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  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,149
    Scott_P said:
    Is she thick, it wasn't a Conservative pledge. Christ.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    And this week's C P Scott prize for most ludicrous anti-Tory hyperbole amongst Guardian commentators goes to ... drum roll .. George Monbiot (again!).

    "I’d rather live with Jeremy Corbyn’s gentle dithering in pursuit of a better world than give May a mandate to destroy what remains of British decency"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/25/vote-labour-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411
    HYUFD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Say what you like about God. When people start taking the mickey out of his Prophets because they are bald, he takes action!

    2 Kings, Chapter 2
    23 From there Elisha went up to Bethel. As he was walking along the road, some boys came out of the town and jeered at him. “Get out of here, baldy!” they said. “Get out of here, baldy!”
    24 He turned around, looked at them and called down a curse on them in the name of the Lord. Then two bears came out of the woods and mauled forty-two of the boys.

    Might be a good idea for Paul Nuttall to attend church a bit more often before polling day!
    That's Saint Nuttall to you.
  • Gives me an excuse to share this.

    image
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,541

    And this week's C P Scott prize for most ludicrous anti-Tory hyperbole amongst Guardian commentators goes to ... drum roll .. George Monbiot (again!).

    "I’d rather live with Jeremy Corbyn’s gentle dithering in pursuit of a better world than give May a mandate to destroy what remains of British decency"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/25/vote-labour-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may

    Where's the fun in that? :p
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Farron sounds like he is in a right royal pickle over this gay shagging lark. Putting me off voting Liberal, truth be told. But May is also God Squad, I understand. Has anyone asked her whether she considers gay sex the work of Lord Beelzebub?

    I would be very interested in her answer, given the struggles Farron has had with it (and I know one Tory-considering-LD who has been put off by his answers to date, so what they'd do if May said the same things IDK)
    Go Green maybe but this is all
    Rubbish. Several tons of crap spouted by the bible is .
    Surely Christians believe that all extramarital sex is sinful?
    They do, Gove was just putting politics before religion
    You do not speak for all Christians!
    former
    I am no Catholic, so do not expect me to either defend or speak for the pope, but the Catholic Church
    Whether ordinary people or the priesthood reading the Bible none of them can deny it states sexual activity should only take place in a heterosexual marriage
    They can and frequently do.
    .
    Neither quote mentions homosexuality.

    In much of the Bible the relationship between man and God is allegorically described as a marriage. The condemnation of adultery should be understood in this context as a lack of religious fidelity.

    You shall not lie with a male as with a woman. It is an abomination. (NKJ, Leviticus 18:22)

    Do you not know that the wicked will not inherit the kingdom of God? Do not be deceived: Neither the sexually immoral nor idolaters nor adulterers nor male prostitutes nor homosexual offenders nor thieves nor the greedy nor drunkards nor slanderers nor swindlers will inherit the kingdom of God. And that is what some of you were. But you were washed, you were sanctified, you were justified in the name of the Lord Jesus Christ and by the Spirit of our God. (NIV, 1st Corinthians 6:9-11)
    Your first quote is as obselete as the rest of Leviticus, made obselete by the New Covenant.

    The second is merely a call to conversion to the spiritual life from the material world.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    edited April 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Farron sounds like he is in a right royal pickle over this gay shagging lark. Putting me off voting Liberal, truth be told. But May is also God Squad, I understand. Has anyone asked her whether she considers gay sex the work of Lord Beelzebub?

    I would be very IDK)
    Go Green maybe but this is all
    Rubbish. Several tons of crap spouted by the bible is .
    Surely Christians believe that all extramarital sex is sinful?
    They do, Gove was just putting politics before religion
    You do not speak for all Christians!
    former
    I am no Catholic, so do not expect me to either defend or speak for the pope, but the Catholic Church
    Whether ordinary people or the priesthood reading the Bible none of them can deny it states sexual activity should only take place in a heterosexual marriage
    They can and frequently do.
    .
    Neither quote mentions homosexuality.

    In much of the Bible the relationship between man and God is allegorically described as a marriage. The condemnation of adultery should be understood in this context as a lack of religious fidelity.

