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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A week tonight and we have 2017’s first big set of elections

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  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,668

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.

    Get a husky to provide the vocals.
    In favour: would like a pet.

    Against: Walkies in the rain, vet bills, shed fur everywhere, live in 2nd floor flat and out at work all day.

    On balance, may have to decline.

    Kumbaya.

    Could join in with tambourine, I suppose?

    Then again, perhaps not.
    Freggles said:

    Might I direct your attention to www.asoftmurmur.com ?

    Hmmm, not such a bad idea should racket become a regular nuisance.

    Fortunately, his strumming (and accompanying attempts at singing, which were far more painful) appear to have desisted for the night.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,668

    Which constituency is that factory in?

    NE Derbyshire
    Should be an easy Tory gain.
    So why is she campaigning there?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,034

    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.

    Buy a drumkit.

    He pulls a knife, you pull a gun.
    That way lies a bad road, full of badly played didgeridoos and bagpipes. Soul destroying.

    You should move.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,177
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    I actually appreciate Corbyn's stance, so far, against the misnamed progressive alliance. If the Greens are so concerned about stopping individual Tory MPs they can choose to not field candidates, Labour (in theory) are seeking to be in government and need to stand as widely as they can, and apart from Lucas's seat have no reason to suppose (I would guess) in any other seat that the Greens could win where they could not.
    By the Greens' own logic, they should be defending Brighton Pavilion, and are entitled to a crack at Bristol West
    In fact, wouldn't the only chance a non 'progressive' have of taking Bristol West be thanks to the Greens taking votes from Labour or LD and, god forbid, a Tory sneaks in somehow on a 4 way marginal?

    Should do a DUP/UUP and divvy up areas.

    I guess the Green logic would be they deserve a crack in Bristol West and one of the other progressives should stand down, on the basis that they will stand down in other areas and save those MPs. Trouble is they've already done that in several areas without urging from Labour, so no leverage.
    Ah, splits on the left. A beautiful thing.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,314
    Sean_F said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
    In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
    Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.
    That is now regarded as a good thing by middle class leftists - the British working class are deemed to have failed and need to be replaced.
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    Does anyone know, is the British National Party or the (British) National Front, or similar, putting up candidates for the General election? Or is there not perceived to be any reason to do so nowadays?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    On days like today it is a good job with have MI5 and MI6...We wouldn't want anybody in charge who wants to get rid of them!

    No one would be that stupid..... oh
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,668
    Sean_F said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
    In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
    Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.
    Yet the same magazine argues immigration is an unambiguous economic good.

    FWIW, conversely, people moving from benefits into full-time work will usually be individually better off, but such new jobs will drag down the average wage rate growth.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,131

    Which constituency is that factory in?

    NE Derbyshire
    Should be an easy Tory gain.
    So why is she campaigning there?
    To head straight to Bolsover might look a bit triumphalist at this stage.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,668

    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.

    Buy a drumkit.

    He pulls a knife, you pull a gun.
    Ha!
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    The good doctor is upset that he can no longer hire melting Mediterranean beauties at bottom dollar to gratefully empty his bed pans.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Just looking at who has been selected to stand in safe Labour seats with retiring MPs.

    Basically, if you aren't a serving councillor, a union official or married to the chair of the PLP, you don't have much of a chance of selection.

    I thought we were a party that embraced diversity?

    LOL - took you long enough
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,034

    Does anyone know, is the British National Party or the (British) National Front, or similar, putting up candidates for the General election? Or is there not perceived to be any reason to do so nowadays?

    They cannot do much worse than last time. LibertyGB, a far right party, stood 3 candidates for 418 votes last time (barely better than the hilariously named far lefty Left Unity's 455, and lowest for any party standing more than 1 candidate), the National Front 7 for just over 1000, and even the BNP only 8 candidates for well under 2000.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,403
    Pulpstar said:

    Which constituency is that factory in?

    NE Derbyshire
    Should be an easy Tory gain.
    So why is she campaigning there?
    To head straight to Bolsover might look a bit triumphalist at this stage.
    That factory is in Skinner's home town. He'll be [censored on grounds of taste] at her visiting Clay Cross.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,314
    IanB2 said:

    Boris Johnson's sister joins Lib Dems in bid to block Brexit: Rachel Johnson said after the EU referendum her teenage son told her: 'Boris has stolen our futures'

    He sounds like that whiny property developer's son who so impressed EdM at a Labour conference.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2042623/Rory-Weal-Child-star-Labour-conference-truth-life-poverty.html
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2017

    Just looking at who has been selected to stand in safe Labour seats with retiring MPs.

