politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are
Comments
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The question is how much of this is a reflection of the alternative, Corbyn? As he plans to stay on, it maybe a couple of years before we find out.GIN1138 said:
Theresa's personal ratings are pretty astonishing...CarlottaVance said:0 -
Is the book about the building of trumps golf course?CarlottaVance said:Cheeky.....
twitter.com/AIex_SaImond/status/8558462701409157130 -
Still better than many many private sector companies where workers can easily have had no pay rise at all in 8 or 9 years. Plus their pension gone.ab195 said:
Indeed. We used to move up x number of "spine" points and then the spine points were up-rated for inflation, like in the NHS, police, or army. But Osborne stopped that. I've only got 1% each year for years, other than inflation. So my current salary is worh nothing like what my equivalents' was 10 years ago in real terms.kle4 said:
Grades have been frozen too. At least, I haven't gone up one in years.Sandpit said:
Is it not still the case that a huge number of public sector employees automatically move up a 'grade' every year or two, so are not actually suffering from years of stangnant pay?kle4 said:
That'd be nice, but sorry Jezza, I just cannot vote for you just to get a pay rise.CarlottaVance said:
For example [Corbyn] will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.0 -
Sounds like the Scottish LibDems might be showing signs of life !CarlottaVance said:0 -
Yep. That was the high point of the 05-10 parliament for the Tories after which, Swwwwwwwwwwwiiiiiiiinnnnnngggggg baccccccccccccccckkkkkkkkkk occurred.ThreeQuidder said:
Good old Bouncy MORI. They were the ones with Tories 52% in 2008ish, right?GIN1138 said:
If there's one pollster that will put the Tories on 50%+ it's surely MORI...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Via Ben Walker from BritainElects:
YouGov tonight for the ST
Wales only YouGov on Monday
Ipsos Mori this week
Scotland only (pollster not given) for tomorrow's Sunday Post0 -
Beauty and the Beast was always going to top Jungle Book. I mean, that score by Alan Menken alone (particularly the transformation scene..)SeanT said:
Same. Didn't like Jungle Book, was therefore not looking forward to this.kle4 said:
I loved it (didn't like the Jungle Book remake). My young niece did not, but without her I'd not be able to see it.SeanT said:Has anyone else seen Beauty and the Beast? It's blood fabulous. Saw it with my older daughter today.
It's made a billion dollars making it the biggest movie musical of all time. And deservedly so.
http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/04/beauty-and-the-beast-billion-dollars
From my recollections I think they made Gaston even more villainous than the original cartoon.
It's superb. Funny, clever, visually amazing, great songs, brilliant ideas, and actually quite moving in places.0 -
second raters scrabbling to try and get on the gravy traincalum said:0 -
I have a feeling Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives will do better than expected.
I expect a level of soft SNP voters to move direct to SCon in some of the seats in which she is challenging, in addition to Unionist voter consolidation.0 -
Just like Gordon Brown's.........GIN1138 said:
Theresa's personal ratings are pretty astonishing...CarlottaVance said:0 -
Not really, Labour well down, tories/libd up, snp equal or a point or 2 down.RobD said:0 -
Spitting Image set to return to TV screens after more than two decades in new series made by US network behind Game of Thrones
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4435556/Spitting-Image-set-return-TV-screens.html0 -
Mile wide and inch...CarlottaVance said:
Just like Gordon Brown's.........GIN1138 said:
Theresa's personal ratings are pretty astonishing...CarlottaVance said:0 -
Because it would be a move to the right in Broxtowe ? ....GIN1138 said:
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...Sandpit said:
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.0 -
LOL, at best they may just have a pulse, no tandem required.calum said:
Sounds like the Scottish LibDems might be showing signs of life !CarlottaVance said:0 -
Is that a klaxon I head in the distance?Casino_Royale said:I have a feeling Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives will do better than expected.
I expect a level of soft SNP voters to move direct to SCon in some of the seats in which she is challenging, in addition to Unionist voter consolidation.0 -
Very nice thank you. Sun shone from dawn until dusk and got plenty done in the garden.malcolmg said:
Now chillaxing with a beer and some pretzels and waiting for Justin to have another PB Meltdown.0 -
I know a few folks who have moved from lifelong SLAB to SNP and now to SCON !Casino_Royale said:I have a feeling Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives will do better than expected.
