The poll suggests the Conservatives will win West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, Aberdeen South, Perth and North Perthshire, Dumfries and Galloway, Moray, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk and East Renfrewshire from the SNP, while retaining Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.
Anybody know any bands looking for a keyboard player?
They're looking for Maths teachers too......oh, Nats, sums.....forget it......
Speaking as a former Philly area resident, I must say I'm glad I don't live there now.
The NFL is holding the Draft there for 3 nights starting tonight. They've built an auditorium with the stage on the steps of the Art Museum (think Rocky) and they've closed Ben Franklin Parkway too.
It's bad enough here with part of I-85 closed north of downtown in both directions, a road which carries 400k vehicles a day.
After 2 years in Philly the draft moves to the Cowboys practice facility in Frisco TX.
I know some folks that are working there this weekend. Looks good!
The poll suggests the Conservatives will win West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, Aberdeen South, Perth and North Perthshire, Dumfries and Galloway, Moray, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk and East Renfrewshire from the SNP, while retaining Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.
Anybody know any bands looking for a keyboard player?
"Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.
The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still......................"
Speaking as a former Philly area resident, I must say I'm glad I don't live there now.
The NFL is holding the Draft there for 3 nights starting tonight. They've built an auditorium with the stage on the steps of the Art Museum (think Rocky) and they've closed Ben Franklin Parkway too.
It's bad enough here with part of I-85 closed north of downtown in both directions, a road which carries 400k vehicles a day.
After 2 years in Philly the draft moves to the Cowboys practice facility in Frisco TX.
Of course, as you aren't a fan of the old hand egg it isn't of any interest ;-)
Remember these figures are at the moment of peak Brexit optimism. It will be downhill from here, and Nicola Sturgeon will be shown to have been acting in the (Scottish) national interest in making a plan for an independence referendum.
But we've just had a thread on "the tide has turned to Regret".....how can it be peak Brexit optimism?
So, about this claim from the nutty Nat about a 10% swing TO the SNP .......
That was for the local elections which compared to what they achieved in 2012 is entirely possible in some parts of the country - Glasgow/ Central Belt. But there is no way that will happen in the more rural areas.
Remember these figures are at the moment of peak Brexit optimism. It will be downhill from here, and Nicola Sturgeon will be shown to have been acting in the (Scottish) national interest in making a plan for an independence referendum.
But we've just had a thread on "the tide has turned to Regret".....how can it be peak Brexit optimism?
Margin of error Bregret so far...
In all seriousness, simple logic suggest that this election will be the high-water mark for May nationwide. The question is whether unionism will be tainted by association with the Tory brand as the sheen wears off.
Labour's rating of 18% is not too bad by recent standards . Today's GB poll had crossbreaks giving them 19% with the Tories on 25%. The SNP vote has dropped more sharply so Labour might squeak the odd gain - eg East Lothian.
Oh I think the Tory press were boasting a great deal about 12 seats at the weekend. No doubt they will boast again at 8. If the next poll shows four then they will boast about that.
I think the Tories on this site and elsewhere are celebrating too soon.
Oh I think the Tory press were boasting a great deal about 12 seats at the weekend. No doubt they will boast again at 8. If the next poll shows four then they will boast about that.
I think the Tories on this site and elsewhere are celebrating too soon.
Speaking as a former Philly area resident, I must say I'm glad I don't live there now.
The NFL is holding the Draft there for 3 nights starting tonight. They've built an auditorium with the stage on the steps of the Art Museum (think Rocky) and they've closed Ben Franklin Parkway too.
It's bad enough here with part of I-85 closed north of downtown in both directions, a road which carries 400k vehicles a day.
After 2 years in Philly the draft moves to the Cowboys practice facility in Frisco TX.
I'm going to have to look up most of things you've mentioned because I haven't got a clue what it's about apart from I think NFL is National Football League.
Remember these figures are at the moment of peak Brexit optimism. It will be downhill from here, and Nicola Sturgeon will be shown to have been acting in the (Scottish) national interest in making a plan for an independence referendum.