    Basically, if you aren't a serving councillor, a union official or married to the chair of the PLP, you don't have much of a chance of selection.

    I thought we were a party that embraced diversity?

    That's nepotist-ist
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,314
    Is there a betting market for the number of factories May will visit before the election ?

    And for the number of schoolsandhospitals that Corbyn will ?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,034
    Yes, but it might limit the damage to Lab somewhat in terms of the threat from the left and centre other than the Tories.
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    ITMAITMA Posts: 9
    Scott_P said:

    Any photos of her meeting voters on The Headrow?

    Thought not.

    twitter.com/theresa_may/status/857671792080674816
    Factory workers are lickspittles eh?
    Which brave new world do you inhabit...

    However you do neatly encapsulate the misbegotten bigotry pervading this site ever since the referendum and more so now that the election is up and running. It has all been been ably led by OGH who has been relentlessly trolling his own website customers about brexit.

    Its all very tiresome and tortuous to wade through. Hardly wprth making a return. Painful. Sad.
    It make you feel like this man
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WAwuSK36Gw
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kle4 said:

    Does anyone know, is the British National Party or the (British) National Front, or similar, putting up candidates for the General election? Or is there not perceived to be any reason to do so nowadays?

    They cannot do much worse than last time. LibertyGB, a far right party, stood 3 candidates for 418 votes last time (barely better than the hilariously named far lefty Left Unity's 455, and lowest for any party standing more than 1 candidate), the National Front 7 for just over 1000, and even the BNP only 8 candidates for well under 2000.
    And with Labour and LD squeezing the anti-Semitic vote, it's thin pickings out there.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,177
    Welcome @ITMA
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    Are disposable incomes a more significant indicator than gross wages as a measure where the tax system is being modified, e.g the tax allowance is being drastically reformed?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Scott_P said:
    Seats they cannot win - that's a lot of seats.... just saying.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    FWIW, in my canvassing (almost exclusively of 2015 Lab voters), the "stop a Tory landslide" message is proving effective in getting defectors to the LibDems and Greens back on side, is having a little bit of success in making the apathetic "probably won't vote at all this time" people think again - but defectors to the Tories aren't having a bar of it.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,802
    People want to stand on the grave of the Labour party and tramp the dirt down.
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    When Cass was a sophomore, planned to go to Swathmore
    But she changed her mind one day.
    Standin' on the turnpike, thumb out to hitchhike,
    "Take me to New York right away."
    When Denny met Cass he gave her love bumps;
    Called John and Zal and that was the Mugwumps.
    McGuinn and McGuire couldn't get no higher
    But that's what they were aimin' at.
    And no one's gettin' fat except Mama Cass.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
    In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
    Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.
    Worth remembering too that wages only measure the income of those who have a job, it doesn't take into account those who are left unemployed.

    Italy 2009 unemployment rate 7%; it's now 12%

    UK 2009 unemployment rate 6.7%; it's now 4.8%

    We've not just found jobs for our own citizens deflating our average wages, our real wages have been deflated by taking on continents poor too. Any comparison is absurd.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    The good doctor is upset that he can no longer hire melting Mediterranean beauties at bottom dollar to gratefully empty his bed pans.
    It is a shame, they are excellent nurses, but you are right about the Exodus.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/mar/18/nhs-eu-nurses-quit-record-numbers

    I think it wrong to blame Brexit for the nursing crisis, the devaluation of Sterling and return to growth of the Eurozone does make returning to Iberia attractive, particularly for the Spanish.

    We do seem to have recruited some excellent Somali nurses though.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Sean_F said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
    In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
    Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.
    But hey, lets keep doing more of the same whilst complaining about the effects.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,131
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Which constituency is that factory in?

