I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
From YouGov
the more educated you are, the less chance your views will make it into government
That was not true from 2010-2015 though, the Tory-LD coalition was more popular with graduates than those with no qualifications
I'm in the Loire valley. I heard some eyebrow raising gossip about Macron today from a well-informed source. Juicier than the usual. My source said it was the kind of thing that, if it came out, and was proved, could tip it to Le Pen.
Put up, or shut up.
I think it's quite ballsy to post even what he has, from inside France. Good plot for a novel if that is his last ever post and we wake to headlines of "International Thriller Writer Gruesomely Murdered in Swanky Chateau".
They'd just arrange an "accident", after three bottles of wine anyone would believe he stumbled and fell down the stairs, accidentally repeatedly stabbing himself on the way down.
Was having a thunkle on the tram home about how Labour treat the working class, and how the working class have evolved over the last forty years. For some reason modern Labour treat the working classes as one blob of people, a worthy group of people that need benefits and condescending to, they wear flat caps and are the salts of the earth. The problem is that they are much more complicated than that, there are different groups within the class that need appealing to in different ways which is not just chucking tax credits at. This is where May steps in, her and the modern Conservatives seem in contact with the largest group of the working class that want stand on their own two feet, they want the safety net but don't to have to pay for their neighbours to raise large families whilst taking large amounts of benefits. The group Labour are targeting are looked down on by the rest and don't vote anyway. This is what happens when a party treats it's history as lore rather than as guidelines.
If the Tories are set to dominate for another decade, growing arrogant and complacent as all parties do after too much time in power, I wonder if they'll neglect or offend their core so much it starts abandoning them. Villages and small towns to go Labour. Farmers for Corbyn in 2026 (oh, he'll be running).
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Yeah. Ignorant bastards. Take that Roger Scruton, for e.g.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
Yeah I've gone right off the so called Liberal Democrats even though I've voted for them more often than any other party.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It proves the Tories now appeal to all classes.
I suspect there is a negative correlation between age and level of education
older voters didnt have as many opportunities for higher education
whereas as those young Corbynites have degrees in facebook
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Yeah. Ignorant bastards. Take that Roger Scruton, for e.g.
Yes, plus the Tories are the only 1 of the 4 main UK parties led by an Oxbridge graduate, indeed Corbyn does not even have a degree
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
From YouGov
the more educated you are, the less chance your views will make it into government
That was not true from 2010-2015 though, the Tory-LD coalition was more popular with graduates than those with no qualifications
As a mature student, I intend to apply to join the Liberal Elite as soon as I get my degree.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Yeah. Ignorant bastards. Take that Roger Scruton, for e.g.
Yes, plus the Tories are the only 1 of the 4 main UK parties led by an Oxbridge graduate, indeed Corbyn does not even have a degree
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Touchy touchy.
How do they define 'Other' - that's a third of their sample and skews the result.
Was having a thunkle on the tram home about how Labour treat the working class, and how the working class have evolved over the last forty years. For some reason modern Labour treat the working classes as one blob of people, a worthy group of people that need benefits and condescending to, they wear flat caps and are the salts of the earth. The problem is that they are much more complicated than that, there are different groups within the class that need appealing to in different ways which is not just chucking tax credits at. This is where May steps in, her and the modern Conservatives seem in contact with the largest group of the working class that want stand on their own two feet, they want the safety net but don't to have to pay for their neighbours to raise large families whilst taking large amounts of benefits. The group Labour are targeting are looked down on by the rest and don't vote anyway. This is what happens when a party treats it's history as lore rather than as guidelines.
If the Tories are set to dominate for another decade, growing arrogant and complacent as all parties do after too much time in power, I wonder if they'll neglect or offend their core so much it starts abandoning them. Villages and small towns to go Labour. Farmers for Corbyn in 2026 (oh, he'll be running).
What would be worse for Labour is if May stays self aware about her party and how they appeal to different groups, most leaders grow wrapped up in how great they are but coming to the role late may assist her in keeping in touch with her core vote. She was never with the "in" crowd at any point, she was always used to tap up the members and the old guard. That grounding could keep the Tories in power for a while.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Yeah. Ignorant bastards. Take that Roger Scruton, for e.g.
Yes, plus the Tories are the only 1 of the 4 main UK parties led by an Oxbridge graduate, indeed Corbyn does not even have a degree
Corbyn only got E grades at A Level and it shows.
Yes and not exactly as if he had a stellar career before he entered politics either
My other half still voting for Corbyn. I'm trying to explain to her he would be a disaster but she won't listen ! Not that it'll matter, I'm in a safe seat.
4 postal votes gone for Corbynite DCC candidates from our house. LDs posters are back though.
Both my daughter's and their husbands are voting labour.They are all in their latte twenties early thirties very enthusiastic Corbynites. They do not listen to me an old fashioned third way man.They play hell with my father and mother for voting leave.Saying the older generation are selfish and a bit racist. To be fair my father never stopped going on about Immigration and his language is not very modern in a relatively cosmopolitan tourist area like York.
Gosh they sound like absolute jerks.
That is the problem with Grandpa Fox too. He used to have a liberal mindest, but now it is one rant after another. Tis a bit tricky having dinner there when the only safe topic is gardening. Even there he ranted about hostas...
True my old man is a windup merchant though even when he agreed not to talk about politics .He went onto sport Mo Farah .
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Yeah. Ignorant bastards. Take that Roger Scruton, for e.g.
Yes, plus the Tories are the only 1 of the 4 main UK parties led by an Oxbridge graduate, indeed Corbyn does not even have a degree
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
It does appear that certain Lb Dems really do only want to attract a certain type of voter.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Touchy touchy.
But the Tories are ahead at every educational level. So by definition if you are thick or a genius, you will vote Tory. Which makes sense. Geniuses are eccentric, but not that eccentric. Even they can see that Labour under Corbyn are SHITE.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Touchy touchy.