But we've just had a thread on "the tide has turned to Regret".....how can it be peak Brexit optimism?
Margin of error Bregret so far...
In all seriousness, simple logic suggest that this election will be the high-water mark for May nationwide. The question is whether unionism will be tainted by association with the Tory brand as the sheen wears off.
That is why May called the election. It is only declie from here.
"Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.
The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still......................"
Oh my aching sides
If they go down to 110 they would be losing the likes of Wansbeck, Llanelli and Ashton-under-Lyne. Just a bit of fun
Another unionist who resorts to name calling. However you are clearly not aware that the SNP won the locals in 2012 with 33 per cent. They will be up 10 per cent across the country.
Speaking as a former Philly area resident, I must say I'm glad I don't live there now.
The NFL is holding the Draft there for 3 nights starting tonight. They've built an auditorium with the stage on the steps of the Art Museum (think Rocky) and they've closed Ben Franklin Parkway too.
It's bad enough here with part of I-85 closed north of downtown in both directions, a road which carries 400k vehicles a day.
After 2 years in Philly the draft moves to the Cowboys practice facility in Frisco TX.
I'm going to have to look up most of things you've mentioned because I haven't got a clue what it's about apart from I think NFL is National Football League.
It's American Football, as opposed to what they call "Soccer". Remember:
Rugby Football is a hooligan's game played by gentlemen. Association Football is a gentleman's game played by hooligans. American Football is a hooligan's game played by hooligans.
Speaking as a former Philly area resident, I must say I'm glad I don't live there now.
The NFL is holding the Draft there for 3 nights starting tonight. They've built an auditorium with the stage on the steps of the Art Museum (think Rocky) and they've closed Ben Franklin Parkway too.
It's bad enough here with part of I-85 closed north of downtown in both directions, a road which carries 400k vehicles a day.
After 2 years in Philly the draft moves to the Cowboys practice facility in Frisco TX.
I'm going to have to look up most of things you've mentioned because I haven't got a clue what it's about apart from I think NFL is National Football League.
It's American Football, as opposed to what they call "Soccer". Remember:
Rugby Football is a hooligan's game played by gentlemen. Association Football is a gentleman's game played by hooligans. American Football is a hooligan's game played by hooligans.
There was some stat I saw the other day which was something along the lines of team X is the only team in the NFL that went the whole of last season without a player being arrested.
Re: Scotland. We have now had three Scotland-only polls so far in the campaign. The latest YouGov looks much closer to the Survation poll from a week ago than that Panelbase that had the Tories on a third of the vote, but a broad pattern emerges:
1. The SNP are still the dominant party, but they're below 45% in each of the three surveys so far published. 2. The Conservatives are the second party, about 10-15% adrift. 3. Labour are between 10% and 20% behind the Tories, although at this early stage 10% looks like the better estimate. 4. The Lib Dems are stuck in single figures, but we can surmise from the Scottish Parliament elections that they are in with a shout of picking up a couple more seats.
Unless something changes radically, it's obvious that the SNP are going to hold the bulk of their seats, but how far can the Conservatives make inroads? My sense is that they'll need quite a lot of Unionist tactical voting to take place if they are to get very far. The latest poll indicates an SNP to Con swing of 11% nationally, and given that this is bound not to be spread evenly you'd have to give them some sort of a chance in all of the SNP seats in the Tories' top 150 target list, which are as follows:
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Perth & North Perthshire Moray Renfrewshire East Aberdeen South Stirling Edinburgh South West East Lothian Angus Ochil & South Perthshire
My main concern would be that, once you get below Moray on the Tory target list, the rest of the potentially vulnerable seats (Angus excepted) all have the Conservatives in third place behind Labour. Under circumstances where their party was ahead last time, will any meaningful proportion of 2015 Labour voters choose to switch to the Tories to help them eject the SNP? We don't have tables for this latest poll yet; last weeks' Survation poll suggested that 15% of the 2015 Westminster vote for Scottish Labour had switched to the Conservatives; the usual caveats about small samples apply and we could really do with more evidence, but what data we do have available therefore suggests that yes, some Labour voters probably are ready to cross over directly to the Conservative Party.