I expect a level of soft SNP voters to move direct to SCon in some of the seats in which she is challenging, in addition to Unionist voter consolidation.0 -
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.CarlottaVance said:
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).0 -
No... Because he was very nice to me when I was going through a health problem a few years ago and he seems like a genuinely nice person (just like yourselfJackW said:
Because it would be a move to the right in Broxtowe ? ....GIN1138 said:
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...Sandpit said:
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.)
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They have a simple message - no Indyref2 & Brexit.Casino_Royale said:I have a feeling Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives will do better than expected.
I expect a level of soft SNP voters to move direct to SCon in some of the seats in which she is challenging, in addition to Unionist voter consolidation.
The SNP's is more challenging given over 40% of their voters were Leavers0 -
True, if I lived in Broxtowe I'd probably vote for Nick over Anna Sourpuss too.GIN1138 said:
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...Sandpit said:
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.0 -
The klaxon is becoming so loud I'm thinking of selling some PB-branded ear defenders.0
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Retreads rarely have anything new or interesting to say. Bring out the sheepdog.GIN1138 said:
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...Sandpit said:
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.0 -
Oooooooooooooo That's not very nice to our Dr Nick.matt said:
Retreads rarely have anything new or interesting to say. Bring out the sheepdog.GIN1138 said:
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...Sandpit said:
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.0 -
Anyone considering betting on the result in Ashfield should take note that the Jason Zadrozny saga is still dragging on . Two years ago the Lib Dem PPC ( now leader of Ashfield Independents ) was charged with 24 serious sex offences . At pre trial in January many of the most serious charges were dropped and the police were not in a position to prosecute charges at that time . The police were given until October to decide whether they want to continue with the prosecution . They are no doubt dragging things out as Zadrozny intends to seek legal redress against senior officers of Nottingham Police and Labour Party officials for collusion in bringing the original charges at a critical time immediately prior to the 2015 GE .0
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An element of spectacular sound judgement creeps into the final part of your post ....GIN1138 said:
No... Because he was very nice to me when I was going through a health problem a few years ago and he seems like a nice person (just like yourselfJackW said:
Because it would be a move to the right in Broxtowe ? ....GIN1138 said:
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...Sandpit said:
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.)
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Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.daodao said:
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.CarlottaVance said:
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).0 -
Yes, it was very well donejayfdee said:
My Grandson 6 cried when Gaston did what he did.( do not want to reveal the story too much, but we all know it).HYUFD said:
Yes, saw it a few weeks ago and it was excellent, biggest selling movie of 2017 so far (Dan Stevens who plays the Beast was also the year below me at school)SeanT said:Has anyone else seen Beauty and the Beast? It's bloody fabulous. Saw it with my older daughter today.
It's made a billion dollars making it the biggest movie musical of all time. And deservedly so.
http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/04/beauty-and-the-beast-billion-dollars
Grandson came home and said "I hate Gaston".
The animation took us to a new level, no wonder it has been so well received.0 -
You seem surprised? I don't only talk rubbish on here you know.JackW said:
An element of spectacular sound judgement creeps into the final part of your post ....GIN1138 said:
No... Because he was very nice to me when I was going through a health problem a few years ago and he seems like a nice person (just like yourselfJackW said:
Because it would be a move to the right in Broxtowe ? ....GIN1138 said:
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...Sandpit said:
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.)