But the Tories are ahead at every educational level. So by definition if you are thick or a genius, you will vote Tory. Which makes sense. Geniuses are eccentric, but not that eccentric. Even they can see that Labour under Corbyn are SHITE.
We are talking about the differential here. That was the point.
It was like Brexit. The folk who were less educated had a higher propensity to vote Leave while those who were better educated had a higher propensity to vote Remain.
Labour 2/1 Hammersmith is the value there - 14% majority in a very divided constituency.
On balance, I'd expect Labour to lose but it has lots of social housing, and a big Afro-Caribbean population, both good for Labour.
So does Battersea, but apparently that is a solid Conservative seat now.
Battersea is far posher.
Really, Mr. F? I shall have to take you word for it and that of Mr. Richard who also corrected me but I do so with some reluctance.
I was born in Wandsworth, went to school in Battersea and until a couple of years ago my route into Town took me through the area on a weekly basis. Whilst some parts have definitely gone up market, e.g. Little India (so-called because of the road names before anyone asks) there are still those horrendous 1960s council estates within the constituency borders and I do not suppose they are hot beds of Conservative voters.
Looking at the electoral maps (https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/) Hammersmith would seem to have much the same sort of mix, but perhaps missing out on the small area of poshness that has always bordered the South side of Battersea Park.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Touchy touchy.
How do they define 'Other' - that's a third of their sample and skews the result.
It's people with degrees in Philosophy from either London or Cambridge.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Touchy touchy.
Well it is a simple fact that the Tories lead with graduates and those with A Levels just as they lead with those without qualifications or just with GCSEs. A better fit would be UKIP who are 4th with graduates but 3rd with those without qualifications, I would accept LD voters tend to be the most educated, they are 3rd with graduates and 4th with those without qualifications. Labour are second with all groups
I've got Hammersmith as 42 - 42 (@ Con 402 seats, Lab 159), though I think the swing will be less in London (Famous last words) so 2-1 looks good to me for Slaughter.
Just watched the whole piece with Farron on the gay sex thing - he comes across as very slippery on the issue. He really seemed to struggle to adequately explain why he couldn't or wouldn't clearly answer the question before but he will now; he disputed that his own views have changed, but he was not convincing in why his view on why he should not answer the question clearly have changed in a few days.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Yeah. Ignorant bastards. Take that Roger Scruton, for e.g.
Yes, plus the Tories are the only 1 of the 4 main UK parties led by an Oxbridge graduate, indeed Corbyn does not even have a degree
We are talking about the differential here. That was the point.
It was like Brexit. The folk who were less educated had a higher propensity to vote Leave while those who were better educated had a higher propensity to vote Remain.
We shouldn't confuse education with either intelligence or wisdom.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Yeah. Ignorant bastards. Take that Roger Scruton, for e.g.
Mmmm, of course snobbishly trolling the working classes is exactly the way to get the desired political result out of them (Meeks' Fallacy).
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
From YouGov
the more educated you are, the less chance your views will make it into government
That was not true from 2010-2015 though, the Tory-LD coalition was more popular with graduates than those with no qualifications
As a mature student, I intend to apply to join the Liberal Elite as soon as I get my degree.
I am sure they will welcome you to Islington with open arms
First political sign seen outside St Mawes today. Vote Conservative. Nothing else seen in Truro St Just Falmouth or anywhere in their environs. The church of St Just in Roseland is worth the visit.
That's where I got married. Reception at Tresanton afterwards.
I was there a few weeks ago. Visited the gardens nearby.
Labour 2/1 Hammersmith is the value there - 14% majority in a very divided constituency.
On balance, I'd expect Labour to lose but it has lots of social housing, and a big Afro-Caribbean population, both good for Labour.
So does Battersea, but apparently that is a solid Conservative seat now.
Battersea is far posher.
Really, Mr. F? I shall have to take you word for it and that of Mr. Richard who also corrected me but I do so with some reluctance.
I was born in Wandsworth, went to school in Battersea and until a couple of years ago my route into Town took me through the area on a weekly basis. Whilst some parts have definitely gone up market, e.g. Little India (so-called because of the road names before anyone asks) there are still those horrendous 1960s council estates within the constituency borders and I do not suppose they are hot beds of Conservative voters.
Looking at the electoral maps (https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/) Hammersmith would seem to have much the same sort of mix, but perhaps missing out on the small area of poshness that has always bordered the South side of Battersea Park.
Battersea is about 43% owner occupied, compared to 33% in Hammersmith.
Was having a thunkle on the tram home about how Labour treat the working class, and how the working class have evolved over the last forty years. For some reason modern Labour treat the working classes as one blob of people, a worthy group of people that need benefits and condescending to, they wear flat caps and are the salts of the earth. The problem is that they are much more complicated than that, there are different groups within the class that need appealing to in different ways which is not just chucking tax credits at. This is where May steps in, her and the modern Conservatives seem in contact with the largest group of the working class that want stand on their own two feet, they want the safety net but don't to have to pay for their neighbours to raise large families whilst taking large amounts of benefits. The group Labour are targeting are looked down on by the rest and don't vote anyway. This is what happens when a party treats it's history as lore rather than as guidelines.
I read a (very sympathetic) biography of Gordon Brown when he became PM. Only a few bits have stuck in my mind, but one of those is that in the early days of working towards New Labour, Mr Brown had identified a major problem and insisted that measures had to be found to overcome it.
The 'major problem' was that after x years of Mrs Thatcher, the working classes had become very much more self-reliant.
I believed it, because it was a 'build-the-person-up' biography, not a 'trash-the-person' one. Just a very different view of what constitutes a 'problem'.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
First political sign seen outside St Mawes today. Vote Conservative. Nothing else seen in Truro St Just Falmouth or anywhere in their environs. The church of St Just in Roseland is worth the visit.