All of this is cause for cautious optimism amongst Conservatives, but the party has been subjected to such a long nuclear winter in Scotland that frankly I think they could regard having three Scottish seats rather than one as sufficient cause for celebration. But there's still a long way to go...
Remember these figures are at the moment of peak Brexit optimism. It will be downhill from here, and Nicola Sturgeon will be shown to have been acting in the (Scottish) national interest in making a plan for an independence referendum.
But we've just had a thread on "the tide has turned to Regret".....how can it be peak Brexit optimism?
Margin of error Bregret so far...
In all seriousness, simple logic suggest that this election will be the high-water mark for May nationwide. The question is whether unionism will be tainted by association with the Tory brand as the sheen wears off.
That is why May called the election. It is only declie from here.
It's been exactly 12 months since Labour had an opinion poll lead.
And the few that they got were tiny: in terms of any poll of polls or rolling average, Labour have never been ahead at any point during this Parliament. They've also been on a pretty clear downward trajectory for the whole of the last year.
Not really. ICM had them on 27% in late July - ie 9 months ago. Today's Yougov rating of 29% is the highest with that pollster since the end of September - ie 7 months ago.
Looking at a rolling average of all the figures, the graph meanders up and down a little but the clear overall trend is that of a gentle, continuous slide downhill, and has been for a whole year now.
It is too soon to tell whether the most recent data, with Labour managing to score above 25% in all of the last four polls, means that the pattern has been broken: it could be a blip in Labour's decline, or they could've plateaued, or they might even be on their way back up. Too few data points spaced too closely together to plot any discernible change in the longer-term trend.
Things seem quite delicately poised in Scotland it would appear from several surveys. The Tories are certainly on track to pick up a few seats from the SNP with the LDs managing perhaps a couple. The SNP really do seem to be losing ground now, and if they were to drop below 40% - which seemed highly unlikely a few weeks ago - and Labour managed to creep back up to the 22% polled in last year's Holyrood elections the serious possibility might arise of Labour being able to reverse a few of its 2015 losses.Any signs of Labour recovery in Scotland might also prompt No voters who have switched from Labour to the Tories to return home.
It's been exactly 12 months since Labour had an opinion poll lead.
And the few that they got were tiny: in terms of any poll of polls or rolling average, Labour have never been ahead at any point during this Parliament. They've also been on a pretty clear downward trajectory for the whole of the last year.
Not really. ICM had them on 27% in late July - ie 9 months ago. Today's Yougov rating of 29% is the highest with that pollster since the end of September - ie 7 months ago.
Looking at a rolling average of all the figures, the graph meanders up and down a little but the clear overall trend is that of a gentle, continuous slide downhill, and has been for a whole year now.
It is too soon to tell whether the most recent data, with Labour managing to score above 25% in all of the last four polls, means that the pattern has been broken: it could be a blip in Labour's decline, or they could've plateaued, or they might even be on their way back up. Too few data points spaced too closely together to plot any discernible change in the longer-term trend.
But ICM has had Labour in thr 25 % - 28% range for 9 months. Until their most recent poll Yougov has had Labour in the 23% - 28% range since the beginning of December. The 29% is a 7 month high with that pollster.
Speaking as a former Philly area resident, I must say I'm glad I don't live there now.
The NFL is holding the Draft there for 3 nights starting tonight. They've built an auditorium with the stage on the steps of the Art Museum (think Rocky) and they've closed Ben Franklin Parkway too.
It's bad enough here with part of I-85 closed north of downtown in both directions, a road which carries 400k vehicles a day.
After 2 years in Philly the draft moves to the Cowboys practice facility in Frisco TX.
I'm going to have to look up most of things you've mentioned because I haven't got a clue what it's about apart from I think NFL is National Football League.
All you need to know is that America's Team picks 28th in the first round.
