Unless I've misread the analysis SNP +3% for the Council elections seems rather low to me does it not?
I think that the SNP vote will increase by more than that in West of Scotland and in some areas I can see them increasing by 10%+ but, and I know that this is based from 2012 votes, in some areas they will flat line or indeed fall back slightly. I would guess 3% is a bit low but not by much. I have spent a fair bit of time canvassing in different parts of P&K over the last 3 months and there is a lot of anti-SNP feeling about with a number of SNP supporters who are much less enthused than before or indeed switching to other parties. It would be a bit of a surprise to see them holding onto the council as the minority party (20/41 at the moment)
The GE has thrown what little thoughts i had about the council elections up in the air. The effect it will have on turnout is kind of critical to the result given the huge attrition low turn out has on the SNP vote.
More to the point it would go down very badly in parts of NI. I find it hard to believe the EU would enter such a difficult arena. furthermore it seems designed at this juncture to encourage and even bigger landslide for the Tories.
Its a very affluent constituency where May might be popular and which the Conservatives nearly won in 1992.
I wonder if May might campaign there with her emphasis on the United Kingdom.
The more I think about it, the more I think that's an excellent tip.
There's a chance the EU's actions, and May's own personal appeal, draws the politics of the UK together very sharply, particularly since the DUP allure has faded.
It's happened for the Conservatives in Wales and Scotland, why not NI too?
I forecast this at conference, and some people said I was talking rubbish, well I fart in your face now.
The Conservative party has embarked upon a fundraising drive among its wealthiest donors with the aim of raising £19m for the general election. The move follows concerns that the party’s income has dipped sharply since the EU referendum because pro-remain donors and friends of David Cameron are keeping their cheque books shut.
A financier and a plumbing magnate who has been hostile to Theresa May are among the party’s former backers who have been asked this week to hand over large sums.
The YouGov tonight is a Scottish one, not a GB wide one. It should appear on The Times website just after midnight, but I'm at the cinema, so won't be covering it.
I forecast this at conference, and some people said I was talking rubbish, well I fart in your face now.
The Conservative party has embarked upon a fundraising drive among its wealthiest donors with the aim of raising £19m for the general election. The move follows concerns that the party’s income has dipped sharply since the EU referendum because pro-remain donors and friends of David Cameron are keeping their cheque books shut.
A financier and a plumbing magnate who has been hostile to Theresa May are among the party’s former backers who have been asked this week to hand over large sums.
More to the point it would go down very badly in parts of NI. I find it hard to believe the EU would enter such a difficult arena. furthermore it seems designed at this juncture to encourage and even bigger landslide for the Tories.
Yes the EU is backing up May's reasoning for calling a general election. I hope the Remainers will now retract their unfounded criticism.
I forecast this at conference, and some people said I was talking rubbish, well I fart in your face now.
The Conservative party has embarked upon a fundraising drive among its wealthiest donors with the aim of raising £19m for the general election. The move follows concerns that the party’s income has dipped sharply since the EU referendum because pro-remain donors and friends of David Cameron are keeping their cheque books shut.
A financier and a plumbing magnate who has been hostile to Theresa May are among the party’s former backers who have been asked this week to hand over large sums.
I forecast this at conference, and some people said I was talking rubbish, well I fart in your face now.
The Conservative party has embarked upon a fundraising drive among its wealthiest donors with the aim of raising £19m for the general election. The move follows concerns that the party’s income has dipped sharply since the EU referendum because pro-remain donors and friends of David Cameron are keeping their cheque books shut.
A financier and a plumbing magnate who has been hostile to Theresa May are among the party’s former backers who have been asked this week to hand over large sums.
We really do need to move to a cap on election expenditure and state funding of political parties.
That way multi-millionaire chums of the Posh Boys will have never again have any further influence on the future of this country (beyond their own votes of course)
I forecast this at conference, and some people said I was talking rubbish, well I fart in your face now.
The Conservative party has embarked upon a fundraising drive among its wealthiest donors with the aim of raising £19m for the general election. The move follows concerns that the party’s income has dipped sharply since the EU referendum because pro-remain donors and friends of David Cameron are keeping their cheque books shut.
A financier and a plumbing magnate who has been hostile to Theresa May are among the party’s former backers who have been asked this week to hand over large sums.