    You shall not lie with a male as with a woman. It is an abomination. (NKJ, Leviticus 18:22)

    Do you not know that the )
    Your first quote is as obselete as the rest of Leviticus, made obselete by the New Covenant.

    The second is merely a call to conversion to the spiritual life from the material world.
    Matthew 19:4-6, "And He answered and said, 'Have you not read that He who created them from the beginning made them male and female, 5 and said, ‘For this reason a man shall leave his father and mother and be joined to his wife, and the two shall become one flesh’? 6 “So they are no longer two, but one flesh. What therefore God has joined together, let no man separate.'”

    Matt. 19:9, “And I say to you, whoever divorces his wife, except for immorality, and marries another woman commits adultery.”

    Matthew 10:15, "Truly I say to you, it will be more tolerable for the land of Sodom and Gomorrah in the day of judgment than for that city."
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is she thick, it wasn't a Conservative pledge. Christ.
    It was Boris's pledge though. May can only discard the pledge by making BoJo also person non grata.

    Ditching BoJo is pretty certain to be required before Brexit talks begin. No one takes that clown seriously as a negotiator. He will be reshuffled to teaboy post election.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is she thick, it wasn't a Conservative pledge. Christ.
    Yes.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,149
    One thing that occurs. If the election is a bloodbath for Labour could the Conservatives end up with more female MPs than Labour?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/856800182511575040

    Labour's election platform revealed: shake the magic money tree, spend on cuddly stuff, ignore all the other difficult issues. Pray that enough voters are so thick that their love of "free" everything causes them to forget to ask us where the money to pay for it all is actually meant to come from, let alone other difficult questions about things that make us cry. Like immigration, Europe, and our leadership's predilection for supporting Irish Republican and Islamist gangsters.

    The Labour Party seems to be doing its best to throw itself into the dustbin of history. I just pray that it makes as quick and as complete a job of it as possible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411
    edited April 2017

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is she thick, it wasn't a Conservative pledge. Christ.
    It was Boris's pledge though. May can only discard the pledge by making BoJo also person non grata.

    Ditching BoJo is pretty certain to be required before Brexit talks begin. No one takes that clown seriously as a negotiator. He will be reshuffled to teaboy post election.
    I do hope not, I've got a bet on him lasting the year as Foreign Sec. I think burying him would be a bit harsh though.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Is there a market up for percentage bands for the French second round election?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411

    Is there a market up for percentage bands for the French second round election?

    Betfair exchange.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,541
    ToryJim said:

    This caption fail is amusing

    twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/856998837671612417

    Par for the Telegraph these days.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/856800182511575040

    Labour's election platform revealed: shake the magic money tree, spend on cuddly stuff, ignore all the other difficult issues. Pray that enough voters are so thick that their love of "free" everything causes them to forget to ask us where the money to pay for it all is actually meant to come from

    It can work - there's some stuff in their people would indeed like - but when the leader is so disliked and distrusted? Seems doubtful.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited April 2017
    Looking at the pictures of Keir Starmer today, is it just me or does he have the beginnings of a Boris facsimile hairdo?

    Let it it grow out 3months their Keir and lets see what happens.

    Betting Post.

    The talks about pro remain candidates agreeing common candidates versus Unionists look to have failed. The Greens have broken first on signing up on basis that the SDLP has some serious Catholic conservatives and Sinn Fein don't bother participating at Westminster.

    In reality, their leader Steven Agnew was warned that he'd be seen as the cover for a nationalist pact in all but name. Not a great idea for guy who's Assembly seat is in one of the most unionist constituencies in NI.

    This may well have consequences for Alisdair McDonnell in South Belfast, especially if the Unionists decide to go for a single candidate (itself subject to a row between the DUP & UUP) but it may not need an agreed unionist candidate anyway. It may just need UKIP not to stand.

    Sinn Fein haven't yet said if they'll stand aside in South Belfast to help McDonnell. Possible but for them it doesn't do them any good, especially since the SDLP are unlikely to give the Shinners a clean run in North Belfast, where the DUP will get the unionist field to themselves.


