Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
Did they really write a 14 page paper describing differential turnout?
Shouldn't that have also been true in R1? Yet she marginally underformed her polls, if anything.
I don't know if Cyan and HYFUD are FN sympathisers or just talking their book.
Macron is nailed on, but the 2.82 on Betfair for him on 60-65% is great value. I tipped Macron to come top 2 weeks ago, at similar odds several times on here. It was a nice little earner.
If I was French I would probably have voted for Fillon in round 1 and reluctantly for Macron in round 2 but I am British and I think Le Pen will get around 40-45% in the runoff, Opinonway today had her up to 41%
Double Tosh. The SNP have been by a light year the most successful Government in these islands over the last ten years which is why they still lead in the polls after a decade in Government.
Public services in Scotland are in infinitely better shape than south of the border and I speak as someone whose work pattern means I use both.
It's been exactly 12 months since Labour had an opinion poll lead.
It's amazing that Corbyn managed to get any poll leads at all IMO.
Well maybe not as it seems a fairly big chunk of the electorate still doesn't know much about Corbyn.
I wonder how much a person who doesn't read a newspaper, and doesn't tune in to Radio 4 or 5, and doesn't watch one of the half decent news programmes like Newsnight or Channel 4 news actually knows about day-to-day politics? That must be a fairly big chunk of the contemporary electorate. They are likely aware of who the party leaders are and the rough state of the parties, but the issues and controversies probably pass them by.
The majority almost halved in the by-election after Blair quit, and has been gently sliding downwards since.
Sedgefield is Conservative target number 87 at this election, with a Labour majority of 17.67% over the second place Conservatives. Ukip secured 16.6% of the popular vote at the last General Election.
If enough of those Ukip voters stick with their party, or sit on their hands out of enduring dislike of the Tories, then the Labour candidate should be safe. If they don't then it's possible for it to fall. Electoral Calculus currently computes the chances of the two parties of taking the seat as Labour 53%, Conservative 44%, but that feels a little too kind to the Tories! It estimates the EU referendum vote in Sedgefield at 60% Leave.
The Labour lead has whittled away.
But, Bishop Auckland is the better prospect.
Oh absolutely. Bishop Auckland is Conservative target number 45, with a Labour majority of 8.91% and a 2015 Ukip vote of almost exactly double that size, i.e. 50% of Ukip voters defect and the entire Labour majority is erased. If things carry on as they are then it is quite likely to go: the current probabilities on Electoral Calculus for the winner of this seat are Lab 41%, Con 55%.
Funny place Bishop Auckland - the Lib Dem vote in the 2010 election was nearly 10,000 and then collapsed to 1700 in 2015 - while the UKIP vote shot up from 1000 to 7000. There has been some new housing going up but the high street (like many others in the UK) is suffering the effect of high rates and an out of town shopping area. (Although at the end of the main street there is a Morrisons and an ASDA). Charity shops and, surprisingly, estate agents dominate. The market is no more. The council have improved the appearance and of course we now have Kynren and a benefactor wanting to make the castle a tourist attraction. So far I haven't seen any canvassing or posters, but if we are a marginal then I expect that to change.
The Labour vote is almost totally 'traditional Labour' - no champagne (or even Asti Spumante) socialists here - so I suspect its support might be quite soft.
In my experience the sort of nutter who engages in this doesn't bother to cover their tracks and they haven't in terms of three messages that have been attached to the packages.
There is a virulence about unionism in Scotland which is fundamentally unattractive and it is high time it was confronted not accommodated by the unionist parties.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
Did they really write a 14 page paper describing differential turnout?
Shouldn't that have also been true in R1? Yet she marginally underformed her polls, if anything.
I don't know if Cyan and HYFUD are FN sympathisers or just talking their book.
Macron is nailed on, but the 2.82 on Betfair for him on 60-65% is great value. I tipped Macron to come top 2 weeks ago, at similar odds several times on here. It was a nice little earner.
If I was French I would probably have voted for Fillon in round 1 and reluctantly for Macron in round 2 but I am British and I think Le Pen will get around 40-45% in the runoff, Opinonway today had her up to 41%
Le Pen and Melanchon are not that far apart economically or indeed on the EU so she will get some votes from him, whilst also getting some from Fillon. I doubt she will win, but Macron's vote is softer than I'd like if I was Jean Claude Junker.
