News from Trump - just put tariffs on Canadian lumber and when asked if this will start a trade war he said no as Canada has a large trade surplus with the US.
And to think some on here thought the talks with the EU and US would result in a deal - seems only if Germany takes the hit on it's trade surplus
There's a big difference: The EU negotiates as an equal. Canada does not.
Not in Trumps eyes - he is after Germany
Canada cannot survive without the US, so I'm not sure the two situations are analogous.
News from Trump - just put tariffs on Canadian lumber and when asked if this will start a trade war he said no as Canada has a large trade surplus with the US.
And to think some on here thought the talks with the EU and US would result in a deal - seems only if Germany takes the hit on it's trade surplus
There's a big difference: The EU negotiates as an equal. Canada does not.
Not in Trumps eyes - he is after Germany
Canada cannot survive without the US, so I'm not sure the two situations are analogous.
Canada is to the US what Brexit Britain is to the EU. There's your analogy.
News from Trump - just put tariffs on Canadian lumber and when asked if this will start a trade war he said no as Canada has a large trade surplus with the US.
And to think some on here thought the talks with the EU and US would result in a deal - seems only if Germany takes the hit on it's trade surplus
There's a big difference: The EU negotiates as an equal. Canada does not.
Not in Trumps eyes - he is after Germany
Canada cannot survive without the US, so I'm not sure the two situations are analogous.
Just text my son and daughter in law, who is Canadian, and living in Vancouver for their reaction
News from Trump - just put tariffs on Canadian lumber and when asked if this will start a trade war he said no as Canada has a large trade surplus with the US.
And to think some on here thought the talks with the EU and US would result in a deal - seems only if Germany takes the hit on it's trade surplus
There's a big difference: The EU negotiates as an equal. Canada does not.
Not in Trumps eyes - he is after Germany
Canada cannot survive without the US, so I'm not sure the two situations are analogous.
Canada is to the US what Brexit Britain is to the EU. There's your analogy.
That's not a good analogy either. The EU is less than half of our exports, against 80% for Canada. And Canada has literally no other customers even theoretically possible for its oil and gas as it lacks export terminals.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
Waitrose - full of riff-raff. The discerning Northern shopper gives their custom to Booths.
I believe it was the late Alan Coren who said that he liked Sainsburys because it kept the riff-raff out of Waitrose....
Those of us who shop at Sainsbury's take the same attitude with respect to Tesco :-)
Those of us who shop at Tesco take the same attitude with respect to Asda and those who shop at Asda the same attitude to those who shop at Lidl, those who shop at Lidl take the same attitude to those who shop at Iceland, those who shop at Iceland know their place
Bucking all trends, swimming against the tide and going against all conventional wisdom... I say the Conservatives are too short at 1/4 in Thurrock!
Here are my reasons
The Conservatives retained the seat in a 3 way marginal last time, with 974 votes separating 1st and 3rd
Conservative Jackie Doyle-Price 16,692 33.7 −3.1 Labour Polly Billington 16,156 32.6 −4.0 UKIP Tim Aker 15,718 31.7 +24.3
I reckon this was down to the threat of Labour and the SNP, getting in. There is no chance of that this time. Doyle Price also boasted of having prevented the new Dartford Crossing, that has just been approved to much dismay, on her election literature in 2015. Locals were not happy with her performance
UKIP have become the largest party on Thurrock council in the meantime, and their candidate looks to be local councillor and MEP Tim Aker once more. The guy that runs "Westmonster" w Arron Banks, Michael Heaver, is heavily involved in Thurrock along with a couple of UKIP young pups that are very enthusiastic (Dan Jukes who works for Farage and Jack Duffin who is/was head of Young UKIP). No doubt more money and resources will be thrown at this seat than any other
I would say this is more like 1/2 2/1, so UKIP at 4/1 w Betfair appeals to me. Definitely their best chance of a seat
Interesting tip and may be worth a fiver. The danger, I guess, is too many straight Labour to Tory switchers.
Another thing in its favour (the bet not Thurrock!), is the BNP+UKIP vote in 2010... over 15%. Has to be one of the highest of that GE, and relevant in a place that is known as "Chafrica" (Chafford Hundred is the Train Station)
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
Waitrose - full of riff-raff. The discerning Northern shopper gives their custom to Booths.
I believe it was the late Alan Coren who said that he liked Sainsburys because it kept the riff-raff out of Waitrose....
Those of us who shop at Sainsbury's take the same attitude with respect to Tesco :-)</blockquote
Those of us who shop at Lidl laugh at those of us being ripped off by Tesco Sainsburys and all the other higher end supermarkets.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Snapped up - I'd be happy if just one pulled off!
