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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s May 4th prospects are looking appalling in England, W
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s May 4th prospects are looking appalling in England, Wales and Scotland
Today I have been in London for the annual local elections briefing organised by the Political Studies Association. The panelists were Professors Colin Rawlings and Michael Thrasher for England with Rodger Scully for Wales and Professor John Curtice for Scotland.
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If only there was a well known phrase on PB that uses 'pounded'
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/24/remain-campaigners-urge-voters-to-unseat-brexit-backing-mps
You think this might be expectations management, but then you remember the polls.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/856920054868344832?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4815/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-riding-the-surge-betting-on-a-conservative-landslide/p1
https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/75936/pollster-who-called-election-victory-tories-predicts
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/lib-dem-knights-accused-of-being-disrespectful-after-dropping-titles-to-fight-general-election-a3523141.html?amp
Best we return to the Tories and Liberals as the two main parties in my opinion.
Me: Then why the hell were you so cagey about it before?
I take the view though that as a political leader, my job is not to pontificate on theological matters.
Me: Well now a lot of people will think that you think gay sex is a sin. Was the reticence on this 'theological matter' worth it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39703444 They're either doomed, or their expectations management operation is superb.
So they're fine in NI then!
http://www.markpack.org.uk/139888/thrasher-rallings-local-election-predictions-lib-dems/
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856883506634477569
Can you imagine if we'd seen polls like this in 2010? #PBTories would have sent this site into a complete meltdown!
Wonder if Andy Burnham is getting worried over his mayoral election
Right now I'm working on the basis that come election day UKIP will be somewhere around 5% and the difference between their current score and 5% should be added to the Conservative tally.
I'm convinced Labour to Con voters are going to bottle it to save Labour from a shellacking.
Has Theresa May tapped the EU Ref voters who sat out GE2015 ?
When they're 10+% lower in the opinion polls than back then:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention
It should be remembered though that in national % terms Green/Nats and others %s were neglible
Here are the figures
1983
Polls at at time of local elections
Con 49
Lab 31
Alliance 19
NEV locals
Con 39
Lab 36
All 20
Polls at end of GE campaign
Con 47
Lab 26
All 26
GE result
Con 43
Lab 28
All 26
1987
Polls at time of local elections
Con 43
Lab 31
All 25
NEV locals
Con 38
Lab 32
All 27
Polls at end of GE campaign
Con 43
Lab 34
All 22
GE result
Con 43
Lab 31
All 23
In 1983 the GE campaign saw a clear movement of around 5% from Lab to Alliance . Apart from that the NEVs for locals seemed to understate Conservatives and overstate Labour by 4-5% with Alliance figures pretty much spot on apart from changes during the campaign .
That's what makes me think Lab to Con switchers might bottle it.
Do they really want to be out of power for a further 13 years?
The estimate for The Libdems looks a bit low too, I would have thought 22 or 23% & gains of 150 Seats.
8% for UKIP is in line with recent Polling but they have dropped 3% in a fortnight so they could fall further ?
The crucial fact is that Labours Polling has fallen very sharply in a very short time. Is that just The Polls coming into line with reality as a Real decision becomes neccesary or is Labour actually crumbling away ? We need more Polls.
Was in a meeting in London with people from various companies.
Meeting breaks up and someone mentions Matt cartoon re Corbyn.
Then 5 minutes of hilarity at the mess that is Labour.
oh dear.
Tell the world and alter history.
He'd be 85 at the next GE. Fair enough, though he knew that last week when he said he'd stand. Guess TM surprised him too.
In Scotland they lost all but one seat, clearly going down so far is impossible for Labour as they'd win a handful in England even if they were on 5% nationally (as indeed, did the LDs), but equally clearly there is a point for any party where their drop of support generally would be so high that swathes of seats will be lost.
20 points down would see Lab lose something like 80-100? Terrible, but easily the largest opposition party and presumably hoping to recover in the next few elections. Much worse, and they lose 150? Still largest opposition, but so so much harder.
May v Corbyn
If they see it as Con v Lab that might cause them to bottle it.
Err that's not what they were saying just this morning
I concur that democracy needs a functioning Opposition, but perhaps in these very particular circumstances democracy is best served by the government not having to fight on two fronts at once.
Maybe.
Good evening, everybody.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/region01.html