The YouGov tonight is a Scottish one, not a GB wide one. It should appear on The Times website just after midnight, but I'm at the cinema, so won't be covering it.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
What tosh. I have been canvassing in both Aberdeen and the shire. The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country. This won't be uniform perhaps 15 per cent in the city and 5 per cent in Aberdeenshire.. What you are pciking up is a much more assertive Tory support which is vigorous indeed offensive in its attitude.
Much as I would like to contribute to tonight's discussion, I see it has deteriorated into the Dad's Army episode of www.brexiteerswanking.com again, so I shall confine myself to passing on my condolences to Sunil and Murali when I finish work later tonight.
The YouGov tonight is a Scottish one, not a GB wide one. It should appear on The Times website just after midnight, but I'm at the cinema, so won't be covering it.
Well, I'm not staying up for that.
Fux sake. What time do they call that?
The time they update their website.
It might appear earlier on these twitter accounts, so might be worth following
What tosh. I have been canvassing in both Aberdeen and the shire. The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country. This won't be uniform perhaps 15 per cent in the city and 5 per cent in Aberdeenshire.. What you are pciking up is a much more assertive Tory support which is vigorous indeed offensive in its attitude.
Not so much #fakenews as #oldnews and given I'm not sure why the hell I should care about what Boris Johnson's sister thinks anymore than I cared about what Cherie Booth QC's sister thought back in the day I'd be tempted to say #nonews
What tosh. I have been canvassing in both Aberdeen and the shire. The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country. This won't be uniform perhaps 15 per cent in the city and 5 per cent in Aberdeenshire.. What you are pciking up is a much more assertive Tory support which is vigorous indeed offensive in its attitude.
It is also - thank God - a minority.
I wouldn't describe the anti-SNP thing a just something you get from the Tories. It is from all other parties (except the odd Green voter that you come across). Yes the SNP vote will be up across most of the country, but I think that in the more rural or indeed the more affluent areas (Basically low Labour vote areas) I think that it will not be up by very much at all. I would also suggest the anti-SNPness you get from Tories is not any different in how vigorous it is to the anti-Toryness you get from Nationalists.
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.
It is worth remembering that it wasn't always like that. In the early 2000s, Germany was the sick man of the Eurozone, laden down with reunification bills and an inflexible labour market. Under Schroeder and Haartz, they liberalised the Labour market, and the rest - they say - is history.
What tosh. I have been canvassing in both Aberdeen and the shire. The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country. This won't be uniform perhaps 15 per cent in the city and 5 per cent in Aberdeenshire.. What you are pciking up is a much more assertive Tory support which is vigorous indeed offensive in its attitude.
It is also - thank God - a minority.
Offensive in its attitude is in the SNP dna
Something I have noticed with the SNP over the last three-four years is that they are a very strong political entity, but an awful governing one. They are good at getting power but then completely fail to wield it, they just look for more power and neglect the areas they can already control. This leaves them in a permanent state of revolution, but if this tide is turned and they begin to lose ground it would be interesting to see what happens next.
It's not complicated, it means she doesn't have to worry about rebels.
The EU were never worried about her rebels
May was, and if there's going to be a fight with the EU it would be better if she didn't have to keep looking over her shoulder. A bigger majority will mean she has one problem, not two.
I forecast this at conference, and some people said I was talking rubbish, well I fart in your face now.
The Conservative party has embarked upon a fundraising drive among its wealthiest donors with the aim of raising £19m for the general election. The move follows concerns that the party’s income has dipped sharply since the EU referendum because pro-remain donors and friends of David Cameron are keeping their cheque books shut.
A financier and a plumbing magnate who has been hostile to Theresa May are among the party’s former backers who have been asked this week to hand over large sums.
Its a very affluent constituency where May might be popular and which the Conservatives nearly won in 1992.
I wonder if May might campaign there with her emphasis on the United Kingdom.
The more I think about it, the more I think that's an excellent tip.
There's a chance the EU's actions, and May's own personal appeal, draws the politics of the UK together very sharply, particularly since the DUP allure has faded.
It's happened for the Conservatives in Wales and Scotland, why not NI too?
Yes the EU is backing up May's reasoning for calling a general election.