I would also add it looks like a lose lose for France. Le Pen is a socialist with added "racism" so will crash the economy whilst Macron will, if he tries his reforms, be beset by strikes which will do no favours at all either.
In my experience the sort of nutter who engages in this doesn't bother to cover their tracks and they haven't in terms of three messages that have been attached to the packages.
There is a virulence about unionism in Scotland which is fundamentally unattractive and it is high time it was confronted not accommodated by the unionist parties.
In a huge shock, the Tories are not proving popular with the Oxford audience on QT. LibDems probably on course to gain Oxford West & Abingdon.
Oxford West & Abingdon would be my pick for Lib Dem upset of the evening. A low Ukip vote and a ~60:40 split in favour of Remain. Notes of caution, though:
1. 8.37% swing needed, against Government doing very well in the polls nationally: not easy 2. Lost back in 2010, not 2015: Lib Dems could not hold even when they were still relatively popular; now they appear to have stalled at somewhere between 10% and 12% in the polls
It's been exactly 12 months since Labour had an opinion poll lead.
It's amazing that Corbyn managed to get any poll leads at all IMO.
Well maybe not as it seems a fairly big chunk of the electorate still doesn't know much about Corbyn.
I wonder how much a person who doesn't read a newspaper, and doesn't tune in to Radio 4 or 5, and doesn't watch one of the half decent news programmes like Newsnight or Channel 4 news actually knows about day-to-day politics? That must be a fairly big chunk of the contemporary electorate. They are likely aware of who the party leaders are and the rough state of the parties, but the issues and controversies probably pass them by.
This is a very salient point. The majority of people fall into this category but most people involved in politics tend to forget this.
"Not really - when the package sent to Angus Council carries the motif "SNP Out - Tories In" then you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes." - its from a SNP supporter isn't it.
In my experience the sort of nutter who engages in this doesn't bother to cover their tracks and they haven't in terms of three messages that have been attached to the packages.
Intrigued as to how much experience you have with nutters like these. Where? When?
Funny place Bishop Auckland - the Lib Dem vote in the 2010 election was nearly 10,000 and then collapsed to 1700 in 2015 - while the UKIP vote shot up from 1000 to 7000. There has been some new housing going up but the high street (like many others in the UK) is suffering the effect of high rates and an out of town shopping area. (Although at the end of the main street there is a Morrisons and an ASDA). Charity shops and, surprisingly, estate agents dominate. The market is no more. The council have improved the appearance and of course we now have Kynren and a benefactor wanting to make the castle a tourist attraction. So far I haven't seen any canvassing or posters, but if we are a marginal then I expect that to change.
The Labour vote is almost totally 'traditional Labour' - no champagne (or even Asti Spumante) socialists here - so I suspect its support might be quite soft.
Interesting local knowledge. Certainly sounds amenable to May; I've tapped the 2011 Census data and the population of the constituency is relatively old and amongst the whitest in the country. You also have to fancy that, if the Liberal Democrats make any sort of a comeback, their votes are likely to come primarily from Labour. It's certainly what the national polling breakdowns would suggest.
Everything suggests that Labour ought to struggle there if we don't see a big change in the political climate between now and polling day.
If the people of England were told that the teacher shortage was going to be solved in three years there would be dancing in the street!!
As it happens it is a case in point. The Scotsman front page is actually a case in point - the three years is based on the extra teachers being taken into teacher training and ignores all of the other initiatives being taken.
In a huge shock, the Tories are not proving popular with the Oxford audience on QT. LD probably on course to gain Oxford West & Abingdon.
Super performance from Jo Swinson
I'm very much hoping she wins back East Dunbartonshire with a healthy majority.
She is even money to regain her seat. I think it is the LDs 2nd target seat in Scotland after Edin West but ahead of NE Fife. Agree that the party would greatly benefit from her being back in Parliament.
Yes your abuse of language rather makes my point about unionist virulence at the moment.
Let us take your central point the so called differences between Salmond and Sturgeon
Nicola 19/4/2017
"Make no mistake if the SNP wins the election in Scotland - and the Tories don't - then Theresa May's attempt to block our mandate to hold another referendum when the time is right will crumble to dust"
Alex 26/4/17
"We've got the mandate, and the general election is to reinforce the right of the Scottish Parliament to decide when the time is right for another independence referendum and if you get that sort of overwhelming vote then I believe the Prime Minister's position will crumble"
There was and is no difference outside of the unionist media.