That's where I got married. Reception at Tresanton afterwards.
Good choice. St Mawes is bloody beautiful, as is St Just in Roseland.
Incidentally, if you ever go back, THE hotel in St Mawes is now The Idle Rocks. Stunning. With an even better location than Tresanton, and amazing food. Prices to match, however. Like, St Tropez prices. With the helicopter-taking clientele to go with.
I took my older daughter there a couple of weeks ago. The sun blazed. It was gorgeous. We walked to the cove where Jesus landed as a boy (in the legend). Cornwall in spring sunshine is paradise.
is that the old monastery across the water from St Mawes?
First political sign seen outside St Mawes today. Vote Conservative. Nothing else seen in Truro St Just Falmouth or anywhere in their environs. The church of St Just in Roseland is worth the visit.
That's where I got married. Reception at Tresanton afterwards.
Good choice. St Mawes is bloody beautiful, as is St Just in Roseland.
Incidentally, if you ever go back, THE hotel in St Mawes is now The Idle Rocks. Stunning. With an even better location than Tresanton, and amazing food. Prices to match, however. Like, St Tropez prices. With the helicopter-taking clientele to go with.
I took my older daughter there a couple of weeks ago. The sun blazed. It was gorgeous. We walked to the cove where Jesus landed as a boy (in the legend). Cornwall in spring sunshine is paradise.
We saw the Idle rocks on the way out. St Mawes is v unspoilt. I liked it immediately. Yesterday we were in mousehole which ticked no boxes
How far are the first time Labour voters in 1997, shifting to the centre-right 20 years later? Would be looking at the behaviour of 38+ voters.
They haven't shifted to the right. The Tory party with its guarantees on Overseas Aid, the "Triple Lock" and now the state setting energy prices, has moved to the left.
Theresa May is delivering the main objective from Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto as well.
Michael Foot wasn't all bad.
He was a good man, and a patriot. Sadly, he was also utterly economically illiterate.
He was also something of a hypocrite. After all, he made his reputation trashing the reputations of Baldwin and Chamberlain in The Guilty Men - having campaigned against re-armament as a Labour candidate in the 1935 election.
How far are the first time Labour voters in 1997, shifting to the centre-right 20 years later? Would be looking at the behaviour of 38+ voters.
They haven't shifted to the right. The Tory party with its guarantees on Overseas Aid, the "Triple Lock" and now the state setting energy prices, has moved to the left.
Theresa May is delivering the main objective from Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto as well.
Michael Foot wasn't all bad.
Sadly, he was also utterly economically illiterate.
So no wonder he supported Brexit
'Moved to the left' is a farcical claim unless the policies of 'Thatcher & Sons' 1979 to date are used to set the baseline.
Heath had a Prices Commission and Pay Board, replacing the Prices and Incomes Board. Electricity and gas were state-owned until 1986-90 & had no motivation to rip off consumers. Marketing Boards for Milk, Potatoes, Apples and Pears et al all aimed to avoid farmers being too prone to exploitation by large monopolistic buyers (of course, we don't have that in 2017), and so on.
The triple lock isn't exactly left-wing. It's a slow way to return the state pension to its pre-Thatcher value, i.e. in relation to incomes.
I am sure our genial host was not implying that you have to be a bit thick to vote Tory
I think he's sagely pointing out the correlation between age and paper qualifications.
He might also be pointing out that older folk are the ones who have lived longest with the wonders of the welfare state, the EU and have the most experience of life under left wing governments. They are all voting Tory.
Just watched the whole piece with Farron on the gay sex thing - he comes across as very slippery on the issue. He really seemed to struggle to adequately explain why he couldn't or wouldn't clearly answer the question before but he will now; he disputed that his own views have changed, but he was not convincing in why his view on why he should not answer the question clearly have changed in a few days.
Well he is remain but many liberals would not like to remain in the 1950s on this issue.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Yeah. Ignorant bastards. Take that Roger Scruton, for e.g.
Yes, plus the Tories are the only 1 of the 4 main UK parties led by an Oxbridge graduate, indeed Corbyn does not even have a degree
Corbyn only got E grades at A Level and it shows.
John Major left school with 3 O levels
Yes but Major went on to get banking qualifications. Corbyn started a course in Trade Union Studies but thought he knew better than his teachers so left.
How far are the first time Labour voters in 1997, shifting to the centre-right 20 years later? Would be looking at the behaviour of 38+ voters.
They haven't shifted to the right. The Tory party with its guarantees on Overseas Aid, the "Triple Lock" and now the state setting energy prices, has moved to the left.
Theresa May is delivering the main objective from Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto as well.
Michael Foot wasn't all bad.
Sadly, he was also utterly economically illiterate.
So no wonder he supported Brexit
'Moved to the left' is a farcical claim unless the policies of 'Thatcher & Sons' 1979 to date are used to set the baseline.
Heath had a Prices Commission and Pay Board, replacing the Prices and Incomes Board. Electricity and gas were state-owned until 1986-90 & had no motivation to rip off consumers. Marketing Boards for Milk, Potatoes, Apples and Pears et al all aimed to avoid farmers being too prone to exploitation by large monopolistic buyers (of course, we don't have that in 2017), and so on.
The triple lock isn't exactly left-wing. It's a slow way to return the state pension to its pre-Thatcher value, i.e. in relation to incomes.
Facts are always fun, when taken out of context.
My favourite, the higher rate of tax, on average, was lower during the thirteen years Gordon Brown was Chancellor or PM, than the eleven years Margaret Thatcher was PM.
Ergo, Gordon Brown was in favouring low taxes for the rich, whilst Mrs Thatcher was in favour of soaking the rich.
Bucking all trends, swimming against the tide and going against all conventional wisdom... I say the Conservatives are too short at 1/4 in Thurrock!