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SNP have around 2,000 members a seat - will defend well and GOTV - 10 seats vulnerable - will be hard-fought - I'd expect SNP over 50 - 54/55 possibledaodao said:
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.CarlottaVance said:
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).0 -
I agree with PT. I'm expecting three Tory gains.Philip_Thompson said:
Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.daodao said:
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.CarlottaVance said:
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).0 -
I'd be astonished if they trouble the scorer - but for the amusement and delight of the Scottish journos covering the campaign, David Coburn is standing.BigRich said:
I would imagine that Scottish UKIP will struggle to find and put up candidates this time, and the 1% or whatever they got last time will switch strata to SCON, without much fuss.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:0 -
There may be 2 "Portillo moments" in the North East - look out for Moray (Angus Robertson) and Gordon (Alex Salmond). If they both fall, the SNP group at Westminster would be decapitated.Philip_Thompson said:
Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.daodao said:
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.CarlottaVance said:
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).0 -
Some SNP'ers who voted SNP in GE2015 for a strong Scottish voice in Westminster aren't necesarily independence supporters.CarlottaVance said:
They have a simple message - no Indyref2 & Brexit.Casino_Royale said:I have a feeling Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives will do better than expected.
I expect a level of soft SNP voters to move direct to SCon in some of the seats in which she is challenging, in addition to Unionist voter consolidation.
The SNP's is more challenging given over 40% of their voters were Leavers
Some SNP'ers will still be nationalists but prioritise Brexit/immigration control over Scottish independence in the EU or EEA, and none.
A chunk of Labour/LD unionists (not all) will swing behind the Scottish Conservatives to send a message on IndyRef too.
I could see a seat like Aberdeen South potentially being very close between SCon and the SNP, with the winner not having much more than 34-35% of the vote.0 -
I presume yougov will be out at 10pm?0
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That would require Labour to go to a negative vote total in Moray.HYUFD said:
Since 2015 general election SNP -7%, Tories + 17%, Labour -10%, LDs (unchanged). Tories would win 10 seats from the SNP including Moray where they would oust SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson (albeit it is a subsample), LDs would take 2 SNP seatsScott_P said:Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!
https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336
So well within the bounds of possibility at current rate.0 -
Would you like to bet on that positiondaodao said:
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.CarlottaVance said:
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).0 -
If I lived in Broxtowe, I would vote for anybody including Monster Raving Loony instead of Anna Soubry.Sandpit said:
True, if I lived in Broxtowe I'd probably vote for Nick over Anna Sourpuss too.GIN1138 said:
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...Sandpit said:
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
PS are the Loonys standing this time?0 -
You are claiming the police colluded with a political party - you might want to get the mods delete thatMarkSenior said:Anyone considering betting on the result in Ashfield should take note that the Jason Zadrozny saga is still dragging on . Two years ago the Lib Dem PPC ( now leader of Ashfield Independents ) was charged with 24 serious sex offences . At pre trial in January many of the most serious charges were dropped and the police were not in a position to prosecute charges at that time . The police were given until October to decide whether they want to continue with the prosecution . They are no doubt dragging things out as Zadrozny intends to seek legal redress against senior officers of Nottingham Police and Labour Party officials for collusion in bringing the original charges at a critical time immediately prior to the 2015 GE .
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Jack, thanks for book tips the other day , I got all four of them between ebay and Amazon , as you said 1715 was only one that cost a decent amount.JackW said:
An element of spectacular sound judgement creeps into the final part of your post ....GIN1138 said:
No... Because he was very nice to me when I was going through a health problem a few years ago and he seems like a nice person (just like yourselfJackW said:
Because it would be a move to the right in Broxtowe ? ....GIN1138 said:
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...Sandpit said:
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.)
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Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, right?
https://twitter.com/John2Win/status/8558582465062133840 -
For once an apposite metaphor - they're (virtually) the only ones with brains on the SNP benches - much as it would be fun there are bigger wastes of space - Nicholson & Wishart spring to mind, let-alone 'make it up as you go along' Cherry......daodao said:
There may be 2 "Portillo moments" in the North East - look out for Moray (Angus Robertson) and Gordon (Alex Salmond). If they both fall, the SNP group at Westminster would be decapitated.Philip_Thompson said:
Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.daodao said:
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.CarlottaVance said:
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).0 -
I see Yougov is now commissioned by the Times rather than the Sun. So I guess we won't get the ramping from Tom Newton Dunn that we got in 2015.FrancisUrquhart said:I presume yougov will be out at 10pm?