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    ToryJim said:

    One thing that occurs. If the election is a bloodbath for Labour could the Conservatives end up with more female MPs than Labour?

    Definitely if it's something like Con 400 Lab 150.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    marke09 said:
    Thanks. These predictions are never very accurate but they're better than nothing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Well that's clear then......

    SNP MPs sign fishing pledge that would keep Scotland out of the EU

    SNP MPs have been accused of “hypocrisy” on Europe after signing a pledge that would protect fishermen by keeping Scotland out of the EU.

    Politicians including Mike Weir, the Angus MP and party’s chief whip, and Banff and Buchan MP Eilidh Whiteford backed a campaign to keep the country free of Common Fisheries Policy rules, a cornerstone of Brussels rules....

    Scottish Conservative MSP Murdo Fraser said: “The nationalists can’t have it both ways – if you’re in the EU, you have to be in the CFP too.

    “It underlines the hypocrisy at the heart of the SNP when it comes to Brexit matters.”


    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/413072/snp-mps-sign-fishing-pledge-that-would-keep-scotland-out-of-the-eu/
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/856920054868344832

    On a list sorted by percentage majority, the first Labour defence where the incumbent has a majority of over 10,000 votes is, I believe, Hornsey & Wood Green - defence no.95. Available to the Liberal Democrats on a 9.6% swing.

    If Labour is worried about incurring losses on swings as high as this then Slough, Norwich South, Sedgefield, Bassetlaw and perhaps even Llanelli are all on the chopping block. They could find themselves with under 150 seats.

    A drubbing on that scale is some distance into too good to be true territory, but something only a little less dramatic is not entirely out of the question.

    And, after having mucked up its feeble attempt at a Brexit relaunch, Labour now has only 43 campaigning days left to convince the people of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and sustained in office by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is just what they've always wanted.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:
    Labour melting down, a la 1997 Tories. Falling apart over Europe. Personal manifestos being written. A total shambles.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,910
    HYUFD said:
    Was looking at Chuck's constituency of Streatham the other day and saw that for the majority of it's existence (back to 1923) it was actually Conservative but went Labout in 1992 and became a Labour heartland seat in more recent elections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    edited April 2017

    HYUFD said:
    Labour melting down, a la 1997 Tories. Falling apart over Europe. Personal manifestos being written. A total shambles.
    Yes, a clear commitment to the single market a la Chuka is becoming as important a virtue signal by Labour candidates as a clear commitment to keeping the pound was to Tory candidates in 1997, Corbyn dithering on Brexit as much as Major was then with his 'wait and see' and as the Referendum Party nibbled away at Major's Eurosceptic vote amidst Blair's landslide so the LDs threaten to nibble away at Corbyn's Europhile vote amidst May's landslide
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    HYUFD said:
    Labour melting down, a la 1997 Tories. Falling apart over Europe. Personal manifestos being written. A total shambles.
    I'm old enough to remember when "Europe" was supposed to be the issue that destroyed the Tory Party.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    HYUFD said:
    Labour melting down, a la 1997 Tories. Falling apart over Europe. Personal manifestos being written. A total shambles.
    It's much worse than the Tories in '97. They were indeed shambolic, but John Major was clearly capable of putting together at least a vaguely plausible government and had a very good Chancellor. And he hadn't lost a vote of confidence amongst his own MPs, or been rejected by his own cabinet.

    Labour 2017 is in a different league of shambolic, the likes of which are unknown in living memory. Possibly in recorded history.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Was looking at Chuck's constituency of Streatham the other day and saw that for the majority of it's existence (back to 1923) it was actually Conservative but went Labout in 1992 and became a Labour heartland seat in more recent elections.
    Lambeth voted 78% Remain so he has little to lose from this position
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,910
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Labour melting down, a la 1997 Tories. Falling apart over Europe. Personal manifestos being written. A total shambles.
    Yes, a clear commitment to the single market a la Chuka is becoming as important a virtue signal by Labour candidates as a clear commitment to keeping the pound was to Tory candidates in 1997, Corbyn dithering on Brexit as much as Major was then with his 'wait and see'
    Thing is, if Jezza was being true to himself and everything he's believed in for 40 years, he would be campaigning for a full Brexit... And would be in tune with his northern heartlands.