    NE Derbyshire
    Should be an easy Tory gain.
    So why is she campaigning there?
    To head straight to Bolsover might look a bit triumphalist at this stage.
    That factory is in Skinner's home town. He'll be [censored on grounds of taste] at her visiting Clay Cross.
    Lol it is 3 miles from my normal rounds !
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,077
    edited April 2017

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,802
    Floater said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
    In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
    Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.
    But hey, lets keep doing more of the same whilst complaining about the effects.
    Isn't that effectively Conservative party policy?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,034

    People want to stand on the grave of the Labour party and tramp the dirt down.
    They are polling 0-6pts down on last time. People may want Labour to take a beating, but not go away.
  • Options
    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.

    Buy a drumkit.

    He pulls a knife, you pull a gun.
    Ha!
    Buy a bass, down tune it and play some Korn through a very big amp. The furniture will move.
  • Options
    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    edited April 2017
    B Marshall-Andrews in the N Statesman:

    One kind of knows knows what he means but, erm, what does he mean?

    'I believe desperately in the politics of the 21st century, and Labour is at best paying lip service to it'

    What are the politics of the C21?

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/former-mp-bob-marshall-andrews-why-i-m-leaving-labour-and-joining-lib-dems
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,177
    calum said:

    Saved by Twitter

    twitter.com/flowerchucker/status/857670532908634116

    Someone needs to remind him of Cameron's twitter maxim.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    What degree are you working towards ?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,668
    Danny565 said:

    FWIW, in my canvassing (almost exclusively of 2015 Lab voters), the "stop a Tory landslide" message is proving effective in getting defectors to the LibDems and Greens back on side, is having a little bit of success in making the apathetic "probably won't vote at all this time" people think again - but defectors to the Tories aren't having a bar of it.
    Where is this?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,314
    Danny565 said:

    FWIW, in my canvassing (almost exclusively of 2015 Lab voters), the "stop a Tory landslide" message is proving effective in getting defectors to the LibDems and Greens back on side, is having a little bit of success in making the apathetic "probably won't vote at all this time" people think again - but defectors to the Tories aren't having a bar of it.
    Any views on how many wavering Labour voters know the backstory of Corybn and what effect it will have when it becomes more widely known ?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    I actually appreciate Corbyn's stance, so far, against the misnamed progressive alliance. If the Greens are so concerned about stopping individual Tory MPs they can choose to not field candidates, Labour (in theory) are seeking to be in government and need to stand as widely as they can, and apart from Lucas's seat have no reason to suppose (I would guess) in any other seat that the Greens could win where they could not.
    If there was a character in a book called Mrs Simpkins, I would picture her as Caroline Lucas... her face just says Simpkins to me!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,668
    chestnut said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    Are disposable incomes a more significant indicator than gross wages as a measure where the tax system is being modified, e.g the tax allowance is being drastically reformed?
    At the lowest incomes, certainly.

    What matters is are people, overall, better off or not.

    The UK has enjoyed solid economic growth for some time now. So I'd say: yes.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,034
    calum said:
    Wow, flowerchucker, that really means...jack shit.

    God, at least the SNP's online army comes out to vote to back up their online confidence.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,077

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    What degree are you working towards ?
    Just straight Economics.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    This won't make you feel better:

    https://twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/857486541496737792
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,668

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,131
    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Seats they cannot win - that's a lot of seats.... just saying.
    Bristol West, Norwich South, are the three top targets and probably have the right potential demographic mix.

    Past that Sheffield Central perhaps (Bennett is running there)

    Most of the country is impossible for them.

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,164
    calum said:
    Before the 2015 GE wasn't there a sack David Cameron one that was regularly top of twitter trends ?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sean_F said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
    In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
    Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.
    Worth remembering too that wages only measure the income of those who have a job, it doesn't take into account those who are left unemployed.

    Italy 2009 unemployment rate 7%; it's now 12%

    UK 2009 unemployment rate 6.7%; it's now 4.8%

    We've not just found jobs for our own citizens deflating our average wages, our real wages have been deflated by taking on continents poor too. Any comparison is absurd.
    If you are a British worker on stagnant or falling wages in Britain then that is little compensation.

    When our spending bubble pops, are things going to get better?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,177

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    This won't make you feel better:

    https://twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/857486541496737792
    Does that assume no changes in policy too? Can see the pension age going up faster than expected, for instance.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ITMA said:

    Scott_P said:

    Any photos of her meeting voters on The Headrow?

    Thought not.

    twitter.com/theresa_may/status/857671792080674816
    Factory workers are lickspittles eh?
    Which brave new world do you inhabit...