No they really aren't. We did this earlier. The EU doesn't care how big Tezza's majority is. It makes zero difference to the negotiations.
I wonder how this will play out on the Election as people start to see the implications arising from the cesspit of lies the Leave campaign peddled. The political and financial costs are starting to become apparent to more than just the educated amongst us on this Board and there are another six weeks of job losses and negative press to come. I think Tory vote expectations have peaked and it will be downhill from here until Polling day.
This is an incredibly convoluted and long-running saga but it relates to loans given to Northampton Town FC and it's former owner who was at one point being investigated by the police.
Not sure what actually came of the police inquiry?
The YouGov tonight is a Scottish one, not a GB wide one. It should appear on The Times website just after midnight, but I'm at the cinema, so won't be covering it.
Yes the EU is backing up May's reasoning for calling a general election.
No they really aren't. We did this earlier. The EU doesn't care how big Tezza's majority is. It makes zero difference to the negotiations.
I wonder how this will play out on the Election as people start to see the implications arising from the cesspit of lies the Leave campaign peddled. The political and financial costs are starting to become apparent to more than just the educated amongst us on this Board and there are another six weeks of job losses and negative press to come. I think Tory vote expectations have peaked and it will be downhill from here until Polling day.
Yes the EU is backing up May's reasoning for calling a general election.
No they really aren't. We did this earlier. The EU doesn't care how big Tezza's majority is. It makes zero difference to the negotiations.
I wonder how this will play out on the Election as people start to see the implications arising from the cesspit of lies the Leave campaign peddled. The political and financial costs are starting to become apparent to more than just the educated amongst us on this Board and there are another six weeks of job losses and negative press to come. I think Tory vote expectations have peaked and it will be downhill from here until Polling day.
The YouGov tonight is a Scottish one, not a GB wide one. It should appear on The Times website just after midnight, but I'm at the cinema, so won't be covering it.
Absolutely right Scott (for once) it will be no problem, as the article is balderdash and blowing smoke up your arse.
In short, (having read much on the subject) if we copy and paste the tariffs there can be no complaints as the complainant would have to show a harm to trade which they can't.
Also to note though that the EU current tariff schedule if agreed at all has only been so since December 2016.
The only issue is splitting our quotas from the rest of the EUs but then there are complaints about the EUs in any case.
I forecast this at conference, and some people said I was talking rubbish, well I fart in your face now.
The Conservative party has embarked upon a fundraising drive among its wealthiest donors with the aim of raising £19m for the general election. The move follows concerns that the party’s income has dipped sharply since the EU referendum because pro-remain donors and friends of David Cameron are keeping their cheque books shut.
A financier and a plumbing magnate who has been hostile to Theresa May are among the party’s former backers who have been asked this week to hand over large sums.
What tosh. I have been canvassing in both Aberdeen and the shire. The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country. This won't be uniform perhaps 15 per cent in the city and 5 per cent in Aberdeenshire.. What you are pciking up is a much more assertive Tory support which is vigorous indeed offensive in its attitude.
It is also - thank God - a minority.
Offensive in its attitude is in the SNP dna
Something I have noticed with the SNP over the last three-four years is that they are a very strong political entity, but an awful governing one. They are good at getting power but then completely fail to wield it, they just look for more power and neglect the areas they can already control. This leaves them in a permanent state of revolution, but if this tide is turned and they begin to lose ground it would be interesting to see what happens next.
The problem for the SNP is it quite a broad coalition from the Socialist to the Tartan Tories. What this means is that when they are a position to make decisions it is hard for them to do anything too radical without upsetting a large section of their own party supporters. Therefore what seems to be their solution at the moment is to sound left of centre but, economically at least, be more right of centre. Mainly it means don't do anything unless they have to.
The YouGov tonight is a Scottish one, not a GB wide one. It should appear on The Times website just after midnight, but I'm at the cinema, so won't be covering it.
Yes the EU is backing up May's reasoning for calling a general election.
No they really aren't. We did this earlier. The EU doesn't care how big Tezza's majority is. It makes zero difference to the negotiations.
I wonder how this will play out on the Election as people start to see the implications arising from the cesspit of lies the Leave campaign peddled. The political and financial costs are starting to become apparent to more than just the educated amongst us on this Board and there are another six weeks of job losses and negative press to come. I think Tory vote expectations have peaked and it will be downhill from here until Polling day.