I've got a tenner on each so I can do a "Sean Thomas" meal to celebrate with my wife if they both come off!
Wow, these sums. Paddy Power only wanted £1.06 from me. Betfair Sportsbook don't want ANY of my money any more.
Only a matter of time before I'm in the same boat.
Haven't yet come across any 'what should be safe but right now who knows' Lab seats with anything like the Kingston odds, sadly.
LDs 8/1 in Redcar made me think. I mean, the won it once before (off the back of the Steel plant closing, admittedly, and Lab won it right back), and if Lab are down, but probably still over generous on the LD chances given national revival is still pretty low.
News from Trump - just put tariffs on Canadian lumber and when asked if this will start a trade war he said no as Canada has a large trade surplus with the US.
And to think some on here thought the talks with the EU and US would result in a deal - seems only if Germany takes the hit on it's trade surplus
There's a big difference: The EU negotiates as an equal. Canada does not.
Not in Trumps eyes - he is after Germany
Canada cannot survive without the US, so I'm not sure the two situations are analogous.
Canada is to the US what Brexit Britain is to the EU. There's your analogy.
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Thanks. Put a £1 on each.
Suddenly blocked to me on BF Sports. Eh?
West has gone blank, and East is now 33/1. They move fast, don't they?
Edit 16/1
So fast that I'm not even bothering to do full models or blogs this time. I just do quick and dirty analysis, coupled with intuition.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
Quick quiz: we use Amazon Fresh for all our deliveries. Does that correlate with Leave or Remain?
Haven't yet come across any 'what should be safe but right now who knows' Lab seats with anything like the Kingston odds, sadly.
LDs 8/1 in Redcar made me think. I mean, the won it once before (off the back of the Steel plant closing, admittedly, and Lab won it right back), and if Lab are down, but probably still over generous on the LD chances given national revival is still pretty low.
I've backed the blues there at 14-1. Might come through the middle.
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Thanks. Put a £1 on each.
Suddenly blocked to me on BF Sports. Eh?
West has gone blank, and East is now 33/1. They move fast, don't they?
Edit 16/1
Can I ask which bookies people are using that already have a complete set of constituency odds?
Sky Bet has a small selection. Ladbrokes has v. few.
I don't currently have an a/c with PP or Betfair. I don't particularly want to open one but could if needed.
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Thanks. Put a £1 on each.
Suddenly blocked to me on BF Sports. Eh?
West has gone blank, and East is now 33/1. They move fast, don't they?
Edit 16/1
Can I ask which bookies people are using that already have a complete set of constituency odds?
Sky Bet has a small selection. Ladbrokes has v. few.
I don't currently have an a/c with PP or Betfair. I don't particularly want to open one but could if needed.
I see OGH is postingnthe flawed stuff about less educated more likely to vote Tory the same way as more likely to have voted leave....As we have discussed a million times it is really related to age and the fact less than 20% of oldies went to uni when they were 18, where as now it is 50%. But then OGH already knows this.
We already knew oldies more likely to go Tory, but with Kim Jong may vs the 70s throwback (and naughty Nige off the scene ) it is one party state for oldies.
OK, BF, you voided my Woking 66/1 on the Tories, and that was clearly a legitimate error, but you won't void my Kingston ones will you? They might be more likely than 66/1 but they're not 1/200 like Woking was changed to!
If you could open an account in Italy their gambling laws prohibit palping of bets. But i don't know if you have to logon through an Italian portal. And you might not be able to access such UK specific markets.
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Snapped up - I'd be happy if just one pulled off!
I've got a tenner on each so I can do a "Sean Thomas" meal to celebrate with my wife if they both come off!
I thought a "Sean Thomas" meal involved eating on your own somewhere overseas while posting on PB?
Eating FOR FREE. Important to note that bit. Makes it all easier to bear.
I have just eaten for free on my own. How much will The Times pay for a description of my experience?
I see OGH is postingnthe flawed stuff about less educated more likely to vote Tory the same way as more likely to have voted leave....As we have discussed a million times it is really related to age and the fact less than 20% of oldies went to uni when they were 18, where as now it is 50%. But then OGH already knows this.
We already knew oldies more likely to go Tory, but with Kim Jong may vs the 70s throwback (and naughty Nige off the scene ) it is one party state for oldies.
It still applies for those with A Levels, GCSEs and no qualifications (although as I have said the Tories still lead with graduates)
Off topic, but just doing a news search on constituency betting, and I see a reference to Mike Smithson of the respected website, political betting. The article was on...The National.
Labour 2/1 Hammersmith is the value there - 14% majority in a very divided constituency.
On balance, I'd expect Labour to lose but it has lots of social housing, and a big Afro-Caribbean population, both good for Labour.
