-footballer-ditching-hijab-holiday.html
So jezza about that money you took from the Iranians...
Attention, all planets of the solar federation.
Attention, all planets of the solar federation.
We have assumed control.
We have assumed control.
We have assumed control.
' Shipley, in Bradford, West Yorkshire, has been home to feminist marches, discussion groups and bake sales organised by the informal non-partisan Shipley Feminist Zealots (SFZ) – so called after Davies remarked that “feminist zealots really do want to have their cake and eat it”.
After the snap election was called for 8 June, many voters in Shipley felt mobilised by the opportunity to unseat a man they loathe. After all, Davies won 50% of the vote in 2015, with the Labour candidate coming in second at 31% – a significant gap, but one that feasibly could be closed.
But a spanner was chucked into the works from outside the constituency this week when the Women’s Equality party (WEP) revealed it was fielding a candidate in Shipley to challenge Davies’s seat. The announcement, which on the surface sounds like positive news, came as a surprise to SFZ organisers and provoked anger and frustration from many members of the group, who accused the WEP of hijacking Shipley to make headlines with complete disregard for what its people want. '
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/27/feminist-zealots-mp-philip-davies-shipley
Massively safe.
Greece has had deflation for most of this decade and hasn't had inflation over 5% apart from in just one year since long before they joined the Euro.
Greece doesn't have a problem with inflation, it has a problem with deflation.
Serial devaluation is not a sign of a healthy economy though.
As such, a non story.
Upset on the cards at Leeds - plus more excitement than at East Manchester. He is probably enjoying himself.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
I've been supportive of every level of scrutiny to be applied to May over the exiting process, but as much as she was and is going to act like the big bad EU is out to get us, no matter what they did, they are clearly very happy to play their part in that little dance, they are posturing for their audience more than seeking a mutually beneficial deal.
Britain has been alone against a hostile Europe many times before in its history.
That will show them
As is the case for the vast majority of people who live here.
Dave Allen Green of the Jack of Kent blog has just done a very neat precis of their published comments. Worth a read:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/857658175893499904
I think that wanting a big majority is all about surviving the fact that negotiations are going to be very short indeed.
North Down Con 500/1
Its a very affluent constituency where May might be popular and which the Conservatives nearly won in 1992.
I wonder if May might campaign there with her emphasis on the United Kingdom.
Torbay 1-4 Tories, 9-2 Lib Dem is far more correct.
St Ives should be more like 1-3, 5-2 Lib Dems.
If a and b are the turnouts for two candidates and X and Y are the fraction of the electorate who would vote for either candidates, and aX < bY, b wins.
You dream of the destruction and humiliation of your own country. But that's all it will ever be. A dream.
I think the BF 35-40 band is good value at 2.8, and the 30-35% at 8.4.
She is doomed.
But the suggestion was that there was a Scotland only YouGov tonight.
https://www.ft.com/content/f4c720b0-2b63-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c
@GramSkin: 27 countries, almost all with different language and culture, more united than our 4 #StrongAndStable twitter.com/Independent/st…
Are National Health Action standing in Ceredigion in the General ?
I have spent a fair bit of time canvassing in different parts of P&K over the last 3 months and there is a lot of anti-SNP feeling about with a number of SNP supporters who are much less enthused than before or indeed switching to other parties. It would be a bit of a surprise to see them holding onto the council as the minority party (20/41 at the moment)
I've been restricted ;-(
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/george-mitchell-warns-against-harmful-hard-border-1.3064072
He said believed the British vote to leave the EU will “prove historically to be a huge error”.
“I hope the US government will support and work with the Irish Government and leaders of the EU to achieve an outcome that respects the gains made in recent years,”
DYOR