You must be very upset about how much the stock market has risen over the last year.
What tosh. I have been canvassing in both Aberdeen and the shire. The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country. This won't be uniform perhaps 15 per cent in the city and 5 per cent in Aberdeenshire.. What you are pciking up is a much more assertive Tory support which is vigorous indeed offensive in its attitude.
It is also - thank God - a minority.
Offensive in its attitude is in the SNP dna
Something I have noticed with the SNP over the last three-four years is that they are a very strong political entity, but an awful governing one. They are good at getting power but then completely fail to wield it, they just look for more power and neglect the areas they can already control. This leaves them in a permanent state of revolution, but if this tide is turned and they begin to lose ground it would be interesting to see what happens next.
The problem for the SNP is it quite a broad coalition from the Socialist to the Tartan Tories. What this means is that when they are a position to make decisions it is hard for them to do anything too radical without upsetting a large section of their own party supporters. Therefore what seems to be their solution at the moment is to sound left of centre but, economically at least, be more right of centre. Mainly it means don't do anything unless they have to.
Which completely explains the last year in Holyrood. If they do lose some MP's then they are rebuffed on Brexit to an extent, this leaves Nicole having to do her actual day job whilst having Salmond blatantly undermining her in London.
The YouGov tonight is a Scottish one, not a GB wide one. It should appear on The Times website just after midnight, but I'm at the cinema, so won't be covering it.
The majority almost halved in the by-election after Blair quit, and has been gently sliding downwards since.
Sedgefield is Conservative target number 87 at this election, with a Labour majority of 17.67% over the second place Conservatives. Ukip secured 16.6% of the popular vote at the last General Election.
If enough of those Ukip voters stick with their party, or sit on their hands out of enduring dislike of the Tories, then the Labour candidate should be safe. If they don't then it's possible for it to fall. Electoral Calculus currently computes the chances of the two parties of taking the seat as Labour 53%, Conservative 44%, but that feels a little too kind to the Tories! It estimates the EU referendum vote in Sedgefield at 60% Leave.
I forecast this at conference, and some people said I was talking rubbish, well I fart in your face now.
The Conservative party has embarked upon a fundraising drive among its wealthiest donors with the aim of raising £19m for the general election. The move follows concerns that the party’s income has dipped sharply since the EU referendum because pro-remain donors and friends of David Cameron are keeping their cheque books shut.
A financier and a plumbing magnate who has been hostile to Theresa May are among the party’s former backers who have been asked this week to hand over large sums.
Double Tosh. The SNP have been by a light year the most successful Government in these islands over the last ten years which is why they still lead in the polls after a decade in Government.
Public services in Scotland are in infinitely better shape than south of the border and I speak as someone whose work pattern means I use both. Believe me no-one would use the national health service in England if they had the option of using it in Scotland - for a start you would have a 15 per cent chance of being seen in A@E within 4 hours.
Lastly if you look at what Salmond said yesterday on the radio at 4 pm it is IDENTICAL to what Nicola Sturgeon said while campaigning at 9 am. Try to rise above the nonsence in the unionist media. There is and never has been a divergence between Sturgeon and Salmond on any substantial area of policy.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
What tosh. I have been canvassing in both Aberdeen and the shire. The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country. This won't be uniform perhaps 15 per cent in the city and 5 per cent in Aberdeenshire.. What you are pciking up is a much more assertive Tory support which is vigorous indeed offensive in its attitude.
It is also - thank God - a minority.
Offensive in its attitude is in the SNP dna
Something I have noticed with the SNP over the last three-four years is that they are a very strong political entity, but an awful governing one. They are good at getting power but then completely fail to wield it, they just look for more power and neglect the areas they can already control. This leaves them in a permanent state of revolution, but if this tide is turned and they begin to lose ground it would be interesting to see what happens next.
The problem for the SNP is it quite a broad coalition from the Socialist to the Tartan Tories. What this means is that when they are a position to make decisions it is hard for them to do anything too radical without upsetting a large section of their own party supporters. Therefore what seems to be their solution at the moment is to sound left of centre but, economically at least, be more right of centre. Mainly it means don't do anything unless they have to.