So does Battersea, but apparently that is a solid Conservative seat now.
Battersea is far posher.
Really, Mr. F? I shall have to take you word for it and that of Mr. Richard who also corrected me but I do so with some reluctance.
I was born in Wandsworth, went to school in Battersea and until a couple of years ago my route into Town took me through the area on a weekly basis. Whilst some parts have definitely gone up market, e.g. Little India (so-called because of the road names before anyone asks) there are still those horrendous 1960s council estates within the constituency borders and I do not suppose they are hot beds of Conservative voters.
Looking at the electoral maps (https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/) Hammersmith would seem to have much the same sort of mix, but perhaps missing out on the small area of poshness that has always bordered the South side of Battersea Park.
I suspect you and I went to the same school albeit I was there after you.
I lived in Clapham but knew Battersea fairly well - there were some hideous estates in battersea.
Things have changed but Battersea really was nothing special in the 70's and early 80's
Old Sinjun? There are a few of us about.
Battersea certainly wasn't anything special back then and looking at the map of the constituency it still ain't. Some of those little terraced houses maybe going for a million plus these days but it is still a shit area where you wouldn't want your children out unsupervised or probably going to the local community school.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
Quick quiz: we use Amazon Fresh for all our deliveries. Does that correlate with Leave or Remain?
Regarding the 2 possible Libdem gains in Scotland (And writing as somebody who hopefully will be campaigning in both seats at some point in the next 5 weeks) NE Fife is going to be the much tougher one to win imo. We have, unlike in Edin W, an incumbent MP in Gethins to beat who is reasonable well respected locally. Also not having the advantage of the Scottish Leader standing as in 2016 who grew up in the area loses some of the name recognition votes and finally the extra 20% bit of the seat around Leven and Lundin Links in much more SNP friendly all add up to a greater challenge. Plus it is pretty easy for the SNP to get more campaigners in from the rest of Fife or Dundee to help out. I would think that we are no better than a 50% chance to gain it at the moment.
In Edinburgh West the Nats have the problem that they have battles all over the city to fight whilst the Libdems can concentrate on just this seat. Coupled with the Michelle Thomson debacle, having a pretty popular MSP in Cole-Hamilton plus a smaller majority to overcome, it would actually be a surprise if it does not change hands.
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Thanks. Put a £1 on each.
Suddenly blocked to me on BF Sports. Eh?
West has gone blank, and East is now 33/1. They move fast, don't they?
Edit 16/1
Can I ask which bookies people are using that already have a complete set of constituency odds?
Sky Bet has a small selection. Ladbrokes has v. few.
I don't currently have an a/c with PP or Betfair. I don't particularly want to open one but could if needed.
Betfair doesn't have a complete list, but there's a wide range.
OK, BF, you voided my Woking 66/1 on the Tories, and that was clearly a legitimate error, but you won't void my Kingston ones will you? They might be more likely than 66/1 but they're not 1/200 like Woking was changed to!
If you could open an account in Italy their gambling laws prohibit palping of bets. But i don't know if you have to logon through an Italian portal. And you might not be able to access such UK specific markets.
I see OGH is postingnthe flawed stuff about less educated more likely to vote Tory the same way as more likely to have voted leave....As we have discussed a million times it is really related to age and the fact less than 20% of oldies went to uni when they were 18, where as now it is 50%. But then OGH already knows this.
We already knew oldies more likely to go Tory, but with Kim Jong may vs the 70s throwback (and naughty Nige off the scene ) it is one party state for oldies.
The deeper flaw is thinking that the point and benefit of an education is that it enables you to sneer at people with less of one. It makes me really fucking cross; esp from someone who has worked at two of the three proper universities in the country and really ought to know better. And if Remainers are so fucking smart how come we served an Article 50 notice last month?
News from Trump - just put tariffs on Canadian lumber and when asked if this will start a trade war he said no as Canada has a large trade surplus with the US.
And to think some on here thought the talks with the EU and US would result in a deal - seems only if Germany takes the hit on it's trade surplus
There's a big difference: The EU negotiates as an equal. Canada does not.
Not in Trumps eyes - he is after Germany
Canada cannot survive without the US, so I'm not sure the two situations are analogous.
Just text my son and daughter in law, who is Canadian, and living in Vancouver for their reaction
I know Canada well, and have spent time in places many people haven't even heard of: Fort McMurray, Winnipeg, Edmonton and Regina for example.
The most likely consequence of the US imposing tariffs will be that the Canadians seek to diversify their export options. So, arguments over whether there should be an oil pipeline from Edmonton and Fort McMurray across the Rockies to Vancouver/Kitimat are likely to be quickly resolved in favour of 'yes'. The Chinese have been desparate for a long time to get Canada exporting oil & gas, but the Canadians have been leery of pissing off their neighbours.
