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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A week tonight and we have 2017’s first big set of elections

SystemSystem Posts: 12,263
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A week tonight and we have 2017’s first big set of elections

So as there are no local by-elections this week, here’s the final part of my estimates for the local elections in Wales and Scotland.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    edited April 2017
    1st like HH in Ceredigion
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited April 2017
    Just a passing shift in the night.
    Where are the Lib Dems?
    edited again. Old age you know.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,795
    edited April 2017
    3rd unlike Labour in Scotland...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Thanks Harry!
  • CommanderShepardCommanderShepard Posts: 135
    edited April 2017
    Fourth like Labour
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    edited April 2017
    Sixth like Nuttall

    Forecasting a dramatic Lab wipeout in Cardiff?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    I'm seeing a lot of edited posts... :D
  • CommanderShepardCommanderShepard Posts: 135
    Cause we are all so slow out of the blocks.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,881
    First like Len McCluskey.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Excellent work as usual Mr Hayfield – many thanks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,161
    Good luck Harry. Which ward are you standing in? From a former Aberystwyth Central voter.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Sixth like Nuttall

    Ahead of the Bus Pass Elvis Party?
  • CommanderShepardCommanderShepard Posts: 135
    On topic, Harrys analysis looks plausible to me. Informative thread as always from Harry, thank you.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    CommanderShepard said:

    Cause we are all so slow out of the blocks.

    Cough
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    Listening to Theresa May tonight it occured to me that it looks like she is going to be doing a lot of evening events and canvassing. This would be unusual but must be traced back to her councillor days when it was the best time to get people at home. Maybe the journalist following her will have to get used to working longer hours
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Toms said:

    Just a passing shift in the night.
    Where are the Lib Dems?
    edited again. Old age you know.

    Where's that Ed Balls flatlining gif?

    Speaking of Balls, I hope everyone is prepared for the big day tomorrow!
  • CommanderShepardCommanderShepard Posts: 135
    bigjohnowls said:

    CommanderShepard said:

    Cause we are all so slow out of the blocks.

    Cough
    Apart from you obviously.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited April 2017
    RobD said:

    Toms said:

    Just a passing shift in the night.
    Where are the Lib Dems?
    edited again. Old age you know.

    Where's that Ed Balls flatlining gif?

    Speaking of Balls, I hope everyone is prepared for the big day tomorrow!
    Wish I knew He's either calculating or blithe.
    another edit.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Speaking of Balls, I hope everyone is prepared for the big day tomorrow!

    Seems to come round earlier every year...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/telepolitics/status/857654604359581697
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    First!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Speaking of Balls, I hope everyone is prepared for the big day tomorrow!

    Seems to come round earlier every year...
    I hear Cadbury's are dropping his name from their promotional material. Insanity!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/rupertmyers/status/857654842453524480
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    On days like today it is a good job with have MI5 and MI6...We wouldn't want anybody in charge who wants to get rid of them!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    edited April 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Listening to Theresa May tonight it occured to me that it looks like she is going to be doing a lot of evening events and canvassing. This would be unusual but must be traced back to her councillor days when it was the best time to get people at home. Maybe the journalist following her will have to get used to working longer hours

    I have been telephoning at CCHQ and Philip May has often been there in the evening phoning too. Tories are canvassing, as are LDs, Corbynistas are tweeting
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    I hear Cadbury's are dropping his name from their promotional material. Insanity!

    Only until the PM complains...
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    FPT:
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Just looking at who has been selected to stand in safe Labour seats with retiring MPs.

    Basically, if you aren't a serving councillor, a union official or married to the chair of the PLP, you don't have much of a chance of selection.

    I thought we were a party that embraced diversity?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    Great stuff Mr Hayfield. Ceredigion council will thank their lucky stars I think.

    I think there are forces at work beyond the normal mechanics - Labour will underperform, and the Tories outperform. There is also a (very) small chance of a SNP collapse. LDs won't get any traction in Scotland in my view.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SandyRentool said:

    I thought we were a party that embraced diversity?

    Ellie Reeves

    Daughter of Labour MPs

    Sister of Labour MP

    Married to Labour MP

    Hoe much more diversity do you want?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    bigjohnowls said:

    1st like HH in Ceredigion

    Hag Harris?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/journostephen/status/857670824916123649
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/857670616618500096
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/tom_watson/status/857670616618500096

    I am going to get myself a nice bottle in myself...To be opened if the nonce finder general loses his seat!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Boris Johnson's sister joins Lib Dems in bid to block Brexit: Rachel Johnson said after the EU referendum her teenage son told her: 'Boris has stolen our futures'
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/rupertmyers/status/857654842453524480

    Any photos of her meeting voters on The Headrow?

    Thought not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    If Labour hold Glasgow that would be a bad night for the SNP and a great night for SLAB, can't see it though
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SandyRentool said:

    Any photos of her meeting voters on The Headrow?