So your position is then that the Angus package was not sent by an extreme Tory/Unionist.
Well given someone as daft as this will almost certainly be caught, tired and convicted we will see in due course if your state of denial is justified.
The Conservatives are on course to recapture their traditional Scottish heartlands after a generation in the wilderness, according to a new poll.
A YouGov survey for The Times has found a surge in Conservative support north of the border, a rise which would take the party from its 2015 election level of 15 per cent — and just one seat — to 28 per cent of the vote and eight Westminster MPs.
This would give parts of the country back to the Tories for the first time in 25 years — including Moray, now held by Angus Robertson, the SNP’s deputy leader, in Moray.
In my experience the sort of nutter who engages in this doesn't bother to cover their tracks and they haven't in terms of three messages that have been attached to the packages.
There is a virulence about unionism in Scotland which is fundamentally unattractive and it is high time it was confronted not accommodated by the unionist parties.
Except of course it is not Scottish nationalists who send white powder packages to MPs, councillors and Parliament - it is unionists.
And guess what not a word of condemnation from unionist parties or unionist media just denial of the forces that their use of language and general attitude has stirred.
Wow, so you know it's a unionist then? You must have Sherlockian powers.
the accompanying message “Get SNP out, Tories in” was a bit of a giveaway!
The Conservatives are on course to recapture their traditional Scottish heartlands after a generation in the wilderness, according to a new poll.
A YouGov survey for The Times has found a surge in Conservative support north of the border, a rise which would take the party from its 2015 election level of 15 per cent — and just one seat — to 28 per cent of the vote and eight Westminster MPs.
This would give parts of the country back to the Tories for the first time in 25 years — including Moray, now held by Angus Robertson, the SNP’s deputy leader, in Moray.
"Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.
The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still......................"
"Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night, or anti terrorist operation stays these couriers from the swift completion of their pizza deliveries.
So your position is then that the Angus package was not sent by an extreme Tory/Unionist.
Well given someone as daft as this will almost certainly be caught, tired and convicted we will see in due course if your state of denial is justified.
I'm saying we don't know - you're the one making claims over provenance.
Except of course it is not Scottish nationalists who send white powder packages to MPs, councillors and Parliament - it is unionists.
And guess what not a word of condemnation from unionist parties or unionist media just denial of the forces that their use of language and general attitude has stirred.
Wow, so you know it's a unionist then? You must have Sherlockian powers.
the accompanying message “Get SNP out, Tories in” was a bit of a giveaway!
Theory 1: it was a Unionist nut, making a feeble attempt to scare some Nationalists Theory 2: it was a Nationalist nut, making a feeble attempt to frame Unionists Theory 3: it was just a nut
Just perusing the various odds for the Scottish constituencies and see the Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath - the seat of Gordon Brown who was merely 64-14 ahead of the SNP in 2010 - is now a 20/1 shot for Labour to win. It really is hard to fathom how much things have changed in less than 5 years.
The Swing of 11% from SNP to the Tories would be even bigger than the swing of 4.5% from Labour to the Tories in today's UK yougov and if the SNP do lose their Westminster leader that would be the Tory scalp of the night
Only 37 per cent of the public back the first minister’s preferred timetable for a fresh vote, while more than half the population — 51 per cent — oppose another referendum completely.
The Swing of 11% from SNP to the Tories would be even bigger than the swing of 4.5% from Labour to the Tories in today's UK yougov and if the SNP do lose their Westminster leader that would be the Tory scalp of the night
Only 37 per cent of the public back the first minister’s preferred timetable for a fresh vote, while more than half the population — 51 per cent — oppose another referendum completely.
Is that God's way of saying that indy will lose again?
It's been exactly 12 months since Labour had an opinion poll lead.
And the few that they got were tiny: in terms of any poll of polls or rolling average, Labour have never been ahead at any point during this Parliament. They've also been on a pretty clear downward trajectory for the whole of the last year.
Not really. ICM had them on 27% in late July - ie 9 months ago. Today's Yougov rating of 29% is the highest with that pollster since the end of September - ie 7 months ago.