That all being said, the US does have an excellent case here. The implicit Canadian timber subsidies are huge, and are likely in contravension of both the NAFTA and WTO treaties. The interesting question - to me at least - is whether President Trump follows the tariffs with cases lodged at the WTO and NAFTA ISDS. He should do - as the US has an excellent case - but his dislike of multilateral organisations may stop him.
I see OGH is postingnthe flawed stuff about less educated more likely to vote Tory the same way as more likely to have voted leave....As we have discussed a million times it is really related to age and the fact less than 20% of oldies went to uni when they were 18, where as now it is 50%. But then OGH already knows this.
We already knew oldies more likely to go Tory, but with Kim Jong may vs the 70s throwback (and naughty Nige off the scene ) it is one party state for oldies.
The deeper flaw is thinking that the point and benefit of an education is that it enables you to sneer at people with less of one. It makes me really fucking cross; esp from someone who has worked at two of the three proper universities in the country and really ought to know better. And if Remainers are so fucking smart how come we served an Article 50 notice last month?
I think OGH is engaging in some trolling, and is probably laughing that so many people rose to the bait.
Have we already discussed Momentum putting pro Corbyn stickers on all the tins at a food bank?
When corbyn anmouces the free bog roll policy I presume each roll will have socialist propaganda printed on it to remind is of what the supreme leader is doing for us.
Farron sounds like he is in a right royal pickle over this gay shagging lark. Putting me off voting Liberal, truth be told. But May is also God Squad, I understand. Has anyone asked her whether she considers gay sex the work of Lord Beelzebub?
When Labour received over 400 seats, it took the Tories 13 years to get back into government, and 18 years to win a majority.
That's what makes me think Lab to Con switchers might bottle it.
Do they really want to be out of power for a further 13 years?
The only point I would make there is that given the existence of a firm Anti - Tory Block of circa 60 seats made up of SNP, Plaid, Green , SDLP etc - and 10- 20 LibDems - Labour might only need circa 250 seats in May 2022 to form a minority Government.
Farron sounds like he is in a right royal pickle over this gay shagging lark. Putting me off voting Liberal, truth be told. But May is also God Squad, I understand. Has anyone asked her whether she considers gay sex the work of Lord Beelzebub?
I would be very interested in her answer, given the struggles Farron has had with it (and I know one Tory-considering-LD who has been put off by his answers to date, so what they'd do if May said the same things IDK)
When Labour received over 400 seats, it took the Tories 13 years to get back into government, and 18 years to win a majority.
That's what makes me think Lab to Con switchers might bottle it.
Do they really want to be out of power for a further 13 years?
The only point I would make there is that given the existence of a firm Anti - Tory Block of circa 60 seats made up of SNP, Plaid, Green , SDLP etc - and 10- 20 LibDems - Labour might only need circa 250 seats in May 2022 to form a minority Government.
I guess the "coalition of chaos" line will get another airing.
Regarding the 2 possible Libdem gains in Scotland (And writing as somebody who hopefully will be campaigning in both seats at some point in the next 5 weeks) NE Fife is going to be the much tougher one to win imo. We have, unlike in Edin W, an incumbent MP in Gethins to beat who is reasonable well respected locally. Also not having the advantage of the Scottish Leader standing as in 2016 who grew up in the area loses some of the name recognition votes and finally the extra 20% bit of the seat around Leven and Lundin Links in much more SNP friendly all add up to a greater challenge. Plus it is pretty easy for the SNP to get more campaigners in from the rest of Fife or Dundee to help out. I would think that we are no better than a 50% chance to gain it at the moment.
In Edinburgh West the Nats have the problem that they have battles all over the city to fight whilst the Libdems can concentrate on just this seat. Coupled with the Michelle Thomson debacle, having a pretty popular MSP in Cole-Hamilton plus a smaller majority to overcome, it would actually be a surprise if it does not change hands.
Farron sounds like he is in a right royal pickle over this gay shagging lark. Putting me off voting Liberal, truth be told. But May is also God Squad, I understand. Has anyone asked her whether she considers gay sex the work of Lord Beelzebub?
No.because i doubt she has been as stupid as to suggest it is!
Farron sounds like he is in a right royal pickle over this gay shagging lark. Putting me off voting Liberal, truth be told. But May is also God Squad, I understand. Has anyone asked her whether she considers gay sex the work of Lord Beelzebub?
If Spitting Image were still going, the Farron puppet wouldn't look out of place in the Pet Shop Boys doing a parody of 'It's a sin'.
I wonder what Corbyn thinks? It wouldn't entirely surprise me if he came out with a Gisela Allen-esque line about his attraction to gorillas.