It's been exactly 12 months since Labour had an opinion poll lead.
And the few that they got were tiny: in terms of any poll of polls or rolling average, Labour have never been ahead at any point during this Parliament. They've also been on a pretty clear downward trajectory for the whole of the last year.
Not really. ICM had them on 27% in late July - ie 9 months ago. Today's Yougov rating of 29% is the highest with that pollster since the end of September - ie 7 months ago.
Looking at a rolling average of all the figures, the graph meanders up and down a little but the clear overall trend is that of a gentle, continuous slide downhill, and has been for a whole year now.
It is too soon to tell whether the most recent data, with Labour managing to score above 25% in all of the last four polls, means that the pattern has been broken: it could be a blip in Labour's decline, or they could've plateaued, or they might even be on their way back up. Too few data points spaced too closely together to plot any discernible change in the longer-term trend.
But ICM has had Labour in thr 25 % - 28% range for 9 months. Until their most recent poll Yougov has had Labour in the 23% - 28% range since the beginning of December. The 29% is a 7 month high with that pollster.
Taking all companies into account and looking at a rolling average of their figures, Labour has declined from about 33% last April to 26% today. If you plot a graph of the rolling average over time, then the line fluctuates a bit on the way between those two points but the general direction of travel is perfectly obvious: it's a slightly wobbly line rather than a perfectly smooth slope, but it's downhill nonetheless.
That 29% is a single data point, and there are good reasons to suppose that it is an outlier - but since we doubtless won't have too long to wait before we have another half-a-dozen polls from YouGov and various other providers to add to the collection, we'll soon know whether or not something novel has started to happen.
It's been exactly 12 months since Labour had an opinion poll lead.
And the few that they got were tiny: in terms of any poll of polls or rolling average, Labour have never been ahead at any point during this Parliament. They've also been on a pretty clear downward trajectory for the whole of the last year.
Not really. ICM had them on 27% in late July - ie 9 months ago. Today's Yougov rating of 29% is the highest with that pollster since the end of September - ie 7 months ago.
Looking at a rolling average of all the figures, the graph meanders up and down a little but the clear overall trend is that of a gentle, continuous slide downhill, and has been for a whole year now.
It is too soon to tell whether the most recent data, with Labour managing to score above 25% in all of the last four polls, means that the pattern has been broken: it could be a blip in Labour's decline, or they could've plateaued, or they might even be on their way back up. Too few data points spaced too closely together to plot any discernible change in the longer-term trend.
But ICM has had Labour in thr 25 % - 28% range for 9 months. Until their most recent poll Yougov has had Labour in the 23% - 28% range since the beginning of December. The 29% is a 7 month high with that pollster.
Taking all companies into account and looking at a rolling average of their figures, Labour has declined from about 33% last April to 26% today. If you plot a graph of the rolling average over time, then the line fluctuates a bit on the way between those two points but the general direction of travel is perfectly obvious: it's a slightly wobbly line rather than a perfectly smooth slope, but it's downhill nonetheless.
That 29% is a single data point, and there are good reasons to suppose that it is an outlier - but since we doubtless won't have too long to wait before we have another half-a-dozen polls from YouGov and various other providers to add to the collection, we'll soon know whether or not something novel has started to happen.
But the decline mainly took place April - August. No decline at all with ICM since late July or with Yougov since end of September.
It's been exactly 12 months since Labour had an opinion poll lead.
And the few that they got were tiny: in terms of any poll of polls or rolling average, Labour have never been ahead at any point during this Parliament. They've also been on a pretty clear downward trajectory for the whole of the last year.
Not really. ICM had them on 27% in late July - ie 9 months ago. Today's Yougov rating of 29% is the highest with that pollster since the end of September - ie 7 months ago.
Looking at a rolling average of all the figures, the graph meanders up and down a little but the clear overall trend is that of a gentle, continuous slide downhill, and has been for a whole year now.