    Thought not.

    https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/857671792080674816
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/tom_watson/status/857670616618500096

    I am going to get myself a nice bottle in myself...To be opened if the nonce finder general loses his seat!
    I think he will be safe, you may have to save it for Angus Robertson
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Great analysis - SNP hope to take Glasgow - turnout 32.4% - will be sig higher !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/journostephen/status/857670824916123649

    Brilliant :D
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Thanks Harry!

    Exciting times... :D
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Scott_P said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Any photos of her meeting voters on The Headrow?

    Thought not.

    https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/857671792080674816
    Lickspittles in a factory are not voters on the streets of Leeds!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    Scott_P said:

    SandyRentool said:

    I thought we were a party that embraced diversity?

    Ellie Reeves

    Daughter of Labour MPs

    Sister of Labour MP

    Married to Labour MP

    Hoe much more diversity do you want?
    I'd guess he wanted a little more.

    Labour has clearly been a hereditary oligarchy for some while. Somehow it's ok to suggest that Mr Blair's child might be worthier than average. Trump's doing this too.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2017
    foxinsoxuk said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SandyRentool said:

    Scott_P said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Any photos of her meeting voters on The Headrow?

    Thought not.

    https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/857671792080674816
    Lickspittles in a factory are not voters on the streets of Leeds!
    Were the workers told to not speak to the press again?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Which constituency is that factory in?
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Listening to Theresa May tonight it occured to me that it looks like she is going to be doing a lot of evening events and canvassing. This would be unusual but must be traced back to her councillor days when it was the best time to get people at home. Maybe the journalist following her will have to get used to working longer hours

    I have been telephoning at CCHQ and Philip May has often been there in the evening phoning too. Tories are canvassing, as are LDs, Corbynistas are tweeting
    Preaching to the converted. FFS how many traditional Labour voters will be on a Corbynista tweetline.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    They have an #EdBallsDay SOCIAL?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Unless I've misread the analysis SNP +3% for the Council elections seems rather low to me does it not?
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,252
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Which constituency is that factory in?

    NE Derbyshire
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Reuters: BREAKING: United Airlines reaches settlement of undisclosed amount with Dr. David Dao, passenger dragged from plane - law firm
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2017
    SquareRoot said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    SandyRentool said:

    Scott_P said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Any photos of her meeting voters on The Headrow?

    Thought not.

    https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/857671792080674816
    Lickspittles in a factory are not voters on the streets of Leeds!
    They will be if you turn up. I suspect it's been a while since they had a good lynching in Leeds.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Scott_P said:

    @Reuters: BREAKING: United Airlines reaches settlement of undisclosed amount with Dr. David Dao, passenger dragged from plane - law firm

    They've also upped their comp to $10,000 maximum for being bumped voluntarily.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Which constituency is that factory in?

    NE Derbyshire
    Should be an easy Tory gain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    foxinsoxuk said:

    SquareRoot said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    UK unemployment though is now lower than every G7 nation bar Germany and Japan
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    foxinsoxuk said:

    SquareRoot said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    What has happened to the denominator - ie. the employment figures?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    Arthur_Penny said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Listening to Theresa May tonight it occured to me that it looks like she is going to be doing a lot of evening events and canvassing. This would be unusual but must be traced back to her councillor days when it was the best time to get people at home. Maybe the journalist following her will have to get used to working longer hours

    I have been telephoning at CCHQ and Philip May has often been there in the evening phoning too. Tories are canvassing, as are LDs, Corbynistas are tweeting
    Preaching to the converted. FFS how many traditional Labour voters will be on a Corbynista tweetline.
    They may have a rude shock when they realise the general election electorate is rather different to the Labour leadership electorate
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    SandyRentool said:

    Scott_P said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Any photos of her meeting voters on The Headrow?

    Thought not.

    https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/857671792080674816
    Lickspittles in a factory are not voters on the streets of Leeds!
    You see this complaining every election, I cannot say I find it particularly bothersome that party leader stage manage all their appearances. Yes, I'd like it to be otherwise, but considering any non-managed appearance would almost certainly be taken advantage of by opponents, I can see why so many don't think it worth it.

    And yes I know it can and has been done, I'm just saying I'm no longer irked by it.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2017
    foxinsoxuk said:

    SquareRoot said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    You ignored what I said.. .. it's a direct result of Labour mismanagement of the economy.. clue... which yr did this graph start..
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,290
    All very interesting, Harry - but surprised Flintshire and Wrexham are unchanged when other areas more favourable to Lab are going blue (or bluer).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Listening to Theresa May tonight it occured to me that it looks like she is going to be doing a lot of evening events and canvassing. This would be unusual but must be traced back to her councillor days when it was the best time to get people at home. Maybe the journalist following her will have to get used to working longer hours

    Yes, this is her style.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited April 2017
    SandyRentool said:

    Just looking at who has been selected to stand in safe Labour seats with retiring MPs.