Another Portillo moment lined up... Why is she not standing down?
I think I read somewhere that Ma Beckett has been in tears over what has happened to the Labour party since Corbyn has been leader. I think she was one of the fools who nominated him! I have no sympathy. It would be the second time the Tories defeated her if they do in this election as IIRC she was defeated in Lincoln many elections ago.
Farron sounds like he is in a right royal pickle over this gay shagging lark. Putting me off voting Liberal, truth be told. But May is also God Squad, I understand. Has anyone asked her whether she considers gay sex the work of Lord Beelzebub?
I would be very interested in her answer, given the struggles Farron has had with it (and I know one Tory-considering-LD who has been put off by his answers to date, so what they'd do if May said the same things IDK)
Go Green maybe but this is all ridiculous, gay marriage is legal and both Farron and May voted for it but as they are both practising Christians they cannot contradict Biblical teaching that any sex outside heterosexual marriage is a sin but then lots of things are sins that does not mean they are all going to be made illegal!
Another Portillo moment lined up... Why is she not standing down?
Who wants to end their career with 'I stood by and did nothing during the massacre of the Corbynite Labour party in '17'? If you want a do-over, you need to still be there afterwards.
Farron sounds like he is in a right royal pickle over this gay shagging lark. Putting me off voting Liberal, truth be told. But May is also God Squad, I understand. Has anyone asked her whether she considers gay sex the work of Lord Beelzebub?
If Spitting Image were still going, the Farron puppet wouldn't look out of place in the Pet Shop Boys doing a parody of 'It's a sin'.
I wonder what Corbyn thinks? It wouldn't entirely surprise me if he came out with a Gisela Allen-esque line about his attraction to gorillas.
On Topic This doesnt feel right to me, it implies that current Polling is substantially Underestimating Labour support, really ? The estimate for The Libdems looks a bit low too, I would have thought 22 or 23% & gains of 150 Seats. 8% for UKIP is in line with recent Polling but they have dropped 3% in a fortnight so they could fall further ? The crucial fact is that Labours Polling has fallen very sharply in a very short time. Is that just The Polls coming into line with reality as a Real decision becomes neccesary or is Labour actually crumbling away ? We need more Polls.
Labour's polling has actually been pretty stable recently. ICM yesterday gave them 27% - the same level as late July last year - ie 9 months ago. Even Yougov has had Labour in the 24 - 26% range since the beginning of December. The big Tory lead is being driven by a UKIP collapse - rather than a sudden fall in Labour support.
Way too much work for me to keep caught up on the PB comments
I did want to congratulate @dyedwoolie for his awesome Bluetones reference in the last thread.
On topic, the thing which might be hardest to model both for 4th May and 8th June is the effect of UKIP ceasing to try on a full national level. As noted by many previously, UKIP is essentially dead so long as the continuity Remainers don't succeed in overturning the referendum result.
Regarding the 2 possible Libdem gains in Scotland (And writing as somebody who hopefully will be campaigning in both seats at some point in the next 5 weeks) NE Fife is going to be the much tougher one to win imo. We have, unlike in Edin W, an incumbent MP in Gethins to beat who is reasonable well respected locally. Also not having the advantage of the Scottish Leader standing as in 2016 who grew up in the area loses some of the name recognition votes and finally the extra 20% bit of the seat around Leven and Lundin Links in much more SNP friendly all add up to a greater challenge. Plus it is pretty easy for the SNP to get more campaigners in from the rest of Fife or Dundee to help out. I would think that we are no better than a 50% chance to gain it at the moment.
In Edinburgh West the Nats have the problem that they have battles all over the city to fight whilst the Libdems can concentrate on just this seat. Coupled with the Michelle Thomson debacle, having a pretty popular MSP in Cole-Hamilton plus a smaller majority to overcome, it would actually be a surprise if it does not change hands.
Interesting thoughts on Fife NE. My only, only, pause about Ed West is that the tactical vote for Long Dems was already pretty strong last time but I suppose there is still more to squeeze.
The Edwards, father and son, told me they'd both been Labour voters all their lives. But could they switch? Mark told me his 85-year-old father had already done so. He said "she is wonderful, best we've had," when he started talking about Theresa May.
Mr Edwards senior told me he had been 'life-long Labour' but that Jeremy Corbyn was "30 or 40 years out of date - he wants to introduce a gimmick, communism".
He was plainly angry about what's happened to the Labour party in recent years, saying it had been led by "conmen". Mr Edwards parting shot was "bye, bye Mr Corbyn".
Another voter, Brian Holley presented his own dilemma, that could be shared by many voters in Wales, where overall, the vote was to leave the EU. Brian told me he'd voted to Leave but his local Labour MP had backed Remain.