Which completely explains the last year in Holyrood. If they do lose some MP's then they are rebuffed on Brexit to an extent, this leaves Nicole having to do her actual day job whilst having Salmond blatantly undermining her in London.
I don't think that a vote against the SNP is necessary a vote against Brexit, indeed some of the losses might be to the Libdems. A vote against the SNP is a vote against independence and or incompetence.
@JananGanesh: Eurosceptic line is that EU ignores national democracy *and* that a national democratic mandate will compel the EU to deal fairly.
It isn't my line, mine is that Theresa May knows she has the backing of parliament and can tell them where to get off if she needs to, which may happen at times during the "negotiations".
The majority almost halved in the by-election after Blair quit, and has been gently sliding downwards since.
Sedgefield is Conservative target number 87 at this election, with a Labour majority of 17.67% over the second place Conservatives. Ukip secured 16.6% of the popular vote at the last General Election.
If enough of those Ukip voters stick with their party, or sit on their hands out of enduring dislike of the Tories, then the Labour candidate should be safe. If they don't then it's possible for it to fall. Electoral Calculus currently computes the chances of the two parties of taking the seat as Labour 53%, Conservative 44%, but that feels a little too kind to the Tories! It estimates the EU referendum vote in Sedgefield at 60% Leave.
What tosh. I have been canvassing in both Aberdeen and the shire. The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country. This won't be uniform perhaps 15 per cent in the city and 5 per cent in Aberdeenshire.. What you are pciking up is a much more assertive Tory support which is vigorous indeed offensive in its attitude.
It is also - thank God - a minority.
Offensive in its attitude is in the SNP dna
Something I have noticed with the SNP over the last three-four years is that they are a very strong political entity, but an awful governing one. They are good at getting power but then completely fail to wield it, they just look for more power and neglect the areas they can already control. This leaves them in a permanent state of revolution, but if this tide is turned and they begin to lose ground it would be interesting to see what happens next.
The problem for the SNP is it quite a broad coalition from the Socialist to the Tartan Tories. What this means is that when they are a position to make decisions it is hard for them to do anything too radical without upsetting a large section of their own party supporters. Therefore what seems to be their solution at the moment is to sound left of centre but, economically at least, be more right of centre. Mainly it means don't do anything unless they have to.
Which completely explains the last year in Holyrood. If they do lose some MP's then they are rebuffed on Brexit to an extent, this leaves Nicole having to do her actual day job whilst having Salmond blatantly undermining her in London.
I don't think that a vote against the SNP is necessary a vote against Brexit, indeed some of the losses might be to the Libdems. A vote against the SNP is a vote against independence and or incompetence.
For Brexit see Indi, apologies I clearly wasn't thinking when I typed.
Double Tosh. The SNP have been by a light year the most successful Government in these islands over the last ten years which is why they still lead in the polls after a decade in Government.
Triple tosh!
You only have to look at the lack of growth in Scotland compared to the rUK, the shortage of teachers and the falling standards in schools along with the various police Scotland fiascos to see the failings of the SNP government.
Except of course it is not Scottish nationalists who send white powder packages to MPs, councillors and Parliament - it is unionists.
And guess what not a word of condemnation from unionist parties or unionist media just denial of the forces that their use of language and general attitude has stirred.
The majority almost halved in the by-election after Blair quit, and has been gently sliding downwards since.
Sedgefield is Conservative target number 87 at this election, with a Labour majority of 17.67% over the second place Conservatives. Ukip secured 16.6% of the popular vote at the last General Election.
If enough of those Ukip voters stick with their party, or sit on their hands out of enduring dislike of the Tories, then the Labour candidate should be safe. If they don't then it's possible for it to fall. Electoral Calculus currently computes the chances of the two parties of taking the seat as Labour 53%, Conservative 44%, but that feels a little too kind to the Tories! It estimates the EU referendum vote in Sedgefield at 60% Leave.
The Labour lead has whittled away.
But, Bishop Auckland is the better prospect.
Oh absolutely. Bishop Auckland is Conservative target number 45, with a Labour majority of 8.91% and a 2015 Ukip vote of almost exactly double that size, i.e. 50% of Ukip voters defect and the entire Labour majority is erased. If things carry on as they are then it is quite likely to go: the current probabilities on Electoral Calculus for the winner of this seat are Lab 41%, Con 55%.