    Basically, if you aren't a serving councillor, a union official or married to the chair of the PLP, you don't have much of a chance of selection.

    I thought we were a party that embraced diversity?

    Maybe they get in the diversity at the councillor level and union official, so then by selecting from those, it is still diverse - cllrs are often full or at least part time workers still, being a cllr doesn't make you not a teacher or banker or whatever. And if you have people with diverse experience and they've already gotten elected, albeit at lower levels, that has to give a leg up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,881
    edited April 2017
    Interesting piece from Bob Marshall-Andrews on his defection to the Lib Dems.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/former-mp-bob-marshall-andrews-why-i-m-leaving-labour-and-joining-lib-dems
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    foxinsoxuk said:

    SquareRoot said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    There is zero chance of Conservatives getting 39 seats in Cardiff . A good result for them will be around 22 . Even the local Plaid man from Cardiff thinks they will only get 7/8 seats .
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/joemurphylondon/status/857675866465345537
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    Le Pen's National Front 'took 5m euros from EU'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39733452
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    SquareRoot said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
    In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    edited April 2017
    kle4 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Just looking at who has been selected to stand in safe Labour seats with retiring MPs.

    Basically, if you aren't a serving councillor, a union official or married to the chair of the PLP, you don't have much of a chance of selection.

    I thought we were a party that embraced diversity?

    Maybe they get in the diversity at the councillor level and union official, so then by selecting from those, it is still diverse - cllrs are often full or at least part time workers still, being a cllr doesn't make you not a teacher or banker or whatever. And if you have people with diverse experience and they've already gotten elected, albeit at lower levels, that has to give a leg up.
    Plenty of former councillors are standing for the Tories too, including the PM, the last PM to have been a councillor was John Major and I think you have to go back to Clement Attlee before him
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    logical_song said:

    Le Pen's National Front 'took 5m euros from EU'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39733452

    Considerably less than the Kinnock family.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Alistair said:

    Unless I've misread the analysis SNP +3% for the Council elections seems rather low to me does it not?

    I'd expect SNP & SCON up 10% each on 1st pref - STV will flatter SLAB's result:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_local_elections,_2017
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    logical_song said:

    Le Pen's National Front 'took 5m euros from EU'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39733452

    British taxpayers' money. Funding Fascists. How I wish we'd voted Remain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    logical_song said:

    Le Pen's National Front 'took 5m euros from EU'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39733452

    Lots of party's have taken lots of euros from the EU, maybe the headline should specify they weren't supposed to take that money.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    https://twitter.com/b3thany/status/857676690117492736
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    IanB2 said:

    Boris Johnson's sister joins Lib Dems in bid to block Brexit: Rachel Johnson said after the EU referendum her teenage son told her: 'Boris has stolen our futures'

    ... and he didn't even get to be PM, thanks to his friend Michael.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joemurphylondon/status/857675866465345537

    Can't see Labour withdrawing from 400 seats
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    kle4 said:

    logical_song said:

    Le Pen's National Front 'took 5m euros from EU'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39733452

    Lots of party's have taken lots of euros from the EU, maybe the headline should specify they weren't supposed to take that money.
    It was a headline.
    "The far-right National Front (FN) of French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen may have defrauded the European Parliament of about €5m (£4m; $5.4m), EU sources say."
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    logical_song said:

    Le Pen's National Front 'took 5m euros from EU'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39733452

    Considerably less than the Kinnock family.
    No, not really.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,730
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    SquareRoot said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
    In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
    Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joemurphylondon/status/857675866465345537

    I actually appreciate Corbyn's stance, so far, against the misnamed progressive alliance. If the Greens are so concerned about stopping individual Tory MPs they can choose to not field candidates, Labour (in theory) are seeking to be in government and need to stand as widely as they can, and apart from Lucas's seat have no reason to suppose (I would guess) in any other seat that the Greens could win where they could not.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited April 2017
    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joemurphylondon/status/857675866465345537

    Does the fruit loop suggest which party replaces them? - Let me guess….
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Black_Rook said:

    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.

    My condolences.

    Might I direct your attention to www.asoftmurmur.com ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    Black_Rook said:

    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.

    Kumbaya..
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2017
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    logical_song said:

    Le Pen's National Front 'took 5m euros from EU'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39733452

    Considerably less than the Kinnock family.
    Though did the Kinnocks do it by alleged fraud*?

    I am beginning to think that the 8.4 on BF for Macron 65-70% is good value, He did seem to slightly exceed his polling in the first round while she underachieved.