Here are my reasons
The Conservatives retained the seat in a 3 way marginal last time, with 974 votes separating 1st and 3rd
Conservative Jackie Doyle-Price 16,692 33.7 −3.1 Labour Polly Billington 16,156 32.6 −4.0 UKIP Tim Aker 15,718 31.7 +24.3
I reckon this was down to the threat of Labour and the SNP, getting in. There is no chance of that this time. Doyle Price also boasted of having prevented the new Dartford Crossing, that has just been approved to much dismay, on her election literature in 2015. Locals were not happy with her performance
UKIP have become the largest party on Thurrock council in the meantime, and their candidate looks to be local councillor and MEP Tim Aker once more. The guy that runs "Westmonster" w Arron Banks, Michael Heaver, is heavily involved in Thurrock along with a couple of UKIP young pups that are very enthusiastic (Dan Jukes who works for Farage and Jack Duffin who is/was head of Young UKIP). No doubt more money and resources will be thrown at this seat than any other
I would say this is more like 1/2 2/1, so UKIP at 4/1 w Betfair appeals to me. Definitely their best chance of a seat
Labour 2/1 Hammersmith is the value there - 14% majority in a very divided constituency.
On balance, I'd expect Labour to lose but it has lots of social housing, and a big Afro-Caribbean population, both good for Labour.
So does Battersea, but apparently that is a solid Conservative seat now.
Battersea is far posher.
Really, Mr. F? I shall have to take you word for it and that of Mr. Richard who also corrected me but I do so with some reluctance.
I was born in Wandsworth, went to school in Battersea and until a couple of years ago my route into Town took me through the area on a weekly basis. Whilst some parts have definitely gone up market, e.g. Little India (so-called because of the road names before anyone asks) there are still those horrendous 1960s council estates within the constituency borders and I do not suppose they are hot beds of Conservative voters.
Looking at the electoral maps (https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/) Hammersmith would seem to have much the same sort of mix, but perhaps missing out on the small area of poshness that has always bordered the South side of Battersea Park.
Battersea is 41% owner occupier, 12% Black and 5% Muslim Hammersmith is 31% owner occupier, 14% Black, and 12% Muslim
Was having a thunkle on the tram home about how Labour treat the working class, and how the working class have evolved over the last forty years. For some reason modern Labour treat the working classes as one blob of people, a worthy group of people that need benefits and condescending to, they wear flat caps and are the salts of the earth. The problem is that they are much more complicated than that, there are different groups within the class that need appealing to in different ways which is not just chucking tax credits at. This is where May steps in, her and the modern Conservatives seem in contact with the largest group of the working class that want stand on their own two feet, they want the safety net but don't to have to pay for their neighbours to raise large families whilst taking large amounts of benefits. The group Labour are targeting are looked down on by the rest and don't vote anyway. This is what happens when a party treats it's history as lore rather than as guidelines.
The Labour mindset is all about collectivism and power through solidarity, and they do tend to see society as a collection of interest groups to be captured and represented collectively. One can understand from their founding history why this is so, since back when their constituency genuinely had no influence or rights, they had to win power and protection by sticking together, punishing anyone who undermined their collective endeavour by stepping out of line.
But there is no place here for individuality or individualism, which is a growing feature of the modern age, and they struggle with decentralisation and giving up control. Even New Labour tried to micro-manage everything with a tsunami of targets and indicators. At their worst both Labour and trade union politics revolves around 'the party line' coming from on high, committee 'management' and making sure the troops and the masses are kept under control. Some Labour people I have met genuinely do refer to the manifesto to find out what they think about issues. All of which leads easily to taking people for granted. As you suggest, when working people stop behaving like a bloc and start having different views on different issues, the way Labour works starts to break down.
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
I am sure our genial host was not implying that you have to be a bit thick to vote Tory
I think he's sagely pointing out the correlation between age and paper qualifications.
He might also be pointing out that older folk are the ones who have lived longest with the wonders of the welfare state, the EU and have the most experience of life under left wing governments. They are all voting Tory.
Yes it's funny how people who remember Labour in the 1970s are not keen on a repeat.
Labour 2/1 Hammersmith is the value there - 14% majority in a very divided constituency.
On balance, I'd expect Labour to lose but it has lots of social housing, and a big Afro-Caribbean population, both good for Labour.
So does Battersea, but apparently that is a solid Conservative seat now.
Battersea is far posher.
Really, Mr. F? I shall have to take you word for it and that of Mr. Richard who also corrected me but I do so with some reluctance.
I was born in Wandsworth, went to school in Battersea and until a couple of years ago my route into Town took me through the area on a weekly basis. Whilst some parts have definitely gone up market, e.g. Little India (so-called because of the road names before anyone asks) there are still those horrendous 1960s council estates within the constituency borders and I do not suppose they are hot beds of Conservative voters.
Looking at the electoral maps (https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/) Hammersmith would seem to have much the same sort of mix, but perhaps missing out on the small area of poshness that has always bordered the South side of Battersea Park.
I suspect you and I went to the same school albeit I was there after you.
I lived in Clapham but knew Battersea fairly well - there were some hideous estates in battersea.
Things have changed but Battersea really was nothing special in the 70's and early 80's
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Touchy touchy.
But the Tories are ahead at every educational level. So by definition if you are thick or a genius, you will vote Tory. Which makes sense. Geniuses are eccentric, but not that eccentric. Even they can see that Labour under Corbyn are SHITE.
To be fair, it does require a certain amount of intellectual ingenuity to justify a vote for Corbyn.
Blimey. Chuggers just walked away from my door when they saw the No Cold Callers sign. That's a first. Strange times. British Heart Foundation. That gets them a donation.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Touchy touchy.
But the Tories are ahead at every educational level. So by definition if you are thick or a genius, you will vote Tory. Which makes sense. Geniuses are eccentric, but not that eccentric. Even they can see that Labour under Corbyn are SHITE.