    It's the PLP that have split Labour, not Jezza.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "I've been number crunching - and the next Parliament could be more pale, male and stale than ever

    Cathy Newman
    Channel 4 News Presenter"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/politics/number-crunching-next-parliament-could-pale-male-stale-ever/
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,910

    HYUFD said:
    Labour melting down, a la 1997 Tories. Falling apart over Europe. Personal manifestos being written. A total shambles.
    It's much worse than the Tories in '97. They were indeed shambolic, but John Major was clearly capable of putting together at least a vaguely plausible government and had a very good Chancellor. And he hadn't lost a vote of confidence amongst his own MPs, or been rejected by his own cabinet.

    Labour 2017 is in a different league of shambolic, the likes of which are unknown in living memory. Possibly in recorded history.
    Will there be a final push from the PLP to ditch Jezza after the locals, that's the question...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Was looking at Chuck's constituency of Streatham the other day and saw that for the majority of it's existence (back to 1923) it was actually Conservative but went Labout in 1992 and became a Labour heartland seat in more recent elections.
    Lambeth voted 78% Remain so he has little to lose from this position
    The LDs got pretty close to winning Streatham in 2010. As you say the constituency used to be a fairly posh suburb in south London until 30 years ago.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Compare & contrast:

    Scotland in Union:

    As a non-party campaign, it is not our job to give advice on how to vote in the Election, but we hope as many people as possible will vote, exercising their democratic rights and doing their civic duty, helping to choose our representatives in the UK Parliament. We also hope that people will get involved in the campaign, supporting whichever political party or candidate they believe will be best for Scotland and for the UK. How voters exercise their choice, in support or opposition to one party or another, “tactically” or not over the issue of independence or any other issue, is a matter for them.

    http://www.scotlandinunion.co.uk/opinion

    Open Britain:

    Of the 20 MPs on the "attack list", 18 are Conservative, while just one MP on its support list is a Tory.

    A spokesman for Open Britain said: "It is understandable that during an election campaign political differences between members of different parties become magnified.

    "There is no way of getting involved in an election like this without campaigning for or against members of one party or another, so it was always going to disappoint some within a cross-party organisation."


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/remoaner-plot-oust-brexiteer-mps-unravels-tory-backers-ordered/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    AndyJS said:

    "I've been number crunching - and the next Parliament could be more pale, male and stale than ever

    Cathy Newman
    Channel 4 News Presenter"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/politics/number-crunching-next-parliament-could-pale-male-stale-ever/

    Eh, it's only a maybe at this point. It might be they do end selecting a lot of women in winnable seats.

    She doesn't mention if we will likely continue to have the gayest parliament in the world though.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Disraeli said:

    HYUFD said:
    Labour melting down, a la 1997 Tories. Falling apart over Europe. Personal manifestos being written. A total shambles.
    I'm old enough to remember when "Europe" was supposed to be the issue that destroyed the Tory Party.
    Still very possible dear boy. After this election it will be very clear who owns Brexit.

    An interesting piece here on the EU side of the talks:

    https://www.ft.com/content/74e5fe4b-b1e4-3f9c-9e9b-73316872e144
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Was looking at Chuck's constituency of Streatham the other day and saw that for the majority of it's existence (back to 1923) it was actually Conservative but went Labout in 1992 and became a Labour heartland seat in more recent elections.
    Lambeth voted 78% Remain so he has little to lose from this position
    The LDs got pretty close to winning Streatham in 2010. As you say the constituency used to be a fairly posh suburb in south London until 30 years ago.
    Yes, it was a sensible position for him to take given the seat he represents
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour voted in Wales on BBC news has switched to May 'she is absolutely wonderful, Mr Corbyn bye, bye!'