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That would be better than Balls.daodao said:
There may be 2 "Portillo moments" in the North East - look out for Moray (Angus Robertson) and Gordon (Alex Salmond). If they both fall, the SNP group at Westminster would be decapitated.Philip_Thompson said:
Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.daodao said:
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.CarlottaVance said:
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).0 -
Oh, I do love a dodgy Y axis.......ThreeQuidder said:Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, right?
https://twitter.com/John2Win/status/8558582465062133840 -
i remember tic toc - just before the truth came out that Labour were in retreatGeoffM said:
That's a beautiful way of typing "...were absolutely fictional partisan bollocks".GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.0 -
Indeed though the poll also showed a 7% direct swing from the SNP to the ToriesAlistair said:
That would require Labour to go to a negative vote total in Moray.HYUFD said:
Since 2015 general election SNP -7%, Tories + 17%, Labour -10%, LDs (unchanged). Tories would win 10 seats from the SNP including Moray where they would oust SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson (albeit it is a subsample), LDs would take 2 SNP seatsScott_P said:Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!
https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336
So well within the bounds of possibility at current rate.0 -
Errrr, as far as bar charts go that's worse than many LD ones, and what's really annoying is it does not need to be!!!!!!!ThreeQuidder said:Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, right?
https://twitter.com/John2Win/status/8558582465062133840 -
You still slavering at that 116 subsample and imagining it is accurate.CarlottaVance said:
For once an apposite metaphor - they're (virtually) the only ones with brains on the SNP benches - much as it would be fun there are bigger wastes of space - Nicholson & Wishart spring to mind, let-alone 'make it up as you go along' Cherry......daodao said:
There may be 2 "Portillo moments" in the North East - look out for Moray (Angus Robertson) and Gordon (Alex Salmond). If they both fall, the SNP group at Westminster would be decapitated.Philip_Thompson said:
Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.daodao said:
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.CarlottaVance said:
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).0 -
For those interested in a way round the French news blackout:
https://twitter.com/hdebonnevolonte/status/8558597227040890880 -
Doesn't quite fit the scansion of "Oh I do like to be beside the seaside"...CarlottaVance said:
Oh, I do love a dodgy Y axis.......ThreeQuidder said:Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, right?
https://twitter.com/John2Win/status/8558582465062133840 -
I thought it was You Gov but I could be wrongThreeQuidder said:
Good old Bouncy MORI. They were the ones with Tories 52% in 2008ish, right?GIN1138 said:
If there's one pollster that will put the Tories on 50%+ it's surely MORI...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Via Ben Walker from BritainElects:
YouGov tonight for the ST
Wales only YouGov on Monday
Ipsos Mori this week
Scotland only (pollster not given) for tomorrow's Sunday Post
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What a little scamp that tin tin is.CarlottaVance said:For those interested in a way round the French news blackout:
https://twitter.com/hdebonnevolonte/status/8558597227040890880 -
lol superbSandpit said:
https://twitter.com/David__Osland/status/851740438813954048TheScreamingEagles said:I've come up with a new term than saying Labour are going to get pounded like a dockside hooker.
It's not for the faint of heart or those eating.0 -
Worse? Don't you mean Better?BigRich said:
Errrr, as far as bar charts go that's worse than many LD ones, and what's really annoying is it does not need to be!!!!!!!ThreeQuidder said:Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, right?
https://twitter.com/John2Win/status/855858246506213384
Note the subliminal red tie too......0 -
Evening Malc - I have suggested previously that there maybe a move away from the SNP in the north east and borders. This election will either confirm or disprove that theorymalcolmg said:
You still slavering at that 116 subsample and imagining it is accurate.CarlottaVance said:
For once an apposite metaphor - they're (virtually) the only ones with brains on the SNP benches - much as it would be fun there are bigger wastes of space - Nicholson & Wishart spring to mind, let-alone 'make it up as you go along' Cherry......daodao said:
There may be 2 "Portillo moments" in the North East - look out for Moray (Angus Robertson) and Gordon (Alex Salmond). If they both fall, the SNP group at Westminster would be decapitated.Philip_Thompson said:
Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.daodao said:
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.CarlottaVance said:
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).0 -
I'm just back from Twickenham, and similar repsonse. Big remainers. Dr Tania Mathias seen as strong but some Cons saying have to vote for Lib Dem remainer Cable. Blues had 50 people out. odd thing was hardly any undecideds. That's rare 7 weeks out.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Time will tell but Libs have a chance.