It's been exactly 12 months since Labour had an opinion poll lead.
And the few that they got were tiny: in terms of any poll of polls or rolling average, Labour have never been ahead at any point during this Parliament. They've also been on a pretty clear downward trajectory for the whole of the last year.
Double Tosh. The SNP have been by a light year the most successful Government in these islands over the last ten years which is why they still lead in the polls after a decade in Government.
Public services in Scotland are in infinitely better shape than south of the border and I speak as someone whose work pattern means I use both. Believe me no-one would use the national health service in England if they had the option of using it in Scotland - for a start you would have a 15 per cent chance of being seen in A@E within 4 hours.
Lastly if you look at what Salmond said yesterday on the radio at 4 pm it is IDENTICAL to what Nicola Sturgeon said while campaigning at 9 am. Try to rise above the nonsence in the unionist media. There is and never has been a divergence between Sturgeon and Salmond on any substantial area of policy.
Do you believe that or are you being comically over the top?
The education and healthcare standards are falling, the economy is not growing, the population is ageing, the police are in disarray both over their recent re-org and their new one with the BTP and Salmond and Sturgeon are literally disagreeing with each other at the same time at different ends of the country. Have some humility for fucks sake.
Also, my work sponsored BUPA just kicked in so the NHS doesn't mean much to me any more (acts smugly then realises he will regret it one day).
Except of course it is not Scottish nationalists who send white powder packages to MPs, councillors and Parliament - it is unionists.
And guess what not a word of condemnation from unionist parties or unionist media just denial of the forces that their use of language and general attitude has stirred.
Wow, so you know it's a unionist then? You must have Sherlockian powers.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
Did they really write a 14 page paper describing differential turnout?
Shouldn't that have also been true in R1? Yet she marginally underformed her polls, if anything.
I don't know if Cyan and HYFUD are FN sympathisers or just talking their book.
Macron is nailed on, but the 2.82 on Betfair for him on 60-65% is great value. I tipped Macron to come top 2 weeks ago, at similar odds several times on here. It was a nice little earner.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
Using the 12 polls between polling day and today, inclusive, and margins of error for the proportions who say they will vote for Le Pen:
10%-23% of Mélenchon voters 0%-8% of Hamon voters 21%-38% of Fillon voters
...accounting for 6%-13% of all R1 voters.
I'd like to see Macron/Le Pen/abstain-spoilt-blank figures for those who were abstain-spoilt-blank in R1.
If you abstained or did not vote in round 1 you certainly won't in round 2. The key will be the number of Melenchon voters who abstain and the number of Fillon voters who vote for Le Pen
Except of course it is not Scottish nationalists who send white powder packages to MPs, councillors and Parliament - it is unionists.
And guess what not a word of condemnation from unionist parties or unionist media just denial of the forces that their use of language and general attitude has stirred.
Think you need to look at the whole picture of these incidents. More packages were sent to various police HQs along with John Nicolson's office and the Angus council buildings.
Double Tosh. The SNP have been by a light year the most successful Government in these islands over the last ten years which is why they still lead in the polls after a decade in Government.
Public services in Scotland are in infinitely better shape than south of the border and I speak as someone whose work pattern means I use both.
Comments
https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/857705977847664642
Oh...
There's a chance the EU's actions, and May's own personal appeal, draws the politics of the UK together very sharply, particularly since the DUP allure has faded.
It's happened for the Conservatives in Wales and Scotland, why not NI too?
The Conservative party has embarked upon a fundraising drive among its wealthiest donors with the aim of raising £19m for the general election. The move follows concerns that the party’s income has dipped sharply since the EU referendum because pro-remain donors and friends of David Cameron are keeping their cheque books shut.
A financier and a plumbing magnate who has been hostile to Theresa May are among the party’s former backers who have been asked this week to hand over large sums.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/tories-call-on-wealthy-donors-to-stump-up-19m-general-election-fund#img-1
That way multi-millionaire chums of the Posh Boys will have never again have any further influence on the future of this country (beyond their own votes of course)
Fux sake. What time do they call that?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
What tosh. I have been canvassing in both Aberdeen and the shire. The SNP vote is rock solid and they will be up 10 per cent or so across the country. This won't be uniform perhaps 15 per cent in the city and 5 per cent in Aberdeenshire.. What you are pciking up is a much more assertive Tory support which is vigorous indeed offensive in its attitude.