    Reminds me of the pictures of young girls fawning at the feet of The Fuhrer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Labour melting down, a la 1997 Tories. Falling apart over Europe. Personal manifestos being written. A total shambles.
    Yes, a clear commitment to the single market a la Chuka is becoming as important a virtue signal by Labour candidates as a clear commitment to keeping the pound was to Tory candidates in 1997, Corbyn dithering on Brexit as much as Major was then with his 'wait and see'
    Thing is, if Jezza was being true to himself and everything he's believed in for 40 years, he would be campaigning for a full Brexit... And would be in tune with his northern heartlands.

    It's the PLP that have split Labour, not Jezza.
    Problem is if Corbyn went out and out for hard Brexit he would probably fail to stem the May tide in the north but would lose half of his London seats to the LDs in the south
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    I just had a thought on party membership. We've seen how the LDs had a surge of new members after the 2015 disaster, an influx of members apparently worried the party would break and disappear. If labour are reduced to a sub 150 level, perilously close to a point where they could legitimately worry about their future recovery, and facing a resurgent and dominant Tory government, is it not likely they too will get a surge of new members?

    Now, maybe some of the Corbynista crowd will leave, depending on the direction of the party, but assuming they let membership lapse rather than actively leave, just hunk how large the party could become.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    edited April 2017
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour voted in Wales on BBC news has switched to May 'she is absolutely wonderful, Mr Corbyn bye, bye!'

    Reminds me of the pictures of young girls fawning at the feet of The Fuhrer.
    You need a better imagination.

    Edit - Oh, and I believe the response is..."Ken, us that you?"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    edited April 2017
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour voted in Wales on BBC news has switched to May 'she is absolutely wonderful, Mr Corbyn bye, bye!'

    Reminds me of the pictures of young girls fawning at the feet of The Fuhrer.
    With Spitting Image coming back perhaps we will have a repeat of their 1987 election closing credits 'Tomorrow belongs to me', goodnight!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReIAna459sg
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Clacton increasingly nailed on for the Tories.

    UKIP seem to have a pretty poor candidate pool:

    https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/856763465545003009
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Labour melting down, a la 1997 Tories. Falling apart over Europe. Personal manifestos being written. A total shambles.
    Yes, a clear commitment to the single market a la Chuka is becoming as important a virtue signal by Labour candidates as a clear commitment to keeping the pound was to Tory candidates in 1997, Corbyn dithering on Brexit as much as Major was then with his 'wait and see'
    Thing is, if Jezza was being true to himself and everything he's believed in for 40 years, he would be campaigning for a full Brexit... And would be in tune with his northern heartlands.

    It's the PLP that have split Labour, not Jezza.
    Problem is if Corbyn went out and out for hard Brexit he would probably fail to stem the May tide in the north but would lose half of his London seats to the LDs in the south
    I think he would lose both.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Was looking at Chuck's constituency of Streatham the other day and saw that for the majority of it's existence (back to 1923) it was actually Conservative but went Labout in 1992 and became a Labour heartland seat in more recent elections.
    Streatham was a Lab/LibDem marginal, pre-Coalition. The Europhile protestations are as much part of an attempt to make sure it doesn't end up that way again, as they are the opening salvos in the battle to lead whatever's left of the Labour Party post-June 8th.

    As regards the latter point, methinks the Corbynites might have something to say about that...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Labour melting down, a la 1997 Tories. Falling apart over Europe. Personal manifestos being written. A total shambles.
    It's much worse than the Tories in '97. They were indeed shambolic, but John Major was clearly capable of putting together at least a vaguely plausible government and had a very good Chancellor. And he hadn't lost a vote of confidence amongst his own MPs, or been rejected by his own cabinet.

    Labour 2017 is in a different league of shambolic, the likes of which are unknown in living memory. Possibly in recorded history.
    Will there be a final push from the PLP to ditch Jezza after the locals, that's the question...
    Parliament is dissolved the day before the local elections. There won't be a PLP to ditch Jezza.....

    http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/general-election-2017-timetable/
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    HYUFD said:
    Labour melting down, a la 1997 Tories. Falling apart over Europe. Personal manifestos being written. A total shambles.
    It's much worse than the Tories in '97. They were indeed shambolic, but John Major was clearly capable of putting together at least a vaguely plausible government and had a very good Chancellor. And he hadn't lost a vote of confidence amongst his own MPs, or been rejected by his own cabinet.