Remember these figures are at the moment of peak Brexit optimism. It will be downhill from here, and Nicola Sturgeon will be shown to have been acting in the (Scottish) national interest in making a plan for an independence referendum.
Remember these figures are at the moment of peak Brexit optimism. It will be downhill from here, and Nicola Sturgeon will be shown to have been acting in the (Scottish) national interest in making a plan for an independence referendum.
Remember these figures are at the moment of peak Brexit optimism. It will be downhill from here, and Nicola Sturgeon will be shown to have been acting in the (Scottish) national interest in making a plan for an independence referendum.
That only washes if Nicola Sturgeon can fill the hole in Scotland's deficit.
It's been exactly 12 months since Labour had an opinion poll lead.
And the few that they got were tiny: in terms of any poll of polls or rolling average, Labour have never been ahead at any point during this Parliament. They've also been on a pretty clear downward trajectory for the whole of the last year.
Not really. ICM had them on 27% in late July - ie 9 months ago. Today's Yougov rating of 29% is the highest with that pollster since the end of September - ie 7 months ago.
The poll suggests the Conservatives will win West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, Aberdeen South, Perth and North Perthshire, Dumfries and Galloway, Moray, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk and East Renfrewshire from the SNP, while retaining Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.
Anybody know any bands looking for a keyboard player?
Only 37 per cent of the public back the first minister’s preferred timetable for a fresh vote, while more than half the population — 51 per cent — oppose another referendum completely.
Apparantly what the Scot's actually want is - Freeeedom!!! .... from multiple independence referenda
So your position is then that the Angus package was not sent by an extreme Tory/Unionist.
Well given someone as daft as this will almost certainly be caught, tired and convicted we will see in due course if your state of denial is justified.
I'm saying we don't know - you're the one making claims over provenance.
I've been to many, many "White Powder" incidents. Not one has ever been anything more serious than baby milk formula or sports drink powder. One was actually yellow ink toner, in a package that said yellow ink toner, called in by a guy who was expecting a yellow ink toner delivery, but somehow said the word "uranium" whilst in a building that a minor Royal was due to attend. My advice is that if you receive such a package, chuck it in the bin and accept that you are a better person than the fucking fuckwit who thinks they are scaring you.
Speaking as a former Philly area resident, I must say I'm glad I don't live there now.
The NFL is holding the Draft there for 3 nights starting tonight. They've built an auditorium with the stage on the steps of the Art Museum (think Rocky) and they've closed Ben Franklin Parkway too.
It's bad enough here with part of I-85 closed north of downtown in both directions, a road which carries 400k vehicles a day.
After 2 years in Philly the draft moves to the Cowboys practice facility in Frisco TX.
No, at the weekend the "boast" was SNP >50 seats. This would give Nicola Sturgeon’s party 47 seats at Westminster, nine fewer than the 56 the SNP won in 2015.
Comments
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/857720227114749952
Edit: Boston & Skegness is Tory defence number 57, with a majority over Ukip of precisely 10%.
https://twitter.com/andywigmore/status/857704361333575680
I wonder how much a person who doesn't read a newspaper, and doesn't tune in to Radio 4 or 5, and doesn't watch one of the half decent news programmes like Newsnight or Channel 4 news actually knows about day-to-day politics? That must be a fairly big chunk of the contemporary electorate. They are likely aware of who the party leaders are and the rough state of the parties, but the issues and controversies probably pass them by.
The Labour vote is almost totally 'traditional Labour' - no champagne (or even Asti Spumante) socialists here - so I suspect its support might be quite soft.
In my experience the sort of nutter who engages in this doesn't bother to cover their tracks and they haven't in terms of three messages that have been attached to the packages.
There is a virulence about unionism in Scotland which is fundamentally unattractive and it is high time it was confronted not accommodated by the unionist parties.
I would also add it looks like a lose lose for France. Le Pen is a socialist with added "racism" so will crash the economy whilst Macron will, if he tries his reforms, be beset by strikes which will do no favours at all either.
I've had my £2.50@33/1!
1. 8.37% swing needed, against Government doing very well in the polls nationally: not easy
2. Lost back in 2010, not 2015: Lib Dems could not hold even when they were still relatively popular; now they appear to have stalled at somewhere between 10% and 12% in the polls
Doomed.