We are talking about the differential here. That was the point.
It was like Brexit. The folk who were less educated had a higher propensity to vote Leave while those who were better educated had a higher propensity to vote Remain.
It is not quite like Brexit, Remain won graduates, the Tories still lead with graduates in this poll, just that they have an even larger lead with Leave voters without qualifications or just GCSEs
How far are the first time Labour voters in 1997, shifting to the centre-right 20 years later? Would be looking at the behaviour of 38+ voters.
They haven't shifted to the right. The Tory party with its guarantees on Overseas Aid, the "Triple Lock" and now the state setting energy prices, has moved to the left.
Theresa May is delivering the main objective from Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto as well.
Michael Foot wasn't all bad.
Sadly, he was also utterly economically illiterate.
So no wonder he supported Brexit
'Moved to the left' is a farcical claim unless the policies of 'Thatcher & Sons' 1979 to date are used to set the baseline.
Heath had a Prices Commission and Pay Board, replacing the Prices and Incomes Board. Electricity and gas were state-owned until 1986-90 & had no motivation to rip off consumers. Marketing Boards for Milk, Potatoes, Apples and Pears et al all aimed to avoid farmers being too prone to exploitation by large monopolistic buyers (of course, we don't have that in 2017), and so on.
The triple lock isn't exactly left-wing. It's a slow way to return the state pension to its pre-Thatcher value, i.e. in relation to incomes.
Facts are always fun, when taken out of context.
My favourite, the higher rate of tax, on average, was lower during the thirteen years Gordon Brown was Chancellor or PM, than the eleven years Margaret Thatcher was PM.
Ergo, Gordon Brown was in favouring low taxes for the rich, whilst Mrs Thatcher was in favour of soaking the rich.
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Touchy touchy.
But the Tories are ahead at every educational level. So by definition if you are thick or a genius, you will vote Tory. Which makes sense. Geniuses are eccentric, but not that eccentric. Even they can see that Labour under Corbyn are SHITE.
We are talking about the differential here. That was the point.
It was like Brexit. The folk who were less educated had a higher propensity to vote Leave while those who were better educated had a higher propensity to vote Remain.
Well, so what? In one sentence you manage a false antithesis of "less" versus "better" and overlook the critical confounding factor of age (because pre-1990s almost nobody got a degree, and now almost everybody does). Let me guess: like most intellectual snobs, you have a poor degree in a pretend subject from a re-badged poly, and if you want to laugh at the "less educated", I can promise you that from where I'm standing you are one of them.
Was having a thunkle on the tram home about how Labour treat the working class, and how the working class have evolved over the last forty years. For some reason modern Labour treat the working classes as one blob of people, a worthy group of people that need benefits and condescending to, they wear flat caps and are the salts of the earth. The problem is that they are much more complicated than that, there are different groups within the class that need appealing to in different ways which is not just chucking tax credits at. This is where May steps in, her and the modern Conservatives seem in contact with the largest group of the working class that want stand on their own two feet, they want the safety net but don't to have to pay for their neighbours to raise large families whilst taking large amounts of benefits. The group Labour are targeting are looked down on by the rest and don't vote anyway. This is what happens when a party treats it's history as lore rather than as guidelines.
I read a (very sympathetic) biography of Gordon Brown when he became PM. Only a few bits have stuck in my mind, but one of those is that in the early days of working towards New Labour, Mr Brown had identified a major problem and insisted that measures had to be found to overcome it.
The 'major problem' was that after x years of Mrs Thatcher, the working classes had become very much more self-reliant.
I believed it, because it was a 'build-the-person-up' biography, not a 'trash-the-person' one. Just a very different view of what constitutes a 'problem'.
Tax credits stopped being of any use over ten years ago, all they do now is subsidise low margin, high volume companies within more expensive to live cities. It explains part of the problem with productivity in the UK, for a lot of people working harder does not mean they can earn more so why bother? Brown was trying to help the working classes in my opinion....whilst at the same time creating a nice, solid client state. But those who do not benefit from his munificence became annoyed during the last crash, they were left high and dry whilst Brown's chosen people kept getting their benefits. And how did Brown solve the recession? More benefits, he never targeted the issues with more funding he just turned the taps on.
News from Trump - just put tariffs on Canadian lumber and when asked if this will start a trade war he said no as Canada has a large trade surplus with the US.
And to think some on here thought the talks with the EU and US would result in a deal - seems only if Germany takes the hit on it's trade surplus
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
Waitrose - full of riff-raff. The discerning Northern shopper gives their custom to Booths.
Labour 2/1 Hammersmith is the value there - 14% majority in a very divided constituency.
On balance, I'd expect Labour to lose but it has lots of social housing, and a big Afro-Caribbean population, both good for Labour.
So does Battersea, but apparently that is a solid Conservative seat now.
Battersea is far posher.
Really, Mr. F? I shall have to take you word for it and that of Mr. Richard who also corrected me but I do so with some reluctance.
I was born in Wandsworth, went to school in Battersea and until a couple of years ago my route into Town took me through the area on a weekly basis. Whilst some parts have definitely gone up market, e.g. Little India (so-called because of the road names before anyone asks) there are still those horrendous 1960s council estates within the constituency borders and I do not suppose they are hot beds of Conservative voters.
Looking at the electoral maps (https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/) Hammersmith would seem to have much the same sort of mix, but perhaps missing out on the small area of poshness that has always bordered the South side of Battersea Park.
I suspect you and I went to the same school albeit I was there after you.
I lived in Clapham but knew Battersea fairly well - there were some hideous estates in battersea.
Things have changed but Battersea really was nothing special in the 70's and early 80's
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
Waitrose - full of riff-raff. The discerning Northern shopper gives their custom to Booths.