That was reason for him to be, as he expressed it, "on the border" between sticking with Labour and voting Tory for the first time.
Meanwhile, I note that Ronnie O'Sullivan, fresh off his endorsement of Nnice Corbiyn, is 10-6 down to Ding Junhui overnight (best of 25, Ding needs 3 of the last 9 frames to win).
I see OGH is postingnthe flawed stuff about less educated more likely to vote Tory the same way as more likely to have voted leave....As we have discussed a million times it is really related to age and the fact less than 20% of oldies went to uni when they were 18, where as now it is 50%. But then OGH already knows this.
We already knew oldies more likely to go Tory, but with Kim Jong may vs the 70s throwback (and naughty Nige off the scene ) it is one party state for oldies.
The deeper flaw is thinking that the point and benefit of an education is that it enables you to sneer at people with less of one. It makes me really fucking cross; esp from someone who has worked at two of the three proper universities in the country and really ought to know better. And if Remainers are so fucking smart how come we served an Article 50 notice last month?
I think OGH is engaging in some trolling, and is probably laughing that so many people rose to the bait.
On Topic This doesnt feel right to me, it implies that current Polling is substantially Underestimating Labour support, really ? The estimate for The Libdems looks a bit low too, I would have thought 22 or 23% & gains of 150 Seats. 8% for UKIP is in line with recent Polling but they have dropped 3% in a fortnight so they could fall further ? The crucial fact is that Labours Polling has fallen very sharply in a very short time. Is that just The Polls coming into line with reality as a Real decision becomes neccesary or is Labour actually crumbling away ? We need more Polls.
Labour's polling has actually been pretty stable recently. ICM yesterday gave them 27% - the same level as late July last year - ie 9 months ago. Even Yougov has had Labour in the 24 - 26% range since the beginning of December. The big Tory lead is being driven by a UKIP collapse - rather than a sudden fall in Labour support.
The model is based on local by-elections rather than national polls. It would appear that these don't show much of a drop in Labour support in the shires?
Off topic, but just doing a news search on constituency betting, and I see a reference to Mike Smithson of the respected website, political betting. The article was on...The National.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
Quick quiz: we use Amazon Fresh for all our deliveries. Does that correlate with Leave or Remain?
Remain buys prosecco, cava or the cheaper champagne. M&S own brand blanc de blanc etc
Your genuine pukka Leaver buys Duvall-Leroy 2000 or, of course, proper Nyetimber English fizz.
Sounds pretty accurate
Except perhaps the Nyetimber wine. As I have pointed out on here several times before, when compared with RidgeView Nyetimber, is a very inferior offering. It is about as good as the Bolney Estate stuff but I wouldn't serve it to a guest in my house.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Touchy touchy.
But the Tories are ahead at every educational level. So by definition if you are thick or a genius, you will vote Tory. Which makes sense. Geniuses are eccentric, but not that eccentric. Even they can see that Labour under Corbyn are SHITE.
We are talking about the differential here. That was the point.
It was like Brexit. The folk who were less educated had a higher propensity to vote Leave while those who were better educated had a higher propensity to vote Remain.
Well, so what? In one sentence you manage a false antithesis of "less" versus "better" and overlook the critical confounding factor of age (because pre-1990s almost nobody got a degree, and now almost everybody does). Let me guess: like most intellectual snobs, you have a poor degree in a pretend subject from a re-badged poly, and if you want to laugh at the "less educated", I can promise you that from where I'm standing you are one of them.
What the f*ck!!
You ok brother?
Some advice: drink a glass of water and go lie down in a dark room for a bit. Hopefully you may recover some of your senses!
The Edwards, father and son, told me they'd both been Labour voters all their lives. But could they switch? Mark told me his 85-year-old father had already done so. He said "she is wonderful, best we've had," when he started talking about Theresa May.
Mr Edwards senior told me he had been 'life-long Labour' but that Jeremy Corbyn was "30 or 40 years out of date - he wants to introduce a gimmick, communism".
He was plainly angry about what's happened to the Labour party in recent years, saying it had been led by "conmen". Mr Edwards parting shot was "bye, bye Mr Corbyn".
Another voter, Brian Holley presented his own dilemma, that could be shared by many voters in Wales, where overall, the vote was to leave the EU. Brian told me he'd voted to Leave but his local Labour MP had backed Remain.
That was reason for him to be, as he expressed it, "on the border" between sticking with Labour and voting Tory for the first time.
Chesterfield on PP is 20/1 to go Conservatives. Couple of things attracted me to it:
- 60% Leave - Fairly decent UKIP vote on top of the Conservative vote (two combined = c 34% in 2015) - Labour vote (just) below 50% - Not a big concentration of students etc.