    However you do neatly encapsulate the misbegotten bigotry pervading this site ever since the referendum and more so now that the election is up and running. It has all been been ably led by OGH who has been relentlessly trolling his own website customers about brexit.

    Its all very tiresome and tortuous to wade through. Hardly wprth making a return. Painful. Sad.
    It make you feel like this man
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WAwuSK36Gw
    Factory workers are proles.
    Proles are Leave voters.
    Leave voters are bigots.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Speaking of Balls, I hope everyone is prepared for the big day tomorrow!

    Seems to come round earlier every year...
    Had thought it wasn't until May, or is that #edballsdefenestrationday
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,177

    Sean_F said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
    In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
    Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.
    Worth remembering too that wages only measure the income of those who have a job, it doesn't take into account those who are left unemployed.

    Italy 2009 unemployment rate 7%; it's now 12%

    UK 2009 unemployment rate 6.7%; it's now 4.8%

    We've not just found jobs for our own citizens deflating our average wages, our real wages have been deflated by taking on continents poor too. Any comparison is absurd.
    If you are a British worker on stagnant or falling wages in Britain then that is little compensation.

    When our spending bubble pops, are things going to get better?
    How much of that is made up for by increases in the personal allowance?
  • Options
    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.

    Start learning the violin. That'll teach him.

  • Options
    PaganPagan Posts: 259
    fpt
    hmm who to vote for

    May: trailer park Galadriel who succumbed and accepted custody of the one ring
    Corbyn: A samwise gamgee figure who sympathises with Mordor
    Farron: Just Gollum
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,164
    edited April 2017
    The "defection" of bojo sister isn't quite as straight forward. Despite bojo snr and brother being Tories she only became a member after meeting David Cameron in 2008? but left in disgust in 2011. Seems like she joined to become a candidate but lib dem rules require you to have been a member for a year so an early election buggeres that plan.
  • Options
    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Seats they cannot win - that's a lot of seats.... just saying.
    I note this part...

    The Greens are demanding Labour support them in their battle to take the Isle of Wight from the Conservatives.

    Ms Lucas said: “It’s got an unpopular Tory MP, UKIP were second in 2015 and are now in quite a lot of disarray, and we were third ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems. So that would be an obvious place where it really wouldn’t hurt Labour.

    "They’re never going to win the Isle of Wight.”

    Conservative Andrew Turner 28,591 40.7
    UKIP Iain McKie 14,888 21.2
    Green Vix Lowthion 9,404 13.4
    Labour Stewart Blackmore 8,984 12.8

    So Lab less than 500 votes behind the Green last time
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,668

    It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.

    Pray for me.

    Turn up your stereo to maximum, and do your own rendition of Frank Sinatra's New York, New York.
  • Options

    Danny565 said:

    FWIW, in my canvassing (almost exclusively of 2015 Lab voters), the "stop a Tory landslide" message is proving effective in getting defectors to the LibDems and Greens back on side, is having a little bit of success in making the apathetic "probably won't vote at all this time" people think again - but defectors to the Tories aren't having a bar of it.
    Any views on how many wavering Labour voters know the backstory of Corybn and what effect it will have when it becomes more widely known ?
    Frankly, I don't think many people would believe Corbyn's backstory...
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    What degree are you working towards ?
    Just straight Economics.
    The dismal science. Is it too late for you to change to something worthwhile ?
  • Options
    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    We have a two speed economy, in the private sector anyway.
    There is a low margin economy which has low wage growth and low promotion prospects (I used to work in it), this depresses our productivity and wage growth figures but it keeps people in work.
    We also have a higher margin economy with better wage growth and promotion prospects, which has high productivity (I have just moved into such a sector six months ago) and is growing at a decent pace.

    Moving between the two can be done, but for a lot of people it is impossible. I got a little lucky and did so.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,077

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    This won't make you feel better:

    https://twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/857486541496737792
    Jesus, if only we had a party in a dominant enough position to put forward changes in their manifesto to fix that.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,314
    Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1

    They only let me have £7.10.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Sean_F said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
    In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
    Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.
    Worth remembering too that wages only measure the income of those who have a job, it doesn't take into account those who are left unemployed.