I believe it was the late Alan Coren who said that he liked Sainsburys because it kept the riff-raff out of Waitrose....
Just watched the whole piece with Farron on the gay sex thing - he comes across as very slippery on the issue. He really seemed to struggle to adequately explain why he couldn't or wouldn't clearly answer the question before but he will now; he disputed that his own views have changed, but he was not convincing in why his view on why he should not answer the question clearly have changed in a few days.
It sounds to me very much as though he's been putting off doing the hard thinking needed to identify exactly what his own beliefs are on the issue. A bit hard to believe he didn't foresee the need for an answer, but some people do put things off by nature.
For a believer, there are many issues where where you don't need to form a reasoned opinion until that particular issue becomes important in your life. Maybe this is one of those for Mr Farron.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
Quick quiz: we use Amazon Fresh for all our deliveries. Does that correlate with Leave or Remain?
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Yeah. Ignorant bastards. Take that Roger Scruton, for e.g.
Yes, plus the Tories are the only 1 of the 4 main UK parties led by an Oxbridge graduate, indeed Corbyn does not even have a degree
Corbyn only got E grades at A Level and it shows.
John Major left school with 3 O levels
Yes but Major went on to get banking qualifications. Corbyn started a course in Trade Union Studies but thought he knew better than his teachers so left.
Surely mindlessly knowing best with little or no knowledge meant he got an A* in Trade Union studies?
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Snapped up - I'd be happy if just one pulled off!
I've got a tenner on each so I can do a "Sean Thomas" meal to celebrate with my wife if they both come off!
Labour and the lib dems are fighting with each other for the younger, urban, educated voters, while the cons sweep everyone who isn't.
A few more percent Lab>LD in the right seats, a few more percent to the tories in labour safe seats - and we could end up with the SNP as the opposition.
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
Yeah. Ignorant bastards. Take that Roger Scruton, for e.g.
Yes, plus the Tories are the only 1 of the 4 main UK parties led by an Oxbridge graduate, indeed Corbyn does not even have a degree
Corbyn only got E grades at A Level and it shows.
Sadly, that is a significant part of the Labour leadership's problem.
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Thanks. Put a £1 on each.
Suddenly blocked to me on BF Sports. Eh?
West has gone blank, and East is now 33/1. They move fast, don't they?
Bucking all trends, swimming against the tide and going against all conventional wisdom... I say the Conservatives are too short at 1/4 in Thurrock!
Here are my reasons
The Conservatives retained the seat in a 3 way marginal last time, with 974 votes separating 1st and 3rd
Conservative Jackie Doyle-Price 16,692 33.7 −3.1 Labour Polly Billington 16,156 32.6 −4.0 UKIP Tim Aker 15,718 31.7 +24.3
I reckon this was down to the threat of Labour and the SNP, getting in. There is no chance of that this time. Doyle Price also boasted of having prevented the new Dartford Crossing, that has just been approved to much dismay, on her election literature in 2015. Locals were not happy with her performance
UKIP have become the largest party on Thurrock council in the meantime, and their candidate looks to be local councillor and MEP Tim Aker once more. The guy that runs "Westmonster" w Arron Banks, Michael Heaver, is heavily involved in Thurrock along with a couple of UKIP young pups that are very enthusiastic (Dan Jukes who works for Farage and Jack Duffin who is/was head of Young UKIP). No doubt more money and resources will be thrown at this seat than any other
I would say this is more like 1/2 2/1, so UKIP at 4/1 w Betfair appeals to me. Definitely their best chance of a seat
Interesting tip and may be worth a fiver. The danger, I guess, is too many straight Labour to Tory switchers.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
Quick quiz: we use Amazon Fresh for all our deliveries. Does that correlate with Leave or Remain?
Remain - you are supporting the vast influx of Eastern Europeans who's cheap labour keeps our distribution network functioning
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Snapped up - I'd be happy if just one pulled off!
I've got a tenner on each so I can do a "Sean Thomas" meal to celebrate with my wife if they both come off!
Wow, these sums. Paddy Power only wanted £1.06 from me. Betfair Sportsbook don't want ANY of my money any more.
Just switched to BBC news from Chelsea game and a repetitive strap line says 'Liberal Democrat Leader, Tim Farron, says he does not think gay sex is a sin' - clarifying a question he had refused to answer.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
Quick quiz: we use Amazon Fresh for all our deliveries. Does that correlate with Leave or Remain?
News from Trump - just put tariffs on Canadian lumber and when asked if this will start a trade war he said no as Canada has a large trade surplus with the US.
And to think some on here thought the talks with the EU and US would result in a deal - seems only if Germany takes the hit on it's trade surplus
There's a big difference: The EU negotiates as an equal. Canada does not.
All of which leads easily to taking people for granted. As you suggest, when working people stop behaving like a bloc and start having different views on different issues, the way Labour works starts to break down.
Which is why the somewhere vs. anywhere thesis is a problem for Labour, it's not that we've completely stopped behaving as groups, but the groups (plural) we belong to are no longer organised only traditional class lines. Labour needs to change a lot to reconnect with a large number of the electorate, but currently they seem to be appeal to nobody (or at least a rapidly shrinking group) by trying to appeal to too many people.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
Quick quiz: we use Amazon Fresh for all our deliveries. Does that correlate with Leave or Remain?
OK, BF, you voided my Woking 66/1 on the Tories, and that was clearly a legitimate error, but you won't void my Kingston ones will you? They might be more likely than 66/1 but they're not 1/200 like Woking was changed to!
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Thanks. Put a £1 on each.
Suddenly blocked to me on BF Sports. Eh?
West has gone blank, and East is now 33/1. They move fast, don't they?
Edit 16/1
This is crazy. Are PBers the only people on these markets, so the minute we discuss anything the powers-that-be shut it down.