DYOR
The only thing is that PP only allowed me to put #1.70 on
Farron sounds like he is in a right royal pickle over this gay shagging lark. Putting me off voting Liberal, truth be told. But May is also God Squad, I understand. Has anyone asked her whether she considers gay sex the work of Lord Beelzebub?
I would be very interested in her answer, given the struggles Farron has had with it (and I know one Tory-considering-LD who has been put off by his answers to date, so what they'd do if May said the same things IDK)
Go Green maybe but this is all ridiculous, gay marriage is legal and both Farron and May voted for it but as they are both practising Christians they cannot contradict Biblical teaching that any sex outside heterosexual marriage is a sin but then lots of things are sins that does not mean they are all going to be made illegal!
Rubbish. Several tons of crap spouted by the bible is ignored at Christians' convenience. It is demonstrably possible to be religious and oppose much of the shite that surrounds it.
The Size of Conservative Majority market on betfair seems to have decent odds on all options, no matter whether you think the tories will under or overperform, or do just right. A good one for some small stakes betting.
Can you imagine if we'd seen polls like this in 2010? #PBTories would have sent this site into a complete meltdown!
With this level of support how on earth do the Communists Greens succeed in holding onto this seat?
Because its in Brighton.
Labour are in worse shape and the Conservatives have a ceiling of under 30% in that constituency.
I would love it if Con took that from the Greens - there are few forces as snobby and superior as a Green party leader talking about how they represent the people.
Unfortunately seeing a Corbyninsta take, say, Saffron Waldon, for similar effect, seems unlikely.
Formerly it was a very safe Tory seat. Julian Amery was the MP!
Farron sounds like he is in a right royal pickle over this gay shagging lark. Putting me off voting Liberal, truth be told. But May is also God Squad, I understand. Has anyone asked her whether she considers gay sex the work of Lord Beelzebub?
I would be very interested in her answer, given the struggles Farron has had with it (and I know one Tory-considering-LD who has been put off by his answers to date, so what they'd do if May said the same things IDK)
Go Green maybe but this is all ridiculous, gay marriage is legal and both Farron and May voted for it but as they are both practising Christians they cannot contradict Biblical teaching that any sex outside heterosexual marriage is a sin but then lots of things are sins that does not mean they are all going to be made illegal!
Rubbish. Several tons of crap spouted by the bible is ignored at Christians' convenience. It is demonstrably possible to be religious and oppose much of the shite that surrounds it.
To give Michael Gove (a christian) some credit (never thought I would say that!) - he had no problem saying straight away that gay sex was not a sin. Farron messed up here.
Even the 'whack a mole' Labour party isn't cheering me up.
Chelsea looked a bit shit first half but they've got the job done tonight. Still not over though.
give it 24 hours ... with Walker reportedly seeking a meeting with Poch after being dropped for the Saturday disaster, this could be the beginning of the end of this potentially great team and the usual selling of key stars (and coach).
not that I'm gloomy or anything.... SO's bets may well be coming in.
Another Portillo moment lined up... Why is she not standing down?
I think I read somewhere that Ma Beckett has been in tears over what has happened to the Labour party since Corbyn has been leader. I think she was one of the fools who nominated him! I have no sympathy. It would be the second time the Tories defeated her if they do in this election as IIRC she was defeated in Lincoln many elections ago.
She is upset by it, and was a nominator. All her own fault, she should have known better.
Farron sounds like he is in a right royal pickle over this gay shagging lark. Putting me off voting Liberal, truth be told. But May is also God Squad, I understand. Has anyone asked her whether she considers gay sex the work of Lord Beelzebub?
I would be very interested in her answer, given the struggles Farron has had with it (and I know one Tory-considering-LD who has been put off by his answers to date, so what they'd do if May said the same things IDK)
Go Green maybe but this is all ridiculous, gay marriage is legal and both Farron and May voted for it but as they are both practising Christians they cannot contradict Biblical teaching that any sex outside heterosexual marriage is a sin but then lots of things are sins that does not mean they are all going to be made illegal!
Rubbish. Several tons of crap spouted by the bible is ignored at Christians' convenience. It is demonstrably possible to be religious and oppose much of the shite that surrounds it.
To give Michael Gove (a christian) some credit (never thought I would say that!) - he had no problem saying straight away that gay sex was not a sin. Farron messed up here.
Chesterfield on PP is 20/1 to go Conservatives. Couple of things attracted me to it:
- 60% Leave - Fairly decent UKIP vote on top of the Conservative vote (two combined = c 34% in 2015) - Labour vote (just) below 50% - Not a big concentration of students etc.
DYOR
The only thing is that PP only allowed me to put #1.70 on
Comments
Young. Activists around. Pro-Remain (not sure by how much though).