It is also - thank God - a minority.
It might appear earlier on these twitter accounts, so might be worth following
https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/with_replies
and
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/with_replies
I would also suggest the anti-SNPness you get from Tories is not any different in how vigorous it is to the anti-Toryness you get from Nationalists.
Not sure what actually came of the police inquiry?
https://twitter.com/TimesPictures/status/857708061292711936
For certain, or are you just hopeful?
In short, (having read much on the subject) if we copy and paste the tariffs there can be no complaints as the complainant would have to show a harm to trade which they can't.
Also to note though that the EU current tariff schedule if agreed at all has only been so since December 2016.
The only issue is splitting our quotas from the rest of the EUs but then there are complaints about the EUs in any case.
So no, WTO arrangements are not a problem.
https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/857701068632993795
Unless their buying a House of Lords seat.
Is there some thick MP factor being taken into consideration ?
Perhaps so as Labour are only 1/25 in Tottenham.
If Alex Massie has hyped up a poll with MOE changes, I sending him a package with lots of sugar in it.
I'll get me coat ....
Seems the Conservatives did actually hold Sedgefield once... Way back in 1931.
Blair had a majority of 25,000 there in 1997!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedgefield_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
This is quite staggering:
Sedgefield is Conservative target number 87 at this election, with a Labour majority of 17.67% over the second place Conservatives. Ukip secured 16.6% of the popular vote at the last General Election.
If enough of those Ukip voters stick with their party, or sit on their hands out of enduring dislike of the Tories, then the Labour candidate should be safe. If they don't then it's possible for it to fall. Electoral Calculus currently computes the chances of the two parties of taking the seat as Labour 53%, Conservative 44%, but that feels a little too kind to the Tories! It estimates the EU referendum vote in Sedgefield at 60% Leave.
Double Tosh. The SNP have been by a light year the most successful Government in these islands over the last ten years which is why they still lead in the polls after a decade in Government.
Public services in Scotland are in infinitely better shape than south of the border and I speak as someone whose work pattern means I use both. Believe me no-one would use the national health service in England if they had the option of using it in Scotland - for a start you would have a 15 per cent chance of being seen in A@E within 4 hours.
Lastly if you look at what Salmond said yesterday on the radio at 4 pm it is IDENTICAL to what Nicola Sturgeon said while campaigning at 9 am. Try to rise above the nonsence in the unionist media. There is and never has been a divergence between Sturgeon and Salmond on any substantial area of policy.
10%-23% of Mélenchon voters
0%-8% of Hamon voters
21%-38% of Fillon voters
...accounting for 6%-13% of all R1 voters.
I'd like to see Macron/Le Pen/abstain-spoilt-blank figures for those who were abstain-spoilt-blank in R1.
It's been exactly 12 months since Labour had an opinion poll lead.
But, Bishop Auckland is the better prospect.
Nothing new there.
You only have to look at the lack of growth in Scotland compared to the rUK, the shortage of teachers and the falling standards in schools along with the various police Scotland fiascos to see the failings of the SNP government.
Except of course it is not Scottish nationalists who send white powder packages to MPs, councillors and Parliament - it is unionists.
And guess what not a word of condemnation from unionist parties or unionist media just denial of the forces that their use of language and general attitude has stirred.
Like this perhaps?
https://youtu.be/AjPBp6DOwgU
The education and healthcare standards are falling, the economy is not growing, the population is ageing, the police are in disarray both over their recent re-org and their new one with the BTP and Salmond and Sturgeon are literally disagreeing with each other at the same time at different ends of the country. Have some humility for fucks sake.
Also, my work sponsored BUPA just kicked in so the NHS doesn't mean much to me any more (acts smugly then realises he will regret it one day).
Macron is nailed on, but the 2.82 on Betfair for him on 60-65% is great value. I tipped Macron to come top 2 weeks ago, at similar odds several times on here. It was a nice little earner.
Not really - when the package sent to Angus Council carries the motif "SNP Out - Tories In" then you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39738784
Care to speculate and tell us why it must be unionists who attacked the police??
https://twitter.com/jameskellylab/status/857715896252600321