Was having a thunkle on the tram home about how Labour treat the working class, and how the working class have evolved over the last forty years. For some reason modern Labour treat the working classes as one blob of people, a worthy group of people that need benefits and condescending to, they wear flat caps and are the salts of the earth. The problem is that they are much more complicated than that, there are different groups within the class that need appealing to in different ways which is not just chucking tax credits at. This is where May steps in, her and the modern Conservatives seem in contact with the largest group of the working class that want stand on their own two feet, they want the safety net but don't to have to pay for their neighbours to raise large families whilst taking large amounts of benefits. The group Labour are targeting are looked down on by the rest and don't vote anyway. This is what happens when a party treats it's history as lore rather than as guidelines.
The Labour mindset is all about collectivism and power through solidarity, and they do tend to see society as a collection of interest groups to be captured and represented collectively. One can understand from their founding history why this is so, since back when their constituency genuinely had no influence or rights, they had to win power and protection by sticking together, punishing anyone who undermined their collective endeavour by stepping out of line.
But there is no place here for individuality or individualism, which is a growing feature of the modern age, and they struggle with decentralisation and giving up control. Even New Labour tried to micro-manage everything with a tsunami of targets and indicators. At their worst both Labour and trade union politics revolves around 'the party line' coming from on high, committee 'management' and making sure the troops and the masses are kept under control. Some Labour people I have met genuinely do refer to the manifesto to find out what they think about issues. All of which leads easily to taking people for granted. As you suggest, when working people stop behaving like a bloc and start having different views on different issues, the way Labour works starts to break down.
They are swiftly becoming a 20th century solution to a 21st century problem, as you say. They stopped really representing the working class in the late sixties, instead they started working for their proxies in the Trade Unions who then in turn disconnected from the bulk of the working class in the seventies which resulted in Thatcher. The Tories have always evolved by cutting away ties to their past, they still hang on to a lot of it but they are not bound to it in entirety. Labour are glued to it, like they need it because without it what would they be?
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Snapped up - I'd be happy if just one pulled off!
I've got a tenner on each so I can do a "Sean Thomas" meal to celebrate with my wife if they both come off!
I thought a "Sean Thomas" meal involved eating on your own somewhere overseas while posting on PB?
News from Trump - just put tariffs on Canadian lumber and when asked if this will start a trade war he said no as Canada has a large trade surplus with the US.
And to think some on here thought the talks with the EU and US would result in a deal - seems only if Germany takes the hit on it's trade surplus
There's actually a good case under WTO rules for arguing that Canadian lumber is government subsidised, and it's only been the strength of the US-Canada friendship that has stopped historic action.
Canada is in no position to fight with the US. 80% of their exports go to the US, and there is literally no other place they can sell oil and gas to, due to a lack of export terminals. Expect opposition to LNG liquifaction plants to disappear.
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Thanks. Put a £1 on each.
Suddenly blocked to me on BF Sports. Eh?
West has gone blank, and East is now 33/1. They move fast, don't they?
Edit 16/1
This is crazy. Are PBers the only people on these markets, so the minute we discuss anything the powers-that-be shut it down.
I have no idea how it works - are the amounts bet on them so small (makes sense) that they are programmed to shift dramatically if there is even a tiny surge on a particular bet?
News from Trump - just put tariffs on Canadian lumber and when asked if this will start a trade war he said no as Canada has a large trade surplus with the US.
And to think some on here thought the talks with the EU and US would result in a deal - seems only if Germany takes the hit on it's trade surplus
There's a big difference: The EU negotiates as an equal. Canada does not.
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Thanks. Put a £1 on each.
Suddenly blocked to me on BF Sports. Eh?
West has gone blank, and East is now 33/1. They move fast, don't they?
Edit 16/1
This is crazy. Are PBers the only people on these markets, so the minute we discuss anything the powers-that-be shut it down.
If you want to bet on a Labour wipeout, the 66/1 on the Tories available in Kingston-upon-Hull East and Kingston-upon-Hull West, from both PP and Betfair Sports, looks great.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
Thanks. I'm on both now. Definitely worth a punt, especially where Johnson is standing down.
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
I see OGH is playing the snobbery card, saying the less educated you are the more likely you are to vote Tory. However he ignores the rather evident fact that the Tories still have an 8% lead over Labour even with graduates https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856940586133225472/photo/1
It's funny how it's the Liberal Democrats who are now the most snobbish and elitist.
"Waitrose".. "Educated"..
Yuk.
OGH's classic quip now is how he looks forward to going to Waitrose every week because it is largely free of Leave voters
Waitrose - full of riff-raff. The discerning Northern shopper gives their custom to Booths.
I believe it was the late Alan Coren who said that he liked Sainsburys because it kept the riff-raff out of Waitrose....
Those of us who shop at Sainsbury's take the same attitude with respect to Tesco :-)
Comments
older voters didnt have as many opportunities for higher education
whereas as those young Corbynites have degrees in facebook
not sure I'd want them runnng the country though
That grounding could keep the Tories in power for a while.
It was like Brexit. The folk who were less educated had a higher propensity to vote Leave while those who were better educated had a higher propensity to vote Remain.
I was born in Wandsworth, went to school in Battersea and until a couple of years ago my route into Town took me through the area on a weekly basis. Whilst some parts have definitely gone up market, e.g. Little India (so-called because of the road names before anyone asks) there are still those horrendous 1960s council estates within the constituency borders and I do not suppose they are hot beds of Conservative voters.
Looking at the electoral maps (https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/) Hammersmith would seem to have much the same sort of mix, but perhaps missing out on the small area of poshness that has always bordered the South side of Battersea Park.
(But if they keep their sandals on, that is just kinky.)
CON: 46%
LAB: 24%
Bedwetters: 11%
Others: 8%
The 'major problem' was that after x years of Mrs Thatcher, the working classes had become very much more self-reliant.