Chair of BMA in Scotland "most people accept that the Scottish Health Service is in fundamentally better shape than south of the border"
Not a quote you will see in the unionist media but the record 90 per cent satisfied with their health treatment in Scotland will agree.
Incidentally the roads to Boston and Skeggy are notoriously slow. He won't be able to combine campaigning with much of a national campaign.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/15/bma-chief-scottish-nhs-heading-breakdown/
Everything suggests that Labour ought to struggle there if we don't see a big change in the political climate between now and polling day.
If the people of England were told that the teacher shortage was going to be solved in three years there would be dancing in the street!!
As it happens it is a case in point. The Scotsman front page is actually a case in point - the three years is based on the extra teachers being taken into teacher training and ignores all of the other initiatives being taken.
Wales has boosted recruitment significantly, in part by this means:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-37702553
The door is closed, but the Horse bolted long ago.
It would appear that one terrorist incident per day is no longer enough in 2017.
It is why May fears the debates.
Yes your abuse of language rather makes my point about unionist virulence at the moment.
Let us take your central point the so called differences between Salmond and Sturgeon
Nicola 19/4/2017
"Make no mistake if the SNP wins the election in Scotland - and the Tories don't - then Theresa May's attempt to block our mandate to hold another referendum when the time is right will crumble to dust"
Alex 26/4/17
"We've got the mandate, and the general election is to reinforce the right of the Scottish Parliament to decide when the time is right for another independence referendum and if you get that sort of overwhelming vote then I believe the Prime Minister's position will crumble"
There was and is no difference outside of the unionist media.
Neil: "Where has Corbyn's brand of socialism worked?"
Fraser: (skirting question) "Well, it's a brand of socialism for the future."
And so, the great wheel of socialism, which has crushed tens of millions of lives, turns anew:
1. Socialism arrives!
2. Socialism goes horribly, horribly wrong.
3. Socialism is abandoned.
4. Socialists cry: "But that wasn't REAL socialism!"
5. Socialism arrives again.
(REPEAT UNTIL EVERYONE IS DEAD)
So your position is then that the Angus package was not sent by an extreme Tory/Unionist.
Well given someone as daft as this will almost certainly be caught, tired and convicted we will see in due course if your state of denial is justified.
A YouGov survey for The Times has found a surge in Conservative support north of the border, a rise which would take the party from its 2015 election level of 15 per cent — and just one seat — to 28 per cent of the vote and eight Westminster MPs.
This would give parts of the country back to the Tories for the first time in 25 years — including Moray, now held by Angus Robertson, the SNP’s deputy leader, in Moray.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/tories-on-course-to-recapture-heartlands-87z25xbqv
Because if they are being serious they need help
"Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.
The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still......................"
CON 28 (+13)
LAB 18 (-6)
LD 7 (-1)
GRN 3 (+2)
UKIP 2 (--)
SNP 41% (-9)
Con 28% (+13)
Lab 18% (-6)
LD 7% (-1)
Greens 3% (+2)
UKIP 2% (nc)
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/857732259012587521
Theory 2: it was a Nationalist nut, making a feeble attempt to frame Unionists
Theory 3: it was just a nut
How do you know which of these theories is true?
It really is hard to fathom how much things have changed in less than 5 years.
Separatist: 44
Only 37 per cent of the public back the first minister’s preferred timetable for a fresh vote, while more than half the population — 51 per cent — oppose another referendum completely.
sheddoor steps it is totally different.But at the weekend wasn't the boast 12 seats?
Anybody know any bands looking for a keyboard player?
My advice is that if you receive such a package, chuck it in the bin and accept that you are a better person than the fucking fuckwit who thinks they are scaring you.
The NFL is holding the Draft there for 3 nights starting tonight. They've built an auditorium with the stage on the steps of the Art Museum (think Rocky) and they've closed Ben Franklin Parkway too.
It's bad enough here with part of I-85 closed north of downtown in both directions, a road which carries 400k vehicles a day.
After 2 years in Philly the draft moves to the Cowboys practice facility in Frisco TX.
This would give Nicola Sturgeon’s party 47 seats at Westminster, nine fewer than the 56 the SNP won in 2015.
Oh...