Lib Dem seat until 2010, with the old candidate standing (Layla Moran).
Available at 8/1 DYOR.
I guess that's the economics for PP - some many get on at great odds, and more follow on behind at poor odds.
LDs 8/1 in Redcar made me think. I mean, the won it once before (off the back of the Steel plant closing, admittedly, and Lab won it right back), and if Lab are down, but probably still over generous on the LD chances given national revival is still pretty low.
No time for anything else.
Sky Bet has a small selection. Ladbrokes has v. few.
I don't currently have an a/c with PP or Betfair. I don't particularly want to open one but could if needed.
We already knew oldies more likely to go Tory, but with Kim Jong may vs the 70s throwback (and naughty Nige off the scene ) it is one party state for oldies.
Ma Beckett to lose her seat an astonishing 11-2.
http://www.thenational.scot/news/15239293.Alex_Salmond__May_knew_she_was_going_to_lose_Tory_MPs_to_the_expenses_scandal_____that_s_the_real_reason_we_ve_having_an_election/
Battersea certainly wasn't anything special back then and looking at the map of the constituency it still ain't. Some of those little terraced houses maybe going for a million plus these days but it is still a shit area where you wouldn't want your children out unsupervised or probably going to the local community school.
Open Europe's lengthy take on the untapped potential of the UK's global markets.
NE Fife is going to be the much tougher one to win imo. We have, unlike in Edin W, an incumbent MP in Gethins to beat who is reasonable well respected locally. Also not having the advantage of the Scottish Leader standing as in 2016 who grew up in the area loses some of the name recognition votes and finally the extra 20% bit of the seat around Leven and Lundin Links in much more SNP friendly all add up to a greater challenge. Plus it is pretty easy for the SNP to get more campaigners in from the rest of Fife or Dundee to help out. I would think that we are no better than a 50% chance to gain it at the moment.
In Edinburgh West the Nats have the problem that they have battles all over the city to fight whilst the Libdems can concentrate on just this seat. Coupled with the Michelle Thomson debacle, having a pretty popular MSP in Cole-Hamilton plus a smaller majority to overcome, it would actually be a surprise if it does not change hands.
Won't be the last one during the GE...
The most likely consequence of the US imposing tariffs will be that the Canadians seek to diversify their export options. So, arguments over whether there should be an oil pipeline from Edmonton and Fort McMurray across the Rockies to Vancouver/Kitimat are likely to be quickly resolved in favour of 'yes'. The Chinese have been desparate for a long time to get Canada exporting oil & gas, but the Canadians have been leery of pissing off their neighbours.
That all being said, the US does have an excellent case here. The implicit Canadian timber subsidies are huge, and are likely in contravension of both the NAFTA and WTO treaties. The interesting question - to me at least - is whether President Trump follows the tariffs with cases lodged at the WTO and NAFTA ISDS. He should do - as the US has an excellent case - but his dislike of multilateral organisations may stop him.
I guess the "coalition of chaos" line will get another airing.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
I wonder what Corbyn thinks? It wouldn't entirely surprise me if he came out with a Gisela Allen-esque line about his attraction to gorillas.
I did want to congratulate @dyedwoolie for his awesome Bluetones reference in the last thread.
On topic, the thing which might be hardest to model both for 4th May and 8th June is the effect of UKIP ceasing to try on a full national level. As noted by many previously, UKIP is essentially dead so long as the continuity Remainers don't succeed in overturning the referendum result.
Mr Edwards senior told me he had been 'life-long Labour' but that Jeremy Corbyn was "30 or 40 years out of date - he wants to introduce a gimmick, communism".
He was plainly angry about what's happened to the Labour party in recent years, saying it had been led by "conmen". Mr Edwards parting shot was "bye, bye Mr Corbyn".
Another voter, Brian Holley presented his own dilemma, that could be shared by many voters in Wales, where overall, the vote was to leave the EU. Brian told me he'd voted to Leave but his local Labour MP had backed Remain.
That was reason for him to be, as he expressed it, "on the border" between sticking with Labour and voting Tory for the first time.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39713864
Even the 'whack a mole' Labour party isn't cheering me up.
You ok brother?
Some advice: drink a glass of water and go lie down in a dark room for a bit. Hopefully you may recover some of your senses!
Chesterfield on PP is 20/1 to go Conservatives. Couple of things attracted me to it:
- 60% Leave
- Fairly decent UKIP vote on top of the Conservative vote (two combined = c 34% in 2015)
- Labour vote (just) below 50%
- Not a big concentration of students etc.
DYOR
The only thing is that PP only allowed me to put #1.70 on
not that I'm gloomy or anything.... SO's bets may well be coming in.