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These polls are all very well but it's still weeks until the election. Six in fact. A lot can happen in that time.0
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Yes - it can get even worse for CorbynKentRising said:These polls are all very well but there is still weeks until the election. Six in fact. A lot can happen in that time.
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Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.0 -
who will be ramping it instead?tlg86 said:
I see Yougov is now commissioned by the Times rather than the Sun. So I guess we won't get the ramping from Tom Newton Dunn that we got in 2015.FrancisUrquhart said:I presume yougov will be out at 10pm?
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Le Pen's chances of winning?
1% or 40%?
Economist debate:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/04/france-s-presidential-election?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/francespresidentialelectionwhataremarinelepensoddsofvictory0 -
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Nothing wrong with Ms Soubry, are people anti because she is a remainer?.JackW said:
Of course but Labour have yet to select their candidate ....BigRich said:If I lived in Broxtowe, I would vote for anybody including Monster Raving Loony instead of Anna Soubry.
PS are the Loonys standing this time?
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I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.Sean_F said:
1935.murali_s said:Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.0 -
Please make this Labour's next party political broadcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n88IE2QKVuA0 -
Has a PPB ever contained the 'C-word' before?Casino_Royale said:Please make this Labour's next party political broadcast:
hps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n88IE2QKVuA0 -
Which streets are you on?TrueBlue said:
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.Sean_F said:
1935.murali_s said:Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.0 -
Not much to meltdown in Twickenham!TrueBlue said:
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.Sean_F said:
1935.murali_s said:Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.0 -
It's never more complicated: it's always the same reason.kle4 said:
It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.MarkSenior said:J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .
It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.tlg86 said:
Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?Bromptonaut said:
Immigration paperwork is heinously complicated. A specialist lawyer will charge about £500. It's a mistake to try and cut corners0 -
it's the whining about the referendumSquareRoot said:
Nothing wrong with Ms Soubry, are people anti because she is a remainer?.JackW said:
Of course but Labour have yet to select their candidate ....BigRich said:If I lived in Broxtowe, I would vote for anybody including Monster Raving Loony instead of Anna Soubry.
PS are the Loonys standing this time?0 -
I said this a few days ago on here! Where are my royalties?calum said:0 -
Neither of them are pleasant or particularly intelligent people.SquareRoot said:
Nothing wrong with Ms Soubry, are people anti because she is a remainer?.JackW said:
Of course but Labour have yet to select their candidate ....BigRich said:If I lived in Broxtowe, I would vote for anybody including Monster Raving Loony instead of Anna Soubry.
PS are the Loonys standing this time?
I'd really struggle to vote if I lived there.
Some sort of spoiled ballot covered in cartoon phalli, maybe.0 -
The next Labour PPB will - "Corbyn".Sandpit said:
Has a PPB ever contained the 'C-word' before?Casino_Royale said:Please make this Labour's next party political broadcast:
hps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n88IE2QKVuA
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No, but then C**byn hasn't been leader beforeSandpit said:
Has a PPB ever contained the 'C-word' before?Casino_Royale said:Please make this Labour's next party political broadcast:
hps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n88IE2QKVuA0 -
All party "oddballs" attract divisive comment.SquareRoot said:
Nothing wrong with Ms Soubry, are people anti because she is a remainer?.JackW said:
Of course but Labour have yet to select their candidate ....BigRich said:If I lived in Broxtowe, I would vote for anybody including Monster Raving Loony instead of Anna Soubry.
PS are the Loonys standing this time?0 -
Ha, nearly as offensive as the other one!No_Offence_Alan said:
The next Labour PPB will - "Corbyn".Sandpit said:
Has a PPB ever contained the 'C-word' before?Casino_Royale said:Please make this Labour's next party political broadcast:
hps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n88IE2QKVuA0 -
TrueBlue,TrueBlue said:
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.Sean_F said:
1935.murali_s said:Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.