    *More worrying to me is how Marine put a holocaust denier as temporary leader of the FN.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    SquareRoot said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
    In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
    It could be pointed out that this graph only shows the change in real wages since a random point. It doesn't actually compare real wage rates.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    edited April 2017
    logical_song said:

    kle4 said:

    logical_song said:

    Le Pen's National Front 'took 5m euros from EU'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39733452

    Lots of party's have taken lots of euros from the EU, maybe the headline should specify they weren't supposed to take that money.
    It was a headline.
    "The far-right National Front (FN) of French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen may have defrauded the European Parliament of about €5m (£4m; $5.4m), EU sources say."
    This story has been doing the rounds for weeks, her supporters don't care, indeed she is up to 41% with Opinionway today. Fillon still got almost 20% despite far worse headlines, their supporters see the allegations as a vendetta
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    logical_song said:

    kle4 said:

    logical_song said:

    Le Pen's National Front 'took 5m euros from EU'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39733452

    Lots of party's have taken lots of euros from the EU, maybe the headline should specify they weren't supposed to take that money.
    It was a headline.
    "The far-right National Front (FN) of French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen may have defrauded the European Parliament of about €5m (£4m; $5.4m), EU sources say."
    Sub heading. Headline from the page I'm on (and more importantly the line that people click on to get to the page) says 'Le Pen's National Front 'took 5m euros from EU'

    It was only a quibble. Took is implicit of wrongdoing, but defrauded would be clear. 'Defrauded' for safety reasons.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,881
    Black_Rook said:

    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.

    Get a husky to provide the vocals.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joemurphylondon/status/857675866465345537

    I actually appreciate Corbyn's stance, so far, against the misnamed progressive alliance. If the Greens are so concerned about stopping individual Tory MPs they can choose to not field candidates, Labour (in theory) are seeking to be in government and need to stand as widely as they can, and apart from Lucas's seat have no reason to suppose (I would guess) in any other seat that the Greens could win where they could not.
    By the Greens' own logic, they should be defending Brighton Pavilion, and are entitled to a crack at Bristol West (where they're second and the Tories have no chance of winning.) However, they should stand down just about everywhere else. The Progressive Alliance demands such sacrifices.

    It would also save an awful lot of lost deposits.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2017
    Black_Rook said:

    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.

    Holy Molly lollipops.. they are appearing in churches...as well as flutes. a fecking nightmare
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    williamglenn said:

    Interesting piece from Bob Marshall-Andrews on his defection to the Lib Dems.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/former-mp-bob-marshall-andrews-why-i-m-leaving-labour-and-joining-lib-dems

    Indeed it is! The point that leapt out at me was: "I don’t want to spend the rest of my life talking about renationalising the railways while millions of people move across the world because of famine, war and climate change."

    And not just for those reasons. Economic migration is the big driver now, and for totally understandable reasons.

    Two key themes in Socialism are "The redistribution of Wealth" and "Internationalism". Reconciling this is tricky. In practice the bulk of the redistribution has been within the UK. International Redistribution, in the form of Overseas Aid, has been relatively small.

    What actually is the 21st century socialist answer to all of this, because it is a hard sell to workers in first-world countries that they must actually accept lower standards of living in the name of fair and international wealth distribution.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    SquareRoot said:

    Black_Rook said:

    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.

    Holy Molly lollipops.. they are appearing in churches...as well as flutes. a fecking nightmare
    Act now, and act swiftly. If not you'll get 'recorders'.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    On a pedantic note, Aberdeen City Council is currently a Labour/Conservative/Independent coalition, so would be an SNP gain.

    Serendipitously..

    'You pay £200,000 bill to fix council boss’s boundary wall'

    http://tinyurl.com/lzhkn3p
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Black_Rook said:

    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.

    Electric or acoustic?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHWnFJ4_61U
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Black_Rook said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joemurphylondon/status/857675866465345537

    I actually appreciate Corbyn's stance, so far, against the misnamed progressive alliance. If the Greens are so concerned about stopping individual Tory MPs they can choose to not field candidates, Labour (in theory) are seeking to be in government and need to stand as widely as they can, and apart from Lucas's seat have no reason to suppose (I would guess) in any other seat that the Greens could win where they could not.
    By the Greens' own logic, they should be defending Brighton Pavilion, and are entitled to a crack at Bristol West
    In fact, wouldn't the only chance a non 'progressive' have of taking Bristol West be thanks to the Greens taking votes from Labour or LD and, god forbid, a Tory sneaks in somehow on a 4 way marginal?

    Should do a DUP/UUP and divvy up areas.

    I guess the Green logic would be they deserve a crack in Bristol West and one of the other progressives should stand down, on the basis that they will stand down in other areas and save those MPs. Trouble is they've already done that in several areas without urging from Labour, so no leverage.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Black_Rook said:

    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.

    Buy a drumkit.

    He pulls a knife, you pull a gun.
This discussion has been closed.