    Italy 2009 unemployment rate 7%; it's now 12%

    UK 2009 unemployment rate 6.7%; it's now 4.8%

    We've not just found jobs for our own citizens deflating our average wages, our real wages have been deflated by taking on continents poor too. Any comparison is absurd.
    We actually act as a pressure relief for a number of European nations.

    Imagine if they stayed at home unemployed.... unrest here we come
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,131

    Seems like she joined to become a candidate but lib dem rules require you to have been a member for a year so an early election buggeres that plan.

    She should have joined earlier, then she could have run in the locals. No 1 year rule on that.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,919
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    What degree are you working towards ?
    Just straight Economics.
    It's probably possible to make an argument that if you are thinking of leaving the UK once you've studied Economics then you didn't understand the subject.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    The good doctor is upset that he can no longer hire melting Mediterranean beauties at bottom dollar to gratefully empty his bed pans.
    It is a shame, they are excellent nurses, but you are right about the Exodus.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/mar/18/nhs-eu-nurses-quit-record-numbers

    I think it wrong to blame Brexit for the nursing crisis, the devaluation of Sterling and return to growth of the Eurozone does make returning to Iberia attractive, particularly for the Spanish.

    We do seem to have recruited some excellent Somali nurses though.
    Why do you so want to plunder other countries health systems?

  • Options
    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    What degree are you working towards ?
    Just straight Economics.
    The dismal science. Is it too late for you to change to something worthwhile ?
    Hey! I did Business Economics....
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,164
    Pulpstar said:

    Seems like she joined to become a candidate but lib dem rules require you to have been a member for a year so an early election buggeres that plan.

    She should have joined earlier, then she could have run in the locals. No 1 year rule on that.
    I get the feeling she might not be interested in that.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,077

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    What degree are you working towards ?
    Just straight Economics.
    The dismal science. Is it too late for you to change to something worthwhile ?
    Nope, still quite early on in the course. At least I'll never have to do another chemical equation in my life ;).
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Macron has banned Russia Today and Sputnik from his campaign events. Putin must be quaking in his boots! (The report in the Guardian uses the Trumpian phrase "fake news" five times. Everyone's so alert to psychological warfare these days that I wonder how any of the work ever gets done :) .)
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    RobD said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    This won't make you feel better:

    https://twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/857486541496737792
    Does that assume no changes in policy too? Can see the pension age going up faster than expected, for instance.
    Exactly, you can triple lock all you like if you push the starting age of drawing the pension up faster than planned. It's going into the 70's folks, just a question of when.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
    In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
    Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.
    But hey, lets keep doing more of the same whilst complaining about the effects.
    Isn't that effectively Conservative party policy?
    No idea, ask a tory
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,585

    calum said:
    Before the 2015 GE wasn't there a sack David Cameron one that was regularly top of twitter trends ?
    21st century political activism in a nutshell, pressing a button to tell likeminded people you agree with them.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,131

    Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1

    They only let me have £7.10.

    Hah. Only £3.18 for me, but that price is just silly.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,668

    Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1

    They only let me have £7.10.

    It's a deft trick, but I try and spread my bets with bookies so I collectively win nicely overall, but also lose a bit with each bookie individually too, if you get my drift.
  • Options
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    This won't make you feel better:

    https://twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/857486541496737792
    Jesus, if only we had a party in a dominant enough position to put forward changes in their manifesto to fix that.
    Doesn't that conveniently forget pensions? Or are they excluded?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,164
    edited April 2017
    isam said:

    twitter.com/sporf/status/857686414103900162

    More intriguingly is what is a saff London lad doing being interested in such a northern sport?
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Richard_Nabavi said:
    » show previous quotes
    ' I think the reason is that people have become intolerably rude and offensive. In those days people were much more polite, and even hecklers wouldn't be swearing at you.'

    Am not so sure about that. Harold Wilson got hit by a stinkbomb thrown at him by a schoolboy in 1966. Politicians have now become such control freaks. Even in the two elections of 1974 the first signs of that were appearing. I recall very little heckling and public meeting were becoming ticket only affairs.Whenever the Leader addressed a meeting there would be a background set designed to push the party message. So even by the mid-70s spontoneity was in decline. Then it went a stage further in 1979 with Thatcher's photo opportunities.I do feel we have lost something from the election experience of those earlier years.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,131

    Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1

    They only let me have £7.10.