It is too soon to tell whether the most recent data, with Labour managing to score above 25% in all of the last four polls, means that the pattern has been broken: it could be a blip in Labour's decline, or they could've plateaued, or they might even be on their way back up. Too few data points spaced too closely together to plot any discernible change in the longer-term trend.
But ICM has had Labour in thr 25 % - 28% range for 9 months. Until their most recent poll Yougov has had Labour in the 23% - 28% range since the beginning of December. The 29% is a 7 month high with that pollster.
Taking all companies into account and looking at a rolling average of their figures, Labour has declined from about 33% last April to 26% today. If you plot a graph of the rolling average over time, then the line fluctuates a bit on the way between those two points but the general direction of travel is perfectly obvious: it's a slightly wobbly line rather than a perfectly smooth slope, but it's downhill nonetheless.
That 29% is a single data point, and there are good reasons to suppose that it is an outlier - but since we doubtless won't have too long to wait before we have another half-a-dozen polls from YouGov and various other providers to add to the collection, we'll soon know whether or not something novel has started to happen.
But the decline mainly took place April - August. No decline at all with ICM since late July or with Yougov since end of September.
There has been a steady decline since April last year:
Speaking as a former Philly area resident, I must say I'm glad I don't live there now.
The NFL is holding the Draft there for 3 nights starting tonight. They've built an auditorium with the stage on the steps of the Art Museum (think Rocky) and they've closed Ben Franklin Parkway too.
It's bad enough here with part of I-85 closed north of downtown in both directions, a road which carries 400k vehicles a day.
After 2 years in Philly the draft moves to the Cowboys practice facility in Frisco TX.
I'm going to have to look up most of things you've mentioned because I haven't got a clue what it's about apart from I think NFL is National Football League.
It's American Football, as opposed to what they call "Soccer". Remember:
Rugby Football is a hooligan's game played by gentlemen. Association Football is a gentleman's game played by hooligans. American Football is a hooligan's game played by hooligans.
And Edward Heath was a huge fan of American Football, strangely enough.
It's been exactly 12 months since Labour had an opinion poll lead.
And the few that they got were tiny: in terms of any poll of polls or rolling average, Labour have never been ahead at any point during this Parliament. They've also been on a pretty clear downward trajectory for the whole of the last year.
Not really. ICM had them on 27% in late July - ie 9 months ago. Today's Yougov rating of 29% is the highest with that pollster since the end of September - ie 7 months ago.
Looking at a rolling average of all the figures, the graph meanders up and down a little but the clear overall trend is that of a gentle, continuous slide downhill, and has been for a whole year now.
It is too soon to tell whether the most recent data, with Labour managing to score above 25% in all of the last four polls, means that the pattern has been broken: it could be a blip in Labour's decline, or they could've plateaued, or they might even be on their way back up. Too few data points spaced too closely together to plot any discernible change in the longer-term trend.
But ICM has had Labour in thr 25 % - 28% range for 9 months. Until their most recent poll Yougov has had Labour in the 23% - 28% range since the beginning of December. The 29% is a 7 month high with that pollster.
Taking all companies into account and looking at a rolling average of their figures, Labour has declined from about 33% last April to 26% today. If you plot a graph of the rolling average over time, then the line fluctuates a bit on the way between those two points but the general direction of travel is perfectly obvious: it's a slightly wobbly line rather than a perfectly smooth slope, but it's downhill nonetheless.
That 29% is a single data point, and there are good reasons to suppose that it is an outlier - but since we doubtless won't have too long to wait before we have another half-a-dozen polls from YouGov and various other providers to add to the collection, we'll soon know whether or not something novel has started to happen.
But the decline mainly took place April - August. No decline at all with ICM since late July or with Yougov since end of September.
There has been a steady decline since April last year:
Just perusing the various odds for the Scottish constituencies and see the Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath - the seat of Gordon Brown who was merely 64-14 ahead of the SNP in 2010 - is now a 20/1 shot for Labour to win. It really is hard to fathom how much things have changed in less than 5 years.
Le Pen: I will save France. Macron: I will save France from Le Pen.