    Labour 2017 is in a different league of shambolic, the likes of which are unknown in living memory. Possibly in recorded history.
    I would certainly agree that, assuming the Labour Party does go down to a truly ruinous defeat, it may find itself in a worse position than the post-1997 Tories. John Major, lest we forget, still managed to hang on to just over 30% of the vote - he actually recorded almost precisely the same vote share as Ed Miliband in 2015. The Parliamentary Conservative Party was as badly eroded as it was only because of a combination of tactical voting and the vagaries of FPTP. But even so, much of its heartland actually remained intact.

    Labour, meanwhile, has lost Scotland, is losing its grip on Wales, has been almost wiped out in Southern England, apart from in London, and looks like it could poll 25% or maybe worse.

    Politics nowadays is very volatile and their exists in Brexit a possible catalyst - should it go wrong - for further political upheaval. So, perhaps - if Labour somehow manages to rid itself of the Far Left - it could return to relevance more quickly than anyone expects. Or maybe it will just wither away and be replaced by something else - who knows? The one thing I do know from recent political history is that it took both the post-1979 Labour Party and post-1997 Tories four general elections to regain a Parliamentary majority. We could be looking at a very long period of Conservative Government ahead.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Clacton increasingly nailed on for the Tories.

    UKIP seem to have a pretty poor candidate pool:

    https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/856763465545003009

    Ukip may be careering towards a Far Right, BNP position. If it manages to smear itself in enough dirt rapidly enough, the flow of voters defecting to the Tories could continue to gather pace.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856523884920700928

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856532252024602624

    People vote different in different sorts of elections - part 12,554 in an ongoing series.

    If Labour's performance in the local elections isn't as dreadful as the Westminster polls predict, this will be seized upon by the Party as evidence that the polls are wrong, and that recovery is still possible.

    Doom for any plot to unseat Corbyn, and just the sort of outcome Tories need to help them convince sceptical voters in the General Election that the Coalition of Chaos could still come to pass. Champagne all round - except for the Labour moderates.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    edited April 2017

    https://twitter.com/samgadjones/status/856832184459644928

    Makes complete sense.

    Given that the median age of the UK population as a whole is now just over 40 - and that, consequently, the median age of a voter can't be far off 50 - the Conservatives are at something of an advantage.

    See jezzas right it's a rigged system....Rigged by all the oldies that remember the 70s and run a mile when a bloke turns up and says let me take you back to that golden age.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856523884920700928

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856532252024602624

    People vote different in different sorts of elections - part 12,554 in an ongoing series.

    If Labour's performance in the local elections isn't as dreadful as the Westminster polls predict, this will be seized upon by the Party as evidence that the polls are wrong, and that recovery is still possible.

    Doom for any plot to unseat Corbyn, and just the sort of outcome Tories need to help them convince sceptical voters in the General Election that the Coalition of Chaos could still come to pass. Champagne all round - except for the Labour moderates.

    No, Labour moderates don't want any semblance of a leadership challenge pre June because it's recognised that it would indeed be pointless and provide a fig leaf for Momentum to argue that the blame for defeat is not Corbyn's. Corbyn is only going to go when forced out and that process will start immediately after 8th June. And the best prospect of that is for there to be no concerted challenge to Corbyn after 4th May, the moderates in the PLP continuing to bite their tongues collectively in order that every party member can see after 8th June that the blame for the defeat lies solely at Corbyn's door and nowhere else in the June 2017 leadership challenge which kicks off in the aftermath.

    Key statistic: YouGov, March 2017, only 20% of Labour members want Corbyn to stay after a GE defeat (of any magnitude). They didn't ask about the % who wanted Corbyn to stay following specifically an utterly disasterous defeat.

    It's about the long term now, that is it's about how to change Labour's fortunes for 2022. 2017 is written off.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    https://twitter.com/samgadjones/status/856832184459644928

    Makes complete sense.

    Given that the median age of the UK population as a whole is now just over 40 - and that, consequently, the median age of a voter can't be far off 50 - the Conservatives are at something of an advantage.