I believed it, because it was a 'build-the-person-up' biography, not a 'trash-the-person' one. Just a very different view of what constitutes a 'problem'.
Nearly as much fun as suggesting we give Gibraltar to Spain to get a good Brexit deal.
Heath had a Prices Commission and Pay Board, replacing the Prices and Incomes Board. Electricity and gas were state-owned until 1986-90 & had no motivation to rip off consumers. Marketing Boards for Milk, Potatoes, Apples and Pears et al all aimed to avoid farmers being too prone to exploitation by large monopolistic buyers (of course, we don't have that in 2017), and so on.
The triple lock isn't exactly left-wing. It's a slow way to return the state pension to its pre-Thatcher value, i.e. in relation to incomes.
He might also be pointing out that older folk are the ones who have lived longest with the wonders of the welfare state, the EU and have the most experience of life under left wing governments. They are all voting Tory.
My favourite, the higher rate of tax, on average, was lower during the thirteen years Gordon Brown was Chancellor or PM, than the eleven years Margaret Thatcher was PM.
Ergo, Gordon Brown was in favouring low taxes for the rich, whilst Mrs Thatcher was in favour of soaking the rich.
Here are my reasons
The Conservatives retained the seat in a 3 way marginal last time, with 974 votes separating 1st and 3rd
Conservative Jackie Doyle-Price 16,692 33.7 −3.1
Labour Polly Billington 16,156 32.6 −4.0
UKIP Tim Aker 15,718 31.7 +24.3
I reckon this was down to the threat of Labour and the SNP, getting in. There is no chance of that this time. Doyle Price also boasted of having prevented the new Dartford Crossing, that has just been approved to much dismay, on her election literature in 2015. Locals were not happy with her performance
http://www.southendstandard.co.uk/news/14278459.Campaigners_have__lost_confidence__in_Thurrock_MP_Jackie_Doyle_Price_following_Thames_crossing_letter/
She was also the only South Essex MP to campaign for REMAIN, in a constituency that voted 72/28 LEAVE.
http://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/eu_referendum/14569694.Jackie_Doyle_Price_becomes_only_south_Essex_MP_to_come_out_in_support_of_remaining_in_the_EU/
UKIP have become the largest party on Thurrock council in the meantime, and their candidate looks to be local councillor and MEP Tim Aker once more. The guy that runs "Westmonster" w Arron Banks, Michael Heaver, is heavily involved in Thurrock along with a couple of UKIP young pups that are very enthusiastic (Dan Jukes who works for Farage and Jack Duffin who is/was head of Young UKIP). No doubt more money and resources will be thrown at this seat than any other
I would say this is more like 1/2 2/1, so UKIP at 4/1 w Betfair appeals to me. Definitely their best chance of a seat
Hammersmith is 31% owner occupier, 14% Black, and 12% Muslim
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/battersea/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/hammersmith/
Or rather were - I suspect any demographic change in the last few years has benefitted the Conservatives rather more in Battersea than in Hammersmith.
But there is no place here for individuality or individualism, which is a growing feature of the modern age, and they struggle with decentralisation and giving up control. Even New Labour tried to micro-manage everything with a tsunami of targets and indicators. At their worst both Labour and trade union politics revolves around 'the party line' coming from on high, committee 'management' and making sure the troops and the masses are kept under control. Some Labour people I have met genuinely do refer to the manifesto to find out what they think about issues. All of which leads easily to taking people for granted. As you suggest, when working people stop behaving like a bloc and start having different views on different issues, the way Labour works starts to break down.
Hull voted over 67% to Leave the EU, and has just the sort of constituency profile that May is appealing toward. The majorities in both barely scrape c. 10,000. West has a combined Tory/UKIP vote from GE2015 of 37.4% and East of 38.3%.
They are Labour's 72nd and 91st safest seats, according to Baxter, and a long way down the target list for the Tories. But I suspect they are actually much more vulnerable than that. It wouldn't take an earthquake for the Labour vote to drop from the current c.50% enough to carry the Tories across the line in the low 40s. Plus, Alan Johnson is standing down in West.
And, in any event, even if you disagree, at these odds it doesn't matter.
I lived in Clapham but knew Battersea fairly well - there were some hideous estates in battersea.
Things have changed but Battersea really was nothing special in the 70's and early 80's
Their rapid move from 2.5 to 1.53 makes them a no bet for me in Edinburgh West
Brown was trying to help the working classes in my opinion....whilst at the same time creating a nice, solid client state. But those who do not benefit from his munificence became annoyed during the last crash, they were left high and dry whilst Brown's chosen people kept getting their benefits. And how did Brown solve the recession? More benefits, he never targeted the issues with more funding he just turned the taps on.
And to think some on here thought the talks with the EU and US would result in a deal - seems only if Germany takes the hit on it's trade surplus
For a believer, there are many issues where where you don't need to form a reasoned opinion until that particular issue becomes important in your life. Maybe this is one of those for Mr Farron.
Yes.
Labour and the lib dems are fighting with each other for the younger, urban, educated voters, while the cons sweep everyone who isn't.
A few more percent Lab>LD in the right seats, a few more percent to the tories in labour safe seats - and we could end up with the SNP as the opposition.
Really not too far fetched.
Edit 16/1
Betfair Sportsbook don't want ANY of my money any more.
Is this real - it has been going on for days
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/business/2016/06/tea-leavers-and-champagne-remain-what-your-shopping-basket-says-about-your
The Tories have always evolved by cutting away ties to their past, they still hang on to a lot of it but they are not bound to it in entirety. Labour are glued to it, like they need it because without it what would they be?
Canada is in no position to fight with the US. 80% of their exports go to the US, and there is literally no other place they can sell oil and gas to, due to a lack of export terminals. Expect opposition to LNG liquifaction plants to disappear.
Paddy Power going bust is probably the biggest risk with this bet.