Welcome to PB, and I'm glad you have seed that, there is a defiantly a risk that we on hear, commentators in general and everybody, gets so cared away with saying its a landslide!! that we stop thinking this though properly.0 -
Tories above 50%?KentRising said:These polls are all very well but it's still weeks until the election. Six in fact. A lot can happen in that time.
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When I was out with Blues today everyone was saying to MPs around us.."oh yes, everyone loves you" and then tweeting "great day blah blah blah." It was a 50/50 day, no more.BigRich said:
TrueBlue,TrueBlue said:
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.Sean_F said:
1935.murali_s said:Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.
Welcome to PB, and I'm glad you have seed that, there is a defiantly a risk that we on hear, commentators in general and everybody, gets so cared away with saying its a landslide!! that we stop thinking this though properly.
It might be a landslide, but 7 weeks is a long time.0 -
Coming from 3rd in every Edinburgh seat?daodao said:
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.CarlottaVance said:
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).0 -
You won't always pick up on it. The Tories in 1997 were convinced they weren't going to do too badly. Mitcham & Morden Conservatives expected to increase their majority based on canvassing. In fact they suffered an enormous defeat.TrueBlue said:
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.Sean_F said:
1935.murali_s said:Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.0 -
I hope it goes viral.Sandpit said:
Has a PPB ever contained the 'C-word' before?Casino_Royale said:Please make this Labour's next party political broadcast:
hps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n88IE2QKVuA0 -
Your view accords with my own, and is therefore clearly correct.TrueBlue said:
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.Sean_F said:
1935.murali_s said:Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.0 -
Nope was MORI that put Con on 52% in September 2008;SquareRoot said:
I thought it was You Gov but I could be wrongThreeQuidder said:
Good old Bouncy MORI. They were the ones with Tories 52% in 2008ish, right?GIN1138 said:
If there's one pollster that will put the Tories on 50%+ it's surely MORI...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Via Ben Walker from BritainElects:
YouGov tonight for the ST
Wales only YouGov on Monday
Ipsos Mori this week
Scotland only (pollster not given) for tomorrow's Sunday Post
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/mori0 -
We all act as information filters and being human sucome to confirmation bias at lest some of the time.TrueBlue said:
When I was out with Blues today everyone was saying to MPs around us.."oh yes, everyone loves you" and then tweeting "great day blah blah blah." It was a 50/50 day, no more.BigRich said:
TrueBlue,TrueBlue said:
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.Sean_F said:
1935.murali_s said:Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.
Welcome to PB, and I'm glad you have seed that, there is a defiantly a risk that we on hear, commentators in general and everybody, gets so cared away with saying its a landslide!! that we stop thinking this though properly.
It might be a landslide, but 7 weeks is a long time.
There is a real danger talking to people you agree with to much, which can be one of the big advantages of this site, but good as PB is its not totally immune form leaving you feeling overly/underly confidant.
Are the activists you are out with, mostly the same team form 2015 or have many left/joined?0 -
Earlier today I tipped the LDs in Cheadle at 14/1. Now 5/1 apparently.0
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That's not cheap, but OTOH it isn't really such a vast sum of money. If you've already found the funds to move yourself & your life here, that should be well within reach, I'd have thought. Less than 4 years' TV licences.Charles said:
It's never more complicated: it's always the same reason.kle4 said:
It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.MarkSenior said:J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .
It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.tlg86 said:
Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?Bromptonaut said:
Immigration paperwork is heinously complicated. A specialist lawyer will charge about £500. It's a mistake to try and cut corners0 -
That was the mistake opinion polls made two years ago.kle4 said:
Your view accords with my own, and is therefore clearly correct.TrueBlue said:
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.Sean_F said:
1935.murali_s said:Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.
More seriously, there could be massive regional, even constituency variation this time given all the factors in play. It is eminently posiisble Labour will gain seats in London and lose them in Yorkshire. I will be wary of anecdotes unless the person telling them has visited a variety of seats.0 -
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It depends where you are. The Labour vote is probably holding up okay in inner London, Manchester, Liverpool, etc. Not many marginals there.kle4 said:
Your view accords with my own, and is therefore clearly correct.TrueBlue said:
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.Sean_F said:
1935.murali_s said:Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.0