    It's a deft trick, but I try and spread my bets with bookies so I collectively win nicely overall, but also lose a bit with each bookie individually too, if you get my drift.
    Betfair Sportsbook don't want any more of my money.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,403

    Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1

    They only let me have £7.10.

    Thanks, good shout.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.
    Shame about what German policy did to Southern Europe though eh
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,668
    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1

    They only let me have £7.10.

    Hah. Only £3.18 for me, but that price is just silly.
    I've managed to lock in a £200+ risk free profit if the Tories win both West Bromwich West and East off the back of a huge odds switch.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,077
    Omnium said:

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    What degree are you working towards ?
    Just straight Economics.
    It's probably possible to make an argument that if you are thinking of leaving the UK once you've studied Economics then you didn't understand the subject.
    True, it probably would be possible to make that argument, and likely equally possible to argue the opposite.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Pulpstar said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Seats they cannot win - that's a lot of seats.... just saying.
    Bristol West, Norwich South, are the three top targets and probably have the right potential demographic mix.

    Past that Sheffield Central perhaps (Bennett is running there)

    Most of the country is impossible for them.

    I was talking about Labour, oh you might be too :-)
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,668
    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1

    They only let me have £7.10.

    It's a deft trick, but I try and spread my bets with bookies so I collectively win nicely overall, but also lose a bit with each bookie individually too, if you get my drift.
    Betfair Sportsbook don't want any more of my money.
    That's because you want too much of their money ;-)
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2017
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????

    There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
    Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.

    I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.

    Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.

    Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
    No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.
    In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.
    Employment has grown
    Worth remembering too that wages only measure the income of those who have a job, it doesn't take into account those who are left unemployed.

    Italy 2009 unemployment rate 7%; it's now 12%

    UK 2009 unemployment rate 6.7%; it's now 4.8%

    We've not just found jobs for our own citizens deflating our average wages, our real wages have been deflated by taking on continents poor too. Any comparison is absurd.
    If you are a British worker on stagnant or falling wages in Britain then that is little compensation.

    When our spending bubble pops, are things going to get better?
    How much of that is made up for by increases in the personal allowance?
    That was a sound policy of the LibDems, and I was glad when the coalition took it on board.

    Though we do need to set off against this the rising cost of housing etc.

    It is hard to see how the lot of the young in terms of real wages will be improved by increasing inflation.

    I am too old to emigrate (though a well paid sinicure in the Gulf, or locums in the Antipodes would be viable) . I would advise Fox jr to emigrate, but would miss him too much.

  • Options
    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    What degree are you working towards ?
    Just straight Economics.
    'Just'? As opposed to...? So you won't be going into politics then.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,131

    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1

    They only let me have £7.10.

    Hah. Only £3.18 for me, but that price is just silly.
    I've managed to lock in a £200+ risk free profit if the Tories win both West Bromwich West and East off the back of a huge odds switch.
    I have no idea precisely where I am, but I think I'm ahead of the game. Check your messages ;)
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,802
    Floater said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.
    Shame about what German policy did to Southern Europe though eh
    Gave them sound money and the chance to break the cycle of inflation and devaluation?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,314
    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1

    They only let me have £7.10.

    Hah. Only £3.18 for me, but that price is just silly.
    Its on PP as well and they let me have a lot more.

    By comparison they have Wirral West at 9/2 Labour - I wonder if they've got the constituencies mixed up.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,919
    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1

    They only let me have £7.10.

    Hah. Only £3.18 for me, but that price is just silly.
    Get that market on BF (exchange), and at somewhat shorter odds you can have as much as you like.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1

    They only let me have £7.10.

    Hah. Only £3.18 for me, but that price is just silly.
    £0.71 !
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,164
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    What degree are you working towards ?
    Just straight Economics.
    I hope you didn't have any illusions of being PM? Cos you are missing a couple of subjects there.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,077
    Prodicus said:

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216

    Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.
    Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.

    Currently UK real wages are falling again.
    The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.

    Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
    It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.

    Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.

    France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
    For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.
    What degree are you working towards ?
    Just straight Economics.
    'Just'? As opposed to...? So you won't be going into politics then.
    Often I you get asked what type of Economics you do (there's a whole range I believe from things like PPE to Business & Econ, Maths & Econ etc). Well, never rule anything out, but I suspect that there's a few too many embarrassing photos of me on the internet for me to survive our hysterical media.
This discussion has been closed.