Le Pen is playing Macron like a violin. Doesn't he think those who put Jean-François Jalkh into the NF presidency considered the consequences, and in particular, the effect it would have on the campaign, both in the following news cycle and in the remaining week and a half before the vote?
Comments
I'd much rather be on your side of the bet, its a goody.
In all seriousness, simple logic suggest that this election will be the high-water mark for May nationwide. The question is whether unionism will be tainted by association with the Tory brand as the sheen wears off.
I think the Tories on this site and elsewhere are celebrating too soon.
Should there be a referendum- 55
After negotiations before exit- 57
After exit- 59
Which is why Sturgeon has pivoted from "the will of the Scottish People" to "the will of the Scottish Parliament"
Another unionist who resorts to name calling. However you are clearly not aware that the SNP won the locals in 2012 with 33 per cent. They will be up 10 per cent across the country.
Panelbase - SNP lead 11%
Survation - SNP lead 15%
So tonight's YouGov lead of 13% is bang in the middle - so no sign of any movement in terms of the lead.
However SNP is lower than both last week's polls and Con is in line with the lower of the two figures it got last week.
Rugby Football is a hooligan's game played by gentlemen.
Association Football is a gentleman's game played by hooligans.
American Football is a hooligan's game played by hooligans.
1. The SNP are still the dominant party, but they're below 45% in each of the three surveys so far published.
2. The Conservatives are the second party, about 10-15% adrift.
3. Labour are between 10% and 20% behind the Tories, although at this early stage 10% looks like the better estimate.
4. The Lib Dems are stuck in single figures, but we can surmise from the Scottish Parliament elections that they are in with a shout of picking up a couple more seats.
Unless something changes radically, it's obvious that the SNP are going to hold the bulk of their seats, but how far can the Conservatives make inroads? My sense is that they'll need quite a lot of Unionist tactical voting to take place if they are to get very far. The latest poll indicates an SNP to Con swing of 11% nationally, and given that this is bound not to be spread evenly you'd have to give them some sort of a chance in all of the SNP seats in the Tories' top 150 target list, which are as follows:
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfries & Galloway
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine
Perth & North Perthshire
Moray
Renfrewshire East
Aberdeen South
Stirling
Edinburgh South West
East Lothian
Angus
Ochil & South Perthshire
My main concern would be that, once you get below Moray on the Tory target list, the rest of the potentially vulnerable seats (Angus excepted) all have the Conservatives in third place behind Labour. Under circumstances where their party was ahead last time, will any meaningful proportion of 2015 Labour voters choose to switch to the Tories to help them eject the SNP? We don't have tables for this latest poll yet; last weeks' Survation poll suggested that 15% of the 2015 Westminster vote for Scottish Labour had switched to the Conservatives; the usual caveats about small samples apply and we could really do with more evidence, but what data we do have available therefore suggests that yes, some Labour voters probably are ready to cross over directly to the Conservative Party.
All of this is cause for cautious optimism amongst Conservatives, but the party has been subjected to such a long nuclear winter in Scotland that frankly I think they could regard having three Scottish seats rather than one as sufficient cause for celebration. But there's still a long way to go...
It is too soon to tell whether the most recent data, with Labour managing to score above 25% in all of the last four polls, means that the pattern has been broken: it could be a blip in Labour's decline, or they could've plateaued, or they might even be on their way back up. Too few data points spaced too closely together to plot any discernible change in the longer-term trend.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRlx6bIfUMk
That 29% is a single data point, and there are good reasons to suppose that it is an outlier - but since we doubtless won't have too long to wait before we have another half-a-dozen polls from YouGov and various other providers to add to the collection, we'll soon know whether or not something novel has started to happen.
https://goo.gl/7cTbAf (second tab)
I've turned on the compare feature, so if you mouse over the large circles for the averages, you can see the average of each party.
Which is the stronger message?
Le Pen: I will save France.
Macron: I will save France from Le Pen.
What's the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party Twitter account handle?