    See jezzas right it's a rigged system....Rigged by all the oldies that remember the 70s and run a mile when a bloke turns up and says let me take you back to that golden age.
    The different perceptions of Corbyn by age demographic are striking

    Up to job of being PM (net)
    18-24: 0
    65+ : -66

    Make Best PM - May vs Corbyn (net)
    18-24: -5
    65 + : +59
  • bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Farron sounds like he is in a right royal pickle over this gay shagging lark. Putting me off voting Liberal, truth be told. But May is also God Squad, I understand. Has anyone asked her whether she considers gay sex the work of Lord Beelzebub?

    I would be very interested in her answer, given the struggles Farron has had with it (and I know one Tory-considering-LD who has been put off by his answers to date, so what they'd do if May said the same things IDK)
    Go Green maybe but this is all ridiculous, gay marriage is legal and both Farron and May voted for it but as they are both practising Christians they cannot contradict Biblical teaching that any sex outside heterosexual marriage is a sin but then lots of things are sins that does not mean they are all going to be made illegal!
    Rubbish. Several tons of crap spouted by the bible is ignored at Christians' convenience. It is demonstrably possible to be religious and oppose much of the shite that surrounds it.
    To give Michael Gove (a christian) some credit (never thought I would say that!) - he had no problem saying straight away that gay sex was not a sin. Farron messed up here.
    He said it for political advantage, in terms of the religious definition of sin he was wrong
    How can he be 'wrong'? He was asked whether he consider gay sex to be a sin. He doesn't. The bible spouts lots of stuff that many Christians oppose. "Spare the rod, spoil the child." Those Christians who decline to beat their children are defying the 'good' book.
    Technically if you spoil your children too much you are also being sinful, yes
    That is not what the bible says! Spare the rod, spoil the child. If you don't beat your children you will spoil them! Do you hold that view? Does May? Does Farron?
    Most Christians in Britain are not literalists. The Bible is a very diverse, muti faceted work and contains many internal contradictions.
    Provide examples of the many internal contradictions.
  • bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Farron sounds like he is in a right royal pickle over this gay shagging lark. Putting me off voting Liberal, truth be told. But May is also God Squad, I understand. Has anyone asked her whether she considers gay sex the work of Lord Beelzebub?

    I would be very interested in her answer, given the struggles Farron has had with it (and I know one Tory-considering-LD who has been put off by his answers to date, so what they'd do if May said the same things IDK)
    Go Green maybe but this is all ridiculous, gay marriage is legal and both Farron and May voted for it but as they are both practising Christians they cannot contradict Biblical teaching that any sex outside heterosexual marriage is a sin but then lots of things are sins that does not mean they are all going to be made illegal!
    Rubbish. Several tons of crap spouted by the bible is ignored at Christians' convenience. It is demonstrably possible to be religious and oppose much of the shite that surrounds it.
    Not really, you can be a 'comes and goes' in the Cotswolds Christian like Cameron of course but if you are really religious as May and Farron are you have to accept the Biblical teachings and that includes the fact that sexual union should only take place in heterosexual marriage, not to be dishonest, not to be blasphemous, not to envy what others have, to honour your parents, to keep the Sabbath etc. That does not mean any of those actions should be against the law, although some teachings of the Bible are eg against theft and murder but you have to say they are sins as written in the Bible, the fact that does not go down well with 21st attitudes does not change that fact
    I would disagree. I am one of the PpBers that self describes as Christian, and attends church several times per month. I do not consider gay sex to be sinful. It is condemned in the Old Testament but is striking by its absence in New Testament teachings.

    Jesus condemns many things, principly hypocrisy, violence and greed, but is particularly harsh on those who rigidly apply scripture literally and without compassion. Anyone who has failed to notice this (including many Christian professors!) needs to do a bit more Bible study starting with Matthew!
    I didn't know you were Christian but thanks for giving us an excellent example! QED.
    Well, "self describes as Christian". But clearly hasn't read Romans chapter 1.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 911
    Rawlings and Thrasher tend to over estimate the Liberal Democrat performance. I would up the Cons by 3, Labour 1 and down grade Lib Dems to 17%, still their best for years.
This discussion has been closed.